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A case study on flood frequency analysis

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International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)
Volume 8, Issue 4, April 2017, pp. 1762–1767, Article ID: IJCIET_08_04_199
Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=8&IType=4
ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316

© IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed

A CASE STUDY ON FLOOD FREQUENCY

ANALYSIS
Kalpalatha.Ganamala
UG-Student, Department of Civil Engineering, KL University,
Vaddeswaram, Andhra Pradesh, India

P. Sundar Kumar
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, KL University,
Vaddeswaram, Andhra Pradesh, India

ABSTRACT
Flood frequency analysis is the most important statistical technique in
understanding the nature and magnitude of high discharge in a river. The objective of
frequency analysis is to relate the magnitude of events to their frequency of
occurrence through probability distribution. The scale and shape parameters of the
distribution were estimated using method of moments. The study which was carried in
Vijayawada aimed at Prediction of Flood frequency analysis of Krishna river of
Prakasam barrage at Vijayawada using Gumbel's, California, Hazen's methods.
These are estimated using different flood data from 1990-2014 of Prakasam Barrage
which were collected from Water Resources Department of Vijayawada. The
magnitude of the flood out comes to be for 20 years and 50 years is1823.33TMC and
1873.34 TMC.
Key words: Flood frequency analysis, Probability distribution, Gumbel's method,
Krishna River.
Cite this Article: Kalpalatha.Ganamala and P. Sundar Kumar, A Case Study on Flood
Frequency Analysis, International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 8(4),
2017, pp. 1762-1767.
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=8&IType=4

1. INTRODUCTION
In the present world Land and Water are the most important things. In India, there is four
major rivers. They are Ganga, Godavari, Brahmaputra and Krishna river. The total length of
the river is 1300 Km. It starts from Mahabaleswar in Maharashtra and ends at Hamsaladeevi
near the Bay of Bengal. Vijayawada is the largest city on Krishna river. The length of the
Prakasam Barrage 13 Km and flood bank is 6.40 Km which creates havoc in flood season
which will start from June to December. The areas of Krishna river are subjected to flooding
during monsoons. The maximum flood discharge is during the year 1903 is 11.90 lakh cusec.
Ahmad et. al, 2010,Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is the estimation of how often a specified

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 A Case Study on Flood Frequency Analysis

event will occur. Before the estimation can be done, analyzing the stream flows data are
important in order to obtain the probability distribution of flood. Todorovic,1971, Present’s
that the Gumbel's (I) distribution is suitable for estimate maximum type events. Burges,1978,
has discussed two methods for estimation of the third parameter (a) of log-normal type III.
The estimator of (a) using mean, and standard deviation are found to be more variant and
have a larger bias for distributions of interest in operational hydrology than the estimator
using mean ,standard deviation, and skew. The model parameters set up can then be utilized
to foresee the extraordinary occasions of expansive repeat interim (Pegram and Parak, 2004).
A few analysts have examined distinctive circulations for application to surge recurrence
investigation (Cunnane, 1989; Grehys, 1996; Blazkova and Beven, 1997; Saf, 2008). The
accessible verifiable hydrometric information, particularly in creating nations, can be short,
constrained or non-existent (Fill and Stedinger, 1995) to the degree that it is a long way from
being illustrative of the area under thought, or getting it might be costly, troublesome, or
tedious (Oztekin et al. 2007; Patel, 2007). Hydrologist thinks that its hard to make the exact
expectation of surge appraisals utilizing restricted notable data of overflow, precipitation,
waterway stages. (Adeboye and Alatise, 2007). The dispersions recommended for fitting
surge extremes information have been numerous (Singh and Strupczewski, 2002). (Oztekin et
al. 2007) connected parameter estimation strategies to an extensive rundown of various
circulations.
This review in this way applies the Gumbel factual dispersion for surge recurrence
investigation. To the best of the creator's information, no past reviews in the region have
endeavored to model surge releases utilizing the Gumbel dispersion, a stochastic creating
structure that deliver irregular results and surge streams fit Gumbel dissemination display. To
estimate the flood frequency of river adopted a method called Gumbel's method which gives
the future prediction of flood frequency. The main objective is to analyze the future flood
prediction.

2. MATERIAL AND METHODS

2.1. Flood Frequency Analysis
Flood frequency analysis gives the probability model curve to the annual flood peaks which
are recorded by the period observation and data of flood occurred in25 years (1994-2015).
This method is useful to predict recurrence interval and helps to cause no damage to the
public and government properties. There are different types of methods for the estimation of
Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA).Before estimating the flood, analyzing is important to
obtain Probability distribution. The terms return period and recurrence interval are used to
denote the reciprocal of the annual probability of exceedance. Table 1.shows the calculation
of recurrence interval using California method, Gumbel's method, Hazens method.

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 Kalpalatha.Ganamala and P. Sundar Kumar

Table 1 Calculation of Recurrence Interval Using Different Methods

Gumbel's Method Hazens Method California Method

S.No Discharge-m3⁄sec ( )
( )= ( = )

1 1419.06 89.28 50 25
2 1230.27 18.11 16.66 12.5
3 1215 10.41 10 8.33
4 1207.27 7.352 7.142 6.25
5 982 5.53 5.55 5
6 974.11 4.504 4.545 4.166
7 881.49 3.8167 3.846 3.571
8 586.71 3.29 3.33 3.125
9 584.76 2.91 2.941 2.77
10 557.12 2.58 2.631 2.5
11 509.92 2.34 2.38 2.272
12 421.6 2.144 2173 2.083
13 399.16 1.963 2 1.923
14 394.18 1.82 1.85 1.785
15 344.67 1.69 1.724 1.666
16 322.49 1.58 1.612 1.5625
17 269.05 1.48 1.515 1.4705
18 249.86 1.4 1.428 1.388
19 221.49 1.33 1.351 1.315
20 70.86 1.2575 1.282 1.25
21 69.98 1.1973 1.219 1.19
22 53.27 1.14 1.162 1.136
23 14.41 1.08 1.11 1.08
24 10.05 1.04 1.06 1.04
25 2.18 1 1.02 1
By using all these methods, the probability curve is determined, therefore Gumbel's
method is used for estimation of flood frequency.
2000.00
1800.00
d
1600.00 gumbels method
i
1400.00
s california method
c 1200.00
h 1000.00 hazens method
a 800.00 Log. (gumbels method)
r 600.00
g Log. (california method)
400.00
e 200.00 Log. (hazens method)
0.00
0 20 40 60 80 100
Return period for California, Gumbel's method, Hazens method

Figure 1 Comparison of the Probability positions using Gumbel's, california, hazens method.

2.1.1. Gumbel's Method

The General principle involved in the method is of the observed flood peaks could be
calculated. The curve of probabilities versus flood peaks (f V s. x) is then plotted on log-
probability paper and a smooth curve is fitted covering all points be extrapolation of the curve
extreme values could be obtained.

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 A Case Study on Flood Frequency Analysis

This extreme value distribution was introduced by Gumbel and is known as Gumbel's
Method. It is widely used probability distribution functions for extreme values in
hydrological studies or prediction of flood peaks, maximum rainfall etc. The method and
procedure for calculating the design flood in any return period. The hypothetical plotting by
Gumbel (1945) is in light of the presumption that the watched esteem is the most likely, or
modular, estimation of this rank of flood. Its arrival period is along these lines skewed
towards the method of the hypothetical circulation. The Gumbel hypothesis does not have any
significant bearing entirely to flood for the accompanying reasons. The Gumbel method of
frequency analysis is based on extreme value distribution and uses frequency factors
developed for theoretical distribution. By using the number of years and Gumbel's correction,
calculated the Return period using equation 1 to equation 5.
(1)

where is return period(or)recurrence interval, N is Number of years ,m is order

number
After calculation of " "calculate the reduced variant Yt is found With the values of Yn
and Xn obtained and Yt obtained. The frequency factor Kt is calculated
( ( ))
(2)

where . (3)
.

Standard deviation ( = √ ( − ). (4)

Probability exceedance ( = ). (5)

2.1.2. Procedure of Gumbel's Method

The list and the annual flood flow were arranged in the descending order and assigned as
mark "m" for highest value and so on. By considering the values, calculated the return
period(or)recurrence interval and probability positions. And then calculated the Mean value
519.64, squared mean 269921.81, mean of squares 452801.33, and standard deviation for
Gumbel's method 17.59. Using standard deviation and frequency factors, calculated the
amount of flood discharge. The area of prakasam barrage is 252.65 Sq.km. By considering
the area and the amount of flood discharge, total flood discharge is calculated.

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The calculation of return period for the California method gives a maximum value of 50 and
minimum value of 1.02,maximum and minimum value for Gumbel's method is 89.28 and 1,
and for the maximum and minimum value for Hazen's method is 25 and 1. Based on the
results, the best fit method is Gumbel's method which was carried in Vijayawada aimed at
Prediction of Flood frequency analysis of Krishna river of Prakasam barrage. Figure1. gives
comparison between the three methods and which indicates that the data, points are very
close and can be observed smooth curve. The following table2 gives the Recurrence interval
for Gumbel's method and table 3 gives the probability positions for the Gumbel's method. By
estimating the flood frequency in sight of the areas surrounded by Vijayawada, then the flood
comes out to be for 20 years flood will be1823.33 TMC and will be the estimated flood
discharge for the coming 50 years be 1873.34 TMC.

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 Kalpalatha.Ganamala and P. Sundar Kumar

Table 2 Calculation of Recurrence Interval for Gumbel's Method

Flood in descending Gumbel's method
Year Flood Discharge "m" Values ( )
order
1990 982 1 1419.06 89.28
1991 1230.27 2 1230.27 18.11
1992 344.67 3 1215 10.41
1993 586.71 4 1207.27 7.352
1994 1419.06 5 982 5.53
1995 269.05 6 974.11 4.504
1996 557.12 7 881.49 3.8167
1997 584.76 8 586.71 3.29
1998 1207.27 9 584.76 2.910
1999 394.98 10 557.12 2.58
2000 249.88 11 501.92 2.34
2001 69.98 112 421.6 2.144
2002 14.41 13 399.16 1.963
2003 2.18 14 394.98 1.82
2004 10.05 15 344.67 1.69
2005 1215 16 322.49 1.58
2006 974.11 17 269.05 1.48
2007 881.49 18 249.86 1.4
2008 322.49 19 221.49 1.33
2009 501.92 20 70.86 1.2575
2010 421.6 21 69.98 1.1973
2011 221.49 22 53.27 1.14
2012 53.27 23 14.41 1.08
2013 399.16 24 10.05 1.04
2014 70.86 25 2.18 1

Table 3 Calculation of Probability Positions

Probability
Plotting
X in descending order +1 positions
= > =
+1
1419.06 26 3.84 2013731.2
1230.27 13 7.69 1513564.27
s1215 8.7 11.5 1476225
1207.27 6.5 15.3 1457500.853
982 5.2 19.23 964324
974.11 4.3 23.02 948890.92
881.49 3.7 26.92 777024.62
586.71 3.3 30.76 344228.62
584.76 2.9 34.61 341944.25
557.12 2.6 38.46 310382.69
501.92 2.4 42.30 260018.40
421.6 2.2 46.15 177746.56
399.16 2 50 159328.70
394.98 1.9 53.84 155377.87
344.67 1.7 57.69 118797.40
322.49 1.6 61.53 103999.80
269.05 1.5 65.38 72387.90
249.86 1.4 69.23 62430.01
221.49 1.4 73.07 49057.82
70.86 1.3 76.92 5021.13
69.98 1.2 80.76 4897.20
53.27 1.2 84.61 2837.69
14.41 1.1 88.46 207.64
10.05 1.1 92.3 101
2.18 1.0 96.15 7.89

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 A Case Study on Flood Frequency Analysis

Table 4 Calculation of Discharge Using Various Return Periods

Return period T Mean ( ) (Standard (frequency × = + ×
in years deviation) factor) (TMC)
5 519.64 17.59 0.913 16.0569 1744.57
10 519.64 17.59 1.615 28.40785 1784.78
20 519.64 17.59 2.289 40.26351 1823.33
50 519.64 17.59 3.161 55.60199 1873.34

4. CONCLUSIONS
According to the last 25 years history the maximum outcome in 1994 the amount of flood
discharge is 1419.06 TMC. And the second maximum flood discharge is happens in 1991
with the amount of flood discharge 1230.27 TMC. By using the Gumbel's method calculated
the value for the future prediction which may include the surrounding areas of the
Vijayawada. Gumbel's method is the best method for the prediction of flood in the future. The
estimated flood discharge for the coming 20 years will be1823.33 TMCand will be the
estimated flood discharge for the coming 50 years be 1873.34 TMC.

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