INDIA

Strategy
Politics JANUARY 25, 2019
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Elephant in the room. The ruling NDA coalition may need a different path to
government formation in the forthcoming general elections. Two recent opinion polls
on the 2019 general elections to be held in April-May predict that the NDA will fall
short of the required majority. We note that the BJP/NDA will have to contend with
(1) a revived INC in some states, (2) regional pre-poll alliances in others and (3) possible
anti-incumbency despite the unabated popularity of PM Modi.

Difficult for the BJP to reprise the 2014 template; recent surveys put BJP at around 200 seats QUICK NUMBERS

Two recent opinion polls (ABC-CVoter Survey and India Today-Karvy Survey) on the 2019  BJP has 153 out of
general elections (see Exhibit 1) and results of recent state elections suggest that the BJP will 171 seats in five
find it harder to repeat its phenomenal victory of 2014 and the ruling NDA coalition may need a core states
different path to 272+ seats compared to the 2014 elections. Both the opinion polls forecast
about 200 seats for the BJP and about 235 seats for the ruling NDA coalition. We note that the  BJP could lose 25-30
BJP has 153 of the 171 seats in Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar seats in CH, MP and
Pradesh (see Exhibit 2). (1) A revived INC (Congress) in Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan, (2) a Rajasthan
credible pre-poll alliance of BSP and SP in UP and (3) anti-incumbency may make it tougher for extrapolating 2018
BJP to replicate its 2014 performance in these five states.
state election
BJP faces a stronger INC in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan results

Our hypothetical exercise (see Exhibits 3-4) based on extrapolating the votes of BJP and INC in  BJP will need at
the assembly seats of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in the 2018 state assembly elections into least 200 seats to
their corresponding Lok Sabha constituencies shows that the BJP will likely win around 15 seats form the next
in Madhya Pradesh and around 10 seats in Rajasthan in the 2019 general elections, thereby government
notching 25 seats less than its cache in the 2014 general elections in these two states alone.
The risks could be accentuated if other smaller players were to support the INC in these two
states, given its recent upsurge, in a bid to thwart the BJP nationally. We would note that the
BJP’s vote share in rural Madhya Pradesh fell below the INC’s (see Exhibit 5). However, we note
that our exercise is purely hypothetical as issues relevant to the general and state elections may
be quite different.

Pre-poll alliance of BSP-SP in Uttar Pradesh will pose a strong challenge to the BJP

Our hypothetical exercise (see Exhibit 6) for Uttar Pradesh based on votes of the major parties in
the 2014 general elections shows even more intriguing possibilities. We club the votes of BSP
and SP together in each LS constituency to re-compute the votes of each party and ‘alliance’.
Our hypothetical exercise shows the BJP’s seats declining by about 35 (50%). We see a similar Sanjeev Prasad
sanjeev.prasad@kotak.com
‘outcome’ based on the vote shares of BJP and BSP + SP in the 2017 state assembly elections in Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0830
Uttar Pradesh (see Exhibit 7). The BSP and SP have fairly dedicated and separate voter bases.
Sunita Baldawa
Significantly more difficult for INC to reach 140-150 seats to form an INC-led UPA government sunita.baldawa@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0896
The two opinion polls suggest the INC winning about 110 seats and the UPA coalition 166-167
Anindya Bhowmik
seats. We find it implausible for the INC to cross 140-150 seats, which we believe would be anindya.bhowmik@kotak.com
necessary for an INC-led UPA-III government. The INC has 48 seats in the current Lok Sabha. Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0897

Even if it were to gain 10-15 seats each in MP, Maharashtra and Rajasthan at the cost of the
BJP and 20-30 seats elsewhere, it will likely not cross 120 seats without a major improvement in
Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and UP. It does not have much of a presence in Bihar and UP (with four
seats in these two states), which together account for 120 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha.

Kotak Institutional Equities Research

kotak.research@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0000

For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
India Strategy

Exhibit 1: Recent opinion polls predict the NDA falling short of majority
Seats projected for various coalitions as per latest opinion polls, January 2019

ABP-CVoter IndiaToday-Karvy
NDA 233 237
BJP 203
UPA 167 166
INC 109
Others 143 140

Source: Media reports, Kotak Institutional Equities

Exhibit 2: BJP had a virtual sweep in Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh in the
2014 elections
Current number of seats in Lok Sabha by state

Name of state Members BJP INC

Andhra Pradesh 25 2 —
Arunachal Pradesh 2 1 1
Assam 14 7 3
Bihar 40 22 2
Chhattisgarh 11 10 1
Goa 2 2 —
Gujarat 26 26 —
Haryana 10 7 1
Himachal Pradesh 4 4 —
Jammu and Kashmir 6 3 —
Jharkhand 14 12 —
Karnataka 28 15 9
Kerala 20 0 8
Madhya Pradesh 29 26 3
Maharashtra 48 22 2
Manipur 2 — 2
Meghalaya 2 — 1
Mizoram 1 — 1
Nagaland 1 — —
Odisha 21 1 —
Punjab 13 1 4
Rajasthan 25 23 2
Sikkim 1 — —
Tamil Nadu 39 1 —
Telangana 17 1 —
Tripura 2 — —
Uttar Pradesh 80 68 2
Uttarakhand 5 5 —
West Bengal 42 2 4
Name of UT
Andaman and Nicobar Islands 1 1 —
Chandigarh 1 1 —
Dadra and Nagar Haveli 1 1 —
Daman and Diu 1 1 —
Delhi 7 7 —
Lakshadweep 1 — 1
Puducherry 1 — 1
Total 543 272 48
Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, MP, Raj. and UP 171 153 8

Source: Lok Sabha, Election Commission, Kotak Institutional Equities

2 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Strategy India

Exhibit 3: 2019 general elections could see BJP lose a few seats from its 2014 tally in Madhya Pradesh
Constituency-wise outcome based on assembly election results in Madhya Pradesh versus actual general
election results
2014 general elections Hypothetical scenario
Constituency BJP INC Winner BJP INC Winner
Morena 375,567 184,253 BJP 384,382 511,224 INC
Bhind 404,474 244,513 BJP 357,341 456,833 INC
Gwalior 442,796 413,097 BJP 424,712 558,648 INC
Guna 396,244 517,036 INC 516,796 500,297 BJP
Rajgarh 596,727 367,990 BJP 525,481 634,687 INC
Sagar 482,580 361,843 BJP 563,447 483,903 BJP
Damoh 513,079 299,780 BJP 511,951 495,094 BJP
Tikamgarh 422,979 214,248 BJP 385,112 320,802 BJP
Khajuraho 474,966 227,476 BJP 533,070 443,968 BJP
Satna 375,288 366,600 BJP 399,890 352,774 BJP
Rewa 383,320 214,594 BJP 419,720 320,995 BJP
Sidhi 475,678 367,632 BJP 496,206 384,429 BJP
Shahdol 525,419 284,118 BJP 492,249 513,959 INC
Jabalpur 564,609 355,970 BJP 567,506 535,673 BJP
Mandla 585,720 475,251 BJP 537,657 659,345 INC
Balaghat 480,594 384,553 BJP 559,716 495,331 BJP
Hoshangabad 669,128 279,168 BJP 633,987 594,723 BJP
Chhindwara 443,218 559,755 INC 456,105 579,062 INC
Betul 643,651 315,037 BJP 597,653 638,329 INC
Vidisha 714,348 303,650 BJP 656,266 553,109 BJP
Bhopal 714,178 343,482 BJP 657,532 594,075 BJP
Dewas 665,646 405,333 BJP 620,753 660,624 INC
Khandwa 717,357 457,643 BJP 635,973 563,436 BJP
Khargone 649,354 391,475 BJP 576,858 586,430 INC
Ratlam 545,980 437,523 BJP 540,549 569,739 INC
Dhar 558,387 454,059 BJP 523,456 743,526 INC
Indore 854,972 388,071 BJP 814,334 719,204 BJP
Ujjain 641,101 331,438 BJP 592,028 522,106 BJP
Mandsour 698,335 394,686 BJP 662,250 584,657 BJP

Source: Election Commission, Kotak Institutional Equities

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3

India Strategy

Exhibit 4: BJP could lose several seats from its 2014 tally in Rajasthan in the 2019 general elections
Constituency-wise outcome based on assembly election results in Rajasthan versus actual general election
results
2014 general elections Hypothetical scenario
Constituency BJP INC Winner BJP INC Winner
Ganganagar 658,130 366,389 BJP 584,392 582,827 BJP
Bikaner 584,932 276,853 BJP 554,455 560,521 INC
Churu 595,756 176,912 BJP 515,863 545,501 INC
Jhunjhunu 488,182 254,347 BJP 499,888 585,343 INC
Sikar 499,428 260,232 BJP 507,647 592,667 INC
Jaipur Rural 632,930 300,034 BJP 602,769 640,393 INC
Jaipur 863,358 324,013 BJP 649,517 635,202 BJP
Alwar 642,278 358,383 BJP 339,877 377,029 INC
Bharatpur 579,825 334,357 BJP 402,150 474,121 INC
Karauli-Dholpur 402,407 375,191 BJP 447,022 598,661 INC
Dausa 315,059 181,272 BJP 409,900 465,441 INC
Tonk-Sawai Madhopur 548,537 413,031 BJP 386,109 598,564 INC
Ajmer 637,874 465,891 BJP 589,398 496,569 BJP
Nagaur 414,791 339,573 BJP 468,859 600,146 INC
Pali 711,772 312,733 BJP 479,306 388,836 BJP
Jodhpur 713,515 303,464 BJP 555,769 668,316 INC
Barmer 488,747 220,881 BJP 518,619 613,018 INC
Jalore 580,508 199,363 BJP 624,805 473,449 BJP
Udaipur 660,373 423,611 BJP 651,031 570,013 BJP
Banswara 577,433 485,517 BJP 499,473 510,955 INC
Chittorgarh 703,236 386,379 BJP 711,206 694,410 BJP
Rajsamand 644,794 249,089 BJP 508,820 473,414 BJP
Bhilwara 630,317 384,053 BJP 654,121 553,516 BJP
Kota 644,822 444,040 BJP 655,288 640,105 BJP
Jhalawar-Baran 676,102 394,556 BJP 707,519 685,595 BJP

Notes:
(a) We have adjusted the underlying assembly seats if one of the two major parties did not contest.

Source: Election Commission, Kotak Institutional Equities

Exhibit 5: BJP lost more votes in urban seats than rural; INC ahead in vote share in rural seats
Vote share of BJP and INC in 2013 and 2018 assembly elections

60 Rural Urban Total

50.3
50 44.8 46.1
42.7
39.3
41.2 40.7 41.8 41.0
40 36.7 35.3 36.3

30

20

10

0
BJP INC BJP INC
2013 2018

Source: Election Commission, Kotak Institutional Equities

4 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Strategy India

Exhibit 6: BJP would have won only 35 seats instead of 71 in 2014 had BSP and SP fought as an alliance
Constituency-wise outcome in actual and hypothetical scenarios of Lok Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh in 2014
Hypothetical scenario
Constituency BJP SP BSP INC Others Total votes Winner BSP+SP Winner
Agra 583,141 134,650 283,261 34,795 34,553 1,070,400 BJP 417,911 BJP
Akbarpur 481,379 146,938 202,500 96,800 43,758 971,375 BJP 349,438 BJP
Aligarh 514,554 226,284 227,884 62,674 32,961 1,064,357 BJP 454,168 BJP
Allahabad 313,465 251,569 161,891 102,414 62,247 891,586 BJP 413,460 BSP+SP
Ambedkar Nagar 432,074 234,455 292,669 22,774 52,432 1,034,404 BJP 527,124 BSP+SP
Amethi 300,747 — 57,716 408,650 107,512 874,625 INC 57,716 INC
Amroha 528,796 370,646 162,962 — 33,456 1,095,860 BJP 533,608 BSP+SP
Aonla 409,533 271,207 189,954 93,823 31,124 995,641 BJP 461,161 BSP+SP
Azamgarh 276,998 340,084 266,397 17,947 58,792 960,218 SP 606,481 BSP+SP
Badaun 331,807 498,008 156,866 — 40,913 1,027,594 SP 654,874 BSP+SP
Baghpat 423,108 213,557 141,672 — 225,926 1,004,263 BJP 355,229 BJP
Bahraich 432,286 336,696 96,883 24,418 43,980 934,263 BJP 433,579 BSP+SP
Ballia 359,329 220,089 141,471 13,486 207,836 942,211 BJP 361,560 BSP+SP
Banda 342,008 189,714 226,264 36,647 63,693 858,326 BJP 415,978 BSP+SP
Bansgaon 417,597 133,534 228,260 50,648 47,838 877,877 BJP 361,794 BJP
Barabanki 454,211 159,284 167,150 242,332 45,191 1,068,168 BJP 326,434 BJP
Bareilly 517,450 277,473 105,927 84,105 32,936 1,017,891 BJP 383,400 BJP
Basti 357,673 324,114 283,745 27,673 55,329 1,048,534 BJP 607,859 BSP+SP
Bhadohi 403,583 238,570 245,437 22,569 71,707 981,866 BJP 484,007 BSP+SP
Bijnor 485,625 280,957 229,683 — 64,081 1,060,346 BJP 510,640 BSP+SP
Bulandshahr 603,860 128,646 182,268 — 94,936 1,009,710 BJP 310,914 BJP
Chandauli 413,760 204,036 257,200 27,182 78,394 980,572 BJP 461,236 BSP+SP
Deoria 495,861 150,687 230,862 37,713 56,434 971,557 BJP 381,549 BJP
Dhaurahra 360,223 233,960 234,562 170,928 60,598 1,060,271 BJP 468,522 BSP+SP
Domariyaganj 298,845 174,778 195,257 88,117 178,030 935,027 BJP 370,035 BSP+SP
Etah 474,810 273,921 137,103 — 40,447 926,281 BJP 411,024 BJP
Etawah 438,762 266,321 192,437 13,369 28,715 939,604 BJP 458,758 BSP+SP
Faizabad 491,663 208,965 141,814 129,896 50,378 1,022,716 BJP 350,779 BJP
Farrukhabad 406,137 255,641 114,509 95,540 98,850 970,677 BJP 370,150 BJP
Fatehpur 485,360 179,590 298,524 46,550 46,664 1,056,688 BJP 478,114 BJP
Fatehpur Sikri 426,189 213,255 253,262 — 75,262 967,968 BJP 466,517 BSP+SP
Firozabad 420,502 534,573 118,906 7,447 23,178 1,104,606 SP 653,479 BSP+SP
Gautam Buddha Nagar 599,174 319,349 198,077 12,708 69,954 1,199,262 BJP 517,426 BJP
Ghaziabad 758,113 106,956 173,042 191,188 113,022 1,342,321 BJP 279,998 BJP
Ghazipur 306,791 274,337 241,542 18,904 145,099 986,673 BJP 515,879 BSP+SP
Ghosi 379,739 165,855 233,739 19,312 241,011 1,039,656 BJP 399,594 BSP+SP
Gonda 358,978 198,903 116,051 102,120 97,676 873,728 BJP 314,954 BJP
Gorakhpur 538,604 226,216 176,277 45,693 53,409 1,040,199 BJP 402,493 BJP
Hamirpur 453,866 187,095 176,355 78,229 79,695 975,240 BJP 363,450 BJP
Hardoi 360,473 276,542 279,158 23,298 33,425 972,896 BJP 555,700 BSP+SP
Hathras 544,252 180,889 217,887 — 106,245 1,049,273 BJP 398,776 BJP
Jalaun 548,457 180,856 261,360 82,896 35,597 1,109,166 BJP 442,216 BJP
Jaunpur 366,856 179,834 220,625 42,749 197,079 1,007,143 BJP 400,459 BSP+SP
Jhansi 575,683 385,360 213,728 84,062 61,971 1,320,804 BJP 599,088 BSP+SP
Kairana 565,071 329,013 160,262 — 64,978 1,119,324 BJP 489,275 BJP
Kaiserganj 380,984 303,091 146,542 57,383 55,357 943,357 BJP 449,633 BSP+SP
Kannauj 468,982 488,946 127,698 — 28,834 1,114,460 SP 616,644 BSP+SP
Kanpur 474,487 25,701 53,193 251,694 30,004 835,079 BJP 78,894 BJP
Kaushambi 331,480 288,643 201,191 31,881 57,219 910,414 BJP 489,834 BSP+SP
Kheri 398,563 160,110 288,301 183,940 46,954 1,077,868 BJP 448,411 BSP+SP
Kushi Nagar 369,917 111,218 132,811 284,378 52,122 950,446 BJP 244,029 BJP
Lalganj 324,004 260,912 233,961 21,832 57,946 898,655 BJP 494,873 BSP+SP
Lucknow 559,033 56,597 64,115 287,851 66,287 1,033,883 BJP 120,712 BJP
Machhlishahr 437,723 191,175 265,700 36,258 67,046 997,902 BJP 456,875 BSP+SP
Maharajganj 471,541 213,973 231,084 57,193 82,287 1,056,078 BJP 445,057 BJP
Mainpuri 231,117 595,455 142,728 — 29,965 999,265 SP 738,183 BSP+SP
Mathura 574,451 36,672 173,570 — 292,175 1,076,868 BJP 210,242 BJP
Meerut 531,898 211,573 300,267 42,799 26,847 1,113,384 BJP 511,840 BJP
Mirzapur 436,500 108,858 217,452 152,663 92,154 1,007,627 AD (BJP ally) 326,310 AD (BJP ally)
Misrikh 412,468 194,725 325,139 33,070 32,912 998,314 BJP 519,864 BSP+SP
Mohanlalganj 454,392 242,091 309,407 52,531 58,167 1,116,588 BJP 551,498 BSP+SP
Moradabad 484,023 397,482 160,650 19,663 66,147 1,127,965 BJP 558,132 BSP+SP
Muzaffarnagar 649,938 160,532 251,528 12,746 32,690 1,107,434 BJP 412,060 BJP
Nagina 367,683 275,400 245,627 — 53,486 942,196 BJP 521,027 BSP+SP
Phulpur 503,011 195,082 163,578 58,090 40,580 960,341 BJP 358,660 BJP
Pilibhit 546,815 239,850 196,249 29,165 38,468 1,050,547 BJP 436,099 BJP
Pratapgarh 375,099 119,931 207,182 138,232 54,012 894,456 AD (BJP ally) 327,113 AD (BJP ally)
Rae Bareli 173,716 — 63,633 526,433 61,354 825,136 INC 63,633 INC
Rampur 358,590 335,179 81,004 156,466 25,150 956,389 BJP 416,183 BSP+SP
Robertsganj 378,095 135,916 187,652 86,234 97,976 885,873 BJP 323,568 BJP
Saharanpur 472,261 52,736 234,699 407,816 26,796 1,194,308 BJP 287,435 BJP
Salempur 391,636 159,453 159,580 41,839 102,241 854,749 BJP 319,033 BJP
Sambhal 359,678 354,774 252,370 16,016 74,164 1,057,002 BJP 607,144 BSP+SP
Sant Kabir Nagar 348,884 240,167 250,910 22,029 149,659 1,011,649 BJP 491,077 BSP+SP
Shahjahanpur 524,025 242,646 289,182 26,974 47,014 1,129,841 BJP 531,828 BSP+SP
Shrawasti 345,872 259,986 194,827 20,000 158,953 979,638 BJP 454,813 BSP+SP
Sitapur 417,215 156,078 366,333 29,092 58,254 1,026,972 BJP 522,411 BSP+SP
Sultanpur 410,317 228,129 231,428 41,983 53,124 964,981 BJP 459,557 BSP+SP
Unnao 518,039 208,485 199,871 196,754 78,454 1,201,603 BJP 408,356 BJP
Varanasi 580,423 45,266 60,534 75,541 268,921 1,030,685 BJP 105,800 BJP

Source: Election Commission, Kotak Institutional Equities

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 5

India Strategy

Exhibit 7: BJP could possibly win only 30 seats in UP based on vote share of 2017 assembly elections and BSP and SP as alliance partners
Constituency-wise outcome based on assembly election results in Uttar Pradesh versus actual general election results
Hypothetical scenario
Constituency BJP SP BSP INC Others Total votes Winner BSP+SP Winner
Agra 579,063 207,041 299,253 39,434 44,861 1,169,652 BJP 506,294 BJP
Akbarpur 512,509 215,033 213,219 59,162 39,690 1,039,613 BJP 428,252 BJP
Aligarh 572,706 213,089 248,913 55,861 83,948 1,174,517 BJP 462,002 BJP
Allahabad 406,236 242,308 160,890 48,776 84,972 943,182 BJP 403,198 BJP
Ambedkar Nagar 377,525 313,626 343,046 — 78,352 1,112,549 BJP 656,672 BSP+SP
Amethi 346,234 137,076 187,284 237,216 62,637 970,447 INC 324,360 INC
Amroha 447,748 348,118 259,517 — 82,038 1,137,421 BJP 607,635 BSP+SP
Aonla 416,030 265,756 262,836 32,243 90,739 1,067,604 BJP 528,592 BSP+SP
Azamgarh 203,120 354,849 305,562 — 113,968 977,499 SP 660,411 BSP+SP
Badaun 401,167 384,795 209,456 — 110,883 1,106,301 SP 594,251 BSP+SP
Baghpat 414,748 162,145 198,091 19,091 231,100 1,025,175 BJP 360,236 BJP
Bahraich 460,173 189,314 187,441 113,328 56,388 1,006,644 BJP 376,755 BJP
Ballia 350,501 215,259 270,111 9,910 141,572 987,353 BJP 485,370 BSP+SP
Banda 427,122 115,123 229,115 120,152 104,479 995,991 BJP 344,238 BJP
Bansgaon 374,397 169,437 238,109 50,965 92,932 925,840 BJP 407,546 BSP+SP
Barabanki 473,013 313,747 271,425 81,883 61,492 1,201,560 BJP 585,172 BSP+SP
Bareilly 506,592 127,186 151,954 199,274 87,048 1,072,054 BJP 279,140 BJP
Basti 432,895 164,925 277,955 111,885 56,646 1,044,306 BJP 442,880 BSP+SP
Bhadohi 209,062 288,213 289,184 — 277,781 1,064,240 BJP 577,397 BSP+SP
Bijnor 443,855 235,189 255,948 82,064 77,294 1,094,350 BJP 491,137 BSP+SP
Bulandshahr 563,542 118,906 291,436 53,525 92,462 1,119,871 BJP 410,342 BJP
Chandauli 341,629 317,488 272,906 — 148,454 1,080,477 BJP 590,394 BSP+SP
Deoria 396,603 212,364 150,553 61,211 176,246 996,977 BJP 362,917 BJP
Dhaurahra 448,251 272,439 272,005 59,082 61,639 1,113,416 BJP 544,444 BSP+SP
Domariyaganj 318,381 270,264 234,492 4,148 141,607 968,892 BJP 504,756 BSP+SP
Etah 434,544 282,378 189,018 — 93,769 999,709 BJP 471,396 BSP+SP
Etawah 416,178 294,526 258,361 — 52,256 1,021,321 BJP 552,887 BSP+SP
Faizabad 497,532 310,219 237,040 — 60,288 1,105,079 BJP 547,259 BSP+SP
Farrukhabad 485,800 302,426 168,249 — 64,132 1,020,607 BJP 470,675 BJP
Fatehpur 437,229 162,671 199,994 95,524 176,390 1,071,808 BJP 362,665 BJP
Fatehpur Sikri 514,510 136,365 274,828 54,400 100,554 1,080,657 BJP 411,193 BJP
Firozabad 492,120 366,268 198,607 — 67,062 1,124,057 SP 564,875 BSP+SP
Gautam Buddha Nagar 631,071 120,550 300,747 93,059 74,596 1,220,023 BJP 421,297 BJP
Ghaziabad 725,793 114,088 305,352 201,693 86,712 1,433,638 BJP 419,440 BJP
Ghazipur 305,069 336,146 316,572 — 141,345 1,099,132 BJP 652,718 BSP+SP
Ghosi 306,414 228,149 398,118 56,823 137,300 1,126,804 BJP 626,267 BSP+SP
Gonda 403,115 207,364 220,669 2,746 118,059 951,953 BJP 428,033 BSP+SP
Gorakhpur 452,495 187,143 217,710 120,273 149,281 1,126,902 BJP 404,853 BJP
Hamirpur 527,262 173,483 233,366 84,972 71,335 1,090,418 BJP 406,849 BJP
Hardoi 444,766 235,626 286,355 51,819 52,320 1,070,886 BJP 521,981 BSP+SP
Hathras 484,841 143,404 322,960 48,235 144,613 1,144,053 BJP 466,364 BJP
Jalaun 520,054 187,334 275,645 102,908 102,607 1,188,548 BJP 462,979 BJP
Jaunpur 253,164 183,714 266,486 137,328 201,715 1,042,407 BJP 450,200 BSP+SP
Jhansi 629,724 277,528 297,904 94,413 67,125 1,366,694 BJP 575,432 BJP
Kairana 432,569 159,529 208,225 192,101 138,658 1,131,082 BJP 367,754 BJP
Kaiserganj 462,722 292,428 205,491 4,239 58,120 1,023,000 BJP 497,919 BSP+SP
Kannauj 480,111 381,506 245,629 — 32,344 1,139,590 SP 627,135 BSP+SP
Kanpur 427,715 149,977 74,157 200,709 15,983 868,541 BJP 224,134 BJP
Kaushambi 340,720 86,135 210,682 45,597 309,053 992,187 BJP 296,817 BJP
Kheri 583,671 271,775 219,477 48,841 59,509 1,183,273 BJP 491,252 BJP
Kushi Nagar 377,182 179,192 217,288 41,162 200,315 1,015,139 BJP 396,480 BSP+SP
Lalganj 304,497 292,325 301,261 — 50,122 948,205 BJP 593,586 BSP+SP
Lucknow 511,306 296,901 147,941 68,858 29,568 1,054,574 BJP 444,842 BJP
Machhlishahr 328,870 249,765 255,424 48,189 144,107 1,026,355 BJP 505,189 BSP+SP
Maharajganj 488,708 102,108 216,770 172,179 164,575 1,144,340 BJP 318,878 BJP
Mainpuri 363,633 459,717 156,398 — 35,651 1,015,399 SP 616,115 BSP+SP
Mathura 502,718 8,893 252,388 62,253 303,580 1,129,832 BJP 261,281 BJP
Meerut 495,345 183,017 267,674 178,293 44,443 1,168,772 BJP 450,691 BJP
Mirzapur 429,160 176,484 252,023 59,919 218,518 1,136,104 AD (BJP ally) 428,507 AD (BJP ally)
Misrikh 437,413 310,100 269,645 — 51,658 1,068,816 BJP 579,745 BSP+SP
Mohanlalganj 368,621 368,901 353,720 — 147,398 1,238,640 BJP 722,621 BSP+SP
Moradabad 442,109 400,014 179,029 68,920 139,777 1,229,849 BJP 579,043 BSP+SP
Muzaffarnagar 470,357 370,222 193,395 — 82,055 1,116,029 BJP 563,617 BSP+SP
Nagina 386,243 288,968 230,560 53,493 50,851 1,010,115 BJP 519,528 BSP+SP
Phulpur 358,382 239,080 226,370 55,013 134,967 1,013,812 BJP 465,450 BSP+SP
Pilibhit 581,918 292,887 174,692 62,502 69,226 1,181,225 BJP 467,579 BJP
Pratapgarh 206,439 157,628 188,010 140,004 245,489 937,570 AD (BJP ally) 345,638 AD (BJP ally)
Rae Bareli 278,639 91,895 216,017 312,944 103,410 1,002,905 INC 307,912 INC
Rampur 348,520 369,137 228,120 76,741 32,830 1,055,348 BJP 597,257 BSP+SP
Robertsganj 379,185 188,526 261,680 46,090 161,017 1,036,498 BJP 450,206 BSP+SP
Saharanpur 431,484 182,595 312,448 246,511 42,635 1,215,673 BJP 495,043 BSP+SP
Salempur 273,980 268,757 193,323 — 172,252 908,312 BJP 462,080 BSP+SP
Sambhal 413,247 373,101 252,258 59,337 110,916 1,208,859 BJP 625,359 BSP+SP
Sant Kabir Nagar 382,467 230,432 262,028 4,653 155,123 1,034,703 BJP 492,460 BSP+SP
Shahjahanpur 538,112 339,891 243,331 76,065 59,967 1,257,366 BJP 583,222 BSP+SP
Shrawasti 356,800 219,905 231,751 108,178 137,578 1,054,212 BJP 451,656 BSP+SP
Sitapur 434,484 270,640 283,658 67,102 60,669 1,116,553 BJP 554,298 BSP+SP
Sultanpur 369,058 202,146 256,004 32,042 138,596 997,846 BJP 458,150 BSP+SP
Unnao 571,060 249,547 326,989 84,070 80,886 1,312,552 BJP 576,536 BSP+SP
Varanasi 461,071 116,573 118,802 217,132 160,843 1,074,421 BJP 235,375 BJP

Source: Election Commission, Kotak Institutional Equities

6 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Disclosures

"Each of the analysts named below hereby certifies that, with respect to each subject company and its securities for which
the analyst is responsible in this report, (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views
about the subject companies and securities, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or
indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report: Sanjeev Prasad, Sunita Baldawa,
Anindya Bhowmik."

Kotak Institutional Equities Research coverage universe

Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
Percentage of companies covered by Kotak Institutional
70%
Equities, within the specified category.

60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which Kotak
Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has provided
50%
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.

40% * The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We

expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the
29.1% 29.6% next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to deliver 5-15%
30%
returns over the next 12 months; Reduce = We expect this stock
22.2% to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months; Sell = We
19.2%
20% expect this stock to deliver less than -5% returns over the next
12 months. Our target prices are also on a 12-month horizon
basis. These ratings are used illustratively to comply with
10%
3.9% applicable regulations. As of 31/12/2018 Kotak Institutional
1.5% 1.0% 0.0% Equities Investment Research had investment ratings on 203
0% equity securities.
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities As of December 31, 2018

Ratings and other definitions/identifiers

Definitions of ratings

BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.

ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.

REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.

SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.

Our Fair Value estimates are also on a 12-month horizon basis.

Other definitions

Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.

Other ratings/identifiers

NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.

CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.

NC = Not Covered. Kotak Securities does not cover this company.

RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.

NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.

NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 7

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