COVID-19 SIR Model

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Model parameters Default

Contact Rate 13.4

Transmissibility 2.0%

Duration of Infectiousness 10

% Needing Hospitalization 13.8%

% Needing ICU Care 4.7%

Mortality rate 0.9%

Reproduction Number (R0)

Models
Created by Alex Hoyt, RN, PhD
ahoyt1@mghihp.edu
Explanation of default value

Among 7,290 people in eight European countries, the average contacts per person was 13.4
with a country range of 7.95 (Germany) to 19.77 (Italy). Teenagers had the highest contact rate
(18) compared with adults 20-60 (13), and adults 60+ (8). The European average was used as
the default in the model.

The value used, 2.0%, was estimated by comparing the Reproduction Number (R0) in
community settings (1.4 to 3.9) with a normal contact rate and a cruise ship (14.8) which has a
high contact rate. R0 varies with contact rate whereas transmissibiliy and removal rate (inverse
of duration of infectiousness) were assumed constant.

Contact tracing data from 10 early cases in China showed the mean serial interval (time
between successive cases) was 7.5 days with a SD of 3.4 days. A more recent estimate among
468 cases was 3.96 days with a 4.75 day SD.

Among 44,672 confirmed COVID-19 cases in China, 13.8% required hospitalization.

Among 44,672 confirmed COVID-19 cases in China, 4.7% required ICU care.

As of 3/26/20, the average daily mortality rate of COVID19 is 0.9%

The number of secondary cases resulting from one case. It is the product of Contact Rate X
Transmissibility X Removal Rate. Estimates for COVID-19 have been between 1.4 to 3.9. The
inverse of R0 (1-(1/R0)) is the proportion of the population who need to be infected (or
vaccinated) for transmission to no longer be self-sustaining. R0 is also an indication of the
effectiveness of community interventions. An R0 less than 1 indicates transmission has
stopped.

no NPI
DIY SIR Model
NPI 3.15 - 4.30
NPI 3.15 - 4.30 & reactive
80%x4wks,20%x4wks
Range

The U.S. contact rate (at baseline) might be as low as Germany's (7.95) or as high as Italy's
(19.77) but is unlikely to be much different.
The important role for Contact Rate in the model is to show the effect of community
interventions. Research on the 1918 influenza epidemic shows that community interventions
decreased transmission 40%. Closing schools likely reduces the contact rate 50% (because it
impacts the population with the highest contact rate at baseline). Voluntary home quarantine
(infected person and all family members) likely reduces the contact rate 35%. Isolation of
infected persons only (not family members) likely reduces the contact rate 15%.

By comparison, the intrinsic transmissibility of 2009 influenza was estimated at 1.57% (SD
0.41).

The outside estimate (mean plus SD) in these studies was 8.71 to 10.9 suggesting a plausible
range of 9-11. (Note - the recommended lenth of quanantine is 14 days).

Severity of illness with COVID-19 is positively associated with age and the proportion of the
population over 65 is 11.9% in China vs 15.8% in the U.S. Conversely, the prevalence of smoking
is higher in China.

Severity of illness with COVID-19 is positively associated with age and the proportion of the
population over 65 is 11.9% in China vs 15.8% in the U.S. Conversely, the prevalence of smoking
is higher in China.

In the model, the Reproduction Number is the product of Contact Rate X Transmissibility X
Duration of Infection. Thus it can be changed by changing any of those parameters. That said,
Transmissibility and Duration of Infection should be relatively constant. Contact rate can vary
over time to simulate community actions like school closures, etc.

assumes no non-pharmacologic interventions (NPI)


same as "no NPI" at baseline - change as you wish
assumes an 80% reduction in Contact Rate (3.35) from 3/15 to 4/30
assumes an 80% reduction in Contact Rate (3.35) from 3/15 to 4/30 and then a reactive reduction of 20% (10.72)
starting 3/15, assumes an on/off strategy of repeating four weeks with 80% reduction in Contact Rate (3.35) followed by four
Sources

Mossong, J., Hens, N., Jit, M., Beutels, P., Auranen, K., Mikolajczyk, R., ... & Heijne, J. (2008).
Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS
medicine, 5(3). doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074

Bootsma, M. C., & Ferguson, N. M. (2007). The effect of public health measures on the
1918 influenza pandemic in US cities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
104(18), 7588-7593. doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0611071104

Rocklöv, J., Sjödin, H., & Wilder-Smith, A. (2020). COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond
Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health
countermeasures. Journal of Travel Medicine. DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taaa030

Riley, P., Ben-Nun, M., Armenta, R., Linker, J. A., Eick, A. A., Sanchez, J. L., ... & Riley, S.
(2013). Multiple estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 influenza pandemic based on
influenza-like-illness data from small US military populations. PLoS computational biology,
9(5). doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003064

Li, Q., Guan, X., Wu, P., Wang, X., Zhou, L., Tong, Y., ... & Xing, X. (2020). Early transmission
dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia. New England Journal
of Medicine. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

Du Z, Xu X, Wu Y, Wang L, Cowling BJ, Ancel Meyers L. (2020, June). Serial interval of


COVID-19 among publicly reported confirmed cases. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020
doi.org/10.3201/eid2606.200357

The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team. (2020) The
Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-
19) — China, 2020. China CDC Weekly, 2(8): 113-122. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-
6450.2020.02.003

The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team. (2020) The
Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-
19) — China, 2020. China CDC Weekly, 2(8): 113-122. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-
6450.2020.02.003
tive reduction of 20% (10.72)
n in Contact Rate (3.35) followed by four weeks of reactive reduction of 20% (10.72)
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Model Impact on healthcare system
350,000,000 14,000,000

300,000,000 12,000,000

250,000,000 10,000,000

8,000,000
200,000,000

6,000,000
150,000,000

4,000,000
100,000,000
2,000,000
50,000,000
-
0 1/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/20
1/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/2020 10/21/2020
# Needing Hospitalization
Susceptible Infected Recovered Deaths

Reproduction
Date Number Contact rate Transmissibility Susceptible

1/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,405


1/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.73
1/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.42
1/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.05
1/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,403.63
1/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,403.13
1/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,402.54
1/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,401.86
1/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,401.07
1/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,400.14
1/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,399.06
2/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,397.79
2/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,396.31
2/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,394.58
2/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,392.57
2/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,390.21
2/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,387.46
2/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,384.24
2/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,380.49
2/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,376.10
2/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,370.98
2/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,364.99
2/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,358.00
2/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,349.84
2/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,340.30
2/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,329.17
2/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,316.16
2/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,300.97
2/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,283.22
2/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,262.49
2/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,238.28
2/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,210.01
2/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,176.98
2/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,138.41
2/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,093.35
2/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,040.73
2/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,979.26
2/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,907.47
2/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,823.62
2/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,725.68
3/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,611.28
3/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,477.67
3/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,321.61
3/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,139.33
3/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,926.44
3/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,677.77
3/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,387.33
3/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,048.10
3/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,426,651.87
3/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,426,189.08
3/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,425,648.55
3/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,425,017.20
3/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,424,279.80
3/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,423,418.52
3/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,422,412.54
3/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,421,237.57
3/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,419,865.22
3/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,418,262.33
3/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,416,390.17
3/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,414,203.52
3/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,411,649.56
3/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,408,666.58
3/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,405,182.53
3/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,401,113.27
3/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,396,360.52
3/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,390,809.48
3/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,384,326.14
3/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,376,753.94
3/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,367,910.10
3/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,357,581.14
3/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,345,517.82
4/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,331,429.08
4/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,314,975.10
4/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,295,759.12
4/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,273,317.95
4/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,247,110.90
4/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,216,506.82
4/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,180,769.12
4/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,139,038.20
4/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,090,311.11
4/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,033,417.80
4/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,966,993.60
4/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,889,447.18
4/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,798,923.49
4/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,693,260.66
4/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,569,940.33
4/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,426,030.04
4/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,258,117.02
4/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,062,231.89
4/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 327,833,761.12
4/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 327,567,347.04
4/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 327,256,773.82
4/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 326,894,838.25
4/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 326,473,204.05
4/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 325,982,238.77
4/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 325,410,832.67
4/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 324,746,199.84
4/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 323,973,662.61
4/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 323,076,421.97
4/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 322,035,318.54
4/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 320,828,591.71
5/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 319,431,647.89
5/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 317,816,853.78
5/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 315,953,376.23
5/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 313,807,097.63
5/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 311,340,643.42
5/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 308,513,567.73
5/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 305,282,751.47
5/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 301,603,074.53
5/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 297,428,427.69
5/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 292,713,126.77
5/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 287,413,778.88
5/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 281,491,623.52
5/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 274,915,325.86
5/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 267,664,134.41
5/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 259,731,231.25
5/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 251,127,007.60
5/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 241,881,905.70
5/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 232,048,402.36
5/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 221,701,697.27
5/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 210,938,735.96
5/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 199,875,356.69
5/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 188,641,593.66
5/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 177,375,457.92
5/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 166,215,790.72
5/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 155,294,971.43
5/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 144,732,307.03
5/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 134,628,815.81
5/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 125,063,871.20
5/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 116,093,858.13
5/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 107,752,692.52
5/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 100,053,828.36
6/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 92,993,260.67
6/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 86,553,022.54
6/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 80,704,746.03
6/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 75,412,969.78
6/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 70,637,999.35
6/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 66,338,233.42
6/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 62,471,950.09
6/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 58,998,599.31
6/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 55,879,675.16
6/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 53,079,250.14
6/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 50,564,250.86
6/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 48,304,544.99
6/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 46,272,897.05
6/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 44,444,838.39
6/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 42,798,485.69
6/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 41,314,332.61
6/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 39,975,032.24
6/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 38,765,181.68
6/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 37,671,116.33
6/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 36,680,718.16
6/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 35,783,239.93
6/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 34,969,146.33
6/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 34,229,971.52
6/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 33,558,192.52
6/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 32,947,117.07
6/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 32,390,784.87
6/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 31,883,880.70
6/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 31,421,658.23
6/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 30,999,873.27
6/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 30,614,725.31
7/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 30,262,806.31
7/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 29,941,055.90
7/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 29,646,722.09
7/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 29,377,326.89
7/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 29,130,636.01
7/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,904,632.39
7/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,697,492.77
7/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,507,567.18
7/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,333,360.71
7/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,173,517.54
7/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,026,806.67
7/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,892,109.38
7/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,768,408.02
7/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,654,776.09
7/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,550,369.37
7/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,454,418.01
7/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,366,219.47
7/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,285,132.22
7/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,210,570.01
7/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,141,996.86
7/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,078,922.41
7/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,020,897.82
7/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,967,512.09
7/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,918,388.63
7/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,873,182.31
7/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,831,576.64
7/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,793,281.33
7/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,758,030.02
7/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,725,578.22
7/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,695,701.45
7/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,668,193.56
8/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,642,865.18
8/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,619,542.30
8/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,598,065.02
8/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,578,286.32
8/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,560,071.07
8/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,543,295.00
8/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,527,843.82
8/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,513,612.39
8/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,500,504.01
8/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,488,429.70
8/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,477,307.59
8/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,467,062.31
8/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,457,624.54
8/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,448,930.43
8/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,440,921.23
8/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,433,542.86
8/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,426,745.50
8/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,420,483.32
8/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,414,714.10
8/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,409,398.96
8/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,404,502.10
8/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,399,990.55
8/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,395,833.96
8/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,392,004.35
8/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,388,475.99
8/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,385,225.14
8/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,382,229.95
8/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,379,470.30
8/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,376,927.66
8/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,374,584.94
8/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,372,426.41
9/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,370,437.59
9/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,368,605.11
9/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,366,916.69
9/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,365,360.99
9/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,363,927.57
9/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,362,606.82
9/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,361,389.88
9/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,360,268.59
9/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,359,235.43
9/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,358,283.46
9/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,357,406.30
9/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,356,598.08
9/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,355,853.38
9/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,355,167.19
9/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,354,534.93
9/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,353,952.35
9/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,353,415.56
9/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,352,920.94
9/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,352,465.19
9/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,352,045.25
9/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,351,658.30
9/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,351,301.77
9/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,973.24
9/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,670.53
9/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,391.61
9/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,134.60
9/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,897.78
9/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,679.57
9/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,478.51
9/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,293.25
10/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,122.54
10/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,965.24
10/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,820.30
10/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,686.75
10/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,563.69
10/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,450.30
10/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,345.82
10/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,249.55
10/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,160.85
10/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,079.11
10/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,003.79
10/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,934.39
10/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,870.45
10/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,811.53
10/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,757.23
10/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,707.21
10/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,661.11
10/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,618.64
10/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,579.50
10/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,543.44
10/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,510.21
10/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,479.59
10/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,451.37
10/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,425.38
10/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,401.42
10/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,379.35
10/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,359.01
10/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,340.27
10/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,323.01
10/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,307.10
10/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,292.43
11/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,278.92
11/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,266.48
11/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,255.01
11/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,244.44
11/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,234.70
11/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,225.73
11/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,217.46
11/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,209.84
11/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,202.82
11/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,196.35
11/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,190.39
11/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,184.90
11/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,179.84
11/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,175.18
11/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,170.88
11/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,166.92
11/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,163.27
11/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,159.91
11/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,156.81
11/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,153.96
11/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,151.33
11/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,148.91
11/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,146.67
11/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,144.62
11/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,142.72
11/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,140.97
11/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,139.36
11/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,137.88
11/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,136.52
11/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,135.26
12/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,134.10
12/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,133.03
12/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,132.04
12/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,131.13
12/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,130.30
12/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,129.53
12/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,128.82
12/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,128.16
12/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,127.56
12/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,127.00
12/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,126.49
12/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,126.02
12/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,125.59
12/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,125.19
12/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,124.82
12/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,124.48
12/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,124.16
12/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,123.87
12/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,123.61
12/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,123.36
12/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,123.14
12/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,122.93
12/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,122.74
12/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,122.56
12/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,122.40
12/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,122.25
12/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,122.11
12/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.98
12/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.86
12/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.76
12/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.66
1/1/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.56
1/2/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.48
1/3/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.40
1/4/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.33
1/5/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.26
1/6/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.20
1/7/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.15
1/8/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.10
1/9/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.05
1/10/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.00
1/11/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.96
1/12/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.93
1/13/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.89
1/14/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.86
1/15/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.83
1/16/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.80
1/17/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.78
1/18/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.76
1/19/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.73
Impact on healthcare system and mortality Instructions
000 Change the model in
two ways:
000
1. Change the values in the
000
GOLD cells at right to modify
the entire model.
000
2. Change the daily Contact
000
Rate values in BLUE below to
simulate the effect of
000
beginning and ending
community actions (e.g. school
000 closure).
-
1/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/2020 10/21/2020

# Needing Hospitalization # Needing ICU care


Deaths

# Needing # Needing ICU


Infected Recovered Hospitalization care Deaths

1 - 0 0 0
1.17 0.10 0 0 0
1.36 0.22 0 0 0
1.59 0.35 0 0 0
1.86 0.51 0 0 0
2.17 0.70 0 0 0
2.54 0.92 0 0 0
2.97 1.17 0 0 0
3.46 1.47 0 0 0
4.05 1.81 1 0 0
4.73 2.22 1 0 0
5.52 2.69 1 0 0
6.45 3.24 1 0 0
7.53 3.89 1 0 0
8.79 4.64 1 0 0
10.27 5.52 1 0 0
12.00 6.55 2 1 0
14.01 7.75 2 1 0
16.37 9.15 2 1 0
19.12 10.78 3 1 0
22.33 12.70 3 1 0
26.08 14.93 4 1 0
30.46 17.54 4 1 0
35.58 20.58 5 2 0
41.56 24.14 6 2 0
48.54 28.30 7 2 0
56.69 33.15 8 3 1
66.22 38.82 9 3 1
77.34 45.44 11 4 1
90.33 53.17 12 4 1
105.51 62.21 15 5 1
123.23 72.76 17 6 1
143.94 85.08 20 7 1
168.12 99.47 23 8 2
196.36 116.29 27 9 2
229.35 135.92 32 11 2
267.88 158.86 37 13 2
312.88 185.65 43 15 3
365.45 216.93 50 17 3
426.84 253.48 59 20 4
498.55 296.16 69 23 4
582.31 346.02 80 27 5
680.14 404.25 94 32 6
794.40 472.26 110 37 7
927.86 551.70 128 44 8
1,083.74 644.49 150 51 10
1,265.81 752.86 175 59 11
1,478.46 879.44 204 69 13
1,726.84 1,027.29 238 81 16
2,016.94 1,199.97 278 95 18
2,355.78 1,401.67 325 111 21
2,751.55 1,637.25 380 129 25
3,213.80 1,912.40 444 151 29
3,753.70 2,233.78 518 176 34
4,384.31 2,609.15 605 206 39
5,120.85 3,047.58 707 241 46
5,981.11 3,559.67 825 281 54
6,985.89 4,157.78 964 328 63
8,159.46 4,856.37 1,126 383 73
9,530.16 5,672.31 1,315 448 86
11,131.11 6,625.33 1,536 523 100
13,000.98 7,738.44 1,794 611 117
15,184.93 9,038.54 2,096 714 137
17,735.69 10,557.03 2,448 834 160
20,714.88 12,330.60 2,859 974 186
24,194.43 14,402.09 3,339 1,137 218
28,258.33 16,821.53 3,900 1,328 254
33,004.69 19,647.37 4,555 1,551 297
38,548.07 22,947.83 5,320 1,812 347
45,022.21 26,802.64 6,213 2,116 405
52,583.31 31,304.86 7,256 2,471 473
61,413.72 36,563.19 8,475 2,886 553
71,726.33 42,704.57 9,898 3,371 646
83,769.68 49,877.20 11,560 3,937 754
97,833.88 58,254.17 13,501 4,598 881
114,257.55 68,037.56 15,768 5,370 1,028
133,435.87 79,463.31 18,414 6,271 1,201
155,829.99 92,806.90 21,505 7,324 1,402
181,977.90 108,389.90 25,113 8,553 1,638
212,507.21 126,587.69 29,326 9,988 1,913
248,149.79 147,838.41 34,245 11,663 2,233
289,759.02 172,653.39 39,987 13,619 2,608
338,329.53 201,629.29 46,689 15,901 3,045
395,020.27 235,462.24 54,513 18,566 3,555
461,181.07 274,964.27 63,643 21,676 4,151
538,383.30 321,082.38 74,297 25,304 4,845
628,455.25 374,920.71 86,727 29,537 5,656
733,522.74 437,766.23 101,226 34,476 6,602
856,055.61 511,118.50 118,136 40,235 7,705
998,920.82 596,724.07 137,851 46,949 8,990
1,165,442.82 696,616.15 160,831 54,776 10,489
1,359,471.75 813,160.43 187,607 63,895 12,235
1,585,460.15 949,107.60 218,794 74,517 14,269
1,848,548.33 1,107,653.62 255,100 86,882 16,637
2,154,658.78 1,292,508.45 297,343 101,269 19,392
2,510,599.00 1,507,974.33 346,463 117,998 22,595
2,924,171.93 1,759,034.23 403,536 137,436 26,318
3,404,291.96 2,051,451.42 469,792 160,002 30,639
3,961,103.41 2,391,880.62 546,632 186,172 35,650
4,606,096.50 2,787,990.96 635,641 216,487 41,455
5,352,213.68 3,248,600.61 738,605 251,554 48,170
6,213,936.13 3,783,821.98 857,523 292,055 55,925
7,207,336.63 4,405,215.59 994,612 338,745 64,866
8,350,080.51 5,125,949.25 1,152,311 392,454 75,151
9,661,351.06 5,960,957.31 1,333,266 454,084 86,952
11,161,670.17 6,927,092.41 1,540,310 524,598 100,455
12,872,578.84 8,043,259.43 1,776,416 605,011 115,853
14,816,137.22 9,330,517.31 2,044,627 696,358 133,345
17,014,200.44 10,812,131.04 2,347,960 799,667 153,128
19,487,427.23 12,513,551.08 2,689,265 915,909 175,387
22,253,985.43 14,462,293.80 3,071,050 1,045,937 200,286
25,327,934.77 16,687,692.35 3,495,255 1,190,413 227,951
28,717,296.65 19,220,485.82 3,962,987 1,349,713 258,456
32,421,864.65 22,092,215.49 4,474,217 1,523,828 291,797
36,430,869.64 25,334,401.95 5,027,460 1,712,251 327,878
40,720,685.83 28,977,488.92 5,619,455 1,913,872 366,486
45,252,840.90 33,049,557.50 6,244,892 2,126,884 407,276
49,972,658.71 37,574,841.59 6,896,227 2,348,715 449,754
54,808,896.18 42,572,107.46 7,563,628 2,576,018 493,280
59,674,711.65 48,052,997.08 8,235,110 2,804,711 537,072
64,470,201.80 54,020,468.24 8,896,888 3,030,099 580,232
69,086,560.89 60,467,488.42 9,533,945 3,247,068 621,779
73,411,667.82 67,376,144.51 10,130,810 3,450,348 660,705
77,336,636.79 74,717,311.30 10,672,456 3,634,822 696,030
80,762,640.31 82,450,974.97 11,145,244 3,795,844 726,864
83,607,195.56 90,527,239.00 11,537,793 3,929,538 752,465
85,809,140.41 98,887,958.56 11,841,661 4,033,030 772,282
87,331,717.59 107,468,872.60 12,051,777 4,104,591 785,985
88,163,490.44 116,202,044.36 12,166,562 4,143,684 793,471
88,317,154.46 125,018,393.40 12,187,767 4,150,906 794,854
87,826,604.63 133,850,108.85 12,120,071 4,127,850 790,439
86,742,808.32 142,632,769.31 11,970,508 4,076,912 780,685
85,129,095.19 151,307,050.15 11,747,815 4,001,067 766,162
83,056,423.79 159,819,959.66 11,461,786 3,903,652 747,508
80,599,057.92 168,125,602.04 11,122,670 3,788,156 725,392
77,830,928.38 176,185,507.84 10,740,668 3,658,054 700,478
74,822,805.98 183,968,600.67 10,325,547 3,516,672 673,405
71,640,291.30 191,450,881.27 9,886,360 3,367,094 644,763
68,342,545.51 198,614,910.40 9,431,271 3,212,100 615,083
64,981,641.74 205,449,164.95 8,967,467 3,054,137 584,835
61,602,401.71 211,947,329.13 8,501,131 2,895,313 554,422
58,242,586.56 218,107,569.30 8,037,477 2,737,402 524,183
54,933,327.18 223,931,827.95 7,580,799 2,581,866 494,400
51,699,700.33 229,425,160.67 7,134,559 2,429,886 465,297
48,561,378.25 234,595,130.71 6,701,470 2,282,385 437,052
45,533,299.08 239,451,268.53 6,283,595 2,140,065 409,800
42,626,321.88 244,004,598.44 5,882,432 2,003,437 383,637
39,847,842.76 248,267,230.63 5,499,002 1,872,849 358,631
37,202,358.85 252,252,014.90 5,133,926 1,748,511 334,821
34,691,973.54 255,972,250.79 4,787,492 1,630,523 312,228
32,316,841.53 259,441,448.14 4,459,724 1,518,892 290,852
30,075,555.55 262,673,132.29 4,150,427 1,413,551 270,680
27,965,478.22 265,680,687.85 3,859,236 1,314,377 251,689
25,983,024.00 268,477,235.67 3,585,657 1,221,202 233,847
24,123,896.41 271,075,538.07 3,329,098 1,133,823 217,115
22,383,285.77 273,487,927.71 3,088,893 1,052,014 201,450
20,756,032.64 275,726,256.29 2,864,333 975,534 186,804
19,236,761.57 277,801,859.55 2,654,673 904,128 173,131
17,819,989.59 279,725,535.71 2,459,159 837,540 160,380
16,500,213.10 281,507,534.67 2,277,029 775,510 148,502
15,271,976.75 283,157,555.98 2,107,533 717,783 137,448
14,129,927.03 284,684,753.65 1,949,930 664,107 127,169
13,068,853.33 286,097,746.36 1,803,502 614,236 117,620
12,083,718.41 287,404,631.69 1,667,553 567,935 108,753
11,169,680.37 288,613,003.53 1,541,416 524,975 100,527
10,322,107.54 289,729,971.57 1,424,451 485,139 92,899
9,536,587.66 290,762,182.32 1,316,049 448,220 85,829
8,808,932.52 291,715,841.09 1,215,633 414,020 79,280
8,135,178.89 292,596,734.34 1,122,655 382,353 73,217
7,511,586.59 293,410,252.23 1,036,599 353,045 67,604
6,934,634.40 294,161,410.89 956,980 325,928 62,412
6,401,014.13 294,854,874.33 883,340 300,848 57,609
5,907,623.59 295,494,975.74 815,252 277,658 53,169
5,451,558.52 296,085,738.10 752,315 256,223 49,064
5,030,104.03 296,630,893.95 694,154 236,415 45,271
4,640,725.55 297,133,904.36 640,420 218,114 41,767
4,281,059.72 297,597,976.91 590,786 201,210 38,530
3,948,905.11 298,026,082.88 544,949 185,599 35,540
3,642,213.14 298,420,973.39 502,625 171,184 32,780
3,359,079.08 298,785,194.71 463,553 157,877 30,232
3,097,733.37 299,121,102.62 427,487 145,593 27,880
2,856,533.18 299,430,875.95 394,202 134,257 25,709
2,633,954.32 299,716,529.27 363,486 123,796 23,706
2,428,583.47 299,979,924.70 335,145 114,143 21,857
2,239,110.86 300,222,783.05 308,997 105,238 20,152
2,064,323.23 300,446,694.14 284,877 97,023 18,579
1,903,097.23 300,653,126.46 262,627 89,446 17,128
1,754,393.18 300,843,436.18 242,106 82,456 15,790
1,617,249.17 301,018,875.50 223,180 76,011 14,555
1,490,775.56 301,180,600.42 205,727 70,066 13,417
1,374,149.81 301,329,677.97 189,633 64,585 12,367
1,266,611.60 301,467,092.95 174,792 59,531 11,400
1,167,458.32 301,593,754.11 161,109 54,871 10,507
1,076,040.87 301,710,499.95 148,494 50,574 9,684
991,759.66 301,818,104.03 136,863 46,613 8,926
914,060.98 301,917,280.00 126,140 42,961 8,227
842,433.58 302,008,686.10 116,256 39,594 7,582
776,405.47 302,092,929.46 107,144 36,491 6,988
715,540.99 302,170,570.00 98,745 33,630 6,440
659,438.08 302,242,124.10 91,002 30,994 5,935
607,725.70 302,308,067.91 83,866 28,563 5,470
560,061.51 302,368,840.48 77,288 26,323 5,041
516,129.66 302,424,846.63 71,226 24,258 4,645
475,638.81 302,476,459.60 65,638 22,355 4,281
438,320.21 302,524,023.48 60,488 20,601 3,945
403,925.96 302,567,855.50 55,742 18,985 3,635
372,227.47 302,608,248.10 51,367 17,495 3,350
343,013.92 302,645,470.84 47,336 16,122 3,087
316,090.91 302,679,772.24 43,621 14,856 2,845
291,279.17 302,711,381.33 40,197 13,690 2,622
268,413.43 302,740,509.24 37,041 12,615 2,416
247,341.31 302,767,350.59 34,133 11,625 2,226
227,922.33 302,792,084.72 31,453 10,712 2,051
210,026.95 302,814,876.95 28,984 9,871 1,890
193,535.81 302,835,879.65 26,708 9,096 1,742
178,338.82 302,855,233.23 24,611 8,382 1,605
164,334.54 302,873,067.11 22,678 7,724 1,479
151,429.45 302,889,500.56 20,897 7,117 1,363
139,537.36 302,904,643.51 19,256 6,558 1,256
128,578.81 302,918,597.24 17,744 6,043 1,157
118,480.57 302,931,455.12 16,350 5,569 1,066
109,175.16 302,943,303.18 15,066 5,131 983
100,600.36 302,954,220.70 13,883 4,728 905
92,698.86 302,964,280.73 12,792 4,357 834
85,417.80 302,973,550.62 11,788 4,015 769
78,708.49 302,982,092.40 10,862 3,699 708
72,526.07 302,989,963.25 10,009 3,409 653
66,829.16 302,997,215.85 9,222 3,141 601
61,579.66 303,003,898.77 8,498 2,894 554
56,742.44 303,010,056.74 7,830 2,667 511
52,285.14 303,015,730.98 7,215 2,457 471
48,177.91 303,020,959.49 6,649 2,264 434
44,393.29 303,025,777.28 6,126 2,086 400
40,905.93 303,030,216.61 5,645 1,923 368
37,692.49 303,034,307.21 5,202 1,772 339
34,731.46 303,038,076.46 4,793 1,632 313
32,003.02 303,041,549.60 4,416 1,504 288
29,488.90 303,044,749.90 4,069 1,386 265
27,172.27 303,047,698.79 3,750 1,277 245
25,037.62 303,050,416.02 3,455 1,177 225
23,070.66 303,052,919.78 3,184 1,084 208
21,258.21 303,055,226.85 2,934 999 191
19,588.14 303,057,352.67 2,703 921 176
18,049.27 303,059,311.49 2,491 848 162
16,631.28 303,061,116.41 2,295 782 150
15,324.69 303,062,779.54 2,115 720 138
14,120.75 303,064,312.01 1,949 664 127
13,011.38 303,065,724.08 1,796 612 117
11,989.17 303,067,025.22 1,655 563 108
11,047.26 303,068,224.14 1,525 519 99
10,179.35 303,069,328.87 1,405 478 92
9,379.62 303,070,346.80 1,294 441 84
8,642.73 303,071,284.76 1,193 406 78
7,963.72 303,072,149.04 1,099 374 72
7,338.06 303,072,945.41 1,013 345 66
6,761.55 303,073,679.21 933 318 61
6,230.33 303,074,355.37 860 293 56
5,740.85 303,074,978.40 792 270 52
5,289.82 303,075,552.49 730 249 48
4,874.23 303,076,081.47 673 229 44
4,491.28 303,076,568.89 620 211 40
4,138.43 303,077,018.02 571 195 37
3,813.29 303,077,431.86 526 179 34
3,513.70 303,077,813.19 485 165 32
3,237.65 303,078,164.56 447 152 29
2,983.28 303,078,488.33 412 140 27
2,748.90 303,078,786.65 379 129 25
2,532.93 303,079,061.54 350 119 23
2,333.93 303,079,314.84 322 110 21
2,150.56 303,079,548.23 297 101 19
1,981.60 303,079,763.29 273 93 18
1,825.92 303,079,961.45 252 86 16
1,682.46 303,080,144.04 232 79 15
1,550.28 303,080,312.28 214 73 14
1,428.48 303,080,467.31 197 67 13
1,316.25 303,080,610.16 182 62 12
1,212.84 303,080,741.79 167 57 11
1,117.55 303,080,863.07 154 53 10
1,029.75 303,080,974.82 142 48 9
948.85 303,081,077.80 131 45 9
874.30 303,081,172.68 121 41 8
805.61 303,081,260.11 111 38 7
742.32 303,081,340.68 102 35 7
684.00 303,081,414.91 94 32 6
630.26 303,081,483.31 87 30 6
580.74 303,081,546.33 80 27 5
535.12 303,081,604.41 74 25 5
493.07 303,081,657.92 68 23 4
454.33 303,081,707.23 63 21 4
418.64 303,081,752.66 58 20 4
385.75 303,081,794.52 53 18 3
355.44 303,081,833.10 49 17 3
327.52 303,081,868.64 45 15 3
301.78 303,081,901.39 42 14 3
278.08 303,081,931.57 38 13 3
256.23 303,081,959.38 35 12 2
236.10 303,081,985.00 33 11 2
217.55 303,082,008.61 30 10 2
200.46 303,082,030.37 28 9 2
184.71 303,082,050.41 25 9 2
170.20 303,082,068.88 23 8 2
156.82 303,082,085.90 22 7 1
144.50 303,082,101.59 20 7 1
133.15 303,082,116.04 18 6 1
122.69 303,082,129.35 17 6 1
113.05 303,082,141.62 16 5 1
104.17 303,082,152.93 14 5 1
95.98 303,082,163.34 13 5 1
88.44 303,082,172.94 12 4 1
81.49 303,082,181.78 11 4 1
75.09 303,082,189.93 10 4 1
69.19 303,082,197.44 10 3 1
63.76 303,082,204.36 9 3 1
58.75 303,082,210.74 8 3 1
54.13 303,082,216.61 7 3 0
49.88 303,082,222.03 7 2 0
45.96 303,082,227.01 6 2 0
42.35 303,082,231.61 6 2 0
39.02 303,082,235.84 5 2 0
35.96 303,082,239.75 5 2 0
33.13 303,082,243.34 5 2 0
30.53 303,082,246.66 4 1 0
28.13 303,082,249.71 4 1 0
25.92 303,082,252.52 4 1 0
23.88 303,082,255.11 3 1 0
22.01 303,082,257.50 3 1 0
20.28 303,082,259.70 3 1 0
18.68 303,082,261.73 3 1 0
17.22 303,082,263.60 2 1 0
15.86 303,082,265.32 2 1 0
14.62 303,082,266.91 2 1 0
13.47 303,082,268.37 2 1 0
12.41 303,082,269.72 2 1 0
11.44 303,082,270.96 2 1 0
10.54 303,082,272.10 1 0 0
9.71 303,082,273.15 1 0 0
8.95 303,082,274.12 1 0 0
8.24 303,082,275.02 1 0 0
7.60 303,082,275.84 1 0 0
7.00 303,082,276.60 1 0 0
6.45 303,082,277.30 1 0 0
5.94 303,082,277.95 1 0 0
5.48 303,082,278.54 1 0 0
5.05 303,082,279.09 1 0 0
4.65 303,082,279.59 1 0 0
4.28 303,082,280.06 1 0 0
3.95 303,082,280.49 1 0 0
3.64 303,082,280.88 1 0 0
3.35 303,082,281.25 0 0 0
3.09 303,082,281.58 0 0 0
2.85 303,082,281.89 0 0 0
2.62 303,082,282.17 0 0 0
2.42 303,082,282.44 0 0 0
2.23 303,082,282.68 0 0 0
2.05 303,082,282.90 0 0 0
1.89 303,082,283.11 0 0 0
1.74 303,082,283.30 0 0 0
1.60 303,082,283.47 0 0 0
1.48 303,082,283.63 0 0 0
1.36 303,082,283.78 0 0 0
1.26 303,082,283.91 0 0 0
1.16 303,082,284.04 0 0 0
1.07 303,082,284.16 0 0 0
0.98 303,082,284.26 0 0 0
0.91 303,082,284.36 0 0 0
Model parameters Value*

Contact Rate 13.4

Transmissibility 2.0%

Duration of Infectiousness 10

% Needing Hospitalization 13.80%

% Needing ICU Care 4.70%

Mortality rate 0.90%


Definitions

The number of susceptible people an infectious person


contacts.

The probability that a contact between a susceptible person


and an infected person results in infection.

The period of time (in days) an infected person can pass the
infection.

The proportion of infected people who require hospital care.

The proportion of infected people who require ICU care.

The proportion of infected people who die.

*see Details tab for explanations, suggested ranges, and


references
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Model Impact on healthcare system
350,000,000 14,000,000

300,000,000 12,000,000

250,000,000 10,000,000

8,000,000
200,000,000

6,000,000
150,000,000

4,000,000
100,000,000
2,000,000
50,000,000
-
0 1/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/2
1/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/2020 10/21/2020
# Needing Hospitalization
Susceptible Infected Recovered Deaths

Reproduction
Date Number Contact rate Transmissibility Susceptible

1/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,405


1/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.73
1/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.42
1/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.05
1/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,403.63
1/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,403.13
1/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,402.54
1/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,401.86
1/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,401.07
1/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,400.14
1/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,399.06
2/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,397.79
2/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,396.31
2/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,394.58
2/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,392.57
2/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,390.21
2/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,387.46
2/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,384.24
2/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,380.49
2/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,376.10
2/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,370.98
2/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,364.99
2/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,358.00
2/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,349.84
2/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,340.30
2/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,329.17
2/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,316.16
2/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,300.97
2/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,283.22
2/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,262.49
2/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,238.28
2/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,210.01
2/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,176.98
2/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,138.41
2/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,093.35
2/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,040.73
2/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,979.26
2/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,907.47
2/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,823.62
2/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,725.68
3/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,611.28
3/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,477.67
3/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,321.61
3/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,139.33
3/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,926.44
3/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,677.77
3/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,387.33
3/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,048.10
3/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,426,651.87
3/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,426,189.08
3/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,425,648.55
3/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,425,017.20
3/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,424,279.80
3/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,423,418.52
3/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,422,412.54
3/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,421,237.57
3/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,419,865.22
3/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,418,262.33
3/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,416,390.17
3/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,414,203.52
3/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,411,649.56
3/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,408,666.58
3/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,405,182.53
3/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,401,113.27
3/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,396,360.52
3/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,390,809.48
3/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,384,326.14
3/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,376,753.94
3/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,367,910.10
3/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,357,581.14
3/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,345,517.82
4/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,331,429.08
4/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,314,975.10
4/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,295,759.12
4/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,273,317.95
4/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,247,110.90
4/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,216,506.82
4/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,180,769.12
4/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,139,038.20
4/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,090,311.11
4/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,033,417.80
4/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,966,993.60
4/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,889,447.18
4/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,798,923.49
4/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,693,260.66
4/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,569,940.33
4/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,426,030.04
4/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,258,117.02
4/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,062,231.89
4/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 327,833,761.12
4/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 327,567,347.04
4/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 327,256,773.82
4/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 326,894,838.25
4/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 326,473,204.05
4/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 325,982,238.77
4/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 325,410,832.67
4/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 324,746,199.84
4/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 323,973,662.61
4/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 323,076,421.97
4/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 322,035,318.54
4/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 320,828,591.71
5/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 319,431,647.89
5/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 317,816,853.78
5/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 315,953,376.23
5/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 313,807,097.63
5/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 311,340,643.42
5/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 308,513,567.73
5/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 305,282,751.47
5/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 301,603,074.53
5/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 297,428,427.69
5/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 292,713,126.77
5/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 287,413,778.88
5/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 281,491,623.52
5/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 274,915,325.86
5/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 267,664,134.41
5/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 259,731,231.25
5/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 251,127,007.60
5/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 241,881,905.70
5/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 232,048,402.36
5/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 221,701,697.27
5/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 210,938,735.96
5/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 199,875,356.69
5/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 188,641,593.66
5/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 177,375,457.92
5/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 166,215,790.72
5/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 155,294,971.43
5/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 144,732,307.03
5/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 134,628,815.81
5/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 125,063,871.20
5/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 116,093,858.13
5/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 107,752,692.52
5/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 100,053,828.36
6/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 92,993,260.67
6/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 86,553,022.54
6/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 80,704,746.03
6/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 75,412,969.78
6/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 70,637,999.35
6/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 66,338,233.42
6/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 62,471,950.09
6/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 58,998,599.31
6/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 55,879,675.16
6/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 53,079,250.14
6/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 50,564,250.86
6/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 48,304,544.99
6/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 46,272,897.05
6/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 44,444,838.39
6/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 42,798,485.69
6/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 41,314,332.61
6/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 39,975,032.24
6/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 38,765,181.68
6/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 37,671,116.33
6/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 36,680,718.16
6/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 35,783,239.93
6/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 34,969,146.33
6/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 34,229,971.52
6/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 33,558,192.52
6/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 32,947,117.07
6/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 32,390,784.87
6/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 31,883,880.70
6/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 31,421,658.23
6/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 30,999,873.27
6/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 30,614,725.31
7/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 30,262,806.31
7/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 29,941,055.90
7/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 29,646,722.09
7/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 29,377,326.89
7/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 29,130,636.01
7/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,904,632.39
7/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,697,492.77
7/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,507,567.18
7/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,333,360.71
7/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,173,517.54
7/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,026,806.67
7/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,892,109.38
7/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,768,408.02
7/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,654,776.09
7/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,550,369.37
7/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,454,418.01
7/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,366,219.47
7/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,285,132.22
7/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,210,570.01
7/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,141,996.86
7/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,078,922.41
7/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,020,897.82
7/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,967,512.09
7/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,918,388.63
7/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,873,182.31
7/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,831,576.64
7/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,793,281.33
7/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,758,030.02
7/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,725,578.22
7/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,695,701.45
7/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,668,193.56
8/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,642,865.18
8/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,619,542.30
8/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,598,065.02
8/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,578,286.32
8/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,560,071.07
8/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,543,295.00
8/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,527,843.82
8/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,513,612.39
8/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,500,504.01
8/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,488,429.70
8/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,477,307.59
8/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,467,062.31
8/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,457,624.54
8/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,448,930.43
8/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,440,921.23
8/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,433,542.86
8/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,426,745.50
8/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,420,483.32
8/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,414,714.10
8/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,409,398.96
8/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,404,502.10
8/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,399,990.55
8/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,395,833.96
8/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,392,004.35
8/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,388,475.99
8/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,385,225.14
8/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,382,229.95
8/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,379,470.30
8/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,376,927.66
8/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,374,584.94
8/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,372,426.41
9/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,370,437.59
9/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,368,605.11
9/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,366,916.69
9/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,365,360.99
9/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,363,927.57
9/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,362,606.82
9/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,361,389.88
9/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,360,268.59
9/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,359,235.43
9/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,358,283.46
9/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,357,406.30
9/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,356,598.08
9/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,355,853.38
9/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,355,167.19
9/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,354,534.93
9/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,353,952.35
9/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,353,415.56
9/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,352,920.94
9/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,352,465.19
9/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,352,045.25
9/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,351,658.30
9/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,351,301.77
9/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,973.24
9/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,670.53
9/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,391.61
9/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,134.60
9/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,897.78
9/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,679.57
9/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,478.51
9/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,293.25
10/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,122.54
10/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,965.24
10/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,820.30
10/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,686.75
10/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,563.69
10/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,450.30
10/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,345.82
10/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,249.55
10/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,160.85
10/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,079.11
10/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,348,003.79
10/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,934.39
10/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,870.45
10/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,811.53
10/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,757.23
10/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,707.21
10/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,661.11
10/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,618.64
10/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,579.50
10/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,543.44
10/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,510.21
10/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,479.59
10/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,451.37
10/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,425.38
10/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,401.42
10/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,379.35
10/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,359.01
10/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,340.27
10/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,323.01
10/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,307.10
10/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,292.43
11/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,278.92
11/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,266.48
11/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,255.01
11/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,244.44
11/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,234.70
11/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,225.73
11/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,217.46
11/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,209.84
11/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,202.82
11/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,196.35
11/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,190.39
11/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,184.90
11/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,179.84
11/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,175.18
11/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,170.88
11/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,166.92
11/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,163.27
11/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,159.91
11/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,156.81
11/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,153.96
11/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,151.33
11/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,148.91
11/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,146.67
11/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,144.62
11/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,142.72
11/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,140.97
11/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,139.36
11/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,137.88
11/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,136.52
11/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,135.26
12/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,134.10
12/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,133.03
12/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,132.04
12/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,131.13
12/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,130.30
12/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,129.53
12/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,128.82
12/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,128.16
12/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,127.56
12/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,127.00
12/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,126.49
12/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,126.02
12/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,125.59
12/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,125.19
12/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,124.82
12/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,124.48
12/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,124.16
12/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,123.87
12/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,123.61
12/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,123.36
12/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,123.14
12/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,122.93
12/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,122.74
12/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,122.56
12/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,122.40
12/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,122.25
12/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,122.11
12/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.98
12/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.86
12/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.76
12/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.66
1/1/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.56
1/2/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.48
1/3/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.40
1/4/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.33
1/5/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.26
1/6/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.20
1/7/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.15
1/8/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.10
1/9/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.05
1/10/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,121.00
1/11/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.96
1/12/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.93
1/13/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.89
1/14/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.86
1/15/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.83
1/16/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.80
1/17/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.78
1/18/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.76
1/19/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 26,347,120.73
Impact on healthcare system and mortality Instructions
Change the model in
two ways:
1. Change the values in the
GOLD cells at right to modify
the entire model.
2. Change the daily Contact
Rate values in BLUE below to
simulate the effect of
beginning and ending
community actions (e.g. school
closure).

1/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/2020 10/21/2020

# Needing Hospitalization # Needing ICU care


Deaths

# Needing # Needing ICU


Infected Recovered Hospitalization care Deaths

1 - 0 0 0
1.17 0.10 0 0 0
1.36 0.22 0 0 0
1.59 0.35 0 0 0
1.86 0.51 0 0 0
2.17 0.70 0 0 0
2.54 0.92 0 0 0
2.97 1.17 0 0 0
3.46 1.47 0 0 0
4.05 1.81 1 0 0
4.73 2.22 1 0 0
5.52 2.69 1 0 0
6.45 3.24 1 0 0
7.53 3.89 1 0 0
8.79 4.64 1 0 0
10.27 5.52 1 0 0
12.00 6.55 2 1 0
14.01 7.75 2 1 0
16.37 9.15 2 1 0
19.12 10.78 3 1 0
22.33 12.70 3 1 0
26.08 14.93 4 1 0
30.46 17.54 4 1 0
35.58 20.58 5 2 0
41.56 24.14 6 2 0
48.54 28.30 7 2 0
56.69 33.15 8 3 1
66.22 38.82 9 3 1
77.34 45.44 11 4 1
90.33 53.17 12 4 1
105.51 62.21 15 5 1
123.23 72.76 17 6 1
143.94 85.08 20 7 1
168.12 99.47 23 8 2
196.36 116.29 27 9 2
229.35 135.92 32 11 2
267.88 158.86 37 13 2
312.88 185.65 43 15 3
365.45 216.93 50 17 3
426.84 253.48 59 20 4
498.55 296.16 69 23 4
582.31 346.02 80 27 5
680.14 404.25 94 32 6
794.40 472.26 110 37 7
927.86 551.70 128 44 8
1,083.74 644.49 150 51 10
1,265.81 752.86 175 59 11
1,478.46 879.44 204 69 13
1,726.84 1,027.29 238 81 16
2,016.94 1,199.97 278 95 18
2,355.78 1,401.67 325 111 21
2,751.55 1,637.25 380 129 25
3,213.80 1,912.40 444 151 29
3,753.70 2,233.78 518 176 34
4,384.31 2,609.15 605 206 39
5,120.85 3,047.58 707 241 46
5,981.11 3,559.67 825 281 54
6,985.89 4,157.78 964 328 63
8,159.46 4,856.37 1,126 383 73
9,530.16 5,672.31 1,315 448 86
11,131.11 6,625.33 1,536 523 100
13,000.98 7,738.44 1,794 611 117
15,184.93 9,038.54 2,096 714 137
17,735.69 10,557.03 2,448 834 160
20,714.88 12,330.60 2,859 974 186
24,194.43 14,402.09 3,339 1,137 218
28,258.33 16,821.53 3,900 1,328 254
33,004.69 19,647.37 4,555 1,551 297
38,548.07 22,947.83 5,320 1,812 347
45,022.21 26,802.64 6,213 2,116 405
52,583.31 31,304.86 7,256 2,471 473
61,413.72 36,563.19 8,475 2,886 553
71,726.33 42,704.57 9,898 3,371 646
83,769.68 49,877.20 11,560 3,937 754
97,833.88 58,254.17 13,501 4,598 881
114,257.55 68,037.56 15,768 5,370 1,028
133,435.87 79,463.31 18,414 6,271 1,201
155,829.99 92,806.90 21,505 7,324 1,402
181,977.90 108,389.90 25,113 8,553 1,638
212,507.21 126,587.69 29,326 9,988 1,913
248,149.79 147,838.41 34,245 11,663 2,233
289,759.02 172,653.39 39,987 13,619 2,608
338,329.53 201,629.29 46,689 15,901 3,045
395,020.27 235,462.24 54,513 18,566 3,555
461,181.07 274,964.27 63,643 21,676 4,151
538,383.30 321,082.38 74,297 25,304 4,845
628,455.25 374,920.71 86,727 29,537 5,656
733,522.74 437,766.23 101,226 34,476 6,602
856,055.61 511,118.50 118,136 40,235 7,705
998,920.82 596,724.07 137,851 46,949 8,990
1,165,442.82 696,616.15 160,831 54,776 10,489
1,359,471.75 813,160.43 187,607 63,895 12,235
1,585,460.15 949,107.60 218,794 74,517 14,269
1,848,548.33 1,107,653.62 255,100 86,882 16,637
2,154,658.78 1,292,508.45 297,343 101,269 19,392
2,510,599.00 1,507,974.33 346,463 117,998 22,595
2,924,171.93 1,759,034.23 403,536 137,436 26,318
3,404,291.96 2,051,451.42 469,792 160,002 30,639
3,961,103.41 2,391,880.62 546,632 186,172 35,650
4,606,096.50 2,787,990.96 635,641 216,487 41,455
5,352,213.68 3,248,600.61 738,605 251,554 48,170
6,213,936.13 3,783,821.98 857,523 292,055 55,925
7,207,336.63 4,405,215.59 994,612 338,745 64,866
8,350,080.51 5,125,949.25 1,152,311 392,454 75,151
9,661,351.06 5,960,957.31 1,333,266 454,084 86,952
11,161,670.17 6,927,092.41 1,540,310 524,598 100,455
12,872,578.84 8,043,259.43 1,776,416 605,011 115,853
14,816,137.22 9,330,517.31 2,044,627 696,358 133,345
17,014,200.44 10,812,131.04 2,347,960 799,667 153,128
19,487,427.23 12,513,551.08 2,689,265 915,909 175,387
22,253,985.43 14,462,293.80 3,071,050 1,045,937 200,286
25,327,934.77 16,687,692.35 3,495,255 1,190,413 227,951
28,717,296.65 19,220,485.82 3,962,987 1,349,713 258,456
32,421,864.65 22,092,215.49 4,474,217 1,523,828 291,797
36,430,869.64 25,334,401.95 5,027,460 1,712,251 327,878
40,720,685.83 28,977,488.92 5,619,455 1,913,872 366,486
45,252,840.90 33,049,557.50 6,244,892 2,126,884 407,276
49,972,658.71 37,574,841.59 6,896,227 2,348,715 449,754
54,808,896.18 42,572,107.46 7,563,628 2,576,018 493,280
59,674,711.65 48,052,997.08 8,235,110 2,804,711 537,072
64,470,201.80 54,020,468.24 8,896,888 3,030,099 580,232
69,086,560.89 60,467,488.42 9,533,945 3,247,068 621,779
73,411,667.82 67,376,144.51 10,130,810 3,450,348 660,705
77,336,636.79 74,717,311.30 10,672,456 3,634,822 696,030
80,762,640.31 82,450,974.97 11,145,244 3,795,844 726,864
83,607,195.56 90,527,239.00 11,537,793 3,929,538 752,465
85,809,140.41 98,887,958.56 11,841,661 4,033,030 772,282
87,331,717.59 107,468,872.60 12,051,777 4,104,591 785,985
88,163,490.44 116,202,044.36 12,166,562 4,143,684 793,471
88,317,154.46 125,018,393.40 12,187,767 4,150,906 794,854
87,826,604.63 133,850,108.85 12,120,071 4,127,850 790,439
86,742,808.32 142,632,769.31 11,970,508 4,076,912 780,685
85,129,095.19 151,307,050.15 11,747,815 4,001,067 766,162
83,056,423.79 159,819,959.66 11,461,786 3,903,652 747,508
80,599,057.92 168,125,602.04 11,122,670 3,788,156 725,392
77,830,928.38 176,185,507.84 10,740,668 3,658,054 700,478
74,822,805.98 183,968,600.67 10,325,547 3,516,672 673,405
71,640,291.30 191,450,881.27 9,886,360 3,367,094 644,763
68,342,545.51 198,614,910.40 9,431,271 3,212,100 615,083
64,981,641.74 205,449,164.95 8,967,467 3,054,137 584,835
61,602,401.71 211,947,329.13 8,501,131 2,895,313 554,422
58,242,586.56 218,107,569.30 8,037,477 2,737,402 524,183
54,933,327.18 223,931,827.95 7,580,799 2,581,866 494,400
51,699,700.33 229,425,160.67 7,134,559 2,429,886 465,297
48,561,378.25 234,595,130.71 6,701,470 2,282,385 437,052
45,533,299.08 239,451,268.53 6,283,595 2,140,065 409,800
42,626,321.88 244,004,598.44 5,882,432 2,003,437 383,637
39,847,842.76 248,267,230.63 5,499,002 1,872,849 358,631
37,202,358.85 252,252,014.90 5,133,926 1,748,511 334,821
34,691,973.54 255,972,250.79 4,787,492 1,630,523 312,228
32,316,841.53 259,441,448.14 4,459,724 1,518,892 290,852
30,075,555.55 262,673,132.29 4,150,427 1,413,551 270,680
27,965,478.22 265,680,687.85 3,859,236 1,314,377 251,689
25,983,024.00 268,477,235.67 3,585,657 1,221,202 233,847
24,123,896.41 271,075,538.07 3,329,098 1,133,823 217,115
22,383,285.77 273,487,927.71 3,088,893 1,052,014 201,450
20,756,032.64 275,726,256.29 2,864,333 975,534 186,804
19,236,761.57 277,801,859.55 2,654,673 904,128 173,131
17,819,989.59 279,725,535.71 2,459,159 837,540 160,380
16,500,213.10 281,507,534.67 2,277,029 775,510 148,502
15,271,976.75 283,157,555.98 2,107,533 717,783 137,448
14,129,927.03 284,684,753.65 1,949,930 664,107 127,169
13,068,853.33 286,097,746.36 1,803,502 614,236 117,620
12,083,718.41 287,404,631.69 1,667,553 567,935 108,753
11,169,680.37 288,613,003.53 1,541,416 524,975 100,527
10,322,107.54 289,729,971.57 1,424,451 485,139 92,899
9,536,587.66 290,762,182.32 1,316,049 448,220 85,829
8,808,932.52 291,715,841.09 1,215,633 414,020 79,280
8,135,178.89 292,596,734.34 1,122,655 382,353 73,217
7,511,586.59 293,410,252.23 1,036,599 353,045 67,604
6,934,634.40 294,161,410.89 956,980 325,928 62,412
6,401,014.13 294,854,874.33 883,340 300,848 57,609
5,907,623.59 295,494,975.74 815,252 277,658 53,169
5,451,558.52 296,085,738.10 752,315 256,223 49,064
5,030,104.03 296,630,893.95 694,154 236,415 45,271
4,640,725.55 297,133,904.36 640,420 218,114 41,767
4,281,059.72 297,597,976.91 590,786 201,210 38,530
3,948,905.11 298,026,082.88 544,949 185,599 35,540
3,642,213.14 298,420,973.39 502,625 171,184 32,780
3,359,079.08 298,785,194.71 463,553 157,877 30,232
3,097,733.37 299,121,102.62 427,487 145,593 27,880
2,856,533.18 299,430,875.95 394,202 134,257 25,709
2,633,954.32 299,716,529.27 363,486 123,796 23,706
2,428,583.47 299,979,924.70 335,145 114,143 21,857
2,239,110.86 300,222,783.05 308,997 105,238 20,152
2,064,323.23 300,446,694.14 284,877 97,023 18,579
1,903,097.23 300,653,126.46 262,627 89,446 17,128
1,754,393.18 300,843,436.18 242,106 82,456 15,790
1,617,249.17 301,018,875.50 223,180 76,011 14,555
1,490,775.56 301,180,600.42 205,727 70,066 13,417
1,374,149.81 301,329,677.97 189,633 64,585 12,367
1,266,611.60 301,467,092.95 174,792 59,531 11,400
1,167,458.32 301,593,754.11 161,109 54,871 10,507
1,076,040.87 301,710,499.95 148,494 50,574 9,684
991,759.66 301,818,104.03 136,863 46,613 8,926
914,060.98 301,917,280.00 126,140 42,961 8,227
842,433.58 302,008,686.10 116,256 39,594 7,582
776,405.47 302,092,929.46 107,144 36,491 6,988
715,540.99 302,170,570.00 98,745 33,630 6,440
659,438.08 302,242,124.10 91,002 30,994 5,935
607,725.70 302,308,067.91 83,866 28,563 5,470
560,061.51 302,368,840.48 77,288 26,323 5,041
516,129.66 302,424,846.63 71,226 24,258 4,645
475,638.81 302,476,459.60 65,638 22,355 4,281
438,320.21 302,524,023.48 60,488 20,601 3,945
403,925.96 302,567,855.50 55,742 18,985 3,635
372,227.47 302,608,248.10 51,367 17,495 3,350
343,013.92 302,645,470.84 47,336 16,122 3,087
316,090.91 302,679,772.24 43,621 14,856 2,845
291,279.17 302,711,381.33 40,197 13,690 2,622
268,413.43 302,740,509.24 37,041 12,615 2,416
247,341.31 302,767,350.59 34,133 11,625 2,226
227,922.33 302,792,084.72 31,453 10,712 2,051
210,026.95 302,814,876.95 28,984 9,871 1,890
193,535.81 302,835,879.65 26,708 9,096 1,742
178,338.82 302,855,233.23 24,611 8,382 1,605
164,334.54 302,873,067.11 22,678 7,724 1,479
151,429.45 302,889,500.56 20,897 7,117 1,363
139,537.36 302,904,643.51 19,256 6,558 1,256
128,578.81 302,918,597.24 17,744 6,043 1,157
118,480.57 302,931,455.12 16,350 5,569 1,066
109,175.16 302,943,303.18 15,066 5,131 983
100,600.36 302,954,220.70 13,883 4,728 905
92,698.86 302,964,280.73 12,792 4,357 834
85,417.80 302,973,550.62 11,788 4,015 769
78,708.49 302,982,092.40 10,862 3,699 708
72,526.07 302,989,963.25 10,009 3,409 653
66,829.16 302,997,215.85 9,222 3,141 601
61,579.66 303,003,898.77 8,498 2,894 554
56,742.44 303,010,056.74 7,830 2,667 511
52,285.14 303,015,730.98 7,215 2,457 471
48,177.91 303,020,959.49 6,649 2,264 434
44,393.29 303,025,777.28 6,126 2,086 400
40,905.93 303,030,216.61 5,645 1,923 368
37,692.49 303,034,307.21 5,202 1,772 339
34,731.46 303,038,076.46 4,793 1,632 313
32,003.02 303,041,549.60 4,416 1,504 288
29,488.90 303,044,749.90 4,069 1,386 265
27,172.27 303,047,698.79 3,750 1,277 245
25,037.62 303,050,416.02 3,455 1,177 225
23,070.66 303,052,919.78 3,184 1,084 208
21,258.21 303,055,226.85 2,934 999 191
19,588.14 303,057,352.67 2,703 921 176
18,049.27 303,059,311.49 2,491 848 162
16,631.28 303,061,116.41 2,295 782 150
15,324.69 303,062,779.54 2,115 720 138
14,120.75 303,064,312.01 1,949 664 127
13,011.38 303,065,724.08 1,796 612 117
11,989.17 303,067,025.22 1,655 563 108
11,047.26 303,068,224.14 1,525 519 99
10,179.35 303,069,328.87 1,405 478 92
9,379.62 303,070,346.80 1,294 441 84
8,642.73 303,071,284.76 1,193 406 78
7,963.72 303,072,149.04 1,099 374 72
7,338.06 303,072,945.41 1,013 345 66
6,761.55 303,073,679.21 933 318 61
6,230.33 303,074,355.37 860 293 56
5,740.85 303,074,978.40 792 270 52
5,289.82 303,075,552.49 730 249 48
4,874.23 303,076,081.47 673 229 44
4,491.28 303,076,568.89 620 211 40
4,138.43 303,077,018.02 571 195 37
3,813.29 303,077,431.86 526 179 34
3,513.70 303,077,813.19 485 165 32
3,237.65 303,078,164.56 447 152 29
2,983.28 303,078,488.33 412 140 27
2,748.90 303,078,786.65 379 129 25
2,532.93 303,079,061.54 350 119 23
2,333.93 303,079,314.84 322 110 21
2,150.56 303,079,548.23 297 101 19
1,981.60 303,079,763.29 273 93 18
1,825.92 303,079,961.45 252 86 16
1,682.46 303,080,144.04 232 79 15
1,550.28 303,080,312.28 214 73 14
1,428.48 303,080,467.31 197 67 13
1,316.25 303,080,610.16 182 62 12
1,212.84 303,080,741.79 167 57 11
1,117.55 303,080,863.07 154 53 10
1,029.75 303,080,974.82 142 48 9
948.85 303,081,077.80 131 45 9
874.30 303,081,172.68 121 41 8
805.61 303,081,260.11 111 38 7
742.32 303,081,340.68 102 35 7
684.00 303,081,414.91 94 32 6
630.26 303,081,483.31 87 30 6
580.74 303,081,546.33 80 27 5
535.12 303,081,604.41 74 25 5
493.07 303,081,657.92 68 23 4
454.33 303,081,707.23 63 21 4
418.64 303,081,752.66 58 20 4
385.75 303,081,794.52 53 18 3
355.44 303,081,833.10 49 17 3
327.52 303,081,868.64 45 15 3
301.78 303,081,901.39 42 14 3
278.08 303,081,931.57 38 13 3
256.23 303,081,959.38 35 12 2
236.10 303,081,985.00 33 11 2
217.55 303,082,008.61 30 10 2
200.46 303,082,030.37 28 9 2
184.71 303,082,050.41 25 9 2
170.20 303,082,068.88 23 8 2
156.82 303,082,085.90 22 7 1
144.50 303,082,101.59 20 7 1
133.15 303,082,116.04 18 6 1
122.69 303,082,129.35 17 6 1
113.05 303,082,141.62 16 5 1
104.17 303,082,152.93 14 5 1
95.98 303,082,163.34 13 5 1
88.44 303,082,172.94 12 4 1
81.49 303,082,181.78 11 4 1
75.09 303,082,189.93 10 4 1
69.19 303,082,197.44 10 3 1
63.76 303,082,204.36 9 3 1
58.75 303,082,210.74 8 3 1
54.13 303,082,216.61 7 3 0
49.88 303,082,222.03 7 2 0
45.96 303,082,227.01 6 2 0
42.35 303,082,231.61 6 2 0
39.02 303,082,235.84 5 2 0
35.96 303,082,239.75 5 2 0
33.13 303,082,243.34 5 2 0
30.53 303,082,246.66 4 1 0
28.13 303,082,249.71 4 1 0
25.92 303,082,252.52 4 1 0
23.88 303,082,255.11 3 1 0
22.01 303,082,257.50 3 1 0
20.28 303,082,259.70 3 1 0
18.68 303,082,261.73 3 1 0
17.22 303,082,263.60 2 1 0
15.86 303,082,265.32 2 1 0
14.62 303,082,266.91 2 1 0
13.47 303,082,268.37 2 1 0
12.41 303,082,269.72 2 1 0
11.44 303,082,270.96 2 1 0
10.54 303,082,272.10 1 0 0
9.71 303,082,273.15 1 0 0
8.95 303,082,274.12 1 0 0
8.24 303,082,275.02 1 0 0
7.60 303,082,275.84 1 0 0
7.00 303,082,276.60 1 0 0
6.45 303,082,277.30 1 0 0
5.94 303,082,277.95 1 0 0
5.48 303,082,278.54 1 0 0
5.05 303,082,279.09 1 0 0
4.65 303,082,279.59 1 0 0
4.28 303,082,280.06 1 0 0
3.95 303,082,280.49 1 0 0
3.64 303,082,280.88 1 0 0
3.35 303,082,281.25 0 0 0
3.09 303,082,281.58 0 0 0
2.85 303,082,281.89 0 0 0
2.62 303,082,282.17 0 0 0
2.42 303,082,282.44 0 0 0
2.23 303,082,282.68 0 0 0
2.05 303,082,282.90 0 0 0
1.89 303,082,283.11 0 0 0
1.74 303,082,283.30 0 0 0
1.60 303,082,283.47 0 0 0
1.48 303,082,283.63 0 0 0
1.36 303,082,283.78 0 0 0
1.26 303,082,283.91 0 0 0
1.16 303,082,284.04 0 0 0
1.07 303,082,284.16 0 0 0
0.98 303,082,284.26 0 0 0
0.91 303,082,284.36 0 0 0
Model parameters Value*

Contact Rate 13.4

Transmissibility 2.0%

Duration of Infectiousness 10

% Needing Hospitalization 13.80%

% Needing ICU Care 4.70%

Mortality rate 0.90%


Definitions

The number of susceptible people an infectious person


contacts.

The probability that a contact between a susceptible person


and an infected person results in infection.

The period of time (in days) an infected person can pass the
infection.

The proportion of infected people who require hospital care.

The proportion of infected people who require ICU care.

The proportion of infected people who die.

*see Details tab for explanations, suggested ranges, and


references
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Model Impact on healthcare system
350,000,000 14,000,000

300,000,000 12,000,000

250,000,000 10,000,000

8,000,000
200,000,000

6,000,000
150,000,000

4,000,000
100,000,000
2,000,000
50,000,000
-
0 1/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/20
1/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/2020 10/21/2020
# Needing Hospitalization
Susceptible Infected Recovered Deaths

Reproduction
Date Number Contact rate Transmissibility Susceptible

1/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,405


1/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.73
1/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.42
1/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.05
1/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,403.63
1/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,403.13
1/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,402.54
1/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,401.86
1/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,401.07
1/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,400.14
1/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,399.06
2/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,397.79
2/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,396.31
2/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,394.58
2/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,392.57
2/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,390.21
2/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,387.46
2/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,384.24
2/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,380.49
2/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,376.10
2/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,370.98
2/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,364.99
2/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,358.00
2/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,349.84
2/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,340.30
2/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,329.17
2/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,316.16
2/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,300.97
2/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,283.22
2/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,262.49
2/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,238.28
2/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,210.01
2/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,176.98
2/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,138.41
2/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,093.35
2/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,040.73
2/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,979.26
2/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,907.47
2/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,823.62
2/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,725.68
3/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,611.28
3/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,477.67
3/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,321.61
3/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,139.33
3/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,926.44
3/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,677.77
3/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,387.33
3/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,048.10
3/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,426,651.87
3/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,426,189.08
3/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,425,648.55
3/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,425,017.20
3/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,424,279.80
3/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,423,418.52
3/15/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,422,412.54
3/16/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,422,118.80
3/17/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,421,834.75
3/18/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,421,560.08
3/19/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,421,294.47
3/20/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,421,037.62
3/21/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,420,789.26
3/22/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,420,549.09
3/23/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,420,316.84
3/24/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,420,092.26
3/25/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,875.10
3/26/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,665.10
3/27/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,462.03
3/28/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,265.66
3/29/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,075.77
3/30/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,892.15
3/31/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,714.59
4/1/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,542.89
4/2/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,376.85
4/3/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,216.30
4/4/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,061.04
4/5/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,910.91
4/6/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,765.73
4/7/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,625.35
4/8/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,489.60
4/9/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,358.32
4/10/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,231.38
4/11/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,108.63
4/12/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,989.93
4/13/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,875.15
4/14/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,764.16
4/15/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,656.82
4/16/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,553.04
4/17/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,452.67
4/18/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,355.62
4/19/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,261.77
4/20/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,171.02
4/21/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,083.27
4/22/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,998.41
4/23/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,916.35
4/24/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,837.00
4/25/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,760.26
4/26/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,686.06
4/27/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,614.31
4/28/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,544.93
4/29/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,477.84
4/30/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,412.96
5/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,415,350.22
5/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,415,107.55
5/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,414,824.12
5/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,414,493.07
5/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,414,106.41
5/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,413,654.80
5/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,413,127.33
5/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,412,511.24
5/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,411,791.67
5/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,410,951.21
5/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,409,969.58
5/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,408,823.04
5/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,407,483.92
5/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,405,919.85
5/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,404,093.05
5/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,401,959.39
5/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,399,467.34
5/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,396,556.71
5/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,393,157.19
5/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,389,186.68
5/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,384,549.30
5/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,379,133.07
5/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,372,807.21
5/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,365,419.01
5/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,356,790.12
5/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,346,712.30
5/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,334,942.35
5/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,321,196.34
5/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,305,142.73
5/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,286,394.43
5/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,264,499.56
6/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,238,930.61
6/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,209,071.81
6/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,174,204.53
6/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,133,490.11
6/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,085,950.00
6/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,030,442.61
6/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,965,636.43
6/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,889,978.74
6/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,801,659.42
6/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,698,568.91
6/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,578,249.58
6/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,437,839.55
6/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,274,007.90
6/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 328,082,880.07
6/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 327,859,952.29
6/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 327,599,993.61
6/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 327,296,934.26
6/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 326,943,739.02
6/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 326,532,264.22
6/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 326,053,097.54
6/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 325,495,379.83
6/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 324,846,609.07
6/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 324,092,427.40
6/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 323,216,393.55
6/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 322,199,745.04
6/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 321,021,157.04
6/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 319,656,508.28
6/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 318,078,669.17
6/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 316,257,332.53
6/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 314,158,914.67
7/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 311,746,562.20
7/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 308,980,308.87
7/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 305,817,435.60
7/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 302,213,094.28
7/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 298,121,260.60
7/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 293,496,079.54
7/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 288,293,656.23
7/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 282,474,320.22
7/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 276,005,349.46
7/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 268,864,077.60
7/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 261,041,227.65
7/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 252,544,220.33
7/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 243,400,111.83
7/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 233,657,744.39
7/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 223,388,669.90
7/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 212,686,460.09
7/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 201,664,160.70
7/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 190,449,878.65
7/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 179,180,776.12
7/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 167,996,026.33
7/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 157,029,490.87
7/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 146,402,948.93
7/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 136,220,619.45
7/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 126,565,487.78
7/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 117,497,641.29
7/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 109,054,509.00
7/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 101,252,659.77
7/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 94,090,678.27
7/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 87,552,612.77
7/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 81,611,549.02
7/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 76,232,973.86
8/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 71,377,715.11
8/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 67,004,355.42
8/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 63,071,103.02
8/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 59,537,159.12
8/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 56,363,652.27
8/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 53,514,221.60
8/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 50,955,329.29
8/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 48,656,373.77
8/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 46,589,663.47
8/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 44,730,298.11
8/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 43,055,993.73
8/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 41,546,877.47
8/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 40,185,270.58
8/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 38,955,472.23
8/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 37,843,551.94
8/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 36,837,155.38
8/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 35,925,326.07
8/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 35,098,343.78
8/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 34,347,579.53
8/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 33,665,366.48
8/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 33,044,885.61
8/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 32,480,064.87
8/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 31,965,490.48
8/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 31,496,329.18
8/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 31,068,259.97
8/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 30,677,414.41
8/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 30,320,324.32
8/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 29,993,876.04
8/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 29,695,270.24
8/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 29,421,986.84
8/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 29,171,754.08
9/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,942,521.46
9/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,732,435.88
9/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,539,820.64
9/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,363,156.92
9/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,201,067.40
9/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 28,052,301.79
9/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,915,724.00
9/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,790,300.74
9/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,675,091.38
9/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,569,238.93
9/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,471,962.02
9/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,382,547.65
9/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,300,344.79
9/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,224,758.63
9/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,155,245.35
9/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,091,307.47
9/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 27,032,489.71
9/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,978,375.16
9/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,928,581.87
9/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,882,759.78
9/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,840,587.96
9/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,801,772.02
9/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,766,041.85
9/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,733,149.54
9/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,702,867.50
9/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,674,986.70
9/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,649,315.14
9/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,625,676.42
9/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,603,908.40
9/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,583,862.08
10/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,565,400.45
10/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,548,397.54
10/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,532,737.48
10/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,518,313.72
10/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,505,028.22
10/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,492,790.80
10/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,481,518.45
10/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,471,134.81
10/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,461,569.58
10/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,452,758.08
10/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,444,640.74
10/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,437,162.75
10/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,430,273.63
10/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,423,926.90
10/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,418,079.79
10/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,412,692.89
10/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,407,729.91
10/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,403,157.46
10/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,398,944.74
10/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,395,063.43
10/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,391,487.42
10/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,388,192.66
10/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,385,157.03
10/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,382,360.11
10/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,379,783.12
10/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,377,408.75
10/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,375,221.06
10/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,373,205.36
10/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,371,348.12
10/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,369,636.88
10/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,368,060.15
11/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,366,607.36
11/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,365,268.76
11/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,364,035.36
11/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,362,898.91
11/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,361,851.77
11/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,360,886.92
11/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,359,997.90
11/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,359,178.74
11/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,358,423.96
11/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,357,728.49
11/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,357,087.67
11/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,356,497.20
11/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,355,953.14
11/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,355,451.82
11/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,354,989.90
11/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,354,564.27
11/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,354,172.08
11/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,353,810.72
11/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,353,477.74
11/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,353,170.93
11/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,352,888.22
11/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,352,627.73
11/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,352,387.70
11/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,352,166.53
11/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,351,962.74
11/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,351,774.96
11/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,351,601.94
11/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,351,442.50
11/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,351,295.60
11/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,351,160.24
12/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,351,035.51
12/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,920.58
12/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,814.68
12/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,717.10
12/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,627.19
12/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,544.34
12/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,468.00
12/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,397.66
12/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,332.84
12/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,273.12
12/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,218.09
12/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,167.38
12/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,120.66
12/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,077.61
12/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,037.94
12/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,350,001.38
12/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,967.70
12/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,936.66
12/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,908.07
12/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,881.72
12/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,857.44
12/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,835.06
12/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,814.45
12/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,795.45
12/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,777.95
12/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,761.82
12/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,746.96
12/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,733.27
12/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,720.65
12/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,709.02
12/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,698.31
1/1/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,688.44
1/2/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,679.34
1/3/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,670.96
1/4/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,663.24
1/5/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,656.13
1/6/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,649.57
1/7/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,643.53
1/8/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,637.96
1/9/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,632.83
1/10/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,628.10
1/11/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,623.75
1/12/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,619.73
1/13/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,616.04
1/14/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,612.63
1/15/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,609.49
1/16/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,606.60
1/17/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,603.93
1/18/2021 2.68 13.4 2.0% 26,349,601.47
1/19/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 26,349,599.21
Impact on healthcare system and mortality Instructions
000 Change the model in
two ways:
000
1. Change the values in the
000
GOLD cells at right to modify
the entire model.
000
2. Change the daily Contact
000
Rate values in BLUE below to
simulate the effect of
000
beginning and ending
community actions (e.g. school
000 closure).
-
1/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/2020 10/21/2020

# Needing Hospitalization # Needing ICU care


Deaths

# Needing # Needing ICU


Infected Recovered Hospitalization care Deaths

1 - 0 0 0
1.17 0.10 0 0 0
1.36 0.22 0 0 0
1.59 0.35 0 0 0
1.86 0.51 0 0 0
2.17 0.70 0 0 0
2.54 0.92 0 0 0
2.97 1.17 0 0 0
3.46 1.47 0 0 0
4.05 1.81 1 0 0
4.73 2.22 1 0 0
5.52 2.69 1 0 0
6.45 3.24 1 0 0
7.53 3.89 1 0 0
8.79 4.64 1 0 0
10.27 5.52 1 0 0
12.00 6.55 2 1 0
14.01 7.75 2 1 0
16.37 9.15 2 1 0
19.12 10.78 3 1 0
22.33 12.70 3 1 0
26.08 14.93 4 1 0
30.46 17.54 4 1 0
35.58 20.58 5 2 0
41.56 24.14 6 2 0
48.54 28.30 7 2 0
56.69 33.15 8 3 1
66.22 38.82 9 3 1
77.34 45.44 11 4 1
90.33 53.17 12 4 1
105.51 62.21 15 5 1
123.23 72.76 17 6 1
143.94 85.08 20 7 1
168.12 99.47 23 8 2
196.36 116.29 27 9 2
229.35 135.92 32 11 2
267.88 158.86 37 13 2
312.88 185.65 43 15 3
365.45 216.93 50 17 3
426.84 253.48 59 20 4
498.55 296.16 69 23 4
582.31 346.02 80 27 5
680.14 404.25 94 32 6
794.40 472.26 110 37 7
927.86 551.70 128 44 8
1,083.74 644.49 150 51 10
1,265.81 752.86 175 59 11
1,478.46 879.44 204 69 13
1,726.84 1,027.29 238 81 16
2,016.94 1,199.97 278 95 18
2,355.78 1,401.67 325 111 21
2,751.55 1,637.25 380 129 25
3,213.80 1,912.40 444 151 29
3,753.70 2,233.78 518 176 34
4,384.31 2,609.15 605 206 39
4,239.62 3,047.58 585 199 38
4,099.70 3,471.54 566 193 37
3,964.41 3,881.52 547 186 36
3,833.58 4,277.96 529 180 35
3,707.06 4,661.31 512 174 33
3,584.72 5,032.02 495 168 32
3,466.42 5,390.49 478 163 31
3,352.02 5,737.13 463 158 30
3,241.40 6,072.34 447 152 29
3,134.43 6,396.48 433 147 28
3,030.99 6,709.92 418 142 27
2,930.96 7,013.02 404 138 26
2,834.23 7,306.11 391 133 26
2,740.69 7,589.54 378 129 25
2,650.25 7,863.61 366 125 24
2,562.78 8,128.63 354 120 23
2,478.20 8,384.91 342 116 22
2,396.42 8,632.73 331 113 22
2,317.33 8,872.37 320 109 21
2,240.85 9,104.10 309 105 20
2,166.90 9,328.19 299 102 20
2,095.39 9,544.88 289 98 19
2,026.23 9,754.42 280 95 18
1,959.36 9,957.04 270 92 18
1,894.70 10,152.98 261 89 17
1,832.17 10,342.45 253 86 16
1,771.70 10,525.66 244 83 16
1,713.23 10,702.83 236 81 15
1,656.69 10,874.16 229 78 15
1,602.02 11,039.83 221 75 14
1,549.15 11,200.03 214 73 14
1,498.02 11,354.94 207 70 13
1,448.58 11,504.75 200 68 13
1,400.78 11,649.60 193 66 13
1,354.55 11,789.68 187 64 12
1,309.84 11,925.14 181 62 12
1,266.61 12,056.12 175 60 11
1,224.81 12,182.78 169 58 11
1,184.39 12,305.26 163 56 11
1,145.30 12,423.70 158 54 10
1,107.50 12,538.23 153 52 10
1,070.95 12,648.98 148 50 10
1,035.61 12,756.08 143 49 9
1,001.43 12,859.64 138 47 9
968.38 12,959.78 134 46 9
936.42 13,056.62 129 44 8
905.52 13,150.26 125 43 8
1,057.63 13,240.81 146 50 10
1,235.30 13,346.58 170 58 11
1,442.82 13,470.11 199 68 13
1,685.20 13,614.39 233 79 15
1,968.29 13,782.91 272 93 18
2,298.94 13,979.74 317 108 21
2,685.13 14,209.63 371 126 24
3,136.19 14,478.14 433 147 28
3,663.02 14,791.76 505 172 33
4,278.36 15,158.07 590 201 39
4,997.05 15,585.90 690 235 45
5,836.48 16,085.61 805 274 53
6,816.90 16,669.25 941 320 61
7,962.01 17,350.94 1,099 374 72
9,299.46 18,147.15 1,283 437 84
10,861.56 19,077.09 1,499 510 98
12,686.04 20,163.25 1,751 596 114
14,816.96 21,431.85 2,045 696 133
17,305.77 22,913.55 2,388 813 156
20,212.57 24,644.13 2,789 950 182
23,607.55 26,665.38 3,258 1,110 212
27,572.65 29,026.14 3,805 1,296 248
32,203.59 31,783.40 4,444 1,514 290
37,612.12 35,003.76 5,190 1,768 339
43,928.73 38,764.97 6,062 2,065 395
51,305.80 43,157.85 7,080 2,411 462
59,921.23 48,288.43 8,269 2,816 539
69,982.72 54,280.55 9,658 3,289 630
81,732.75 61,278.82 11,279 3,841 736
95,454.34 69,452.10 13,173 4,486 859
111,477.86 78,997.53 15,384 5,239 1,003
130,188.87 90,145.32 17,966 6,119 1,172
152,037.26 103,164.20 20,981 7,146 1,368
177,547.96 118,367.93 24,502 8,345 1,598
207,333.27 136,122.73 28,612 9,745 1,866
242,107.33 156,856.05 33,411 11,379 2,179
282,702.79 181,066.79 39,013 13,287 2,544
330,090.19 209,337.07 45,552 15,514 2,971
385,400.49 242,346.09 53,185 18,114 3,469
449,950.95 280,886.13 62,093 21,148 4,050
525,275.19 325,881.23 72,488 24,688 4,727
613,157.70 378,408.75 84,616 28,818 5,518
715,673.58 439,724.52 98,763 33,637 6,441
835,234.05 511,291.88 115,262 39,256 7,517
974,638.42 594,815.28 134,500 45,808 8,772
1,137,133.27 692,279.12 156,924 53,445 10,234
1,326,479.29 805,992.45 183,054 62,345 11,938
1,547,026.60 938,640.38 213,490 72,710 13,923
1,803,798.74 1,093,343.04 248,924 84,779 16,234
2,102,585.54 1,273,722.91 290,157 98,822 18,923
2,450,044.70 1,483,981.47 338,106 115,152 22,050
2,853,810.99 1,728,985.94 393,826 134,129 25,684
3,322,611.56 2,014,367.04 458,520 156,163 29,904
3,866,384.26 2,346,628.19 533,561 181,720 34,797
4,496,394.34 2,733,266.62 620,502 211,331 40,468
5,225,342.91 3,182,906.05 721,097 245,591 47,028
6,067,457.37 3,705,440.34 837,309 285,170 54,607
7,038,550.75 4,312,186.08 971,320 330,812 63,347
8,156,032.31 5,016,041.16 1,125,532 383,334 73,404
9,438,846.94 5,831,644.39 1,302,561 443,626 84,950
10,907,314.72 6,775,529.08 1,505,209 512,644 98,166
12,582,836.58 7,866,260.55 1,736,431 591,393 113,246
14,487,426.19 9,124,544.21 1,999,265 680,909 130,387
16,643,024.89 10,573,286.83 2,296,737 782,222 149,787
19,070,556.08 12,237,589.32 2,631,737 896,316 171,635
21,788,681.53 14,144,644.93 3,006,838 1,024,068 196,098
24,812,236.69 16,323,513.08 3,424,089 1,166,175 223,310
28,150,349.03 18,804,736.75 3,884,748 1,323,066 253,353
31,804,284.89 21,619,771.65 4,388,991 1,494,801 286,239
35,765,128.26 24,800,200.14 4,935,588 1,680,961 321,886
40,011,465.38 28,376,712.97 5,521,582 1,880,539 360,103
44,507,326.17 32,377,859.51 6,142,011 2,091,844 400,566
49,200,702.04 36,828,592.12 6,789,697 2,312,433 442,806
54,022,999.28 41,748,662.33 7,455,174 2,539,081 486,207
58,889,773.84 47,150,962.25 8,126,789 2,767,819 530,008
63,703,006.27 53,039,939.64 8,791,015 2,994,041 573,327
68,355,005.03 59,410,240.27 9,432,991 3,212,685 615,195
72,733,786.58 66,245,740.77 10,037,263 3,418,488 654,604
76,729,510.46 73,519,119.43 10,588,672 3,606,287 690,566
80,241,309.20 81,192,070.47 11,073,301 3,771,342 722,172
83,183,713.74 89,216,201.39 11,479,352 3,909,635 748,653
85,491,884.30 97,534,572.77 11,797,880 4,018,119 769,427
87,125,025.36 106,083,761.20 12,023,253 4,094,876 784,125
88,067,654.49 114,796,263.73 12,153,336 4,139,180 792,609
88,328,735.53 123,603,029.18 12,189,366 4,151,451 794,959
87,938,994.26 132,435,902.73 12,135,581 4,133,133 791,451
86,946,944.07 141,229,802.16 11,998,678 4,086,506 782,522
85,414,231.16 149,924,496.57 11,787,164 4,014,469 768,728
83,410,873.55 158,465,919.68 11,510,701 3,920,311 750,698
81,010,849.95 166,807,007.04 11,179,497 3,807,510 729,098
78,288,340.11 174,908,092.03 10,803,791 3,679,552 704,595
75,314,764.85 182,736,926.04 10,393,438 3,539,794 677,833
72,156,648.06 190,268,402.53 9,957,617 3,391,362 649,410
68,874,235.65 197,484,067.33 9,504,645 3,237,089 619,868
65,520,755.98 204,371,490.90 9,041,864 3,079,476 589,687
62,142,187.23 210,923,566.50 8,575,622 2,920,683 559,280
58,777,399.18 217,137,785.22 8,111,281 2,762,538 528,997
55,458,551.57 223,015,525.14 7,653,280 2,606,552 499,127
52,211,651.93 228,561,380.30 7,205,208 2,453,948 469,905
49,057,197.04 233,782,545.49 6,769,893 2,305,688 441,515
46,010,842.70 238,688,265.19 6,349,496 2,162,510 414,098
43,084,062.81 243,289,349.46 5,945,601 2,024,951 387,757
40,284,772.79 247,597,755.74 5,559,299 1,893,384 362,563
37,617,902.40 251,626,233.02 5,191,271 1,768,041 338,561
35,085,910.51 255,388,023.26 4,841,856 1,649,038 315,773
32,689,239.75 258,896,614.31 4,511,115 1,536,394 294,203
30,426,712.34 262,165,538.29 4,198,886 1,430,055 273,840
28,295,870.41 265,208,209.52 3,904,830 1,329,906 254,663
26,293,265.66 268,037,796.56 3,628,471 1,235,783 236,639
24,414,703.34 270,667,123.13 3,369,229 1,147,491 219,732
22,655,446.06 273,108,593.46 3,126,452 1,064,806 203,899
21,010,382.32 275,374,138.07 2,899,433 987,488 189,093
19,474,164.83 277,475,176.30 2,687,435 915,286 175,267
18,041,322.73 279,422,592.78 2,489,703 847,942 162,372
16,706,351.76 281,226,725.06 2,305,477 785,199 150,357
15,463,785.80 282,897,360.23 2,134,002 726,798 139,174
14,308,252.78 284,443,738.81 1,974,539 672,488 128,774
13,234,517.59 285,874,564.09 1,826,363 622,022 119,111
12,237,514.11 287,198,015.85 1,688,777 575,163 110,138
11,312,368.49 288,421,767.26 1,561,107 531,681 101,811
10,454,415.05 289,553,004.11 1,442,709 491,358 94,090
9,659,206.30 290,598,445.61 1,332,970 453,983 86,933
8,922,518.29 291,564,366.25 1,231,308 419,358 80,303
8,240,352.04 292,456,618.07 1,137,169 387,297 74,163
7,608,932.08 293,280,653.28 1,050,033 357,620 68,480
7,024,702.59 294,041,546.49 969,409 330,161 63,222
6,484,321.86 294,744,016.75 894,836 304,763 58,359
5,984,655.28 295,392,448.93 825,882 281,279 53,862
5,522,767.54 295,990,914.46 762,142 259,570 49,705
5,095,914.05 296,543,191.21 703,236 239,508 45,863
4,701,532.01 297,052,782.62 648,811 220,972 42,314
4,337,231.25 297,522,935.82 598,538 203,850 39,035
4,000,785.04 297,956,658.94 552,108 188,037 36,007
3,690,120.91 298,356,737.45 509,237 173,436 33,211
3,403,311.67 298,725,749.54 469,657 159,956 30,630
3,138,566.66 299,066,080.71 433,122 147,513 28,247
2,894,223.28 299,379,937.37 399,403 136,028 26,048
2,668,738.83 299,669,359.70 368,286 125,431 24,019
2,460,682.70 299,936,233.58 339,574 115,652 22,146
2,268,728.99 300,182,301.85 313,085 106,630 20,419
2,091,649.38 300,409,174.75 288,648 98,308 18,825
1,928,306.52 300,618,339.69 266,106 90,630 17,355
1,777,647.69 300,811,170.34 245,315 83,549 15,999
1,638,698.87 300,988,935.11 226,140 77,019 14,748
1,510,559.15 301,152,805.00 208,457 70,996 13,595
1,392,395.54 301,303,860.91 192,151 65,443 12,532
1,283,438.03 301,443,100.47 177,114 60,322 11,551
1,182,975.03 301,571,444.27 163,251 55,600 10,647
1,090,349.08 301,689,741.77 150,468 51,246 9,813
1,004,952.90 301,798,776.68 138,684 47,233 9,045
926,225.62 301,899,271.97 127,819 43,533 8,336
853,649.38 301,991,894.54 117,804 40,122 7,683
786,746.07 302,077,259.47 108,571 36,977 7,081
725,074.38 302,155,934.08 100,060 34,078 6,526
668,227.00 302,228,441.52 92,215 31,407 6,014
615,828.06 302,295,264.22 84,984 28,944 5,542
567,530.75 302,356,847.02 78,319 26,674 5,108
523,015.10 302,413,600.10 72,176 24,582 4,707
481,985.94 302,465,901.61 66,514 22,653 4,338
444,170.99 302,514,100.20 61,296 20,876 3,998
409,319.11 302,558,517.30 56,486 19,238 3,684
377,198.71 302,599,449.21 52,053 17,728 3,395
347,596.17 302,637,169.08 47,968 16,337 3,128
320,314.55 302,671,928.70 44,203 15,055 2,883
295,172.22 302,703,960.16 40,734 13,873 2,657
272,001.72 302,733,477.38 37,536 12,784 2,448
250,648.66 302,760,677.55 34,590 11,780 2,256
230,970.70 302,785,742.42 31,874 10,856 2,079
212,836.60 302,808,839.49 29,371 10,003 1,916
196,125.40 302,830,123.15 27,065 9,218 1,765
180,725.57 302,849,735.69 24,940 8,494 1,627
166,534.33 302,867,808.24 22,982 7,827 1,499
153,456.91 302,884,461.68 21,177 7,212 1,381
141,405.97 302,899,807.37 19,514 6,646 1,273
130,301.01 302,913,947.96 17,982 6,124 1,173
120,067.83 302,926,978.07 16,569 5,643 1,081
110,638.03 302,938,984.85 15,268 5,200 996
101,948.60 302,950,048.65 14,069 4,792 918
93,941.43 302,960,243.51 12,964 4,415 845
86,562.99 302,969,637.65 11,946 4,068 779
79,763.93 302,978,293.95 11,007 3,749 718
73,498.77 302,986,270.35 10,143 3,454 661
67,725.62 302,993,620.22 9,346 3,183 610
62,405.85 303,000,392.79 8,612 2,933 562
57,503.87 303,006,633.37 7,936 2,703 518
52,986.88 303,012,383.76 7,312 2,490 477
48,824.65 303,017,682.45 6,738 2,295 439
44,989.32 303,022,564.91 6,209 2,114 405
41,455.24 303,027,063.84 5,721 1,948 373
38,198.73 303,031,209.37 5,271 1,795 344
35,198.02 303,035,029.24 4,857 1,654 317
32,433.00 303,038,549.04 4,476 1,524 292
29,885.17 303,041,792.34 4,124 1,405 269
27,537.47 303,044,780.86 3,800 1,294 248
25,374.19 303,047,534.61 3,502 1,193 228
23,380.84 303,050,072.02 3,227 1,099 210
21,544.07 303,052,410.11 2,973 1,013 194
19,851.59 303,054,564.52 2,740 933 179
18,292.06 303,056,549.67 2,524 860 165
16,855.04 303,058,378.88 2,326 792 152
15,530.90 303,060,064.38 2,143 730 140
14,310.79 303,061,617.47 1,975 673 129
13,186.52 303,063,048.55 1,820 620 119
12,150.58 303,064,367.20 1,677 571 109
11,196.01 303,065,582.26 1,545 526 101
10,316.44 303,066,701.86 1,424 485 93
9,505.96 303,067,733.51 1,312 447 86
8,759.16 303,068,684.10 1,209 412 79
8,071.02 303,069,560.02 1,114 379 73
7,436.94 303,070,367.12 1,026 350 67
6,852.68 303,071,110.81 946 322 62
6,314.32 303,071,796.08 871 297 57
5,818.25 303,072,427.51 803 273 52
5,361.15 303,073,009.34 740 252 48
4,939.97 303,073,545.45 682 232 44
4,551.87 303,074,039.45 628 214 41
4,194.26 303,074,494.64 579 197 38
3,864.75 303,074,914.06 533 182 35
3,561.12 303,075,300.54 491 167 32
3,281.35 303,075,656.65 453 154 30
3,023.56 303,075,984.79 417 142 27
2,786.01 303,076,287.14 384 131 25
2,567.14 303,076,565.74 354 121 23
2,365.45 303,076,822.46 326 111 21
2,179.62 303,077,059.00 301 102 20
2,008.38 303,077,276.96 277 94 18
1,850.59 303,077,477.80 255 87 17
1,705.20 303,077,662.86 235 80 15
1,571.24 303,077,833.38 217 74 14
1,447.79 303,077,990.50 200 68 13
1,334.05 303,078,135.28 184 63 12
1,229.24 303,078,268.69 170 58 11
1,132.67 303,078,391.61 156 53 10
1,043.68 303,078,504.88 144 49 9
961.69 303,078,609.25 133 45 9
886.13 303,078,705.42 122 42 8
816.52 303,078,794.03 113 38 7
752.37 303,078,875.68 104 35 7
693.26 303,078,950.92 96 33 6
638.79 303,079,020.25 88 30 6
588.61 303,079,084.12 81 28 5
542.36 303,079,142.99 75 25 5
499.75 303,079,197.22 69 23 4
460.49 303,079,247.20 64 22 4
424.31 303,079,293.25 59 20 4
390.98 303,079,335.68 54 18 4
360.26 303,079,374.78 50 17 3
331.96 303,079,410.80 46 16 3
305.88 303,079,444.00 42 14 3
281.85 303,079,474.58 39 13 3
259.70 303,079,502.77 36 12 2
239.30 303,079,528.74 33 11 2
220.50 303,079,552.67 30 10 2
203.18 303,079,574.72 28 10 2
187.21 303,079,595.04 26 9 2
172.51 303,079,613.76 24 8 2
158.95 303,079,631.01 22 7 1
146.47 303,079,646.91 20 7 1
134.96 303,079,661.55 19 6 1
124.36 303,079,675.05 17 6 1
114.59 303,079,687.48 16 5 1
105.58 303,079,698.94 15 5 1
97.29 303,079,709.50 13 5 1
Model parameters Value*

Contact Rate variable

Transmissibility 2.0%

Duration of Infectiousness 10

% Needing Hospitalization 13.80%

% Needing ICU Care 4.70%

Mortality rate 0.90%


Definitions

The number of susceptible people an infectious person


contacts.

The probability that a contact between a susceptible person


and an infected person results in infection.

The period of time (in days) an infected person can pass the
infection.

The proportion of infected people who require hospital care.

The proportion of infected people who require ICU care.

The proportion of infected people who die.

*see Details tab for explanations, suggested ranges, and


references
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Model Impact on healthcare system
350,000,000 9,000,000

8,000,000
300,000,000
7,000,000
250,000,000
6,000,000

200,000,000 5,000,000

4,000,000
150,000,000
3,000,000
100,000,000 2,000,000

50,000,000 1,000,000

-
0 1/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/20
1/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/2020 10/21/2020
# Needing Hospitalization
Susceptible Infected Recovered Deaths

Reproduction
Date Number Contact rate Transmissibility Susceptible

1/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,405


1/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.73
1/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.42
1/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.05
1/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,403.63
1/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,403.13
1/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,402.54
1/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,401.86
1/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,401.07
1/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,400.14
1/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,399.06
2/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,397.79
2/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,396.31
2/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,394.58
2/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,392.57
2/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,390.21
2/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,387.46
2/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,384.24
2/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,380.49
2/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,376.10
2/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,370.98
2/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,364.99
2/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,358.00
2/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,349.84
2/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,340.30
2/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,329.17
2/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,316.16
2/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,300.97
2/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,283.22
2/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,262.49
2/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,238.28
2/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,210.01
2/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,176.98
2/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,138.41
2/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,093.35
2/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,040.73
2/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,979.26
2/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,907.47
2/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,823.62
2/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,725.68
3/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,611.28
3/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,477.67
3/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,321.61
3/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,139.33
3/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,926.44
3/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,677.77
3/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,387.33
3/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,048.10
3/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,426,651.87
3/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,426,189.08
3/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,425,648.55
3/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,425,017.20
3/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,424,279.80
3/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,423,418.52
3/15/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,422,412.54
3/16/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,422,118.80
3/17/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,421,834.75
3/18/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,421,560.08
3/19/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,421,294.47
3/20/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,421,037.62
3/21/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,420,789.26
3/22/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,420,549.09
3/23/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,420,316.84
3/24/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,420,092.26
3/25/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,875.10
3/26/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,665.10
3/27/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,462.03
3/28/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,265.66
3/29/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,075.77
3/30/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,892.15
3/31/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,714.59
4/1/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,542.89
4/2/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,376.85
4/3/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,216.30
4/4/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,061.04
4/5/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,910.91
4/6/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,765.73
4/7/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,625.35
4/8/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,489.60
4/9/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,358.32
4/10/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,231.38
4/11/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,108.63
4/12/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,989.93
4/13/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,875.15
4/14/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,764.16
4/15/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,656.82
4/16/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,553.04
4/17/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,452.67
4/18/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,355.62
4/19/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,261.77
4/20/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,171.02
4/21/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,083.27
4/22/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,998.41
4/23/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,916.35
4/24/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,837.00
4/25/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,760.26
4/26/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,686.06
4/27/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,614.31
4/28/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,544.93
4/29/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,477.84
4/30/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,415,412.96
5/1/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,415,350.22
5/2/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,415,156.09
5/3/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,414,939.74
5/4/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,414,698.66
5/5/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,414,429.99
5/6/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,414,130.59
5/7/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,413,796.94
5/8/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,413,425.13
5/9/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,413,010.78
5/10/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,412,549.04
5/11/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,412,034.48
5/12/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,411,461.07
5/13/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,410,822.06
5/14/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,410,109.96
5/15/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,409,316.40
5/16/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,408,432.07
5/17/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,407,446.59
5/18/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,406,348.39
5/19/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,405,124.57
5/20/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,403,760.77
5/21/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,402,240.99
5/22/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,400,547.37
5/23/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,398,660.04
5/24/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,396,556.84
5/25/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,394,213.10
5/26/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,391,601.31
5/27/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,388,690.80
5/28/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,385,447.44
5/29/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,381,833.16
5/30/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,377,805.55
5/31/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,373,317.36
6/1/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,368,315.94
6/2/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,362,742.62
6/3/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,356,532.05
6/4/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,349,611.38
6/5/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,341,899.49
6/6/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,333,305.95
6/7/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,323,730.05
6/8/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,313,059.58
6/9/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,301,169.52
6/10/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,287,920.62
6/11/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,273,157.75
6/12/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,256,708.10
6/13/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,238,379.20
6/14/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,217,956.67
6/15/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,195,201.75
6/16/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,169,848.55
6/17/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,141,600.99
6/18/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,110,129.38
6/19/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,075,066.67
6/20/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,036,004.23
6/21/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,992,487.22
6/22/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,944,009.42
6/23/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,890,007.50
6/24/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,829,854.70
6/25/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,762,853.79
6/26/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,688,229.33
6/27/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,605,119.08
6/28/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,512,564.50
6/29/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,409,500.38
6/30/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,294,743.23
7/1/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,166,978.70
7/2/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,024,747.63
7/3/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,866,430.83
7/4/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,690,232.40
7/5/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,494,161.53
7/6/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,276,012.69
7/7/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,033,344.13
7/8/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 326,763,454.65
7/9/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 326,463,358.54
7/10/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 326,129,758.78
7/11/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 325,759,018.41
7/12/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 325,347,130.26
7/13/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 324,889,685.14
7/14/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 324,381,838.70
7/15/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 323,818,277.39
7/16/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 323,193,183.90
7/17/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 322,500,202.75
7/18/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 321,732,406.98
7/19/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 320,882,266.68
7/20/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 319,941,621.15
7/21/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 318,901,655.81
7/22/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 317,752,886.32
7/23/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 316,485,151.85
7/24/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 315,087,620.54
7/25/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 313,548,810.22
7/26/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 311,856,627.95
7/27/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 309,998,432.34
7/28/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 307,961,122.94
7/29/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 305,731,260.98
7/30/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 303,295,225.83
7/31/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 300,639,411.14
8/1/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 297,750,463.85
8/2/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 294,615,568.27
8/3/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 291,222,775.36
8/4/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 287,561,375.46
8/5/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 283,622,309.28
8/6/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 279,398,608.69
8/7/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 274,885,854.70
8/8/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 270,082,635.78
8/9/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 264,990,985.26
8/10/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 259,616,773.26
8/11/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 253,970,025.72
8/12/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 248,065,142.38
8/13/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 241,920,987.03
8/14/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 235,560,827.22
8/15/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 229,012,107.58
8/16/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 222,306,050.42
8/17/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 215,477,088.38
8/18/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 208,562,146.80
8/19/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 201,599,805.26
8/20/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 194,629,378.14
8/21/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 187,689,961.55
8/22/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 180,819,496.77
8/23/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 174,053,899.30
8/24/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 167,426,296.45
8/25/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 160,966,407.23
8/26/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 154,700,086.05
8/27/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 148,649,039.13
8/28/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 142,830,710.15
8/29/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 137,258,320.97
8/30/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 131,941,045.65
8/31/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 126,884,290.73
9/1/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 122,090,052.96
9/2/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 117,557,326.33
9/3/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 113,282,532.49
9/4/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 109,259,952.93
9/5/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 105,482,145.43
9/6/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 101,940,332.13
9/7/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 98,624,750.71
9/8/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 95,524,964.14
9/9/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 92,630,127.15
9/10/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 89,929,210.38
9/11/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 87,411,184.41
9/12/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 85,065,167.14
9/13/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 82,880,538.67
9/14/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 80,847,027.81
9/15/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 78,954,774.48
9/16/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 77,194,372.03
9/17/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 75,556,892.99
9/18/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 74,033,901.68
9/19/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 72,617,456.23
9/20/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 71,300,102.59
9/21/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 70,074,862.55
9/22/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 68,935,217.23
9/23/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 67,875,087.65
9/24/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 66,888,813.22
9/25/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 65,971,129.17
9/26/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 65,117,143.51
9/27/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 64,322,314.00
9/28/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 63,582,425.60
9/29/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 62,893,568.55
9/30/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 62,252,117.35
10/1/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 61,654,710.78
10/2/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 61,098,232.93
10/3/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 60,579,795.37
10/4/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 60,096,720.49
10/5/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 59,646,525.85
10/6/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 59,226,909.68
10/7/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 58,835,737.33
10/8/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 58,471,028.80
10/9/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 58,130,947.08
10/10/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 57,813,787.44
10/11/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 57,517,967.53
10/12/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 57,242,018.18
10/13/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 56,984,574.94
10/14/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 56,744,370.33
10/15/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 56,520,226.58
10/16/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 56,311,049.00
10/17/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 56,115,819.87
10/18/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 55,933,592.78
10/19/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 55,763,487.40
10/20/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 55,604,684.66
10/21/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 55,456,422.34
10/22/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 55,317,990.91
10/23/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 55,188,729.79
10/24/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 55,068,023.81
10/25/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,955,299.99
10/26/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,850,024.53
10/27/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,751,700.03
10/28/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,659,862.96
10/29/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,574,081.23
10/30/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,493,952.04
10/31/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,419,099.80
11/1/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,349,174.27
11/2/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,283,848.77
11/3/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,222,818.60
11/4/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,165,799.48
11/5/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,112,526.17
11/6/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,062,751.20
11/7/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 54,016,243.58
11/8/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,972,787.76
11/9/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,932,182.53
11/10/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,894,240.05
11/11/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,858,785.00
11/12/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,825,653.65
11/13/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,794,693.16
11/14/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,765,760.80
11/15/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,738,723.28
11/16/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,713,456.12
11/17/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,689,843.09
11/18/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,667,775.60
11/19/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,647,152.25
11/20/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,627,878.30
11/21/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,609,865.28
11/22/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,593,030.53
11/23/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,577,296.81
11/24/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,562,592.01
11/25/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,548,848.71
11/26/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,536,003.95
11/27/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,523,998.89
11/28/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,512,778.57
11/29/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,502,291.63
11/30/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,492,490.07
12/1/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,483,329.05
12/2/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,474,766.67
12/3/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,466,763.77
12/4/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,459,283.75
12/5/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,452,292.43
12/6/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,445,757.85
12/7/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,439,650.15
12/8/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,433,941.42
12/9/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,428,605.59
12/10/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,423,618.28
12/11/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,418,956.72
12/12/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,414,599.61
12/13/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,410,527.07
12/14/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,406,720.50
12/15/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,403,162.51
12/16/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,399,836.88
12/17/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,396,728.42
12/18/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,393,822.94
12/19/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,391,107.19
12/20/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,388,568.77
12/21/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,386,196.10
12/22/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,383,978.35
12/23/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,381,905.41
12/24/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,379,967.82
12/25/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,378,156.74
12/26/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,376,463.90
12/27/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,374,881.59
12/28/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,373,402.58
12/29/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,372,020.14
12/30/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,370,727.96
12/31/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,369,520.13
1/1/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,368,391.16
1/2/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,367,335.90
1/3/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,366,349.53
1/4/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,365,427.55
1/5/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,364,565.77
1/6/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,363,760.25
1/7/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,363,007.31
1/8/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,362,303.52
1/9/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,361,645.69
1/10/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,361,030.79
1/11/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,360,456.04
1/12/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,359,918.81
1/13/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,359,416.65
1/14/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,358,947.27
1/15/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,358,508.53
1/16/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,358,098.44
1/17/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,357,715.11
1/18/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 53,357,356.81
1/19/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 53,357,021.90
Impact on healthcare system and mortality Instructions
00 Change the model in
00 two ways:
00 1. Change the values in the
00 GOLD cells at right to modify
the entire model.
00

00
2. Change the daily Contact
Rate values in BLUE below to
00 simulate the effect of
beginning and ending
00
community actions (e.g. school
00 closure).
-
/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/2020 10/21/2020

# Needing Hospitalization # Needing ICU care


Deaths

# Needing # Needing ICU


Infected Recovered Hospitalization care Deaths

1 - 0 0 0
1.17 0.10 0 0 0
1.36 0.22 0 0 0
1.59 0.35 0 0 0
1.86 0.51 0 0 0
2.17 0.70 0 0 0
2.54 0.92 0 0 0
2.97 1.17 0 0 0
3.46 1.47 0 0 0
4.05 1.81 1 0 0
4.73 2.22 1 0 0
5.52 2.69 1 0 0
6.45 3.24 1 0 0
7.53 3.89 1 0 0
8.79 4.64 1 0 0
10.27 5.52 1 0 0
12.00 6.55 2 1 0
14.01 7.75 2 1 0
16.37 9.15 2 1 0
19.12 10.78 3 1 0
22.33 12.70 3 1 0
26.08 14.93 4 1 0
30.46 17.54 4 1 0
35.58 20.58 5 2 0
41.56 24.14 6 2 0
48.54 28.30 7 2 0
56.69 33.15 8 3 1
66.22 38.82 9 3 1
77.34 45.44 11 4 1
90.33 53.17 12 4 1
105.51 62.21 15 5 1
123.23 72.76 17 6 1
143.94 85.08 20 7 1
168.12 99.47 23 8 2
196.36 116.29 27 9 2
229.35 135.92 32 11 2
267.88 158.86 37 13 2
312.88 185.65 43 15 3
365.45 216.93 50 17 3
426.84 253.48 59 20 4
498.55 296.16 69 23 4
582.31 346.02 80 27 5
680.14 404.25 94 32 6
794.40 472.26 110 37 7
927.86 551.70 128 44 8
1,083.74 644.49 150 51 10
1,265.81 752.86 175 59 11
1,478.46 879.44 204 69 13
1,726.84 1,027.29 238 81 16
2,016.94 1,199.97 278 95 18
2,355.78 1,401.67 325 111 21
2,751.55 1,637.25 380 129 25
3,213.80 1,912.40 444 151 29
3,753.70 2,233.78 518 176 34
4,384.31 2,609.15 605 206 39
4,239.62 3,047.58 585 199 38
4,099.70 3,471.54 566 193 37
3,964.41 3,881.52 547 186 36
3,833.58 4,277.96 529 180 35
3,707.06 4,661.31 512 174 33
3,584.72 5,032.02 495 168 32
3,466.42 5,390.49 478 163 31
3,352.02 5,737.13 463 158 30
3,241.40 6,072.34 447 152 29
3,134.43 6,396.48 433 147 28
3,030.99 6,709.92 418 142 27
2,930.96 7,013.02 404 138 26
2,834.23 7,306.11 391 133 26
2,740.69 7,589.54 378 129 25
2,650.25 7,863.61 366 125 24
2,562.78 8,128.63 354 120 23
2,478.20 8,384.91 342 116 22
2,396.42 8,632.73 331 113 22
2,317.33 8,872.37 320 109 21
2,240.85 9,104.10 309 105 20
2,166.90 9,328.19 299 102 20
2,095.39 9,544.88 289 98 19
2,026.23 9,754.42 280 95 18
1,959.36 9,957.04 270 92 18
1,894.70 10,152.98 261 89 17
1,832.17 10,342.45 253 86 16
1,771.70 10,525.66 244 83 16
1,713.23 10,702.83 236 81 15
1,656.69 10,874.16 229 78 15
1,602.02 11,039.83 221 75 14
1,549.15 11,200.03 214 73 14
1,498.02 11,354.94 207 70 13
1,448.58 11,504.75 200 68 13
1,400.78 11,649.60 193 66 13
1,354.55 11,789.68 187 64 12
1,309.84 11,925.14 181 62 12
1,266.61 12,056.12 175 60 11
1,224.81 12,182.78 169 58 11
1,184.39 12,305.26 163 56 11
1,145.30 12,423.70 158 54 10
1,107.50 12,538.23 153 52 10
1,070.95 12,648.98 148 50 10
1,035.61 12,756.08 143 49 9
1,001.43 12,859.64 138 47 9
968.38 12,959.78 134 46 9
936.42 13,056.62 129 44 8
905.52 13,150.26 125 43 8
1,009.10 13,240.81 139 47 9
1,124.53 13,341.72 155 53 10
1,253.17 13,454.18 173 59 11
1,396.52 13,579.49 193 66 13
1,556.27 13,719.15 215 73 14
1,734.29 13,874.77 239 82 16
1,932.67 14,048.20 267 91 17
2,153.75 14,241.47 297 101 19
2,400.12 14,456.84 331 113 22
2,674.66 14,696.85 369 126 24
2,980.61 14,964.32 411 140 27
3,321.56 15,262.38 458 156 30
3,701.51 15,594.54 511 174 33
4,124.91 15,964.69 569 194 37
4,596.75 16,377.18 634 216 41
5,122.55 16,836.85 707 241 46
5,708.50 17,349.11 788 268 51
6,361.47 17,919.96 878 299 57
7,089.12 18,556.11 978 333 64
7,900.00 19,265.02 1,090 371 71
8,803.62 20,055.02 1,215 414 79
9,810.58 20,935.38 1,354 461 88
10,932.72 21,916.44 1,509 514 98
12,183.19 23,009.71 1,681 573 110
13,576.67 24,228.03 1,874 638 122
15,129.50 25,585.70 2,088 711 136
16,859.92 27,098.65 2,327 792 152
18,788.21 28,784.64 2,593 883 169
20,937.00 30,663.46 2,889 984 188
23,331.49 32,757.16 3,220 1,097 210
25,999.76 35,090.31 3,588 1,222 234
28,973.10 37,690.28 3,998 1,362 261
32,286.36 40,587.59 4,456 1,517 291
35,978.39 43,816.23 4,965 1,691 324
40,092.45 47,414.07 5,533 1,884 361
44,676.74 51,423.31 6,165 2,100 402
49,784.97 55,890.99 6,870 2,340 448
55,476.94 60,869.48 7,656 2,607 499
61,819.30 66,417.18 8,531 2,906 556
68,886.27 72,599.11 9,506 3,238 620
76,760.52 79,487.73 10,593 3,608 691
85,534.12 87,163.79 11,804 4,020 770
95,309.61 95,717.20 13,153 4,480 858
106,201.18 105,248.16 14,656 4,991 956
118,335.98 115,868.28 16,330 5,562 1,065
131,855.57 127,701.87 18,196 6,197 1,187
146,917.58 140,887.43 20,275 6,905 1,322
163,697.43 155,579.19 22,590 7,694 1,473
182,390.40 171,948.93 25,170 8,572 1,642
203,213.80 190,187.97 28,044 9,551 1,829
226,409.43 210,509.35 31,245 10,641 2,038
252,246.29 233,150.29 34,810 11,856 2,270
281,023.58 258,374.92 38,781 13,208 2,529
313,074.02 286,477.28 43,204 14,714 2,818
348,767.53 317,784.68 48,130 16,392 3,139
388,515.23 352,661.43 53,615 18,260 3,497
432,773.97 391,512.96 59,723 20,340 3,895
482,051.14 434,790.35 66,523 22,656 4,338
536,910.15 482,995.47 74,094 25,235 4,832
597,976.28 536,686.48 82,521 28,105 5,382
665,943.19 596,484.11 91,900 31,299 5,993
741,579.94 663,078.43 102,338 34,854 6,674
825,738.75 737,236.43 113,952 38,810 7,432
919,363.30 819,810.30 126,872 43,210 8,274
1,023,497.84 911,746.63 141,243 48,104 9,211
1,139,296.90 1,014,096.41 157,223 53,547 10,254
1,268,035.77 1,128,026.10 174,989 59,598 11,412
1,411,121.67 1,254,829.68 194,735 66,323 12,700
1,570,105.61 1,395,941.85 216,675 73,795 14,131
1,746,694.81 1,552,952.41 241,044 82,095 15,720
1,942,765.70 1,727,621.89 268,102 91,310 17,485
2,160,377.28 1,921,898.46 298,132 101,538 19,443
2,401,784.67 2,137,936.19 331,446 112,884 21,616
2,669,452.64 2,378,114.65 368,384 125,464 24,025
2,966,068.69 2,645,059.92 409,317 139,405 26,695
3,294,555.32 2,941,666.79 454,649 154,844 29,651
3,658,080.93 3,271,122.32 504,815 171,930 32,923
4,060,068.61 3,636,930.41 560,289 190,823 36,541
4,504,202.04 4,042,937.27 621,580 211,697 40,538
4,994,427.38 4,493,357.48 689,231 234,738 44,950
5,534,949.97 4,992,800.22 763,823 260,143 49,815
6,130,224.47 5,546,295.21 845,971 288,121 55,172
6,784,936.49 6,159,317.66 936,321 318,892 61,064
7,503,974.15 6,837,811.31 1,035,548 352,687 67,536
8,292,387.05 7,588,208.72 1,144,349 389,742 74,631
9,155,330.62 8,417,447.43 1,263,436 430,301 82,398
10,097,993.17 9,332,980.49 1,393,523 474,606 90,882
11,125,503.26 10,342,779.81 1,535,319 522,899 100,130
12,242,814.89 11,455,330.13 1,689,508 575,412 110,185
13,454,568.55 12,679,611.62 1,856,730 632,365 121,091
14,764,926.38 14,025,068.48 2,037,560 693,952 132,884
16,177,381.03 15,501,561.12 2,232,479 760,337 145,596
17,694,538.51 17,119,299.22 2,441,846 831,643 159,251
19,317,877.57 18,888,753.07 2,665,867 907,940 173,861
21,047,489.71 20,820,540.83 2,904,554 989,232 189,427
22,881,806.92 22,925,289.80 3,157,689 1,075,445 205,936
24,817,326.82 25,213,470.49 3,424,791 1,166,414 223,356
26,848,348.12 27,695,203.17 3,705,072 1,261,872 241,635
28,966,732.23 30,380,037.99 3,997,409 1,361,436 260,701
31,161,709.53 33,276,711.21 4,300,316 1,464,600 280,455
33,419,750.58 36,392,882.16 4,611,926 1,570,728 300,778
35,724,523.06 39,734,857.22 4,929,984 1,679,053 321,521
38,056,954.09 43,307,309.53 5,251,860 1,788,677 342,513
40,395,414.03 47,113,004.94 5,574,567 1,898,584 363,559
42,716,032.44 51,152,546.34 5,894,812 2,007,654 384,444
44,993,148.83 55,424,149.58 6,209,055 2,114,678 404,938
47,199,891.11 59,923,464.47 6,513,585 2,218,395 424,799
49,308,864.04 64,643,453.58 6,804,623 2,317,517 443,780
51,292,919.22 69,574,339.98 7,078,423 2,410,767 461,636
53,125,968.84 74,703,631.90 7,331,384 2,496,921 478,134
54,783,799.07 80,016,228.79 7,560,164 2,574,839 493,054
56,244,835.76 85,494,608.69 7,761,787 2,643,507 506,204
57,490,816.96 91,119,092.27 7,933,733 2,702,068 517,417
58,507,332.74 96,868,173.97 8,074,012 2,749,845 526,566
59,284,202.31 102,718,907.24 8,181,220 2,786,358 533,558
59,815,671.30 108,647,327.47 8,254,563 2,811,337 538,341
60,100,425.35 114,628,894.60 8,293,859 2,824,720 540,904
60,141,429.73 120,638,937.14 8,299,517 2,826,647 541,273
59,945,615.74 126,653,080.11 8,272,495 2,817,444 539,511
59,523,443.35 132,647,641.68 8,214,235 2,797,602 535,711
58,888,374.33 138,599,986.02 8,126,596 2,767,754 529,995
58,056,291.82 144,488,823.45 8,011,768 2,728,646 522,507
57,044,900.40 150,294,452.63 7,872,196 2,681,110 513,404
55,873,136.99 155,998,942.67 7,710,493 2,626,037 502,858
54,560,617.13 161,586,256.37 7,529,365 2,564,349 491,046
53,127,134.98 167,042,318.09 7,331,545 2,496,975 478,144
51,592,228.98 172,355,031.58 7,119,728 2,424,835 464,330
49,974,819.39 177,514,254.48 6,896,525 2,348,817 449,773
48,292,918.86 182,511,736.42 6,664,423 2,269,767 434,636
46,563,413.55 187,341,028.31 6,425,751 2,188,480 419,071
44,801,909.19 191,997,369.66 6,182,663 2,105,690 403,217
43,022,635.03 196,477,560.58 5,937,124 2,022,064 387,204
41,238,397.50 200,779,824.09 5,690,899 1,938,205 371,146
39,460,575.02 204,903,663.84 5,445,559 1,854,647 355,145
37,699,145.99 208,849,721.34 5,202,482 1,771,860 339,292
35,962,742.25 212,619,635.94 4,962,858 1,690,249 323,665
34,258,721.35 216,215,910.16 4,727,704 1,610,160 308,328
32,593,251.68 219,641,782.30 4,497,869 1,531,883 293,339
30,971,405.54 222,901,107.47 4,274,054 1,455,656 278,743
29,397,256.30 225,998,248.02 4,056,821 1,381,671 264,575
27,873,976.12 228,937,973.65 3,846,609 1,310,077 250,866
26,403,932.15 231,725,371.26 3,643,743 1,240,985 237,635
24,988,778.98 234,365,764.48 3,448,451 1,174,473 224,899
23,629,546.39 236,864,642.37 3,260,877 1,110,589 212,666
22,326,721.33 239,227,597.01 3,081,088 1,049,356 200,940
21,080,323.63 241,460,269.15 2,909,085 990,775 189,723
19,889,975.32 243,568,301.51 2,744,817 934,829 179,010
18,754,963.45 245,557,299.04 2,588,185 881,483 168,795
17,674,296.62 247,432,795.39 2,439,053 830,692 159,069
16,646,755.35 249,200,225.05 2,297,252 782,398 149,821
15,670,936.87 250,864,900.58 2,162,589 736,534 141,038
14,745,294.38 252,431,994.27 2,034,851 693,029 132,708
13,868,171.51 253,906,523.71 1,913,808 651,804 124,814
13,037,832.21 255,293,340.86 1,799,221 612,778 117,340
12,252,486.55 256,597,124.08 1,690,843 575,867 110,272
11,510,312.78 257,822,372.74 1,588,423 540,985 103,593
10,809,476.14 258,973,404.01 1,491,708 508,045 97,285
10,148,144.70 260,054,351.63 1,400,444 476,963 91,333
9,524,502.57 261,069,166.10 1,314,381 447,652 85,721
8,936,760.85 262,021,616.35 1,233,273 420,028 80,431
8,383,166.48 262,915,292.44 1,156,877 394,009 75,448
7,862,009.47 263,753,609.09 1,084,957 369,514 70,758
7,371,628.43 264,539,810.03 1,017,285 346,467 66,345
6,910,414.95 265,276,972.88 953,637 324,790 62,194
6,476,816.69 265,968,014.37 893,801 304,410 58,291
6,069,339.63 266,615,696.04 837,569 285,259 54,624
5,686,549.42 267,222,630.00 784,744 267,268 51,179
5,327,072.06 267,791,284.95 735,136 250,372 47,944
4,989,593.98 268,323,992.15 688,564 234,511 44,906
4,672,861.67 268,822,951.55 644,855 219,624 42,056
4,375,680.88 269,290,237.72 603,844 205,657 39,381
4,096,915.53 269,727,805.80 565,374 192,555 36,872
3,835,486.31 270,137,497.36 529,297 180,268 34,519
3,590,369.11 270,521,045.99 495,471 168,747 32,313
3,360,593.32 270,880,082.90 463,762 157,948 30,245
3,145,239.96 271,216,142.23 434,043 147,826 28,307
2,943,439.79 271,530,666.23 406,195 138,342 26,491
2,754,371.27 271,825,010.20 380,103 129,455 24,789
2,577,258.64 272,100,447.33 355,662 121,131 23,195
2,411,369.85 272,358,173.20 332,769 113,334 21,702
2,256,014.59 272,599,310.18 311,330 106,033 20,304
2,110,542.32 272,824,911.64 291,255 99,195 18,995
1,974,340.33 273,035,965.87 272,459 92,794 17,769
1,846,831.83 273,233,399.90 254,863 86,801 16,621
1,727,474.14 273,418,083.09 238,391 81,191 15,547
1,615,756.90 273,590,830.50 222,974 75,941 14,542
1,511,200.33 273,752,406.19 208,546 71,026 13,601
1,413,353.60 273,903,526.22 195,043 66,428 12,720
1,321,793.22 274,044,861.58 182,407 62,124 11,896
1,236,121.51 274,177,040.91 170,585 58,098 11,125
1,155,965.18 274,300,653.06 159,523 54,330 10,404
1,080,973.90 274,416,249.57 149,174 50,806 9,729
1,010,818.98 274,524,346.96 139,493 47,508 9,097
945,192.14 274,625,428.86 130,437 44,424 8,507
883,804.27 274,719,948.08 121,965 41,539 7,954
826,384.33 274,808,328.50 114,041 38,840 7,437
772,678.26 274,890,966.94 106,630 36,316 6,954
722,447.96 274,968,234.76 99,698 33,955 6,502
675,470.32 275,040,479.56 93,215 31,747 6,079
631,536.32 275,108,026.59 87,152 29,682 5,684
590,450.18 275,171,180.22 81,482 27,751 5,314
552,028.51 275,230,225.24 76,180 25,945 4,968
516,099.60 275,285,428.09 71,222 24,257 4,645
482,502.67 275,337,038.05 66,585 22,678 4,343
451,087.16 275,385,288.32 62,250 21,201 4,060
421,712.15 275,430,397.03 58,196 19,820 3,795
394,245.74 275,472,568.25 54,406 18,530 3,548
368,564.47 275,511,992.82 50,862 17,323 3,317
344,552.78 275,548,849.27 47,548 16,194 3,101
322,102.56 275,583,304.55 44,450 15,139 2,899
301,112.62 275,615,514.80 41,554 14,152 2,710
281,488.30 275,645,626.07 38,845 13,230 2,533
263,141.03 275,673,774.90 36,313 12,368 2,368
245,987.95 275,700,089.00 33,946 11,561 2,214
229,951.54 275,724,687.79 31,733 10,808 2,070
214,959.29 275,747,682.95 29,664 10,103 1,935
200,943.37 275,769,178.88 27,730 9,444 1,808
187,840.36 275,789,273.21 25,922 8,828 1,691
175,590.90 275,808,057.25 24,232 8,253 1,580
164,139.51 275,825,616.34 22,651 7,715 1,477
153,434.29 275,842,030.29 21,174 7,211 1,381
143,426.69 275,857,373.72 19,793 6,741 1,291
134,071.33 275,871,716.39 18,502 6,301 1,207
125,325.76 275,885,123.52 17,295 5,890 1,128
117,150.29 275,897,656.10 16,167 5,506 1,054
109,507.80 275,909,371.13 15,112 5,147 986
102,363.60 275,920,321.91 14,126 4,811 921
95,685.22 275,930,558.27 13,205 4,497 861
89,442.33 275,940,126.79 12,343 4,204 805
83,606.56 275,949,071.02 11,538 3,930 752
78,151.38 275,957,431.68 10,785 3,673 703
73,051.99 275,965,246.81 10,081 3,433 657
68,285.21 275,972,552.01 9,423 3,209 615
63,829.36 275,979,380.54 8,808 3,000 574
59,664.17 275,985,763.47 8,234 2,804 537
55,770.70 275,991,729.89 7,696 2,621 502
52,131.22 275,997,306.96 7,194 2,450 469
48,729.18 276,002,520.08 6,725 2,290 439
45,549.10 276,007,393.00 6,286 2,141 410
42,576.50 276,011,947.91 5,876 2,001 383
39,797.86 276,016,205.56 5,492 1,870 358
37,200.51 276,020,185.35 5,134 1,748 335
34,772.65 276,023,905.40 4,799 1,634 313
32,503.21 276,027,382.66 4,485 1,528 293
30,381.85 276,030,632.98 4,193 1,428 273
28,398.93 276,033,671.17 3,919 1,335 256
26,545.41 276,036,511.06 3,663 1,248 239
24,812.84 276,039,165.60 3,424 1,166 223
23,193.34 276,041,646.89 3,201 1,090 209
21,679.53 276,043,966.22 2,992 1,019 195
20,264.52 276,046,134.17 2,797 952 182
18,941.85 276,048,160.63 2,614 890 170
17,705.50 276,050,054.81 2,443 832 159
16,549.85 276,051,825.36 2,284 778 149
15,469.61 276,053,480.35 2,135 727 139
14,459.88 276,055,027.31 1,995 680 130
13,516.06 276,056,473.30 1,865 635 122
12,633.83 276,057,824.90 1,743 594 114
11,809.18 276,059,088.28 1,630 555 106
11,038.36 276,060,269.20 1,523 519 99
10,317.85 276,061,373.04 1,424 485 93
9,644.37 276,062,404.82 1,331 453 87
9,014.84 276,063,369.26 1,244 424 81
Model parameters Value*

Contact Rate variable

Transmissibility 2.0%

Duration of Infectiousness 10

% Needing Hospitalization 13.80%

% Needing ICU Care 4.70%

Mortality rate 0.90%


Definitions

The number of susceptible people an infectious person


contacts.

The probability that a contact between a susceptible person


and an infected person results in infection.

The period of time (in days) an infected person can pass the
infection.

The proportion of infected people who require hospital care.

The proportion of infected people who require ICU care.

The proportion of infected people who die.

*see Details tab for explanations, suggested ranges, and


references
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Model Impact on healthcare system
350,000,000 3,500,000

300,000,000 3,000,000

250,000,000 2,500,000

2,000,000
200,000,000

1,500,000
150,000,000

1,000,000
100,000,000
500,000
50,000,000
-
0 1/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/2020
1/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/2020 10/21/2020 1/21/2021
# Needing Hospitalization
Susceptible Infected Recovered Deaths

Reproduction
Date Number Contact rate Transmissibility Susceptible

1/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,405


1/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.73
1/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.42
1/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,404.05
1/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,403.63
1/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,403.13
1/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,402.54
1/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,401.86
1/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,401.07
1/30/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,400.14
1/31/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,399.06
2/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,397.79
2/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,396.31
2/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,394.58
2/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,392.57
2/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,390.21
2/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,387.46
2/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,384.24
2/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,380.49
2/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,376.10
2/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,370.98
2/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,364.99
2/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,358.00
2/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,349.84
2/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,340.30
2/15/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,329.17
2/16/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,316.16
2/17/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,300.97
2/18/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,283.22
2/19/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,262.49
2/20/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,238.28
2/21/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,210.01
2/22/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,176.98
2/23/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,138.41
2/24/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,093.35
2/25/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,429,040.73
2/26/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,979.26
2/27/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,907.47
2/28/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,823.62
2/29/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,725.68
3/1/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,611.28
3/2/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,477.67
3/3/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,321.61
3/4/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,428,139.33
3/5/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,926.44
3/6/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,677.77
3/7/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,387.33
3/8/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,427,048.10
3/9/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,426,651.87
3/10/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,426,189.08
3/11/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,425,648.55
3/12/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,425,017.20
3/13/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,424,279.80
3/14/2020 2.68 13.4 2.0% 329,423,418.52
3/15/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,422,412.54
3/16/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,422,118.80
3/17/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,421,834.75
3/18/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,421,560.08
3/19/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,421,294.47
3/20/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,421,037.62
3/21/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,420,789.26
3/22/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,420,549.09
3/23/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,420,316.84
3/24/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,420,092.26
3/25/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,875.10
3/26/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,665.10
3/27/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,462.03
3/28/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,265.66
3/29/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,419,075.77
3/30/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,892.15
3/31/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,714.59
4/1/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,542.89
4/2/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,376.85
4/3/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,216.30
4/4/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,418,061.04
4/5/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,910.91
4/6/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,765.73
4/7/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,625.35
4/8/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,489.60
4/9/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,358.32
4/10/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,231.38
4/11/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,417,108.63
4/12/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,989.93
4/13/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,875.15
4/14/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,416,764.16
4/15/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,416,656.82
4/16/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,416,324.70
4/17/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,415,954.58
4/18/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,415,542.13
4/19/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,415,082.50
4/20/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,414,570.28
4/21/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,413,999.48
4/22/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,413,363.39
4/23/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,412,654.53
4/24/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,411,864.59
4/25/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,410,984.28
4/26/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,410,003.29
4/27/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,408,910.08
4/28/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,407,691.83
4/29/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,406,334.24
4/30/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,404,821.36
5/1/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,403,135.43
5/2/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,401,256.68
5/3/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,399,163.04
5/4/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,396,829.94
5/5/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,394,229.99
5/6/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,391,332.69
5/7/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,388,104.04
5/8/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,384,506.14
5/9/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,380,496.78
5/10/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,376,028.92
5/11/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,371,050.15
5/12/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,365,502.07
5/13/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,359,319.60
5/14/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,352,430.24
5/15/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,344,753.21
5/16/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,342,079.87
5/17/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,339,494.82
5/18/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,336,995.14
5/19/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,334,578.01
5/20/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,332,240.71
5/21/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,329,980.60
5/22/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,327,795.13
5/23/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,325,681.84
5/24/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,323,638.35
5/25/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,321,662.35
5/26/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,319,751.61
5/27/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,317,903.98
5/28/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,316,117.37
5/29/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,314,389.77
5/30/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,312,719.23
5/31/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,311,103.86
6/1/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,309,541.85
6/2/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,308,031.43
6/3/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,306,570.89
6/4/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,305,158.60
6/5/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,303,792.95
6/6/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,302,472.41
6/7/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,301,195.48
6/8/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,299,960.73
6/9/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,298,766.77
6/10/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,297,612.24
6/11/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,296,495.85
6/12/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,295,416.33
6/13/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,294,372.46
6/14/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 329,293,363.08
6/15/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,292,387.03
6/16/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,289,366.86
6/17/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,286,001.48
6/18/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,282,251.44
6/19/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,278,072.80
6/20/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,273,416.58
6/21/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,268,228.21
6/22/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,262,446.92
6/23/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,256,004.97
6/24/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,248,826.90
6/25/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,240,828.64
6/26/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,231,916.54
6/27/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,221,986.26
6/28/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,210,921.56
6/29/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,198,592.97
6/30/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,184,856.25
7/1/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,169,550.76
7/2/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,152,497.55
7/3/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,133,497.32
7/4/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,112,328.11
7/5/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,088,742.73
7/6/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,062,465.94
7/7/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,033,191.25
7/8/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 329,000,577.42
7/9/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,964,244.59
7/10/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,923,769.89
7/11/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,878,682.68
7/12/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,828,459.22
7/13/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,772,516.74
7/14/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,710,206.93
7/15/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,640,808.66
7/16/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,616,655.97
7/17/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,593,305.90
7/18/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,570,731.85
7/19/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,548,908.09
7/20/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,527,809.71
7/21/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,507,412.68
7/22/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,487,693.71
7/23/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,468,630.31
7/24/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,450,200.72
7/25/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,432,383.91
7/26/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,415,159.53
7/27/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,398,507.93
7/28/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,382,410.08
7/29/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,366,847.60
7/30/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,351,802.70
7/31/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,337,258.21
8/1/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,323,197.49
8/2/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,309,604.49
8/3/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,296,463.65
8/4/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,283,759.97
8/5/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,271,478.90
8/6/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,259,606.42
8/7/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,248,128.94
8/8/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,237,033.34
8/9/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,226,306.92
8/10/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,215,937.41
8/11/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,205,912.95
8/12/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,196,222.07
8/13/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,186,853.68
8/14/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 328,177,797.04
8/15/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,169,041.81
8/16/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,141,957.48
8/17/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,111,799.41
8/18/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,078,219.60
8/19/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 328,040,830.89
8/20/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,999,202.54
8/21/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,952,855.40
8/22/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,901,256.58
8/23/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,843,813.49
8/24/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,779,867.23
8/25/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,708,685.40
8/26/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,629,454.00
8/27/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,541,268.58
8/28/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,443,124.48
8/29/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,333,906.03
8/30/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,212,374.73
8/31/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 327,077,156.22
9/1/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 326,926,726.00
9/2/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 326,759,393.85
9/3/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 326,573,286.77
9/4/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 326,366,330.37
9/5/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 326,136,228.76
9/6/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 325,880,442.71
9/7/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 325,596,166.09
9/8/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 325,280,300.61
9/9/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 324,929,428.84
9/10/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 324,539,785.56
9/11/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 324,107,227.57
9/12/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 323,627,202.11
9/13/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 323,094,714.26
9/14/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 322,504,293.65
9/15/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 322,299,814.69
9/16/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 322,102,496.73
9/17/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 321,912,093.01
9/18/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 321,728,365.02
9/19/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 321,551,082.19
9/20/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 321,380,021.68
9/21/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 321,214,968.11
9/22/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 321,055,713.35
9/23/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 320,902,056.27
9/24/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 320,753,802.55
9/25/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 320,610,764.44
9/26/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 320,472,760.54
9/27/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 320,339,615.62
9/28/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 320,211,160.42
9/29/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 320,087,231.42
9/30/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 319,967,670.72
10/1/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 319,852,325.79
10/2/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 319,741,049.33
10/3/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 319,633,699.11
10/4/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 319,530,137.75
10/5/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 319,430,232.61
10/6/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 319,333,855.63
10/7/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 319,240,883.15
10/8/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 319,151,195.78
10/9/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 319,064,678.24
10/10/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 318,981,219.28
10/11/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 318,900,711.45
10/12/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 318,823,051.07
10/13/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 318,748,138.02
10/14/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 318,675,875.69
10/15/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 318,606,170.80
10/16/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 318,391,010.90
10/17/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 318,152,913.20
10/18/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 317,889,484.76
10/19/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 317,598,094.88
10/20/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 317,275,854.11
10/21/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 316,919,592.11
10/22/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 316,525,834.35
10/23/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 316,090,777.74
10/24/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 315,610,265.60
10/25/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 315,079,761.92
10/26/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 314,494,325.56
10/27/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 313,848,584.78
10/28/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 313,136,712.57
10/29/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 312,352,403.83
10/30/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 311,488,855.05
10/31/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 310,538,747.86
11/1/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 309,494,237.69
11/2/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 308,346,949.21
11/3/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 307,087,980.49
11/4/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 305,707,917.80
11/5/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 304,196,863.85
11/6/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 302,544,481.66
11/7/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 300,740,057.27
11/8/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 298,772,584.04
11/9/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 296,630,871.46
11/10/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 294,303,681.32
11/11/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 291,779,893.57
11/12/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 289,048,703.61
11/13/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 286,099,851.62
11/14/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 282,923,883.68
11/15/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 279,512,442.00
11/16/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 278,370,610.19
11/17/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 277,282,514.14
11/18/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 276,245,693.16
11/19/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 275,257,791.37
11/20/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 274,316,554.20
11/21/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 273,419,824.82
11/22/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 272,565,540.69
11/23/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 271,751,730.06
11/24/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 270,976,508.50
11/25/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 270,238,075.61
11/26/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 269,534,711.66
11/27/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 268,864,774.36
11/28/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 268,226,695.75
11/29/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 267,618,979.11
11/30/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 267,040,196.01
12/1/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 266,488,983.40
12/2/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 265,964,040.86
12/3/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 265,464,127.89
12/4/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 264,988,061.28
12/5/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 264,534,712.68
12/6/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 264,103,006.10
12/7/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 263,691,915.65
12/8/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 263,300,463.29
12/9/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 262,927,716.67
12/10/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 262,572,787.10
12/11/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 262,234,827.54
12/12/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 261,913,030.75
12/13/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 261,606,627.45
12/14/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 261,314,884.56
12/15/2020 0.67 3.35 2.0% 261,037,103.60
12/16/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 260,772,619.03
12/17/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 259,966,787.81
12/18/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 259,107,440.52
12/19/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 258,191,670.33
12/20/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 257,216,506.94
12/21/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 256,178,930.15
12/22/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 255,075,885.91
12/23/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 253,904,305.24
12/24/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 252,661,125.97
12/25/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 251,343,317.57
12/26/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 249,947,909.12
12/27/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 248,472,020.41
12/28/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 246,912,896.27
12/29/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 245,267,943.82
12/30/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 243,534,772.61
12/31/2020 2.144 10.72 2.0% 241,711,237.22
1/1/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 239,795,481.88
1/2/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 237,785,986.68
1/3/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 235,681,614.39
1/4/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 233,481,657.36
1/5/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 231,185,883.25
1/6/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 228,794,578.71
1/7/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 226,308,589.68
1/8/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 223,729,357.07
1/9/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 221,058,946.57
1/10/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 218,300,071.30
1/11/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 215,456,105.94
1/12/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 212,531,091.45
1/13/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 209,529,729.28
1/14/2021 2.144 10.72 2.0% 206,457,364.39
1/15/2021 0.67 3.35 2.0% 203,319,956.86
1/16/2021 0.67 3.35 2.0% 202,321,233.36
1/17/2021 0.67 3.35 2.0% 201,385,701.48
1/18/2021 0.67 3.35 2.0% 200,509,298.37
1/19/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 199,688,228.46
1/20/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 198,918,945.44
1/21/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 198,198,135.44
1/22/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 197,522,701.41
1/23/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 196,889,748.47
1/24/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 196,296,570.42
1/25/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 195,740,637.01
1/26/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 195,219,582.18
1/27/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 194,731,193.12
1/28/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 194,273,400.05
1/29/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 193,844,266.71
1/30/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 193,441,981.49
1/31/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 193,064,849.22
2/1/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 192,711,283.46
2/2/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 192,379,799.37
2/3/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 192,069,007.02
2/4/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 191,777,605.19
2/5/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 191,504,375.57
2/6/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 191,248,177.36
2/7/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 191,007,942.25
2/8/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 190,782,669.70
2/9/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 190,571,422.54
2/10/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 190,373,322.93
2/11/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 190,187,548.50
2/12/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 190,013,328.78
2/13/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 189,849,941.89
2/14/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 189,696,711.44
2/15/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 189,553,003.56
2/16/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 189,121,709.86
2/17/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 188,681,343.11
2/18/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 188,231,859.71
2/19/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 187,773,224.16
2/20/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 187,305,409.43
2/21/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 186,828,397.33
2/22/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 186,342,178.87
2/23/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 185,846,754.64
2/24/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 185,342,135.14
2/25/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 184,828,341.11
2/26/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 184,305,403.88
2/27/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 183,773,365.60
2/28/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 183,232,279.62
3/1/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 182,682,210.65
3/2/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 182,123,235.06
3/3/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 181,555,441.06
3/4/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 180,978,928.90
3/5/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 180,393,810.98
3/6/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 179,800,212.05
3/7/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 179,198,269.21
3/8/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 178,588,132.03
3/9/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 177,969,962.50
3/10/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 177,343,935.10
3/11/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 176,710,236.63
3/12/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 176,069,066.22
3/13/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 175,420,635.11
3/14/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 174,765,166.50
3/15/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 174,102,895.32
3/16/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 173,893,886.78
3/17/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 173,698,612.94
3/18/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 173,516,165.36
3/19/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 173,345,696.43
3/20/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 173,186,415.16
3/21/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 173,037,583.39
3/22/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 172,898,512.11
3/23/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 172,768,558.19
3/24/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 172,647,121.24
3/25/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 172,533,640.76
3/26/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 172,427,593.40
3/27/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 172,328,490.51
3/28/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 172,235,875.75
3/29/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 172,149,323.01
3/30/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 172,068,434.29
3/31/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,992,837.91
4/1/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,922,186.67
4/2/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,856,156.29
4/3/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,794,443.85
4/4/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,736,766.38
4/5/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,682,859.51
4/6/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,632,476.28
4/7/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,585,385.96
4/8/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,541,372.97
4/9/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,500,235.89
4/10/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,461,786.54
4/11/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,425,849.06
4/12/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,392,259.16
4/13/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,360,863.29
4/14/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 171,331,517.98
4/15/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 171,304,089.16
4/16/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 171,222,048.83
4/17/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 171,139,105.72
4/18/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 171,055,254.78
4/19/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 170,970,491.07
4/20/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 170,884,809.75
4/21/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 170,798,206.12
4/22/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 170,710,675.54
4/23/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 170,622,213.55
4/24/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 170,532,815.78
4/25/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 170,442,477.99
4/26/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 170,351,196.08
4/27/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 170,258,966.08
4/28/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 170,165,784.17
4/29/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 170,071,646.67
4/30/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 169,976,550.04
5/1/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 169,880,490.92
5/2/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 169,783,466.07
5/3/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 169,685,472.45
5/4/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 169,586,507.16
5/5/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 169,486,567.48
5/6/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 169,385,650.86
5/7/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 169,283,754.94
5/8/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 169,180,877.54
5/9/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 169,077,016.65
5/10/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 168,972,170.48
5/11/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 168,866,337.42
5/12/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 168,759,516.06
5/13/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 168,651,705.20
5/14/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 168,542,903.85
5/15/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,433,111.22
5/16/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,398,491.07
5/17/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,366,153.63
5/18/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,335,948.21
5/19/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,307,734.07
5/20/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,281,379.82
5/21/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,256,762.71
5/22/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,233,768.16
5/23/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,212,289.11
5/24/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,192,225.60
5/25/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,173,484.29
5/26/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,155,977.96
5/27/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,139,625.20
5/28/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,124,349.93
5/29/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,110,081.13
5/30/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,096,752.44
5/31/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,084,301.89
6/1/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,072,671.59
6/2/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,061,807.50
6/3/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,051,659.10
6/4/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,042,179.23
6/5/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,033,323.85
6/6/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,025,051.78
6/7/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,017,324.61
6/8/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,010,106.43
6/9/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 168,003,363.69
6/10/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,997,065.08
6/11/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,991,181.34
6/12/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,985,685.12
6/13/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,980,550.92
6/14/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,975,754.87
6/15/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,971,274.69
6/16/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,957,882.37
6/17/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,944,366.32
6/18/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,930,725.52
6/19/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,916,958.95
6/20/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,903,065.59
6/21/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,889,044.41
6/22/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,874,894.35
6/23/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,860,614.39
6/24/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,846,203.47
6/25/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,831,660.53
6/26/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,816,984.51
6/27/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,802,174.35
6/28/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,787,228.98
6/29/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,772,147.31
6/30/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,756,928.26
7/1/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,741,570.74
7/2/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,726,073.67
7/3/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,710,435.92
7/4/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,694,656.42
7/5/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,678,734.03
7/6/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,662,667.64
7/7/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,646,456.14
7/8/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,630,098.40
7/9/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,613,593.27
7/10/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,596,939.64
7/11/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,580,136.34
7/12/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,563,182.25
7/13/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,546,076.20
7/14/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,528,817.03
7/15/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,511,403.59
7/16/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,505,913.31
7/17/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,500,785.18
7/18/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,495,995.31
7/19/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,491,521.38
7/20/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,487,342.55
7/21/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,483,439.34
7/22/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,479,793.58
7/23/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,476,388.29
7/24/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,473,207.60
7/25/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,470,236.69
7/26/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,467,461.73
7/27/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,464,869.80
7/28/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,462,448.81
7/29/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,460,187.50
7/30/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,458,075.33
7/31/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,456,102.47
8/1/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,454,259.72
8/2/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,452,538.50
8/3/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,450,930.81
8/4/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,449,429.14
8/5/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,448,026.52
8/6/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,446,716.40
8/7/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,445,492.68
8/8/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,444,349.67
8/9/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,443,282.04
8/10/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,442,284.82
8/11/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,441,353.37
8/12/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,440,483.35
8/13/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,439,670.70
8/14/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,438,911.66
8/15/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,438,202.67
8/16/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,436,083.52
8/17/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,433,945.39
8/18/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,431,788.11
8/19/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,429,611.51
8/20/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,427,415.41
8/21/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,425,199.65
8/22/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,422,964.05
8/23/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,420,708.44
8/24/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,418,432.65
8/25/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,416,136.50
8/26/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,413,819.80
8/27/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,411,482.39
8/28/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,409,124.07
8/29/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,406,744.66
8/30/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,404,343.99
8/31/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,401,921.86
9/1/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,399,478.09
9/2/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,397,012.48
9/3/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,394,524.85
9/4/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,392,015.00
9/5/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,389,482.74
9/6/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,386,927.88
9/7/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,384,350.21
9/8/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,381,749.54
9/9/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,379,125.67
9/10/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,376,478.39
9/11/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,373,807.51
9/12/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,371,112.81
9/13/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,368,394.09
9/14/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,365,651.14
9/15/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,364,786.32
9/16/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,363,978.56
9/17/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,363,224.08
9/18/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,362,519.38
9/19/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,361,861.15
9/20/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,361,246.35
9/21/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,360,672.10
9/22/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,360,135.74
9/23/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,359,634.75
9/24/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,359,166.81
9/25/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,358,729.74
9/26/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,358,321.50
9/27/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,357,940.19
9/28/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,357,584.04
9/29/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,357,251.37
9/30/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,356,940.65
10/1/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,356,650.43
10/2/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,356,379.35
10/3/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,356,126.15
10/4/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,355,889.66
10/5/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,355,668.76
10/6/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,355,462.44
10/7/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,355,269.72
10/8/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,355,089.72
10/9/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,354,921.59
10/10/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,354,764.56
10/11/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,354,617.88
10/12/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,354,480.87
10/13/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,354,352.91
10/14/2021 1 3.35 2.0% 167,354,233.38
10/15/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,354,121.74
10/16/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,353,788.06
10/17/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,353,451.40
10/18/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,353,111.74
10/19/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,352,769.05
10/20/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,352,423.30
10/21/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,352,074.47
10/22/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,351,722.54
10/23/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,351,367.46
10/24/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,351,009.22
10/25/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,350,647.79
10/26/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,350,283.14
10/27/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,349,915.23
10/28/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,349,544.05
10/29/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,349,169.56
10/30/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,348,791.73
10/31/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,348,410.53
11/1/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,348,025.94
11/2/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,347,637.92
11/3/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,347,246.44
11/4/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,346,851.47
11/5/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,346,452.98
11/6/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,346,050.94
11/7/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,345,645.32
11/8/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,345,236.09
11/9/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,344,823.21
11/10/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,344,406.65
11/11/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,343,986.38
11/12/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,343,562.36
11/13/2021 2 10.72 2.0% 167,343,134.57
11/14/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,342,702.97
11/15/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,342,158.66
11/16/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,341,594.68
11/17/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,341,010.32
11/18/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,340,404.85
11/19/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,339,777.50
11/20/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,339,127.49
11/21/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,338,453.98
11/22/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,337,756.15
11/23/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,337,033.10
11/24/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,336,283.92
11/25/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,335,507.68
11/26/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,334,703.40
11/27/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,333,870.06
11/28/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,333,006.61
11/29/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,332,111.97
11/30/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,331,185.02
12/1/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,330,224.58
12/2/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,329,229.44
12/3/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,328,198.36
12/4/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,327,130.03
12/5/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,326,023.12
12/6/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,324,876.23
12/7/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,323,687.92
12/8/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,322,456.68
12/9/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,321,180.99
12/10/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,319,859.22
12/11/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,318,489.72
12/12/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,317,070.77
12/13/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,315,600.58
12/14/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,314,077.30
12/15/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,312,499.02
12/16/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,310,863.76
12/17/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,309,169.46
12/18/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,307,414.00
12/19/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,305,595.16
12/20/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,303,710.67
12/21/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,301,758.15
12/22/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,299,735.16
12/23/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,297,639.15
12/24/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,295,467.51
12/25/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,293,217.49
12/26/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,290,886.27
12/27/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,288,470.94
12/28/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,285,968.46
12/29/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,283,375.70
12/30/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,280,689.40
12/31/2021 3 13.4 2.0% 167,277,906.20
1/1/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,275,022.61
1/2/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,272,035.01
1/3/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,268,939.67
1/4/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,265,732.70
1/5/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,262,410.10
1/6/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,258,967.70
1/7/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,255,401.20
1/8/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,251,706.14
1/9/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,247,877.89
1/10/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,243,911.67
1/11/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,239,802.52
1/12/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,235,545.31
1/13/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,231,134.72
1/14/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,226,565.25
1/15/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,221,831.19
1/16/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,216,926.64
1/17/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,211,845.48
1/18/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,206,581.37
1/19/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,201,127.77
1/20/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,195,477.87
1/21/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,189,624.64
1/22/2022 3 13.4 2.0% 167,183,560.80
Impact on healthcare system and mortality Instructions
00 Change the model in
two ways:
00
1. Change the values in the
00
GOLD cells at right to modify
the entire model.
00
2. Change the daily Contact
00
Rate values in BLUE below to
simulate the effect of
00
beginning and ending
community actions (e.g. school
00 closure).
-
/21/2020 4/21/2020 7/21/2020 10/21/2020 1/21/2021

# Needing Hospitalization # Needing ICU care


Deaths

# Needing # Needing ICU


Infected Recovered Hospitalization care Deaths

1 - 0 0 0
1.17 0.10 0 0 0
1.36 0.22 0 0 0
1.59 0.35 0 0 0
1.86 0.51 0 0 0
2.17 0.70 0 0 0
2.54 0.92 0 0 0
2.97 1.17 0 0 0
3.46 1.47 0 0 0
4.05 1.81 1 0 0
4.73 2.22 1 0 0
5.52 2.69 1 0 0
6.45 3.24 1 0 0
7.53 3.89 1 0 0
8.79 4.64 1 0 0
10.27 5.52 1 0 0
12.00 6.55 2 1 0
14.01 7.75 2 1 0
16.37 9.15 2 1 0
19.12 10.78 3 1 0
22.33 12.70 3 1 0
26.08 14.93 4 1 0
30.46 17.54 4 1 0
35.58 20.58 5 2 0
41.56 24.14 6 2 0
48.54 28.30 7 2 0
56.69 33.15 8 3 1
66.22 38.82 9 3 1
77.34 45.44 11 4 1
90.33 53.17 12 4 1
105.51 62.21 15 5 1
123.23 72.76 17 6 1
143.94 85.08 20 7 1
168.12 99.47 23 8 2
196.36 116.29 27 9 2
229.35 135.92 32 11 2
267.88 158.86 37 13 2
312.88 185.65 43 15 3
365.45 216.93 50 17 3
426.84 253.48 59 20 4
498.55 296.16 69 23 4
582.31 346.02 80 27 5
680.14 404.25 94 32 6
794.40 472.26 110 37 7
927.86 551.70 128 44 8
1,083.74 644.49 150 51 10
1,265.81 752.86 175 59 11
1,478.46 879.44 204 69 13
1,726.84 1,027.29 238 81 16
2,016.94 1,199.97 278 95 18
2,355.78 1,401.67 325 111 21
2,751.55 1,637.25 380 129 25
3,213.80 1,912.40 444 151 29
3,753.70 2,233.78 518 176 34
4,384.31 2,609.15 605 206 39
4,239.62 3,047.58 585 199 38
4,099.70 3,471.54 566 193 37
3,964.41 3,881.52 547 186 36
3,833.58 4,277.96 529 180 35
3,707.06 4,661.31 512 174 33
3,584.72 5,032.02 495 168 32
3,466.42 5,390.49 478 163 31
3,352.02 5,737.13 463 158 30
3,241.40 6,072.34 447 152 29
3,134.43 6,396.48 433 147 28
3,030.99 6,709.92 418 142 27
2,930.96 7,013.02 404 138 26
2,834.23 7,306.11 391 133 26
2,740.69 7,589.54 378 129 25
2,650.25 7,863.61 366 125 24
2,562.78 8,128.63 354 120 23
2,478.20 8,384.91 342 116 22
2,396.42 8,632.73 331 113 22
2,317.33 8,872.37 320 109 21
2,240.85 9,104.10 309 105 20
2,166.90 9,328.19 299 102 20
2,095.39 9,544.88 289 98 19
2,026.23 9,754.42 280 95 18
1,959.36 9,957.04 270 92 18
1,894.70 10,152.98 261 89 17
1,832.17 10,342.45 253 86 16
1,771.70 10,525.66 244 83 16
1,713.23 10,702.83 236 81 15
1,656.69 10,874.16 229 78 15
1,602.02 11,039.83 221 75 14
1,549.15 11,200.03 214 73 14
1,726.36 11,354.94 238 81 16
1,923.84 11,527.58 265 90 17
2,143.91 11,719.96 296 101 19
2,389.15 11,934.35 330 112 22
2,662.45 12,173.27 367 125 24
2,967.01 12,439.51 409 139 27
3,306.40 12,736.21 456 155 30
3,684.62 13,066.85 508 173 33
4,106.10 13,435.32 567 193 37
4,575.79 13,845.93 631 215 41
5,099.21 14,303.50 704 240 46
5,682.49 14,813.43 784 267 51
6,332.49 15,381.67 874 298 57
7,056.84 16,014.92 974 332 64
7,864.03 16,720.61 1,085 370 71
8,763.55 17,507.01 1,209 412 79
9,765.96 18,383.37 1,348 459 88
10,883.00 19,359.96 1,502 512 98
12,127.80 20,448.26 1,674 570 109
13,514.97 21,661.04 1,865 635 122
15,060.77 23,012.54 2,078 708 136
16,783.35 24,518.62 2,316 789 151
18,702.91 26,196.95 2,581 879 168
20,841.98 28,067.24 2,876 980 188
23,225.64 30,151.44 3,205 1,092 209
25,881.84 32,474.00 3,572 1,216 233
28,841.74 35,062.19 3,980 1,356 260
32,140.04 37,946.36 4,435 1,511 289
35,815.39 41,160.37 4,943 1,683 322
39,910.88 44,741.91 5,508 1,876 359
38,593.13 48,732.99 5,326 1,814 347
37,318.88 52,592.31 5,150 1,754 336
36,086.67 56,324.19 4,980 1,696 325
34,895.13 59,932.86 4,816 1,640 314
33,742.92 63,422.37 4,657 1,586 304
32,628.74 66,796.67 4,503 1,534 294
31,551.33 70,059.54 4,354 1,483 284
30,509.48 73,214.67 4,210 1,434 275
29,502.03 76,265.62 4,071 1,387 266
28,527.82 79,215.82 3,937 1,341 257
27,585.78 82,068.61 3,807 1,297 248
26,674.84 84,827.18 3,681 1,254 240
25,793.96 87,494.67 3,560 1,212 232
24,942.17 90,074.06 3,442 1,172 224
24,118.49 92,568.28 3,328 1,134 217
23,322.01 94,980.13 3,218 1,096 210
22,551.82 97,312.33 3,112 1,060 203
21,807.06 99,567.51 3,009 1,025 196
21,086.89 101,748.22 2,910 991 190
20,390.50 103,856.91 2,814 958 184
19,717.09 105,895.96 2,721 927 177
19,065.93 107,867.67 2,631 896 172
18,436.26 109,774.26 2,544 867 166
17,827.38 111,617.88 2,460 838 160
17,238.61 113,400.62 2,379 810 155
16,669.28 115,124.48 2,300 783 150
16,118.74 116,791.41 2,224 758 145
15,586.39 118,403.29 2,151 733 140
15,071.61 119,961.92 2,080 708 136
14,573.84 121,469.09 2,011 685 131
14,092.50 122,926.47 1,945 662 127
15,703.42 124,335.72 2,167 738 141
17,498.46 125,906.06 2,415 822 157
19,498.65 127,655.91 2,691 916 175
21,727.43 129,605.77 2,998 1,021 196
24,210.91 131,778.52 3,341 1,138 218
26,978.18 134,199.61 3,723 1,268 243
30,061.65 136,897.42 4,149 1,413 271
33,497.44 139,903.59 4,623 1,574 301
37,325.77 143,253.33 5,151 1,754 336
41,591.45 146,985.91 5,740 1,955 374
46,344.40 151,145.05 6,396 2,178 417
51,640.25 155,779.50 7,126 2,427 465
57,540.92 160,943.52 7,941 2,704 518
64,115.42 166,697.61 8,848 3,013 577
71,440.59 173,109.15 9,859 3,358 643
79,602.03 180,253.21 10,985 3,741 716
88,695.03 188,213.42 12,240 4,169 798
98,825.76 197,082.92 13,638 4,645 889
110,112.40 206,965.50 15,196 5,175 991
122,686.53 217,976.74 16,931 5,766 1,104
136,694.67 230,245.39 18,864 6,425 1,230
152,299.90 243,914.86 21,017 7,158 1,371
169,683.73 259,144.85 23,416 7,975 1,527
189,048.20 276,113.22 26,089 8,885 1,701
210,618.08 295,018.04 29,065 9,899 1,896
234,643.47 316,079.85 32,381 11,028 2,112
261,402.59 339,544.19 36,074 12,286 2,353
291,204.81 365,684.45 40,186 13,687 2,621
324,394.14 394,804.93 44,766 15,247 2,920
361,352.99 427,244.35 49,867 16,984 3,252
349,370.39 463,379.65 48,213 16,420 3,144
337,783.41 498,316.68 46,614 15,876 3,040
326,579.12 532,095.03 45,068 15,349 2,939
315,744.98 564,752.94 43,573 14,840 2,842
305,268.85 596,327.44 42,127 14,348 2,747
295,139.00 626,854.32 40,729 13,872 2,656
285,344.07 656,368.22 39,377 13,411 2,568
275,873.07 684,902.63 38,070 12,966 2,483
266,715.35 712,489.93 36,807 12,536 2,400
257,860.62 739,161.47 35,585 12,119 2,321
249,298.94 764,947.53 34,403 11,717 2,244
241,020.65 789,877.42 33,261 11,328 2,169
233,016.43 813,979.49 32,156 10,952 2,097
225,277.27 837,281.13 31,088 10,588 2,027
217,794.44 859,808.86 30,056 10,236 1,960
210,559.49 881,588.30 29,057 9,896 1,895
203,564.25 902,644.25 28,092 9,568 1,832
196,800.83 923,000.68 27,159 9,250 1,771
190,261.59 942,680.76 26,256 8,942 1,712
183,939.11 961,706.92 25,384 8,645 1,655
177,826.26 980,100.83 24,540 8,358 1,600
171,916.12 997,883.46 23,724 8,080 1,547
166,201.99 1,015,075.07 22,936 7,811 1,496
160,677.39 1,031,695.27 22,173 7,552 1,446
155,336.07 1,047,763.01 21,436 7,301 1,398
150,171.97 1,063,296.61 20,724 7,058 1,352
145,179.23 1,078,313.81 20,035 6,823 1,307
140,352.19 1,092,831.73 19,369 6,597 1,263
135,685.37 1,106,866.95 18,725 6,377 1,221
131,173.46 1,120,435.49 18,102 6,165 1,181
126,811.35 1,133,552.84 17,500 5,960 1,141
141,214.55 1,146,233.97 19,488 6,637 1,271
157,251.17 1,160,355.43 21,701 7,391 1,415
175,105.85 1,176,080.54 24,165 8,230 1,576
194,983.98 1,193,591.13 26,908 9,164 1,755
217,113.94 1,213,089.53 29,962 10,204 1,954
241,749.68 1,234,800.92 33,361 11,362 2,176
269,173.53 1,258,975.89 37,146 12,651 2,423
299,699.27 1,285,893.24 41,358 14,086 2,697
333,675.60 1,315,863.17 46,047 15,683 3,003
371,489.87 1,349,230.73 51,266 17,460 3,343
413,572.28 1,386,379.72 57,073 19,438 3,722
460,400.47 1,427,736.94 63,535 21,639 4,144
512,504.53 1,473,776.99 70,726 24,088 4,613
570,472.52 1,525,027.44 78,725 26,812 5,134
634,956.57 1,582,074.70 87,624 29,843 5,715
706,679.43 1,645,570.35 97,522 33,214 6,360
786,441.70 1,716,238.30 108,529 36,963 7,078
875,129.68 1,794,882.47 120,768 41,131 7,876
973,723.80 1,882,395.43 134,374 45,765 8,764
1,083,307.82 1,979,767.81 149,496 50,915 9,750
1,205,078.64 2,088,098.60 166,301 56,639 10,846
1,340,356.83 2,208,606.46 184,969 62,997 12,063
1,490,597.77 2,342,642.14 205,702 70,058 13,415
1,657,403.47 2,491,701.92 228,722 77,898 14,917
1,842,534.89 2,657,442.27 254,270 86,599 16,583
2,047,924.68 2,841,695.76 282,614 96,252 18,431
2,275,690.21 3,046,488.22 314,045 106,957 20,481
2,528,146.65 3,274,057.24 348,884 118,823 22,753
2,807,819.83 3,526,871.91 387,479 131,968 25,270
3,117,458.46 3,807,653.89 430,209 146,521 28,057
3,010,191.57 4,119,399.74 415,406 141,479 27,092
2,906,490.38 4,420,418.90 401,096 136,605 26,158
2,806,245.06 4,711,067.93 387,262 131,894 25,256
2,709,348.54 4,991,692.44 373,890 127,339 24,384
2,615,696.51 5,262,627.29 360,966 122,938 23,541
2,525,187.38 5,524,196.94 348,476 118,684 22,727
2,437,722.21 5,776,715.68 336,406 114,573 21,939
2,353,204.75 6,020,487.90 324,742 110,601 21,179
2,271,541.35 6,255,808.38 313,473 106,762 20,444
2,192,640.93 6,482,962.51 302,584 103,054 19,734
2,116,414.95 6,702,226.61 292,065 99,472 19,048
2,042,777.36 6,913,868.10 281,903 96,011 18,385
1,971,644.54 7,118,145.84 272,087 92,667 17,745
1,902,935.29 7,315,310.29 262,605 89,438 17,126
1,836,570.76 7,505,603.82 253,447 86,319 16,529
1,772,474.38 7,689,260.90 244,601 83,306 15,952
1,710,571.88 7,866,508.33 236,059 80,397 15,395
1,650,791.14 8,037,565.52 227,809 77,587 14,857
1,593,062.26 8,202,644.64 219,843 74,874 14,338
1,537,317.39 8,361,950.86 212,150 72,254 13,836
1,483,490.79 8,515,682.60 204,722 69,724 13,351
1,431,518.69 8,664,031.68 197,550 67,281 12,884
1,381,339.30 8,807,183.55 190,625 64,923 12,432
1,332,892.75 8,945,317.48 183,939 62,646 11,996
1,286,121.00 9,078,606.75 177,485 60,448 11,575
1,240,967.87 9,207,218.85 171,254 58,325 11,169
1,197,378.91 9,331,315.64 165,238 56,277 10,776
1,155,301.40 9,451,053.53 159,432 54,299 10,398
1,114,684.31 9,566,583.67 153,826 52,390 10,032
1,075,478.21 9,678,052.10 148,416 50,547 9,679
1,037,635.28 9,785,599.92 143,194 48,769 9,339
1,149,031.65 9,889,363.45 158,566 54,004 10,341
1,272,226.19 10,004,266.61 175,567 59,795 11,450
1,408,432.00 10,131,489.23 194,364 66,196 12,676
1,558,978.69 10,272,332.43 215,139 73,272 14,031
1,725,321.59 10,428,230.30 238,094 81,090 15,528
1,909,051.42 10,600,762.46 263,449 89,725 17,181
2,111,904.05 10,791,667.60 291,443 99,259 19,007
2,335,770.25 11,002,858.01 322,336 109,781 21,022
2,582,705.36 11,236,435.03 356,413 121,387 23,244
2,854,938.51 11,494,705.57 393,982 134,182 25,694
3,154,881.02 11,780,199.42 435,374 148,279 28,394
3,485,133.70 12,095,687.52 480,948 163,801 31,366
3,848,492.54 12,444,200.89 531,092 180,879 34,636
4,247,952.02 12,829,050.15 586,217 199,654 38,232
4,686,705.60 13,253,845.35 646,765 220,275 42,180
5,168,142.23 13,722,515.91 713,204 242,903 46,513
5,695,838.18 14,239,330.13 786,026 267,704 51,263
6,273,542.84 14,808,913.95 865,749 294,857 56,462
6,905,157.28 15,436,268.23 952,912 324,542 62,146
7,594,704.23 16,126,783.96 1,048,069 356,951 68,352
8,346,287.77 16,886,254.39 1,151,788 392,276 75,117
9,164,041.18 17,720,883.16 1,264,638 430,710 82,476
10,052,061.45 18,637,287.28 1,387,184 472,447 90,469
11,014,328.53 19,642,493.42 1,519,977 517,673 99,129
12,054,608.26 20,743,926.28 1,663,536 566,567 108,491
13,176,337.58 21,949,387.10 1,818,335 619,288 118,587
14,382,491.56 23,267,020.86 1,984,784 675,977 129,442
15,675,432.38 24,705,270.02 2,163,210 736,745 141,079
17,056,741.12 26,272,813.26 2,353,830 801,667 153,511
18,527,034.95 27,978,487.37 2,556,731 870,771 166,743
20,085,773.13 29,831,190.86 2,771,837 944,031 180,772
19,219,027.63 31,839,768.18 2,652,226 903,294 172,971
18,385,220.92 33,761,670.94 2,537,160 864,105 165,467
17,583,519.81 35,600,193.03 2,426,526 826,425 158,252
16,813,069.61 37,358,545.01 2,320,204 790,214 151,318
16,072,999.83 39,039,851.97 2,218,074 755,431 144,657
15,362,429.22 40,647,151.96 2,120,015 722,034 138,262
14,680,470.43 42,183,394.88 2,025,905 689,982 132,124
14,026,234.02 43,651,441.92 1,935,620 659,233 126,236
13,398,832.17 45,054,065.32 1,849,039 629,745 120,589
12,797,381.84 46,393,948.54 1,766,039 601,477 115,176
12,221,007.62 47,673,686.73 1,686,499 574,387 109,989
11,668,844.15 48,895,787.49 1,610,300 548,436 105,020
11,140,038.35 50,062,671.90 1,537,325 523,582 100,260
10,633,751.15 51,176,675.74 1,467,458 499,786 95,704
10,149,159.14 52,240,050.85 1,400,584 477,010 91,342
9,685,455.83 53,254,966.77 1,336,593 455,216 87,169
9,241,852.79 54,223,512.35 1,275,376 434,367 83,177
8,817,580.48 55,147,697.63 1,216,826 414,426 79,358
8,411,889.04 56,029,455.68 1,160,841 395,359 75,707
8,024,048.74 56,870,644.58 1,107,319 377,130 72,216
7,653,350.45 57,673,049.45 1,056,162 359,707 68,880
7,299,105.85 58,438,384.50 1,007,277 343,058 65,692
6,960,647.63 59,168,295.08 960,569 327,150 62,646
6,637,329.48 59,864,359.85 915,951 311,954 59,736
6,328,526.11 60,528,092.80 873,337 297,441 56,957
6,033,633.05 61,160,945.41 832,641 283,581 54,303
5,752,066.54 61,764,308.71 793,785 270,347 51,769
5,483,263.19 62,339,515.36 756,690 257,713 49,349
5,226,679.76 62,887,841.68 721,282 245,654 47,040
4,981,792.74 63,410,509.66 687,487 234,144 44,836
4,748,098.04 63,908,688.93 655,238 223,161 42,733
5,079,119.45 64,383,498.74 700,918 238,719 45,712
5,430,554.80 64,891,410.68 749,417 255,236 48,875
5,803,269.51 65,434,466.16 800,851 272,754 52,229
6,198,105.95 66,014,793.11 855,339 291,311 55,783
6,615,872.15 66,634,603.71 912,990 310,946 59,543
7,057,329.17 67,296,190.92 973,911 331,694 63,516
7,523,176.92 68,001,923.84 1,038,198 353,589 67,709
8,014,038.50 68,754,241.53 1,105,937 376,660 72,126
8,530,443.05 69,555,645.38 1,177,201 400,931 76,774
9,072,807.20 70,408,689.69 1,252,047 426,422 81,655
9,641,415.18 71,315,970.41 1,330,515 453,147 86,773
10,236,397.80 72,280,111.92 1,412,623 481,111 92,128
10,857,710.47 73,303,751.71 1,498,364 510,312 97,719
11,505,110.63 74,389,522.75 1,587,705 540,740 103,546
12,178,134.97 75,540,033.82 1,680,583 572,372 109,603
12,876,076.81 76,757,847.31 1,776,899 605,176 115,885
13,597,964.33 78,045,454.99 1,876,519 639,104 122,382
14,342,540.18 79,405,251.43 1,979,271 674,099 129,083
15,108,243.20 80,839,505.44 2,084,938 710,087 135,974
15,893,192.99 82,350,329.76 2,193,261 746,980 143,039
16,695,178.22 83,939,649.06 2,303,935 784,673 150,257
17,511,649.43 85,609,166.88 2,416,608 823,048 157,605
18,339,717.10 87,360,331.83 2,530,881 861,967 165,057
19,176,155.89 89,194,303.54 2,646,310 901,279 172,585
20,017,415.57 91,111,919.13 2,762,403 940,819 180,157
20,859,639.37 93,113,660.68 2,878,630 980,403 187,737
21,698,689.92 95,199,624.62 2,994,419 1,019,838 195,288
22,530,183.11 97,369,493.61 3,109,165 1,058,919 202,772
23,349,529.68 99,622,511.93 3,222,235 1,097,428 210,146
24,151,984.25 101,957,464.89 3,332,974 1,135,143 217,368
22,735,509.32 104,372,663.32 3,137,500 1,068,569 204,620
21,397,490.27 106,646,214.25 2,952,854 1,005,682 192,577
20,134,144.35 108,785,963.28 2,778,512 946,305 181,207
18,941,799.83 110,799,377.71 2,613,968 890,265 170,476
17,816,902.87 112,693,557.70 2,458,733 837,394 160,352
16,756,022.58 114,475,247.98 2,312,331 787,533 150,804
15,755,854.36 116,150,850.24 2,174,308 740,525 141,803
14,813,221.85 117,726,435.67 2,044,225 696,221 133,319
13,925,077.72 119,207,757.86 1,921,661 654,479 125,326
13,088,503.36 120,600,265.63 1,806,213 615,160 117,797
12,300,707.86 121,909,115.97 1,697,498 578,133 110,706
11,559,026.13 123,139,186.75 1,595,146 543,274 104,031
10,860,916.58 124,295,089.37 1,498,806 510,463 97,748
10,203,958.27 125,381,181.02 1,408,146 479,586 91,836
9,585,847.66 126,401,576.85 1,322,847 450,535 86,273
9,004,395.16 127,360,161.62 1,242,607 423,207 81,040
8,457,521.40 128,260,601.13 1,167,138 397,504 76,118
7,943,253.35 129,106,353.27 1,096,169 373,333 71,489
7,459,720.37 129,900,678.61 1,029,441 350,607 67,137
7,005,150.17 130,646,650.65 966,711 329,242 63,046
6,577,864.77 131,347,165.66 907,745 309,160 59,201
6,176,276.50 132,004,952.14 852,326 290,285 55,586
5,798,883.96 132,622,579.79 800,246 272,548 52,190
5,444,268.12 133,202,468.19 751,309 255,881 48,998
5,111,088.46 133,746,895.00 705,330 240,221 46,000
4,798,079.22 134,258,003.84 662,135 225,510 43,183
4,504,045.73 134,737,811.77 621,558 211,690 40,536
4,227,860.88 135,188,216.34 583,445 198,709 38,051
3,968,461.68 135,611,002.43 547,648 186,518 35,716
3,724,845.97 136,007,848.59 514,029 175,068 33,524
3,496,069.24 136,380,333.19 482,458 164,315 31,465
3,577,756.02 136,729,940.12 493,730 168,155 32,200
3,660,347.18 137,087,715.72 505,128 172,036 32,943
3,743,795.86 137,453,750.44 516,644 175,958 33,694
3,828,051.82 137,828,130.02 528,271 179,918 34,452
3,913,061.37 138,210,935.20 540,002 183,914 35,218
3,998,767.33 138,602,241.34 551,830 187,942 35,989
4,085,109.06 139,002,118.07 563,745 192,000 36,766
4,172,022.38 139,410,628.98 575,739 196,085 37,548
4,259,439.65 139,827,831.22 587,803 200,194 38,335
4,347,289.71 140,253,775.18 599,926 204,323 39,126
4,435,497.97 140,688,504.15 612,099 208,468 39,919
4,523,986.45 141,132,053.95 624,310 212,627 40,716
4,612,673.78 141,584,452.59 636,549 216,796 41,514
4,701,475.37 142,045,719.97 648,804 220,969 42,313
4,790,303.43 142,515,867.51 661,062 225,144 43,113
4,879,067.08 142,994,897.85 673,311 229,316 43,912
4,967,672.54 143,482,804.56 685,539 233,481 44,709
5,056,023.20 143,979,571.82 697,731 237,633 45,504
5,144,019.81 144,485,174.14 709,875 241,769 46,296
5,231,560.67 144,999,576.12 721,955 245,883 47,084
5,318,541.79 145,522,732.18 733,959 249,971 47,867
5,404,857.13 146,054,586.36 745,870 254,028 48,644
5,490,398.83 146,595,072.08 757,675 258,049 49,414
5,575,057.41 147,144,111.96 769,358 262,028 50,176
5,658,722.08 147,701,617.70 780,904 265,960 50,928
5,741,280.98 148,267,489.91 792,297 269,840 51,672
5,822,621.50 148,841,618.01 803,522 273,663 52,404
5,902,630.52 149,423,880.15 814,563 277,424 53,124
5,521,376.01 150,014,143.21 761,950 259,505 49,692
5,164,512.26 150,566,280.81 712,703 242,732 46,481
4,830,508.61 151,082,732.03 666,610 227,034 43,475
4,517,926.68 151,565,782.89 623,474 212,343 40,661
4,225,415.27 152,017,575.56 583,107 198,595 38,029
3,951,705.52 152,440,117.09 545,335 185,730 35,565
3,695,606.25 152,835,287.64 509,994 173,693 33,260
3,455,999.55 153,204,848.27 476,928 162,432 31,104
3,231,836.53 153,550,448.22 445,993 151,896 29,087
3,022,133.36 153,873,631.87 417,054 142,040 27,199
2,825,967.38 154,175,845.21 389,983 132,820 25,434
2,642,473.54 154,458,441.95 364,661 124,196 23,782
2,470,840.94 154,722,689.30 340,976 116,130 22,238
2,310,309.59 154,969,773.40 318,823 108,585 20,793
2,160,167.35 155,200,804.36 298,103 101,528 19,442
2,019,747.00 155,416,821.09 278,725 94,928 18,178
1,888,423.54 155,618,795.79 260,602 88,756 16,996
1,765,611.56 155,807,638.15 243,654 82,984 15,891
1,650,762.84 155,984,199.30 227,805 77,586 14,857
1,543,364.03 156,149,275.59 212,984 72,538 13,890
1,442,934.50 156,303,611.99 199,125 67,818 12,986
1,349,024.28 156,447,905.44 186,165 63,404 12,141
1,261,212.17 156,582,807.87 174,047 59,277 11,351
1,179,103.95 156,708,929.09 162,716 55,418 10,612
1,102,330.63 156,826,839.48 152,122 51,810 9,921
1,030,546.92 156,937,072.54 142,215 48,436 9,275
963,429.70 157,040,127.24 132,953 45,281 8,671
900,676.64 157,136,470.21 124,293 42,332 8,106
842,004.84 157,226,537.87 116,197 39,574 7,578
787,149.67 157,310,738.35 108,627 36,996 7,084
735,863.51 157,389,453.32 101,549 34,586 6,623
744,317.50 157,463,039.67 102,716 34,983 6,699
752,828.86 157,537,471.42 103,890 35,383 6,775
761,396.92 157,612,754.31 105,073 35,786 6,853
770,020.93 157,688,894.00 106,263 36,191 6,930
778,700.15 157,765,896.09 107,461 36,599 7,008
787,433.78 157,843,766.11 108,666 37,009 7,087
796,220.97 157,922,509.49 109,878 37,422 7,166
805,060.86 158,002,131.58 111,098 37,838 7,246
813,952.55 158,082,637.67 112,325 38,256 7,326
822,895.09 158,164,032.92 113,560 38,676 7,406
831,887.49 158,246,322.43 114,800 39,099 7,487
840,928.74 158,329,511.18 116,048 39,524 7,568
850,017.78 158,413,604.06 117,302 39,951 7,650
859,153.50 158,498,605.83 118,563 40,380 7,732
868,334.77 158,584,521.18 119,830 40,812 7,815
877,560.42 158,671,354.66 121,103 41,245 7,898
886,829.22 158,759,110.70 122,382 41,681 7,981
896,139.92 158,847,793.63 123,667 42,119 8,065
905,491.22 158,937,407.62 124,958 42,558 8,149
914,881.78 159,027,956.74 126,254 42,999 8,234
924,310.22 159,119,444.92 127,555 43,443 8,319
933,775.12 159,211,875.94 128,861 43,887 8,404
943,275.01 159,305,253.45 130,172 44,334 8,489
952,808.39 159,399,580.95 131,488 44,782 8,575
962,373.72 159,494,861.79 132,808 45,232 8,661
971,969.41 159,591,099.16 134,132 45,683 8,748
981,593.83 159,688,296.11 135,460 46,135 8,834
991,245.31 159,786,455.49 136,792 46,589 8,921
1,000,922.13 159,885,580.02 138,127 47,043 9,008
1,010,622.55 159,985,672.23 139,466 47,499 9,096
944,180.44 160,086,734.49 130,297 44,376 8,498
882,099.84 160,181,152.53 121,730 41,459 7,939
824,095.28 160,269,362.52 113,725 38,732 7,417
769,899.88 160,351,772.04 106,246 36,185 6,929
719,264.15 160,428,762.03 99,258 33,805 6,473
671,954.84 160,500,688.45 92,730 31,582 6,048
627,753.91 160,567,883.93 86,630 29,504 5,650
586,457.57 160,630,659.32 80,931 27,564 5,278
547,875.32 160,689,305.08 75,607 25,750 4,931
511,829.10 160,744,092.61 70,632 24,056 4,606
478,152.51 160,795,275.52 65,985 22,473 4,303
446,690.03 160,843,090.77 61,643 20,994 4,020
417,296.29 160,887,759.78 57,587 19,613 3,756
389,835.47 160,929,489.40 53,797 18,322 3,509
364,180.61 160,968,472.95 50,257 17,116 3,278
340,213.10 161,004,891.01 46,949 15,990 3,062
317,822.08 161,038,912.32 43,859 14,938 2,860
296,903.97 161,070,694.53 40,973 13,954 2,672
277,361.97 161,100,384.93 38,276 13,036 2,496
259,105.64 161,128,121.13 35,757 12,178 2,332
242,050.46 161,154,031.69 33,403 11,376 2,178
226,117.48 161,178,236.74 31,204 10,628 2,035
211,232.90 161,200,848.48 29,150 9,928 1,901
197,327.80 161,221,971.77 27,231 9,274 1,776
184,337.76 161,241,704.55 25,439 8,664 1,659
172,202.59 161,260,138.33 23,764 8,094 1,550
160,866.08 161,277,358.59 22,200 7,561 1,448
150,275.68 161,293,445.20 20,738 7,063 1,352
140,382.32 161,308,472.76 19,373 6,598 1,263
131,140.14 161,322,511.00 18,097 6,164 1,180
122,506.30 161,335,625.01 16,906 5,758 1,103
123,647.99 161,347,875.64 17,063 5,811 1,113
124,799.24 161,360,240.44 17,222 5,866 1,123
125,960.12 161,372,720.36 17,382 5,920 1,134
127,130.67 161,385,316.37 17,544 5,975 1,144
128,310.96 161,398,029.44 17,707 6,031 1,155
129,501.06 161,410,860.54 17,871 6,087 1,166
130,701.00 161,423,810.64 18,037 6,143 1,176
131,910.87 161,436,880.74 18,204 6,200 1,187
133,130.70 161,450,071.83 18,372 6,257 1,198
134,360.57 161,463,384.90 18,542 6,315 1,209
135,600.53 161,476,820.96 18,713 6,373 1,220
136,850.64 161,490,381.01 18,885 6,432 1,232
138,110.95 161,504,066.08 19,059 6,491 1,243
139,381.52 161,517,877.17 19,235 6,551 1,254
140,662.42 161,531,815.32 19,411 6,611 1,266
141,953.69 161,545,881.56 19,590 6,672 1,278
143,255.40 161,560,076.93 19,769 6,733 1,289
144,567.60 161,574,402.47 19,950 6,795 1,301
145,890.35 161,588,859.23 20,133 6,857 1,313
147,223.70 161,603,448.27 20,317 6,920 1,325
148,567.72 161,618,170.64 20,502 6,983 1,337
149,922.45 161,633,027.41 20,689 7,046 1,349
151,287.95 161,648,019.66 20,878 7,111 1,362
152,664.28 161,663,148.45 21,068 7,175 1,374
154,051.48 161,678,414.88 21,259 7,240 1,386
155,449.63 161,693,820.03 21,452 7,306 1,399
156,858.76 161,709,364.99 21,647 7,372 1,412
158,278.94 161,725,050.87 21,842 7,439 1,425
159,710.21 161,740,878.76 22,040 7,506 1,437
161,152.63 161,756,849.78 22,239 7,574 1,450
150,527.65 161,772,965.04 20,773 7,075 1,355
140,603.01 161,788,017.81 19,403 6,608 1,265
131,332.58 161,802,078.11 18,124 6,173 1,182
122,673.25 161,815,211.37 16,929 5,766 1,104
114,584.76 161,827,478.69 15,813 5,385 1,031
107,029.49 161,838,937.17 14,770 5,030 963
99,972.30 161,849,640.12 13,796 4,699 900
93,380.36 161,859,637.35 12,886 4,389 840
87,223.02 161,868,975.38 12,037 4,099 785
81,471.62 161,877,697.69 11,243 3,829 733
76,099.42 161,885,844.85 10,502 3,577 685
71,081.41 161,893,454.79 9,809 3,341 640
66,394.26 161,900,562.93 9,162 3,121 598
62,016.14 161,907,202.36 8,558 2,915 558
57,926.70 161,913,403.97 7,994 2,723 521
54,106.89 161,919,196.64 7,467 2,543 487
50,538.95 161,924,607.33 6,974 2,375 455
47,206.27 161,929,661.22 6,514 2,219 425
44,093.34 161,934,381.85 6,085 2,072 397
41,185.67 161,938,791.19 5,684 1,936 371
38,469.73 161,942,909.75 5,309 1,808 346
35,932.88 161,946,756.73 4,959 1,689 323
33,563.31 161,950,350.01 4,632 1,577 302
31,349.99 161,953,706.34 4,326 1,473 282
29,282.62 161,956,841.34 4,041 1,376 264
27,351.57 161,959,769.61 3,775 1,286 246
25,547.87 161,962,504.76 3,526 1,201 230
23,863.10 161,965,059.55 3,293 1,122 215
22,289.44 161,967,445.86 3,076 1,048 201
20,819.54 161,969,674.80 2,873 979 187
19,446.58 161,971,756.76 2,684 914 175
19,621.06 161,973,701.42 2,708 922 177
19,797.08 161,975,663.52 2,732 930 178
19,974.66 161,977,643.23 2,757 939 180
20,153.80 161,979,640.70 2,781 947 181
20,334.52 161,981,656.08 2,806 956 183
20,516.83 161,983,689.53 2,831 964 185
20,700.74 161,985,741.21 2,857 973 186
20,886.27 161,987,811.28 2,882 982 188
21,073.44 161,989,899.91 2,908 990 190
21,262.25 161,992,007.25 2,934 999 191
21,452.72 161,994,133.48 2,960 1,008 193
21,644.86 161,996,278.75 2,987 1,017 195
21,838.69 161,998,443.24 3,014 1,026 197
22,034.23 162,000,627.11 3,041 1,036 198
22,231.48 162,002,830.53 3,068 1,045 200
22,430.46 162,005,053.68 3,095 1,054 202
22,631.19 162,007,296.72 3,123 1,064 204
22,833.68 162,009,559.84 3,151 1,073 206
23,037.94 162,011,843.21 3,179 1,083 207
23,244.00 162,014,147.00 3,208 1,092 209
23,451.85 162,016,471.40 3,236 1,102 211
23,661.53 162,018,816.59 3,265 1,112 213
23,873.05 162,021,182.74 3,294 1,122 215
24,086.41 162,023,570.05 3,324 1,132 217
24,301.64 162,025,978.69 3,354 1,142 219
24,518.75 162,028,408.85 3,384 1,152 221
24,737.76 162,030,860.73 3,414 1,163 223
24,958.69 162,033,334.50 3,444 1,173 225
25,181.54 162,035,830.37 3,475 1,184 227
25,406.34 162,038,348.53 3,506 1,194 229
23,730.51 162,040,889.16 3,275 1,115 214
22,165.22 162,043,262.21 3,059 1,042 199
20,703.18 162,045,478.74 2,857 973 186
19,337.57 162,047,549.05 2,669 909 174
18,062.04 162,049,482.81 2,493 849 163
16,870.64 162,051,289.01 2,328 793 152
15,757.82 162,052,976.08 2,175 741 142
14,718.40 162,054,551.86 2,031 692 132
13,747.55 162,056,023.70 1,897 646 124
12,840.73 162,057,398.45 1,772 604 116
11,993.73 162,058,682.53 1,655 564 108
11,202.60 162,059,881.90 1,546 527 101
10,463.65 162,061,002.16 1,444 492 94
9,773.44 162,062,048.52 1,349 459 88
9,128.76 162,063,025.87 1,260 429 82
8,526.60 162,063,938.74 1,177 401 77
7,964.17 162,064,791.40 1,099 374 72
7,438.83 162,065,587.82 1,027 350 67
6,948.14 162,066,331.70 959 327 63
6,489.82 162,067,026.52 896 305 58
6,061.74 162,067,675.50 837 285 55
5,661.89 162,068,281.67 781 266 51
5,288.41 162,068,847.86 730 249 48
4,939.57 162,069,376.70 682 232 44
4,613.74 162,069,870.66 637 217 42
4,309.41 162,070,332.04 595 203 39
4,025.15 162,070,762.98 555 189 36
3,759.63 162,071,165.49 519 177 34
3,511.64 162,071,541.46 485 165 32
3,280.00 162,071,892.62 453 154 30
3,063.64 162,072,220.62 423 144 28
3,090.96 162,072,526.98 427 145 28
3,118.52 162,072,836.08 430 147 28
3,146.33 162,073,147.93 434 148 28
3,174.39 162,073,462.56 438 149 29
3,202.70 162,073,780.00 442 151 29
3,231.25 162,074,100.27 446 152 29
3,260.06 162,074,423.40 450 153 29
3,289.13 162,074,749.40 454 155 30
3,318.46 162,075,078.32 458 156 30
3,348.04 162,075,410.16 462 157 30
3,377.89 162,075,744.97 466 159 30
3,408.01 162,076,082.76 470 160 31
3,438.39 162,076,423.56 474 162 31
3,469.04 162,076,767.40 479 163 31
3,499.97 162,077,114.30 483 164 31
3,531.17 162,077,464.30 487 166 32
3,562.65 162,077,817.42 492 167 32
3,594.40 162,078,173.68 496 169 32
3,626.44 162,078,533.12 500 170 33
3,658.77 162,078,895.77 505 172 33
3,691.38 162,079,261.64 509 173 33
3,724.28 162,079,630.78 514 175 34
3,757.47 162,080,003.21 519 177 34
3,790.96 162,080,378.95 523 178 34
3,824.74 162,080,758.05 528 180 34
3,858.83 162,081,140.52 533 181 35
3,893.22 162,081,526.41 537 183 35
3,927.91 162,081,915.73 542 185 35
3,962.91 162,082,308.52 547 186 36
3,998.22 162,082,704.81 552 188 36
4,142.71 162,083,104.63 572 195 37
4,292.42 162,083,518.90 592 202 39
4,447.53 162,083,948.14 614 209 40
4,608.25 162,084,392.90 636 217 41
4,774.77 162,084,853.72 659 224 43
4,947.31 162,085,331.20 683 233 45
5,126.09 162,085,825.93 707 241 46
5,311.31 162,086,338.54 733 250 48
5,503.23 162,086,869.67 759 259 50
5,702.08 162,087,419.99 787 268 51
5,908.11 162,087,990.20 815 278 53
6,121.59 162,088,581.01 845 288 55
6,342.77 162,089,193.17 875 298 57
6,571.94 162,089,827.45 907 309 59
6,809.38 162,090,484.64 940 320 61
7,055.40 162,091,165.58 974 332 63
7,310.30 162,091,871.12 1,009 344 66
7,574.41 162,092,602.15 1,045 356 68
7,848.05 162,093,359.59 1,083 369 71
8,131.57 162,094,144.40 1,122 382 73
8,425.32 162,094,957.55 1,163 396 76
8,729.68 162,095,800.09 1,205 410 79
9,045.03 162,096,673.06 1,248 425 81
9,371.76 162,097,577.56 1,293 440 84
9,710.28 162,098,514.73 1,340 456 87
10,061.02 162,099,485.76 1,388 473 91
10,424.42 162,100,491.86 1,439 490 94
10,800.93 162,101,534.31 1,491 508 97
11,191.03 162,102,614.40 1,544 526 101
11,595.20 162,103,733.50 1,600 545 104
12,013.96 162,104,893.02 1,658 565 108
12,447.82 162,106,094.42 1,718 585 112
12,897.34 162,107,339.20 1,780 606 116
13,363.07 162,108,628.93 1,844 628 120
13,845.60 162,109,965.24 1,911 651 125
14,345.53 162,111,349.80 1,980 674 129
14,863.50 162,112,784.35 2,051 699 134
15,400.14 162,114,270.70 2,125 724 139
15,956.13 162,115,810.72 2,202 750 144
16,532.17 162,117,406.33 2,281 777 149
17,128.97 162,119,059.55 2,364 805 154
17,747.29 162,120,772.44 2,449 834 160
18,387.89 162,122,547.17 2,538 864 165
19,051.58 162,124,385.96 2,629 895 171
19,739.18 162,126,291.12 2,724 928 178
20,451.56 162,128,265.04 2,822 961 184
21,189.61 162,130,310.19 2,924 996 191
21,954.24 162,132,429.15 3,030 1,032 198
22,746.41 162,134,624.58 3,139 1,069 205
23,567.12 162,136,899.22 3,252 1,108 212
24,417.37 162,139,255.93 3,370 1,148 220
25,298.23 162,141,697.67 3,491 1,189 228
26,210.81 162,144,227.49 3,617 1,232 236
27,156.23 162,146,848.57 3,748 1,276 244
28,135.67 162,149,564.19 3,883 1,322 253
29,150.35 162,152,377.76 4,023 1,370 262
30,201.54 162,155,292.80 4,168 1,419 272
31,290.53 162,158,312.95 4,318 1,471 282
32,418.69 162,161,442.00 4,474 1,524 292
33,587.41 162,164,683.87 4,635 1,579 302
34,798.14 162,168,042.61 4,802 1,636 313
36,052.38 162,171,522.43 4,975 1,694 324
37,351.70 162,175,127.66 5,155 1,756 336
38,697.69 162,178,862.83 5,340 1,819 348
40,092.02 162,182,732.60 5,533 1,884 361
41,536.43 162,186,741.80 5,732 1,952 374
43,032.69 162,190,895.45 5,939 2,023 387
44,582.64 162,195,198.72 6,152 2,095 401
46,188.22 162,199,656.98 6,374 2,171 416
Model parameters Value*

Contact Rate 13.4

Transmissibility 2.0%

Duration of Infectiousness 10

% Needing Hospitalization 13.80%

% Needing ICU Care 4.70%

Mortality rate 0.90%


Definitions

The number of susceptible people an infectious person


contacts.

The probability that a contact between a susceptible person


and an infected person results in infection.

The period of time (in days) an infected person can pass the
infection.

The proportion of infected people who require hospital care.

The proportion of infected people who require ICU care.

The proportion of infected people who die.

*see Details tab for explanations, suggested ranges, and


references
Historical: New Cases/Day
40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
3/4/2020 3/11/2020 3/18/2020 3/25/2020 4/1/2020 4/8/2020 4/15/2020
Historical
*Data Source - https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data

Total Cases

Totals and Averages 609,516


Date New Cases* New Deaths* Total Cases*

1/21/2020 1 0 1
1/22/2020 0 0 1
1/23/2020 0 0 1
1/24/2020 0 0 1
1/25/2020 1 0 2
1/26/2020 0 0 2
1/27/2020 3 0 5
1/28/2020 0 0 5
1/29/2020 0 0 5
1/30/2020 0 0 5
1/31/2020 1 0 6
2/1/2020 1 0 7
2/2/2020 1 0 8
2/3/2020 3 0 11
2/4/2020 0 0 11
2/5/2020 0 0 11
2/6/2020 1 0 12
2/7/2020 0 0 12
2/8/2020 0 0 12
2/9/2020 0 0 12
2/10/2020 0 0 12
2/11/2020 1 0 13
2/12/2020 0 0 13
2/13/2020 1 0 14
2/14/2020 1 0 15
2/15/2020 0 0 15
2/16/2020 0 0 15
2/17/2020 0 0 15
2/18/2020 0 0 15
2/19/2020 0 0 15
2/20/2020 0 0 15
2/21/2020 1 0 16
2/22/2020 19 0 35
2/23/2020 0 0 35
2/24/2020 0 0 35
2/25/2020 18 0 53
2/26/2020 0 0 53
2/27/2020 6 0 59
2/28/2020 1 0 60
2/29/2020 6 0 66
3/1/2020 3 1 69
3/2/2020 20 1 89
3/3/2020 14 4 103
3/4/2020 22 3 125
3/5/2020 34 2 159
3/6/2020 74 1 233
3/7/2020 105 2 338
3/8/2020 95 3 433
3/9/2020 121 4 554
3/10/2020 200 5 754
3/11/2020 271 2 1,025
3/12/2020 287 2 1,312
3/13/2020 351 10 1,663
3/14/2020 511 7 2,174
3/15/2020 777 10 2,951
3/16/2020 823 12 3,774
3/17/2020 887 16 4,661
3/18/2020 1,766 23 6,427
3/19/2020 2,988 42 9,415
3/20/2020 4,835 50 14,250
3/21/2020 5,374 60 19,624
3/22/2020 7,123 80 26,747
3/23/2020 8,459 131 35,206
3/24/2020 11,236 119 46,442
3/25/2020 8,789 211 55,231
3/26/2020 13,963 249 69,194
3/27/2020 16,797 246 85,991
3/28/2020 18,695 411 104,686
3/29/2020 19,979 484 124,665
3/30/2020 18,360 318 143,025
3/31/2020 21,595 661 164,620
4/1/2020 24,998 909 189,618
4/2/2020 27,103 1,059 216,721
4/3/2020 28,819 915 245,540
4/4/2020 32,425 1,104 277,965
4/5/2020 34,272 1,344 312,237
4/6/2020 25,398 1,146 337,635
4/7/2020 30561 1,342 368,196
4/8/2020 30613 1,906 398,809
4/9/2020 33323 1,922 432,132
4/10/2020 33901 1,873 466,033
4/11/2020 35527 2,087 501,560
4/12/2020 28391 1,831 529,951
4/13/2020 27620 1,500 557,571
4/14/2020 25023 1,541 582,594
4/15/2020 26922 2,408 609,516
4/16/2020
4/17/2020
4/18/2020
4/19/2020
4/20/2020
4/21/2020
4/22/2020
4/23/2020
4/24/2020
4/25/2020
4/26/2020
4/27/2020
4/28/2020
4/29/2020
4/30/2020
5/1/2020
5/2/2020
5/3/2020
5/4/2020
5/5/2020
5/6/2020
5/7/2020
5/8/2020
5/9/2020
5/10/2020
5/11/2020
5/12/2020
5/13/2020
5/14/2020
5/15/2020
5/16/2020
5/17/2020
5/18/2020
5/19/2020
5/20/2020
5/21/2020
5/22/2020
5/23/2020
5/24/2020
5/25/2020
5/26/2020
5/27/2020
5/28/2020
5/29/2020
5/30/2020
5/31/2020
6/1/2020
6/2/2020
6/3/2020
6/4/2020
6/5/2020
6/6/2020
6/7/2020
6/8/2020
6/9/2020
6/10/2020
6/11/2020
6/12/2020
6/13/2020
6/14/2020
6/15/2020
6/16/2020
6/17/2020
6/18/2020
6/19/2020
6/20/2020
6/21/2020
6/22/2020
6/23/2020
6/24/2020
6/25/2020
6/26/2020
6/27/2020
6/28/2020
6/29/2020
6/30/2020
7/1/2020
7/2/2020
7/3/2020
7/4/2020
7/5/2020
7/6/2020
7/7/2020
7/8/2020
7/9/2020
7/10/2020
7/11/2020
7/12/2020
7/13/2020
7/14/2020
7/15/2020
7/16/2020
7/17/2020
7/18/2020
7/19/2020
7/20/2020
7/21/2020
7/22/2020
7/23/2020
7/24/2020
7/25/2020
7/26/2020
7/27/2020
7/28/2020
7/29/2020
7/30/2020
7/31/2020
8/1/2020
8/2/2020
8/3/2020
8/4/2020
8/5/2020
8/6/2020
8/7/2020
8/8/2020
8/9/2020
8/10/2020
8/11/2020
8/12/2020
8/13/2020
8/14/2020
8/15/2020
8/16/2020
8/17/2020
8/18/2020
8/19/2020
8/20/2020
8/21/2020
8/22/2020
8/23/2020
8/24/2020
8/25/2020
8/26/2020
8/27/2020
8/28/2020
8/29/2020
8/30/2020
8/31/2020
9/1/2020
Historical: Growth Rate in New Cases/Day (dotted) and Moving Average (lin
140.0%

120.0%

100.0%

80.0%

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%
3/4/2020 3/11/2020 3/18/2020 3/25/2020 4/1/2020 4/8/2020 4/
-20.0%

4/8/2020 4/15/2020 -40.0%

Average Growth Rate Average Growth Rate


Total Deaths Infected Cases
In New Cases in New Deaths

26,057 271,223 22.65% 27.39%


Growth Rate In New Growth Rate in New
Total Deaths* Infected Cases Cases Deaths
0 1
0 1
0 1
0 1
0 2
0 2
0 5
0 5
0 5
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
0 11
0 10
0 10
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 7
0 7
0 6
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 4
0 4
0 4
0 4
0 23
0 22
0 21
0 39
0 39
0 45
0 46
0 52
0 54
1 72
2 63
6 82 57.1% -25.0%
9 114 54.5% -33.3%
11 169 117.6% -50.0%
12 272 41.9% 100.0%
14 358 -9.5% 50.0%
17 474 27.4% 33.3%
21 663 65.3% 25.0%
26 929 35.5% -60.0%
28 1,194 5.9% 0.0%
30 1,521 22.3% 400.0%
40 2,003 45.6% -30.0%
47 2,736 52.1% 42.9%
57 3,473 5.9% 20.0%
69 4,239 7.8% 33.3%
85 5,887 99.1% 43.8%
108 8,712 69.2% 82.6%
150 13,297 61.8% 19.0%
260 18,340 11.1% 20.0%
340 25,096 32.5% 33.3%
471 33,073 18.8% 63.8%
590 43,679 32.8% -9.2%
801 51,480 -21.8% 77.3%
1,050 64,371 58.9% 18.0%
1,296 80,035 20.3% -1.2%
1,707 96,553 11.3% 67.1%
2,191 113,060 6.9% 17.8%
2,509 126,267 -8.1% -34.3%
3,170 141,827 17.6% 107.9%
4,079 158,793 15.8% 37.5%
5,138 176,378 8.4% 16.5%
6,053 193,046 6.3% -13.6%
7,157 215,578 12.5% 20.7%
8,501 234,543 5.7% 21.7%
9,647 241,998 -25.9% -14.7%
10,989 252,522 20.3% 17.1%
12,895 261,250 0.2% 42.0%
14,817 274,291 8.9% 0.8%
16,690 284,724 1.7% -2.5%
18,777 293,166 4.8% 11.4%
20,608 292,623 -20.1% -12.3%
22,108 289,924 -2.7% -18.1%
23,649 280,981 -9.4% 2.7%
26,057 271,223 7.6% 56.3%
Day (dotted) and Moving Average (line)

5/2020 4/1/2020 4/8/2020 4/15/2020

Average Infected Average Daily


Case Growth Rate Mortality Rate

22.57% 0.74%
Growth Rate in New Deaths/ Infected
Infected Cases Cases
30.16% 4.76%
39.02% 2.44%
48.25% 0.88%
60.95% 1.18%
31.62% 1.10%
32.40% 1.12%
39.87% 1.05%
40.12% 0.30%
28.53% 0.22%
27.39% 0.84%
31.69% 0.46%
36.60% 0.50%
26.94% 0.44%
22.06% 0.46%
38.88% 0.54%
47.99% 0.71%
52.63% 0.57%
37.93% 0.45%
36.84% 0.44%
31.79% 0.52%
32.07% 0.36%
17.86% 0.48%
25.04% 0.48%
24.33% 0.38%
20.64% 0.51%
17.10% 0.50%
11.68% 0.28%
12.32% 0.52%
11.96% 0.64%
11.07% 0.67%
9.45% 0.52%
11.67% 0.57%
8.80% 0.62%
3.18% 0.49%
4.35% 0.55%
3.46% 0.75%
4.99% 0.74%
3.80% 0.68%
2.96% 0.73%
-0.19% 0.62%
-0.92% 0.51%
-3.08% 0.53%
-3.47% 0.86%
Historical No intervention

350,000

300,000

271,223

250,000

200,000
Infected

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
3/4/2020 3/11/2020 3/18/2020 3/25/2020 4/1/2020 4/8/2020 4/15/2020 4/22/2020 4/29/2020 5/6/2020 5/13/2020 5/20/2020 5/27/2020

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