Overview

Estimasi Cadangan Minerba

PPSDM Geominerba
10 Juni 2020
 Andre Alis
• S1 (Mining Engineering ITB) 1982 -1988, MBA (SBM ITB) 2018 - 2020
• 1988 – 1993, KPC (No. peg. 59), Mine Planning Engineer, etc.
• 1993 – 1995, Vietmindo (anthracite, North Vietnam), Development Manager
• 1995 - now, Independent Consultant/ Adviser - Mining Engineering & Business
• 1997 – 2004, Business Development & Project Management (Palm oil Refinery
project, Oil& Gas Facility construction, etc.)
• 2005 – now, Adviser/ Facilitator - Mining Competency Development
Facilitator - various Mine Planning related activities, KCMI Code, etc.
• 2006 - now, Lecturer – Teknik Tambang Trisakti (MTT 6219 Mining Project Development)
• 2007 - now, Audit Committee dan Risk Oversight Committee - Mining Companies
• Professional Membership :
• PERHAPI (1992 - ), (Mar 2016 – Mar 2019) Chairman for CP Committee PERHAPI
• IKAI (2007 -, CACP No 1009), PII (2006 - , IPM No 2-14-00-000036-00), (2019 - :
Member of SOMP – Society of Mining Professor, No. 5019)
• 2008 – now, Competency Assessor, BNSP, No. reg. MET.000.001648 2008 A
• 2012 – now, CPI Coal Reserves Reporting, No. reg. 9200467.009
• 2019 – now, Learning Propensity Assessment Device (LPAD), Assessor No. reg. 53417
 Agenda

Prolog
A. Dasar Estimasi Cadangan Minerba

B. Estimasi Cadangan Mengacu Panduan Pelaporan

C. Potensi Pengaruh Covid19 Terhadap Estimasi Cadangan

#)slide dipresentasikan tidak terinci atau di-skip, namun

diharapkan menjadi referensi untuk pendalaman materi
 Prolog : today’s focus

• Cadangan Minerba Nasional

(resources governance, sustainable development, mining
policy, mineral economics, ekonomi makro, dll.)

• Cadangan Minerba Perusahaan

(concept of mining economics, methodology of mine
planning, “senggol” mining corporate sustainability, dll)
 SUMBER DAYA DAN CADANGAN MINERAL STRATEGIS #)
RESOURCES RESERVES
(MILLION TON) (MILLION TON)
NO Type
ORE METAL ORE METAL

Primary
1 7.670 0,007 3.225 0,003
Gold

2 Bauxite 1.265 529,3 583 238

3 Nickel 3.565 52,2 1.168 22

4 Copper 17.526 106,2 3.126 28

5 Iron 712 401,8 66 40

6 Iron Sand 2.117 425,4 174 25

7 Manganese 15 6,3 4 3
Ferro and Associates : Fe, Nickel, Cobalt, Chromit , Mangan,
Molibdenum, Titanium 8 Zinc 625 7,3 6 0,8
Precious Metal : Gold, Silver, Platinum 9 Tin 449 2,1 801 0,4
Base Metal : Zinc, Copper, Tin, Lead, Mercury 10 Silver 13.755 0,8 3.253 0,0
Light and Rare metal : Bauxite, Monasit Source : Geology Agency, MEMR, 2013

Ref. Ditjen Minerba, 2014

Ilustr. : Tabel Sumberdaya & Cadangan Timah#)
Ilustrasi : Tabel Cadangan Batubara Thermal #)

Lokasi Satuan Terbukti Terkira

Tambang X Juta Ton 53,1 17,9

Parameter Unit Terbukti Terkira

Total moisture %, AR 48,70 48,77
Inherent moisture %, adb 13,64 13,71
Ash content %, adb 6,05 5,75
Volatile matters %, adb 43,15 43,35
Fixed carbon %, adb 36,99 37,06
Total sulfur %, adb 0,41 0,4
Calorific value Kcal/Kg, ar 3.141 3.152
A. Dasar Estimasi Cadangan Mineral
 (?)why
eksploitasi dibatasi?
(mining limit)

Ex- Open Pit Gunung Kik Karak- Belitung

(?)
Apakah ada
bahan galian
yang tidak di-
eksploitasi?

Ref Internet
download
 (?)why
tidak semua mineral
dirancang
untuk di-eksploitasi
(?)Why
Ada mineral
yang ditinggal?
Ilustrasi Konsep Keekonomian Tambang #)

Yang dirancang
untuk di-eksploitasi
@ final pit limit design
= Cadangan

(ref. SNI 4726/ SNI 5015/

Kode2 Pelaporan Publik)
Cadangan =
mineable =
bagian sumberdaya
layak teknis + lingkungan
yang
dapat-ditambang
secara-ekonomis economically =
layak ekonomis
 Ilustrasi Konsep Layak Teknis -LH #)

di dalam pit design, yang akan melalui

Produk akhir
sejumlah serangkaian proses
di
mineral Insitu mining value chain
Lokasi jual
di Lokasi Tambang @ finite future time-frame
(life of mine)
Mine Planner to Master the Mining Value Chain #)

Adapted from
Porter’s ref. Juan Camus, 2011
value chain model
(1985)
 Ilustrasi Kegiatan Penambangan
(Bagian Produksi dari Proses Mining Value Chain)

Pproduk,
point of sale
Revenue
match
cost

Ref. ptfi.co.id
 Ilustrasi Kegiatan Penambangan #)
(Bagian Produksi dari Proses Mining Value Chain)

Pproduk,
point of sale
Revenue
match
cost

Ref. Website
 (Hustrulid, 2013)
Ore : A natural aggregation of
one or more solid minerals that
can be mined, processed and
Further Elaboration: sold at a profit

Cadangan Economically Mineable (1/2)

(Brett King, 2009, 2018)
Optimal Mining Principles

(?)How to
ensure, layak
Teknik + Sosial-Enviro
&
Ekonomis
Cadangan Miner-ba =
Indikator keekonomian
Prospek/ Proyek Tambang

• (Test-1) How? yakin ‘dapat-ditambang’ • (Test-2) How? yakin ‘secara-ekonomis’

• Tonase bahan galian, di dalam pit design,
dari lokasi tambang (insitu) - melalui mining
value chain - ke tempat penjualan (produk
akhir), sesuai skedul produksi
(+ dampak terhadap lingkungan hidup &
sosial dapat dikelola); atau
• Skedul produksi dapat direalisasikan
(?) apakah
udah ekonomis
• Model finansial dibentuk berdasarkan
skedul produksi dan drivers of revenue &`
cost; dan
• Hasil analisis keekonomian atas model
finansial menunjukkan kriteria
pengembalian investasi dan pertumbuhan
aset, terpenuhi.
What the Games Are #)

(?) 2. How
(?)1. How Menentukan
Me-model-kan & Batas-tambang
menentukan or
batas-Sumberdaya Meng-Estimasi
or cadangan
Meng-Estimasi
Sumberdaya
w/ Implementasi
w/ Resources Metodologi
modelling & Mine Planning
estimation (Economically
(RPEEE) Mineable)

a measure of a measure of
mineralization recoverable ore

adapt.fr. Odwyn Jones, 2020

 B. Estimasi Cadangan
Mengacu Panduan Pelaporan
 Panduan Pelaporan HE – S/d – C/d (a.l.)
1. Panduan Pelaporan
1. Standar Nasional Indonesia
1. SNI 4726:2019 … pelaporan mineral
2. SNI 5015: 2019 … pelaporan batubara
2. Publik, principles based code
1. Anggota CRIRSCO
2. 14 negara dan 1 kode untuk Eropah
3. Kode KCMI, Kode JORC, dll

2. SKKNI
(~ standar kompetensi pelaku pelaporan)
1. SKKNI No. 98/ 2019 … pelaporan hasil eksplorasi
2. SKKNI No. 88/2019 … pelaporan sumberdaya
3. SKKNI No. 40/2019 … pelaporan cadangan
Apa yang dilaporkan?
Estimasi & Klasifikasi:
 Tonase; and
 Kadar atau kualitas
#) Kerangka Kerja Pelaporan HE – S/d – C/d

Akurasi tinggi,
dasar pembiayaan
Triple-Bottom-Line komersialisasi proyek

Metodologi Mine Planning,

mengkonversi  Teknis
Sumberdaya Cadangan,
 Sosial - LH
 Ekonomis Adapt. Kode KCMI : 2017, ps. 11++
dgn mempertimbangkan (dan Kode2 CRIRSCO),
10 faktor pengubah SNI 4726/ 5015, fig. 1
 Siklus Ideal Tahap Pengembangan Tambang#)

Eksplorasi
bertahap
NO-Go
Kegiatan Eksplorasi dan
Go Feasibility Study,
menghasilkan:
Feasibility Study  Laporan Hasil Eksplorasi
(Tech., Enviro. & Econ).  Laporan Sumberdaya
 Laporan Cadangan
NO-Go

Go Cadangan Terbukti

Commercial

? Apakah semua
“tanah kosong,
berprospek miner-ba”
menjadi Ref. Mineral Ed, BC, Canada
tambang komersial (modified)
 Exploration Success Ratio

S/d C/d

Catatan Ref. Majoriebanks, 1997

https://rogermarjoribanks.info/empirical-
C : untuk kualitas conceptual studies terbaik conceptual-exploration-improve-exploration-
success-rate/
 Tahapan Pengembangan Tambang #) Perlu Dana
Keputusan Investasi untuk Justifikasi Keberlanjutan Proyek
Development phase
• Preliminary exploration Alternatif sumber dana
• Internal corporate budget
• Project discovery Investor
• Equity financing
• Resource definition & various stages • Debt financing Kreditor
of Scoping study(s) Investor/
• Alternative financing Kreditor
• ‘Eksplorasi-1’ Go NO-Go Ref. pwc, 2013
Prev.
• Pre-Feasibility study Tahap

• ‘Eksplorasi-2’ Go NO-Go
Study NO-Go
• Feasibility study
• Project financing Go NO-Go
Go
(Next Tahap)
Go Project development

(Expansion, M&A) Operations ?WHY

NO-Go Opportunity:
Investor/ Kreditor
“ngasih” dana Economic gain
Closure and reclamation. versus
Technical studies Risk “-”
Adapt. Nethery, AMEC, 2003
Keputusan investasi
 BV > 0,
Apakah
layak ekonomis?
Ilustrasi: What?
Formula Dasar of Keekonomian Tambang Time Value of
#) Prinsip

Money
Mulut
tambang

• BV = Block value in $ ? ?
• P = Commodity price in $ per recovered metal unit
• S = “Selling cost” in $ per recovered metal unit
• R = overall metal recovery (fraction)
• G = block grade
• H = “Process cost” in $ per ore tonne
• O = Ore tonnes
• M = “Mining cost” in $ per rock tonne
• T = Rock tonnes
Nilai jualan
di
Mulut tambang
Ongkos s/d
di
Mulut Tambang
adjust. Elkington 2019
 What are Metodologi dan Praktik ? #)

dapat di-representasi
• Methodology (metodologi) Dengan Flowchart
(Bristish Dictionary)
the system of methods and principles used in a particular discipline

Atau (bisa juga) a series of rules, techniques, or procedures for

accomplishing a certain task (serangkaian aturan, teknik, atau
prosedur untuk menyelesaikan suatu tugas tertentu)

• Best practices (praktik terbaik)

(Cambridge Dictionary)
a working method or set of working methods that is officially accepted as
being the best to use in a particular business or industry
(suatu metoda kerja atau kumpulan metoda kerja yang diakui atau
diterima sebagai yang terbaik untuk digunakan dalam bisnis atau
industri tertentu)
 ? How about:
• Improvement
• Innovation
• Disruption
• 4.0

Ilustrasi : Suatu Framework Mine Planning

Entrepreneuship

External factor Estimated optimal

• Price, market values (NPV) to the
• Exchange rates Stakeholders
Resources modeling & • dll Opportunity ( janji )
Estimation - Classification
Vs Threat

Mine Planning Process

Cadangan
Unique Mining Objective
Prospect Key Strategic Decision High Performance
• Uncertainties • Mining method Project
(geological, dll)
• Production rate
• Non-renewables Ukuran
• CoG/ SR
• Lokasi • Optimal NPV to
• dll.
• dll Opportunity Stakeholder
Vs Threat (Max NPV, after other
Opportunity factors, to shareholder)
• Capital Vs Threat
• Time to develop
• Dll
? What role
Short-term
Threat & planning
?How Opportunity ? What role
To realize or enhance Management Mining Operation
the expected value

(adaptasi Hall & Hall, 2015)

Ilustrasi : Maximize Value #)

ref. Hall & Hall, 2015

 (?)how where & when ?
Meng-estimasi Tonase & Kadar/kualitas
cadangan Analisis strategi, Cadangan
BESR, dll. ter-estimasi … ?
w/ mine planning
(w/ requirement)
(?)how
Menentukan
Ilustr.: Methodology Mine Planning
FINAL LIMIT = Mining + Financial Engineering #)
penambangan
Mining
Economically Mineable
Engineering

Go Go

NO-Go

NO-Go

Financial
Engineerig NO-Go NO-Go

NO-Go
Go Go Go
Komersial

Economically Mineable Economically Mineable Economically Mineable

Kelemahan Cadangan = tonase & kualitas, minerba bagian Adapt. fr. Lufi Rachmad, 2017,
calon CPI sumberdaya yang economically mineable ref SNI 4726, fig 3/ SNI 5015, fig 2
Cadangan
 Pengukuran Kelayakan Ekonomis Tambang
(Kerangka Corporate Finance) #)

Cakupan mine planning u/ estimasi cadangan Ref. Prof. Damodaran

 Pembentukan Model Finansial #)

 Revenue : sales (ton) x unit price ($/ton)

 ( - ) operation cost
 ‘Gross Profit ‘after operation cost’
 ( - ) admin. cost Skedul Produksi
 EBITDA
Unit price
 (-)D&A
P&L  EBIT
Unit Cost
 ( - ) Interest input
 EBT
Infrastuktur
 ( - ) Tax (kalau rugi = 0, )
Planning
 Net Income (bottom line)
 ( +) D & A
Capital
 Cash flow from Operation
 ( - )Capex/ CIP dll
C/F  Cash flow ‘before Financing’
 ( + ) New debt
 ( - ) Debt repayment
 Net Cash flow
 Parameter Keputusan Ekonomis Proyek #)

• Parameter dasar
• Net Present Value (NPV) What is the basis?
DCF method
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Projected
• Payback Period (PB) Non-DCF method Cash Flow

• Parameter advance What yang jadi ukuran?

• Discounted Payback Period • Pengembalian investasi
• & pertumbuhan aset
• Average Accounting Rate of Return (AAR)
• Profitability Index (PI)
(Critical note) Subject to update
• Dll. • At least once every year; or
• Kalau ada perubahan signifikan
parameter keekonomian
Pola Cash Flow Proyek Yang Jadi Tambang

Economically
mineable, IF
• IRR > criteria/
• NPV > 0

Smith, 2010
 Mining Sequence Vs Projected Cashflow

Economically
Mineable
(maybe)
Cadangan
Tidak terwujud

Adapt. fr.Runge, 2017

C. Potensi Pengaruh Covid19
Terhadap Estimasi Cadangan
Covid19 - Predicted Recovery to 2019 IPLevel

Woodmac, May 2020

Covid19 – Predicted Commodity Demand

Woodmac, May 2020

Covid19 – Predicted Commodity Price

Woodmac, May 2020

 Covic19 – Guessed Impact

Threat (downside risk)

• Harga commodity
• Demand

Consequences
• Tingkat produksi
• Cut-off grade / Stripping ratio
• Mining sequence berubah, dll

Bagaimana kalau 5 tahun, atau > ?

• Re-estimasi cadangan
• Tutup tambang/ operation dormant
Sukses wassalam