R. Vázquez et al.

/ Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 373 (2019) 36–50 47

Table 5 phenomenon that has been documented during the evolution of TVC
Summary of the main features of the outputs shown on Figs. 4, 5, 6 and 7, obtained for the (Macías et al., 201; Macías et al., 2018). In fact, the City of Tapachula
eruptive scenario analysis.
was founded on top of the remains of ancient lahar deposits (Murcia
Scenario Simulation Max. Max. Max. runout Graphical and Macías, 2014). Remobilization of pyroclastic material could also
flow velocity distance output on be effective by the occurrence of floods caused by extreme hydromete-
depth (m/s) from the main figure
orological events as Hurricane Stan in 2005 that eroded the riverbed of
(m) summit (km)
the Coatan river and exposed past and historic flood deposits in the out-
LI ADV220 5 32.6 5.1 4
skirts of the City of Tapachula (Murcia and Macías, 2009). This type of
NETACV220 10 42.9 3.8 4
NWTACV220 10 48 5.0 4 secondary perils could be disastrous for the people living at the low-
SCHJV218 10 48.6 6.1 4 lands, that is the most populated zone in the surroundings of the vol-
CHJV218 5 21.7 4.3 4 cano. An event of this nature occurred 1950 yr B.P. (30 BCE–80 CE)
TACV218 5 41.9 5.3 4 when a Peleean type eruption of San Antonio volcano produced BAFs
SWTACV218 10 44.8 5.1 4
SANV112 5 70.7 8.4 6
that dammed the Cahoacan and Mixcun rivers generating lahars that
SANV212 5 70.5 8.4 4, 6 flooded the Izapa prehispanic settlements causing its abandonment
SANV312 5 69.2 8.4 6 (Macías et al., 2010; Macías et al., 2018).
MI ADV320 30 42.5 7.3 5
NWTACV320 30 54.8 6.2 5
6. Conclusions
NETACV320 30 45.9 5.3 5
CHJV318 30 29.9 5.4 5
SCHJV318 30 47 6.7 5 The hazard zonation map obtained for BAFs of the TVC is based on
SWTACV318 30 47.6 8.4 5 the known stratigraphy of the complex, which includes eight dome de-
TACV318 10 54.5 6.4 5 struction events during the past 42,000 years. For this assessment, we
SANV312 30 68.8 9.3 5
performed two sets of numerical simulations using the TITAN2d code.
SANV112 10 68.2 8.5 6
SANV212 10 69.1 8.7 6 One was carried out to mimic past BAF deposits of the complex and
HI TACV223 30 44.4 5.8 7 the other to forecast the hazards of future BAFs, size-comparable to
TACV220 30 50.9 7.2 7 the ancient ones, but considering the actual morphology of the volcano.
TACV218 30 56 8.1 7
From this analysis, we obtain: a zonation based on the morphology of
TACV212 30 74.2 9.2 7
SANV112 30 68.9 9.9 6 the complex flanks that are linked to the surface friction angles applied
SANV212 30 69.6 10.5 6 for the simulations that best fitted the deposits, and hazard maps from
SANV312 30 69.6 10.7 6 the scenario-based simulations. The proposed hazard maps consider
Note: The nomenclature used for the name of the simulations express: the name of the the smallest and the biggest simulated volumes used for each scenario
source-point, then the volume value of the simulated piled, and finally the basal friction (low, medium, and high). So, based on these maps we finally propose a
angle used for the simulation (please see Table 3 for these values). BAF hazard zonation map that integrates the results from the three sce-
narios proposed, considering the 1.5 × 106, 15 × 106 and 150 × 106 m3
in the past (Macías et al., 2010). Nonetheless, the last eruptive activity of of volume values. This map shows the maximum area covered by BAFs
Chichuj volcano dates back to the Pleistocene (i.e. ~24,000 yrs), hence that could be originated from the four volcanic structures of the complex
its potential for future activity is uncertain. Reactivation of San Antonio, at each eruptive scenario. In the LI scenario, small volume dome collapse
Ardillas dome, or the southern crater rim of Tacaná would produce events could generate flows that may reach up to 8 km from the summit
flows towards Mexican territory affecting ~2100 inhabitants in the red (red zone) area inhabited by ~6000 people. Therefore, special attention
zone, ~4500 in the pale-rose zone and ~11,200 in the yellow zone must be given to any precursor activity of the complex in order to under-
(INEGI, 2010). Another possibility for the generation of BAFs atop the take the necessary tasks to reduce the volcanic risk and a volcanic disaster.
complex could be the extrusion of a new dome and lava flows. All haz- Finally, even though a more robust analysis of the stratigraphy of the
ard zones of the TVC enclose the main rivers and streams that drain the TVC needs to be fulfilled in the future to better constrain the hazard map
complex as the Coatán, Cahoacán, and Suchiate. Therefore, damming of of the complex, the model-based hazard analysis presented here repre-
these rivers will promote the generation of syn-eruptive lahars a sents a considerable advance in understanding the flow behavior of

Fig. 8. Hazard maps for the simulated BAFs at the TVC that summarize the maximum inundation areas of the smallest and biggest volume simulated for each eruptive scenario. Simulations
were run from all the points of Table 3. Hazard maps of A) Flows with volume ranging from 0.5 × 106 and 3.0 × 106 m3 (red and pale-rose colors, respectively) from the LI scenario. B) Flows
of the MI scenario with volumes ranging from 10 × 106 to 30 × 106 m3. C) Flows of the HI scenario with volumes ranging from 50 × 106 to 150 × 106 m3.