Environmental Science and Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08481-1

URBAN AIR QUALITY, CLIMATE AND POLLUTION: FROM MEASUREMENT TO MODELING

APPLICATIONS

Air pollution emission effects of changes in transport supply:

the case of Bogotá, Colombia
Sonia C. Mangones 1 & Paulina Jaramillo 2 & Nestor Y. Rojas 3 & Paul Fischbeck 4

Received: 3 September 2019 / Accepted: 16 March 2020

# Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020

Abstract
Transportation policy and planning decisions, including decisions on new infrastructure and public transport improvements,
affect local and global environmental conditions. This work studies the effect of increased road capacity on traffic-related
emissions in Bogotá using a tool that couples a transportation model with emission factors from COPERT IV. We followed a
parametric approach varying transport supply and demand, comparing three scenarios: a baseline scenario that represents the
transportation system in Bogota in 2015; scenario 1 incorporates five highway capacity-enhancement projects in Bogotá and
assumes insensitive travel demand; scenario 2 incorporates the new highway projects but assumes a demand increase of 13% in
vehicle trips with private cars. Results include daily and annual values of traffic-related emissions of five air pollutant criteria:
CO, NOx, PM10, SO2, and VOC for the baseline scenario, scenario 1, and scenario 2. We found a reduction in emissions after
adding highway capacity and assuming inelastic demand (scenario 1). Scenario 1 results in a 15% reduction in PM10 emissions
and a 10% reduction in NOx emissions. In contrast, results for scenario 2 suggest increased emissions for all air pollutant criteria
(e.g., VOC and CO emissions increase by 21% and 22% compared with the baseline scenario). Therefore, new traffic demand
would eliminate the emission savings observed in scenario 1 and could potentially further degrade air quality in Bogotá. While an
exact estimate of induced demand that may result from highway expansion in Bogotá is not available, this analysis highlights that
such projects could lead to an increase in emissions unless there is a combined effort to managing demand of private vehicle trips.

Keywords Transport infrastructure . Traffic-related emission . Highway expansion impacts . Highway plan . Bogotá

Introduction
Urban air quality is a growing concern in cities around the
world, including those in developing countries (World
Health Organization 2015). According to the World Health
Organization, 9 in 10 people globally are exposed to air with
high pollution levels, and ambient air pollution was responsi-
ble for 4.2 million premature deaths around the world in 2016
(World Health Organization 2018). The transportation sector
is a growing contributor to ambient air pollution, and
increased traffic congestion will only exacerbate this
problem. For example, several studies have evaluated the

Responsible Editor: Gerhard Lammel

* Sonia C. Mangones 1
Department of Civil and Agricultural Engineering, Universidad
scmangonesm@unal.edu.co Nacional de Colombia, Carrera 30 #45-03 Ciudad Universitaria,
Bogotá, Colombia
Paulina Jaramillo 2
Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon
pjaramil@andrew.cmu.edu University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
3
Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering,
Nestor Y. Rojas Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Carrera 30 #45-03 Ciudad
nyrojasr@unal.edu.co Universitaria, Bogotá, Colombia
4
Department of Social and Decision Sciences, and Engineering and
Paul Fischbeck Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue,
Pf12@andrew.cmu.edu Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA

contribution of traffic congestion to air pollution problems in
North America. Levy et al. (2010) estimated that the mone-
tized value of mortality related to PM2.5 emissions from con-
gestion in 83 US cities totaled US$31 billion in 2000.
Similarly, Mashayekh et al. (2011) reported that the social
costs of air pollution associated with traffic congestion in 86
US metropolitan areas totaled US$24 million per day in 2007.
More recently, Requia et al. (2018) found that the economic
impact of daily cardiovascular mortality that results from air
pollution in the Toronto (Canada) metropolitan area is
US$778 million per year.
Growing concerns about congestion in cities around the
world have led to increased interest in understanding the so-
cial benefits of congestion management strategies. Studies in
European and Chinese cities have suggested that congestion
charging can reduce vehicle emissions by 5 to 25% in the
short term, depending on the city, toll rate, and pollutant type
(Tonne et al. 2008; Eliasson et al. 2009; Fu and Gu 2017).
Similarly, eco-driving, a strategy that provides dynamic ad-
vice to drivers, can, in some cases, lower fuel consumption by
10–20%. Such a reduction in fuel consumption can in turn
reduce air emissions without a significant increase in travel
time (Barth and Boriboonsomsin 2009). More recently, in a
study about the benefits of subway expansion projects in
Beijing found that the addition of 14 new subway lines could
lead to US$1 to US$3.1 billion in discounted health benefits
associated with improved air quality over 20 years (Li et al.
2019). Gately et al. (2017) estimated that speed improvements
associated with increased road capacity could lead to a 6%
reduction in PM2.5 emissions in Eastern Massachusetts. The
same study estimated a 9.5% reduction in PM2.5 as a result of
decreased demand for vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT) that
would result in free-flow conditions in the existing road net-
work (Gately et al. 2017). Choudhary and Gokhale (2019)
also suggested that traffic management strategies could reduce
air pollutant emissions in a congested corridor in India by 40
to 60%.
Other studies have found mixed air quality outcomes from
traffic management strategies. A study to estimate the emis-
sion impacts associated with traffic management strategies for
heavy goods vehicles in Dublin found that such projects could
improve speed profiles that lead to reduced emissions of air
pollutants. However, the authors also found longer travel dis-
tances offset these emission reductions (Tang et al. 2017).
Bigazzi and Rouleau (2017) reviewed air quality impacts of
22 traffic management strategies, including operating restric-
tions and pricing, lane management, speed management, traf-
fic flow control, and trip reduction strategies. The findings
suggest that there is limited evidence of air quality benefits
from 7 of the 22 strategies considered. Furthermore, the air
quality benefits of other strategies are relatively small. Finally,
the authors suggest that ex-post evaluation of traffic manage-
ment strategies is lacking. Given the growing concern with
Environ Sci Pollut Res
transportation-related emissions in cities around the world,
there is thus a need for further studies that evaluate the air
quality impacts of interventions in transportation infrastruc-
ture. In this paper, we contribute to this body of knowledge
by evaluating the air quality implications of a supply-side
congestion management strategy in Bogota, Colombia.
Over the last decade, Bogotá has implemented different
strategies to achieve an equitable, environmentally, and finan-
cially sustainable transportation system. Interventions such as
reductions of the oversized bus transit fleet, implementation of
a high-capacity bus-rapid-transit system (Transmilenio), pro-
vision for an extensive bike-lane network, and improvement
of diesel quality have had positive impacts on the air quality of
the city, by reducing transportation-related pollution
(Behrentz et al. 2009; Hidalgo et al. 2013; Universidad de
los Andes and Clear Air Institute 2010). However, the city is
plagued by traffic congestion. However, air pollution remains
a significant public health issue for Bogotá. Activities that are
contributing to air emissions in the city include poorly man-
aged land-use and transportation planning in the northern and
western suburban areas identified in Fig. 1 (Chia-Zipaquirá on
the north and Facativá-Funza on the west); fast-growing mo-
torcycle and light-duty vehicle fleets predominantly powered
by gasoline and diesel; low penetration of clean vehicle tech-
nologies; and limited air quality management capacity (SDA
et al. 2010). The contribution of congestion to poor air quality
is also a concern as recent reports suggest that Bogota ranks
among one of the worst cities in the world for traffic conges-
tion (INRIX 2019; TomTom International 2019).
Previous studies in Bogotá have focused on evaluating dif-
ferent strategies to reduce air pollution. In 2005, Zárate et al.
(2007) used an air quality model to assess repercussions of
three abatement strategies targeting heavy-duty vehicles: (i)
restriction of trucks during morning rush hours, (ii) reduction
of the bus fleet by 20%, and (iii) improvement in diesel fuel
quality. Zárate et al. (2007) reports changes over the mixing
ratios of CO, NOx, VOC, and O3. The authors concluded that
concentrations of primary pollutants decrease proportionally
with the decrease of emission in all three strategies. However,
a combined approach to reduce VOC emissions and NOx
emissions from light-duty vehicles is necessary to reduce high
levels of O3. In 2009, Rodriguez and Behrentz measured real-
world emission factors for converted natural gas vehicles and
found no reduction in emissions factors when compared with
gasoline-powered cars (Rodriguez and Behrentz 2009).
Additionally, in 2009, the Environmental Authority of
Bogotá identified strategies to decrease air pollution between
2010 and 2020 as part of the Clean Air Plan for Bogotá (SDA
et al. 2010). These strategies include requiring exhaust emis-
sion control systems for trucks and motorcycles, voluntary
inspection and maintenance programs for transit buses, edu-
cational programs for drivers, and restricted use of old buses
without post-combustion control devices. Finally, the city is
Environ Sci Pollut Res
Fig. 1 Geographic localization of
five highway infrastructure
projects with access points
looking at expanding the transportation infrastructure, includ-
ing an increase in highway capacity (Alcaldía Mayor de
Bogotá 2016). Unfortunately, there has not been any work to
analyze the air quality benefits of most of these strategies.
Our work expands on previous research by evaluating the
effect on air emissions from interventions that directly affect
the city’s transportation network. We used a bottom-up model
that couples detailed activity data from a travel-demand model
and traffic-assignment model (typically used by transportation
planning agencies) with COPERT IV emission factors
(Ntziachristos et al. 2009) to develop a high-resolution road
traffic emission inventory for Bogotá (Mangones et al. 2019).
We then investigated the effect on emissions from a highway-
capacity enhancement program. To the best of our knowledge,
none of the prior works to evaluate the impact of expanded
infrastructure capacity for Bogotá has accounted for the ef-
fects on air emissions. Then, the novelty of our work are ( i)
using a traffic simulation model typically used in transporta-
tion planning to evaluate environmental impacts of a conges-
tion management strategy and (ii) expanding the understand-
ing about the potential air quality impacts of infrastructure
projects in the context of a heavily congested metropolitan
area in the developing world.
Background
Bogotá is the capital of Colombia, a tropical country in Latin
America. Almost 8 million people live in Bogotá, and slightly
over 10 million live in its metropolitan area. Bogotá is a highly
dense, socially segregated city (Population and Household
Statistics for Bogota by District 2015). The population density
in the urban area is around 16,900 inhabitants per square km,
ranking Bogotá as the 39th densest cities in the world and the
first in Latin America (United Nations 2016). The design of
social policy in the city relies on a division of the population
into six socioeconomic classes. Half of the people in Bogotá
belong to the lower socioeconomic level (strata 1 and 2) with
an average monthly income of less than US$140
(Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística en
Colombia 2011). As is common in Latin American cities,
lower-income households are located on the peripheral areas

far away from the business districts and the city center, where
formal employment is concentrated (Bocarejo and Tafur
2013). Consequently, a large percentage of the people living
in the peripheries of the city commute to their jobs in the
central districts.
In Bogotá, more than 11 million trips a day take place on
public transportation and by walking. Transit buses and
Transmilenio (Bogotá’s Bus Rapid Transit System) account
for 35% of daily trips in the city, while walking trips account
for 32% of the daily demand. However, as Bogotá continues
to grow and its citizens gain purchasing power, the number of
cars and motorcycles is rapidly increasing. The city’s trans-
portation authority reports an annual growth rate of 14% in
light-duty vehicles registered from 2004 to 2014 (a 2.5 times
increase in 10 years), while the number of motorcycles grew at
an annual rate of 129% (representing a 13-time increase)
(Secretaria Distrital de Movilidad 2014). These rates highly
exceed Bogotá’s annual population growth rate of around 2%
(Population and Household Statistics for Bogota by District
2015). Usable road space in the city has not grown at these
rates, which has caused extreme congestion throughout the
day. The average speed was below 30 km/h for private vehi-
cles and around 20 km/h for transit buses and 26 km/h for
BRT buses in 2014. Furthermore, over the last decade,
Bogotá has not met the World Health Organization guidelines
for particulate matter, PM10 (WHO | Air Pollution Levels
Rising in Many of the World’s Poorest Cities 2016)
(Alcardía Mayor de Bogota 2009). PM10 daily concentrations
exceeded 50 mg/m3 of around 50% of the days in 2015 in
some zones of the city (SDA 2018).
The baseline year for the analysis in this paper is 2015,
the latest year for which transportation data are available.
Bogotá’s vehicle fleet included 2.1 million motor vehi-
cles; 73% were light-duty vehicles, 21% were motorcy-
cles, 1% were transit and BRT buses, 2% were taxis, and
1% were trucks. Compared with 2010, these numbers rep-
resented a 45% and 104% increase in the number of pri-
vate cars and motorcycles, respectively (Universidad de
los Andes and Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá 2015).
Heavy-duty vehicles use mainly diesel as a predominant
fuel, while private cars, taxis, and motorcycles use gaso-
line. While changes in the characteristics of the vehicle
fleet will affect future emissions in Bogota, our aim in this
paper is not to forecast future emissions for the city.
Instead, the analysis in this paper focused on estimating
the marginal effect of infrastructure changes on emissions.
By doing so, the results of this work can be compared
with other emission mitigation strategies and support
cost-effective decision-making. Thus, for this analysis,
we maintain the characteristics of the vehicle fleet in the
baseline year (2015). Future work will explore the air
emission impacts of policies that affect the characteristics
of Bogota’s vehicle fleet.
Environ Sci Pollut Res
Methods
Our analysis aims to assess the effect of increased road capac-
ity on traffic-related emissions in Bogotá. Following on prior
work, we relied on a bottom-up transportation model linked to
an emissions model for the city of Bogota. The transportation
model is based on a Travel Demand Model and Traffic
Assignment Model, which allowed us to simulate traffic be-
havior for the entire network. Input data for running the trans-
portation model included detailed network topologies, origin-
destination matrices, and a wide range of calibrated
parameters associated with nodes, links, zones, and traffic
flow models. Mangones et al. (2019) provide a detailed de-
scription of the transportation model used. Similarly, informa-
tion about the vehicle fleet in Bogota in 2015 and the emis-
sions factors used for this work are described in Mangones
et al. (2019).
For this paper, we followed a parametric approach varying
transport supply and demand within the transportation model.
Specifically, we compared two supply and demand scenarios
with a baseline for 2015. As previously noted, this baseline is
based on Bogota’s transportation network and vehicle fleet in
2015 from Mangones et al. (2019). The year 2015 serves as
the baseline, as it is the latest year for which transportation
data for Bogota is available. For scenario 1, we modified the
transport network by adding five highway-capacity enhance-
ment projects in Bogotá, which are part of the city’s develop-
ment plan (Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá 2016), and we assumed
insensitive travel demand (no changes in travel demand after
adding highway capacity). As in prior work, the changes in
the transportation network were implemented in EMME 4.0
(INRO Software 2015), a transportation planning software.
Figure 1 shows the location of the five highways added to
the transportation network in scenario 1: Viaducto Autopista
Sur (Elevated South Expressway, Hwy-1); Autopista
Longitudinal de Occidente ALO Tramo Sur (Longitudinal
West Highway, South segment, Hwy-2); Autopista Regional
de Occidente Jose Celestino Mutis (Jose Celestino Mutis
Regional West Highway, Hwy-3); Avenida Centenario
(Centerario Avenue, Hwy-4); and Avenida Boyaca
(Prolongation of Boyaca Avenue, Hwy-5). Table 1 contains
the relevant parameters of the five highway projects added to
the transportation model.
While road expansion has been widely used to manage
congestion around the world, there is no consensus that such
investments lead to long-term reductions in traffic or whether
the total benefits of such projects (social, economic, and en-
vironmental) merit the costs of this project (Næss et al. 2012).
A growing body of work suggests that road improvements
could in fact result in induced demand that increases VKT,
which could in turn increase congestion (Ladd 2013; Noland
2001; Handy and Boarnet 2014). For example, Byun et al.
(2017) used 30 years of panel data for US states and
Environ Sci Pollut Res

Table 1 Relevant specification of the five highway infrastructure projects

ID Name Connectivity Total length (km) Number of Capacity Number of Free-flow speed
lanes by direction (Veh/h per direction) access (km/h)

Hwy-1 Elevated south expressway South 9 2 3000 4 70

Hwy-2 Longitudinal west Highway - south North-south 21 2 3000 4 70
segment
Hwy-3 Jose Celestino Mutis Regional West 23 2 3000 11 70
west highway
Hwy-4 Avenida Centenario West 14 2 3000 6 70
Hwy-5 Prolongation of Avenida Boyaca North 8 2 3000 6 70

confirmed that highway expansion led to induced demand that
increased VKT. Similarly, Hymel (2019) found that increased
highway capacity leads to a proportional increase in VKT.
Furthermore, Hymel suggests that congestion relief from the
expansion of highway capacity vanishes within 5 years.
To account for the possibility of induced demand as a result
of the roadway expansion projects in Bogota, scenario 2 in-
corporates the same highway projects as in the first scenario
but with increased demand. Specifically, we calculated that a
13% increase in vehicle trips made by passenger cars would
make travel time in the transportation network the same as in
the baseline scenario. Therefore, the rise in demand used in
scenario 2 represents the amount of new traffic that would
offset the travel time savings from road-capacity enhancement
(e.g., the average travel time of private vehicles in scenario 2 is
equal to the baseline in 2015). It is worth noting that private
vehicle trips increased an average of 3% per year between
2010 and 2015, according to the household travel survey
(Secretaria Distrital de Movilidad 2015). It would thus take
between 4 and 5 years to reach a 13% increase in vehicle trips
by passenger cars. This time is consistent with the estimated
time it takes for the congestion benefits of expanded highway
capacity to vanish reported by (Hymel 2019).
Results
Table 2 shows travel time and VKT in the baseline scenario,
scenario 1 (highway capacity plan with no change in demand),
and scenario 2 (capacity plan with a 13% increase in private
vehicle trips). These values are an output of the simulations
we performed with the transportation model described in the
“Methods” section. The average time reported in Table 2 cor-
responds to the average time spent by a passenger or driver in
Bogota during rush hours (reported by mode and scenario).
Times reported for the baseline scenario (based on data for
2015) are in line with official reports (Universidad de los
Andes and Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá 2015) and data
from Secretaria Distrital de Movilidad (2015).
As expected, adding highway capacity to the network de-
creases the daily distance traveled, because travel routes are
optimized using new highways. For scenario 1, vehicle kilo-
meters traveled (VKT) reductions occur for taxis (21%) and
private vehicles (7%). VKT for fixed-route modes like buses
and trucks do not change significantly because their route
choices are highly inflexible (i.e., defined by operational de-
sign in buses and operational restrictions in trucks). The re-
sults show a small (2%) increase in VKT for motorcycles.
These results suggest that motorcyclists are choosing longer
but faster routes for some trips. For scenario 2, VKT would
increase only for private vehicles, for which we assumed a
13% increase in private vehicle trips to account for induced
demand. This increased demand assigned to the new high-
ways would result in a 4% increase in VKT for private vehi-
cles compared with the baseline.
Not surprisingly, the results suggest lower average travel
time per trip for all modes in scenario 1 compared with the
baseline. In scenario 2, we increased the number of private

Table 2 Traffic operation results

for baseline and two infrastructure Transport mode Avg. travel time (min) Daily VKT (millions)
scenarios
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Private vehicle 46 39 46 34.4 32.1 36.0

Bus 67 56 67 4.3 4.2 4.2
Bus rapid transit 59 59 59 0.42 0.42 0.42
Motorcycle 40 32 38 18.7 19,1 19.1
Taxis 36 30 37 10.5 8.3 9.2
Trucks 50 45 50 1.7 1.6 1.6
 Environ Sci Pollut Res

Table 3 Traffic operation results for baseline and two infrastructure Discussion
scenarios

Pollutants Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Policymakers often assume that increased roadway capacity
(thousand metric (thousand metric (thousand metric would alleviate traffic congestion, thus reduce noise and air
ton/year) ton/year) ton/year) pollution. However, evidence from transportation research
CO 433 413 527
strongly suggests that failure to take into account induced
NOx 36 34 41
traffic (new demand) when assessing highway expansion
plans could lead to poor transportation policy (Handy and
PM 2.0 1.7 2.1
Boarnet 2014; Milam et al. 2017). In this paper, we examined
SO2 1.1 1.0 1.3
the effect of expanded highway capacity on traffic-related
VOC 55 53 67
emissions of five pollutant criteria (CO, NOx, PM10, SO2,
and VOC) in Bogotá. Our results suggest that adding capacity
vehicle trips to maintain the same travel time for these vehicles to the heavily congested road network of Bogotá could reduce
as in the baseline. We enforced this behavior to account for traffic-related emissions immediately after the new roads start
induced travel demand from the roadway expansion project. operating, while induced demand is low (without accounting
Prior research has documented that, in the long-term (~ for congestion caused during construction). Transportation re-
5 years), such induced travel demand leads to the same con- searchers have noted, however, that increased highway capac-
gestion equilibrium as before increased roadway capacity ity leads to increased vehicle demand until congestion levels
(Ladd 2012; Litman 2001; Hymel 2019). In scenario 2, how- in the network reach or exceed pre-expansion conditions
ever, we found a slight reduction in the average travel time of (Litman 2001). In the model for Bogotá, a 13% increase in
motorcycles and a slight increase in taxi’s travel time com- personal vehicle trips in the expanded highway network
pared with the baseline. would result in the same travel times as in the baseline condi-
Table 3 summarizes the annual values of traffic-related tions before the addition of roadway capacity. Such increased
emissions of the five air pollutant criteria for the baseline, demand in scenario 2 results in reduced speed through the
scenario 1, and scenario 2. We calculated these emissions network and increases the distance traveled in private vehi-
based on the COPERT IV emission factors (Ntziachristos cles. These changes eliminate the initial emission reductions
et al. 2009), as described in Mangones et al. (2019). These from increased highway capacity. The combined effect of
results suggest a reduction in emissions after adding capacity lower speeds and increased VKT in scenario 2 is a 22% in-
on highways and assuming inelastic demand (scenario 1). crease in VOC emissions and a 21% increase in CO emissions
Specifically, the results suggest a 15% reduction in PM10 compared with the baseline scenario. The changes in NOx and
emissions and a 10% reduction in NOx emissions in scenario SO2 emissions are minor. Increased VOC and NOx emissions
1 (Fig. 2). In contrast, the results show an increase in emis- could be particularly problematic for Bogotá. The atmosphere
sions for all air pollutant criteria in scenario 2. For example, in Bogota is VOC-limited and, as Nedbor-Gross et al. (2018)
VOC and CO emissions increase by 21% and 22% compared have shown, ozone concentrations are low because of NOx
with the baseline scenario, respectively. Increased emissions titration. Increased VOC and NOx emissions in scenario 2 also
in scenario 2 are a result of increased VKT and lower speeds in lead to a higher VOC/NOx ratio compared with the baseline
the network compared with the baseline scenario. scenario. As a result, the changes in emissions in scenario 2

Fig. 2 Percent change of traffic-

related emissions of five pollutant
criteria for scenario 1 and scenario
2 compared with the baseline
Environ Sci Pollut Res
would lead to increased tropospheric ozone, which would ex-
acerbate the ozone peaks that are already a problem in Bogota
(Pachón 2014).
While an exact estimate of induced demand that may result
from highway expansion in Bogotá is not available, this anal-
ysis highlights that such projects could lead to an increase in
emissions unless there is a combined effort to manage the
demand of private vehicle trips. Additionally, other air emis-
sion mitigation strategies, such as the deployment of cleaner
vehicle technologies, may be more effective and should be the
focus of future work.
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