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18th Electric Power Survey of India PDF
18th Electric Power Survey of India PDF
The 18 Electric Power Survey Committee (EPSC) was constituted in Feb.,2011 with the following terms of reference:-
i) To forecast the year wise electricity demand projection for each State, Union Territory, Region and All India in detail up to the end of 12th Plan i.
e. for the years 2012-13 to 2016-17.
ii) To project the perspective electricity demand up to the 13th & 14th Five Year Plans i.e. year 2021-22 & 2026-27.
A Brain Storming Session & 1st meeting of EPSC was held in August, 2010 to elicit the views/suggestions of Eminent Experts and Members of
the EPSC for deciding the details and action plan for taking up 18th EPS. Based on the deliberations, the Committee decided to use Partial End
Use Method (PEUM) for conducting the EPS. On account of rapid urbanization, development of SEZs, industrial states and dedicated freight
corridors etc. which would have significant impact on the perspective electricity demand in various categories of consumption in 12th Plan and
beyond, the committee decided to enlarge the scope of 18th EPS by including EPS of Mega Cities, NCR, Delhi. The Committee also decided that
the results of EPS carried out by PEUM method be validated by using econometric model.
Accordingly, the 18th report of Electric Power Survey of India is being brought out in four volumes as per details given below:-
Volume I - All India 18th EPS /Region /State/UT wise Electric Power, Survey of India.
Volume II - Electric Power Survey of Mega Cities
Volume III - Electric Power Survey of NCR, Delhi
Volume IV - 18 ' EPS of India [by econometric model]
The 2nd & 3rd meeting of 18th EPSC were held in March, 2011 & June, 2011 respectively to discuss the preliminary forecast of states, revised
action plan for completing the studies and consultation with State Utilities/State Electricity Regulatory Commissions and draft report of 18th EPS
of India (Volume -1).
The Committee in its 3rd meeting accepted the draft report in principle and directed CEA to finalize the same after considering the views/
suggestions of various states. Accordingly, the revised draft report was completed in October, 2011. The details of electricity demand forecast for
each state was sent to the concerned states by Email/Speed Post and the draft report has been finalized after incorporating the views/
suggestions of concerned states.
The Authority in its meeting held on 19th December, 2011 deliberated the report of 18th EPS (Vol-I) and accorded concurrence for its publication.
A brief Note outlining the results of the forecast of 18th EPS (Vol. I) is given in Annex for information of Ministry of Power.
General
Periodic Electric Power Survey (EPS) of the country is conducted by CEA to forecast State/Union Territory-wise/All India Electricity demand on
short, medium and long term basis as a foremost planning exercise to base subsequent planning activities. The forecast of electricity demand is
an important input for power sector planning to optimally utilize scarce resources. EPS were earlier being conducted annually up to year 1982
(11th Electric Power Survey). Thereafter, five year Plan-wise EPS were undertaken from 12th Electric Power Survey onwards.
The 17th EPS, the latest in the series of Electric Power Surveys, was carried out by CEA and its report was published in March, 2007. It covered
the forecast of year-wise electricity demand for each State/ UT/ Region/ All India in details up the end of 11th Plan viz. 2011-12 as well as the
perspective electricity demand for the terminal years of 12th & 13th Five Year Plan i.e. 2016-17 and 2021-22.
The 18th Electric Power Survey Committee (EPSC) was constituted in February, 2010 with the following Terms of Reference:-
i) To forecast the year wise electricity demand projection for each State, Union Territory, Region and All India in detail up to the end of 12th Plan i.
e. for the years 2012-13 to 2016-17.
ii) To project the perspective electricity demand for the terminal years of 13th & 14th Five Year Plans i.e. year 2021-22 & 2026-27.
The work of 18th EPS was taken up by CEA as per guidelines/directions of 18th EPSC. A brainstorming session-cum-1st Meeting of the EPSC
was held in August, 2010 to discuss the methodology to be adopted, proformae to be used for conducting EPS and modalities for collection/
compilation of the input data from various State utilities and other concerned organizations/departments. It was also decided that unlike earlier
power surveys, the scope of 18th EPS be enlarged to cover EPS of Mega cities on account of rapid urbanization, development of SEZs, industrial
estates and dedicated freight corridors which would have significant impact on the perspective electricity demand in various categories of
consumption in 12th Plan and beyond.
The 2nd Meeting of 18th EPSC was held in March, 2011 wherein Committee discussed the preliminary forecast of 15 Nos. States/UTs and
reviewed the action plan for completing studies. The EPSC emphasized on the need for consultation with State utilities and State Electricity
Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) to study the pattern of growth of consumption in various categories, programmes of reducing the T&D losses
and implementation of steps/measures for improvement of energy efficiency.
The EPSC decided that the report of the 18th EPS be prepared in the following four volumes:-
Volume - I
All India 18th EPS /Region /State/UT wise - September, 2011
Volume - II
Electric Power Survey of Mega Cities - February, 2012
Volume - III
Electric Power Survey of NCR, Delhi - June, 2012
Volume - IV
18th EPS of India [by econometric model] - October, 2012
EPSC in its 3rd meeting held in June, 2011, discussed the draft report of 18th Electric Power Survey (Volume-I). The Committee accepted the
draft report in principle and directed to CEA to finalize the same after considering the views/suggestions of State authorities.
Consultations with State Authorities and State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs):
The preliminary forecast of electricity demand of various states prepared by CEA was discussed in the meetings with State TRANSCOs, State
Electricity Boards/Departments as well as SERCs to elicit their views on the growth rate in various categories of electricity consumption, policies/
programmes launched by the respective State Governments to strengthen the infrastructure for transmission and distribution and steps/measures
being proposed to be taken for improvement of energy efficiency programme for reduction of Transmission & Distribution Losses, implementation
of various programmes for rural electrification and Demand Side Management which would have bearing on the electricity demand in the
foreseeable future.
The input data including proposal of States/UTs for demand projection were scrutinized and discussed before incorporating in the report EPS.
Apart from growth in electricity demand, there would also be marginal reduction due to implementation of various steps/measures for
improvement of energy efficiency.
The 17th EPS had broadly encompassed the aims and objectives of National Electricity Policy (NEP) [notified in 2005] such as access to
electricity by 2012, electricity demand to be fully met by 2012, increase in the per capita availability of electricity to 1000 units by 2012 and
reduction of T&D Losses to be in line with international practices by the year 2012. The objectives of NEP are partially fulfilled as T&D Losses in
various States/UTs are still very high and the shortages of power continue to be prevailing in the country.
During the 11th Plan, Ministry of Power have introduced various programmes for improvement of energy efficiency and impetus has been given
on measures for utilities based demand side management with the objectives of reducing generation capacity, augmentation and strengthening of
T&D System. The National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE) was initiated in 2008 under the Nation Action Plan on Climate
Change (NACC) with the objective of enhanced energy efficiency by putting in place new initiatives. Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT)
mechanism launched for implementation of NMEEE is a market based mechanism to enhance cost effectiveness for improvement in energy
efficiency in nine identified different types of energy intense industries. The main aspects taken into consideration for electricity demand
forecasting for 18th EPS are policies/programmes launched by Government of India and states during 11th Plan which would impact on the
electricity demand in. domestic, commercial and industrial categories of consumption. The state authorities in their programmes submitted to CEA
have worked out projections after considering the effects of implementation of such policies/programmes.
Methodology
Partial End Use methodology (PEUM), a combination of time series analysis and End Use Method is a proven method for demand forecasting
and has been used for earlier EPS by CEA. In line with directions of EPSC, PEUM has been used to forecast electricity demand for 18th EPS.
The time series method has been used to derive growth indicators giving higher weightage to recent trend so as to incorporate benefits of energy
conservation initiatives and new technologies. The input data for period 2003-04 to 2009-10 was scrutinized for EPS. The year-wise and State-
wise/UT-wise electricity energy requirement has been worked out up to end of 13th Plan (2021-22) on the basis of data for year 2009-10 which is
taken as base year after adding one time shortages to electrical energy available.
The 18th EPS has conducted short/medium term forecast for next 10 years viz. 12th Plan and 13th Plan period so as to facilitate the states/
utilities to achieve their programme for growth of demand, T&D losses reduction, augmenting of T&D system. The forecast covers demand for
various categories of consumption viz. Domestic, Commercial, Public Lighting, Public Water Works, Irrigation, Industrial (LT, HT less than 1 MW
each, HT 1 MW and above each), Railway Traction & Bulk Non-Industrial HT Supply. The long term projections cover the made forecast for
terminal years of 14th Plan and 15th Plan period.
According to 18th EPS the All India energy requirements in 2016-17 is assessed to be 1354.58 BU as against forecast of 1392.06 BU as per 17th
EPS. The peak power demand in 2016-17 is assessed to be 199540 MW as against 218209 MW estimated as per 17th EPS. The State-wise/UT-
wise/region-wise and All India details of short-term projections' of energy requirements by end of 12th Plan (2016-17) and 13th Plan (2021-22)
and the long-term projections of energy requirements by end of 14th Plan (2026-27) and 15th Plan (2031-32) are given in Annex-I The short-term
peak load demand projections by end of 12th Plan (2016-17) & 13th Plan (2021-22) and the long-term projections of peak load by end of 14th
Plan (2026-27) and 15th Plan (2031-32) are given in Annex-II.
Table 1.1 indicates, Region wise short-term forecast of energy requirements of peak load for the end of 12th Plan (2016-17) and 13th Plan (2021-
22)as well as for long term forecast for terminal years of 14th Plan (2026-27) and 15th Plan (2031-32).
Table 1.1
Region wise summary of projections for Energy Requirements (MU) and Peak Load (MW)
The year-wise forecast of energy requirement during 12l Plan period is given below in Table 1.2.
Table 1.2
According to 18th EPS, the All India Transmission & Distribution Losses for the base year 2009-10 are 25.36%. Based on the of consultations
with State utilities/SERCs regarding their strategy and the steps being taken to reduce the T&D losses, it is expected that the All India T&D losses
could be reduced to 18.90% by the end of 12th Plan which could further be brought down to 15.39% by the end of 13th Plan. The states which
have performed well are expected to reduce the T&D Losses to around 15% by the end of 12th Plan whereas the poorly performing states which
have yet to implement the upgradation of infrastructure for T&D system may be in a position to reduce losses to around 15%> by the end of 13th
Plan. The region wise information regarding expected T&D Losses by the end of 12th & 13th Plans are given below in Table 1.4.
Table 1.4
The forecast of All India Energy Consumption, Energy Requirements, T&D Losses and for 2011-12 and terminal years of 12th 13th & 14th Plans
as per 18th EPS are given in Table 1.5 below:
Table 1.5
The year-wise all India category-wise forecast of energy consumption, energy requirements, peak load T&D losses and load factor for 12th & 13th
Plan period is given in Annex-Ill.
The study of the pattern of utilization of electricity for 2009-10 indicates that the major part of consumption viz 35.34% is for the industrial category
followed by 25.07% in domestic category whereas in the irrigation category the utilization is 21.02% and in commercial category the utilization is
10.16% and the remaining 8.40% is on account of consumption in other categories. The results of 18th EPS indicate that by the end of 12th Plan,
the trends is likely to marginally change and increase in the pattern utilization in domestic and commercial categories is anticipated whereas
marginal decrease in the consumption in the irrigation category is expected. The summary of the All India pattern of utilization in the major
categories of consumption is given below in Table 1.7:
Table 1.7
During the consultation with the State utilities most of the states indicated that separate feeders for meeting the rural & urban load requirements
are not being provided. The information on the consumption in urban and rural areas have been submitted by a few states. Based on the
available data and the details of consumption in respect of domestic, commercial categories, the pattern of utilization in rural and urban areas has
been worked out. For this purpose the consumption in agriculture/irrigation is treated to be rural category. The Region wise anticipated break-up
of Urban (domestic, commercial) consumption and Rural consumption (domestic, commercial & rural) by the end of 12 Plan (2016-17) is indicated
in Table 1.8.
Table 1.8
According to the EPS results on All India basis, the rural electricity consumption is likely to marginally decline from 60.89% in 2009-10 to 58.76%
by the end of 12th Plan 2016-17.
Annexure - I
18th Electric Power Survey Long Term Forecast of Electrical Energy Requirement at Power Station Bus Bars in MUs
(Utilities Only)
Annexure - II
18th Electric Power Survey Long Term Forecast of Peak Electric Load at Power Station Bus Bars in MW (Utilities
Only)
Annexure - III
All India
18TH ELECTRIC POWER SURVEY FORECAST ENERGY CONSUMPTION ,ENERGY REQUIREMENT AND PEAK LOAD
CATEGORY WISE & YEAR WISE SUMMERY OF FORECAST
Consumption 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Categories
Domestic 174634 193571 214189 237347 262202 289924 315335 339762 366224 394939 426148
Commercial & Misc. 70929 78308 86494 95497 105472 116535 128099 140506 154153 169173 185722
Public lighting 6971 7492 8054 8661 9315 10021 10675 11315 11995 12718 13488
Public Water Works 17532 18927 20436 22064 23829 25742 27651 29592 31677 33918 36329
Irrigation 142152 154010 166425 179784 194559 210611 225044 239194 254338 270524 287926
Industries LT 47339 52722 57977 63721 70010 76898 84096 91626 99714 108480 117984
Industries HT 197852 219607 240057 262437 286699 316408 339228 367341 397991 431358 467835
Railway traction 14374 15339 16437 17489 18635 19832 21055 22353 23714 25232 26810
Bulk Supply 22521 24288 26154 28247 30523 33024 35759 38754 42027 45622 49566
Total (Energy Consumption) 694304 764263 836224 915249 1001244 1098995 1186942 1280444 1381833 1491963 1611809
T&D losses -ML) 209708 220480 229347 238357 246836 255879 264040 271564 278950 286145 293052
T&D Losses in % 23.20 22.39 21.52 20.66 19.78 18.89 18.20 17.50 16.80 16.09 15.38
Energy Requirement - Ml 904012 984743 1065571 1153606 1248081 1354874 1450982 1552008 1660783 1778109 1904861
Annual Load Factor - % 81.28 80.48 79.85 79.21 78.29 77.51 77.37 77.21 77.05 76.87 76.71
Peak Load - MW 126959 139682 152329 166260 181988 199540 214093 229465 246068 264041 283470