Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 15 views

    Forecasting and Capacity Planning: Operations Management Training Program

    Uploaded by

    Trace Hdez
    The document discusses qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods. Qualitative methods include expert opinion polls, the Delphi technique, and consumer surveys. These involve asking experts or consumers their opinions about future demand. Quantitative methods include time series techniques and causal models. Time series techniques use historical sales data to forecast future demand. Causal models mathematically relate variables like demand to factors like price using regression analysis. Both qualitative and quantitative methods have advantages and limitations for forecasting demand and capacity planning.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content

    You might also like

    Forecasting and Capacity Planning: Operations Management Training Program

    Uploaded by

    Trace Hdez
    15 views19 pages
    The document discusses qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods. Qualitative methods include expert opinion polls, the Delphi technique, and consumer surveys. These involve asking experts or consumers their opinions about future demand. Quantitative methods include time series techniques and causal models. Time series techniques use historical sales data to forecast future demand. Causal models mathematically relate variables like demand to factors like price using regression analysis. Both qualitative and quantitative methods have advantages and limitations for forecasting demand and capacity planning.

    Original Description:

    some romanian dude with zero expertise

    Original Title

    12.+Qualitative+and+quantitative+methods

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    The document discusses qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods. Qualitative methods include expert opinion polls, the Delphi technique, and consumer surveys. These involve asking experts or consumers their opinions about future demand. Quantitative methods include time series techniques and causal models. Time series techniques use historical sales data to forecast future demand. Causal models mathematically relate variables like demand to factors like price using regression analysis. Both qualitative and quantitative methods have advantages and limitations for forecasting demand and capacity planning.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    15 views19 pages

    Forecasting and Capacity Planning: Operations Management Training Program

    Uploaded by

    Trace Hdez
    The document discusses qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods. Qualitative methods include expert opinion polls, the Delphi technique, and consumer surveys. These involve asking experts or consumers their opinions about future demand. Quantitative methods include time series techniques and causal models. Time series techniques use historical sales data to forecast future demand. Causal models mathematically relate variables like demand to factors like price using regression analysis. Both qualitative and quantitative methods have advantages and limitations for forecasting demand and capacity planning.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 19

    FORECASTING AND CAPACITY PLANNING

    Operations Management Training Program


    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ qualitative methods
    ➤ expert opinion polls, Delphi technique,
    and consumer surveys
    ➤ quantitative methods
    ➤ Time Series techniques and causal
    models
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ expert opinion poll
    ➤ first identify individuals with relevant
    experience
    ➤ solicit their opinions about what the
    demand for the product will be
    ➤ experts predict the likely demand for a
    given product
    ➤ a large number of experts and their
    experience-based reactions vary
    ➤ the method can be highly subjective
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ Delphi technique
    ➤ a variant of the expert opinion poll
    method
    ➤ arrive at a consensus in an uncertain area
    by questioning a panel of experts
    ➤ repeatedly until their responses appear to
    converge
    ➤ participants are given the opinions of
    everyone on the panel of experts
    ➤ is intended to generate a reasoned opinion
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ consumer survey
    ➤ potential customers about their
    purchasing plans and their projected
    buying behavior
    ➤ demand forecasts are produced by
    simply adding the probable demands
    ➤ the forecaster doesn't introduce any
    bias or value judgment
    ➤ process is tedious, cumbersome, and
    prone to error
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ Which statements are true of a
    qualitative technique?
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ 1. Customers are asked about their
    purchasing plans
    ➤ 2. Experts are asked their opinion about a
    product
    ➤ 3. Historical data on previous sales is
    collected to assess future demand
    ➤ 4. Analysis replaces opinion
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ 1. Customers are asked about their
    purchasing plans
    ➤ 2. Experts are asked their opinion about a
    product
    ➤ 3. Historical data on previous sales is
    collected to assess future demand
    ➤ 4. Analysis replaces opinion
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ Time Series methods use historical data,
    assuming that
    ➤ the causes of demand variation in the
    future will be the same as in the past
    ➤ simplest Time Series technique for
    forecasting demand is to assume that
    future sales will equal past sales
    ➤ slightly more complicated version is to
    use the simple average technique
    ➤ the most common forms of forecasting
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ based on the assumption that historical
    patterns of demand are good indicators
    ➤ it doesn't require formal knowledge of
    economic theory or of the market
    ➤ Time Series method is appropriate for
    long-range forecasts
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ Causal models of forecasting
    ➤ assume that demand is strongly related to
    a particular cause
    ➤ also a strong causal relationship between
    price and demand
    ➤ use Time Series data, but with a
    mathematical technique known as
    regression analysis
    ➤ can mathematically relate dependent
    variables like demand to independent
    variables like time, price, or promotion
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ causal models take account of real-world
    economic factors
    ➤ there are the time and cost implications
    of collecting and analyzing data
    ➤ relationships between variables can
    change over time
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ Match examples of techniques to the
    forecasting model categories to which
    they belong. Categories may have more
    than one match.
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ A. Delphi ➤ 1. Qualitative
    technique model
    ➤ B. Time Series ➤ 2. Quantitative
    model
    ➤ C. Causal
    models
    ➤ D. Consumer
    survey
    ➤ E. Expert
    opinion poll
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ A. Delphi ➤ 1. Qualitative
    technique model
    ➤ B. Time Series ➤ 2. Quantitative
    model
    ➤ C. Causal
    models
    ➤ D. Consumer
    survey
    ➤ E. Expert
    opinion poll
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ Match specific forecasting techniques to
    their descriptions.
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ A. Expert ➤ 1. Uses regression analysis to relate
    dependent variables like demand to
    opinion poll
    independent variables like price
    ➤ B. Delphi ➤ 2. Assumes that historical patterns
    technique of demand indicate future demand
    ➤ 3. Those with expertise related to a
    ➤ C. Consumer product are asked about likely
    survey future demand

    ➤ D. Time ➤ 4. A panel of knowledgeable people


    is questioned until a consensus
    Series
    emerges
    ➤ E. Causal ➤ 5. A relevant population is
    model questioned about its future
    purchasing plans
    QUALITATIVE AND
    QUANTITATIVE METHODS
    ➤ A. Expert ➤ 1. Uses regression analysis to relate
    dependent variables like demand to
    opinion poll
    independent variables like price
    ➤ B. Delphi ➤ 2. Assumes that historical patterns
    technique of demand indicate future demand
    ➤ 3. Those with expertise related to a
    ➤ C. Consumer product are asked about likely
    survey future demand

    ➤ D. Time ➤ 4. A panel of knowledgeable people


    is questioned until a consensus
    Series
    emerges
    ➤ E. Causal ➤ 5. A relevant population is
    model questioned about its future
    purchasing plans
    FORECASTING AND CAPACITY PLANNING
    Operations Management Training Program

    You might also like