ARTICLE IN PRESS

Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219

The depression of tropical snowlines at the last glacial maximum:

What can we learn from climate model experiments?
Masa Kageyamaa,, Sandy P. Harrisonb,c, Ayako Abe-Ouchid,e
a
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), CE Saclay, L’Orme des Merisiers, Bâtiment 701,
F-91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France
b
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Postbox 100164, D-07701 Jena, Germany
c
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
d
Centre for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904, Japan
e
Frontier Research System for Global Change, Showa-cho, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan

Abstract

Analyses of simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) made with 17 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs)
participating in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, and a high-resolution (T106) version of one of the models
(CCSR1), show that changes in the elevation of tropical snowlines (as estimated by the depression of the maximum altitude of the
0 1C isotherm) are primarily controlled by changes in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The correlation between the two variables,
averaged for the tropics as a whole, is 95%, and remains 480% even at a regional scale. The reduction of tropical SSTs at the LGM
results in a drier atmosphere and hence steeper lapse rates. Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly the weakening
of the Asian monsoon system and related atmospheric humidity changes, amplify the reduction in snowline elevation in the northern
tropics. Colder conditions over the tropical oceans combined with a weakened Asian monsoon could produce snowline lowering
of up to 1000 m in certain regions, comparable to the changes shown by observations. Nevertheless, such large changes are not
typical of all regions of the tropics. Analysis of the higher resolution CCSR1 simulation shows that differences between the free
atmospheric and along-slope lapse rate can be large, and may provide an additional factor to explain regional variations in observed
snowline changes.
r 2005 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction temperature (see e.g. Stocker et al., 2001). The CLIMAP

1.1. LGM tropical surface temperatures, snowlines and
lapse rates
One of the most persistent obstacles to understanding
the climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM, ca
21,000 calendar yr B.P.) has been the issue of quantify-
ing the cooling of the tropics. This issue is important
because the energy transfer from the equator to the
poles is fundamental to the maintenance of the atmo-
spheric and oceanic circulation regimes, and there is
disagreement about the extent to which negative feed-
backs could buffer the tropics against changes in
Corresponding author.
(1981) global reconstruction of sea-surface temperatures
(SSTs), which has been used to prescribe ocean
conditions in most atmospheric general circulation
model (AGCM) simulations of the LGM, indicated
that the mean LGM cooling across the tropical oceans
was less than 1 1C. Rind and Peteet (1985) argued that
climate models could not allow such small changes in
tropical SSTs and simultaneously produce the cooling of
5 1C to 6 1C inferred from snowline depression on
tropical mountains. Studies using single-cell tropical
climate models reached the same conclusion (Betts and
Ridgway, 1992; Greene et al., 2002). What was unclear
was whether this mismatch reflected errors in the SST
reconstructions, errors in the interpretation of snowline
data, limitations in the geographical representativeness

1040-6182/$ - see front matter r 2005 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2005.02.013

M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219
of the available snowline data, or problems in the
models themselves. There could have been problems
with the original climate simulations because atmo-
spheric processes in the tropical belt, such as deep
convection, are among the most difficult to simulate and
their representation in climate models still represents a
major source of uncertainty in climate prediction
(Houghton et al., 2001). However, research during the
last two decades has produced substantially revised
estimates of both oceanic and terrestrial climates, and
also revised reconstructions and interpretations of LGM
snowlines as summarised in the papers in this volume.
Recent estimates of tropical SSTs based on alkenone
unsaturation ratios in marine sediments suggest that the
mean zonal cooling in the tropics at the LGM was
somewhere between 2 1C and 3 1C (Rosell-Melé et
al., 1998; Sonzogni et al., 1998; Mix et al., 1999). These
reconstructions are consistent with estimates of tropical
cooling at sea level based on pollen reconstructions from
lowland (o1500 m above present sea level) sites (Farrera
et al., 1999). The Farrera et al. (1999) data compilation
suggested that the changes in lowland temperature were
accompanied in some regions by a steepening in lapse
rates, and that these changes in regional lapse rate might
go some way to explaining the large changes in
temperature at still higher altitudes inferred from
snowline changes (Rind and Peteet, 1985; Broecker
and Denton, 1990; Porter, 2001). In a companion paper
based on analyses of a suite of climate-model experi-
ments, Pinot et al. (1999) pointed out that the simulated
cooling over the tropics at the LGM was 1.3 times larger
over tropical land than over the tropical ocean. This
feature, which is also evident from palaeo-reconstruc-
tions, can be seen as a manifestation of a lapse rate
change at the LGM. Whether the changes in lapse rate
6
Altitude (km)
-30
-7.5 -7.25
Fig. 1. Annual mean lapse rate in the tropics (in 1C/km) as a function of latitude and altitude, as computed from the NCEP Reanalysis data (Kalnay
et al., 1996).
ARTICLE IN PRESS
203
reconstructed from pollen data by Farrera et al. (1999)
are consistent with snowline evidence can be evaluated
using the new compilation of snowline data presented in
this volume (Mark et al., 2005). Our aim in this paper is
somewhat different, namely to assess whether the
changes in lapse rate inferred from the palaeoenviron-
mental evidence are present in climate-model simula-
tions, and if so to investigate the physical mechanisms
that produce these changes.
1.2. Tropical lapse rates today
The vertical structure of the tropical atmosphere
today is characterised by absolute values of annual
mean lapse rate in the lower troposphere (below
altitudes of around 5000 m) smaller than 6 1C/km,
values that are typical of a moist environment (Fig. 1).
Higher in the troposphere, the absolute values of annual
mean lapse rate increase towards the dry adiabatic value
of 9.8 1C/km. This shift is related to the formation of
cumulonimbus clouds and their related downdraughts
result in dry air being carried from the high troposphere
downward (Peixoto and Oort, 1992). In the generally
drier climate of the LGM, in which the hydrological
cycle was reduced and the amount and distribution of
clouds were substantially different from the modern
situation, several mechanisms could explain steeper
lapse rates (in absolute values) between sea level and
the typical altitude of the tropical glaciers (ca 4000 to
6000 m a.s.l.). As the atmosphere becomes drier, the
lapse rate in the lower troposphere would be expected to
increase towards the dry adiabatic value. Even if the
lapse rate in the lower troposphere remained unchanged,
a downward shift in the transition between the moister
and the drier zone would also result in steeper lapse
-15 0 15 30
Latitude
-7.0 -6.75 -6.5 -6.25 -6.0 -5.75 -5.5 -5.25 -5.0 -4.75 -4.5 -4.25
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204 M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219

rates at the typical elevation of tropical glaciers. Both
these mechanisms could result in apparently steeper
lapse rates in the lower troposphere and produce larger
temperature changes at high altitudes than at sea level.
1.3. Objectives of this paper
The first objective of the present paper is to analyse the
snowline depressions simulated by the AGCMs run in the
first phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercompar-
ison Project (PMIP, Joussaume and Taylor, 2000). Within
this project, 17 models were run under the same protocols
(same boundary conditions, same parameters for insola-
tion, same trace gas concentrations) for the LGM.
Comparison of these simulations therefore allows a
rigorous evaluation of the uncertainty due to differences
in model configuration. We use the PMIP simulations to
address some of the questions raised above: Are
temperature changes larger at high altitudes in the
atmosphere than at the surface? Are there corresponding
changes in the atmospheric lapse rate and if so, at which
altitude? Are the latter changes related to atmospheric
changes in humidity (as could be expected from the fact
that the LGM is thought to have been generally drier)? In
these first analyses, we only consider free atmosphere
temperature and humidity. This is mostly for practical
reasons: the PMIP models were run at low resolution
(typically ca 51 in longitude and latitude, reaching 2.8 1 for
the highest resolution models). The spatially-smoothed
topography in the models can never reach the altitudes at
which tropical glaciers typically grow, and thus it is not
possible to make a direct comparison between simulated
surface temperatures and observations of equilibrium
snowline altitudes.
The data stored in the PMIP database are insufficient
to investigate all aspects of tropical snowline depression
at the LGM. Specifically, the data are insufficient to
reconstruct free atmospheric lapse rates at individual
grid points across the tropics; they are only sufficient to
permit reconstructions of zonally averaged lapse rates.
Furthermore, there have been considerable improve-
ments in climate models and computing facilities since
the PMIP experiments were run. One of these improve-
ments is the possibility to run models at much higher
resolution. We have therefore analysed results from a
high-resolution (T106, 1.125 1 in longitude and latitude)
version of one of the PMIP models, CCSR1 (Namaguti
et al., 1997). Even at this resolution, some of the tropical
mountains are not high enough to be perennially snow-
covered but the improved resolution enables us to use
output from the high-resolution model to answer two
questions: first, are there large regional departures from
the behaviour detected from the zonal averages available
in the PMIP database? Second: are there differences
between the lapse rate computed from the simulated
surface temperatures along mountain slopes (i.e. the
along-slope lapse rate) and the free atmospheric lapse
rate?
2. Results from the PMIP experiments
The Last Glacial Maximum was one of the foci of the
first phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercompar-
ison Project (Joussaume and Taylor, 2000) and a
number of simulations are available for analysis. The
LGM simulations (Table 1) were defined by changes
in orbital parameters, the imposition of LGM ice
sheets and sea-level changes, and low atmospheric
CO2 concentration (see Pinot et al., 1999 and
http://www-lsce.cea.fr/pmip/ for details of the experi-
mental design). Orbital parameters for 1950 A.D. were

Table 1
Models taking part in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project LGM exercise

Model Abbreviation used in this paper Resolution SSTs Data used in this study

CCC2.0 ccc2.0 T32, L10 fix/cal Yes/yes

CCM1 ccm1 R15, L12 cal Yes
CCSR1 ccsr1 T21, L20 fix Yes
ECHAM3 echam3 T42, L19 fix Yes
Genesis1 — R15, L12 cal No
Genesis2 gen2 T31, L18 fix/cal Yes/yes
GFDL gfdl R30, L20 cal Yes
LMCELMD4 — sin(lat)  7.5 1, L11 fix/cal No/no
LMCELMD5 — sin(lat)  5.6 1, L11 fix No
MRI2 mri2 4 1  5 1, L15 fix/cal Yes/yes
UGAMP ugamp T42, L19 fix/cal Yes/yes
UKMO ukmo 2.5 1  3.5 1, L19 cal Yes

The first term in column 3 gives horizontal resolution and the second term the number of levels (L) in the atmosphere. The fourth column identifies
whether the simulation was run with prescribed SSTs (fix) or whether the SSTs were computed by the model (cal). Models whose results have not
been used in the present study (no in column 5) were excluded because the necessary data was missing from the PMIP database.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219 205

specified in the modern control experiment and were 6000 Control

gen2fix
specified following Berger (1978) for the LGM. Ice-sheet 5500 mri2fix
ugampfix
extent and height were prescribed according to Peltier 5000

Altitude(m)
ccc2.0fix
(1994). The atmospheric CO2 concentration was lowered echam3fix
4500 ccsr1fix
to conform approximately to ice core data (Raynaud et gen2cal
mri2cal
al., 1993). In models where the control simulation was 4000
ugampcal
run with a CO2 concentration of 345 ppm, the LGM 3500
ccc2.0cal
ccm1cal
CO2 concentration was set to 200 ppm. In models where gfdlcal
3000 ukmocal
the control simulation used a different CO2 concentra- 0 NCEP
LGM Control
tion, the LGM CO2 concentration was set to 200/345 of -200
NCEP2d

the control CO2 concentration.

-400

Altitude(m)
Two sets of LGM experiments were made, with diffe-
rent sets of models (Table 1). In the first set (designated -600
by the code ‘‘fix’’ in Table 1), seasonal changes in sea- -800
surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distribution -1000
were imposed based on the CLIMAP (1981) data set. In
-1200
the second set of experiments (designated by the code 2
‘‘cal’’ in Table 1), SSTs were calculated using a mixed- 1 LGM Control

layer ocean model coupled to the atmospheric model.
Some modelling groups performed both experiments,
thus making it possible to assess the impact of the
mixed-layer ocean model on the simulated climate
(Pinot et al., 1999). In all but one of the mixed-layer
ocean experiments, the simulated SSTs were lower than
reconstructed by CLIMAP. From the atmospheric point
of view, one can therefore interpret these runs as
sensitivity experiments to lower SSTs.
The PMIP database contains air temperature data on
a longitude-latitude grid at the 850 hPa and 200 hPa
levels in the atmosphere. Using only these two levels to
compute a lapse rate would result in an overestimation
of the lapse rate in the lower troposphere because of the
structure shown in Fig. 1: the larger values of the lapse
rate for the upper troposphere (above 5000 m) would
bias its estimate under this altitude, and this is precisely
the lapse rate we are interested in. Temperature data are
available for multiple levels in the atmosphere, but only
as zonal averages for each latitude band. These zonal
averages are based on both land and ocean grid cells.
For each model, we therefore computed the simulated
altitude of the 0 1C isotherm and the lapse rate from
the zonal average temperatures at 15 pressure levels
provided in the PMIP database. We have checked
that the altitude of the 0 1C isotherm computed from
the zonal averages of temperature (solid black line on
Fig. 2a) are similar to the zonal average of the altitude
of the 0 1C isotherm using the NCEP Reanalysis data
(dashed black line on Fig. 2a, labelled NCEP2d), for
which we have three-dimensional fields (Kalnay et al.,
1996). Conversions from pressure to altitude levels
were calculated using the 850, 500 and 200 hPa
geopotential heights available in the database. Some
models did not archive all of the necessary data to
make even these calculations; our analyses are therefore
based on a subset of 12 of the 17 PMIP simulations (see
Table 1).
Temperature(degC)
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Latitude
Fig. 2. Top: maximum altitude reached by the 0 1C isotherm during a
seasonal cycle, computed from zonally averaged temperatures from
land and ocean points in the control (modern) simulation for each of
the PMIP models. The observed position of this isotherm, derived
from the NCEP Reanalysis data set, is shown for comparison. The
dashed black line labelled ‘NCEP2d’ shows the zonal average of the
maximum altitude of the 0 1C isotherm computed for each point on the
NCEP ReAnalyses grid (for comparison with the value computed from
the zonally averaged temperatures). Middle: the simulated change in
the position of the maximum 0 1C isotherm between LGM and today
(LGM-Control). The results for ccm1cal do not cover the 20–30 1N
latitude band because the original data in the PMIP database is
masked. Bottom: change (LGM-CTRL) in the SST of the warmest
month for each model.
2.1. Snowline elevation in the modern (control) and
LGM simulations
We assume that the position of the snowline can be
approximated as the highest altitude of the 0 1C
isotherm during the year. This is justified by the fact
that under modern conditions, the glacier equilibrium
line altitude is highly correlated with the summer
freezing height (Greene et al., 2002). According to
the NCEP Reanalysis data (Kalnay et al., 1996) the
zonal average position of this isotherm today (black
line, Fig. 2) lies at ca 4900 m above sea level in the
equatorial band (10 1N–10 1S). However, as the three-
dimensional fields show (Fig. 3) there is some spatial
variation within this band: the isotherm is lower over the
Pacific Ocean and higher over Africa. South of 10 1S, the

206 M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219
30
25
20
15
10
5
latitude
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-180 -120
4200.0 4400.0 4600.0
Fig. 3. Highest altitude reached by the 0 1C isotherm in the NCEP Reanalysis data (Kalnay et al., 1996).
zonal average position of the 0 1C isotherm remains at
ca 4900 m a.s.l. until ca 18 1S and then descends steeply
to ca 4500 m a.s.l. by 30 1S (Fig. 2). At this latitude, it
can be as low as 4200 m locally. In the northern tropics,
north of 10 1N, the zonal average position of the 0 1C
isotherm is at ca 4800 m and there is apparently no
change with increasing latitude (Fig. 2). In reality, there
are considerable longitudinal differences in the altitude
of the 0 1C isotherm in the northern tropics (Fig. 3).
Over the Pacific, the Atlantic and Africa, the altitude of
the 0 1C isotherm decreases with latitude in a fashion
comparable to the changes shown in the southern
tropics. However, the isotherm lies at considerably
higher elevations over Asia (ca 5600 m a.s.l.) than
elsewhere in the topics. The abnormally high elevation
of the 0 1C isotherm over Asia is a result of latent and
sensible heat transfers associated with the Asian
monsoon and the surface radiative balance over the
high elevation regions of the Tibetan Plateau and the
Himalayas. The fact that in zonal average the 0 1C
isotherm maximum value does not decrease in the
northern tropics compared to the latitudes nearer to the
equator is therefore due to the Asian monsoon and the
high elevation of the Himalayas and the Tibetan
Plateau, which compensate for the latitude effect.
Most of the PMIP models reproduce the zonal
average altitude of the 0 1C isotherm reasonably well
(7200 m) and also the pattern of change with latitude
(Fig. 2, top). Two models produce less realistic estimates
of the modern position of the 0 1C isotherm: echam3fix
is too warm in the tropics and hence the simulated
altitude of the 0 1C isotherm in the equatorial zone is ca
500 m higher than observed, and ccm1cal is too cold and
the simulated altitude of the 0 1C isotherm in the
equatorial zone is ca 900 m lower than observed. Two
of the models (gen2cal, ccm1cal) show a gradual
ARTICLE IN PRESS
-60 0 60 120
longitude
4800.0 5000.0 5200.0 5400.0 5600.0 5800.0
decrease in the elevation of the 0 1C isotherm across
the northern tropics, unlike the observations. In the case
of gen2cal, this reflects the fact that the simulated Asian
monsoon is rather weak. In the case of ccm1cal, the
monsoon is as strong as in the other models but because
the simulated tropical climate is colder and drier in this
model there is probably less latent heat transport
towards the northern tropics than in other models.
Nevertheless, most of the models reproduce the ob-
served broad pattern of change with latitude, and this
suggests that it is reasonable to use the model results to
examine the simulated change in the position of the 0 1C
isotherm between LGM and present.
The PMIP models with prescribed SSTs (results
represented by solid lines) produce a depression of the
0 1C isotherm between LGM and present of 200–300 m
within the equatorial zone (10 1S–10 1N, Fig. 2, middle).
The simulated lowering of the isotherm decreases
southwards, tending to zero by 30 1S. Conversely, most
models indicate that the lowering of the 0 1C isotherm in
the northern tropics is greater than in the equatorial
band. AGCMs coupled to a mixed-layer ocean (results
represented by dashed lines) tend to produce colder
tropical SSTs than the fixed SST simulations (Fig. 2,
bottom and Pinot et al., 1999) and hence produce larger
tropical cooling and larger depressions of the 0 1C
isotherm. The larger the simulated cooling in tropical
SSTs, the larger the depression of the 0 1C isotherm (see
Fig. 2, bottom and Fig. 4, top, for averages over the
whole tropics). Thus, the simulated average depression
of the 0 1C isotherm in the tropics ranges from 250 m
(mri2fix, which produces a tropical cooling of ca 1 1C) to
more than 800 m (ccc2.0cal, which produces a tropical
cooling of ca 3.5 1C). The correlation coefficient between
the two variables (calculated using both fixed and
computed SST experiments) is 95%. The relationship

M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219
0
-200
0 degC isotherm altitude
(in m, LGM - CTRL)
-400
-600
-800
y = -89 +188 * x, R2 = 95%
-1000
-4 -3 -2 -1
(a) SST (in degC, LGM - CTRL)
250
200
slope m/degC
150
100
50
0 specific humidity fields (Fig. 5), and also the 200 hPa
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
(b) latitude (degN)
Fig. 4. Top: warmest month SST change in the tropics (30N–30S) vs.
mean change of the maximum altitude of the 0 1C isotherm. Bottom:
sensitivity of the maximum altitude of the 0 1C isotherm to the SST, in
m/1C (slope of the linear relationship between the anomaly in the
maximum altitude of the 0 1C isotherm and the warmest SST
anomaly). The results are given as a function of latitude, the linear
regression being computed for a 15 1 wide latitude band centred at the
given latitude.
between the average tropical ocean cooling of the
warmest month and the maximum freezing height
lowering from CTRL to LGM is, to first order, linear.
Regional differences in the elevation of the 0 1C
isotherm also appear to reflect regional differences in the
change in SSTs. We have examined the correlation
between these two variables for 12 latitude bands (where
the values for each latitude are calculated on the basis of
a 15 1 wide band centred on that latitude) using
latitudinal averages from all of the 17 PMIP models
(i.e. both fixed and calculated SST experiments). The
correlation between the two variables is always 484%.
However, the slope of the relationship varies with
latitude (Fig. 4, bottom). Broadly speaking, the eleva-
tion of the 0 1C isotherm decreases by ca 200 m with
every 1 1C reduction in SSTs in the southern hemisphere
tropics while in the northern hemisphere tropics, a 1 1C
reduction in SSTs produces a smaller (ca 125 m)
decrease in elevation. These values are close to the wet
adiabatic and dry adiabatic values respectively, reflect-
ing the fact that atmospheric lapse rates are expected to
be closer to the wet adiabatic in the predominantly
ARTICLE IN PRESS
207
gen2fix
oceanic conditions of the southern tropics and to the dry
mri2fix adiabatic in the land-dominated conditions of the
ugampfix
echam3fix northern tropics.
ccsr1fix
gen2cal
Nevertheless, the simulated changes in the position of
mri2cal the 0 1C isotherm in the northern tropics are larger than
ugampcal
ccc2.0cal
would be expected solely from consideration of the
ccm1cal changes in SSTs. The fixed SST experiments show
gfdlcal
ukmocal changes in the position of the 0 1C isotherm of between
200 and 500 m, while the calculated SST experiments
show changes of up to 1000 m in the northern tropics
(Fig. 2). We postulate that this reflects the importance of
0
atmospheric circulation (and specifically the Asian
monsoon circulation) in determining the location of
snowline in the northern hemisphere tropics. Specific
humidity at 200 hPa (upper troposphere) can be
considered as a signature of specific humidity in the
whole tropospheric column and is a good indicator of
the strength of the convective systems in the ITCZ and
the Asian monsoon. Here we show specific humidity in
summer (June, July, August) because this season
corresponds to the time of warmest temperatures in
the northern hemisphere warmest temperatures and the
climax of the Asian monsoon. The June–July–August
velocity potential fields (not shown), show that the
Asian monsoon is consistently weaker than today in all
the prescribed SST experiments for the LGM. This is
not true for all of the computed SST experiments. It
appears from the specific humidity anomalies (Fig. 5),
and also from the 200 hPa velocity potential fields, that
the location of the typical Asian monsoon circulation is
displaced relative to the modern situation in the
computed SST experiments. The interactions between
atmospheric circulation and SSTs do not necessarily
result in the weakening of the monsoon over southeast
Asia. However, the models which do show a large
decrease in specific humidity over southeast Asia are
those which have the largest depression in the 0 1C
isotherm north of 10 1N (e.g. ccm1cal and mri2cal,
Fig. 2). The weakening of the monsoon implies a
reduction of the heat and moisture transport inland. The
former implies a decrease in temperature over southeast
Asia. The latter implies a reduction of humidity during
the warmest months of the year and therefore an
increase in the absolute values of the lapse rate.
2.2. Changes in temperature and free atmospheric lapse
rates
We have shown that the maximum freezing height
simulated under LGM boundary conditions were lower
by 200–900 m compared to their modern counterparts.
Understanding these changes in terms of the forcing at
the surface (i.e. SSTs in the tropics) involves studying
the vertical structure of the atmosphere during the
month for which the freezing level is highest, i.e. during
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208 M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219

30
15 ukmo
0
-15
-30

30
echam3 15 ccm1
0
-15
-30

30
ccsr1 15 gfdl
0
-15
-30

30
ugamp 15 ugamp
0
-15
-30

30
mri2 15 mri2
0
-15
-30

30
gen2 15 gen2
0
-15
-30

30
ccc2.0 15 ccc2.0
0
-15
-30
-180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180 -180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180

-0.12 -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02

Fig. 5. 200 hPa (upper troposphere) specific humidity anomalies (in g/kg) between the LGM and the CTRL experiments for the boreal summer
season (June, July, August). Left-hand column: fixed SST experiments; right-hand column: computed SST experiments.

the warmest month. Changes in the zonal mean
temperature of the warmest month (LGM minus
control) as a function of latitude and altitude in the
fixed SST simulations are similar for all the models: the
cooling is smallest to the south (usually smaller than
1 1C) and at low levels and become gradually larger
upwards and northwards (Fig. 6, left-hand column). The
largest cooling (ca 4 1C) in the fixed SST simulations
therefore occurs near the 10 km level in the equatorial
region or the northern tropics. At the altitude of the
tropical glaciers, at around 5000 m, the temperature
changes range from smaller than 1 1C in the southern
tropics to 3 1C in the northern tropics. Thus, in the
prescribed SST simulations, the temperature changes are
indeed larger at higher altitudes than at the surface, but
the difference is only 1 to 1.5 1C. The mixed-layer
ocean models (with the exception of ugampcal) simulate
colder temperatures at the surface and in the upper
troposphere (Fig. 6, right-hand column) than the fixed
SST simulations. However, the difference between the
surface cooling and the cooling at 5000 m (about 2 1C) is
not significantly larger than in the fixed SST experi-
ments. This finding reinforces the idea that the mean
temperature changes at the altitude of the tropical
glaciers are largely controlled by the temperature
changes at the surface.
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M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219 209

10.0
8.0 ukmo
6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0

echam3 8.0 ccm1

6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0

ccsr1 8.0 gfdl

6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0

ugamp 8.0 ugamp

6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0

mri2 8.0 mri2

6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0

gen2 8.0 gen2

6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0
ccc2.0 8.0 ccc2.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-30 -15 30 15 0 -30 -15 30 15 0

-7.5 -7.0 -6.5 -6.0 -5.5 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0

Fig. 6. Changes in zonal mean temperature of the warmest month (LGM-CTRL) for the PMIP experiments with prescribed SSTs. Left-hand
column: fixed SST experiments; right-hand column: computed SST experiments.

Direct comparison of the changes in the warmest
month lapse rates (we have computed the lapse rates for
every latitude, altitude, and month and have selected,
for every latitude and altitude, the lapse rate of the
warmest month) provides a test of this idea. As was
inferred from the differences in the zonal mean
temperatures of the warmest month, the absolute value
of the free atmospheric lapse rate decreases for nearly all
models, in prescribed as well as in computed SST
experiments (Fig. 7). This decrease is of order 0.2 to
0.3 1C/km (ca. 4%), which is consistent with the
difference in the simulated cooling of around 1 1C
between the surface and an altitude of 5000 m. There are
two regions where the decrease in the free atmospheric
lapse rate of the warmest month is larger (ca 0.6 to
0.7 1C) than this average value: the northern tropics,
usually below 5000 m and the equatorial zone at
altitudes higher than 6000 m.
The simulated weakening of the Asian monsoon has a
strong effect on atmospheric humidity in the prescribed
SST experiments (Fig. 8). The specific humidity of the
warmest month decreases in the northern tropics around
15 1N and below 5000–6000 m. The width of the latitude
band in which this drying occurs is model-dependent,
but is larger than 101. The same behaviour can be
observed for relative humidity (not shown), though the
reduction in relative humidity is registered to somewhat
higher elevation than the reductions in specific humidity.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
210 M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219

10.0
8.0 ukmo
6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0

echam3 8.0 ccm1

6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0
ccsr1 8.0 gfdl
6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0
ugamp 8.0 ugamp
6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0
mri2 8.0 mri2
6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0
gen2 8.0 gen2
6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0
ccc2.0 8.0 ccc2.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-30 -15 30 15 0 -30 -15 30 15 0

-8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Fig. 7. Difference (LGM-CTRL) in the zonally averaged free atmospheric lapse rate of the warmest month (1C/km). The scale corresponds to this
difference multiplied by 10. Left-hand column: fixed SST experiments; right-hand column: computed SST experiments.

Specific humidity does not decrease in the zone where
the cooling is strongest (compare with Fig. 6) but rather
around 15 1N, consistent with our interpretation that
changes in the monsoon are responsible for this.
The situation is different for the computed SST
experiments. In these experiments (Fig. 8), the specific
humidity of the warmest month decreases over a much
wider range of latitudes. In the coldest models (ccm1cal,
ccc2.0cal), specific humidity decreases over the whole of
the tropics and there is no distinct signal associated with
changes in the monsoon in the zonal averages, although
some changes do appear in the 200 hPa boreal summer
specific humidity (Fig. 5). Although some of the
computed SST experiments do show a reduction in
the strength of the Asian monsoon, and a concomitant
reduction in specific humidity of the warmest month,
in most of the models the decrease in humidity is related
to the simulated decrease in tropical SSTs (which is
large compared to the CLIMAP data used to force the
fixed SST experiments). The SST-induced decrease in
humidity indicates that changes in the free atmosphere
could be as important as changes in the monsoon
in explaining changes in tropical lapse rates. However,
three-dimensional fields are necessary to investigate
the separate effects of SST cooling and monsoon
weakening.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219 211

10.0
8.0 ukmo
6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0
echam3 8.0 ccm1
6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0
ccsr1 8.0 gfdl
6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0

ugamp 8.0 ugamp

6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0
mri2 8.0 mri2
6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0
gen2 8.0 gen2
6.0
4.0
2.0
10.0
ccc2.0 8.0 ccc2.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-30 -15 30 15 0 -30 -15 30 15 0

-3.0 -2.75 -2.5 -2.25 -2.0 -1.75 -1.5 -1.25 -1.0 -0.75 -0.5 -0.25 0.0 0.25 0.5 0.75

Fig. 8. Difference (LGM-CTRL) in the zonally averaged specific humidity of the warmest month. Left-hand column: fixed SST experiments; right-
hand column: computed SST experiments.

The simulated patterns in the drying of the atmo-
sphere explain the changes in lapse rate plotted on
Fig. 7: those models that simulate a drier atmosphere
due to a weakened Asian monsoon (prescribed SST
models and ugampcal, mri2cal) simulate a steeper lapse
rate at altitudes lower than 6 km and north of 15 1N.
Models (ccm1cal, ccc2.0cal) that simulate a drier atmo-
sphere over the whole tropics, because of colder SSTs,
simulate a steeper lapse rate over most of the tropics for
all altitudes above 4 km.
In summary, the PMIP simulations show that to first
order, the simulated depression of the 0 1C maximum
isotherm is forced by the reduction in tropical SSTs.
However, there are two mechanisms that can amplify
the depression: (1) the reduction in tropical SSTs at the
LGM is responsible for a drier atmosphere, and
therefore slightly higher atmospheric lapse rates; (2)
when the Asian monsoon is weakened, as is the case in
the prescribed SST simulations and some of the
calculated SST simulations, then the lapse rate increases
in the northern tropics. The differences among the
various computed SST simulations (Fig. 2) also show
that there is considerable scope for regional differences
in snowline depression. The simulations can produce
a lowering of the 0 1C isotherm of up to 800 m in
the equatorial zone and southern tropics, and up to
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
212 M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219
1000 m in the northern tropics, consistent with the
estimates of large (ca. 1000 m) snowline lowering at
the LGM shown by observations in some regions. Thus,
the simulations support the idea that snowline changes
of this magnitude are physically plausible and consistent
with known boundary conditions for the LGM.
3. Results from a high-resolution atmospheric general
circulation model
3.1. The CCSR high-resolution model
The CCSR1 AGCM (Namaguti et al., 1997) was run
at T21 resolution (ca 5.625 1 in longitude and latitude) as
part of the PMIP LGM exercise. The same model has
recently been run using the PMIP boundary conditions
(with fixed CLIMAP SSTs) but at the much higher
resolution of T106 (ca 1.125 1 in longitude and latitude).
The simulation is 11 years long, and the averages used in
the present study are based on the last 10 years of the
experiment.
There are some differences in the formulation of the
model between the version used for the PMIP experi-
ments and the high-resolution version. The parameter-
isation of horizontal diffusion and the coefficient of
gravity-wave drag were changed between the two
versions of the model to correct a known overestimation
of precipitation at high latitudes and in order to ensure
model stability. The primary goal of the high-resolution
LGM simulations was to produce a sufficiently realistic
simulation of the ice-sheet mass balance for use in ice-
sheet modelling experiments, and for this reason the
albedo of the ice sheet was increased slightly in the
higher-resolution model compared to the lower-resolu-
tion version because this was found to produce a more
realistic ice-sheet mass balance for the LGM northern
hemisphere ice sheets. The orography is much better
60
30
0 0
-30
-60
-180 -120 -60 0 60 120
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Fig. 9. Representation of orography in the CCSR1 model at T21 and T106 resolution.
resolved in the high resolution model than in the low
resolution version (Fig. 9). Mountain chains, such as the
Andes, are much more sharply defined, while the
maximum altitude of mountain blocks like the Hima-
layas and the Tibetan Plateau is more realistic. The
maximum resolution of the Himalayas and the Tibetan
Plateau is o4000 m in the low resolution version of the
model, but is 45500 m in the high resolution version.
The higher resolution also means that there are more
grid points representing the tropical mountains. Thus, it
is possible to examine how air temperature varies along
the mountain slope. We use the results from the high-
resolution AGCM to examine both the geographical
pattern of the changes in the maximum altitude reached
by the 0 1C isotherm, and to compare along-slope lapse
rates and free atmospheric lapse rates in the regions for
which there are snowline reconstructions.
Three-dimensional climatological temperature and
specific humidity fields were available on a monthly
basis for our analyses. Thus, we have been able to
compute 0 1C isotherm altitude, free atmosphere air
temperature on altitude levels and free atmospheric
lapse rates on altitude levels on the full longitude–
latitude grid rather than just from zonal averages (as we
were forced to do with the PMIP experiments). This
allows us to determine whether there are large differ-
ences in behaviour within specific latitude bands, and
whether there are differences between free air lapse rates
and surface (or along-slope) lapse rates.
The high-resolution version of CCSR overestimates
the maximum altitude reached by the 0 1C isotherm by
ca 300 m compared to the NCEP Reanalysis data
(Kalnay et al., 1996) and therefore does not compare
as well with data as the T21 version (Fig. 10). This is
probably caused by the fact that parameterisations that
are important in the simulation of the tropical climate,
such as cloud convection, were not adjusted in the T106
version of the model. However, comparison of the
60
30
-30
-60
180 -180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180
2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219 213

6000
Control
ccsr1fix
5500 ccsr1hrfix
NCEP

Altitude(m) 5000

4500

4000

3500

3000
(a) -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

30
25

20

15

10

5
latitude

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30
-180 -120 -60 0 60 120
longitude

(b) 4200.0 4400.0 4600.0 4800.0 5000.0 5200.0 5400.0 5600.0 5800.0

24

18

12

6
latitude

-6

-12

-18

-24

-180 -150 -120 -90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90 120 150 180

longitude

(c) 4200.0 4400.0 4600.0 4800.0 5000.0 5200.0 5400.0 5600.0 5800.0

Fig. 10. The top panel shows the maximum altitude of the 0 1C isotherm in the CCSR1 low- (red line) and high-resolution (green line) control
simulations compared to the observed altitude derived from the NCEP Reanalysis data (black line). The altitude of the 0 1C isotherm is computed
from the zonally averaged temperature profiles. The lower panels show the spatial patterns of the maximum altitude of the 0 1C isotherm in the
NCEP Reanalysis data (middle) and the T106 control simulation (bottom). The average difference in the 0 1C isotherm altitude between the NCEP
Reanalysis data and the model (300 m) has been subtracted from the model results. The NCEP Reanalysis data appears in Fig. 3 but is repeated here
for ease of comparison.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
214 M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219
spatial patterns of the maximum altitude reached by the
0 1C isotherm in the high resolution model and in the
NCEP Reanalysis data suggests that the model repre-
sents the maximum over south-east Asia reasonably
well. The model also reproduces the longitudinal
patterns in the equatorial belt, with the 0 1C isotherm
occurring at a lower level over Africa than elsewhere in
the same latitude band. Thus, although the model
overestimates the maximum height reached by the 0 1C
isotherm in the tropics, it can be helpful to examine the
spatial patterns of its changes in the LGM simulation
(Fig. 10).
3.2. Regional patterns in the freezing height anomalies at
LGM
The high-resolution model produces noticeable re-
gional patterning in the magnitude of the change in the
0 1C isotherm (Fig. 11). Within the equatorial band
(10 1S–10 1N), the maximum elevation of this isotherm is
between 100 and 400 m lower than in the control
simulation, with smallest changes in the western Pacific
and largest changes over eastern equatorial South
America. In the southern tropics (35–10 1S), the
differences between the two simulations are larger: the
maximum freezing height is ca 300–400 m lower than
today over the Indian Ocean but 300 m higher than
today in the southwestern tropical Pacific. In the
northern tropics (10–35 1N) the variations are even
larger: the 0 1C isotherm is more than 500 m lower than
in the control simulation over the continents, and up to
800–900 m lower than today in parts of northeastern
Africa and tropical Asia. The land areas with the largest
changes in the maximum elevation of the 0 1C isotherm
(i.e. from the Middle East through China to the Sea of
Japan) correspond to regions over which the maximum
elevation of the 0 1C isotherm in the control simulations
is highest (Fig. 10). The decrease in freezing height is
also large over the northern tropical Atlantic (ca 800 m
lower than in the control) but the maximum freezing
height is ca 400 m higher than today over the tropical
Pacific.
The SST forcing (Fig. 12a) explains part of the
geographical variation in the change of the maximum
freezing height between the LGM and control simula-
tions: the regions where the maximum freezing height is
higher at LGM than today are associated with the
higher-than-present SSTs depicted by CLIMAP in the
Pacific (i.e. the Pacific warm pool). The large depression
of the maximum 0 1C isotherm over the northern
tropical Atlantic reflects the colder-than-present SSTs
in this region. However, a similar temperature anomaly
(around 6 1C) over Asia results in a 100–200 m larger
snowline depression. The greater magnitude of the
change over Asia appears to be related to changes in
the specific humidity of the air column (Fig. 12b). In the
African and Asian monsoon regions, specific humidity
at 200 hPa during summer (June, July, August) is
decreased at the LGM compared to present. This
decrease implies a steeper lapse rate at LGM (not
shown), which in turn helps to explain why the
depression of the freezing height is larger in these
regions than regions with a similar decrease in surface
temperature such as the northern tropical Atlantic.
Changes in atmospheric humidity over the Indian Ocean
between Madagascar and Australia are also larger than
might be expected given the local change in SSTs; again,
changes in atmospheric humidity appear to be con-
tributing to the simulated change in freezing height.
Thus, the conclusions drawn from the PMIP simula-
tions therefore remain valid in a higher resolution model
and when considering longitudinal variations: both SST
anomalies and atmospheric circulation changes have an
impact on the simulated snowline depression.
3.3. Free atmospheric lapse rate vs. along-slope lapse
rates
We capitalise on the availability of the high-resolution
model to examine the difference between free atmo-
spheric lapse rates and along-slope lapse rates. There are
several reasons why the free atmospheric lapse rate and
the lapse rate calculated along the slope of the
mountains could be different. For instance:
 The 2 m air temperature is a temperature of a layer
near the surface, always below the boundary layer.
Therefore the free atmosphere temperature at an
altitude z well above the surface could be different
from the 2 m air temperature at an adjacent point
whose surface is at altitude z simply because
boundary layer processes are taken into account in
the calculation of the temperature of the latter point.
 The surface types and snow cover variations along the
slope of a mountain can modify the energy balance at
the surface. This effect cannot be taken into account
in the computation of a free atmosphere temperature.
 The presence of a massif modifies the atmospheric
circulation and there can be large climatic differences
due to the exposure of the slopes to insolation and to
orographic winds.
The impact of these mechanisms on the vertical
variations of the temperature with altitude in the free
atmosphere or along the slope has not, to our knowl-
edge, been previously quantified in climate simulation
for the LGM.
We define seven tropical regions (Table 2), as
distinguished by Mark et al. (this volume) because they
have a large number of palaeo-snowline estimates, for
this analysis. For each region (Table 2) we plot the
warmest month 2 m air temperature in every grid cell as
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219
30
15
-15
-30
-180 -150 -120 -90 -60 -30
-900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400
Fig. 11. Change (LGM-CTRL) in the maximum altitude reached by the 0 1C isotherm in the CCSRt106 simulation.
a function of grid-cell altitude in both the control and
LGM simulations (Fig. 13). For each region the 2 m air
temperature decreases with increasing altitude, usually
in a linear manner. The change in 2 m air temperature
between the control and LGM simulations is different
from region to region. In some regions (e.g. Mt Jaya,
Bogota) there is no discernible difference in the 2 m air
temperature in the two simulations. In the Himalayas
and the Central Andes, there is a significant difference in
the warmest month 2 m air temperature at low atmo-
spheric levels and this difference is projected at higher
altitudes. In contrast, in the Rwenzori Mountains there
is a clear increase in the along-slope lapse rate between
LGM and present: 2 m air temperatures are similar at ca
500 m but there is a difference of more than 5 1C at
1500 m.
Although much improved compared to low resolution
models, the altitude of the highest grid boxes is generally
still not high enough for the temperature of the warmest
month to be near the freezing point in either of the
simulations, except for the Himalayas in the LGM run.
However, given that the relationship between 2 m air
temperature and altitude is generally linear, we have
computed along-slope lapse rates by linear regression
for all regions except Bogota (where the linear relation-
ship between altitude and temperature is weak). The
linear regression has been computed for altitudes larger
than a threshold to avoid the bias due to low-altitude
values. The threshold has been taken at 500 m for the
Central Andes, 250 m for Papua New Guinea, 300 m for
Mount Jaya, and 2000 m for the tropics as a whole.
These along-slope lapse rates can be compared to the
average of the free atmospheric lapse rates over the same
regions (Fig. 14).
Regional free atmospheric lapse rates are always
steeper over the continents than the average lapse rate
over the ocean (horizontal lines on Fig. 14). The along-
215
0 30 60 90 120 150 180
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
slope lapse rates for any one massif are not equal to the
free atmospheric value in the region nearby. In the
control simulations, the two lapse rates are relatively
close to each other for the regions of Rwenzori, Mount
Jaya, Papua New Guinea and the Himalayas (Fig. 14).
In other regions the along-slope lapse rates are
considerably lower than the free atmosphere lapse rates,
indicating that surface processes are operating.
The simulated change in atmospheric lapse rate
between LGM and present is usually larger over
continental regions than over the ocean, except over
the Rwenzori Mountains and the Central Andes where
the free atmospheric lapse rate is less at the LGM than
in the control. The anomalies between the LGM and
control lapse rates are also different from region to
region and the changes in the two lapse rates can differ
in sign. The most striking example is for the Rwenzori
mountains, for which the along-slope lapse rate steepens
from 6.2 to 10 1C/km, while the free atmospheric
lapse rate in the adjacent region and in the range of
altitudes from which we have computed the along-slope
lapse rate decreases by more than 1 1C/km. These
differences are hard to explain. Whether a given glacier
is more sensitive to the free atmospheric temperature or
to the temperature that could be inferred from the
along-slope lapse rate might be related to the character-
istics of the massif itself (a single mountain pointing out
in the free atmosphere vs. a mountain in a massif of
mountains of similar altitudes). Such phenomena should
be the subject of future work.
4. Discussion and conclusions
We have examined the mechanisms leading to changes
in summer freezing height (which we take as a surrogate
for snowline elevation) between the LGM and present,
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
216 M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219

30

15

-15

-30

-180 -150 -120 -90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90 120 150 180

-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
(a)

30

15

-15

-30

-180 -150 -120 -90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90 120 150 180

-0.12 -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02

(b)

Fig. 12. Top: difference (LGM-CTRL) in the lowest atmospheric level temperature of the warmest month; bottom: difference (LGM-CTRL)
in 200 hPa specific humidity for the boreal summer season (June-July-August), in g/kg.

Table 2 the difference between the fixed SST simulations and the
Regions for which the along-slope and the free atmospheric lapse rates
calculated SST simulations, show that the simulated
are compared
magnitude of tropical snowline lowering is determined
Region Abbreviation Longitudes Latitudes to first order by the overall magnitude of tropical
cooling at the surface. The correlation between the two
Iztaccihuatl — 104 1W, 94 1W 14 1N, 24 1N
Bogota — 84 1W, 64 1W 1 1S, 9 1N
variables over the tropics as a whole is 95% and remains
Central Andes Cen Andes 82 1W, 72 1W 15 1S, 5 1S high (480%) even when individual latitude bands are
Rwenzori — 25 1E, 35 1E 5 1S, 5 1N considered. This conclusion is supported by the fact that
Himalayas — 73.5 1E, 88.5 1E 27 1N, 37 1N Diaz and Graham (1996) have shown that under
Papua New Guinea PNG 140 1E,150 1E 12 1S, 2 1S modern climate conditions interannual changes in
Mount Jaya Mt Jaya 130 1E,144 1E 9 1S, 1 1N
Tropics (land only) Tropics 180 1E,180 1E 30 1S, 30 1N
freezing height are correlated with SSTs.
Several mechanisms can amplify the snowline depres-
sion. In the fixed SST simulations, additional snowline
as simulated by AGCMs that participated in the PMIP depression is linked to a decrease in the Asian monsoon
LGM exercise and by a high-resolution version of one of and an associated decrease in atmospheric moisture,
these models. The PMIP model results, and in particular which translates into a steeper lapse rate at these
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219 217

6000 -4
C Himalayas ctrl
5000 Iztaccihuatl CenAndes L Himalayas lgm
Altitude (m)

4000 -4.5 C CenAndes ctrl

free atmospheric lapse rate (degC/km)

L CenAndes lgm
3000 C Rwenzori ctrl
-5 Rwenzori lgm
2000 L
C C PNGuinea ctrl
1000 -5.5 C L L PNGuinea lgm
0 L L C C MtJaya ctrl
L MtJaya lgm
6000 -6 C L C Iztaccihuatl ctrl
L
5000 MtJaya Bogota L Iztaccihuatl lgm
C C
Altitude (m)

-6.5 L C Tropics ctrl

4000 L Tropics lgm
L
3000 C
-7
2000
1000 -7.5
0
6000 -8
-11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3
5000 PNG Himalayas
along slope lapse rate (degC/km)
Altitude (m)

4000
3000 Fig. 14. Along-slope lapse rate vs. free atmospheric lapse rate,
2000 computed for the warmest month over each of the seven selected
1000 tropical regions. The along-slope lapse rate has been computed by
0 linear regression between the 2 m air temperature and the altitude of
6000 the respective grid-box, for all points in each region. The correspond-
5000 Rwenzori Tropics ing free atmospheric lapse rate is the average of the free atmospheric
lapse rate over the same region and between the minimum and
Altitude (m)

4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Temperature (degC) Temperature (degC)
control
LGM
Fig. 13. 2 m air temperature of the warmest month plotted as a
function of the altitude of the corresponding grid point for the seven
tropical regions with LGM palaeo-snowline estimates and for the
whole tropics, over land.
latitudes. In the computed SST simulations, in which the
SST are generally colder, additional snowline depression
is related to a decrease in humidity throughout the
tropics. Examination of the results from a higher
resolution model confirms that the spatial pattern of
the simulated snowline depression is related to both SST
changes and to decreased humidity, especially in the
Asian monsoon region. Weakening of the monsoon
circulation results in a large regional lowering in the 0 1C
isotherm even though the change in SST is compara-
tively small in this sector.
The PMIP models show that the magnitude of the
depression of the 0 1C isotherm varies with latitude, with
changes of 200–300 m in the equatorial zone and up to
800 1000 m in the northernmost tropics. The high-
resolution model shows that there can be east-west
differentiation in the magnitude of the depression of the
0 1C isotherm within specific latitudinal bands. This is a
consequence of the fact that changes in monsoon
circulation, or other changes in atmospheric circulation,
produce changes in atmospheric humidity patterns that
amplify the primary response to SST changes. However,
this spatial heterogeneity is worth emphasising, in part
maximum altitudes of the points used to compute the along-slope lapse
rates. C stands for control and L for LGM results. The horizontal lines
indicate the average of the free atmospheric lapse rate (between 1000
and 6000 m) over the tropical ocean for the control in red and the
LGM in blue. The solid back line is the 1-1 line.
because earlier model-based analyses of LGM cooling
(e.g. Rind and Peteet, 1985; Pinot et al., 1999) have
tended to examine the response of the tropics as a whole
and, in part, because the synthesis presented by Mark et
al. (this volume) shows there is considerable spatial
heterogeneity in the magnitude of observed changes in
snowline. All of the simulations are capable of produ-
cing changes in snowline, as calculated from free
atmospheric temperature, of several hundred meters
(i.e. as large as the changes reconstructed from
observations in certain regions). Thus, models are
capable of producing changes in lapse rate as large as
shown by the palaeoenvironmental evidence—although
not necessarily in the same regions. Future analyses, and
comparisons of observed and simulated changes in
tropical snowlines, will therefore need to focus on the
physical mechanisms which result in specific regional
changes within the tropics.
Even though mountain ranges are better represented
in the high resolution model than in the PMIP
experiments, this resolution (T106) is not fine enough
to directly retrieve the altitude of the 0 1C isotherm
along the slope. However the high-resolution simulation
gave us the opportunity to compare along-slope lapse
rates to free atmospheric lapse rates. The two lapse rates
were found to differ considerably in the modern
simulation in certain regions. The changes in free
atmospheric and along-slope lapse rate between LGM
and modern are not constrained to be similar: at a
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
218 M. Kageyama et al. / Quaternary International 138-139 (2005) 202–219
regional scale, both the free atmospheric lapse rate and
the along-slope lapse rates do not necessarily steepen,
nor do they necessarily vary in the same direction. This
suggests that for some massifs, changes in along-slope
lapse rates may be more closely determining the
climate sensed by glaciers, and that the comparatively
large changes in along-slope lapse rates shown in
the simulations may contribute to the heterogeneity of
observed changes in snowlines at the LGM (Mark et al.,
this volume).
Our analyses are necessarily preliminary in nature,
limited as they are by the availability of archived model
output from the first set of PMIP simulations and by the
use of simulations with either prescribed SSTs or mixed-
layer ocean models which do not allow changes in ocean
circulation. However, our approach to analysing regio-
nal temperature and lapse rate changes can be used
when the fully-coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations of
the LGM, planned as part of the second phase of PMIP
(Harrison et al., 2002), become available in the near
future. Many more variables will be archived for
each experiment during the second phase of PMIP
(http://www-lsce.cea.fr/pmip2/) and thus it will be
possible to examine three-dimensional fields for all of
the variables used here. It will also be possible to
examine the relationship between interannual variability
in SSTs and freezing height, in an manner comparable
to the analyses of Diaz and Graham (1996) for modern
climate conditions. Such analyses, and detailed compar-
isons with observed data such as that presented by Mark
et al. (this volume) should provide new insights into the
mechanisms of tropical climate change and the extent to
which homeostatic mechanisms could limit the magni-
tude of tropical climate change.
Acknowledgements
This manuscript was stimulated by discussions at the
Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project
(PMIP) workshop on ‘‘Snowlines and Palaeoclimates
at the Last Glacial Maximum’’. The AGCM simulations
were also performed as part of PMIP; we would like to
thank our PMIP colleagues for making output from
these simulations available to the scientific community
through the PMIP database (http://www.lsce.cea.fr/
pmip/). The present analyses were partially funded
through an EU grant to the MOTIF (Models and
Observations to Test climate Feedbacks) project
(EVK2-CT-2002-00153). We thank Colin Prentice and
Gilles Ramstein for comments on an earlier draft of this
manuscript, and Chris Hewitt and an anonymous
reviewer for helpful comments on the subsequent
version. The figures have been drawn using the
python/CDAT software developed at PCMDI, with
the help of Jean-Yves Peterschmitt at LSCE and Charles
Doutriaux at PCMDI. This is LSCE contribution
number 1370.
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