Reference: Mr.

Richard Li
DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Probability - an index which measures the
chance or likelihood that an event resulting
from a statistical experiment will occur.
 Statistical Inference - process of using
sample information to draw conclusions
about certain characteristics of a population
that is under study.

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 The study of probability and statistical
inference aids in the translation of sample
information into something conclusive or
inconclusive about the scientific system
under study. It allows us to quantify the
strength or “confidence” that we have in our
conclusions. More importantly, the
conclusion drawn about the scientific system
being studied helps an individual in the
decision-making process.

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Experiment - a process which generates an
observation or a measurement commonly
referred to as raw data or information.
 An experiment is considered to be a random
or chance process if:
1. all possible outcomes are known before the
experiment is performed
2. no particular outcome can be predicted with
certainty before the performance of the trial or
experiment

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Sample Space (S) - a list of all possible
outcomes of an experiment defined in such a
way that exactly one of the elements will
occur.
 Sample Point (x) - refers to each possible
outcome or element in the sample space

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Three Ways of Defining a Sample Space:
1. Listing/Roster Method - done by enumerating all the
elements of the sample space
2. Defining Property Method - done by choosing a
property or characteristic common to all sample
points and then using this common characteristic to
define the sample space
3. Tree Diagram - uses a “tree” to express the sequence
of events of an experiment in chronological order.
 Note: The way by which the sample space is
defined is depends on how an individual defines
the sample points of the experiment.

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Experiment 1 : Tossing three coins
 Sample Space : (HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT,
 TTH, TTT)
 Experiment 2 : Throwing 2 dice
 Sample Space : (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) (2,1)
(2,2) (2,3)
 ...(6,6)

 Experiment 3: Draw 2 cards from a deck of playing cards.

 Sample Space : Quite easily imagined.
 Partial enumeration of the event =(both cards are of the same
suit)
 (A2), (A3) (A4) (A5) ……. (A10),(AJ),
(AQ)(AK)
 (A2), (A3) (A4) (A5) ……. (A10) (AJ) (AQ)
(AK) & so on.

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
1. Define the sample space of the following
experiments:
a) Toss a coin two times
b) Toss a coin, roll a die, then toss a coin
c) A product comes out of a production line either as
defective or non defective. Two products are
inspected, one at a time.
2. Two ordinary dice are tossed and we define the
sample points (denoted by x) to be the sum of
the numbers turning up. Use the defining
property method to define the sample space.
Define the sample space if sample points are
defined as the difference between the numbers
turning up

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Event - subset of a sample space
 Simple Event - an event which consists of
only one outcome
 Compound Event - an event which consists of
more than one outcome and may be
decomposed into simple events

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Roll a die and observe the number appearing on
the upper face. The following are some of the
possible events:
◦ A - event that an odd number appears
◦ B - event that an even number appears
◦ C - a “1” appears
◦ D - a “2” appears
◦ E - a “3” appears
◦ F - a “4” appears
◦ G - a “5” appears
◦ H - a “6” appears
 Events A & B are known as compound events
while events C to H are simple events.

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
1. A U B - the set whose elements belong to A
or B or both; referred to as the union
between events A and B
◦ includes the possibility that only event A will
happen or only event B will happen, or both A and B
will happen at the same time.
◦ Terms used to imply union of events:
 either event A or event B will occur
 one or the other will occur
 at least one of the two events will occur
 one of the two events will occur
 a/an event will occur

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
2. A  B - set whose members are elements of
both A and B; referred to as the intersection
between A & B
◦ means that both events will happen at the same
time
◦ Terms used to imply intersection of events:
 both A and B will happen
 neither event A nor B will happen (intersection of the
complements)
◦ Note: If two events cannot happen at the same
time, then they are said to be mutually exclusive
events or disjoint events.

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
3. The complement of A, A’, is the set of all
elements not found in A. A’ represents the
event that A will not happen.
4. If we let S be the sample space, then the
complement of S (S’) is known as the
impossible event/empty set/null set.
◦ S’ = ;   S = S

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
◦ A Venn Diagram is a picture in which the
universal set U is represented by points in simple
(usually circular) regions in the rectangle. Each
circular region is labelled by a symbol
designating the set for which it stands. The Venn
Diagram was first employed by Leonhard Euler
(1707 - 1783) and subsequently named after
John Venn (1834 - 1923).
◦ Venn Diagram representations of the union bet. 2
events, intersection bet. 2 events, mutually
exclusive events, and the complement of an event

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 A∩B  A’
A B
A’
A

 AUB  A∩B=Ø
A B A B

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
A B

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Venn Diagrams for more than 3 sets

4 sets 5 sets
Source: http://www.combinatorics.org/Surveys/ds5/VennGraphEJC.html
Reference: Mr. Richard Li
DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Counting Theory - a set of techniques used for
identifying the total number of possibilities of a
statistical experiment without enumerating the
elements of the sample space
◦ Multiplication Rule - If an experiment can be performed
in n1 ways on trial 1, and for each of these n1 ways, it can
be performed in n2 ways on trial 2, and for each of these
n2 ways, it can be performed in n3 ways on trial 3 and so
on for k trials, then the total number of ways (nT) by
which we can perform the entire experiment is:
nT = n1 x n2 x n3 x ...... x nk

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
◦ Addition Rule - If k outcomes are mutually
exclusive, and outcome 1 can be performed in m1
ways, outcome 2 can be performed in m2 ways, and
so on for k outcomes, then the total number of
outcomes is given by:
mT = m1 + m2 + ...... + mk

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
1. Five chips numbered 1 to 5 are in a container.
You are asked to get 3 chips from the
container, one at a time. In how many ways can
this experiment be performed or how many
possible outcomes are there if sampling is done
without replacement? with replacement?
2. Consider the same problem as in # 1 above but
this time, you are to get only one chip from the
container. If the number on the chip is even,
you have to roll a die. On the other hand, if the
number on the chip is odd, you have to toss a
coin. How many possible outcomes are there in
this experiment?

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
3. Three boys and three girls are to sit in 6
chairs arranged in a straight line. How
many seating arrangements are possible if:
a) there are no constraints?
b) two girls quarrelling over one guy refuse to sit beside
each other?
c) if boys and girls are to alternate?
d) The 3 boys and 3 girls actually form 3 couples. How
many seating arrangements are possible if couples
should sit beside each other?
e) How many arrangements are possible if 3 people
prefer to be seated together?

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
4. Given the numbers 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
a) How many 3 digit numbers can be formed without
repetition?
b) How many of these 3 digit numbers are even? How
many are odd?
c) How many of these numbers are greater than 342?
d) How many of the numbers greater than 342 are
even?
e) How many 3 digit numbers can be formed with
repetition?

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Simple Permutation - an ordered
arrangement of distinct objects
 Symbol: nPr
◦ where n = the total number of distinct objects to be
arranged
◦ r = number of objects to be taken from n
 Formula: n
nPr = --------
(n-r)!

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 In how many ways can you arrange the 5
letters A, B, C, D and E if you take:
1. 2 letters at a time?
2. 3 letters at a time?
3. 4 letters at a time?
4. all letters at the same time?

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Simple Combination - an arrangement of
distinct objects without regard to order
 Symbol: nCr
 Formula: n!
nCr = -----------
r! (n-r)!

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Consider 3 letters A, B and C. How many
combinations of 2 letters are possible?

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Stationary Circular Permutation -
arrangement of objects in a circle
 Technique: In order to arrange objects in a
circle, it is important to have a reference
point. This is done by “fixing” one of the
objects.
 Symbol: Pnc read as “permutation of n objects
in a circle”
 Formula: Pnc = (n-1)!

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
1. In how many ways can we arrange four boys
in a round table?
2. In how many ways can we arrange 3 boys
and 3 girls in a circular table if:
a) 2 boys hate each other and would not want to sit
beside each other?
b) boys and girls are to alternate?
c) the 3 boys and 3 girls form 3 couples and they
are to sit beside each other?

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Movable Circular Permutation - arrangement
of movable objects in a circle such as beads
of a necklace and bracelet
 Technique: It is important to divide into two
since it can be turned over therefore
clockwise and counterclockwise
arrangements are the same.
 Symbol: Pnc read as “permutation of n objects
in a circle”
 Formula: Pnc = (n-1)!
2
1. In how many ways can 8 differently colored
beads be threaded on a string?
2. In how many ways can 4 red beads, 6 blue
beads, and 4 green beads be arranged on a
necklace?
14−1 !
=
2 x 4!6!4!
 Arrangement of Similar Objects
◦ Objective: To find the number of permutations of n
“objects” all taken at the same time; n1 of which are
of type 1, n2 of which are of type 2, ..., nk of which
are of type k, where:

 Formula:

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
1. In how many ways can we arrange 5 objects, 3 of which are A
and 2 are B?
In this problem, we have n=5; n1=3 and n2=2
Enumerating the total number of ways, we have the following:
AAABB BABAA
ABABA BBAAA 5!
AABAB BAAAB Ans. = 10 ways or ----- = 10 ways
AABBA BAABA 3! 2!
ABBAA ABAAB
2. Given a true-false exam, if you know that 6 of the items have
true as answer and 4 have false as answer, in how many ways
could you answer the exam?
10!
Ans. = ---------- = 210 ways
6! 4!

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Partitioning of n objects into cells
◦ Objective: To find the number of permutations of n
“objects” all taken at the same time; n1 of which are
to be placed in cell 1, n2 of which are to be placed
in cell 2, ..., nk of which are to be placed in cell k
where:

 Formula:

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 In how many ways can 4 people occupy 2 rooms if 2
people are to occupy each room?
4!
Ans. = ------- = 6 ways
2! 2!
 What if there are no constraints?
Room 1 Room 2
Case 1: 1 3 4!/1!3! = 4 ways
Case 2: 2 2 4!/2!2! = 6 ways
Case 3: 3 1 4!/3!1! = 4 ways
Ans. = 14 ways

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
Let: A - a particular event in the sample space
P(A) or PA - probability that event A will
occur
 Axiom 1: 0  PA  1
 Axiom 2: PA = 1 is the certain event or the
probability of the entire sample space.
 Axiom 3: PA = 0 is the improbable event.
 Axiom 4: If the probabilities of events in the
sample space are added, the result should
be unity.

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
Ways of Measuring Probability
1. Classical Concept - the probabilities of events
can be known even w/o data gathering.
- used in classical experiments such as the
rolling of a die or the tossing of a coin.

 where:
n(A) - subset of the sample space pertaining
to event A
N - total sample space

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 From experiment 1, if we denote event
 A= “all coins turn out heads”, then P(A)=1/8.

 From experiment 2, if we denote event

 B = “The sum of the two die is 2”, then
 P(B) = 1/36.

 From experiment 3, if we denote event

 C =”A black jack occurs. (an Ace and a 10 or
court card)”, then P(C )= 64 /1326 or 0.0483

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 A coin is tossed 5 times. What is the
probability that:
a) exactly 3 heads will occur?
b) at least 2 heads will occur?

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
Ways of Measuring Probability
2. Relative Frequency - makes use of historical
data or survey results to determine
probabilities.

where:
fA – frequency of occurrence of A
fT - total number of observations
3. Subjective Assessment - an expert in the field
gives an educated guess of the probability.

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
1. P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)
◦ probability that at least one of the 2 events will occur (A
only, B only, both A & B)
where:
P(AB) - probability that both A and B will happen at
the same time
P(A) - includes the possibility that event B will happen
P(B) - includes the possibility that event A will happen
 From the above definition of P(AUB), it follows that:
P(AUBUC) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) + P(C) - P(AC) -
P(BC) + P(ABC)

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
2. P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) if A and B are mutually
exclusive events.
◦ It follows that: P(A1UA2UA3U ... Ak) = P(A1) + P(A2) +
P(A3) + ... + P(Ak) if all events are mutually exclusive
3. P(A’) = 1 - P(A)
◦ probability that event A will not happen

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 From the Venn Diagram, the probability of
the entire sample space can actually be
expressed as:
P(Sample Space) = P(AB’) + P(A’B) +
P(AB) + P(A’B’)

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Contingency Table - a tool used to facilitate
the calculation of probabilities involving two
events.
B B’ Total
--------------------------------------
A P(AB) P(AB’) P(A)
A’ P(A’B) P(A’B’) P(A’)
--------------------------------------
Total P(B) P(B’) 1

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 In an office, there are 2 secretaries. The
probability that secretary 1 is present in any
given day is 92% while the probability that
secretary 2 is present in any given day is 98%.
The probability that both will be present in a
given day is 91%. In a given day, what is the
probability that:
a) either secretary 1 or secretary 2 is present
b) neither secretary 1 nor secretary 2 is present
c) only secretary 1 is present
d) a secretary is not available to do a job
e) exactly one secretary is absent

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
Conditional Probability - probability that an
event will occur given that some other event
has already occurred.
◦ serves to limit or reduce the sample space
◦ Symbol: P(A/B) read as “probability of A given B”
 Formula:
P(AB)
P(A/B) = --------------
P(B)

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Roll a die twice.
a) What is the probability of getting a 4?
b) What is the probability of getting a 4 given that
the other die shows a 5?

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 From the conditional probability formula:
P(AB)
 P(A/B) = -------  P(AB) = P(B) * P(A/B)
P(B)
P(AB)
 P(B/A) = --------  P(AB) = P(A) * (B/A)
P(A)
 P(AB) = P(A) * P(B) if 2 events are independent
of each other, meaning, the probability of
occurrence of event B is not affected by the
probability of occurrence of event A and vice-
versa.

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 Instead of being concerned with deducing the
consequences arising from a given
hypothesis, Reverend Thomas Bayes
concentrated on making hypotheses from the
observation of the consequences. Normally,
we are always interested in finding the
P(effect/cause). Bayes’ theorem, on the other
hand, tries to find the P(cause/effect).

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering
 There are 3 bins containing red and green
pens. Bin 1 contains 4 red pens and 2 green
pens. Bin 2 has 2 red pens and 3 green pens
while bin 3 has 6 red pens and 1 green pen.
A red pen was obtained. What is the
probability that the red pen obtained was
from bin 2?

Reference: Mr. Richard Li

DLSU Gokongwei College of Engineering