Education Days Moscow 2013

Basin and Petroleum Systems Modelling:

Applications for Conventional and Unconventional
Petroleum Exploration Risk and Resource
Assessments

By Dr Bjorn Wygrala
Schlumberger

21-22 November 2013

7. Shale Gas/Oil
 1. Opening Session: Industry Challenges and Opportunities

Conventional Petroleum Systems

2. Deepwater and Salt
3. Structural Complexity
4. Reservoir in Petroleum Systems Modeling

Theoretical Aspects
5. Temperature and Pressure
6. Petroleum Generation and Migration

Unconventional Petroleum Systems

7. Shale Gas/Oil
8. Gas Hydrates

9. Closing Session: Petroleum Systems Modeling in Context

2
 Conventional Petroleum Systems and Processes
In conventional petroleum systems, we are interested Reservoir System
in the hydrocarbons that have been expelled from the
loss
source rocks

Carrier System

loss

Source System

Basic processes:
source unit
- generation
carrier - expulsion
source unit
- migration
- containment
(accumulation/loss)

3
 Unconventional Petroleum Systems and Processes 1
In unconventional petroleum systems, we are
interested in the hydrocarbons that have been
retained in the source rocks

Source/Reservoir System

Basic processes:
source unit - generation
- retention
source unit - secondary cracking
of oil to gas
- containment
(accumulation/loss)
4
 Unconventional Petroleum Systems and Processes 2
In unconventional petroleum systems, we are
interested in the hydrocarbons that have been
loss
retained in the source rocks ... or migrated into
juxtaposed, continuous organic-lean intervals

Source/Carrier/Reservoir
System

Shale-oil Resource Systems

source unit ... are organic-rich mudstones that have
carrier generated oil that is stored in the organic-
rich mudstone intervals or migrated into
source unit juxtaposed, continuous organic-lean
intervals. Thus these systems may
include primary and secondary migrated
oil.
Jarvie, 2012

5
 Shale Gas or Shale Oil?
Burial until oil is Further burial until Uplift and erosion
generated in retained oil in to move source
source rock source rock is rocks to shallower
cracked to gas depths to improve
The oil can be drilling economics
expelled and/or Shale
retained
Gas

Burial until oil is Uplift and erosion

generated in to move source
source rock rocks to shallower
depths to improve
The oil can be drilling economics Shale
expelled and/or Oil
retained

Controlling factors for shale gas or shale oil:

- thermal histories (temperature vs. time)
- type of organic matter … assessed with Petroleum Systems Modeling!
6
 Contents

 Alaska North Slope 3D Petroleum Systems Model

– Conventional Exploration Risk and Resource Assessment
– Geological Evolution
– Maturation History
– Petroleum Migration History

 Unconventionals: Shale Gas/Oil Assessment

– Workflow and Application

 Summary and Conclusions

7
 Alaska North Slope - Schlumberger/USGS 3D Petroleum Systems Study

3D Model covers ~275,000 km2

Well database with > 400 wells
8
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

U.S. Geological Survey Energy Group experts for the project include:

Kenneth J. Bird, Leslie B. Magoon, and Zenon C. Valin

9
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Interpretation

2D line

New interpretation
of Brookian
sequence to take
time-stratigraphic
instead of litho-
stratigraphic
development into
account

10
 Petroleum Systems Modeling
Alaska North Slope Geology and Petroleum Systems through geologic time …

11
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

120 Ma

12
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

115 Ma

13
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

110 Ma

14
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

105 Ma

15
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

97 Ma

16
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

85 Ma

17
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

75 Ma

18
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

65 Ma

19
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

60 Ma

After first Tertiary uplift

20
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

55 Ma

21
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

41 Ma

22
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

40 Ma

After second Tertiary uplift

23
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

25 Ma

24
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

24 Ma

After third Tertiary uplift

25
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

10 Ma

26
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

Present-day

27
 Contents

 Alaska North Slope 3D Petroleum Systems Model

– Conventional Exploration Risk and Resource Assessment
– Geological Evolution
– Maturation History
– Petroleum Migration History

 Unconventionals: Shale Gas/Oil Assessment

– Workflow and Application

 Summary and Conclusions

28
 PetroMod Special Functions and Output for Unconventionals
Special Functions for shale oil and gas Special Results for shale oil and gas
modeling: evaluations:

Langmuir adsorption model: Resource (oil/gas) properties:

• all parameters can be edited with user-defined • Maturity (%Ro)
values; included in PetroMod 2011.1 • Petroleum type (oil vs. gas)
• adsorption modeling takes both pressure and • Petroleum volumes (oil/gas in place)
termperature effects into account
• Expulsion vs. retention
Organic porosity modeling: • Saturations
• can be simulated as a function of organic matter • PT and phase!
maturation in PetroMod 2011.1 • Adsorbed vs. free phase gas
• porosity overlay includes organic porosity
• separate organic porosity overlay available in Reservoir properties:
Q1, 2010 • Porosity/Permeability history
• Stress/Strain history
Geomechanics modeling:
• Current stress regime
• Stress history

29
 Workflows and Tools
Original G&G Data: includes measured, Results of Process-Based Analysis: data
interpreted, estimated and conceptual data which is calculated from models and is the
used to construct data models: result of processes through geologic time

Petrel Petroleum Systems 3D PetroMod

PetroMod
(data assembly) (process simulation)

Petroleum Systems 3D

Petrel
(data integration and analysis)

'Playto
Play to Prospect
Prospect Risk'
Risk
Play Chance Mapping
Prospect Assessment

30
 Play Chance Mapping - Megaregional Screening with Basic Criteria

Central North Slope tracts

Central Foothills tracts

TAPS

31
 Typical Geologic Criteria for Shale Gas Assessments

Criterion Description Value Range

TOC Total organic carbon (weight %) > 2%
Thermal Maturity Thermal maturation measure/calculated by vitrinite > 1.2 %Ro (gas)
reflectance (%Ro)
Thickness 'Continuous' thickness of source/reservoir > 50-100 ft
Depth 'Deep' enough for pressure support, shallow > 3000 ft,
enough for economics … uplift/erosion! < 10,000 ft
Fracability High quartz and/or carbonate, low clay mineral > 50% quartz and/or
content carbonate
Containment Seal or confining elements to trap oil/gas and limit
fracing range
…

32
 Conversion of Organic Matter by Type
Note:
• Unique samples! Not universal for all Type I, II or II kerogens!

%VRo Tmax (oC)

Type II Type II-OS Type III Type I
0.40 420

0.60 430

0.75 440

0.95 450

1.10 460

1.30 470

1.50 480

33 Dan Jarvie, Worldwide Geochemistry, TSOP 2011 Unconventional Shale Resource Play Geochemistry Course
 Play to Prospect Risk plugin
Make Play Chance Map Window for Shublik Source Properties in Petrel:

Selected
criteria

34
 Play to Prospect Risk plugin
Make Play Chance Map for Shublik Source Properties in Petrel:

Select either

simple transform, or

transform function

to convert criteria value

(for example source rock thickness)
to
Chance of Success (COS*)
values

* COS = Chance of Success 1 = good 0 = bad

35
 Play Chance Mapping - Megaregional Screening with Basic Criteria

Depth map from 3D petroleum systems model; simple transform of depth values to COS*

* COS = Chance of Success 1 = good 0 = bad

36
 Play Chance Mapping - Megaregional Screening with Basic Criteria

Maturation (%Ro) map from 3D petroleum systems model; transform function to COS

* COS = Chance of Success 1 = good 0 = bad

37
 Play Chance Mapping - Megaregional Screening with Basic Criteria

Total Play Chance Map!

for Shublik Shale Oil Resources

Combine
all Source
Risk Maps

* COS = Chance of Success 1 = good 0 = bad

38
 Play Chance Mapping - Local Area Screening with Refined Data

local area play chance maps

Central North Slope tracts

Central Foothills tracts TAPS

39
 Play to Prospect Risk plugin
Make Play Chance Map for Shublik Source Properties in Petrel:

User-defined list of criteria, in this

example factors which can have
an effect on 'shale oil'
prospectivity:
1. Oil generation
2. Oil properties
Selected 3. Oil retention
criteria 4. Oil volumetrics
5. Target location and access

40
 Play Chance Mapping for Shale Oil

target offshore target is eroded or too thin

target is too deep

and/or
contains gas instead of oil

Total Play Chance Map!

for shale oil potential in Shublik target
note rescaled COS
44
 Shale Oil Exploration: Alaska

Alaska North Slope

• Great Bear leased shale oil
play acreage based on
Schlumberger/USGS
PetroMod 3D petroleum
systems model

• Favourable maturation
'windows' for two source
units (Hue/GRZ and
Shublik/Kingak) from
Peters et al. 2006

• Areas available in 7th

December 2011 lease sale
(purple colour)

48
 Shale Oil Exploration: Alaska … next steps

Note favourable
location next to
TAPS pipeline

Full field
development
fanning out from
initial development
corridor

49
 Shale Oil Exploration: Alaska … status update
Ed Duncan (Great Bear President and CEO), speaking at the Alaska Oil and Gas Congress, Sept.19 th, 2012*

Announcement of first results from Alcor No. 1 shale oil test well:

 "where we thought we would find oil in these source rocks, we found oil"
 "… we determined what leases to purchase and where to drill test wells
using a model of the North Slope petroleum system …"

 "that model had proved very successful in explaining the mix of oils found
in the (conventional) North Slope oil fields. The model had predicted the
locations of 'liquids fairways' in the source rocks, and the results so far of
Great Bear's drilling have substantiated those predictions"

* Petroleum News, Vol.17, No.39, Week of September 23, 2012

50
 Summary and Conclusions

3D Petroleum Systems Model

and rapid analysis and
decisions enabled explorer to
recognize shale oil potential
in a new play and be the first
mover

As a result, initial drilling has

now (technically) proven the
first shale oil play in Alaska

Image courtesy akbizmag.com

51
 Contents

 Alaska North Slope 3D Petroleum Systems Model

– Conventional Exploration Risk and Resource Assessment
– Geological Evolution
– Maturation History
– Petroleum Migration History

 Unconventionals: Shale Gas/Oil Assessment

– Workflow and Application

 Summary and Conclusions

52
 Petroleum Resource Assessment Workflow
for conventionals and unconventionals

G&G Data Analysis Risks

Petroleum Statistical
into and and
Systems Analysis
Model Mapping Resources

53
 Petroleum Resource Assessment Workflow
for conventionals and unconventionals

G&G Data Analysis Risks

Petroleum Statistical
into and and
Systems Analysis
Model Mapping Resources

Interpretation, mapping Petroleum Systems Risk Mapping and Statistical assessment of Resource
of Gross Depositional Modeling of maturation, definition of conventional and Mapping and
Environments and expulsion vs. retention, Assessment Units unconventional Reporting
model construction migration and (ASU) hydrocarbon resources
accumulation

54
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

U.S. Geological Survey Energy Group experts for the project include:

Kenneth J. Bird, Leslie B. Magoon, and Zenon C. Valin

55
 Alaska North Slope - 3D Petroleum Systems Model

Present-day

56
 HC Masses in Place
Total Oil Masses (0...2 Mt) Total Gas Masses (0...5 Mt)

Adsorbed Oil Masses (0...2 Mt) Adsorbed Gas Masses (0…5 Mt) The total oil and gas masses show the
hydrocarbon in place. Here, most of the oil is
adsorbed while most gas is in the free
phase.

57
 Expelled vs. Retained
Generated Petroleum Masses (0..20 Mt)
Generated Oil Masses (0…15 Mt)
58
Retained vs. Generated (0..100%)
Generated Gas Masses (0...5 Mt) The primary generated oil and gas mass
reduced by the secondary cracking
losses is compared with total oil/gas in
place.
The effect of asphaltenes (not in HI!) has
to be treated separately when using
SARA kinetics.
 Volumes in Place

Total Oil Volumes per Rock Mass (0...1 bbl/ton) Total Gas Volumes per Rock Mass (0…300 scf/ton)

Use Overlay Calculator for Volumetrics (and “Corrected” Saturations)

Total Gas Volume per Rock Mass =
((Petroleum Mass: Methane [megatons])+(Adsorption Mass: Methane [megatons])) * 10 ^ 9/ 0.717/ (((Density: Bulk [kg/m^3]) - (Porosity
[percent]) * 0.01 * 1040) * ElementVolume * 10 ^ 9)

59
 Assessment Units (AU) Definition – USGS Bakken Example

Assessment
Units (AU) used
in USGS study

60
Definition of Segments = Assessment Units (AU)
Assessment Unit Criteria: Tools:
Shale Characteristics, e.g. Facies, Thickness Petrel Exploration Geology
Maturity e.g. TR, VR, Oil vs Gas

1
Depositional boundary Depositional boundary

TR=5-15%

Chance of Adequacy
TR=5-15%

TR=>15% TR=>15%

0
 Definition of Segments = Assessment Units (AU)
Assessment Unit Criteria: Tools:
Shale Characteristics, e.g. Facies, Thickness Petrel Exploration Geology
Maturity e.g. TR, VR, Oil vs Gas

Offshore

Depositional boundary

TR=5-15%

TR=>15%

State boundary
Depositional boundary

0 Chance of Success 1
 Refined Source Rock Model - Shale Layer and Facies Preparation
Zone A: (Up to 30m) Zone A
• N: Glauconitic Sandstone
• M: Carbonate Grainstone/Packstones
• S: Black Shale

A
Zone B: (Up to 15m)
• N: Phosphatic Sand/Shale/Limestones Zone B
• M: Lime Packstone/Grainstone
• S: Black Shale
B

C
Zone C: (Up to 40m)
• N: Phosphatic Carbonate Zone C
D • M: Phosphatic Silt
• S: Pebbley/Nodular Phosphorites

Zone D: (Up to 7m) Zone D

• N: Non-Phosphatic Sandstone
• M: Massive Phosphatic Sandstone
• S: Offshore Clay/Silt

63
Selected AU: Shale Porosities and Saturations in each Shublik Zone

Zone A
Oil
Porosity Saturation
15 % 100%

Zone B

Zone C

0% 0%
Zone D
Selected AU: Shale Porosities and Saturations in each Shublik Zone

Zone A
Oil
Porosity Saturation
15 % 100%

Zone B

Zone C

0% 0%
Zone D
 Resources in Segment = Assessment Unit (AU)

Exploration
Model (Shublik)
Area [km2]

Reservoir Thickness [m]

Net/gross ratio [decimal]

Porosity [decimal]

Oil Saturation [decimal]

Formation volume factor (Bo)

[m3/Sm3]

In-Place Oil
Resources - STOIIP
in AU [MM Sm3]

66
 Resources in Segment = Assessment Unit (AU)

Exploration Analog
Model (Shublik) Model (Eagle Ford)
Area [km2] Area [km2]

Reservoir Thickness [m] Oil well spacing [/km2]

Net/gross ratio [decimal] Segment Number of Oil Wells [n]

Porosity [decimal] Well Success Rate [decimal]

Oil Saturation [decimal] Segment Number of Successful Oil Wells [n]

Formation volume factor (Bo) EUR per oil well [MM Sm3]
[m3/Sm3]

In-Place Oil Recoverable Oil Resources

Resources - STOIIP in AU [MM Sm3]
in AU [MM Sm3]

Recovery Factor in AU [decimal]

67
 EUR/well (Eagle Ford) EUR/well (adapted)
Central 115,282 bbl 0.018 MM Sm3 100,000 bbl 0.0159 MM Sm3

SPE 158207 [http://gswindell.com/sp158207.pdf], Eagle Ford Shale - An Early Look at Ultimate Recovery, Gary S. Swindell, SPE
 Resources in Segment = Assessment Unit (AU)

Exploration Analog
Model (Shublik) Model (Eagle Ford)
Area [km2] Area [km2]

Reservoir Thickness [m] Oil well spacing [/km2]

Net/gross ratio [decimal] Segment Number of Oil Wells [n]

Porosity [decimal] Well Success Rate [decimal]

Oil Saturation [decimal] Segment Number of Successful Oil Wells [n]

Formation volume factor (Bo) EUR per oil well [MM Sm3]
[m3/Sm3]

In-Place Oil Recoverable Oil Resources

Resources - STOIIP in AU [MM Sm3]
in AU [MM Sm3]

Recovery Factor in AU [decimal]

69
Eagle Ford Analog – Ultimate Recoverable Resources (EUR)

EUR/well (Eagle Ford) EUR/well (adapted)

Min 17,380 bbl 0.0027 MM Sm3 10,000 bbl 0.0016 MM Sm3

Central 115,282 bbl 0.018 MM Sm3 100,000 bbl 0.0159 MM Sm3

Max 261,326 bbl 0.0415 MM Sm3 600,000 bbl 0.0954 MM Sm3

SPE 158207 [http://gswindell.com/sp158207.pdf], Eagle Ford Shale - An Early Look at Ultimate Recovery, Gary S. Swindell, SPE
Resources in Segment = Assessment Unit (AU)

in place

recoverable

recovery
factor

In-Place Oil Recoverable Oil Resources

Resources - STOIIP in AU [MM Sm3]
in AU [MM Sm3]

Segment = AU Recovery Factor [decimal]

 Petroleum Resource Assessment Workflow
for conventionals and unconventionals

G&G Data Analysis Risks

Petroleum Statistical
into and and
Systems Analysis
Model Mapping Resources

Interpretation, mapping Petroleum Systems Risk Mapping and Statistical assessment of Resource
of Gross Depositional Modeling of maturation, definition of conventional and Mapping and
Environments and expulsion vs. retention, Assessment Units unconventional Reporting
model construction migration and (ASU) hydrocarbon resources
accumulation

72
 Petroleum Resource Assessment Workflow
for conventionals and unconventionals

G&G Data Analysis Risks

Petroleum Statistical
into and and
Systems Analysis
Model Mapping Resources

Benefits:
- Single software platform with industry-standard software tools
- Petroleum Systems Modeling can handle all conventional and unconventional hydrocarbons
- Unique geology based and fully auditable resource assessment methodology which
supports unbiased portfolio management

73