Analysis decision making communication of Thirteen Days Movie

Decision making traps:

1- Estimating & forecasting

It is regency to adhere to initial forecasts or estimates regardless of new information. The

example from movie is when Foreign Minister Dean said: "If we allow the entry of nuclear
weapons into the country, an ally of the Soviet Union, the results will be diplomatic, Now we
must get rid of the missiles in any form". Here he predicted that weapons would enter and a
decision could be made that would backfire and that everyone should focus and not predict
what would happen a lot. The trap is when we get too locked into our original estimations and
forecasts, unwilling to change when new information becomes available. We have to hold our
early estimations with an open hand always seeking new information so we can confirm or
adjust our forecast if initial conditions change.

2-Framing

When decisions are based on the language used to describe and explain ideas. The example is
Bobby said to the person called Bob: "There has to be another solution. Give me it even if it's
crazy, silly or inappropriate. Give it to me." Here the way his words affected the debate was
looking for alternatives or solutions that might harm them, also narrow framing may trap us,
preventing us from recognizing or considering valuable alternatives that could help us solve the
problem at hand

3-Anchoring

When considering a decision, we give a disproportionate weight to the first information we

receive. The example is when the president addressing the political advisor said: "Sometimes I
wish, even for a moment, I was not in this position." He said these words because of the heavy
load on him in decision-making and may be fateful. The problem comes when we give unequal
weight to this initial idea. That's the anchoring trap, you get anchored too firmly to the first idea
or solution you hear. And it can distort your thinking by preventing you from fully considering
other ideas that come up later.

4-Confirming evidence

This cognitive bias encourages us to seek out information that supports our existing point of
view, while avoiding information that contradicts it. The example is when one of the warplanes
was eliminated, the president asked: "First confirmation that it was not an accident". Here he
wanted to gather enough evidence to make sure the story was true in order not to make a
wrong decision. Most problems require us to gather data or figures or evidence so we can make
an informed decision, also it can take a lot of time to do the necessary due diligence to make a
wise decision.

Hidden Traps:

1-Advocacy 

When the political advisor called and told the commander not to tell the other party about
what happened and when the commander went to the presenter, he said to him: Did anyone
shoot you, and the commander replied to him? No, the task was easy. Here we conclude that
the leader does not want to inflate matters and arguing for our positions, deflecting criticism,
and down-playing the shortcomings of our ideas, magnifying the deficiencies of others.

2-Inquiry

The president's discussions with all members revolved around constructive criticism, he was
criticized in a way that does not offend them, stating the reason and after deep reflection. We
should take alternative method where you carefully consider a variety of opinions, cooperate
with others to figure out the best ideas, and engage in constructive critique, rather than
suppressing descent.

Practices for making better decisions:

1-Multiple alternatives

It is looking at the ideas and possibilities. In the movie after the president heard all the views of
the members, he put solutions and alternatives that might contribute to the service and
protection of the people, and he addressed a speech saying :’’stop offensive reinforcement
“then order the treatment or increase of surveillance and consider any nuclear missile against
any country is considered an attack by Soviet Union. The president use this way to expose the
flaws that might be not be readily apparent and to surface the benefits you might not have
initially considered and don't start evaluating a plan or a solution until you have discussed a
sufficient number of alternative ideas.

2-Well-defined criteria

It is clearly define the standards by which ideas will be assessed. The example is when the
president listened to the thought of John saying: "As we risk the Soviet attack on us first if they
decide to use missiles or lose them" the president said: "What do you choose for stone or
raids?" , the president make sure clearly define the standards by which ideas will be assessed
and what will make certain alternatives acceptable or unacceptable with other members .

3-Perceived fairness
It is engage in fair and reasonable process for accepting or rejecting ideas. The example was
when the president made the decision saying: "To protect our safety and security and in
accordance with the authority given to me by the constitution, I am ordered to take action."
Here the president was thinking fairly with all individuals in making decision , also we all know
that not every idea will be implemented or accepted, and sometimes it's our plans or proposals
that don't make the final cut. People are more willing to accept that reality if they perceive that
the process was fair.