Problems

8.3 For the data given in the following table, identify a suitable decline model, determine
model parameters, predict the time when the production rate will decline to a marginal
value of 50 Mscf/day, and the reverses to be recovered before the marginal production
rate is reached:

Solution :

log (q) VS t
10000

1000
q (Mscf/D)

100

10

1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
t (month)

 Grafik log (q) Vs t menunjukkan model decline eksponensial

 Model parameter
Untuk decline eksponensial

t1 = 2 months, q1 = 819 Mscf/D

t2 = 23 months, q2 = 100 Mscf/D

, /

t (month) q (Mscf/D) Δq Δt
1 904,84 - - -
2 818,73 -86,11 1 0,105
3 740,82 -77,91 1 0,105
4 670,32 -70,5 1 0,105
5 606,53 -63,79 1 0,105
6 548,81 -57,72 1 0,105
7 496,59 -52,22 1 0,105
8 449,33 -47,26 1 0,105
9 406,57 -42,76 1 0,105
10 367,88 -38,69 1 0,105
11 332,87 -35,01 1 0,105
12 301,19 -31,68 1 0,105
13 272,53 -28,66 1 0,105
14 246,6 -25,93 1 0,105
15 223,13 -23,47 1 0,105
16 201,9 -21,23 1 0,105
17 182,68 -19,22 1 0,105
18 165,3 -17,38 1 0,105
19 149,57 -15,73 1 0,105
20 135,34 -14,23 1 0,105
21 122,46 -12,88 1 0,105
22 110,8 -11,66 1 0,105
23 100,26 -10,54 1 0,105
24 90,72 -9,54 1 0,105
 Plot Projected production rate by a exponensial decline model.
 Time when the production rate will decline to a marginal value of 50 Mscf/day is
=
(qi is production rate at t=0)
=
=

Time
when q=50 Mscf/D is
  = 1000 ,( )
= 82,1
 = 1000 , ( )
= 74,3
 = 1000 ,( )
= 67,2
 = 1000 ,( )
= 60,8
 = 1000 , ( ) = 55

 = 1000 ,( )
= 49,8
So production rate will decline to a marginal value of 50 Mscf/D when
time is 30 month

8.4 For the data given in the following table, identify a suitable decline model, determine
model parameters, predict the time when the production rate will decline to a marginal
value of 50 stb/day, and yearly oil productions:

Solution :

log(q) VS t
10000

1000
q (STB/D)

100

10

1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
t (month)
 Grafik log (q) Vs t menunjukkan model decline eksponensial
 Model parameter
Untuk decline eksponensial

t1 = 2 months, q1 = 1637 Mscf/D t2

= 23 months, q2 = 201 Mscf/D

= , /

t (month) q (Mscf/D) Δq Δt

1 1810 - - -
2 1637 -173 1 0,106
3 1482 -155 1 0,105
4 1341 -141 1 0,105
5 1213 -128 1 0,106
6 1098 -115 1 0,105
7 993 -105 1 0,106
8 899 -94 1 0,105
9 813 -86 1 0,106
10 736 -77 1 0,105
11 666 -70 1 0,105
12 602 -64 1 0,106
13 545 -57 1 0,105
14 493 -52 1 0,105
15 446 -47 1 0,105
16 404 -42 1 0,104
17 365 -39 1 0,107
18 331 -34 1 0,103
19 299 -32 1 0,107
20 271 -28 1 0,103
21 245 -26 1 0,106
22 222 -23 1 0,104
23 201 -21 1 0,104
24 181 -20 1 0,110
 Plot Projected production rate by a exponensial decline model.
 Time when the production rate will decline to a marginal value of 50 STB/day is
=
(qi is production rate at t=0)
=
=

Time when q=50 Mscf/D is

 =















So production rate will decline to a marginal value of 50 Mscf/D when

time is 37 month