Climate Variability and Climate Change 2016

Climate Variability
and
Climate Change
Raymond C. Ordinario
Weather Specialist I
PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
 El Niño/ La Niña
 Climate Variability and Change
 Observed Trends
 Manifestations/Impacts of Climate Change and
the Philippines’ Vulnerability
 Climate Change Scenario in the Philippines
 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
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El Nino and La Nina
also known as the
ENSO
Phenomenon
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 Stands for
 El Niño here refers to the warming of the ocean
in the eastern equatorial and central Pacific.
 Southern Oscillation is the changes in

atmospheric pressure associated with this warming,
and SO index is the measure of these changes.
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Strong er Easterly Wind
West East Eq
Warm
pool
L H
Warm water builds up in the Less Rainfall

Western Pacific
Warm water heats Easterly trade-winds

the atmosphere, the help push warm water
air rises, and low- to the western Pacific
level trade winds and upwell cold water
converge toward the along the equator in
warm water. the eastern Pacific
Subsiding air occurs Ocean
in the eastern Pacific Fosters the growth
basin. of fish population
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El Nino is a phenomenon where
water across much of the tropical
eastern and central Pacific makes
hotter than usual and affects the
atmosphere and weather around the
world.
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West Westerly wind Weaker than normal Easterly Wind
High East Eq
Low
Reduced Rainfall Enhanced Rainfall
• Easterly trade winds

weaken Convection shifts
eastward over the
• Thermocline
central and/or eastern
deepens and the cold
Pacific Ocean.
water upwelling
Convection becomes
decreases in the
suppressed over the far
eastern Pacific. western Pacific/
Indonesia/ Philippines
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NORMAL CONDITION
EL NINO CONDITION
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NORMAL CONDITION ANGAT DAM
EL NINO CONDITION
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La Niña
is the opposite of
El Niño
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La Niña is a climate pattern where the
water in the Pacific Ocean near the
equator gets colder than usual and
affects the atmosphere and weather
around the world.
A “La Nina” event often, but not

always, follows an El Nino and vice
versa
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Warm waters are carried by the winds
towards Indonesia and the nearby
regions like the Philippines.
This translate into La Niña
In the Philippines generally, La Niña

means more rains but effects around
the globe differ.
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Stronger than normal Easterly Wind
West East Eq
Low High
Pressure Pressure
Enhanced rainfall Less Rainfall
• Convection becomes •Easterly trade winds

stronger over the far strengthen
western Pacific • Thermocline becomes
Ocean/ Indonesia and more shallow and the
more suppressed in cold water upwelling
the central Pacific. increases in the eastern
Pacific.
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Observed24-hour rainfall – 455mm
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TWO PHASES OF ENSO
• La Niña (cold phase)
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Climate
Variability and
Change
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Weather vs. Climate
Weather is what you get
Weather is the present condition of the atmosphere
or it is a day-to-day conditions of the atmosphere at a
particular place and time
Climate is what you expect
Climate is the average of weather for a particular area a
over a period of time ranging from months to decade,
thousands or millions of years.
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Variations (ups and downs) in climatic
conditions on time scales of months,
years, decades, centuries, and milenia.
Includes droughts and floods.
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Rainfall - single climatic element that can
adequately describe Philippine climate
First Semester - April to September,
synchronized with southwest monsoon
(N.H. Summer monsoon)
Second Semester - October to March of

the following year, synchronized with
the northeast monsoon (N.H. winter
monsoon)
≤ 450 (mm) 901- 1800

451- 900 > 1800
More than 50% of annual rainfall is attributed to tropical cyclone

activity
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Type 1 (IBA, ZAMBALES) Type 3 (ISU, Echague)
1200.0
1000.0 1200.0
RAINFALL (mm)
800.0
1 1000.0
RAINFALL (mm)
600.0 800.0
400.0 600.0
200.0 400.0
0.0 200.0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
0.0
MONTH
MONTH
Two pronounced seasons: No very pronounce

Dry from Nov- Apr maximum rain
Wet rest of the year period, one or 3
months dry season
Type 4 (DAVAO CITY)
1200.0
1000.0
4 Type 2 (CASIGURAN, AURORA)
RAINFALL (mm)
800.0 1200.0
600.0 1000.0
2
RAINFALL (mm)
400.0 800.0
200.0
600.0
0.0
400.0
MONTH 200.0
0.0
MONTH
More or less evenly

distributed
No dry season with
throughout the year,
maximum rain
PAGASA
no dry season
period Payong
from Dec- Feb
Climatic Controls that Influence Philippine
Climate
• geography and topography
semi-permanent cyclones and anti-cyclones
air streams
-southwest monsoon (HABAGAT)
-northeast monsoon (AMIHAN
ocean currents
linear systems
-ITCZ
-cold front
-easterly wave
tropical cyclones
ENSO phenomenon (El Niño & La Niña)
 Recently, it has been accepted that
PAGASA human activity is also affecting climate Payong
What is Climate Change?
CLIMATE CHANGE = Change in Climate
“Any change in climate over time, whether due to
natural variability or as a result of human activity.”
-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Anthropogenic Climate Change is attributed to

the dramatic increase in Green House Gas (GHG)
emissions into the atmosphere, trapping heat and
creating the greenhouse effect or global warming
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Global Climate System
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What causes climate change?
Causes of climate change
Natural factors Human factors
variability
Land use
Aerosols
Volcano
Natural
GHGs
Solar
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What is Green house Effect?
A diagram of the natural greenhouse effect on earth, A diagram showing how additional greenhouse gases trap
where the Earth's temperature is kept constant to support more heat in the Earth’s atmosphere and raises the
life.
PAGASA temperature. Payong
Example of the Greenhouse Effect
The Sun’s energy

passes through the
car’s windshield.
This energy (heat) is
trapped inside the
car and cannot pass
back through the
windshield, causing
the inside of the car
to warm up.
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Humans are increasing heat-trapping gases in the
atmosphere = enhanced greenhouse effect
 Carbon dioxide: +31%

 Methane: +151%
 Nitrous oxide: +17%
‘Thickening blanket’
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Humans are increasing heat-trapping gases
in the atmosphere = enhanced greenhouse effect
Burning of fossil fuels
Widespread deforestation
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What are the human activities that cause
increases in the concentrations of the
greenhouse gases?
Carbon dioxide Human-induced
Natural sources
 Burning of fossil fuels
 Soils (biological processes)
 Transport
 Ocean
 industries
 Land-use changes
Nitrous oxides
Nitrous oxides
Natural sources Human-induced
 Tropical soils (wet forests)  Nitrogen-based
fertilizers and chemicals
 Ocean
 Industrial sources
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Hydrofluorocarbon
Hydrofluorocarbons Human-induced
Natural sources
 Coolants
 none
 Sealants
 insulations
Methane
Methane Human-induced
Natural sources
 Flooded rice agriculture
 Wetlands
 Livestock production
 Termites
 Waste management
 Ocean system (landfills, etc.)
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Countries by CO2 (MT) emissions via the burning of fossil fuels
(blue the highest)
POLLUTERS VUL
1 China 10
2 USA 18
3 Russia 56
4 India 7
5 Japan 68
6 Germany 23
Of 210 countries, the Philippines 7 UK 46
ranked 47th. The top 10 countries 8 Canada 89
9 S. Korea 34
in the world emit 67.2% of the 10 Italy 12
PAGASA world total. Payong
Out of 172 Countries
What is Climate Change?
Increase in Green House Gases
(GHG)
ENHANCE GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
Increase in Global Temperature

GLOBAL WARMING
CLIMATE CHANGE
Change in climate patterns
such as rainfall, wind patterns
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What’s the proof that
global warming is
taking place?
Source: Robert A. Rohde http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Map_jpg

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What is Global Warming?
Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
Period Rate
50 0.1280.026
100 0.0740.018
Years /decade
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What are the current global
temperature trends?
Source: Robert A. Rohde http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Map_jpg

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What are the current climate trends?
1906-1910
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The Weather and Climate Authority
Source: Robert A. Rohde http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Map_jpg PAGASA
1916-1920
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1926-1930
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1936-1940
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1986-1990
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1996-2000
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2003-2007
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Projected temperature
Are there projections for further warming?
Yes, there are projected increases from 1.4°C to 5.8°C during the 21st century leading to
an increase in the sea level from 18-59 cm by 2100.. The increase that will be realized by
2100 will depend on the population growth, amount and manner of developments,
adoption of environmentally clean technologies, and measures/strategies to be put in
place PAGASA
by the global community. Payong
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How vulnerable is the
Philippines?
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Highly Susceptible to Flooding
and Inundation
 Archipelago, composed
of low lying small
islands
 70% of cities and

municipalities are
coastal areas
 Highly susceptible to
flooding and storm
surges
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“Of all the nations in the world, the
Philippines has experience the most Top Ten
natural hazards in the 20th century. Countries
vulnerable to the
China, the USA in third position”. Kovach,
impacts of
R.L. 1995. Earth’s Fury” An introduction to natural hazards and disaster. Prentice Hall, NJ,
USA. Climate Change
(2008-2009).
http://www.aneki.com
Rank Countries
1 Bangladesh
2 Burma
3 Honduras
4 Vietnam
5 Nicaragua
6 Haiti
2009 7 India
Source: CRED Crunch, Issue No. 19, 8 Dominican Republic
www.cdrc-phil.com 9 Philippines
PAGASA 10 ChinaPayong
E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
WorldRisk Report 2011
UNU-EHS: United Nation University
Institute of Environment and Human Society
Source: WorldRiskReport.org
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WorldRisk Report 2011
UNU-EHS: United Nation University
Institute of Environment and Human Society
Source: WorldRiskReport.org
PAGASA Payong
PAGASA Payong
ST. BERNARD
LANDSLIDE
Feb 2006
TY Reming (DURIAN)
Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006 2006
Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)

PAGASA
TY Milenyo, Sept 2006 June 21, 2008. (MV Princess ofPayong
the Stars)
Damaging Storms & Typhoons, Intense rainfall events
ORMOC FLASHFLOOD
TS Uring
November 1991
INFANTA & AURORA

FLASHFLOOD
Dec 2004
PANAON ISLAND
FLASHFLOOD
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Dec
The Weather 2003
and Climate Authority PAGASA
How is global warming
manifested in the
Philippines?
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Philippines mean temperature
Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-
2010) Departures from 1971-2000 normal values
1
0.8
Annual mean temp
Difference ( C) from 1971-2000)
0.6
Smoothed series (5 year running mean)
0.4
0.2
-0.2
-0.4 Period Rate

1981-2010 (last 30 yrs) - 0.0164
-0.6 1951-2010 (60 years) - 0.0108
Years C/year
Source: CAD/PAGASA/DOST
-0.8
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
An increase of 0.648°C from 1951-2010 (60 years)

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Maximum & Minimum Temperature
Rate of increase almost 3

times higher compared
with the maximum
temperature
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Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines
Period: (1951 – 2008)
Trend in the frequency Trend in the

of days with maximum frequency with
temperature above the minimum temperature
1961-1990 mean 99th above the 1961-1990
percentile mean 99th percentile
PAGASA (Hot days). (Warm nights) Payong
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines
Period: (1951 – 2008)
Trend in the frequency Trend in the frequency

with maximum with minimum
temperature below the temperature below the
1961-1990 mean 1st 1961-1990 mean 1st
percentile
PAGASA Cool Days
percentile
Cold nights
Payong
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Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines
Period: 1948-2010
Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PAR
Period: 1948-2010
40
Number of Tropical Cyclones
35 Five-year running mean y = -0.0223x + 20.124
Number of Tropical Cyclones
Linear (Five-year running

30 mean)
25
20
15
10
0
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
*Cinco,T.A.,et
Year
al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.
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Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines
with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph and above
Number of Extreme Typhoon (150 kph and above)

Period: 1971-2010
12
Mean= 5.7 or 6 TCs
Neutral year
(10), 2004
10
El Niño year 9, 1987
La Niña year
8
Frequency of TC
0
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Year
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Disastrous Tropical cyclones
DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TOTAL DAMAGE 1 BILLION OR MORE)
PERIOD:1970-2010
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTAL DAMAGE NO. OF
YEAR PERIOD
NAME (IN BILLION PESOS) DEAD
TY_PEPENG 2009 27.296722 465 SEP 30 - OCT 10
TY FRANK 2008 13.500000 557 JUN 18 - JUN 23
TY JUAN 2010 11.500000 31 OCT 16 - OCT 21
TS_ONDOY 2009 10.952198 464 SEP 24 - SEP 27
TY RUPING 1990 10.846000 508 NOV 08 - NOV 14
TY ROSING 1995 10.799000 936 OCT 31 - NOV 04
TY KADIANG 1993 8.752400 126 SEP 30 - OCT 07
TY LOLENG 1998 6.787000 303 OCT 15 - OCT 25
TY MILENYO 2006 6.606837 213 SEP 25 - SEP 29
TY REMING 2006 5.448579 734 OCT 21 - OCT 26
TY UNSANG 1988 5.636000 157 NOV 28 - DEC 03
TY ILIANG 1998 5.375000 46 OCT 10 - OCT 16
TY COSME 2008 4.700000 61 MAY 14 - MAY 20
TY CALOY 2006 4.320893 82 MAY 09 - MAY 15
Source of data: Office of Civil Defense (OCD, NDRRMC
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Increasing cost of Damage Payong
Disastrous Tropical cyclones
DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE
CASUALTY IS 300 OR MORE
PERIOD: 1951-2010
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTAL DAMAGE NO. OF
YEAR PERIOD
NAME (IN BILLION PESOS) DEAD
TS URING 1991 0.001 5101 NOV 01 - NOV 06
TY NITANG 1984 0.004 1029 AUG 31 - SEP 04
TY TRIX 1952 0.088 995 OCT 17 - OCT 23
TY AMY 1951 0.070 991 DEC 06 - DEC 11
TY ROSING 1995 0.011 936 OCT 30 - NOV 04
TY UNDANG 1984 0.002 895 NOV 03 - NOV 06
TY SISANG 1987 0.001 808 NOV 23 - NOV 26
STY REMING 2006 5.449 734 NOV 28 - DEC 03
TY TITANG 1970 0.000 631 OCT 18 - OCT 22
TD WINNIE 2004 0.001 593 NOV 27 - NOV 29
TY SENING 1970 0.000 575 OCT 11 - OCT 15
TY FRANK 2008 0.014 557 JUN 18 - JUN 23
TY RUPING 1990 0.011 508 NOV 10 - NOV 14
Source of data: Office of Civil Defense (OCD, NDRRMC
Number of casualty due to T.C. not increasing thru time
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Recorded Maximum Gustiness during the passage of
Tropical Cyclones (1951-2010)
MAX. WIND DATE OF
T.C. NAME STATION DURATION
(KPH) OCCURRENCE
TY REMING Virac Radar 320 11/30/2006 NOV 28 - DEC 03
TY LOLENG Virac S. 287 10/21/1998 OCT 15 - OCT 25
TY ANDING Virac R. 280 11/27/1981 NOV 21 - NOV 27
TY SENING Virac S. 276 10/13/1970 OCT 10 - OCT 16
TY WENING Aparri 269 10/27/1974 OCT 25 - OCT 29
TY TRINING Masbate 269 12/15/1987 DEC 14 - DEC 19
TY FREDA Casiguran 258 11/16/1959 NOV 12 - NOV 19
TY YOLING Alabat 258 11/19/1970 NOV 17 - NOV 21
TY GARDING Guiuan 258 12/21/1994 DEC 17 - DEC 24
TS SALING Ambulong 251 10/10/1989 OCT 08 - OCT 11
TY ROSING Virac R 251 11/2/1995 OCT 31 - NOV 04
TY MAMENG Basco 240 10/12/1975 OCT 09 - OCT 13
TY ATANG Guiuan 240 4/19/1978 APR 18 - APR 26
TY SALING Daet 233 10/18/1985 OCT 15 - OCT 20
TY SISANG Legaspi 233 11/25/1987 NOV 23 - NOV 27
TY SUSANG Aparri 230 10/10/1974 OCT 09 - OCT 12
TYPAGASA
ARING Virac R 230 11/4/1980 NOV 01 - NOV 07
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Source:Climate Data Section, Climatology and Agrometeology Division, PAGASA,DOST
Greatest 24-Hr. Rainfall during the passage of
Tropical Cyclones (1951-2010)
GREATEST 24-HR. DATE OF
T.C. NAME STATION DURATION
RAINFALL (MM) OCCURRENCE
TY FERIA Baguio 1085.8 07/04/01 JUL 02 - JUL 05
TY ILIANG Baguio 994.6 10/14/98 OCT 10 - OCT 16
TY TRINING Baguio 979.4 10/17/67 OCT 14 - OCT 19
TY SUSANG Baguio 781.4 10/11/74 OCT 09 - OCT 12
TY TRINING Baguio 760.0 10/27/91 OCT 20 - OCT 31
TY DITANG Baguio 730.3 05/15/80 MAY 10 - MAY 20
TS CHEDENG Dagupan 722.6 05/27/03 MAY 25 - MAY 29
TY GADING Baguio 709.6 07/09/86 JUL 06 - JUL 10
TY ARING Baguio 698.7 11/05/80 NOV 01 - NOV 07
TY WENING Baguio 678.8 10/28/74 OCT 25 - OCT 29
TD SISANG Alabat 673.0 12/27/75 DEC 26 - DEC 28
TY NITANG Baguio 649.7 09/28/68 SEP 23 - OCT 01
TY DIDANG Baguio 605.3 05/25/76 MAY 12 - MAY 27
TS ARING Masbate 603.5 12/04/76 DEC 02 - DEC 07
TY REMING Surigao 564.7 11/18/68 NOV 12 - NOV 22
TY CORA Baguio 546.6 11/17/53 NOV 12 - NOV 19
TY OSANG Baguio 536.3 07/25/80 JUL 20 - JUL 26
PAGASA
TS MIDING Baguio 534.2 08/23/78 AUG 20 - AUG 27
Payong
Source:Climate Data Section, Climatology and Agrometeology Division, PAGASA,DOST
How is Precipitation
Changing?
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Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related
disasters due to very intense rainfall
Observed24-hour rainfall – 455mm

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Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the
Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)
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Source: PAGASA
The Weather http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/climate_change/ClimateProjections.html
and Climate Authority
Projected Change in annual mean temperature
Medium-range Emission ( A1B) Scenario
1.8 to 2.2 2.6 to 3.4
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PAGASA Payong
Monthly Rainfall Projections for Medium-range emission
scenario (A1B) By Climate type
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0
Baguio
1600.0
1400.0
Casiguran
Rainfall Amount (mm)
1200.0
900.0
1000.0 800.0
800.0

700.0
OBS
600.0 600.0
2020
400.0 500.0
2050
200.0 400.0 OBS
300.0 2020
0.0
200.0 2050
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
100.0
0.0

under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
Iloilo
600.0
Hinatuan
500.0 Davao 900.0

800.0

400.0 700.0
300.0
900.0 600.0
500.0
OBS
200.0 2020 800.0 400.0
300.0
OBS
2020
2050
100.0 200.0
700.0 100.0
2050
0.0 0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 600.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
500.0
Dumaguete
400.0 OBS
900.0
800.0
300.0 2020
700.0
600.0 200.0 2050
500.0
400.0 OBS 100.0
300.0 2020
200.0 2050 0.0
100.0
0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
PAGASA Payong
For example, in South Cotabato province, the projected values in 2020
are;
•DJF mean temperature = (27.7 C +1.0 C) = 28.7 C;
•DJF rainfall = {183.3mm+183.3 (10.1%)mm} = (183.3+18.5)mm or
201.8mm;
•number of days with Tmax > 35 C in General Santos City during the
2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) = 3,748;
•number of dry days in General Santos City during the 2006-2035
period (centered at 2020) = 7,526; and
•number of days with rainfall > 300mm in General Santos City during
the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) = 0.
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http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/climate_change/ClimateProjections.html
Impacts of Global Warming
 Severe Drought
 Reduction in agricultural production enhancing
poverty, Food shortage
 More emphasis on ground water extraction leading to
ground water depletion ,Deterioration of ground
water
 Dwindling water resources
 Flooding both in riverine area and flash floods from in
hill torrents.
 Threat to aquatic life and migratory birds
 Reduced hydro power generation result to more
emphasis on fossil fuel.
 Sea level Rise
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Responses to
Climate Change
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The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA79
PAGASA Payong
Mitigation
An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or
enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.
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81
Mitigation Actions
Improve technology Regulations and standards
Use instruments Change behavior and lifestyle
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PAGASA
MITIGATION Payong
MITIGATION
PAGASA
– Change in behavior Payong
What should we do?
 Waste disposal segregation may help instead
 Costless, only discipline is needed
3R’s
of Saving Mother Nature
Reduce,
Reuse,
Recycle!
PAGASA Payong
Adaptation
Practical steps to protect countries and
communities from the likely disruption and
damage that will result from effects of climate
change
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CC adaptation requires an understanding of
vulnerabilities and impacts
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CC impacts and vulnerabilities are location specific
and vary from sector to sector
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What are the possible scenarios
The impacts on people will vary depending

where you live – impacts could include:
 Many people having to move to higher
ground, due to flooding
 People having to be better prepared in

tropical cyclone-risk regions
 Farmers having to adapt to changing

growing seasons
PAGASA Payong
Agriculture
•Use of climate information in agricultural operations
-Climate Field School
-decision tools for agricultural operations (modeling)
-use of seasonal climate forecasts
-Early warning system (EWS)
-fitting revised crop calendars to local changes in climate
•Use of various technologies
-sustainable agriculture such as organic farming systems
-use of drought- and flood-resistant crops/varieties
•Risk transfer mechanisms
-weather-based insurance
-multi-cropping
•Extension services
-subsidies on various inputs
-provision of post-harvest facilities
-provision of technological advice
-providing access to low-interest production loans
PAGASA Payong
Science can provide
knowledge…
…We all have to provide

the solutions.
PAGASA Payong
PAGASA’s Response Activities
Enhancement of • Upgrading of surveillance radars/
Observing systems Establishment of Doppler Radar
and monitoring • Upgrading of Satellite Facilities (NOAA,
facilities for early MTSAT,FY2E)
warning system
• Upgrading of Upper Air Stations
• Buoys, wind profilers, AWS
PAGASA Payong
THANK YOU!
Website:
www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Facebook:
www.facebook.com/
PAGASA.DOST.GOV.PH
Twitter:
@dost_pagasa
Typhoon Flood
+632-9271541 +632-9266970
+632-9271335 +632-9204052
Climate IEC
+632-4351675 +632-4342696
+632-4340955 +632-9279308
PAGASA Payong

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Climate Variability and Climate Change 2016

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Climate Variability

 Southern Oscillation is the changes in

Warm water builds up in the Less Rainfall

Warm water heats Easterly trade-winds

Reduced Rainfall Enhanced Rainfall

• Easterly trade winds

A “La Nina” event often, but not

In the Philippines generally, La Niña

Enhanced rainfall Less Rainfall

• Convection becomes •Easterly trade winds

• La Niña (cold phase)

Second Semester - October to March of

≤ 450 (mm) 901- 1800

More than 50% of annual rainfall is attributed to tropical cyclone

Two pronounced seasons: No very pronounce

Type 4 (DAVAO CITY)

More or less evenly

Anthropogenic Climate Change is attributed to

Natural factors Human factors

The Sun’s energy

 Carbon dioxide: +31%

Burning of fossil fuels

Increase in Global Temperature

Source: Robert A. Rohde http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Map_jpg

Source: Robert A. Rohde http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Map_jpg

Are there projections for further warming?

 70% of cities and

Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)

INFANTA & AURORA

-0.4 Period Rate

An increase of 0.648°C from 1951-2010 (60 years)

Rate of increase almost 3

Trend in the frequency Trend in the

Trend in the frequency Trend in the frequency

Linear (Five-year running

Number of Extreme Typhoon (150 kph and above)

Number of casualty due to T.C. not increasing thru time

Observed24-hour rainfall – 455mm

1.8 to 2.2 2.6 to 3.4

Rainfall Amount (mm)

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)

500.0 Davao 900.0

Rainfall Amount (mm)

Improve technology Regulations and standards

Use instruments Change behavior and lifestyle

The impacts on people will vary depending

 People having to be better prepared in

 Farmers having to adapt to changing

…We all have to provide

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