When will the Covid-19

Pandemic End ?
Levitt’s Metric on Indian Data
Bhaskaran Raman, Dept of CSE, IIT Bombay
13 July 2020
Opening Remarks, Disclaimers
● What you will see is childishly simple (high school math)
[and hence blindingly brilliant]
● It is nothing new: it has been known since Mar/Apr
● Michael Levitt proposed this metric based on his analysis
of Hubei data, and later for other countries’ data
● What I have done: simply applied it on Indian data
○ And other countries, for comparison
Levitt’s Metric, Advantages
Metric: H(t) = X(t)/X(t-1), where

X(t) is cumulative count until day t, of (a) Covid deaths, or (b) Covid cases

Advantages:

● Simple to understand, compute: no complex differentials/integrals

● Independent of population size: can compare across regions: city, state,
district, country
● Robust to different countries/regions having different testing capacities
● Robust to varying definitions of what is a Covid death
● Robust to systematic under-counting (so long as it is time invariant)
Acknowledgment
Data sources: https://covid19india.org, https://worldometer.info, Google for misc
information

Ramachandran Shankar (ISRC) for Chennai Twitter data

Mahesh Tirumkudulu (ChE, IITB) for feedback and discussion

Shashikant Suryanarayanan (ME, IITB) for perspective, helping keep my sanity,

and for feedback
Lets plot H(t) as
a function of t
Plot of Hubei Data (Levitt’s paper, 14 Mar 2020)
Central observations:
● H(t) vs t follows a line
of downward slope
● Approaches 1 after
about 90-100 days
● Note: H(t) = 1 ⇒ no
new deaths ⇒
pandemic over

Note: Levitt does not explain why

this happens, nor do I : future
work for modelers, virologists
Covid Deaths in the UK
Population = 67 million
Covid deaths = 45K
DPM = 670
H(t) = 0.001 ⇒ 45
deaths per day = 1/30th
of normal non-Covid
deaths per day

H(t) hovering between

1.001 and 1.004 in the
last week
Covid Deaths in Sweden
Population = 10 million
Covid deaths = 5.5K
Check: pandemic has DPM = 550
“ended” around when H(t) = 0.001 ⇒ 6 deaths
the linear fit reaches y=1 per day = 1/35th of
normal non-Covid death
rate

H(t) fallen to around this

value already
Covid Deaths in Brazil
H(t) = 1.001 will be
reached when x=125,
i.e 2 weeks from now

Population = 210 million

Covid deaths = 72K
DPM = 340
Now lower than
UK/Sweden: will likely
rise to similar levels
eventually
Covid Deaths in Italy
H(t) very low for a long
time now

Check: pandemic has Population = 60 million

“ended” around when Covid deaths = 35K
the linear fit reaches y=1
DPM = 583

Similar to Sweden, UK

Exponential decay may

be a better approx., but
the overall point holds
Covid Deaths in Spain H(t) very low for a long
time now

Population = 47 million
Check: pandemic has Covid deaths = 28K
“ended” around when
DPM = 595
the linear fit reaches y=1

Similar to Sweden, UK,

Italy

Exponential decay may

be a better approx., but
the overall point holds
Covid Deaths in Germany
H(t) very low for a while
now
Check: pandemic has
“ended” around when Population = 83 million
the linear fit reaches y=1 Covid deaths = 9K
DPM = 110
Need to understand
reason behind this...
Covid Deaths in India
H(t) = 1.001 will be
reached when x=185, or
another 2 ½ months
from now

Population = 1380
million
Covid deaths = 23.7K
DPM = 17 so far
Covid Deaths in Mumbai
H(t) = 1.001 will be
reached when x=83, or
another 2 weeks from
now

Population = 20 million
Covid deaths = 5.3K
Will likely reach ~6-6.5K
overall; H(t)=0.001 will
mean single digit
deaths/day
DPM = 265 so far
Covid Deaths in Delhi
H(t) = 1.001 will be
reached when x=132, or
another 2 ½ weeks from
now

Population = 20 million
Covid deaths = 3.4K
Will likely reach ~4.5K
overall; H(t)=0.001 will
mean single digit
deaths/day
DPM = 170 so far
Covid Deaths in Chennai (Twitter Data Source)
H(t) = 1.001 will be
reached when x=95, or
another 10 days from
now (noisy data
source?, need to
recheck)

Population = 7 million
Covid deaths = 1.2K
Covid Deaths in Chennai
H(t) = 1.001 will be
reached when x=97, or
about now (noisy data
source, need to cleanup
and recheck)

Population = 7 million
Covid deaths = 1.2K
Covid Deaths in Chennai: Day 70 onwards
H(t) = 1.001 will be
reached when x=128, or
about 1 month from now

Population = 7 million
Covid deaths = 1.2K
Covid Deaths in Maharashtra
H(t) = 1.001 will be
reached when x=164, or
another 2 months
Covid Deaths in Tamil Nadu
H(t) = 1.001 will be
reached when x=276, or
another 6 months (we
are likely too early in the
pandemic, to tell right)
Covid Deaths in Kerala
Numbers are too small
to make any sense;
pandemic pain
postponed or pending
or prevented?
Covid Deaths in Karnataka
Pandemic pain is only
just beginning !
Covid Deaths in Gujarat
H(t) = 1.001 will be
reached when x=114, or
about now

Population = 63 million
Covid deaths = 2.1K
DPM = 33 so far
When will the
Pandemic End? 2.5 weeks
Ended

2 weeks

Most of
2 months India:
2.5 months
2-4
Beginning
weeks

From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:India_-_administrative_map.png