SECOND MID TERM

PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS

MANAGEMENT

AREESHA MEMON (013-17-0122), BBA-VI-C

Submitted to: Dr. Naveed Wassan
QUESTION: 01
1) AVERAGE FORECASTING METHOD

2) MOVING AVERAGE FORECASTING METHOD

3) EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD:

4) COMPARE THE VALUES OF MAD AND MSE:

In average forecasting method, mean absolute deviation is 36 and mean squared error is 2377.
In moving average forecasting method, mean absolute deviation is 33 and mean squared error is
1709.
In exponential smoothing forecasting method, mean absolute deviation is 44 and mean squared
error is 2886.
We found the lowest error through moving average method, so moving average method is the
best method among all, and the second best method is average forecasting method.
Exponential method is not so good in this case because it shows the highest error.
 5) SEASONALITY:

Hence, this graph shows that there are seasonal peaks in donations because in the fourth quarter donations
goes up and in the first quarter, donations goes down. So, we can say that most of the people give some
portion of their yearly savings to donations in the last quarter of the year.
Comment on forecasting methods:
The forecasting method used in part “A” and part “C” is less accurate method because it has the higher
error as compared to part “B” hence, we can say that the estimated forecast of moving average method
was most accurate.

QUESTION: 02

Concepts that are necessary for TQM and their Relationship with Deming’s
14 points:
Following are TQM concepts:
 Continuous improvement
 Six sigma
 Employee empowerment
 Benchmarking
 Just-in-time (JIT)
 Taguchi concepts
 Knowledge of TQM tools
 Above concepts are totally relating to the Deming’s 14 points, because they
talk about the improvement of quality and products and the first point of
effective TQM is all about continuous improvement. Some of the Deming’s
14 points are relating to the employee empowerment one is training because
it will empower the employees to achieve organizational goals in a better
way. Others are emphasize leadership, drive out fear, and stop haranguing
workers, these all points will help to increase employee empowerment.
Some points are also related to six-sigma because in this they are talking
about to remove barriers in work and build the quality into product, stop
depending on inspections to catch the problems, and six sigma is also a six
standard deviation which deals with the quality control from manufacturing
to product and product to service. As Taguchi concept emphasizes on
research and development so it is related to one of the 14 points that talks
about to institute a vigorous program of education and self-improvement and
it put everybody in company to work and research on transformation.
Benchmarking is also there, because Deming is talking about quality check
mark, so that can be the benchmark. It also relates to JIT because it talks
about the minimum inventory and better flow in production that will make
the quality of products much better so that customers will be delighted.
Hence, all of the 14 points of Deming are totally relating to the 7 concepts of
total quality management (TQM).

QUESTION: 03
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT SYSTEM:

Following are the 9 steps of product development system:

 Idea generation
 Idea screening
 Ability
 Customer requirements
 Functional specifications
 Product specifications
 Design Review
 Test market
 Introduction
 Evaluation

The product which I have selected for the product development system is S10 PLUS.

1) IDEA GENERATION
 For idea generation I shall be utilizing basic internal and external SWOT analysis, as well as
current marketing trends, so that the product which I am launching should be different from the
competitors, in terms of price and quality. And I will search for the measures that I should take
in order to get high return on investment.

2) IDEA SCREENING:
As in the first step many ideas are generated that what should I launch, so in this step, I will
thoroughly scan the idea and select one idea that is the best one.

3) ABILITY:
In this step we will see the ability that whether all the materials which I want to use in the
product are accessible, available and affordable or not. And all the technicians, designers and
staff members who will be finalizing the product are available or not. If the resources will be not
available so I’ll jump to the first step again and will generate another idea.

4) CUSTOMER REQUIREMENTS:
In this third step I will start searching for the customers who are anti-apple persons and they
want a better version of android phones, I will take surveys from different group of people from
different places in order to get an idea about what things are required by the customers, or else
I will make a poll on social media and will ask customers to tell their requirements related to an
android phone.

5) FUNCTIONAL SPECIFICATIONS:
I will specify the functions of the new android mobile according to the customer’s requirements
and will improve this new model as compare to the previous model i.e. S9 plus, all the features
which were not in S9+ such as the RAM will be more than S9, there will be three cameras in s10
while in s9 there were only 2 cameras.

6) DESIGN REVIEW:
I will review the design in a detail, and try to make it better as compared to the previous model.
As in S9+ many of people were complaining that it is heavy phone, so now I would try to make it
lighter and easy to carry. And now a days, people are not demanding phones which are so big
and not fitting in pocket, so I will make its size according to the customer’s demand.

7) TEST MARKET:
In this step, I will not launch the product into market, but I will arrange small groups of
customers, who are very loyal to our brand and will form test panels of specialized technicians,
and the product will be tested in different situations, in terms of battery that how much time it
remains. And if any error is occurring in software so it will be again reviewed and all the
problems which will be identified in testing would be corrected.

8) INTRODUCTION:
If in the 7th step no any problem is detected so the product will be introduced in to the market
where the customers can buy the product.
 9) EVALUATION:
THIS is the last step which is also known as the post purchase behavior of customers, in which
they will evaluate that whether the product is meeting their requirements or not. And are they
satisfied or not.

QUESTION: 04
How can Continental Biscuits Ltd Production Facility at Sukkur improve operations and reduce cost by
using Manufacturability and Value Engineering?

Continental Biscuits Ltd production facility at Sukkur Can improve operations and reduce cost by
manufacturing and value engineering

 Embrace technology
 Outsourcing
 Shop around for better rates
 Telecommute
 Pay invoices early or on time
 Identify inefficiencies
 Cancel unused services
 Go green

By doing all these things Lu continental biscuits Ltd Can improve their operations and reduce costs
because if they are building a software so it will reduce the cost and also it will be improving the
operations and if some of the operations they are outsourcing so it will save their time and improve the
efficiency. They should be working with different vendors so that if one supplier is charging high costs so
they can bargain. They should allow their team to telecommute because it will reduce cost. Many
vendors will offer discounts if invoices are paid on time. They should try to identify the in efficiencies
and try to cope up with the problems. Pore through their variable costs and identify services that are no
longer been used by them. If they have an office space, try to make it as green as possible. Such as use
solar plates in-spite of electricity.