The new Saudi power triangle

The allegiance ceremony for the trio in the new Saudi rule (King Salman bin
Abdul-Aziz, Crown Prince Muqrin and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Nayef) reflected the new Saudi power balance and a victory for the Sudairi
wing of the ruling family of the late King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz. Despite the
speed and the decisiveness to impose the Sudairi victory, the new Saudi
power balance still needs careful examination on the basis of the actual power
trio, which can be different than the official power trio.
SUMMARY⎙ PRINTWhile King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, Crown Prince Muqrin and Deputy
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef are the official positions of power in Saudi Arabia, the real
power triangle consists of third-generation princes Mohammed bin Salman, Mutib bin Abdullah and
Mohammed bin Nayef.

AUTHORMustzafa al LabbadPOSTEDJanuary 27, 2015

TRANSLATORRani Geha

The official power trio is made up of King Salman, Crown Prince Muqrin and
Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. However, the actual power trio is
made up of Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, Prince Mohammed bin Salman and
Prince Mutib bin Abdullah. Those three control Saudi Arabia’s three military
arms, which control the import and possession of weapons in the kingdom.
The three arms are the Department of Defense (bin Salman), the Ministry of
Interior (bin Nayef) and the National Guard (bin Abdullah). This fact is very
important in the calculations of the real force. There has been a lot of talk in
the past two days about Mutib losing his bid to become king. This is true,
because his rival Mohammed bin Nayef was appointed as deputy crown
prince. However, Mutib still holds the National Guard, which puts him in the
actual power triangle despite losing his royal ambition, at least for now.
On the other hand, amid the talk of the victory of Mohammed bin Nayef, the
appointment of Mohammed bin Salman as minister of defense, which has
traditionally been the preserve of the crown prince, augurs a power struggle.
This is because Mohammed bin Salman, by virtue of his posts, will be part of
the actual power triangle even with the appointment of Mohammed bin Nayef
as deputy crown prince. King Salman’s age (80) and the limited authority of
Prince Muqrin, 70, within the ruling family, because of his lack of influential
tribal roots, suggest that the king and the crown prince in fact embody a
transitional stage.

Mohammed bin Salman

Via the appointments announced by King Salman, the king’s son Prince
Mohammed bin Salman was made defense minister, becoming the youngest
minister of defense in the world at 34 years of age. Mohammed bin Salman
holds a very important portfolio as it concludes arms deals worth tens of
billions of dollars and has direct links to the US military-industrial complex and
major arms companies in the West. The new king’s son not only took the
defense portfolio but also the presidency of the Royal Court, after Khalid al-
Tuwaijri was dismissed. In practice, this means that the king’s son is
effectively the first chancellor.
The late King Abdullah issued a royal decree in 2013 appointing Mohammed
bin Salman as president of the crown prince’s court. Then another royal
decree appointed him as minister of state and Cabinet member. This came in
addition to his work as head of the crown prince’s court, in what appeared to
be a consolation prize for Mohammed bin Salman in exchange for other
changes and appointments that the late king used to pave the way for his son
Mutib.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman has a bachelor’s degree in management from

King Abdulaziz University in Riyadh. He hails from influential tribal roots. He is
a Sudairi like his father, the current king, and his cousin, Prince Mohammed
bin Nayef. His mother is Princess Fahda bint Falah bin Sultan and the
granddaughter of Rakan bin Hithalayn, the chief of the al-Ajman tribe. This
ensures the prince tribal support by way of his mother. The coming months
will show whether Prince Mohammed bin Salman is effective in managing the
important files and the relationship with the other two sides of the power
triangle — Mutib and Mohammed bin Nayef.

Mutib bin Abdullah

Prince Mutib bin Abdullah is the biggest loser in the new king’s decisions,
which made Mohammed bin Nayef his main rival and removed the Royal
Court Chief Khaled al-Tuwaijri, a close associate of the late King Abdullah.
The late king’s policies were an attempt to reduce Sudairi influence in the
Saudi government.

The road was difficult for the 61-year-old Prince Mutib. His father, despite
being a king in the absolute monarchy, was aware of the traditional influence
of the Sudairi bloc and the complexity associated with transferring power to
the third generation. This is especially troublesome since Mutib is not the
oldest among the descendants of the kingdom’s founder. King Abdullah
promoted his half-brother Muqrin to pave the way for his son Mutib later. So
he removed Prince Ahmed from the Ministry of Interior and then appointed
Muqrin deputy crown prince, a newly created post.

Prince Mutib graduated from the British Sandhurst Military Academy, from
which most Gulf princes graduate. He controls and heads the Royal Guard,
which is a military strike force that was headed by his father, the late king, for
decades. The power balance in Saudi rule did not allow for more than naming
a deputy crown prince who was a rival of Prince Mutib. The head of the
National Guard was not removed, which would have decisively ended the
battle with King Abdullah’s wing. This means that Prince Mutib still retains
some power and thus constitutes a part of the actual Saudi power triangle.

It is too early to speculate how Prince Mutib will manage the relations with the
rest of the power triangle, which seem politically and family-wise closer to
each other. But the upcoming battle to remove Mutib from the presidency of
the National Guard — to completely remove the late king’s supporters — will
not be easy because this institution has weapons, has the right to import
weapons and the majority of its officers are loyal to the late king and his son.

Mohammed bin Nayef

Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, 55, is the biggest winner in the
hierarchy of the new rule, which made him No. 3 after the king, who is old,
and the crown prince, who has limited influence in the power circle.

Prince Mohammed graduated in 1981 from Lewis and Clark College, in

Portland, Ore., with a bachelor’s degree in literature and political science.
Then he underwent training with the FBI between 1985 and 1988. His mother
is Princess Jawhar bint Abdul Aziz bin Mosaed bin Jalawi, who is from one of
the Al Saud branches. So Mohammad has a strong presence within the royal
family by way of his father, the former crown prince who belonged to Sudairi
wing.

Prince Mohammed bin Nayef has a good reputation in the United States. Two
years ago, he met President Barack Obama in Washington. At the time,
American newspapers said he was the “closest Saudi minister to the US
government.” When late King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz removed his brother
Prince Ahmad bin Abdul Aziz (from the Sudairi bloc) from the Ministry of
Interior to open the way for promoting the younger Prince Mutib bin Abdul
Aziz, Mohammed bin Nayef was appointed as Mutib’s deputy in the Interior
Ministry. This was an attempt to mitigate the effects of Ahmad’s removal
because the new minister is part of the Sudairi bloc.

It is true that Prince Mohammed bin Nayef is considered among the biggest
winners of the new arrangement, but the promotion of his cousin, Prince
Mohammed bin Salman as defense minister and as head of the royal court,
does not fully open the road in front of the deputy crown prince. This is even
though the defense minister has no place in the official power trio.

The actual power triangle consists of three Saudi princes of the third
generation. Their positions have changed in recent days, with some moving
up and others down. However, they have the necessary ambition and they
hold key power connections — the weapons.

In light of past experiences, it is expected that Mohammed bin Nayef and

Mohammed bin Salman will make an alliance against the third side of the
power triangle, Prince Mutib bin Abdullah. This will delay the potential
competition between them until after Mutib has been completely neutralized.
Until then, the pictures of the king, the crown prince and his deputy will
continue to decorate government institutions and official media. However,
those who know the real power triangle in Saudi Arabia know that Mohammed
bin Salman, Mutib bin Abdullah and Mohammad bin Nayef are the ones who
will be fighting for power in the coming period.