What are the critical issues in China’s foreign policy?

• Taiwan ;

• Japan unconditionally surrendered in 1945, under the plan drawn up by the allies Taiwan
was returned to China which was now under the Nationalist Government

• The end of the colonial rule brought a lot of changes —> the newly aquired
language/cultural skills were now degraded into a potential liability ——> the Nationalists
weren’t too bothered about Taiwan as they wanted to gain back the rest of China —> no
attention paid to the Taiwanese desire for equality —-> their resources were sent off to the
mainland as the Nationalists needed wealth to fight off the Communists —-> a lot of
disputes occurred over the confiscation of assets formerly owned by the Japanese

• Early 1947 a single event of police brutality led to an island wide popular uprising —>
harsh military crackdown by the nationalists —> many people were persecuted —->to
placate the incident the Nationalists upgraded Taiwan from a special military zone to a
province and called for immediate elections Chiang replaced Chen Yi with Wei Tao-ming
who was a civilian —> but these measures came too late

• The event of 1947 had a massive impact on the Taiwanese —> Taiwanese nationalism was
converted into a burgeoning independence movement launched first by the native elites
who went in exile to Japan —-> the Nationalists also found it difficult to reconstruct a
cultural/ethnic unity between the mainlanders and native Taiwanese through state
sponsored resinicization programmes —> but it did lead to the native elites conjuring up
political passiveness and political acquiescence

• Chiang retreated to Taiwan during the end of the Civil War —-> but when the Korean War
happened the Nationalists lease on the island was increased, it got US aid to keep itself and
its army afloat —->1954 US institutionalised its security commitment to Taiwan under the
US-ROC mutual defence treaty

• After his defeat on the mainland —-> Chiang decided to take on political restructuring
with an ambitious party reorganisation plan

• The party reorganisation created a structure of power centralisation —> helped KMT
establish its hegemonic presence in society

• What kept the KMT’s power afloat was the support from the US and the US-initiated intl
recognition including membership in the UN and Security Council (before 1971)

• Under US pressure Chiang also gave up his plans to attack the mainland —-> Kennedy
regime —-> thus KMT had to change its historical mission from anti-communist to self-
defence

• US intervention was also important in the economic reforms of the 1960s —> set Taiwan
on the path of export-oriented industrialisation —> US threat to reduce aid package led
Taiwan to take on the economic/financial reform —-> this change also built a new
 relationship between the nationalist regime and native society , economic power shift to
private businesses

• Due to international pressure and intl legitimacy made it important to shift away from
authoritarianism to democracy —-> PRC-US rapprochement in early 1970s pulled the rug
under from the feet of the KMT leadership, it also lost its seat in the UN to the PRC in
1971 and there was de-recognition by major allies —-> in the detente period the rationale
for martial law decreased too and so to hold up its own legitimacy the Nationalist
Government had to open up the electoral process in 1972 and then continuously expanded

• Post-cold war there was receptiveness to self-determination, secession and autonomy —>
plus China’s plan as a major power aspirant was seen as a potential conflict by USA thus
hopes for independence in Taiwan grew

• Taiwan’s capital was changed to Taipei, this endowed a de facto sovereign status and
disenchanted the Taiwanese from the mainland Chinese —> recurring war preparation
against a possible attack from mainland also alienated the Taiwanese from the mainland
Chinese —-> all this increased hopes for independence

• Toward the end of 1990s, a new consensus on consolidating the sovereign status of the
ROC on Taiwan emerged.47 Recurring political participation under a democratic regime
helped develop a sense of collective con- sciousness among the people, transforming the
term "Taiwan" from a geographic unit to a political community and the term "Taiwanese"
from an ethnic term for native Taiwanese to a civic term for citizens of Taiwan.

• Most significantly, through indigenization and democratization, the so- ciety managed to
transform the raison d'etre of the state in a fundamental sense. The state was re-engineered
to foster the growth of Taiwanese nationalism and to consolidate the "re-imagined
community" both at home and in the international system

• A lot of US foreign policy goals are at stake over Taiwan —> promotion of democracy,
preservation of U.S credibility, loyalty to traditional allies & friends,
engagement/integration of an emerging power in the intl system, maintenance of peace in
Asia

• Taiwan’s recent democratisation has undermined China’s one-China policy —-> made
conflict b/w US and China more likely —-> US would also be interested in wanting to
maintain the ‘fragile peace’ in Taiwan —-> which could also lead to conflict

• President Chen Shui-bian was elected as the President of Taiwan —-> he advocated formal
independence and his party had no ties and lack of contact with Beijing —-> his
government has also questioned the PRC’s 1992 consensus on the One-China principle and
has rejected Beijings requirement for Taiwan to accept the principle as a pre-req for
dialogue —> Chen actually says that this one-china principle needs to be discussed first

• Taiwan has had de-facto independence —-> so it can’t be seen as independence by right
• PRC has used wrong tactics to deal with Taiwan —-> rather than focusing on building ties
with Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party, Beijing is more focused on developing ties
with the formerly ruling KMT party —-> Beijing only wants to come into dialogue with
those who agree with its interpretation of the one-China policy

• Also PRC has been using coercive tactics with a democracy (Taiwan) —> which will only
repeal it —-> rather than offering reconciliation Beijing continues to intimidate; rapid
deployment of missiles across the strait

• Also with Taiwan’s shift to democracy, now the public’s opinion has become very
important —-> democratic accountability forces Chen to limit any dramatic moves toward
PRC as the Taiwanese ppl prefer the status quo

• Taiwan’s shift to democracy is seen as a challenge to the CCP’s authority and legitimacy
—-> as long as this shift remains, the CCP will continue to see it as a challenge to its
authority because for CCP democracy is not consistence with Chinese values

• The PRC has regularly shelled Quemoy and Matsu —> Taiwanese islands

• Over the late 1980s and early 1990s Taiwan Strait has been remilitarised —> crisis began
when US sold an f-16 to Taiwan but Taiwanese said they bought it in reaction to PRCs
acquisition of SU-27 from Russia —-> this ‘action reaction’ has led both sides to intensify
their militaries

• Beijing sees all this weapon acquirement of Taiwan as a future missile defense and also as
a greater US-Taiwan defense cooperation which will embolden independence advocates on
the island

• Beijing and Taipei also lack military & political communication —> misinformation on
the developments on the other side lead to drawing up extreme strategies —> as cross-
strait flights and military exercises in increase misunderstandings are likely to lead to a
military conflict

• US has tried to remedy this situation by putting forth measures to build trust and improve
communication —> cold war measures like hot line, exercise notification etc have been
suggested —> but PRC ignores them as it wants to erode security and confidence in
Taiwan —> while Taiwan has traditionally rejected confidence building arrangements for
fear that US might step back from its defence commitments although it has shown some
interest in such measures in recent years

• US policy towards Taiwan Strait has been described as one of strategic ambiguity —> at
first it was primarily political, US said the dispute should be settled peacefully without
coercion —> however slowly the policy came to defined in military terms

• US policy of ambiguity has led to a lot of misinterpretation on both sides —> Taiwan
thinks US will support its independence, China thinks it will stand on the side
• 2000 presidential campaign bush criticised the policy of strategic ambiguity and he said
US will do whatever it takes to defend Taiwan —-> but later he said US adhered to the
one-china policy —-> this created a lot of confusion in Taiwan

• Mao and Deng were willing to wait for Taiwan’s integration, but today’s PRC regime is
becoming more impatient —> also due to Taiwans shift to democracy this impatience
increases —-> Beijing's February 2000 "white paper," for example, characterized the
situation in the Taiwan Strait as "complicated and grim," suggesting a growing pessimistic
sentiment that war is inevitable.

• The paper also suggested a new reason to use force to resolve the Taiwan issue ; island’s
indefinite refusal to negotiate reunification —-> shift seen in PRCs policy towards Taiwan
—-> threatened violence if Taiwan departs from the status quo—> more recently PRC has
suggested it will use force if Taiwan clings to the present system

• Parallel —-> Taiwan shows impatience regarding its lack of intl status —-> as a major
player in global trade & investment and as a burgeoning democracy it desires a significant
role in world affairs and an enhanced intl profile —-> this desire is likely to clash with
PRCs approach to Taiwan

• Beijing’s take on Taiwan can also be seen to be shifting to peaceful development thru no
independence no war ——> Shift seen as Deng focused on unification and Jiang Zemin
said unification would not be delayed —-> Hu however said that this is a long issue, he did
not set aside idea for unification, and he was more abt cooperation —->

• US tries to apply its political ideologies around the world —-> goes on to advance the
cause of democracy (Taiwan) —->Chinese suspicious that US would try to convert their
values also

• US - 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to defend Taiwan —> major break in its strategic
ambiguity on the issue

• Taiwan has been a critical issue between the two ; but things have changed since Taiwans
power transition of 2008 to the Nationalist Party —-> evolved from fragile, complex and
now to positive, cooperative relationship

• When Obama came to power in 2009 he said that he supported China’s One-China policy
in regards to Taiwan —-> hope seen to improve relations across the straits —> more
continuity than change seen from Bush to Obama

• After CCP took over mainland China US adopted policy to contain China, signed defence
treaty with KMT Taiwan, provided military aid to Taiwan and sent 7th fleet of US navy
into Taiwan strait, also encircled mainland china by establishing military alliances in East
and Southeast Asia, also implemented trade embargo and travel resstrictions against China
—-> since then Taiwan has become contentious issue b/w the two

• Relations with US
• Long term prospect is uncertain —-> many Americans see china’s growing global reach as
a threat to US dominance and status quo

• US always supicious of China’s intentions and the challenges it poses economically,

politically, military —-> while China believes US will overturn its communist rule, blame
China for poor human rights and intervene in internal affairs like Tibet & Taiwan

• China has become increasingly important for US —-> China is US 2nd largest trading
partner, it is largest holder of foreign currency reserves in US dollars, largest foreign
creditor of US, largest holder of US treasury bonds

• But with China’s embracing of market economy, free trade and globalisation US is on the
defensive —> protectionist sentiments —-> fear of losing US manufacturing jobs to China
has provoked intense lobbying against Chine made products by many US trade unions and
domestic producers —-> accusations concerning china’s labor rights/human rights
violations —-> many camps in US now want to minimise economic/military threats from
China —-> US asked china to appreciate its currency, anti-dumping investigations & trade
sanctions against China have grown —-> US been upgrading military and bases in East
Asia

• Diff political regimes/ideologies, disputes over human rights, trade conflicts, interest
conflicts, clashing political objectives in regional and global affairs, rising power of China
and its implication for US domination

• Taiwan issue will continue to be difficult challenge facing the 2 countries —> US has
maintained One China policy since normalisation but has continued to sell arms to Taiwan
which has led to grievances in China ——> US sees Taiwan as traditional sphere of
influence in Asia and uses it as leverage to deal w china , while China sees Taiwan as
internal affairs and core national interest that should be free from US interference —-> US
fears that over time china can develop a military force that can discourage American
leadership from risking war w china for Taiwan , thus it needs Taiwan to be democratic to
counter rising power of China while China sees US as barrier to unification

• China’s border/maritime territorial disputes with neighbouring states could be another

reasons in the East and Southeast regions that could challenge US-China leadership in
dealing w those disputes —-> China sees these issues as threats to its national security —-
> esp regarding Sino-Japanese tension over gas/oil reserves beneath East China Sea and
territorial quarrel over Diaoyo/Senkaku islands as well as South China Sea dispute b/w
China and Southeast Asian countries —-> Beijing knows escalation could worsen
international environment cause it would be faced by the combined forces of both Japanese
and US —-> China is suspicious of US military cooperation in the region and sees US as
factor of hinderance in any kind of resolution in its favour —-> after WW2 US sees the
region as its traditional sphere of influence and sees its military presence as imp to
maintain status quo —-> CONFLICT
• China knows US maintains security circle against China along Asian Pacific rim thru
bilateral military agreements with Japan, South Korea other Asian Pacific countries —->
Chinese see this as US attempt to stop china from rising, many US ppl see China’s military
modernisation as aggressive too ——> mutual suspicion continues

• America’s military wins since 1991 and technologising military also threaten China. Xi
wants to make China great again. Xi focuses on using its economic miracle, fostering
patriotism and bowing to no other power in world affairs. China has lost Manchuria and
Taiwan in the past to the Japanese —-> 1937—> Japanese occupied much of China thru a
brutal campaign (National humiliation) —> Xi wants to revive nationalism —-> wants
china to go thru a 3rd economic revolution and also wants to reorganise/rebuild china’s
military. Xi’s big plan aims to make china’s economy greater than US, be number one, and
make the party the worthy vanguard of the people (ideology again)

• But relations can also be seen as co-operative (MAD, cooperation, economic

interdependence  improvement over Taiwan issue)

• Domestic needs driving foreign policy

• It seems as if domestic needs are driving foreign policy —-> China’s deep reform requires
a peaceful environment —-> a problem in reform could distort the other, while a problem
in peaceful environment could distort reform

• Foreign trade and FDI imp for development —-> these two will be disrupted if China
participates in any armed conflict —-> to achieve economic goals China has improved
relations with many countries, ideological obstacles to improve relations have been
removed

• There are however many challenges to China’s peaceful development —-> key q is
whether its growth is sustainable —-> natural resources are way below average, needs to
shit to renewable energy —-> due to high production, pollution levels have grown,
environment is getting ruined, this has negative effects on human health and living
standards —-> there is lack of co-ordination b/w economic & social development, with
growth in economy, socio-economic disparities rise, inflation rises, health care and
education is backward, rising social tensions are seen —> serious social reform and
political restructuring needed

• China and the region

• China’s relationship with Southeast Asia has been difficult but has improved —> major
problem was Vietnamese nationalism which is very anti-chinese, China also has concerns
with the Korean Peninsula over nuclearisation and since its so close to Beijing they’re not
happy
• China’s relations with Japan ; functional relationship but tension over islands and WW2 —
> as well as military presence of US —-> but with the RCPP b/w China and ASEAN
relations have improved

• Relations with India

• Relations with Pakistan

• US trying to make relation with Japan, Australia, New Zealand against China

• China is trying to make good neighborhood relations to reduce its economic dependence
on US - and also to move up towards high-tech production

• All of these investments dont stand alone, have an impact on the Chinese economy —> if
this becomes a major economic development, then this will begin to challenge America’s
dominance —-> wants a shift to a new model where state owned companies play a more
central role as an economic power —-> can be seen as why US is hostile, why they see it
as a challenge —-> every port can become a military port, potential is real and worries US