Coyuntura y Crecimiento

Sergio Montoya Carrizosa

Administración de empresas

Portafolio #5 (Junio 8)
País: Israel
Noticia: Iran prepares to confront Israel in Syria via Hezbollah - report
Iran may be preparing for conflict with Israel in Syria and no longer will accept Israeli
airstrikes on its warehouses without a response, a report over the weekend suggested.
Veteran journalist Elijah Magnier wrote on the website Medium about whether the “great
Middle Eastern war will begin in the Levant” and cited Syria as a potential flashpoint.
Magnier’s report is interesting because he asserts that according to “private” sources, Iran
is evacuating “sites of the gatherings of its advisers, not for withdrawal or for
redeployment, but to find bases within the Syrian Army barracks. Hezbollah has taken
over the vacated Iranian buildings. Russia has been informed of the change so that the
information would reach Israel.”
In mid-May, reports emerged that Iran might be withdrawing some of its forces from
Syria, estimated at some 1,000 IRGC personnel. But analysts and US officials rejected this
assessment at the time.
The June 6 piece by Magnier provides another view as to what may be happening: “Iran
no longer wants to accept Israeli strikes on its warehouses without any response.”
An airstrike killed nine Iranian-backed forces in Syria, Radio Farda reported over the
weekend. This report also said there were explosions near Masyaf, a Syrian-regime and
Iranian facility that has been hit by airstrikes in the past. That airstrike may have taken
place on June 4.
Another airstrike, blamed on Israel, was reported overnight on June 7 in the morning. The
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said some eight warheads fired by “unidentified
drones” hit an area near Deir Ezzor. The targets were Afghan and Iraqi Shi’ite militias at
the “Meizileh base,” reports said.

Iran has been moving its advisers, which Magnier say number a few hundred, to Syrian-
regime bases. This would protect them ostensibly because airstrikes would be less likely to
hit them there. If there were airstrikes, then the Syrian regime would respond, and this
“would most likely drag the US into the battle to support its ally Israel and have an impact
on the forthcoming elections,” Magnier wrote.
Russia plays a key role because it is coordinating with Israel, he wrote, adding: “It was
agreed between Israel and Russia that Moscow and [Russia’s airbase at] Khmeimim would
Coyuntura y Crecimiento
Sergio Montoya Carrizosa
Administración de empresas

be informed of the details of any strike.” Russia plays the middleman, in this view, not part
of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” but telling its Syrian-regime allies what is happening.
“Russia has informed Israeli leaders of this move by Iranian advisers and their presence
among the Syrian army units,” Magnier wrote. “Russia warned Israel not to strike the
Syrian army under any circumstances and informed them that the Iranian bases have been
handed over to Hezbollah.”
Hezbollah’s special-operations units, Radwan (Al-Ridwan), have not lost a battle in Syria,
he wrote. However, the unit did suffer a setback at the hands of Turkey in Idlib in February
and March, The Jerusalem Post reported on May 21.
Magnier’s article has a larger point. Hezbollah takes seriously the killing of its fighters, he
wrote, adding: “Israel’s drones make sure these locations are free of Iranian advisers and
that the Russian warning reaches those concerned to evacuate human personnel... Israel
follows the same practice when it attacks Hezbollah cars or trucks, warning drivers and
passengers in advance.”
Warning missiles are fired, the report said.
But after an incident in Beirut in August 2019 involving drones, Hezbollah sought to
retaliate, and it wants to show it has deterrence. Hezbollah has stockpiled missiles and
precision guidance and “drones, land-attack long-range all-weather subsonic cruise
missiles… long-range anti-ship missiles” and other munitions, Magnier wrote.
Hezbollah believes it has a deterrent and “new rules of engagement” that protect its men
in Syria. Nevertheless, wars can start by mistake, the article concludes.

Resumen:
Irán esta trasladando cada vez más tropas del ejército de Hezbollah a Siria para apoyar a
sus aliados de régimen y dispersar ataques y tropas israelíes que realizan presencia en
diferentes zonas del territorio. Esto se cree es repercusión de los bombardeos de las
ultimas semanas en donde resultaron muertos 6 militares iraníes a manos del ejército
israelí.
Se cree que Irán está en busca de venganza por la muerte de uno de sus generales mas
queridos en un bombardeo estadounidense por lo cual está generando tensión en Israel,
uno de los aliados más fuertes de los estadounidenses. Por otro lado, rusia quien apoya el
régimen sirio se ha mostrado más neutral entablando diálogos con el gobierno israelí para
calmar las tensiones.

Bibliografía:
The Jerusalem Post (2020,Junio 7). Iran prepares to confront Israel in Syria via Hezbollah -
report
Coyuntura y Crecimiento
Sergio Montoya Carrizosa
Administración de empresas

Recuperado desde: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/report-iran-prepares-to-

confront-israel-in-syria-via-hezbollah-630655