www.pitt.

edu/~super/

Just-in-Time Lecture

Pakistan Earthquake
8 October 2005

Ardalan A, Kazmi Kh, LaPorte RE, Holakouie Naieni K,

Dodani S, Pourmalek F, Shubnikov E, Linkov F, Russel M,
Mahdi, S. K. & Noji EK
 Mission Statement:

The Global Health Network Disaster,

Network for Earthquake is designed to
translate the best possible scholarly
information from leading researchers
to educators worldwide.
 What is the
Disaster Supercourse?

http://www.pitt.edu/~super1
What is a JIT lecture?

http://www.pitt.edu/~super1
 Lecture objectives:

‰ To provide the best possible scientific

information about the Pakistan
earthquake of 8 Oct 2005

‰ To teach how the science can help

prepare for primary & secondary
prevention of consequences of
Pakistan earthquake, 8 Oct 2005
What is the earthquake?

The shaking of earth caused by waves

moving on and below the earth's
surface and causing: surface faulting,
tremors vibration, liquefaction,
landslides, aftershocks and/or
tsunamis
How the earthquake happens?
ƒ It caused by a sudden slip on a FAULT.

ƒ Stresses in the earth's

outer layer push sides of
fault together.

ƒ Stress builds up & rocks

slips suddenly, releasing
energy in waves that travel
through the earth's CRUST
& cause the shaking that we
Feel during an earthquake.
 Earthquake Strength Measures
I) Magnitude & II) Intensity

I) Magnitude:

‰ Definition: A measure of actual physical

energy release at its source as estimated from
instrumental observations.

‰ Scale: Richter Scale

9 By Charles Richter, 1936
9 Open-ended scale
9 The oldest & most widely used Noji 1997
 Earthquake Strength Measures
I) Magnitude & II) Intensity

II) Intensity:
‰ Definition: a measure of the felt or perceived
effects of an earthquake rather than the strength
of the earthquake itself.

‰ Scale: Modified Mercalli (MM) scale

9 12-point scale, ranges from barely

perceptible earthquakes at MM I to
near total destruction at MM XII
 Magnitude versus Intensity

‰ Magnitude refers to the force of the earthquake as

a whole, while intensity refers to the effects of an
earthquake at a particular site.

‰ An earthquake can have just one magnitude, while

intensity is usually strongest close to the epicenter
& is weaker the farther a site is from the epicenter.

‰ The intensity of an earthquake is more germane to

its public health consequences than its magnitude.
 Northward movement of the Indian
subcontinent
(40 mm/yr = 1.6 inches/yr)
+
Colliding with the Eurasian continent

Earthquakes & active faults in

Northern Pakistan

USGS
& adjacent parts of India & Afghanistan
Seismicity of Pakistan
ƒ Concentrated in N and W of the country, along
the boundary of the Indian plate & the Iranian
& Afghan micro-plates

ƒ Thrust zones:
9 Kirthar
9 Sulaiman
9 Salt ranges

ƒ 4 faults in & around Karachi

 Peak Ground Acceleration (m/s2)

Based on Expected Ground Acceleration, Pakistan is

divided into 4 earthquake hazard zones.
Seismicity of Jammu & Kashmir

Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:

One of the strongest earthquakes in

the area since a mammoth M7.6 in
Sep 1555 with max density XII in
Kashmir (Jammu & Kashmir) and India
History of earthquakes in Pakistan, 1980-2004

Date Main Location M Death

20 Nov 2002 Gilgit-Astore 6.3 23
3 Nov 2002 Gilgit-Astore 5.3 17
1 Nov 2002 Gilgit-Astore 5.5 1
26 Jan 2001 Near Bhachau (Gujarat) 7.6 20
27 Feb 1997 Near Harnai (Baluchistan) 7.3 50
9 Aug 1993 Hindukush Mountains 7.0 -
31 Jan 1991 Hindukush Mountains 6.7 300
29 July 1985 Hindukush Mountains 7.4 5
30 Dec 1983 Hindukush Mountains 7.4 14
Gilgit Wazarat
12 Sep 1981 (Jammu & Kashmir), India 6.1 -
Largest earthquake in Pakistan !

ƒ Date: 30 May 1935

ƒ Location: Quetta / Balouchistan
ƒ Magnitude: 8.1 on the Richter scale
ƒ Time: 19:00:46.9 UTC
ƒ Epicentre: 27.39N, 88.75E
ƒ Depth: 17 Kms
ƒ Death: 30,000
Pakistan’s Health Statistics:

ƒ Total population: 153,578,000

ƒ GDP per capita (Intl $, 2002): 1,920

ƒ Life expectancy at birth m/f (years):

62,0/62,0

ƒ Healthy life expectancy at birth m/f

(years, 2002): 54,2/52,3
Pakistan’s Health Statistics:

ƒ Child mortality m/f (per 1000): 98/108

ƒ Adult mortality m/f (per 1000): 225/199

ƒ Total health expenditure per capita

(Intl $, 2002): 62

ƒ Total health expenditure as % of GDP

(2002): 3,2
Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:

ƒ Geolocation: 34.402°N, 73.560°E

ƒ Region:
Kashmir-Hazara Zone of Pakistan

ƒ Countries affected: Pakistan, India,

Afghanistan

ƒ Affected area: Forest-clad mountains

Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:

‰ Depth: 16.65 km.

‰ Epicentre Distances from Islamabad: 90 Km NNE
Pakistan Earthquake, 8 Oct 2005:

ƒ Magnitude: 7.7 WAPDA, Pakistan

7.8 on the Richter scale (JMA)

ƒ Classification: Major

ƒ Aftershock: ~ 20000 from 5.4 – 6.5

ƒ Date: Saturday 8 Oct 2005

ƒ Time: 8:50 AM at the local time

‰ Death toll: ~ 0.1 million Pakistan Earthquake
Impacts
‰ Injured: ~ 70,000

‰ Affected population:
ƒ Severely: 3.027.900
ƒ Marginally: 5.260.183

‰ Displaced/homeless:
ƒ 3.3 million
Balakot area:
ƒ The worst hit area
Main affected
ƒ 20,000 causalities
areas
ƒ 90% buildings
destruction
ƒ 100% homeless

Muzaffarabad:
ƒ 80% destroyed

City of Bagh:
ƒ Totally destroyed
Damage to health infrastructure:

Destruction of:

ƒ 26 hospitals

ƒ 3 Tuberculosis hospitals

ƒ > 600 PHC centres

 When disaster strikes, years of
development can be wiped out in seconds

The United Nations flash appeal for

Pakistan to cover the relief needs for
a 6 months emergency phase:

US$ 312 million

Relief operation obstacles:

ƒ Huge numbers of injured

ƒ Helicopters as the only means to get to cut-off
villages
ƒ Logistical challenges
ƒ Rapidly deteriorating weather conditions
ƒ Continuous rains at nights
ƒ Blocking roads by landslides
ƒ Heavy clouds
Critical needs of the affected population:

ƒ Winterised shelter up to 600,000 (based on

3 million needing shelter, 5 persons per
family)

ƒ Medical services
ƒ Water & sanitation
ƒ Nutrition
ƒ Reaching populations in villages
Health needs & concerns:
ƒ Cold temperature (<0) & hypothermia
ƒ Lack of sanitation facilities
ƒ Lack of adequate & safe drinking water
ƒ Need to water purification plants & Water tanks
ƒ Need to latrines
ƒ Problem of sanitary disposal of excreta and
ƒ Basic hygiene
ƒ Inadequate food
ƒ Unaccompanied, separated, orphaned children
ƒ Risk of diarrhoeal illnesses, pulmonary diseases
& non-treatment of injured and infected open
fractures & gangrenes
Dead bodies do not lead to epidemics,
but the bad odour is always a problem, as
it is true in Pakistan and was in Bam.

Solution: Spraying campaigns with

chlorine
A major problem in efficient service
delivery to really affected people:

‰ Increasing number of people moving into

Balakot from outlying villages seeking

assistance!
Bam earthquake lessons learned:

We should focus on:

ƒ Incident Command System (ICS)

ƒ Inter and Intra sectoral Coordination

ƒ Emergency Health Information System

(EHIS)
 Public Health Consequences of
Earthquakes

Please see the following lectures:

Part I.

http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13021/index.htm

Part II.
http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec13051/index.htm
Time of Pakistan earthquake,8 Oct 2005:

„ Around 9 AM on Saturday & most

students were at schools when the
earthquake struck !!
 Epidemiology of fear:

„ I feel we need to reach out first, are schools

all over Pakistan but particularly in cities like
Lahore and Islamabad who experienced
earthquake but fortunately escaped with out
major damage. These young minds are also
affected by the stories of hundreds of young
students who have lost their lives in other
areas.
Dr. Khawar Kazmi
ƒ People need information as much as
water, food, medicine or shelter.

ƒ Information can save lives, livelihoods &

resources.

ƒ Lack of information can make people

victims of disaster.

World Disaster Report 2005 – IFRC/RCS

 Just-in-Time Education:
Let’s teach the school children right now !
 Average Disaster Per Year in Pakistan

1
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6 0.62 0.62
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.05
0
Flood Earthquake Cyclone Drought
UNDP
 Proportion of People Killed per Type of
Disaster (1980-2000)
% 70 69
60
50
40
30
20 18
10 11

0 2
Flood Earthquake Cyclone Drought
UNDP
Comparison of Proportion of People Killed following
Earthquakes between Pakistan & other countries
(1980-2000)
% 100
94
90
80 80
70 69
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 3
Iran Japan Pakistan USA
UNDP
Comparison of 10-year death in Pakistan between
Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) & Earthquakes

1,600,000
1,500,000

1,200,000
30 times more death
due to CVDs than
800,000 earthquakes

400,000

0 50,000
Cardio Vascular Disease Earthquake
Earthquake Nature:
‰ Almost unpredictable disaster
‰ No early warning
‰ No scientific prediction technology

But we can protect ourselves &

minimize the damage to our
homes, schools & work places.
What we should do/do not before,

during & after the earthquake?

Please read carefully at:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/faq/prepare.html
References
 We wish to express our warm
thanks to GDHNet faculties and
all groups that contributed their
valuable materials.