Addis Ababa University

School of Commerce

MA-Logistics and Supply Chain Management Program

Supply Chain Modeling for Decision Making Take Home Exam

Instructor: Matiwos Ensermu (PhD).

Date: June 25, 2020

Time to start: 9am

Time to submit: 9am, June, 26,2020 via email: matiwos.ensermu@aau.edu.et only.

Name____________________________________ ID__________________ Section_______

Instruction:

There are five questions and it is an open book exam. When you answer the questions (solve the
problems), try to follow the proper algorithm as each step accounts value.

Q1. Two Commercial Bank’s customer service officers are serving all customers for new bank accounts
opening. The customers desiring to open new accounts arrive at the rate of 4 per hour, according to a
Poisson distribution, and the accounts officer spends an average of 12 minutes with each customer,
setting up a new account. Determine the operating characteristics (P0, L, Lq, W, Wq, and Pw) for this
system (Use queue Formula here).

Q2. Addis Ababa University wants to procure a new CCTV Camera for electronic ID at the gate for
students and staffs from a supplier, and is considering three models: the A,B,C. AAU has identified
three criteria for selection on which it will base the decision from the models: purchase price, quality,
and maintainability. AAU has developed the following pairwise comparison matrices for the three
criteria:

Price B B
1/2 C
1
2
A
1
CCTV
1/3
A
C 1/7
B
1/4
C
1/2
B
1
3
Quality
A 1
1 1/4
2
4 CCTV C
A 7

1
 4
1

Maintainability

CCTV
A
B
C
A
1
2
1
B
1/3
1
1/2
C
1
2
1

2
AAU has prioritized the decision criteria according to the following pairwise comparisons:

Criteria Price Quality Maintainability

Price 1 3 5
Quality 1/3 1 2
Maintainabilit 1/5 1/2 1
y
Using AHP, develop an overall ranking of the three SNW Commerce is Considering for
its electronic ID to be launched in 2009 e. C academic year.
Calculate CI, for RI=0.58 for n=3 criteria and make your decision.

Q3. Richard Darwkins is a successful evolutionary biologist who is negotiating a contract for a
new book(“ Selfish Gene”-who claimed human beings are fundamentally selfish to survive their
genes) with his publisher, PHI, Inc. His contract strategies encompass various proposals for
royalties, movie rights, advances, and the like. The following payoff table shows the financial
gains for the author’s from each contract strategy:

  Publisher Strategy
Jane’s Strategy A B C
1 $80,00 $120,000 $90,000
0
2 130,00 90,000 80,000
0
3 110,00 140,000 100,000
0

a. Does this payoff table contain any dominant strategies?

b. Determine the optimal strategy for Richard Darwikins and the publisher and the value of
the game.

Q4. Eka Kotebe Emergency Hospital for COVID 19 receives an emergency call every day for
the past 100 days, according to normal following probability distribution. The COVID response
team is on duty 24 hours per day, 7 days per week:

a. Develop a frequency distribution by classifying days in to ranges of 10 days interval

b. Develop probability distribution from frequency distribution

3
c. Use random number and Simulate the emergency calls for next 100 days of the number of
cases of COVID 19 in Ethiopia (note that this will require a "running,"), using the random
number table.

Q5. Write the executive summary of your major findings from the group project in less than
one page . (Use the attached data for your simulation run!)