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Comparison of Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in Modelling of Waste Coconut Oil Ethyl Esters Production
Comparison of Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in Modelling of Waste Coconut Oil Ethyl Esters Production
Environmental Effects
To cite this article: Olusegun David Samuel & Modestus O. Okwu (2018): Comparison of
Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in modelling of
waste coconut oil ethyl esters production, Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and
Environmental Effects, DOI: 10.1080/15567036.2018.1539138
Introduction
Unrest over escalating price and unsustainable demand of fossil fuel, growing environmental concerns and
rapid exhaustion of world petroleum reserves have compelled stakeholders to seek for renewable energy
sources (Das et al. 2018). Production of biodiesel is achieved by means of transesterification process
(Kumar et al. 2018; Samuel and Gulum 2017). The process entails reaction of triglycerides in oil-bearing
feedstock with either methanol or ethanol in the presence of an appropriate catalyst, leading to the
formation of methyl or ethyl esters of oil and glycerol (Anastopoulos et al. 2009; Saraee et al. 2017). The
global study of biodiesel can be attributed to favourable properties such as (1) inherent lubricity, (2) higher
flash point and cetane number, (3) less exhaust emissions tails (especially CO, HC, SOX, and smoke)
(Moser 2009). This has paved for its substitution for fossil diesel. Researchers (Demirbas 2009a; Liaquat
et al. 2012; Winchester and Reilly 2015) highlighted that high cost of feedstock is a major factor which limits
total substitution of diesel fuel. Non-edible vegetables oil, waste oils and less explored feedstocks are suitable
for biodiesel development (Chhetri et al. 2008; Demirbas et al. 2016; Jain et al. 2018). In Nigeria, 7,000
metric tones of coconut palm were produced in 2015 alone (USDA 2015). Among the oil, waste coconut
oil (CNO) has emerged as the oil which is not fit for cooking purpose. The preference of CNO for biodiesel
can be attributed to its lower iodine value, exhaust emission, carbon deposit, and excellent lubricity (Cloin
2005). Above all, CNO is underexploited and largest production of coconut plantation is observed in Lagos
State, Nigeria (Odewale et al. 2012).
The preference of ethanol to methanol for biodiesel production is due to its renewability nature
and environmental friendliness (Demirbas 2009b; Musa 2016). Also, ethyl esters of vegetable oils are
completely bio-based and nontoxic (Taslim et al. 2017).
Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is mostly adopted statistical tool for the optimization of
transesterification variables in biodiesel production (Kumar, Jain, and Kumar 2017). It is useful in
developing a correlation between input variables and tool observed outputs (Ghoshet al. 2012).
Artificial Neural network (ANN) is a soft computing tool for training input and output complex
nonlinear variables (Alavala 2007).
Design of experiment
RSM-based modeling of CNOEE
A three-factor-three level central composite design jointed with the RSM was explored to analyze the
experimental value depicted in Table 1. The selection of the variables and ranges was according to
the literature (Silva, Camargo, and Ferreira 2011; Samuel, Giwa, El-Suleiman 2016). Three variables
were adopted to study the response layout and to develop the model and optimize the variables. The
influence of A (reaction temperature, oC), B (ethanol:oil molar ratio) and C (catalyst dosage, wt.%) at
three levels. Design expert (7.0 version) were applied to analyze the data. The step entails the
following: Analysis of variance (ANOVA), a regression assessment, and the depicting of the 3D-
plot. The data presented in Table 1 were analyzed using Eq. (1).
X
k X
k X
k X
k
Ypredicted ¼ βo þ βij xi þ βij Xi 2 þ βij Xi Xj þ e (1)
i¼1 i¼1 j > 1 j¼1
where Ypredicted is the predicted response variable (CNOEE ester yield); β0 ; βii ; βij are the regression
coefficients; k is the number of factors studied and optimized in the experiment, and e is the random
error. The Average values were indicated from the duplicated experimental run to ensure accuracy.
model techniques. The statistical indices of the ANN and RSM models are determined using
Equations (2)–(7). The accuracy of the models according to the statistical indices.
0 1
B Pn C
B Y y Y :m y C
R¼B C
pred:m pred exp exp
B sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
m¼1
C (2)
@ Pn 2 P n 2 A
m¼1 Y pred:m y pred Y exp :m y exp
m¼1
Pn
ðYi;p Y1;e Þ2
R2 ¼ 1 Pni¼1 2 (3)
i¼1 ðYi;p Ye;ave Þ
sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Pn 2
i¼1 ðYi;e Yi;p Þ
RMSE ¼ (4)
n
X n
Yi;e Yi;p
MAE ¼ (5)
i¼1
n
RMSE
SEP ¼ (6)
Ye;ave
100 X
n
Yi;e Yi;p
AAD ¼ (7)
n i¼1 Yi;e
where Yie, Yip, and n are the experimental value, predicted value, and number of data, respectively.
The interaction between temperature and catalyst amount was statically significant, P < 0.005 for
CNOEE's yield. But the interaction between the temperature and oil-to-ethanol molar ratio, and oil-to-
ethanol molar ratio and catalyst amount were not significant (P > 0.005). The temperature, oil-to-
ethanol molar ratio and catalyst amount were found significant for the CNOEE's yield.
93.8
92.0
90.1
88.3
Yield (%)
86.5
12.0
75.0
10.5
62.5
9.0
50.0
93.8
92.0
90.1
88.3
Yield (%)
86.5
1.25
75.0
1.13
62.5
1.00
50.0
0.75 25.0
8 O. D. SAMUEL AND M. O. OKWU
93.8
92.0
90.1
88.3
Yield (%)
86.5
1.25
12.0
1.13
10.5
1.00
9.0
0.75 6.0
Figure 3. (a) Coconut oil ethyl ester as a function of reaction temperature and oil/ethanol molar ratio. (b) coconut oil ethyl ester as
a function of reaction temperature and catalyst amount. (c) coconut oil ethyl ester as a function of oil/ethanol molar ratio and
catalyst amount.
best 20 itemized in Table 3. The value of the seventh row gave the best result as shown in bold text of
Table 3.
ENERGY SOURCES, PART A: RECOVERY, UTILIZATION, AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS 9
The correlation coefficient (R) specifies the degree of association or relationship among the variables
in question. Generally speaking, a correlation value of 0 is believed to be the absence of linear relation-
ship, while 1 implies perfect relationship between variables. The R2 value within the range of 0.7 to 1.0
signifies a satisfactory result. The continuous iteration (or refining) of weight parameters was done to
obtain a model with the best possible fit. The iteration was performed several times to achieve the best
value presented in Table 3. The best solution as found at the 7th iteration with the lowest MSE value and
the highest R values for training, testing and validation. The solution to the programmed ANN system is
obtained at the seventh row with minimal MSE value as represented in Table 3. The straight lines
(Figure 4) are the linear relationships between the output and the target data used in this study. The
correlation coefficients (R) between the actual and the predicted values are 0.99456 (training), 0.99987
(testing), and 0.97811 (validation). Therefore, the ANN prediction for training, validation, and testing is
Figure 4. Comparison between the experimental values and yield predicted by ANN for (a) training (b) testing (c) validation.
10 O. D. SAMUEL AND M. O. OKWU
highly substantial and meritorious in terms of correlation. As noticed in Figures 3a–d and Table 3, the
performance value for the final iteration gave a satisfactory result.
Figure 5. Actual and predicted ANN values for developing a cleaner fuel.
ENERGY SOURCES, PART A: RECOVERY, UTILIZATION, AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS 11
Kinematic viscosity (KV) of CNOEE (4.629 mm2/s) certifies the ranges of ASTM D6751 (1.9-6.0
mm2/s) and EN14214 (3.5-5.0 mm2/s). However, it is higher than those of B0 (2.802 mm2/s),
biodiesel specified by Kumar, Kumar and Singh 2010 (2.6 mm2/s), Habibullah et al. 2015 (4.0927
mm2/s) and Sulaiman, Aziz, and Aroua 2013 (3.62 mm2/s). The fuel having higher KV can lead to a
reduction in engine power and increase in exhaust emission (Samuel and Gulum 2018; Dobovišek et
al. ).
Flash point (FP) of CNOEE (160 oC) is higher than those of B0 (68 oC) and biodiesel indicated by
Habibullah et al. 2015 (106.5 oC). Fuel having higher FP reduces the risk of fire hazard and this
property is an advantage over diesel fuel (Samuel, Boye and Amosun 2015).
CNOEE provides cloud point (CP) and pour point (PP) of -7 oC and -8 oC, respectively, which
are higher than those of B0 (-12 oC and -18 oC, respectively). It is though that the high CP and PP
will limit the application of CNOEE in cold region (Phankosol et al. 2014). However, researchers
(Samuel, Boye and Amosun 2015; Islam et al. 2016) remarked that blending with different agents
and winterization can improve CP and PP.
Conclusion
The ethylic production of biodiesel from low free fatty acid coconut oil is reported from the
experimental results:
RSM was successfully explored for effective modelling and prediction in the experiment. The
established regression model indicated 96.70% of the influence on the CNOEE yield can be
adequately presented by the variation in the transesterification parameters. However, the for-
mulated ANN predictive model (3:10:1) exhibited higher flexibility and capacity to showcase non-
linear relationship.
The efficacy of the RSM and ANN models was assessed based on the statistical indices such as R2,
RMSE, MAE, and AAD. The computed R2 of 0.9564, RMSE of 0.72739, SEP of 0.008021, MAE of
0.612, and AAD of 0.674901 for RSM model compared to those of R R2 (0.9980), RMSE (0.68615),
SEP (0.007567), MAE (0.325), and AAD (0.3877) for ANN which indicate the superiority of the
ANN model over the RSM model.
The assessment of basic properties indicated that the produced coconut oil ethyl ester is
comparable to that of fossil diesel. In the light of this research, (i) other important fuel properties
(cetane number, heating value, ester content, oxidation stability, iodine value, methanol content,
etc.) of the biodiesel, (2) thermodynamic properties (such as: thermal conductivity, thermal diffu-
sivity) and (3) analyze the exergetic efficiency of the reactor, storage stability of biodiesel and also
testing of produced fuel in the internal combustion engine can be investigated for the future studies.
12 O. D. SAMUEL AND M. O. OKWU
ORCID
Olusegun David Samuel http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6625-2820
Modestus O. Okwu http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7761-9659
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