Non-Traditional Security Threats-Pakistan's State of Preparedness

Introduction:
The global security environment has changed drastically over the course of last two decades.
While the risks of inter-state war and armed conflict are still looming, the global community is
now confronted with the security challenges which are non-military in nature and referred to as
the non-traditional security threats. These challenges include environmental degradation,
population explosion and food and water scarcity. They are increasingly seriously impacting the
stability, development and, in fact, the very survival of mankind. However, humans themselves
have subverted the global eco-system through over-utilization of natural resources since the
beginning of the industrial revolution, causing wide spread pollution. The speed of global
climate change is projected to be more rapid than any to have occurred in the last 10,000 years.
Pakistan is specifically vulnerable to climate change and ranked at 7th position in the index of
most affected countries on Global Climate Risk Index 2018. Glaciers of the Himalayas are
melting. As glaciers recede, it will increase flooding and affect water resources within the next
two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows and damaged coastal areas
in Pakistan.

As Pakistan`s economy is largely agrarian. so these harmful effects of environmental

degradation may also affect agricultural yield leading to food scarcity. The spending on the
import of edibles by an agrarian country like Pakistan is not only worrisome but also putting
extra-burden on the already depleting foreign exchange reserves.

The nexus between climate change and human security within states and international
peace and security has been recognized by various UN agencies and other international
organizations. Listing various security challenges, the UN Secretary General in its Report on
"Climate Change and its Possible Security implications" (64/350) states that climate change
could potentially cause conflicts between countries sharing trans-boundary water or other
resources. Former US Secretary of State John Kerry described climate change as “a global threat
of the same magnitude as terrorism, epidemics and weapons of mass destruction”.

www.facebook.com/civilofficersacademyofficial
www.civilofficersacademy.com
0341-0255580 Page 1
Despite having the world's largest glaciers, Pakistan is among the world's 36 most water-stressed
countries. Pakistan's Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) has warned that unless
timely measures are taken, the country will run out of water by 2025. This will also constrain the
country’s ability to harness its full potential of hydro-electricity. While giving attention to
enhancing water supply, there is need to also focus on demand side measures which promote
water conservation, water use efficiency and control on excessive ground-water exploitation.

Explaining Non-Traditional Threats:

Non-traditional security issues are challenges to the survival and well-being of peoples
and states that arise primarily out of non-military sources, such as climate change, resources
scarcity, infectious diseases, natural disasters, irregular migration, food shortages, people
smuggling, drug trafficking and transnational crime. These dangers are often transnational in
scope, defying unilateral remedies and requiring comprehensive – political, economic, social –
responses, as well as humanitarian use of military force.

Non-Traditional Threats in Pakistan:

Following are some of the Non-Traditional threats faced by Pakistan:

1. Environmental Degradation:
Pakistan, unlike its other Asian neighbors, is particularly vulnerable to climate change, as its
socio-economic fabric is largely agrarian, which makes it highly climate sensitive. Pakistan is
ranked at 8th position in the index of most affected countries by the effects of climate on the
Objectives: 1) Map the existing narratives on non-traditional security challenges to Pakistan,
accounting for all dimensions and perspectives. 2) Analyze the response to non-traditional
security challenges, and determine how pragmatic and relevant they are within the context of
Pakistan. 3) Produce policy relevant recommendations by bringing together a core group of
experts and officials specialising in non-traditional security sphere. Session I: Environmental
Degradation 02 National Seminar Report Non-Traditional Security Challenges to Pakistan March
28, 2018 Climate Risk Index 1992-2011. Pakistan can mitigate the adverse effects of natural
disasters through early warning systems, technological advances in building and infrastructure
construction, improved sanitation systems, increased disaster preparedness, and having an
effective emergency response strategy. Expanding and enhancing the information and knowledge
www.facebook.com/civilofficersacademyofficial
www.civilofficersacademy.com
0341-0255580 Page 2
base on climate change, as well as mapping vulnerabilities, can help create adaptive measures for
reducing the effects of climate change. Apropos to the above, carry out an appraisal of domestic,
regional and global factors contributing to environmental degradation with a view to proffer
input for futuristic policy formulation to meet the challenges of environmental degradation and
to make Pakistan a sustainable, thriving and prosperous state.

2- Population Explosion
Population explosion and resultant unbridled, unchecked and unplanned urbanization is clearly a
major issue afflicting Pakistan. Large population and high growth rate adversely affect all
aspects of society, the economy, and the environment. Population growth creates and exacerbates
vulnerabilities by endangering basic civic amenities, leading to food shortages, dwindling clean
water resources and space for housing, and ultimately burdening the state and the society.
Pakistan has the highest urbanization rate in the South Asian region, and the process of
urbanization is characterised by sharp socio-cultural and geo-physical diversities. Here, as with
many other developing countries, most population growth happens in areas that are below the
poverty line, and survive in a subsistence economy, living in disaster prone areas. Apropos to the
above, carry out an appraisal of the efficacy of policy measures undertaken thus far to regulate
population growth with a view to suggest a pragmatic approach suitable for our socio-cultural
milieu.

3. Food Security
Growth in agricultural productivity has broadly kept pace with accelerating food demand in the
country. However, medium-term food security challenges will become far more daunting if
immediate attention is not paid to managing water resources, both underground and in the Indus
Session II: Population Explosion Session III: Food Security 03 National Seminar Report Non-
Traditional Security Challenges to Pakistan March 28, 2018 Basin river system. Due to scarcity
of irrigation water, the farmers are shifting cultivation from water intensive crops like rice,
wheat, cotton and sugarcane (staple food) to low water intensive crops and vegetables, thus
putting pressure on food market. Moreover, the crops yield is declining due to evaporation and
sever temperatures during long summer season. Food insecurity is a major hindrance to social
and economic development of the country and needs critical scientific inquiry, and idea of
viewing this issue in terms of climate change carries with it a multipronged strategy to address
www.facebook.com/civilofficersacademyofficial
www.civilofficersacademy.com
0341-0255580 Page 3
the issue seriously. Apropos to the above, carry out an appraisal of the factors affecting food
security in Pakistan with a view to suggest a holistic approach to make Pakistan a sustainable,
thriving and prosperous state.

4. Water Security:
According to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan ranks third in
the world among countries facing acute water shortage. Reports by the United Nations
Development Programm (UNDP) and the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources
(PCRWR) also warn the authorities that the South Asian country will reach absolute water scarce
by 2025.

Pakistan has the world's fourth-highest rate of water use. Its water intensity rate — the
amount of water, in cubic meters, used per unit of GDP — is the world's highest. This suggests
that no country's economy is more water-intensive than Pakistan's. According to the IMF,
Pakistan's per capita annual water availability is 1,017 cubic meters — perilously close to the
scarcity threshold of 1,000 cubic meters. Back in 2009, Pakistan's water availability was about
1,500 cubic meters.

Michael Kugelman, South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center, told
DW in a 2015 interview, “Pakistan is approaching the scarcity threshold for water. What is even
more disturbing is that groundwater supplies — the last resort of water supply — are being
rapidly depleted. And worst of all is that the authorities have given no indication that they plan to
do anything about any of this.”

5. Economic Threats:
Pakistan has achieved steady growth since 2013 in the aftermath of a credit facility agreement
with the IMF. Economic growth was estimated to have peaked in 2018 at 5.8% amid improved
performance of services and agricultural sector as well as household consumption that remained
robust as in 2017. Economic activity is forecast to grow at a slower pace thereafter against a
backdrop of widening macroeconomic imbalances, at 4% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020, according
to the IMF, lower than its initial forecast of 6% for 2019.

www.facebook.com/civilofficersacademyofficial
www.civilofficersacademy.com
0341-0255580 Page 4
2018 was marked by a growth in private sector credit amid a low interest rate environment and a
steady increase in private consumption, which accounted as much as 86% of GDP (World Bank).
Inflation was contained for most of the year at around 3.9% (IMF), down from 4.1% in 2017, but
rose sharply in the last quarter of the year on the back of currency depreciation and demand-side
pressures. Pakistan devaluated rupee five times throughout 2018 amid bailout talks with the IMF,
prompting its currency to lose more than 25% of its value against US dollar year-on-year and
become one of the worst performers in Asia. Inflation is therefore expected to rise sharply to
7.5% in 2019, to edge down only slightly to 6.5% in 2020 (IMF). Current account deficit
worsened to reach 5.9% of GDP, up from 4.1% in 2017, as imports, albeit on a year-on-year
decline, became more expensive. Nevertheless, the currency devaluation should help boost
exports in 2019 and 2020, along with an enhanced access to the Chinese market, bringing down
the current account deficit to 5.3% of GDP at the end of this year. The debt-to-GDP ratio rose to
72.5% at the end of the year, higher than IMF's initial forecast of 68.7% and

67% in 2017.

Although the poverty rate has declined significantly since the early 1990s, the latest
figures by the Ministry of Planning Development and Reforms show that 29.5% of the country’s
population is living below the poverty line. The unemployment rate was 6.1% in 2018, broadly
unchanged from 2017, but the level of underemployment remains very high and much of the
economy is informal.

6. Terrorism:
Terrorism in Pakistan according to Ministry of Interior, poses a significant threat to the people of
Pakistan. The current wave of terrorism is believed to have started in the year 2000 which
peaked during the year 2009. Since then it has drastically declined as result of military operations
conducted by the Pakistan Army. According to South Asian Terrorism Portal Index (SATP),
terrorism in Pakistan has declined by 89% in 2017 since its peak years in 2009.

Since 2001, Pakistan military launched series of military offensive against terrorist groups in
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The offensive brought peace in those areas and

www.facebook.com/civilofficersacademyofficial
www.civilofficersacademy.com
0341-0255580 Page 5
rest of the country. Moreover, many terrorist belonging to various terrorist groups were also
killed. However, some militants managed to flee to Afghanistan. From Afghanistan, those
militants continue to launch attacks on Pakistan military posts located near the border. In 2017,
Afghanistan's Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah admitted that Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
has foothold in Afghanistan. In 2019, United States Department of Defense claimed that there
are around 3,000-5,000 terrorist belonging to Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Afghanistan.

According to report by Brown University's Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs,
23,372 Pakistani civilians and 8,832 Pakistani security personnel were killed in war on terrorism.
Moreover, According to the government of Pakistan, the direct and indirect economic costs of
terrorism from 2000–2010 total $68 billion. In 2018 Pakistani newspaper, Dawn news, reported
that the Pakistani economy suffered a total loss of $126.79 billion due to war on terror since
2001.

Pakistan’s state of Preparedness:

1. Environmental degradation:
Pakistan, which has been listed as the 7th most vulnerable country affected by climate
change, is now seriously tackling the vagaries of weather, both at the official as well as non-
official level.

Pursuant to an initiative launched by the Pakistan Parliament’s Upper House, the Senate, which
specially entrusted a sub-Committee of the Standing Committee on Climate Change to focus on
“Green and Clean” Islamabad, media, civil society and students have taken up the cudgels on
combating climate change.

On April 10, over 500 students and faculty of one of the prominent universities of Islamabad,
COMSATS, launched the “Say No to Plastics” campaign which includes distribution of flyers
underlining hazards of plastics use, backed by a door-to-door awareness campaign as well as
cautioning against plastic littering.

This is just one component of the campaign against environmental degradation in Pakistan, the
seeds of which were planted in 2014 when a similar Senate sub-Committee declared the “Right
www.facebook.com/civilofficersacademyofficial
www.civilofficersacademy.com
0341-0255580 Page 6
to a clean, green and healthy environment” as a fundamental Human Right. That sub-Committee
also published Pakistan’s first Media Manual on Environmental Degradation and Climate
Change. This was the outcome of the first-ever Public Hearings on environment and climate
change in Pakistan’s parliament which incidentally is the first Green Parliament in the world
since it is powered by solar panels, a gift from China.

2. Population Explosion:
Dating from 2002, Pakistan's current family planning policy reflects the govern-ment's concern
with rising population trends and poverty. The policy's goals include re-ducing population
growth (from 2.1 percent in 2002 to 1.3 by 2020), reducing fertility through voluntary family
planning (from 4 births per woman in 2004 to 2.1 births per woman by 2020), and as a signatory
to the Programme of Action developed at the International Conference on Population and
Development in Cairo in 1994, Pakistan pledged to provide universal access to family planning
by 2010. Also in Pakistan's Pov-erty Reduction Strategy Paper is the objective of increasing
contraceptive use 57 percent by 2012. At present there is no federal ministry of health or
population welfare and therefore no population policy. However, at the time of writing, Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Punjab are working on individual Health and Population strategies. An
analy-sis of this policy showed that while the Government of Pakistan spent US$652 million
funds under this policy between 2000 and 2009 (UNFPA), there was hardly any change in CPR
which was 30% in 2000 and remained unchanged in 2006. It is also important to note that other
elements of population development such as education, capacity building, economic
development, climate etc. were notably absent from this policy.

In 2009 the Ministry of Population sought to revise the Population Policy. However, under the
18th Amendment to the Constitution, the Ministry was devolved and its responsi-bilities were
shifted to Provincial Population Welfare Departments. In 2013 some of the provinces - notably
Punjab - reported that they were developing their own population poli-cies.

3. Food Security:
The development and progress of a sustainable agriculture sector greatly depends on
supply of timely and quality key farm inputs like seed, fertilizers, credit, pesticides on affordable
prices. These inputs play a vital role in ensuring enhanced farm productivity and profitability. In

www.facebook.com/civilofficersacademyofficial
www.civilofficersacademy.com
0341-0255580 Page 7
Pakistan smallholders are the largest investors in agriculture. Their system of production is both
complex and dynamic. The high level of risks and the modest means available imply that
unpredictable expenditures can trigger an impoverishment spiral. Second, when products are
sold, there is pressure to first feed the family and repay loans or debts. Thus the marketable
surplus is reduced, cash incomes remain low and, consequently, investments through cash
expenditures become difficult. Therefore, a framework and strategy will be developed to ensure
supply of quality farm inputs under a transparent and effective regulatory arrangement in
collaboration with relevant federal departments and provincial governments.

4. Water Security:
The approval of a water policy package comprising a policy and a Charter by Pakistan’s
Council of Common Interests on April 23 represents a historic milestone given the lingering,
perennial disputes between the Punjab and Sindh provinces which had impeded the formulation
of a national water policy. The 41-page National Water Policy (NWP) is unexceptionable. It
addresses almost all relevant issues concerning the management of water resources and responds
to the concerns of stakeholders and reflects the inputs provided by Pakistani and external experts
during the past decade and a half. The shorter, 4-page Charter is meant to highlight both the
seriousness of “the looming shortage of water” which poses “a grave threat to (the country’s)
food, energy and water security” and constitutes “an existential threat…”as well as “the
commitment and intent” of the federal and provincial governments to make efforts “ to avert the
water crisis”.

5. Economic Security:
The past few decades Pakistan had been seeing a trend growth rate of 5 and 6 percent per
annum growth, which has now plummeted to around 3 percent. How do we go back to this?
Pakistan should be looking towards a growth rate of 8 – 9 percent.

The area that constitutes Pakistan today has historically seen periods of sustained growth such as
by opening up new frontiers like canal colonies that sustained growth for 5 decades, followed by
industrial revolution and then green revolutions. All of these factors played an important role in
pushing growth forward. More recently remittances has emerged as one of the key drivers for the
economy. Even today the country continues to witness growth spurts with substantive investment

www.facebook.com/civilofficersacademyofficial
www.civilofficersacademy.com
0341-0255580 Page 8
and capital coming in followed by periods recession. It is fundamental that we start thinking
about the drivers that can create structural change within Pakistan. In this regard it is also
essential to look at the micro dynamics of macro level issues.

Address the energy crisis:

The most significant challenge is the energy/power crisis. According to some estimates the
growth in Pakistan is 1/3rd off to the on-going power shortage.

Open up markets and encourage trade:

The region that is Pakistan can become a connector of markets like it has historically been. The
country is surrounded by resource rich countries and it should take advantage of the
complementarities that can arise in through the labor market, or through trade. If India and
Pakistan can break a lot of economic and non-economic barriers, Pakistan will be put on India’s
growth rate. Regional trade can be a potential driver for growth.

Invest in human capital:

Two challenges arise here. First is that need to improve general education outcomes across all
levels. Second is to improve the skillset of the Pakistani labor force.

Land reform:
Land is very central to industry and to urbanisation (which has been uneven). Land issues
remain central to what happens to the urban space. Property rights also need to be established
while agglomerations are to be thought over. Most importantly the writ of the state to introduce a
new system is essential. However land reform without financial market is useless

Reform the financial sector:

Currently only 14 percent of Pakistanis have bank accounts; hence access to finance is very
limited. The financial sector needs to be reformed with a keen focus on who it lends to, on what
conditions, to what end and how it can be made more accessible across a wide array of
stakeholders including individuals, the private sector and the public sector. System of
creating/providing credit to these people engaged in small medium enterprises is very important.
They require access loans bigger than what microfinance banks offer.

www.facebook.com/civilofficersacademyofficial
www.civilofficersacademy.com
0341-0255580 Page 9
Improve service sectors such as Health and Education:
While education has been responding well to a lot change the health sector is gravely under-
performing. Even though human capital is there, but the organizations are not leveraging this or
adding value to the human capital that is present. This has long-term implications on growth.
Socio-economic growth means better health and better education – these are outcomes beyond
simple economic growth and are essential for development.

Improve the security situation:

Discussion on non-economic factors is also essential such as the War on Terror, Sectarian
attacks and general law and order situation. The war on terror and other security issues cost the
economy roughly 9 percent of the GDP. Investment rates have plummeted due to this as
investment cannot be expected to take place unless security issues are addressed.

6. Terrorism:
After inaugurating the NAP on 24 December, the Sharif government implemented two
major demands of the military without delay: lifting the predecessor government’s 2008
moratorium on the death penalty; and passing on 6 January 2015 the 21st constitutional
amendment, empowering special military courts to try all terrorism suspects, including civilians.
Yet, the vast majority of the 176 executions since late December have been for crimes unrelated
to terrorism, and the military courts weaken constitutional protections and due process. Other
newly-created parallel structures, including provincial “apex committees”, enable the military to
bypass representative institutions and play a more direct role in governance. Armed with new
legal tools, the military has further marginalised civilian institutions in devising and
implementing counter-terrorism policy.

Despite claims to the contrary, the military, which has almost complete control over national
security and counter-terrorism policy, also still distinguishes between “bad” jihadi groups, those
targeting the security forces, and “good” jihadi groups, those perceived to promote its strategic
objectives in India and Afghanistan. Anti-India outfits such as Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JD), the
renamed version of the banned Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT), have even expanded their activities
through so-called charity fronts. Military-backed Afghan insurgents, such as the Haqqani
Network, have not been targeted in ongoing operations in the North Waziristan agency of the

www.facebook.com/civilofficersacademyofficial
www.civilofficersacademy.com
0341-0255580 Page 10
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Instead, the Haqqanis, like the LeT/JD, have been
kept off Pakistan’s list of terrorist groups.

Unsurprisingly, there is little evidence of progress on many NAP targets. Groups and individuals
banned in Pakistan and also blacklisted under UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1267,
continue to operate freely. Efforts to regulate the madrasa sector, curb hate speech and literature
and block terrorist financing have been haphazard at best.

A reformed and strengthened criminal justice system could have helped to achieve NAP’s
objectives. The Sharif government still has an opportunity, albeit fast shrinking, to reverse course
and meaningfully overhaul counter-terrorism strategy, but this necessitates revoking major
policy concessions to the military. The government should take on that challenge in order to
replace an overly militarised response with a revamped, intelligence-guided counter-terrorism
strategy, led by civilian law enforcement agencies, particularly the police. Dismantling terror
networks, detaining and trying jihadi leaders and foot soldiers, disrupting terror financing and
ending radicalisation through hate speech and literature will require reallocating limited
resources in order to strengthen the capacity of the provincial police forces. While the three basic
bodies of law, the Penal Code, Criminal Procedure Code and Evidence Act, need to be
modernised, it is even more urgent to build police capacity to enforce them. That capacity has
been gravely eroded due to the inadequacy of resources, training, internal accountability and
autonomy.

Conclusion:
The non-traditional threats are considered as key points in a country’s domestic and
foreign policy. A state focus regarding its national interests revolve around its security paradigm.
In this paradigm a state tries to curtail external and internal security challenges an it tries to make
policies regarding these challenges.

www.facebook.com/civilofficersacademyofficial
www.civilofficersacademy.com
0341-0255580 Page 11
References:
 Homepage | World Vision International. (2019). Retrieved 1 December 2019, from
https://www.wvi.org/
 World Resources Institute | Making Big Ideas Happen. (2019). Retrieved 1 December
2019, fromhttps://www.wri.org/
 Economic Survey of Pakistan 2018-2019
 Home - DAWN.COM. (2019). Retrieved 9 December 2019, from
https://www.dawn.com/
 Buzan, B. People, States and Fear.

www.facebook.com/civilofficersacademyofficial
www.civilofficersacademy.com
0341-0255580 Page 12