Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc.: Reits
Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc.: Reits
Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc.: Reits
Equity Research
March 19, 2019 REITs
Thomas Catherwood
212-738-6140 Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc.
tcatherwood@btig.com IIPR Matures IRT (In Real Time). We See More To Go
James Sullivan And Raise Our Price Target To $101.
212-738-6139
jsullivan@btig.com With 20/20 hindsight, a review of our 1/14/19 launch report on IIPR (“Triple
Threat – Early Cycle, High Growth, Defensive”) could best be titled “We
thought we knew…” At the time, we were staunchly confident in IIPR’s
investment thesis – “creative capital provider to the cannabis industry” –
and the size of the opportunity set; both of which continue to prove out.
What we did not know, is that investor acceptance of the cannabis sector,
funding sources available to IIPR, and management’s ability to
source/execute deals would evolve, seemingly together, in a short period
of time. Given these three – now more fully understood – variables, we are
IIPR $86.21 reiterating our Buy rating and raising our Price Target $29 to $101.
12 month target
Upsi de
$101.0017.2%
Acquisitions Are Key… IIPR’s primary source of growth is acquisitions;
BUY as long as the company can keep acquiring, the investment thesis
remains intact. IIPR scaled its acquisitions from $47.3M in 2017 to
52 week range $26.02 - $86.21 $90.1M in 2018 (see Exhibit 1). Without a line of credit, however, the
Dividend Yield 2.1% company has had to raise capital well in advance of acquisitions (see
Market Cap (m) $843 Exhibit 2), which creates a near-term drag on earnings.
Price Performance
…Convert Deal Provides New Source Of Capital… On 2/21/19, IIPR
completed a $143.8M convertible bond offering yielding 3.75%
($69.575/sh convert price). The deal: (1) provided IIPR with a new
source of funding, (2) highlighted investor acceptance (deal was
upsized and oversubscribed), and (3) raised the question “why raise
capital when you had $114.0M of liquidity as of 4Q18?” (See next)
Valuation: IIPR's shares trade at 22.2x our 2020 FFO/sh estimate and a
Source: IDC
112.2% premium to our NAV estimate. Our price target implies a
19.2% total return based on a 26.0x forward multiple (see page 2)
Estimates
1Q18 A 2Q18 A 3Q18 A 4Q18 A FY18 A 1Q19 E 2Q19 E 3Q19 E 4Q19 E FY19 E FY20 E
Sales 3 3 4 5 15 6 8 10 11 34 59
EBITDA 1 2 2 3 8 4 6 7 9 27 50
FFO 1 2 2 3 8 5 7 8 9 29 50
FFO/sh 0.18 0.26 0.32 0.34 1.10 0.45 0.56 0.67 0.78 2.46 3.88
Source: BTIG Estimates and Company Documents ($ in millions, except per share amount)
Rental Revenue 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.7 14.3 5.9 7.6 9.3 10.8 33.6 12.2 13.6 15.0 16.4 57.3
Tenant Expense Reimbursements 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.4
Total Property Revenues $2.8 $3.3 $3.9 $4.8 $14.8 $6.0 $7.8 $9.5 $11.1 $34.5 $12.5 $14.0 $15.4 $16.8 $58.7
Rental Expenses (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) (0.4) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.8) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (1.4)
Total Property Expenses ($0.1) ($0.1) ($0.2) ($0.1) ($0.4) ($0.1) ($0.2) ($0.2) ($0.3) ($0.8) ($0.3) ($0.3) ($0.4) ($0.4) ($1.4)
Net Operating Income $2.7 $3.2 $3.7 $4.7 $14.3 $5.9 $7.6 $9.3 $10.8 $33.6 $12.2 $13.6 $15.0 $16.4 $57.321
General & Administrative Expense (1.5) (1.5) (1.4) (2.0) (6.4) (1.6) (1.7) (1.8) (1.9) (7.0) (1.8) (1.9) (2.0) (2.1) (7.8)
EBITDA $1.2 $1.8 $2.3 $2.7 $8.0 $4.3 $5.9 $7.5 $8.9 $26.6 $10.4 $11.7 $13.0 $14.3 $49.5
Depreciation & Amortization (0.5) (0.5) (0.7) (0.9) (2.6) (1.1) (1.3) (1.5) (1.8) (5.7) (2.0) (2.2) (2.5) (2.7) (9.5)
EBIT $0.7 $1.2 $1.6 $1.8 $5.3 $3.2 $4.7 $6.0 $7.2 $21.0 $8.4 $9.5 $10.5 $11.6 $40.1
Interest Expense 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.4) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (4.4) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (5.4)
Other Income (Expense) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 3.5 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.9 2.1
Acquisition Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gain on Sales of Non-Op. RE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Income from Continuing Operations $0.9 $1.5 $1.8 $2.7 $7.0 $3.7 $4.4 $5.5 $6.5 $20.0 $7.5 $8.4 $9.8 $11.1 $36.8
Operating (Loss) Income from Disc. Ops. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gain on Sale of Discontinued Real Estate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Income $0.9 $1.5 $1.8 $2.7 $7.0 $3.7 $4.4 $5.5 $6.5 $20.0 $7.5 $8.4 $9.8 $11.1 $36.8
Preferred Stock Dividends (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (1.4) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (1.4) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (1.4)
Net Income Att. To IIPR Common $0.6 $1.2 $1.5 $2.3 $5.6 $3.3 $4.0 $5.2 $6.1 $18.7 $7.2 $8.0 $9.4 $10.8 $35.4
Allocation to Participating Securities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Income Available To Common $0.6 $1.2 $1.5 $2.3 $5.6 $3.3 $4.0 $5.2 $6.1 $18.7 $7.2 $8.0 $9.4 $10.8 $35.4
Non-Recurring Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Funds From Operations - "Recurring" $1.1 $1.7 $2.2 $3.2 $8.3 $4.8 $6.6 $8.0 $9.2 $28.8 $10.6 $11.6 $13.2 $14.9 $50.304
Straight Line Rent Adj. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FAS 142 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Building Improvements, TIs & LCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stock-Based Compensation 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.8
"Stabilization" Capex (Non-Recurring) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Funds Available for Distribution $1.4 $2.1 $2.6 $3.6 $9.7 $5.2 $7.0 $8.4 $9.6 $30.3 $11.0 $12.1 $13.7 $15.3 $52.1
Wtd. Avg. Shs. & Units Outst'd – FFO 6.0 6.8 6.8 9.5 7.3 10.7 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.6 11.9 12.0 13.3 14.5 12.9
"Recurring" FFO / Share* $0.18 $0.26 $0.32 $0.34 $1.10 $0.45 $0.56 $0.67 $0.78 $2.46 $0.88 $0.97 $1.00 $1.02 $3.88
FFO / Share** $0.18 $0.26 $0.32 $0.34 $1.10 $0.45 $0.56 $0.67 $0.78 $2.46 $0.88 $0.97 $1.00 $1.02 $3.88
FAD / Share $0.23 $0.31 $0.38 $0.38 $1.31 $0.49 $0.59 $0.71 $0.81 $2.59 $0.92 $1.01 $1.03 $1.05 $4.01
Dividend / Share $0.25 $0.25 $0.35 $0.35 $1.20 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $1.80 $0.60 $0.60 $0.60 $0.60 $2.40
Margin Analysis
NOI/Total Revenues 96.9% 97.9% 94.7% 98.3% 97.0% 97.6% 97.6% 97.7% 97.6% 97.6% 97.6% 97.6% 97.7% 97.6% 97.6%
G&A/Total Revenues 53.4% 44.5% 36.7% 41.4% 43.1% 26.5% 21.7% 18.9% 17.1% 20.3% 14.4% 13.6% 13.0% 12.5% 13.3%
EBITDA/Total Revenues 43.4% 53.5% 57.9% 56.9% 53.9% 71.1% 75.8% 78.7% 80.5% 77.3% 83.2% 83.9% 84.7% 85.2% 84.3%
FFO/Total Revenues 39.2% 52.5% 56.0% 67.8% 55.9% 80.1% 85.0% 84.4% 83.5% 83.5% 84.2% 83.3% 86.1% 88.3% 85.7%
FAD/Total Revenues 51.1% 63.5% 65.8% 75.9% 65.8% 86.5% 89.9% 88.5% 86.9% 88.0% 87.6% 86.4% 88.9% 90.9% 88.6%
FAD/FFO 130.5% 120.9% 117.6% 111.9% 117.7% 108.0% 105.8% 104.8% 104.2% 105.4% 104.1% 103.8% 103.3% 102.9% 103.5%
*Recurring FFO equals FFO excluding provisions for impairment, gains and losses from the early extinguishment of debt and preferred stock, restructuring charges, and other one-time items.
**FFO equals net income under GAAP, excluding gains/losses from debt restructuring and sales of property, plus depreciation and amortization, and after adjustments for unconsolidated partnerships and joint ventures.
As BTIG
($ in millions except per share) Reported Adjustments Comments:
Net Operating Income (NOI) $4.7 $4.7
(-) Straight Line Rents 0.0 0.0
(-) FAS 141 0.0 0.0
(+/-) Term. Fees/Other Non-Recurring 0.0 0.0
(+/-) Partial Period Acq., Disp., Dev. 0.3 Acquisitions
(+/-) Adjustment 1.3 Rent abatements
(=) Equals: Adjusted Quarterly NOI $6.3
(x) 4.0x
(=) Annualized NOI $25.1
(+/-) NOI Growth 1-Year Forward 0.8 3.25% NTM Cash SSNOI Growth
(-) Management Fee 0.0 Incl. in Op. Exp. Above
(=) Adjusted NOI $25.9
(/) Cap Rate 9.00%
(=) Real Estate Value $144.6 $288.0
Prem. /
Cap Rate NAV
(Disc.)
8.00% $ 44.32 94.5%
8.25% $ 43.31 99.0%
8.50% $ 42.37 103.5%
8.75% $ 41.48 107.9%
9.00% $ 40.63 112.2%
9.25% $ 39.84 116.4%
9.50% $ 39.08 120.6%
9.75% $ 38.37 124.7%
10.00% $ 37.69 128.7%
Source: BTIG
Regulatory Disclosures
Ratings Definitions
BTIG LLC’s (“BTIG”) ratings, effective June 12, 2017, are defined as follows:
BUY – A security which is expected to produce a positive total return of 15% or greater over the 12 months following
the recommendation. The BUY rating may be maintained as long as it is deemed appropriate, notwithstanding
price fluctuations that would cause the target to fall outside of the 15% return.
SELL – A security which is expected to produce a negative total return of 15% or greater over the next 12 months
following the recommendation. The SELL rating may be maintained as long as it is deemed appropriate,
notwithstanding price fluctuations that would cause the target to fall outside of the 15% return.
NEUTRAL – A security which is not expected to appreciate or depreciate meaningfully over the next 12 months.
NOT RATED – A security which is not rated or covered by BTIG.
UNDER REVIEW – Effective immediately, coverage of the following securities is Under Review. Ratings, price
targets, disclosures, and estimates for the companies listed below are suspended and should no longer be relied
upon.
For purposes of FINRA ratings distribution rules, BTIG’s stock ratings of Buy, Neutral and Sell fall into Buy, Hold and
Sell categories, respectively.
BTIG LLC has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months from:
Terreno Realty Corporation (TRNO), Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. (IIPR)
BTIG LLC had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with:
Terreno Realty Corporation (TRNO), Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. (IIPR)
BTIG LLC managed or co-managed a public offering of securities in the past 12 months for:
Terreno Realty Corporation (TRNO), Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. (IIPR)
The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report receives compensation based upon a variety
of factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, internal/client feedback, and overall Firm revenues.
BTIG reports are based on public information and BTIG considers the same to be reliable, comprehensive
information, but makes no representation or warranty that the reports are accurate or complete. BTIG opinions and
information provided in this report are as of the date of the report and may change without notice. An issuer may
be classified as “Under Review” or “Research Restricted”. In these cases, investors should consider any previous
investment recommendation and/or rating to a subject company/issuer to no longer be current and should not be
relied upon nor considered a solicitation.
This research report is not an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security in any jurisdiction
where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. This research report was not drafted specifically for any
particular individual or entity and is not a personal recommendation to participate in any particular trading strategy
or transaction. Any recipient of this research report should obtain independent advice specific to their personal
circumstances before undertaking any investment activity and must make their own independent evaluation of any
securities or financial instruments.
Facts, views or opinions presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known
to, employees or other professionals in the “BTIG Group” (BTIG Group includes, but is not limited to, BTIG and its
parents, subsidiaries and/or affiliates). BTIG Group employees, including Sales Representatives and Traders, may
provide oral or written commentary or advice that may be inconsistent with the opinions and/or views expressed in
this research report. BTIG Group employees and/or its affiliates not involved in the preparation of this research
report may have investments in securities or derivatives of securities of companies mentioned in this report that
are inconsistent with the views discussed in this report.
Investors in securities products bear certain risks in conjunction with those investments. The value of, and income
from, any investments may vary because of changes in interest rates or foreign exchange rates, securities prices or
market indexes, operational or financial conditions of companies or other factors within or beyond the companies
control. Recipient of the research reports should be aware that investments in securities may pose significant risks
due to the inherent uncertainty associated with relying on forecasts of various factors that can affect the earnings,
cash flow and overall valuation of a company. Any investment in securities should be undertaken only upon
consideration of issues relating to the recipient’s overall investment portfolio and objectives (such as diversification
by asset class, industry or company) as well as time horizon and liquidity needs. Further, past performance should
not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or
implied, is made regarding future performance. There may be time limitations on the exercise of options or other
rights in any securities transactions.
Investing in foreign markets and securities, including ADRs, is subject to additional risks such as currency
fluctuation, limited information, political instability, economic risk, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing
in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Non-U.S. reporting issuers of foreign securities, however, may
not make regular or complete public disclosure relating to their financial condition or the securities that they issue.
The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of their respective owners. Third-party data
providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness
of the data they provide and shall not have liability of any damages of any kind relating to such data. The report or
BTIG Australia Limited ACN 128 554 601, member of ASIC and ASX; BTIG Hong Kong Limited, an Exchange
Participant of SEHK and licensed and regulated by the SFC; BTIG Ltd, member of the LSE, authorized and regulated
by the FSA; and BTIG Singapore Pte Ltd, registered and licensed with MAS; are all separate but affiliated entities
of BTIG. Unless governing law permits otherwise, you must contact a BTIG entity in your home jurisdiction for
further information, or if you want to use our services in effecting a transaction.
Issued and approved for distribution in the UK and EEA by BTIG Ltd. to eligible counterparties and professional
clients only. Issued and distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” only by BTIG Australia Limited. In Singapore
and Hong Kong, further information may be obtained from BTIG Singapore Pte Ltd and BTIG Hong Kong Limited,
respectively.