The Delphi Method

The experts’ way to logically reach a consensus

Introduce the topic to the people on the panel. Then they should be handed over
the questionnaires. Questionnaires should be made after proper research and use
of intellect; purpose should be to narrow down the ambit of opinions so that a
consensus can be reached. Don’t forget and let know your experts that the only
purpose of this exercise is to elicit and organize individual opinion on a topic as to
help the group reach a consensus on certain issue. You should be very well aware
that this method is preferred over group discussion only to avoid the
disadvantages of conventional method of discussion and reach a conclusion
without any prejudice. Questionnaires shall be given to the participants again and
again until the scope is narrowed down and they reach the same conclusion.
Delphi method is not applied in a gathering, but only in private, which means that
every person on the panel shall submit his answers anonymously and thus each of
the panelists shall be immune from the ramifications of their opinions. It is to
remember that although it is a group activity, but participants are geographically
dispersed.
This method is being successfully used by teachers and professionals to reach a
consensus when opinions differ on some point and consensus seems difficult; it is
also used in jury system where jurists are asked by the judge to write down their
opinion on the matter and that’s how the judge and the jury reach a conclusion.
Before applying the Delphi method, please makes some things sure. Make sure
that people involved are aware of the exercise, that they are experts on the topic
at hand and what are the alternative techniques of reaching a consensus, if there
are any, whether they have been used or not?
Give questionnaires to all of the participants after making sure that they cannot
see or hear the other experts. Questionnaires should be simple and concise,
focusing on the situation, causes and effects (optional) and the problem which
needs to be resolved, asking participants to propose the solution. For the first
time, they should be given forty minutes to understand fully the questionnaires
and answer them appropriately.
After they return the questionnaires, read it and check for ambiguities or
vagueness, if there is some ambiguity and no consensus can be developed,
analyze the answers and give back the questionnaires to the participants for
another round. This round should continue for twenty minutes. After completing
the questionnaires, experts on the panel shall return them to you. The same
procedure shall be repeated as defined above; this time consensus shall be
construed from opinions made by the panelists.
That opinion shall be considered the most mature opinion and consensus shall be
trusted and the panelists shall be informed of the consensus if needed.
Summary Steps:
1. Forming a group of panelists
2. Keeping them far from each other
3. Making sure that no participant can hear or see the other
4. Making a simple and concise questionnaire
5. Focusing the situation, cause and effects and solution of the problem
6. Telling the participants that they need to opine and find a solution
7. Giving the questionnaires to participants for 40 minutes – First round
8. Taking back questionnaires after 40 minutes
9. Examining questionnaires for ambiguities
10. Analyzing questionnaires
11. Giving back due to vagueness – Second Round 20 minutes
12. Getting back questionnaires after 20 minutes
13. Developing consensus on base of opinion
Timing:
 First round - 40 minutes
 Second round – 20 minutes
Total Time 1 Hour
Prerequisites:
 Questionnaire on A4 size paper(s)
 Informing participants (unless in exceptional cases)
 Providing valid and detailed information on topic
 Anonymity of panelists

1. http://web.iyte.edu.tr/~muratgunaydin/delphi.htm
2. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/delphi-method.asp