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Reep & Benjamin 1968, Skill and Chance in Association Football
Reep & Benjamin 1968, Skill and Chance in Association Football
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1968] 581
TABLE 1
Frequencyof r-passmovesin F.A. matchesand derivedvaluesof
Pr= 1-[[{P(r- 1)}/{P(r-2)}] {(l /pr,)- 1}i
t All involvingSheffield
Wednesday.
+ All involvingArsenal.
? One matchwentto extratime.
TABLE 2
Frequencyof r-passmovesin F.A. matches-negativebinomialtests
0 10,580 10,542 + 38 2,331 2,224 +107 3,407 3,341 +66 1,862 1,777 +85
1 6,923 7,075 -152 1,629 1,788 -159 2,320 2,407 -87 1,220 1,313 -93
2 3,611 3,542 +69 1,035 1,061 -26 1,435 1,428 +7 785 829 -44
3 1,592 1,572 +20 565 556 +9 767 786 -19 518 503 +15
4 608 653 -45 304 271 +33 422 415 +7 316 293 +23
5 280 260 +20 154 126 +28 215 215 0 153 165 -12
6 107 101 +6 60 57 +3 130 109 +21 78 93 -15
7 33 38 -5 31 25 +6 62 55 +7 65 52 +13
8 9 14 -5 15 11 +4 24 27 -3 27 29 -2
9andover 11 8 +3 6 10 -4 20 22 -2 39 31 +8
Total 23,754 23,805 6,130 6,129 8,802 8,805 5,063 5,085
Mean 1P00 1a303 1-348 1P558
Variance 1-495 2-109 2-519 3-286
p(x 2) > 10 <*0001 > 30 < 01
t InvolvingSheffield
Wednesdayon each occasion.
I InvolvingArsenalon each occasion.
? One matchwentto extratime.
1968] - Skill and Chancein Association
REEP AND BENJAMIN Football 583
TABLE 3
Passingmovedistributions
1953-67
No. of Frequency
Detail matches I
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+
1953-54Wolverhampton W. 12 *417 *299 *169 071 *029 009 004 *002
1955-56Miscellaneous 15 395 *295 *167 081 *036 *017 005 004
1955-56Sheffield
W. 42 *433 *297 *158 *068 027 *011 004 *002
1956-57Sheffield
W. 42 *443 297 *152 *064 *027 *010 005 *002
1956-57Miscellaneous 18 *446 *296 *145 *062 *029 *013 *006 003
1957-58Sheffield
W.t 42 445 *291 152 067 *025 013 005 *002
1957-58Miscellaneous 12 414 *284 *158 076 *036 018 007 007
1958 WorldCup 11 *384 *262 *161 090 *051 027 012 *013
1958-59Miscellaneous 33 *398 *290 *170 077 *036 *017 *008 004
1959-60Miscellaneous 41 395 *296 *159 *080 039 *017 007 007
1960-61Miscellaneous 38 *389 *266 *160 090 049 *025 *012 009
1960-61Tottenham H. 12 395 *259 *156 *092 049 *028 *012 009
1961-62TottenhamH. 12 *378 *260 *157 094 055 *031 *012 *013
1961-62Arsenalt 12 *380 *266 *169 *092 050 *025 *010 *008
1961-62Miscellaneous 42 *378 *262 *166 *092 *051 *028 *012 *011
1961-62Burnley 8 *384 *275 *175 *083 040 *022 *012 009
1962-63TottenhamH. 11 400 *251 *160 *092 050 *026 *012 009
1962-63Miscellaneous 42 *396 *268 *160 *086 045 *024 *012 009
1962-63Coventry 14 *434 *294 *151 *067 *032 *014 005 003
1962 WorldCup 18 330 *245 *170 *110 *066 *036 *020 *023
1963-64Miscellaneous 19 *391 *268 *153 *091 -047 *027 *013 *010
1964-65Miscellaneous 17 *366 *263 *167 093 *056 *025 *014 *016
1965-66Miscellaneoust 36 *387 *263 *163 *087 *048 *025 *015 *012
1966 WorldCupt 11 *368 *241 *155 *103 *062 030 *015 *026
1966-67Miscellaneous 18 *369 *231 *163 *102 057 033 *023 *022
All matches-Actual 578 394 *275 *162 *084 044 *022 *010 009
Expected+ *398 *275 *158 *084 043 *022 *011 009
A-E -004 - + 004 - +*001 - -*001
In thistablethefrequencydistributionshavebeenstandardizedto a totalfrequency
of unity. Theirgeneralsimilarityis striking.Taking all matchestogether, thefitto
the negativebinomialdistribution is almostexact,and thisis the patternadheredto
by mostof the seriesfrom1958 to 1967. Priorto 1958,thenegativebinomialis still
representativethoughthe parametersare those of the firstdistributionshown in
Table 2. Generaltimechangesin the styleof play would be expectedto affectthe
basic parametersof the distribution but not its mathematicalcharacter.
There are otherregularitiesto be observedin associationfootball,and some of
theseare shownin Table 4. If thepitchis dividedintofourquarterslaterallythenthe
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1968] REEP AND BENJAMIN- Skill and Chancein AssociationFootball 585