HCT 214 Assignment

1. A test of a certain rare disease is assumed to be correct 95% of the time: if the
person has the disease, the test result is positive with probability 0.95, and if the
person does not have the disease, the test is negative with probability 0.95. A
person is drawn at random from a certain population has probability of 0.001 of
having the disease.
a) Find the probability that a random person tests positive. [4 marks]
b) Given that the person just tested positive, what is the probability he/she has
the disease? [4 marks]
2. Ben has lost his dog in either forest A (with probability 0.4) or in forest B (with
probability 0.6).
If the dog is in forest A and Ben spends a day searching for it in forest A, the
conditional probability that he will find the dog that day is 0.25. Similarly, if the
dog is in forest B and Ben spends a day looking for it there, he will find the dog
that day with probability 0.15.
The dog cannot go from one forest to the other. Ben can search only in the
daytime, and he can travel from one forest to the other only overnight.
The dog is alive during day 0, when Ben loses it, and during day 1, when Ben
starts searching. It is alive during day 2 with probability 2/3. In general, for n ≥
1, if the dog is alive during day n−1, then the probability it is alive during day n
is 2/(n+1). The dog can only die overnight. Ben stops searching as soon as he
finds his dog, either alive or dead.
a) In which forest should Ben look on the first day of the search to maximize the
probability he finds his dog that day? [3 marks]
b) Ben looked in forest A on the first day but didn’t find his dog. What is the
probability that the dog is in forest A? [3 marks]
c) Ben flips a fair coin to determine where to look on the first day and finds the
dog on the first day. What is the probability that he looked in forest A?
[4 marks]
d) Ben decides to look in forest A for the first two days. What is the probability
that he finds his dog alive for the first time on the second day?

[4 marks]
e) Ben decides to look in forest A for the first two days. Given that he did not find
his dog on the first day, find the probability that he does not find his dog dead
on the second day. [5 marks]
f) Ben finally finds his dog on the fourth day of the search. He looked in forest A
for the first 3 days and in forest B on the fourth day. Given this information,
what is the probability that he found his dog alive?
[5 marks]
3. Exactly 1/5th of the people in a town have Beaver Fever (BLAH).
There are two tests for Beaver Fever, TEST1 and TEST2. When a person goes to a
doctor to test for Beaver Fever, with probability 2/3 the doctor conducts TEST1 on
him and with probability 1/3 the doctor conducts TEST2 on him.
When TEST1 is done on a person, the outcome is as follows:

 If the person has the disease, the result is positive with probability 3/4.
 If the person does not have the disease, the result is positive with probability
1/4.

When TEST2 is done on a person, the outcome is as follows:

 If the person has the disease, the result is positive with probability 1.
 If the person does not have the disease, the result is positive with probability
1/2.

A person is picked uniformly at random from the town and is sent to a doctor to
test for Beaver Fever. The result comes out positive. What is the probability that
the person has the disease? [10 marks]

4. In the far-off land of Spain, two soccer teams, Barcelona and Madrid have been
battling each other for centuries to see who is more awesome. They play two
games a year: one in the Spring and one in the Fall. The Madrid team has a
tendency to fire their coaches very often to try to improve their results. The
outcomes of the games are as follows:

1. If Madrid has not fired their coach since the previous game:
2
 Barcelona wins with probability
5
2
 Madrid wins with probability
5
1
 They tie with probability
5

2. If Madrid has fired their coach since the previous game (they haven’t yet realized
that it’s a bad idea):
3
 Barcelona wins with probability
5
1
 Madrid wins with probability
5
 1
 They tie with probability
5

Now, Madrid does not fire their coach if they win or tie, but if they lose, they will fire
their coach with 90% probability following the loss. For the following two questions,
assume that Madrid did not fire their coach before the Spring 2018 game. Here,
everything is mutually independent unless otherwise specified. You can use the
following timeline to help you visualize the situation.

No body Spring 2018 Madrid Fall 2018

fired Game coach fired? Game

a) Given that Madrid lost the Fall 2018 game, what is the probability that they
fired their coach between the Spring and Fall games of 2018?
[10 marks]

b) What is the probability that Madrid fired their coach between the Spring and
Fall games in 2018 given that they lost BOTH of the games in 2018?
[10 marks]