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Politics & The Nation: This Graphic
Politics & The Nation: This Graphic
International
Can India race ahead China? What could possibly slowdown China?
o China is largely seen as having raced past India in the in the economic
sphere because of its authoritarian advantage. Democracies don't permit
policy framework changes that quickly as can be implemented in authoritarian
systems. Are there any reasons to suspect that the Chinese advantage will
not last longer? Yes, says Professor Jagdish Bhagwati of Columbia
University. Look at his reasoning:
o First, while authoritarianism can accelerate reforms, it can also be a serious
handicap. In a top-heavy system, growth paths can become unpredictable,
and thus subject to volatility.
o As growth accelerates, political aspirations are aroused. Will the Chinese
authorities respond to them with ever greater repression, as they have with
dissidents and Falun Gong, creating discord and disruption, or will they
accommodate new popular demands by moving to greater democracy?
o China’s authoritarian politics means that it cannot profit from the innovations
that depend on software, as that is an instrument through which dissent can
flourish and become subversive of total control. As one wit has observed, the
PC (personal computer) and the CP (Communist Party) do not go together.
o Finally, China’s growth must continue to depend on its exploitation of external
markets, which makes it vulnerable in a world that is increasingly making
democracy and human rights a central preoccupation. In such a world,
continued hassles and hiccups for Chinese exports can be confidently
expected.
o Economic factors also militate against Chinese prospects. China was clearly
able for many years to exploit a “reserve army of the unemployed” à la Karl
Marx – to grow rapidly without facing a labor-supply constraint, so that capital
accumulation would not run into diminishing returns. But now, given China’s
one-child policy and lack of adequate infrastructure (including housing) in
rapidly growing areas, labor is getting scarce and wages are rising. In
economic jargon, the supply curve of labor was flat but is now sloping
upward, so that rapidly increasing demand for labor resulting from rapid
growth is driving up wages. That means that China is beginning to “rejoin the
human race” as capital accumulation meets scarcer labor and growth slows.
o By contrast, India has a far more abundant supply of labor, as well as a more
favorable demographic profile, so that, as India’s investment rate increases,
labor will not be a constraint. India will thus become the new China of the past
two decades.
o Besides, in contrast to China, where economic reforms were quicker and
more complete, India still has a way to go: privatization, labor-market reforms,
and opening up the retail sector to larger, more efficient operators are all
pending – and will give a further boost to India’s growth rate once they are
implemented.
US to reintroduce estate duty
o America’s ‘death tax’, which was repealed in 2010, is set to be introduced in
the new year. Formally called the estate tax, it is levied on inheritance before
it is passed on from one generation to the next. The tax was introduced in
1916 and has been in force ever since. The brief window in 2010 was the only
exception.
o Under new laws being passed by the Obama administration, the first $5
million in value of any individual’s estate is tax-free, but all value above this
figure is taxed at 35%. The tax will kick in from January 1.
o However, tax experts feel that there are ways to minimize estate duty. They
suggest that NRIs could divest their properties in the US by gifting smaller
quantities rather than giving all at one go — gift tax is exempt up to $1 million.
This could reduce the amount of estate tax considerably.
o Most developed countries like the UK or France also have estate duty, in one
form or another.