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Overview of TIMES (MARKAL-EFOM)
Overview of TIMES (MARKAL-EFOM)
Uwe Remme
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rationale Use of Energy, Universität Stuttgart
ETSAP Workshop
November 21, 2007, Brasilia
1
Overview
● Introduction to TIMES
● The Reference Energy System (RES):
i. Building blocks of the RES
ii. Characteristics
● Time dimension
i. Time horizon of model analysis
ii. Time segments within a year
● Mathematical formulation:
i. Decision variables.
ii. Basic equations and related input data
iii. Objective function
GDP
Coal processing
Process energy
Domestic Industry
sources Heating area
Refineries
Population
Commercial and
Power plants tertiary sector Light
and
Transportation Communication
Households Power
Demands
CHP plants Person
and district kilometers
heat networks
Imports Transportation Freight
kilometers
Gas network
Cos
Primary energy Cap Final energy ts
a Demand services
citie
s
Peaking constraint
(→ Ensuring reserve capacity at peak load)
Load curve equations
Storage equations (e.g. pump storage)
Objective function
Min c1 x1 + c2 x2 + K + cn x n
t
ea
End-use
tH
ity
ter
ine
at
tric
tric
wa
m
sectors
sel
he
sol
ke
a
c
2
s
Di s
Ste
Co
Di e
rm
Ele
Ga
om
Ga
LH
as
Conversion
Wa
Lig oal
al g
Ro
a ss
Residential
nite
c
Primary sector
tur
nd
m
rd
Bio
Gas heating
Na
Ha
Wi
Oil
energy
supply Coal processing Oil heating
Elc. heating
Lignite resources Refinery
Local heat grid
at
ter
he
at
Lignite cond. PP
wa
he
Coal import
ess
rm
om
Coal IGCC PP
c
Pro
Wa
Commercial
Ro
Gas CC PP Room heat boilers
Gas resources
Wind converter Process heat boilers
Gas import
Warm water boilers
CHP sector
V
NP
Coal CHP
Residual wood
Industry
Coal CHP Industrial boilers
Gas CC CHP
M
Area PV,
M
Transport
PK
TK
Solarthermal, Biomass CC CHP
Energy crops Gasoil car
Gasoline car
Area Wind
2
CH
LH2 car
Electrolysis
Busses
Liquefication
Gasification
Trucks
Efficiency (LHV) % 46 47 48 50
Flows Flows
Max. availability h/a 7500 7500 7500 7500
0.27 kgSKE 1 kWh Fix O&M €/(kW a) 40.5 40.5 40.5 40.5
LV
ty
ci
tri
ec
d
El
V
V
he
M
H
er
as
C icity
ow
ty
w
ci
p
tri
Appliances
tr
l,
l,
oa
ec
ec
oa
2
O
C
El
El
C
Coal Lighting
imports Coal
Supercritical Grid MV &
transport Transf.
coal plant Urban trains
Domestic Grid HV &
mining Transf.
Industry
Backward Loops
LV
ty
ci
tri
ec
d
El
V
V
he
M
H
er
as
C icity
ow
ty
w
ci
p
tri
Appliances
tr
l,
l,
oa
ec
ec
oa
2
O
C
El
El
C
Supercritical Lighting
Domestic coal plant (exst)
mining Coal Grid MV &
transport Ultrasupercritical Transf.
coal plant (new) Urban trains
Coal Grid HV &
imports Transf.
s
ga
al
Industry
ur
at
Natural gas
N
GT (exist)
t
ea
End-use
tH
Dis ity
ter
ine
at
tric
tric
wa
m
sectors
he
sel
sol
ke
a
c
2
s
Ste
Co
Di e
rm
Ele
om
Ga
Ga
LH
as
Conversion
Wa
Lig oal
al g
Ro
a ss
Residential
nite
c
Primary sector
tur
nd
m
rd
Bio
Gas heating
Na
Ha
Wi
Oil
energy
supply Coal processing Oil heating
Elc. heating
Lignite resources Refinery Subsitution
Local heat grid
at
ter
he
at
Lignite cond. PP
wa
he
Coal import
ess
rm
om
Coal IGCC PP
c
Pro
Wa
Commercial
Ro
Gas CC PP Room heat boilers
Gas resources
Wind converter Process heat boilers
Gas import
Warm water boilers
CHP sector
P
GD
Coal CHP
Residual wood
Industry
Coal CHP Industrial boilers
Gas CC CHP
M
Area PV,
M
Transport
PK
TK
Solarthermal, Biomass CC CHP
Energy crops Gasoil car
Gasoline car
Area Wind
2
CH
LH2 car
Electrolysis
Busses
Liquefication
Gasification
Trucks
t
ea
End-use
ity
ter
ine
tH
at
• Equilibrium between electricity supply and demand
tric
wa
m
sectors
he
sel
tric
sol
ke
a
c
2
s
Ste
Co
Di e
rm
Ele
om
Ga
Ga
LH
Di s
as
Conversion
Wa
Lig oal
al g
Ro
a ss
Changes inPrimary
the system (e.g. phase-out of nuclear) sector Residential
nite
c
tur
nd
m
rd
Bio
Wi
Na
Gas heating
Ha
Oil
yield new equilibrium
energy e.g.:
1) Missing
supply Coal processing
nuclear substituted by coal (or natural gas, Oil heating
2) Increase in electricity price (and CO2 certificate price) Local heat grid
3) Substitution of electricity in the end-use sectors
Gas processing Gas water boiler
Oil resources
Elc. water boiler
Oil import
Elec sector Elc. heat pump
Coal cond. PP
Coal resources
at
ter
he
at
Lignite cond. PP
wa
he
Coal import
ess
rm
om
c
Coal IGCC PP
Pro
Wa
Commercial
Ro
Gas CC PP Room heat boilers
Gas resources
Wind converter Process heat boilers
Gas import
Warm water boilers
CHP sector
P
GD
Coal CHP
Residual wood
Industry
Coal CHP Industrial boilers
Gas CC CHP
M
Area PV,
M
Transport
PK
TK
Solarthermal, Biomass CC CHP
Energy crops Gasoil car
Gasoline car
2
Area Wind
CH
LH2 car
Electrolysis
Busses
Liquefication
Gasification
Trucks
t
ea
End-use
ity
ter
ine
tH
ss
at
tric
wa
m
sectors
ma
he
tric
sol
ke
a
c
2
s
Ste
Co
Bio
rm
Ele
om
Ga
Ga
LH
Di s
as
Conversion
Wa
Lig oal
al g
Ro
a ss
Residential
nite
c
Primary sector
tur
nd
m
rd
Bio
Wi
Na
Gas heating
Ha
Oil
energy
supply Coal processing Biomass heating
Elc. heating
Lignite resources Refinery
Local heat grid
at
ter
he
at
Lignite cond. PP
wa
he
Coal import
ess
rm
om
c
Biomass IGCC PP
Pro
Wa
Commercial
Ro
Gas CC PP Room heat boilers
Gas resources
Wind converter Process heat boilers
Gas import
Warm water boilers
CHP sector
P
GD
Coal CHP
Residual wood
Industry
Coal CHP Industrial boilers
Gas CC CHP
M
Area PV,
M
Transport
PK
TK
Solarthermal, Biomass CC CHP
Energy crops Gasoil car
Gasoline car
2
Area Wind
CH
LH2 car
Electrolysis
Busses
Liquefication
Gasification
Trucks
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Milestoneyear
eat
eat
eat
eat
eat
eat
End-use End-use End-use End-use End-use End-use
tH
tH
tH
tH
tH
tH
ity
ity
ity
ity
ity
ity
ter
ter
ter
ter
ter
ter
e
e
tricat
tricat
tricat
tricat
tricat
at
coa asolin
coa asolin
coa asolin
solin
ctric
tric
tric
tric
tric
tric
tric
l ga am
l ga am
l ga am
l ga am
l ga am
am
sectors sectors sectors sectors sectors sectors
kwea
kwea
kwea
kwea
kwea
wa
el
el
el
sel
el
sel
leche
leche
leche
leche
leche
he
ke
ies
ies
ies
ies
2
2
as
as
as
as
as
s
s
s
Dis
Dis
Dis
Dis
Dis
Dis
tura Ste
tura Ste
tura Ste
tura Ste
tura Ste
Ste
Co
Co
Co
Co
d Die
Co
Co
Die
Ele
Ga
rm
rm
rm
rm
rm
rm
Ga
Ga
Ga
oEm
oEm
om
oEm
om
om
LH
LH
LH
LH
LH
LH
s
s
nite G
nite G
nite G
nite G
nite G
G
G
Conversion Conversion Conversion Conversion Conversion Conversion
d D
d D
d D
d D
E
E
l ga
Lig oal
l
Wa
Wa
Wa
Wa
Wa
Wa
Ro
Ro
Ro
Ro
Ro
Ro
ss
ss
ss
ss
ss
ss
Residential Residential Residential Residential Residential Residential
tura
c
nite
ma
ma
ma
ma
ma
ma
Primary sector Primary sector Primary sector Primary sector Primary sector Primary sector
d
rd
rd
rd
rd
rd
rd
Win
Win
Win
Win
Win
Win
Bio
Bio
Bio
Bio
Bio
Bio
Gas heating Gas heating Gas heating Gas heating Gas heating Gas heating
Lig
Lig
Lig
Ha
Na
Ha
Na
Ha
Na
Ha
Na
Ha
Na
Ha
Na
Oil
Oil
Oil
Oil
Oil
Oil
energy energy energy energy energy energy
supply Coal processing supply Coal
Oil heating
processing supply Coal
Oil heating
processing supply Coal
Oil heating
processing supply Coal
Oil heating
processing supply Coal
Oil heating
processing Oil heating
Elc. heating Elc. heating Elc. heating Elc. heating Elc. heating Elc. heating
Lignite resources Refinery Lignite resources Refinery Lignite resources Refinery Lignite resources Refinery Lignite resources Refinery Lignite resources Refinery
Local heat grid Local heat grid Local heat grid Local heat grid Local heat grid Local heat grid
t
ea
ea
ea
ea
ea
ea
ter
ter
ter
ter
ter
ter
at
at
at
at
at
at
Lignite cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Lignite cond. PP
sh
sh
sh
sh
sh
sh
wa
wa
wa
wa
wa
wa
he
he
he
he
he
he
Coal import Coal import Coal import Coal import Coal import Coal import
ces
ces
ces
ces
ces
ces
rm
rm
rm
rm
rm
rm
om
om
om
om
om
om
Coal IGCC PP Coal IGCC PP Coal IGCC PP Coal IGCC PP Coal IGCC PP Coal IGCC PP
Pro
Pro
Pro
Pro
Pro
Pro
Wa
Wa
Wa
Wa
Wa
Wa
Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial
Ro
Ro
Ro
Ro
Ro
Ro
Gas CC PP RoomGas
heatCC
boilers
PP RoomGas
heatCC
boilers
PP RoomGas
heatCC
boilers
PP RoomGas
heatCC
boilers
PP RoomGas
heatCC
boilers
PP Room heat boilers
Gas resources Gas resources Gas resources Gas resources Gas resources Gas resources
Wind converter Process
Windheat
converter
boilers Process
Windheat
converter
boilers Process
Windheat
converter
boilers Process
Windheat
converter
boilers Process
Windheat
converter
boilers Process heat boilers
Gas import Gas import Gas import Gas import Gas import Gas import
Warm water boilers Warm water boilers Warm water boilers Warm water boilers Warm water boilers Warm water boilers
CHP sector CHP sector CHP sector CHP sector CHP sector CHP sector
P
P
GD
GD
GD
GD
GD
GD
Coal CHP Coal CHP Coal CHP Coal CHP Coal CHP Coal CHP
Residual wood Residual wood
Industry Residual wood
Industry Residual wood
Industry Residual wood
Industry Residual wood
Industry Industry
Coal CHP Industrial
Coalboilers
CHP Industrial
Coalboilers
CHP Industrial
Coalboilers
CHP Industrial
Coalboilers
CHP Industrial
Coalboilers
CHP Industrial boilers
Gas CC CHP Gas CC CHP Gas CC CHP Gas CC CHP Gas CC CHP Gas CC CHP
Area PV, Area PV, Area PV,
M
Area PV,
M
Area PV,
M
Area PV,
M
M
M
Transport Transport Transport Transport Transport Transport
PK
PK
PK
PK
PK
PK
TK
TK
TK
TK
TK
TK
Solarthermal, Biomass CC CHP Solarthermal, Biomass CC CHP Solarthermal, Biomass CC CHP Solarthermal, Biomass CC CHP Solarthermal, Biomass CC CHP Solarthermal, Biomass CC CHP
Energy crops Energy crops Gasoil car Energy crops Gasoil car Energy crops Gasoil car Energy crops Gasoil car Energy crops Gasoil car Gasoil car
Gasoline car Gasoline car Gasoline car Gasoline car Gasoline car Gasoline car
Area Wind Area Wind Area Wind Area Wind Area Wind Area Wind
2
2
CH
CH
CH
CH
CH
CH
LH2 car LH2 car LH2 car LH2 car LH2 car LH2 car
Electrolysis Electrolysis Electrolysis Electrolysis Electrolysis Electrolysis
Busses Busses Busses Busses Busses Busses
Liquefication Liquefication Liquefication Liquefication Liquefication Liquefication
Gasification Gasification Gasification Gasification Gasification Gasification
Trucks Trucks Trucks Trucks Trucks Trucks
2000
2010
1990
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Pastyear
Milestoneyears
100 MW
50 MW
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Pastyears Milestoneyears
Run 5 28 29 30 31 32
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Run 4 23 24 25 26 27
Milestoneyear Run 3 18 19 20 21 22
Run1 08 09 10 11 12
03 04 05 06 07
Sequence of model runs
● Perfect foresight:
i. Decisions take into account entire future model horizon
ii. Model gives optimal strategy under assumed conditions
● Myopic foresight:
i. Decisions are based on only limited knowledge of the future
ii. Implicitly assumed that current conditions will last forever; to some extent
ignorant about future
Uwe Remme Overview of TIMES November 21, 2007 19
Timeslices
Model horizon
Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4
Winter
SP SU FA WI Seasons (Saisonal)
Representative year
(milestoneyear)
Winter Week-end
SU_WD
SU_WE
SP_WD
FA_WD
SP_WE
FA_WE
WI_WD
WI_WE
Week day (Weekly)
SU_WDN
SP_WDD
SP_WDN
SU_WED
SU_WEN
FA_WDD
FA_WDN
SP_WED
SP_WEN
FA_WED
FA_WEN
WI_WDD
WI_WDN
WI_WED
WI_WEN
Part of the day (Daily)
Secure capactiy
Peak load
(reality)
Peak load factor (com_pkflx)
Peak load
due to approximated
load curve Real load curve
Average day load
Average night
load
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
Daytime
● Modeller specifies process and commodity timeslice levels, timeslice levels of commodtiy balances
and process flows are deteremined according to the following rules:
● Commodity timeslice level COM_TSL ⇒ timeslice level of commodity balance equation (default
ANNUAL)
● Process timeslice level PRC_TSL ⇒ timeslice level of activity variable and corresponding flow
variables (default ANNUAL)
● All other flows are modelled at the finest level of COM_TSLevel of the SPG or PRC_TSL.
Region 3
Area of study
OILDST
OILLPG
OILCRD SSCDRFLX00
OILGSL
OILKER
Activity definition ACTt , SCP ,ts = FLOt , SCP , ELC ,ts Activity ACTt,SCP,ts
Capacity-Activity ∑ ACT
ts
t , SCP ,ts ≤ α t , SCP , ANNUAL ⋅ CAPt , SCP
New capacity
constraints NCAPt,SCP
ACTt , SCP ,ts ≤ α t , SCP ,ts ⋅ CAPt , SCP ⋅ Δts
Total capacity
CAPt , SCP = cap_pastt,SCP + ∑ cptyrv ,t , SCP ⋅ NCAPv , SCP CAPt,SCP
Capacity definition v <t
● Flow oriented:
● Blending variables
i. VAR_BLND(r,t,ble,opr): amount of blending stock opr needed
for the production of blending product ble
/ Peak load
(reality)
Peak load factor (com_pkflx)
WEU.2000.RH.ID 0.12000000 Peak load
due to approximated
WEU.2000.RH.IN 0.06000000 load curve Real load curve
Average day load
WEU.2000.RH.SD 0
WEU.2000.RH.SN 0
WEU.2000.RH.WD 0.54670000 Average night
load
WEU.2000.RH.WN 0.27330000
/ 0 4 8 12 16 20 24
Daytime
● Cumulative commodity bounds between two periods t1 and t2:
● COM_CUMNET(r,t1,t2,c,l) limit on net amount of commodity
● COM_CUMPRD (r,t1,t2,c,l) limit on production of commodity
Uwe Remme Overview of TIMES November 21, 2007 31
Transformation equation
● Transformation equations establishes relationship between the flows of two commodity groups.
COAHAR ELC
Coal plant
ECOASTM000
VAR_FLOCOAHAR VAR_FLOELC
Efficiency
FLO_FUNCr,t,ECOASTM000,COAHAR,ELC, s = 0.33
EQ_PTRANS r,v,t,ECOASTM000,COAHAR,ELC,s
Transformation
equation
FLO_FUNCr,t,ECOASTM000,COAHAR,ELC , s × VAR_FLOr,v,t,ECOASTM000,COAHAR,s = VAR_FLOr,v,t,ECOASTM000,ELC,s
Refinery
RFLX00
Prozess p Prozess p
Commodity Commodity
specific flosum r,v,t,p,CG2,C3,CG1,s specific
flosum r,v,t,p,CG1,C2,CG2,s efficiencies
efficiencies
on the input side on the output side
⎛ flosumr,v,t,p,CG1,C1,CG2,s FLOr ,v,t,p,C1,s ⎞
flofuncr,v,t,p,CG1,CG2,s ⎜⎜ ⎟
⎟ FLOr ,v,t,p,C1,s + FLOr ,v ,t,p,C2,s
⎝ + flosum r,v,t,p,CG1,C2,CG2,s FLO r , v , t,p,C2 , s ⎠
= =
⎛ flosum r,v,t,p,CG1,C3,CG2,s FLOr,v,t,p,C3,s ⎞
FLOr,v,t,p,C3,s + FLOr,v,t,p,C4,s flofuncr,v,t,p,CG2,CG1,s ⎜⎜ ⎟
⎟
⎝ + flosum r,v,t,p,CG1,C4,CG2,s FLO r,v,t,p,C4,s ⎠
● It is not possible to use commodity specific efficiencies on both sides of the process at the same time!
● EQ_PTRANS is created on the finer timeslice level of SPG or PRC_TSL. SPG (Shadow Primary
Commodity Group) is defined as the group of commodities on the opposite side of the PCG having the
same commodity type as the PCG.
Refinery
RFLX00
EQ_ACTFLOr,v,t,RFLX00,s
≤
VAR_ACT(r,v,t,p,s) Available capacity of process p in period t and timeslice s
=
Capacity:
timeslice s member of
• Past investments before model
PRC_TSL
horizon: NCAP_PASTI
• New investments from previous
periods
• New investments in actual period t
Three availabilities:
VAR_NCAP = 100 MW 80 MW
VAR_NCAP = 100 MW 70 MW
Refinery
RFLX00
∑VAR_FLO r,v,t,RFLX00,OILDSL,s
v
≤ FLO_SHARr,t,RFLX00,NRGO,OILDSL,s,UP
∑ (VAR_FLOr,v,t,RFLX00,OILDSL,s + VAR_FLOr,v,t,RFLX00,OILGSL,s )
v
K + varomt,SCP ⋅ ACTt , SCP ,ts ⋅ Δt + K FLOt , SCP ,COL,ts ACTt , SCP ,ts
FLOt,SCP,CO2,ts
Supercrititcal
ii. Fixed O&M costs in period t coal plant (SCP)
FLOt , SCP , ELC ,ts
NCAPt , SCP
K + fixomt,SCP ⋅ CAPt , SCP ,ts ⋅ Δt + K
iii. Levelized investment costs in period t (capital recovery factor crf depends on economic lifetime
and/or technology specific discount rate)
Operation - Subsidies
- Exports
Model years
Construction Technical lifetime= Decommissioning
time Economic lifetime time
⎣ c ts c ts c p ts ⎦
● Transformation equation ηt , p ,cin ,cout ,ts ⋅ FLOt , p ,cin ,ts = FLOt , p ,cout ,ts
FLOt , p ,com,ts
● Input/Output shares on process flows ≤ (=, ≥ ) floshart , p ,com,cg ,ts ,bd
∑ FLO
c∈cg
t , p , c ,ts
∑ FLO t , p , c , ts
● Market share constraints ts
≤ (=, ≥ ) mrkshrt , p ,c ,bd
∑ ∑ FLO
p∈Production / Consumption ts
t , p , c ,ts
b
c>
=
pe
● Damage functions for external costs of pollutants
Slo
● Sensitivity analysis algorithm = b>
a
pe
Sl o
● Stochastic programming =a
Slope
● Climate module
Climate Module – Main features Stochastic TIMES – Example
High Growth
Non-CO2 gases:
Conversion to CO2-eq exogenous forcing 0.4
High Mitigation
CO2 EMISSIONS CONCENTRATION RADIATIVE GLOBAL MEAN 0.5
(sum of flows) (stock GtC) FORCING (W/m2) TEMP INCREASE
(°C) 0.6 Low Growth
From TIMES Linear 3 reservoirs One log equation
processes Atmosphere Linear 2 reservoirs
Atmosphere & 0.5 High Growth
Biosphere &
ocean surface ocean surface 0.5
Deep ocean Deep ocean
Low Mitigation
Environmental constraints Reporting parameters / 0.5
endogenous variables
Radiative forcing
sensitivity to CO2 Temperature
Stage 1 Stage 2 Low Growth Stage 3
concentration: sensitivity to CO2
concentration:
γ = 4.1 W/m2
High uncertainty 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
γ = 5.35•ln(2) W/m2