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Ambit Good & Clean Smallcap Fund (Emerging Giants) : Portfolio Management Services
Ambit Good & Clean Smallcap Fund (Emerging Giants) : Portfolio Management Services
Ambit Good & Clean Smallcap Fund (Emerging Giants) : Portfolio Management Services
60 60
entertainment
ANR:38; ADV: ANR:38; P/E 35x
Rs1,121m
Jubilant
Jubilant Foodworks
40 Foodworks 40
ANR 32; P/E 93x
ANR 32; ADV:
Rs2,655m
30 30
TV Today
Garware Wall Network
Ropes ANR: 5; P/E 21x
20 20
ANR: 1; ADV:
Rs23m Garware Wall Panasonic Carbon
Ropes ANR:1;
TV Today Network ANR: 1; P/E: 22x P/E 22x
10 ANR: 5; ADV: Panasonic Carbon 10
Rs108m ANR: 1;
ADV:Rs2m
0 0
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Market Cap Rank Market Cap Rank
Size of bubble signifies ADV- Average Daily Traded value (6 months) Size of Bubble signifies FY2018 P/E Ratio (x)
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital Research. Data s of June 30, 2018 Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital Research.
Growth runway
• How scalable are the company’s
2. Scale operations?
Category Ratios
25%
(1) CFO/EBITDA
Dec’10-Dec’16
Pain” “Zone of
(4) Provisioning for doubtful debts as a
10% Darkness”
proportion of debtors more than six
months
5%
(1) Cash yield
(2) Change in reserves (excluding share 0%
Balance sheet misstatement premium) to net income excluding D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10
checks dividends -5%
(3) Contingent liability as a proportion of
-10%
net worth
(1) Miscellaneous expenses as a
Accounting Score based deciles
-15%
proportion of total revenues
Pilferage checks (2) CWIP to Gross Block
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; Note: This chart plots the median share price
(3) Cumulative CFO plus CFI to median performance of sub-BSE500 firms with median accounting scores for deciles constructed
revenues only on the basis of accounting quality.
(1) CAGR in auditors remuneration to Period: Dec’10-Dec’16
Audit quality checks
CAGR in consolidated revenues
Methodology
We look at six years of consolidated financials for the BSE500 universe of firms. Ambit’s forensic accounting framework (HAWK) is a
We first rank stocks on each of the 11 ratios individually (outlined in the table
on the left) within a sector. proprietary tool only available to Ambit’s clients.
These ranks are then cumulated across parameters to give a final pecking
order on accounting quality for stocks within each sector
50%+ on each
Parameter
Filtering Process 80th Percentile Overall
Filters for RoCE +
1. Ambit’s Forensic Accounting Screen: Eliminating Debt ratios
‘Zone of Darkness’ candidates.
Constant monitoring
& review
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 7
Ambit Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
Look back at a 2012 emerging giant!
Days
30% 30
819 830 1,000 6,000
20% 20
585 4,000
500
10% 10 2,000
0% - 0 -
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012
EBITDA (INR Mn) Gross Profit - Interest/Sales Revenue (INR Mn) Receivable Days
Greater scale in turn led to greater asset efficiency… … culminating in improving cash conversion and RoCEs
Gross Block Gross Fixed Asset Turnover RoCE (%) Cash Conversion cycle
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 9
Ambit Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
This company was Kajaria Ceramics; MCap up 7x since!
Margins expand on rising scale and value added products As a % of
Key Drivers of Kajaria's success FY2012 FY2017
Prudent investments in branding Successful expansion of high Sales
and distribution deepened its margin vitrified tiles along with
25 competitive advantages JV strategy boosts efficiency 35,000
Prudent increase in brand
18.9 19.4 investments and distribution: Led to
20 30,000 A&P Spend 1.7% 3.1%
15.7 15.5 15.6 16.2 increasing market share while reducing
need for discounts /dealer commissions
15 25,000
9.6 9.9
10 6.8
8.0 20,000
6.2 6.6
JV production 5% 33%
5 15,000 Building scale efficiently via Joint
Ventures: Resulted in adding capacities
0 10,000 at relatively low costs while minimizing
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 inefficient outsourced production Outsourced 35% 10%
Production
Revenue (INR Mn) EBITDA M% PAT Margins (%)
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
60%
58.8% 55.6% 20% 18.0%
44.9% 15.2%
38.0% 15% 13.4%
37.6% 36.6%
40% 32.7% 29.9%
10%
20% 13.7%
7.80% 5%
3.73% 3.40% 2.68%4.26% 4.02%
0% 0%
-0.35% -0.82%
2013 2014 2015-3.12% 2016 2017 Emerging Emerging BSE Smallcap BSE 500 Nifty
-9.57%
-20% Giants Giants CAGR
Emerging Giants BSE Smallcap BSE 500 Nifty Median Return
Returns
Source: Bloomberg, Ace Equity, Ambit Capital Research. *Median Returns are for the portfolio only. All returns are net of assumed transaction costs and include reinvested dividends.
10%
4.9%
5%
1.9% 1.9% 1.7%
1.0%
0.2%
0%
1M 3M 6M 9M 1Y Since Inception
Return (%)
-1.7%
-5%
-8.3% -7.9%
-10%
-15% -13.5%
-17.1%
-20%
-23.5%
G&C Smallcap BSE Smallcap
-25%
Note: Performance post all fees and charges; Portfolio inception date is December 1, 2017. Returns as of 31st December, 2018
Market Leadership: More than half the companies in our portfolio dominate their market
niche/geography or are among the top 2 players in the field.
Focused Expertise: Companies that relentlessly focus on a specific product/service, allowing them to
excel within their circle of competence.
Consistent financial performance: Excellent financial track record with superior underlying
fundamentals.
Clean Accounting: Use of our proprietary forensic accounting framework (HAWK) to filter out firms with
suspect financials.
Growth potential above the comparable index Nifty 0.7x 22x 19x 6% 5% 16 14
Source: Bloomberg, Company, Ambit Capital Research; Index statistics as per Bloomberg; All Portfolio statistics are medians except for Debt/equity; Blended forwards are
based on Ambit estimates, while Index estimates are based on Bloom estimates; * P/E for BSE Small Cap is based on positive earnings and on total earnings the ratio will be
440x PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 13
Ambit Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
Optimal fund size: Rs200 crore
Ambit’s Good & Clean Smallcap (Emerging Giants) portfolio’s optimal fund
size is Rs200 crore, in our view, to protect the interests of investors by:
Rs200 crore offers sizing flexibility: At this level, we have the ability to own meaningful
positions in firms with market capitalizations as low as Rs100-200 crore if need be, thereby fulfilling
both our liquidity requirements as well as keeping with our fund’s style.
Investible universe is stocks that perform well on the two frameworks noted earlier. A further
Stock selection
subjective assessment then leads to a more concentrated stock portfolio
The investment horizon is 1-3 years and longer; turnover therefore should not exceed 30-
Time horizon and turnover
35% in a year
Not to take aggressive cash calls; this is keeping in mind the longer term investment horizon
Cash calls
of the fund and is suitable from a taxation standpoint
Fee Structure
Entry Load NIL
Fixed 2% p.a
Fixed 1% p.a
Fixed NIL
40%
R² = 0.0299
20%
0%
0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x 35x 40x 45x 50x
-20%
-40%
-60%
40%
R² = 0.0011
20%
0%
0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x 35x 40x 45x 50x
-20%
-40%
-60%
Moreover, the major small cap rerating this year has Similarly, small caps with good accounting quality continue
predominantly played out in firms with poor RoCEs to be ignored in the current environment
40%
Average P/B Rerating vs FY16 RoCE (Nov'16-Nov'17) Rerating in EV/EBITDAs Rerating in P/Es Rerating in P/Bs
100% 34.0%
35%
R² = 0.898
31.4%
0% 10%
-10 0 10 20 30 40 Quintile1 Quintile2 Quintile3 Quintile4 Quintile5
FY2016 RoCE
Source: Ace Equity, Bloomberg; Note: (i) Universe – Ambit’s sub-BSE500 HAWK universe (~900 Source: Ace Equity, Bloomberg; Note: (i) Universe – Ambit’s sub-BSE500 HAWK universe
stocks); (ii) Q1 = Top 20% percentile in FY2016 RoCE; ( iii ) Negative P/B ratios are excluded; (~900 stocks); (ii) Q1 = Top 20% Accounting Quality; Period – Nov’16: Nov’17’. Figures are
median reratings
Poor quality firms (on FY2016 RoCEs) have seen the Firms with poor accounting have seen their stocks
highest rerating, with the worst quintile seeing an rerate the highest over the past year on a P/B,
~80% jump in their multiples on average EV/EBITDA and P/E basis.
Small caps with good accounting quality trade at a discount Similarly, small caps with high returns on capital remain
to firms in the lowest quality quintile amongst the least expensive
FY2017 Valuation Multiples vs Accounting Quintiles FY2017 Valuation Multiples vs FY2017 RoCEs
50x
30x 29x 46x
45x
25x 25x
25x 24x
23x 40x
35x
20x
29x
30x
15x
15x 25x 23x
13x 22x 22x
12x 11x 11x
20x
10x 15x
15x 12x
10x 11x
10x
5x
5x
0x 0x
FY17 EV/EBITDA FY17 P/E FY17 EV/EBITDA FY17 P/E
Quintile1 Quintile2 Quintile3 Quintile4 Quintile5 Quintile1 Quintile2 Quintile3 Quintile4 Quintile5
Source: Ace Equity, Bloomberg; Note: (i) Universe – Ambit’s sub-BSE500 HAWK universe (~900 Source: Ace Equity, Bloomberg; Note: (i) Universe – Ambit’s sub-BSE500 HAWK universe
stocks); (ii) Q1 = Top 20% Accounting Quality; ( iii ) Negative P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios are (~900 stocks); (ii) Q1 = Top 20% in RoCEs ; (iii) Negative P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios are
excluded; (iv) Data as of Nov 30 2017 excluded; (iv) Data as of Nov 30 2017 (V). Quintile 5- P/E ratio stands at 211x
For similar ROCEs, good quality small caps significantly cheaper versus large
caps
40x
35x
25x
15x
10x
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18
• Ambit Investment Advisors Private Limited (“Ambit”) is a registered Portfolio Manager with Securities and Exchange Board of India vide
registration number INP000005059.
• This presentation is strictly for information and illustrative purposes only and should not be considered to be an offer, or solicitation of
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Contd..
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 24
Ambit Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
Disclaimer
• You are expected to take into consideration all the risk factors including financial conditions, Risk-Return profile, tax consequences, etc.
You understand that the past performance or name of the portfolio or any similar product do not in any manner indicate surety of
performance of such product or portfolio. You further understand that all such products are subject to various Market Risks, Settlement
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instructions given by you whether orally or in writing.
• The product ‘Ambit Good & Clean Portfolio’ has been migrated from Ambit Capital Private Limited to Ambit Investments Advisors
Private Limited. Hence some of the information in this presentation may belong to the period when this product was managed by Ambit
Capital Private Limited.
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