LatinFocus Consensus Forecast - 2020 - 06 PDF

LATINFOCUS
CONSENSUSFORECAST
Latin America • June 2020
SUMMARY 2
NEWS IN FOCUS 7
COVID-19 TRACKER 20
CALENDAR 21
ARGENTINA 22
BRAZIL 36
CHILE 52
COLOMBIA 67
MEXICO 82
PERU 98
VENEZUELA 113
OTHER COUNTRIES 121
BOLIVIA 121
ECUADOR 124
PARAGUAY 130
URUGUAY 133
NOTES 139
Contributors
PUBLICATION DATE 16 June 2020 JAVIER COLATO
FORECASTS COLLECTED 9 June - 14 June 2020 LATIN AMERICA ECONOMIST
INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 14 June 2020
ARNE POHLMAN THOMAS FENGE RICARD TORNÉ
NEXT EDITION 14 July 2020 Chief Economist Head of Data Solutions Head of Data Analysis
ANGELA BOUZANIS WILLIAM O’CONNELL JOSÉ DANIEL MARÍN

Lead Economist Editor Data Scientist
NICOLAS J. AGUILAR EDWARD GARDNER JOAN ARGILAGÓS

Economist Economist Data Analyst
HANNA ANDERSSON JAN LAMMERSEN FREDERICO T. ABREU
Economist Economist Junior Data Analyst
MASSIMO BASSETTI OLIVER REYNOLDS LAURA AZLOR
STEVEN BURKE ALMANAS STANAPEDIS DAVID CATALÁN
OLGA COSCODAN STEPHEN VOGADO MOHAMMED ESSABAOUNI
STÉPHANIE HOBEICHE
Junior Data Analyst
MAR LOBATO
Junior Data Analyst
YULIANNA VALENCIA
Junior Data Analyst
SARA VALVERDE
Junior Data Analyst
BENCE VÁRADI
Junior Data Scientist
FOCUSECONOMICS Summary Summary June 2020
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
World 3.5 3.2 2.6 -3.7 5.2 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.3 2.4
United States 2.4 2.9 2.3 -5.8 4.8 2.1 2.4 1.8 0.7 1.6
Euro Area 2.7 1.9 1.2 -8.2 5.8 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.4 1.1
China 6.9 6.7 6.1 1.6 7.5 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.3 2.1
Japan 2.2 0.3 0.7 -4.7 2.6 0.5 1.0 0.5 -0.1 0.2
Latin America 1.8 1.6 0.8 -6.3 3.7 6.4 8.1 7.6 6.2 6.6
Centam & Caribbean 2.1 1.9 2.6 -3.5 3.4 3.2 1.8 1.9 1.1 2.2
Chile 1.2 3.9 1.1 -4.4 4.1 2.3 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.8
Mexico 2.1 2.2 -0.3 -7.5 2.9 6.8 4.8 2.8 2.9 3.3
Mercosur 1.7 0.5 0.5 -6.7 3.7 8.1 13.2 13.5 11.3 11.5
Argentina 2.7 -2.5 -2.2 -8.8 4.6 24.8 47.6 53.8 45.4 41.9
Brazil 1.3 1.3 1.1 -6.3 3.4 2.9 3.7 4.3 1.9 3.2
Paraguay 5.0 3.4 0.0 -2.0 4.7 4.5 3.2 2.8 2.1 3.0
Uruguay 2.6 1.6 0.2 -3.7 3.9 6.6 8.0 8.8 9.9 7.8
Venezuela -15.7 -19.6 -30.8 -20.1 -2.1 863 130,060 9,585 3,992 2,071
Andean Com. 2.0 2.9 2.3 -6.0 4.7 2.5 2.3 2.4 1.6 2.3
Bolivia 4.2 4.2 2.2 -3.2 3.7 2.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.8
Colombia 1.4 2.5 3.3 -4.2 3.7 4.1 3.2 3.8 2.6 3.0
Ecuador 2.4 1.3 0.1 -7.0 3.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.8
Peru 2.5 4.0 2.2 -8.3 6.8 1.4 2.2 1.9 1.2 2.1
Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

10 9
2018 2019 2020 2021
5 6
0 3
-5 0
2018 2019 2020 2021
-10 -3
World United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America World United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
World -2.7 -2.5 -3.1 -9.6 -6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United States -3.4 -3.8 -4.6 -16.7 -10.1 -2.3 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2 -2.3
Euro Area -1.0 -0.5 -0.6 -9.2 -4.7 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.8
China -3.7 -4.1 -4.9 -6.5 -5.6 1.6 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.7
Japan -3.1 -2.4 -2.8 -8.4 -5.5 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5
Latin America -4.8 -4.4 -3.7 -8.8 -5.3 -1.6 -2.4 -1.6 -1.4 -1.5
Centam & Caribbean -3.1 -2.9 -3.1 -6.0 -4.4 0.4 -0.1 0.7 -2.1 -1.5
Chile -2.8 -1.7 -2.8 -8.6 -5.1 -2.3 -3.6 -3.9 -1.3 -1.8
Mexico -1.1 -2.1 -1.6 -4.6 -3.7 -1.8 -2.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8
Mercosur -7.2 -6.4 -5.4 -12.5 -6.6 -1.6 -2.7 -2.2 -1.1 -1.6
Argentina -5.9 -5.0 -3.8 -7.1 -4.8 -4.8 -5.0 -0.8 0.8 0.1
Brazil -7.8 -7.1 -5.9 -14.4 -7.3 -0.7 -2.2 -2.7 -1.7 -2.1
Paraguay -1.1 -1.3 -2.8 -5.2 -3.4 3.1 -0.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.8
Uruguay -3.5 -2.9 -3.4 -6.4 -4.2 0.7 0.1 0.7 -0.1 -0.6
Venezuela -16.6 -31.3 -10.0 -24.3 -15.8 6.1 8.7 9.6 1.9 2.7
Andean Com. -3.8 -3.1 -2.5 -7.3 -4.6 -2.2 -2.8 -2.7 -2.8 -2.5
Bolivia -7.8 -8.1 -7.2 -9.2 -6.8 -4.9 -4.5 -3.3 -4.2 -4.2
Colombia -3.6 -3.1 -2.5 -6.1 -4.3 -3.3 -3.9 -4.2 -4.2 -3.9
Ecuador -4.5 -3.1 -2.8 -6.1 -4.3 -0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -1.8 -0.7
Peru -3.0 -2.3 -1.6 -9.0 -4.8 -1.3 -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -1.3
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, % of GDP

0 4
-4
2
-8
-12
-2
-16
2018 2019 2020 2021
2018 2019 2020 2021
-20 -4
World United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America
Note: Latin America, Mercosur and World estimates exclude Venezuela.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |2

FOCUSECONOMICS Summary June 2020
Economic Outlook GDP Variation in % Change in Forecast

-10 -5 0 5 10 -6 -4 -2 0 2
LATIN AMERICA | 2020: -6.3%
The Covid-19 pandemic will push the region to its worst economic 2018 Mar-20
contraction in over a century this year. This will play out through
2019 Apr-20
multiple channels, including the disruption of value chains and
collapse in commodity prices, and the sudden stop in production 2020 May-20
and activity domestically. Limited fiscal space to counter the 2021 Jun-20
effects of the crisis clouds the outlook further.
ARGENTINA | 2020: -8.8%

Argentina’s already ailing economy will contract sharply this 2018 Mar-20
year. The pandemic is further hammering domestic and external 2019 Apr-20
demand, as well as worsening the country’s troubled fiscal
position. The successful outcome of debt renegotiations will be 2020 May-20
crucial to avoid further financial turmoil and gain access to external 2021 Jun-20
financing sources.
BRAZIL | 2020: -6.3%

The economy is expected to shrink this year as containment 2018 Mar-20
measures hammer household and capital spending, while weak 2019 Apr-20
global demand depresses exports. Although fiscal and liquidity-
boosting measures should cushion the blow, the duration of the 2020 May-20
crisis and political tensions pose further downside risks. 2021 Jun-20
CHILE | 2020: -4.4%

Economic activity is set to shrink this year, ravaged by Covid-19. 2018 Mar-20
The restrictions adopted by the government will take a heavy toll 2019 Apr-20
on domestic activity, while a stifled global economy is expected
to result in lower demand for Chilean exports. The uncertainties 2020 May-20
surrounding the upcoming constitutional process may also further 2021 Jun-20
restrain investment ahead.
COLOMBIA | 2020: -4.2%

2018 Mar-20
GDP is seen falling for the first time since 2000 this year, as dual
shocks from the coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices dent 2019 Apr-20
activity. The government has limited room to maneuver as low oil
prices dent revenues and due to sizable twin deficits. Risks to the 2020 May-20
outlook stem from volatile commodity prices and concerns over 2021 Jun-20
Colombia’s critical investment grade status.
MEXICO | 2020: -7.5%

The pandemic is set to push the economy into a deep recession 2018 Mar-20
this year. Mobility restrictions and rising unemployment are set 2019 Apr-20
to pummel consumer spending; investment will be derailed amid
subdued confidence; and exports will suffer amid a halt in tourism, 2020 May-20
low oil prices and weak U.S. demand. The underwhelming fiscal 2021 Jun-20
response to the crisis clouds the outlook further.
PERU | 2020: -8.3%

2018 Mar-20
Peru’s outlook darkened further this month, as the prolonged
nature of the viral outbreak ensures domestic demand will contract 2019 Apr-20
deeply this year. Uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of lifting
containment measures amid an elevated number of cases is a key 2020 May-20
risk, while subdued foreign demand for key commodity exports 2021 Jun-20
clouds the external sector’s outlook.
Note: Change in forecast refers to 2020.

Inflation Inflation in % Change in Forecast

-1.5 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.5
LATIN AMERICA | 2020: 6.2% 0 15 30 45 60
Regional inflation fell to a two-year low of 6.1% in May (April: 6.4%). 2018 Mar-20
Nearly all countries saw a decline in price pressures; notably,
2019 Apr-20
however, a spike in produce prices led inflation higher in Mexico.
Meanwhile, inflation in Argentina and Venezuela remains in the 2020 May-20
two and four digits, respectively. Regional inflation is expected to 2021 Jun-20
end 2020 at near current levels.
ARGENTINA | 2020: 45.4%

Inflation fell to 43.4% in May, from April’s 45.6%. May’s result 2018 Mar-20
marked the lowest inflation rate since September 2018. Although 2019 Apr-20
notable output gaps and low oil prices should put downside
pressure on prices, a rapid expansion of the monetary base and 2020 May-20
a weak peso will stoke inflation ahead. The return to monetary 2021 Jun-20
financing of the fiscal deficit poses further upside risks.
BRAZIL | 2020: 1.9%

Inflation dropped to 1.9% in May, from April’s 2.4%, marking an 2018 Mar-20
over two-decade low and moving further below the Central Bank’s 2019 Apr-20
target of 4.0% for the end of 2020. Despite upside pressures
from currency weakness and accommodative monetary policy, 2020 May-20
inflation should ease this year due to muted oil prices and crippled 2021 Jun-20
domestic activity.
CHILE | 2020: 2.6%

Inflation eased to 2.8% in May, from 3.4% in April and moving 2018 Mar-20
below the Central Bank’s 3.0% target. Moreover, core inflation 2019 Apr-20
fell to a one-year low, indicating that depressed economic activity
is weighing heavily on price pressures. Going forward, inflation 2020 May-20
is expected to remain largely subdued amid downbeat domestic 2021 Jun-20

demand.
COLOMBIA | 2020: 2.6%

Inflation dropped to 2.9% in May from April’s 3.5%, marking the 2018 Mar-20
lowest reading since June 2014. Inflation lies around the midpoint 2019 Apr-20
of the Central Bank’s target band of 3.0% plus or minus 1.0
percentage point. Contracting economic activity should keep price 2020 May-20
pressures in check ahead. 2021 Jun-20
MEXICO | 2020: 2.9%

Inflation rebounded from April’s over four-year low of 2.1% to 2018 Mar-20
2.8% in May, thus moving closer to the midpoint of Banxico’s 2019 Apr-20
2.0%–4.0% target range. Core inflation, meanwhile, continues to
prove sticky, hovering at 3.5%–4.0% for over two years now. Price 2020 May-20
pressures are expected to remain contained ahead in part due to 2021 Jun-20
the sizeable output gap.
PERU | 2020: 1.2%

Inflation ticked up slightly to 1.8% in May from 1.7% in April, 2018 Mar-20
moving closer to the midpoint of the Central Bank’s 1.0–4.0% 2019 Apr-20
target range. However, inflation should ease this year as subdued
domestic activity, a loose labor market and low energy prices 2020 May-20
suppress upward price pressures. 2021 Jun-20
Note: Change in forecast refers to 2020.

Monetary Policy Interest rate in % Change in Forecast

LATIN AMERICA | 2020: 6.11% 0 15 30 45 60 -4 -2 0 2 4
Over the past month, Colombia’s central bank cut its policy Mar-20
2018
rate to a new record low to further support the economy amid
Apr-20
the coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices, while policymakers 2019
in Paraguay and Peru opted to stand pat. The rest of monetary 2020 May-20
authorities are scheduled to meet later in June. Overall, regulators

Jun-20
2021
are expected to continue loosening policy ahead.
ARGENTINA | 2020: 38.01%

On 7 May, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) launched a 2018 Mar-20
special credit line worth ARS 22 billion for micro-, small- and Apr-20
2019
medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) with no access to credit.
Meanwhile, available figures show the growth in money supply 2020 May-20
moderated in May following a record-high in April. The BCRA is Jun-20

2021
seen loosening its monetary policy stance ahead.
BRAZIL | 2020: 2.20%

The Central Bank cut the SELIC rate to 3.00% from 3.75% at its 2018 Mar-20
5–6 May meeting to shore up the economy against the coronavirus 2019 Apr-20
crisis. A majority of panelists expect further policy loosening this
year, while the Bank signaled that further deteriorating economic 2020 May-20
conditions could prompt another rate cut at its 16–17 June 2021 Jun-20
meeting.
CHILE | 2020: 0.49%

At its 6 May meeting, the Central Bank left the monetary policy 2018 Mar-20
rate unchanged at 0.50%. Meanwhile, the unconventional liquidity 2019 Apr-20

measures deployed in March have so far helped commercial
lenders meet the jump in demand for credit, at relatively low 2020 May-20
interest rates. Our panelists largely expect the rate to remain 2021 Jun-20
unchanged for the rest of the year.
COLOMBIA | 2020: 2.27%

On 29 May, the Central Bank decided to cut the policy rate to a 2018 Mar-20
new historical low of 2.75% to support the economy against the 2019 Apr-20
grim panorama. The move marked the third consecutive cut. Most
of our analysts see the policy rate falling further by year-end amid 2020 May-20
contained inflation and depressed activity. 2021 Jun-20
MEXICO | 2020: 4.38%

At its 14 May meeting, Banxico unanimously decided to slash the 2018 Mar-20
target rate by 50 basis points to 5.50%, the lowest since November 2019 Apr-20
2016. The economic blow dealt by Covid-19 and subdued short-
term inflationary expectations underpinned Banxico’s decision. 2020 May-20
The next meeting is scheduled for 25 June. All of our panelists 2021 Jun-20
see Banxico further easing its stance by year-end.
PERU | 2020: 0.25%

On 11 June, the Central Bank of Peru held monetary policy rates 2018 Mar-20
steady at 0.25% for the second meeting in a row. The hold came 2019 Apr-20
amid a mild uptick in inflation in May and reflected the Bank’s
desire to monitor the full impact of April’s 100-basis-point cut. 2020 May-20
However, the Bank maintained its expansionary tone, reiterating 2021 Jun-20
its readiness to ease monetary policy if necessary.
Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. For rate details please see country page.
Change in forecast refers to 2020.

Exchange Rate Variation in % Change in Forecast

LATIN AMERICA | 2020: -17.5% -60 -40 -20 0 20 -12 -8 -4 0 4
Currency performance across the region was mixed in recent
2018 Mar-20
weeks. Notably, major currencies recouped some of the heavy
losses experienced during March’s coronavirus-induced emerging- 2019 Apr-20
market asset sell-off, with the Brazilian real and Mexican peso in 2020 May-20
particular rallying against the USD. As a whole, currencies are
2021 Jun-20
expected to depreciate much more sharply this year from 2019.
ARGENTINA | 2020: -32.4%

On 12 June, the ARS traded at 69.44 per USD, a 3.0% depreciation 2018 Mar-20
from the same day in May. The FX is managed by the Central Bank 2019 Apr-20
to avoid abrupt variations. The prolonged restructuring process
coupled with dire economic data exerted downside pressure on 2020 May-20
the currency. Meanwhile, the parallel-market dollar was priced at 2021 Jun-20
a significantly higher rate of around 121.00 ARS per USD.
BRAZIL | 2020: -24.4%

The real recovered some of its losses since the beginning of the 2018 Mar-20
year over the past month amid improved sentiment in the global 2019 Apr-20
financial markets and a rebound in demand for riskier assets. On
12 June it traded at BRL 5.05 per USD, marking a 16.5% month- 2020 May-20
on-month appreciation. Despite this upturn, the real is projected to 2021 Jun-20
weaken somewhat going forward.
CHILE | 2020: -6.3%

The peso gained ground against the U.S. dollar in the past month, 2018 Mar-20
bolstered by rising copper prices and the approved IMF credit line. 2019 Apr-20
On 12 June, the CLP traded at 792 per USD, a 4.1% appreciation
from the same day last month. Going forward, most analysts see 2020 May-20
the peso weakening as uncertainties regarding the constitutional 2021 Jun-20

process linger.
COLOMBIA | 2020: -14.0%

The Colombian peso has recovered some lost ground after hitting 2018 Mar-20
a record low in March, helped by revived oil prices and a weak 2019 Apr-20
U.S. dollar. On 12 June, the COP ended the day at 3,779 per
USD, marking a 2.7% appreciation from the same day last month. 2020 May-20
The peso is seen remaining under pressure this year amid low oil 2021 Jun-20
prices and a fragile external position.
MEXICO | 2020: -17.2%

Over the past month, the peso recovered some of its heavy 2018 Mar-20
coronavirus-inflicted losses in March on the back of a weaker 2019 Apr-20

greenback and improving global market sentiment. On 12 June,
the MXN traded at 22.23 per USD, appreciating 9.8% month-on- 2020 May-20
month. The peso is expected to hold broadly steady against the 2021 Jun-20
USD this year but remains vulnerable to market volatility.
PERU | 2020: -3.1%

The sol weakened slightly in recent weeks as the impact of looser 2018 Mar-20
monetary policy outweighed recovering interest in emerging- 2019 Apr-20

market currencies. On 12 June, the PEN ended the day at 3.47
per USD, depreciating 0.9% from the same day in May, with the 2020 May-20
currency expected to remain broadly stable through to the end of 2021 Jun-20
the year.
Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive

number means currency is gaining value against USD. Change in forecast refers to 2020.

News in Focus
News in Focus
Argentina: Historic blow to industrial production in April BRAZIL | Gross Domestic Product | variation in %
amid lockdown 12 14
Industrial production collapsed a record-low 33.5% year-on-year Quarter-on-quarter s.a. (left scale)
Year-on-year (right scale)

in April, following March’s already sharp 16.5% plunge. April saw a
6 7
broad-based contraction in all sub-components of the index.
% %
0 0
Brazil: GDP contracts at fastest pace in nearly five years in
Q1
The economy shrank in the first quarter of 2020 as the shock -6 -7
from the Covid-19 pandemic and associated social distancing

measures constrained activity. Seasonally-adjusted GDP fell -12 -14
Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021
1.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, contrasting the 0.4% expansion in
Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-
Q4 2019 and driven mainly by a decline in private consumption. year variation %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
Brazil: Real gains back ground amid improved market
sentiment
After falling to a record low in May amid Covid-19-induced market
turmoil, the currency has strengthened in the past month as
countries across the globe reopen their economies, improving
market sentiment. On 12 June the real traded at BRL 5.05 per
USD, a hefty 16.5% appreciation month-on-month.
COLOMBIA | Monetary Policy Rate | in %
8
Chile: The economy grows marginally in Q1 2020
Economic activity bounced back in the first quarter, with GDP
expanding 0.4% on an annual basis (Q4 2019: -2.1% year-on-
6
year) largely on the back of a rebound in exports.
%
Chile: Economic activity plunges at the fastest rate on record

4
in April
In April, the IMACEC economic activity index sank 14.1% on an
annual basis (March: -3.5% year-on-year), marking the largest
drop on record as the measures to curtail the spread of Covid-19 2
Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20
ravaged the economy.
Note: Central Bank policy rate in %.
Source: Colombia Central Bank (BanRep).
Colombia: BanRep slashes policy rate to new record low

On 29 May, Colombia’s Central Bank (BanRep) decided to cut the
benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to a new record low
of 2.75%. Falling inflation and grim economic conditions fueled
BanRep’s decision to cut rates once again in May.
Mexico: Economy shrinks at fastest pace in over a decade in MEXICO | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
Q1 on initial coronavirus impact 26
GDP fell 1.4% on an annual basis in Q1, less than the 1.6% decline
of the preliminary estimate (Q4 2019: -0.7% yoy). Industrial sector 24
output tumbled 2.9% year-on-year while services activity—the

22
economy’s growth engine—declined 0.7%.
20
Mexico: Peso recoups some its steep coronavirus-induced
losses in June 18
A weakened U.S. dollar and improving global market sentiment

helped the peso gain ground in recent weeks. On 12 June, the 16
Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20
peso ended at 22.23 per USD, marking a 9.8% appreciation

Note: Daily spot exchange rate of Mexican peso (MXN) against U.S. dollar (USD).
month-on-month. That said, the currency was down 13.7% year- Source: Refinitiv.
on-year and has lost 14.8% of its value year-to-date.

Population, millions Population, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Latin America
Latin America 595.7 601.5 607.2 612.8 618.2 623.5 628.8 Mercosur
Chile 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.1
Brazil
Mexico 124.7 125.9 127.1 128.2 129.4 130.5 131.5
Mercosur 263.6 265.7 267.7 269.7 271.6 273.5 275.3 Mexico
Argentina 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1 46.6 47.1 47.6 Andean Com.
Brazil 208.5 210.0 211.4 212.7 214.0 215.3 216.5 Colombia
Paraguay 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7
Argentina
Uruguay 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6
Venezuela Peru
28.9 27.5 25.9 24.8 - - -
Andean Com. 110.4 111.7 112.9 114.2 115.4 116.6 117.8 Venezuela
Bolivia 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.4 Chile
Colombia 49.8 50.4 50.9 51.4 51.9 52.3 52.8 Ecuador
Ecuador 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.5
Bolivia
Peru 32.2 32.5 32.8 33.1 33.5 33.8 34.1
Paraguay
Uruguay
625
0 250 500 750
2018 2019 2020 2021
500
Notes and sources
Note: Population, millions. Latin America and Mercosur forecasts

375 exclude Venezuela.
Sources: The International Monetary Fund (IMF).
250
Given the current economic conditions in Venezuela,

FocusEconomics has discontinued providing forecasts for the
125 long-term as of the August 2018 edition of LatinFocus. We hope
to resume providing these forecasts once reliable data becomes
available. Accordingly, Venezuela has been removed from the
Latin America and Mercosur regional aggregates.
0
Latin America Mercosur Brazil Mexico Andean Com. Argentina
GDP, USD billions GDP, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Latin America
Latin America 5,252 5,119 4,241 4,562 4,967 5,325 5,683
Mercosur
Chile 298 282 243 267 291 313 335
Brazil
Mexico 1,223 1,259 1,038 1,128 1,229 1,312 1,396
Mercosur 2,524 2,370 1,848 1,980 2,174 2,346 2,518 Mexico
Argentina 540 436 391 417 457 496 534 Andean Com.
Brazil 1,885 1,839 1,371 1,473 1,622 1,749 1,876 Argentina
Paraguay 40.4 38.2 36.5 39.1 41.7 44.5 47.3
Colombia
Uruguay 58.5 56.1 48.5 50.9 53.8 57.2 60.7
Venezuela Chile
98.4 67.4 60.3 58.3 - - -
Andean Com. 706 703 625 675 733 785 837 Peru
Bolivia 40.3 40.9 40.1 42.6 44.6 46.8 48.9 Ecuador
Colombia 333 324 276 298 330 358 386 Venezuela
Ecuador 108 107 101 105 111 116 121
Uruguay
Peru 225 231 209 228 247 264 281
Bolivia
Paraguay
6,000
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
2018 2019 2020 2021
Notes and sources

4,000
Note: GDP in current USD billions. Latin America and Mercosur
forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
2,000
0

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Paraguay
Latin America 1.6 0.8 -6.3 3.7 3.0 2.8 2.5 Bolivia
Chile 3.9 1.1 -4.4 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.2
Uruguay
Mexico 2.2 -0.3 -7.5 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.1
Mercosur 0.5 0.5 -6.7 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.4 Colombia
Argentina -2.5 -2.2 -8.8 4.6 2.7 2.6 2.4 Chile
Brazil 1.3 1.1 -6.3 3.4 2.9 2.6 2.3 Andean Com.
Paraguay 3.4 0.0 -2.0 4.7 4.2 4.1 4.0
Latin America
Uruguay 1.6 0.2 -3.7 3.9 3.0 2.7 2.5
Venezuela Brazil
-19.6 -30.8 -20.1 -2.1 - - -
Andean Com. 2.9 2.3 -6.0 4.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 Mercosur
Bolivia 4.2 2.2 -3.2 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 Ecuador
Colombia 2.5 3.3 -4.2 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 Mexico
Ecuador 1.3 0.1 -7.0 3.0 2.4 2.1 1.9
Peru
Peru 4.0 2.2 -8.3 6.8 4.0 3.8 3.5
Argentina
Venezuela -20.1
6
-9 -6 -3 0
3
Notes and sources
Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Latin

0 America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
-3
-6
2018 2019 2020 2021

-9
GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Uruguay
Latin America 8,816 8,511 6,985 7,445 8,035 8,540 9,038
Chile
Chile 15,915 14,766 12,465 13,583 14,669 15,678 16,679
Mexico 9,805 9,999 8,169 8,798 9,502 10,060 10,610 Argentina
Mercosur 9,574 8,919 6,902 7,342 8,005 8,578 9,145 Mexico
Argentina 12,123 9,679 8,595 9,062 9,816 10,528 11,223 Latin America
Brazil 9,040 8,760 6,487 6,923 7,576 8,122 8,664
Mercosur
Paraguay 5,727 5,335 5,033 5,315 5,595 5,892 6,181
Uruguay 16,684 15,938 13,730 14,364 15,136 16,045 16,953 Brazil
Venezuela 3,411 2,448 2,325 2,355 - - - Peru
Andean Com. 6,399 6,291 5,538 5,907 6,347 6,730 7,104 Ecuador
Bolivia 3,540 3,541 3,418 3,580 3,698 3,817 3,931
Andean Com.
Colombia 6,689 6,421 5,424 5,805 6,366 6,844 7,312
Ecuador 6,319 6,222 5,746 5,930 6,150 6,349 6,540 Colombia
Peru 7,005 7,060 6,361 6,888 7,380 7,817 8,246 Paraguay
Bolivia
Venezuela
13,000
0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000
2018 2019 2020 2021
Notes and sources

10,000
Note: GDP per capita in current USD. Latin America and Mercosur
7,000
4,000

Consumption, annual variation in % Consumption Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Paraguay
Latin America 2.0 1.2 -6.5 4.0 3.2 3.0 2.7 Bolivia
Chile 3.7 1.1 -5.6 4.3 3.6 3.3 3.0
Uruguay
Mexico 2.3 0.6 -7.0 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.4
Colombia
Mercosur 1.1 0.3 -7.0 4.0 3.2 2.9 2.5
Argentina -2.4 -6.4 -9.4 4.8 3.1 2.9 2.7 Chile
Brazil 2.1 1.8 -6.6 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.5 Andean Com.
Paraguay 4.3 1.3 -3.1 5.5 4.8 4.5 4.2 Latin America
Uruguay 1.5 0.5 -3.8 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.6
Brazil
Venezuela -20.1 -31.0 -22.8 -0.9 - - -
Andean Com. 3.2 3.5 -5.8 4.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 Ecuador
Bolivia 4.3 3.7 -3.2 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 Mexico
Colombia 3.0 4.5 -4.5 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.5 Mercosur
Ecuador 2.1 1.5 -6.9 3.6 2.6 2.3 2.1
Peru
Peru 3.8 3.0 -7.5 6.2 3.8 3.6 3.4
Argentina
Venezuela -22.8
5 -12 -8 -4 0
Notes and sources

0
Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Latin America
and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
-5
2018 2019 2020 2021
-10
Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Paraguay
Latin America 3.4 -1.1 -13.0 5.2 4.2 3.8 3.4 Uruguay
Chile 4.8 4.2 -10.3 5.9 5.2 4.5 3.9
Bolivia
Mexico 0.9 -4.9 -14.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4
Mercosur 1.8 -1.3 -14.2 6.9 4.9 4.3 3.6 Colombia
Argentina -5.7 -15.9 -22.1 8.8 4.8 4.3 3.8 Chile
Brazil 3.9 2.2 -12.5 6.4 5.0 4.3 3.6 Brazil
Paraguay 6.9 -6.6 -4.3 5.6 4.6 4.4 4.2
Latin America
Uruguay -2.7 1.4 -5.6 6.9 5.5 4.1 2.7
Andean Com.
Venezuela -37.5 -37.0 -25.8 -5.4 - - -
Andean Com. 2.7 2.2 -13.3 6.2 4.6 4.4 4.1 Mercosur
Bolivia 3.2 -3.5 -7.7 5.1 3.7 3.2 2.7 Mexico
Colombia 1.5 4.3 -8.4 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 Ecuador
Ecuador 2.0 -3.4 -15.1 4.2 3.5 3.2 3.0
Peru
Peru 4.7 2.9 -20.0 9.9 5.7 4.9 4.1
Argentina
Venezuela -25.8
9
-24 -18 -12 -6 0
0 Notes and sources
Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Latin America

and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
-9
-18
2018 2019 2020 2021
-27
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 10

Industrial Production, annual variation in % Industrial Production Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Chile
Latin America 0.9 -1.0 -8.1 4.3 3.7 3.2 2.8
Chile 2.8 0.8 -2.4 2.1 - - - Uruguay
Mexico 0.5 -1.7 -7.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1
Ecuador
Mercosur -0.2 -2.1 -10.1 5.3 4.4 3.7 2.9
Argentina -5.0 -6.4 -12.9 5.2 4.2 3.3 2.4 Colombia
Brazil 0.8 -1.1 -9.6 5.4 4.6 3.8 3.0
Uruguay Mexico
11.5 -1.5 -3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3
Andean Com. 3.8 0.1 -9.3 5.4 4.2 3.7 3.4 Latin America
Colombia 3.8 1.5 -6.3 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.4
Ecuador -1.0 0.1 -3.5 2.7 2.4 2.3 - Andean Com.
Peru 6.2 -1.7 -16.2 8.6 5.7 4.5 3.3 Brazil
Mercosur
Argentina
Peru
10
-20 -15 -10 -5 0
5
Notes and sources
Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %. Data for Chile

0 and Ecuador refers to manufacturing. Latin America and Mercosur
Sources: National statistical institutes.
-5
-10
2018 2019 2020 2021
-15
Retail Sales, annual variation in % Retail Sales Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Latin America 2.5 2.4 -6.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 - Colombia
Chile 4.4 1.6 -5.0 4.3 4.1 3.5 -
Mexico 1.5 2.0 -5.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7
Brazil 2.3 1.8 -7.6 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.1 Chile
Colombia 5.4 8.1 5.0 5.9 6.2 6.2 -
Peru 2.6 3.0 -14.2 8.0 5.0 3.5 -
Mexico
Latin America
10 Brazil
Peru
5
-18 -12 -6 0 6
Notes and sources

-5 Note: Retail sales, real annual variation in %. Data for Peru refers to
commerce sector.
-10
2018 2019 2020 2021
-15
Latin America Brazil Mexico Colombia Chile Peru

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Venezuela 31.2
Latin America 8.5 8.4 11.0 10.1 9.6 9.2 8.8
Colombia
Chile 7.4 7.2 10.1 9.1 8.5 8.2 7.8
Mexico 3.3 3.5 5.5 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.1 Brazil
Mercosur 11.4 11.3 13.6 13.0 12.4 11.8 11.4 Mercosur
Argentina 9.2 9.8 13.0 12.3 11.4 10.6 9.8
Argentina
Brazil 12.3 11.9 13.9 13.5 13.0 12.4 11.9
Paraguay 5.6 5.7 10.6 8.0 6.8 6.2 - Andean Com.
Uruguay 8.4 8.9 11.5 10.0 9.3 8.8 8.4 Uruguay
Venezuela 6.9 22.7 31.2 29.6 - - -
Latin America
Andean Com. 7.7 8.0 12.7 10.9 10.2 9.6 9.0
Colombia 9.7 10.5 16.1 13.7 12.3 11.3 10.3 Paraguay
Ecuador 3.7 3.8 8.9 9.0 - - - Chile
Peru 6.7 6.6 10.0 8.1 7.5 7.3 7.2
Peru
Ecuador
Mexico
16
3 6 9 12 15 18
2018 2019 2020 2021
12 Notes and sources
Note: Unemployment rate as % of active population (for details see notes

in country). Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
8
0
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Mexico
Latin America -4.4 -3.7 -8.8 -5.3 -4.6 -4.2 -3.9
Paraguay
Chile -1.7 -2.8 -8.6 -5.1 -4.1 -3.3 -2.5
Mexico -2.1 -1.6 -4.6 -3.7 -3.4 -3.2 -2.9 Ecuador
Mercosur -6.4 -5.4 -12.5 -6.6 -6.0 -5.6 -5.2 Colombia
Argentina -5.0 -3.8 -7.1 -4.8 -4.2 -3.7 -3.1 Uruguay
Brazil -7.1 -5.9 -14.4 -7.3 -6.7 -6.3 -5.9
Argentina
Paraguay -1.3 -2.8 -5.2 -3.4 -2.8 -2.5 -2.1
Uruguay -2.9 -3.4 -6.4 -4.2 -3.4 -2.9 -2.4 Andean Com.
Venezuela -31.3 -10.0 -24.3 -15.8 - - - Chile
Andean Com. -3.1 -2.5 -7.3 -4.6 -3.5 -2.8 -2.1 Latin America
Bolivia -8.1 -7.2 -9.2 -6.8 -6.0 -5.2 -4.3 Peru
Colombia -3.1 -2.5 -6.1 -4.3 -3.1 -2.7 -2.3
Bolivia
Ecuador -3.1 -2.8 -6.1 -4.3 -3.0 -1.9 -0.8
Peru -2.3 -1.6 -9.0 -4.8 -3.7 -2.8 -2.0 Mercosur
Brazil
Venezuela -24.3
0
-15 -12 -9 -6 -3
-3
Notes and sources
Note: Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.

-6 Argentina: Non-financial public sector.
Brazil: Public sector borrowing requirement.
Chile: Central government.
Colombia: Central government.
-9
Ecuador: Non-financial public sector.
Mexico: Non-financial public sector.
Peru: Non-financial public sector.
-12 Venezuela: General government.
Sources: National statistical institutes, finance ministries and IMF.
2018 2019 2020 2021
-15

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Venezuela 3,992
Latin America 8.1 7.6 6.2 6.6 6.0 5.5 4.8
Argentina 45.4
Chile 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1
Mercosur
Mexico 4.8 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5
Mercosur 13.2 13.5 11.3 11.5 9.8 8.5 6.7 Uruguay
Argentina 47.6 53.8 45.4 41.9 33.7 27.1 20.5 Latin America
Brazil 3.7 4.3 1.9 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 Mexico
Paraguay 3.2 2.8 2.1 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.0
Colombia
Uruguay 8.0 8.8 9.9 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.1
Chile
Venezuela 130,060 9,585 3,992 2,071 - - -
Andean Com. 2.3 2.4 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 Paraguay
Bolivia 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 Brazil
Colombia 3.2 3.8 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 Andean Com.
Ecuador 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 1.5 1.9 2.3
Bolivia
Peru 2.2 1.9 1.2 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5
Peru
Ecuador
60 -4 0 4 8 12
2018 2019 2020 2021
Note: End-of-year variation of consumer price index in %. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
30
15
0
Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Latin America Argentina 38.01
11.64 9.23 6.11 6.22 6.46 6.52 6.44
Chile 2.75 1.75 0.49 1.01 1.81 2.54 3.28 Mercosur
Mexico 8.25 7.25 4.38 4.39 4.68 4.86 5.04
Mercosur 17.74 13.82 9.97 9.84 9.55 9.23 8.60 Bolivia
Argentina 59.25 55.00 38.01 33.01 28.06 23.88 19.70 Latin America
Brazil 6.50 4.50 2.20 3.48 4.50 5.21 5.92
Paraguay 5.25 4.00 1.25 2.00 2.90 3.85 - Mexico
Uruguay 5.30 5.86 - - - - -
Colombia
Venezuela 15.00 24.00 - - - - -
Andean Com. 4.20 4.14 1.97 2.61 3.41 3.87 4.01 Brazil
Bolivia 8.04 8.40 8.86 8.81 8.75 8.72 -
Andean Com.
Colombia 4.25 4.25 2.27 2.98 3.81 4.14 4.48
Ecuador 5.62 6.22 - - - - - Paraguay
Peru 2.75 2.25 0.25 0.95 1.91 2.63 3.35
Chile
Peru
60
0 3 6 9 12
2018 2019 2020 2021

Notes and sources
40
Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. Long-term forecasts
(2022-2024) are based on both end-of-period and average-of-period
projections. Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Argentina: 7-day LELIQ rate.
Bolivia: Prime lending rate.
Brazil: SELIC rate.
20 Chile: Monetary policy rate.
Colombia: Central Bank intervention rate.
Ecuador: 91-120 days deposit rate.
Mexico: 1-day target interbank rate.
Paraguay: Monetary policy rate.
Peru: Monetary policy rate.
0 Uruguay: 30-day deposit rate.
Latin America Mercosur Brazil Mexico Andean Com. Argentina Venezuela: 90-day average deposit rate.
Sources: National central banks.

Exchange Rates vs. USD, appreciation in % Appreciation versus USD, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Bolivia
Latin America -12.7 -4.2 -17.5 1.4 -1.4 -1.7 -1.3
Paraguay
Chile -11.3 -7.7 -6.3 4.6 1.4 0.7 0.7
Mexico 0.0 3.8 -17.2 3.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 Peru
Mercosur -22.1 -9.9 -25.4 0.6 -3.1 -3.4 -2.5 Chile
Argentina -50.6 -37.1 -32.4 -24.2 -19.0 -16.9 -14.5
Andean Com.
Brazil -14.7 -3.4 -24.4 7.8 1.4 0.4 0.4
Paraguay -6.3 -7.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 Colombia
Uruguay -11.1 -13.1 -15.5 -3.9 -4.5 -3.7 -3.5 Uruguay
Venezuela -98.4 -98.6 -97.4 - - - - Mexico
Andean Com. -6.0 0.0 -8.6 2.2 1.0 0.7 0.7
Bolivia Latin America
0.0 0.0 -0.8 -1.4 -3.0 -3.2 -3.1
Colombia -8.1 -1.2 -14.0 4.1 1.8 1.4 1.4 Brazil
Peru -3.9 1.7 -3.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 Mercosur
Argentina
Venezuela -97.4
20 -35 -28 -21 -14 -7 0
0 Notes and sources
Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus

USD in %. Positive number means currency is gaining value against
USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative information.
-20 Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: Central banks and Refinitiv.
-40
2018 2019 2020 2021
-60
Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Venezuela
Latin America -2.4 -1.6 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7
Chile -3.6 -3.9 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -2.3 -2.6 Argentina
Mexico -2.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 Uruguay
Mercosur -2.7 -2.2 -1.1 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 Mexico
Argentina -5.0 -0.8 0.8 0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1.2
Paraguay
Brazil -2.2 -2.7 -1.7 -2.1 -2.1 -2.0 -2.0
Peru
Paraguay -0.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4
Uruguay 0.1 0.7 -0.1 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 Mercosur
Venezuela 8.7 9.6 1.9 2.7 - - - Chile
Andean Com. -2.8 -2.7 -2.8 -2.5 -2.3 -2.1 -1.9 Latin America
Bolivia -4.5 -3.3 -4.2 -4.2 -3.8 -3.5 -3.1
Brazil
Colombia -3.9 -4.2 -4.2 -3.9 -3.7 -3.5 -3.4
Ecuador
Ecuador -1.2 -0.1 -1.8 -0.7 0.0 0.5 1.0
Peru -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 -1.0 Andean Com.
Colombia
Bolivia
2
-6 -4 -2 0 2
0 Notes and sources
Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
-2
-4
2018 2019 2020 2021
-6

Exports, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Chile
Latin America 7.6 -0.6 -13.7 9.5 7.6 6.2 -
Chile 9.3 -7.1 -9.3 10.4 8.7 7.9 7.1 Uruguay
Mexico 10.1 2.2 -15.8 9.0 6.7 5.4 4.0 Brazil
Mercosur 8.5 -3.6 -12.1 8.7 7.6 6.1 4.6 Mercosur
Argentina 5.3 5.4 -13.6 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8
Bolivia
Brazil 9.9 -5.8 -11.4 8.9 7.5 5.6 3.7
Paraguay 2.5 -7.6 -18.6 15.8 13.1 10.5 8.0 Argentina
Uruguay 4.3 -0.3 -11.3 6.8 6.0 5.9 5.9 Latin America
Venezuela -1.0 -24.4 -39.5 2.1 - - - Mexico
Andean Com. 10.3 -2.3 -21.3 15.2 11.8 9.6 7.4
Peru
Bolivia 9.4 -0.9 -13.4 7.6 7.4 6.9 6.4
Paraguay
Colombia 11.7 -4.7 -25.4 14.9 13.3 12.0 10.6
Ecuador 13.1 3.2 -28.1 22.4 15.1 9.9 4.7 Andean Com.
Peru 8.1 -2.9 -15.9 13.9 10.0 8.1 6.2 Colombia
Ecuador
Venezuela
16
-40 -30 -20 -10 0
8
Notes and sources
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports. Latin

0 America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
-8
-16
2018 2019 2020 2021
-24
Imports, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Uruguay
Latin America 10.6 -3.2 -15.2 10.6 7.8 7.0 -
Chile Bolivia
14.8 -6.9 -17.0 13.9 10.1 7.9 5.6
Mexico 10.4 -1.9 -16.2 10.1 7.6 6.0 4.5 Brazil
Mercosur 13.0 -8.0 -15.4 12.7 10.6 9.3 8.0 Latin America
Argentina -2.2 -25.0 -20.0 16.9 12.3 11.8 11.2 Mercosur
Brazil 20.2 -2.1 -14.4 11.5 10.1 8.6 7.2
Mexico
Paraguay 12.0 -5.2 -16.7 14.5 11.8 9.4 7.1
Uruguay 5.1 -5.8 -9.5 11.0 8.7 7.6 6.4 Paraguay
Venezuela 6.5 -23.9 -25.4 5.6 - - - Peru
Andean Com. 11.1 -0.4 -18.3 11.1 9.6 8.3 6.9 Chile
Bolivia 7.8 -3.2 -9.6 8.6 7.0 6.0 4.9
Colombia
Colombia 12.1 2.5 -17.9 7.0 8.1 8.3 8.4
Ecuador 15.8 -2.6 -24.8 17.3 12.0 7.4 2.9 Andean Com.
Peru 8.3 -1.9 -17.0 13.8 10.8 9.2 7.6 Argentina
Ecuador
Venezuela
30
-26 -22 -18 -14 -10 -6
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
0
-15
2018 2019 2020 2021
-30

International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Brazil
Latin America 9.3 9.4 10.7 9.8 9.3 8.9 8.6
Chile 6.8 7.4 8.3 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.6 Peru
Mexico 4.5 4.8 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.5 Mercosur
Mercosur 20.7 20.6 23.0 20.6 18.9 17.5 16.0 Uruguay
Argentina 12.1 10.9 12.8 11.6 11.3 10.4 9.7
Andean Com.
Brazil 24.8 24.1 26.6 23.8 21.8 20.2 18.9
Paraguay 7.4 7.8 9.2 8.2 7.6 7.3 - Colombia
Uruguay 20.5 20.3 22.5 20.2 19.3 18.7 18.2 Argentina
Venezuela 8.3 9.2 9.8 9.0 - - - Latin America
Andean Com. 11.5 12.6 15.2 14.1 13.2 12.6 12.2
Venezuela
Bolivia 9.2 5.8 5.5 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.6
Colombia 11.7 12.6 15.1 14.4 13.5 12.8 12.0 Paraguay
Ecuador 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 Chile
Peru 17.3 20.0 24.4 22.2 20.8 19.9 19.3 Mexico
Bolivia
Ecuador
28
0 6 12 18 24 30
2018 2019 2020 2021
Note: International reserves as months of imports. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: Central banks.
14
0
External Debt, % of GDP External Debt, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Venezuela 177
Latin America 34.2 36.4 44.6 42.7 41.0 40.0 -
Chile Uruguay
61.8 70.2 85.5 79.9 75.3 72.2 -
Mexico 36.5 36.8 43.5 40.6 39.1 38.1 - Chile
Mercosur 26.0 27.8 36.3 34.4 32.4 31.2 - Argentina
Argentina 51.4 63.7 71.3 68.9 64.5 62.5 - Ecuador
Brazil 17.0 17.6 24.0 22.4 21.1 20.1 19.3
Colombia
Paraguay 39.1 41.8 48.8 48.3 47.5 46.6 45.8
Uruguay 70.8 76.2 91.4 88.9 87.9 87.0 - Paraguay
Venezuela 110 158 177 182 - - - Andean Com.
Andean Com. 37.8 40.6 47.1 46.8 46.5 46.3 - Latin America
Bolivia 33.0 36.8 41.9 43.4 44.9 46.6 48.2
Mexico
Colombia 39.6 42.7 49.8 49.3 46.9 44.9 43.1
Ecuador 40.9 48.7 56.7 56.8 54.7 53.2 - Bolivia
Peru 34.5 34.7 40.0 39.6 42.7 45.1 - Peru
Mercosur
Brazil
80
0 25 50 75 100
2018 2019 2020 2021
Note: External debt as % of GDP. Latin America and Mercosur

Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance
40
ministries.
20
0

Major Risk Indicators | EMBI Spreads and Sovereign Ratings

Sovereign Spreads (bps) Moody's S&P Fitch Ratings
May April Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Ratings Outlook
Argentina 2,627 3,472 Ca Negative D N/A RD N/A
Bolivia - - B1 Negative B+ Stable B+ Negative
Brazil 392 422 Ba2 Stable BB- Stable BB- Negative
Chile 255 306 A1 Stable A+ Negative A Negative
Colombia 291 395 Baa2 Stable BBB- Negative BBB- Negative
Ecuador 3,907 5,129 Caa3 Negative SD N/A RD N/A
Mexico 317 410 Baa1 Negative BBB Negative BBB- Stable
Paraguay - - Ba1 Stable BB Stable BB+ Stable
Peru 155 200 A3 Stable BBB+ Stable BBB+ Stable
Uruguay 243 301 Baa2 Stable BBB Stable BBB- Negative
Venezuela 27,907 22,140 C Stable SD N.M. WD -
Overview | Spread in bps Argentina Brazil
Venezuela 27,907 4,000 800

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
Ecuador
Argentina Brazil
Argentina
3,000 600
EMBI + Latin
Brazil
Colombia 2,000 400
Mexico
Uruguay
1,000 200
Chile
Peru
0 1,500 3,000 4,500 0 0

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Chile Colombia Mexico
800 800 800

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
600 600 600
400 400 400
200 200 200
0 0 0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Peru Uruguay Venezuela
800 1,000 30,000

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
Peru Uruguay Venezuela
24,000
600 750
18,000
400 500
12,000
200 250
6,000
0 0 0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Major Stock Markets | Performance in %
MSCI Price Indices (USD) National Benchmark Stock Indices (local currencies)
May 2020
Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD
Argentina 19.9 -9.5 -37.8 -19.2 15.5 8.2 11.4 -9.2
Brazil 8.4 -29.5 -36.0 -43.6 8.6 -16.1 -9.9 -24.4
Chile -7.4 -12.8 -37.1 -29.5 -7.4 -11.5 -27.6 -21.5
Colombia 2.3 -36.8 -37.6 -46.2 - - - -
Mexico 6.3 -21.8 -24.6 -28.7 -1.0 -12.6 -15.5 -17.0
Peru -2.4 -19.5 -33.7 -33.7 5.4 -14.7 -21.8 -24.1
Latin America 6.2 -26.4 -33.9 -39.2 - - - -
Emerging Markets 0.6 -7.5 -6.8 -16.5 - - - -
World 4.2 -0.6 3.5 -9.9 - - - -
Overview | month-on-month var. in % Argentina Brazil
World 250 100

Latin America
Emerging
Markets Argentina
200
Chile 75
Peru
150
Mexico
50
Argentina 100
Latin
America 25
50
Brazil Latin America
Colombia
Brazil
0 0
-8 0 8 16 24 May-14 Nov-15 May-17 Nov-18 May-20 May-14 Nov-15 May-17 Nov-18 May-20
125 150 150

Latin America
Latin America
Chile
Colombia
100
100 100
75
50 50
50
Latin America
Mexico
25 0 0
May-14 Nov-15 May-17 Nov-18 May-20 May-14 Nov-15 May-17 Nov-18 May-20 May-14 Nov-15 May-17 Nov-18 May-20
Peru
200
Latin America
Peru
150
100
50
0
May-14 Nov-15 May-17 Nov-18 May-20

Cross Exchange Rate Forecasts | Year end
United States Euro Area

U.S. Dollar (USD) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Euro (EUR) 2018 2019 2020 2021
United States - - - - United States 1.18 1.12 1.10 1.13
Japan 110 109 107 108 Japan 129 122 118 122
Euro Area 0.85 0.89 0.91 0.89 Euro Area - - - -
Argentina 37.66 59.88 88.61 117 Argentina 44.5 67.0 97.5 132
Brazil 3.88 4.02 5.32 4.93 Brazil 4.58 4.50 5.85 5.56
Chile 694 752 803 768 Chile 820 842 884 865
Colombia 3,248 3,287 3,822 3,671 Colombia 3,835 3,680 4,207 4,137
Mexico 19.65 18.93 22.87 22.13 Mexico 23.2 21.2 25.2 24.9
Peru 3.37 3.31 3.42 3.40 Peru 3.98 3.71 3.76 3.84
Venezuela 638 46,621 1,810,205 34.8 mn. Venezuela 754 52,191 1,992,429 39.2 mn.
Japan Argentina
Japanese Yen (JPY,100) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Argentine Peso (ARS) 2018 2019 2020 2021
United States 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.92 United States 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01
Japan - - - - Japan 2.91 1.81 1.21 0.93
Euro Area 0.77 0.82 0.85 0.82 Euro Area 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
Argentina 34.4 55.1 82.6 108.1 Argentina - - - -
Brazil 3.54 3.70 4.96 4.56 Brazil 0.10 0.07 0.06 0.04
Chile 633 692 748 710 Chile 18.4 12.6 9.1 6.6
Colombia 2,964 3,026 3,563 3,394 Colombia 86.2 54.9 43.1 31.4
Mexico 17.9 17.4 21.3 20.5 Mexico 0.52 0.32 0.26 0.19
Peru 3.07 3.05 3.19 3.15 Peru 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.03
Venezuela 582 42,919 1,687,627 32.2 mn. Venezuela 16.9 779 20,430 297,787
Brazil Chile
Brazilian Real (BRL) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Chilean Peso (CLP, 100) 2018 2019 2020 2021
Japan 28.2 27.0 20.2 21.9 Japan 15.8 14.4 13.4 14.1
Argentina 9.70 14.90 16.66 23.71 Argentina 5.43 7.96 11.04 15.23
Brazil - - - - Brazil 0.56 0.53 0.66 0.64
Chile 179 187 151 156 Chile - - - -
Colombia 837 818 719 744 Colombia 468 437 476 478
Mexico 5.06 4.71 4.30 4.49 Mexico 2.83 2.52 2.85 2.88
Peru 0.87 0.82 0.64 0.69 Peru 0.49 0.44 0.43 0.44
Venezuela 164 11,599 340,405 7,059,142 Venezuela 92.0 6,200 225,469 4,534,561
Colombia Mexico
Colombian Peso (COP, 1000) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Mexican Peso (MXN) 2018 2019 2020 2021
Japan 33.7 33.0 28.1 29.5 Japan 5.58 5.74 4.69 4.89
Brazil 1.20 1.22 1.39 1.34 Brazil 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.22
Chile 214 229 210 209 Chile 35.3 39.7 35.1 34.7
Colombia - - - - Colombia 165 174 167 166
Mexico 6.05 5.76 5.98 6.03 Mexico - - - -
Peru 1.04 1.01 0.89 0.93 Peru 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.15
Venezuela 197 14,182 473,631 9,485,051 Venezuela 32.5 2,462 79,136 1,573,238
Peru Venezuela
Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Venezuelan Bolívar (VES) 2018 2019 2020 2021
Japan 32.5 32.8 31.4 31.8 Japan 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brazil 1.15 1.21 1.56 1.45 Brazil 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Chile 206 227 235 226 Chile 1.09 0.02 0.00 0.00
Colombia 964 992 1,118 1,078 Colombia 5.09 0.07 0.00 0.00
Mexico 5.83 5.71 6.69 6.50 Mexico 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Peru - - - - Peru 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Venezuela 189 14,072 529,516 10.2 mn. Venezuela - - - -

Covid-19 Tracker
Coronavirus Statistics | Accumulated and Daily Data
Accumulated Case Count Accumulated Death Count

24-May 31-May 07-Jun 14-Jun 24-May 31-May 07-Jun 14-Jun
Latin America 699,914 966,146 1,261,589 1,569,288 38,814 49,977 63,327 77,553
Chile 69,102 99,688 134,150 174,293 718 1,054 1,637 3,323
Mexico 68,620 90,664 117,103 146,837 7,394 9,930 13,699 17,141
Mercosur 378,039 535,019 718,909 904,316 23,161 29,900 37,175 44,224
Argentina 12,076 16,851 22,794 31,577 452 539 664 833
Brazil 363,211 514,849 691,758 867,624 22,666 29,314 36,455 43,332
Paraguay 862 986 1,135 1,289 11 11 11 11
Uruguay 769 823 845 848 22 22 23 23
Venezuela 1,121 1,510 2,377 2,978 10 14 22 25
Andean Com. 184,153 240,775 291,427 343,842 7,541 9,093 10,816 12,865
Bolivia 6,263 9,982 13,643 18,459 250 313 465 611
Colombia 21,175 27,219 38,149 48,896 727 916 1,265 1,670
Ecuador 36,756 39,098 43,120 46,751 3,108 3,358 3,621 3,896
Peru 119,959 164,476 196,515 229,736 3,456 4,506 5,465 6,688
Accumulated Case Counts Accumulated Death Counts
1,000,000 50,000
24-May 31-May 07-Jun 14-Jun 24-May 31-May 07-Jun 14-Jun
40,000
750,000
30,000
500,000
20,000
250,000
10,000
0 0
Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia Chile Peru Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia Chile Peru
Note: Accumulated case counts up to selected dates. Note: Accumulated death counts up to selected dates.
New Daily Cases New Daily Deaths
30,000 1,250
Brazil Mexico Argentina Brazil Mexico Argentina
Colombia Chile Peru Colombia Chile Peru

24,000 1,000
18,000 750
12,000 500
6,000 250
0 0
0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98 105 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98
Note: Seven-day rolling average of new daily cases (vertical scale) by number of days Note: Seven-day rolling average of new daily deaths (vertical scale) by number of
(horizontal scale) since the first case was reported. days (horizontal scale) since the first death was reported.
Source: Johns Hopkins University.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 20

FOCUSECONOMICS
Economic Release Calendar

Calendar June 2020
Date Country Event

16 June Brazil April Retail Sales
Chile Central Bank Meeting
17 June Brazil Central Bank Meeting
18 June Brazil April Economic Activity
Peru April Economic Activity
19 June Mexico Q1 2020 National Accounts (by Type)
23 June Argentina Q1 2020 National Accounts
24 June Brazil May Balance of Payments
25 June Argentina May Merchandise Trade
Mexico Central Bank Meeting
Uruguay Central Bank Meeting
26 June Brazil June Consumer Confidence (E)
Colombia Central Bank Meeting
Mexico April Economic Activity
Mexico May Merchandise Trade
29 June Argentina April Economic Activity
30 June Brazil June Business Confidence (E)
Ecuador Q1 2020 National Accounts (E)
1 July Brazil June Manufacturing PMI
Chile June Business Confidence
Chile June Copper Prices
Chile May Consumer Confidence (E)
Colombia June Davivienda Manufacturing PMI
Mexico May Remittances
Mexico June IMEF Manufacturing PMI
Mexico June IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI
Peru June Consumer Prices (P)
2 July Brazil May Industrial Production
Peru May Merchandise Trade
Peru June Consumer Prices
Peru June Business Confidence
3 July Colombia May Merchandise Exports
Mexico June Consumer Confidence
Uruguay June Consumer Prices
4 July Colombia June Consumer Prices
6 July Ecuador June Consumer Prices (E)
7 July Argentina May Industrial Production
Colombia June Consumer Confidence
8 July Brazil May Retail Sales
Chile June Consumer Prices
9 July Mexico June Consumer Prices
Peru Central Bank Meeting
10 July Brazil June Consumer Prices
(P) Preliminary estimate. (E) Approximate date.

FOCUSECONOMICS Argentina June 2020
Argentina
Outlook deteriorates
Argentina
• Already languishing in recession at the moment of the outbreak, the health

crisis is piling yet further pressure on the economy in the first half of the
year. The contraction sharpened in Q1, according to data on economic
activity, while an unprecedented collapse in industrial production in April
and abysmal consumer confidence in April–May point to an even bleaker
Q2. The downturn is taking place against the background of an extension
to the lockdown in Buenos Aires; the continuous fall in international
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages reserves to sustain the peso; and prolonged debt renegotiations. On 22
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
May, the country failed to repay USD 503 million of debt interest, prompting
Population (million): 44.1 45.6 47.1 Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor’s to downgrade Argentina’s credit
GDP (USD bn): 582 415 496
rating to ‘Restricted Default’. However, creditors resumed talks after the
GDP per capita (USD): 13,209 9,112 10,523
GDP growth (%): -0.7 -2.3 2.6 default, and on 12 June the government announced an extension of the
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.6 -5.2 -3.7 deadline for creditors to 19 June.
Public Debt (% of GDP): 65.2 91.2 83.5
Inflation (%): 34.3 47.8 28.2
Current Account (% of GDP): -4.2 0.0 -0.7 • Argentina’s already ailing economy will contract sharply this year. The
External Debt (% of GDP) 40.1 68.0 63.5
pandemic is further hammering domestic and external demand, as well as
Massimo Bassetti worsening the country’s troubled fiscal position. The successful outcome
Economist of debt renegotiations will be crucial to avoid further financial turmoil and
gain access to external financing sources. LatinFocus Consensus sees
the economy contracting 8.8% in 2020, which is down 1.9 percentage
points from last month’s estimate, before rebounding 4.6% in 2021.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
14 6
• Inflation fell to 43.4% in May, from April’s 45.6%. May’s result marked
7 3
the lowest inflation rate since September 2018. Although notable output
gaps and low oil prices should put downside pressure on prices, a rapid
0 0
expansion of the monetary base and a weak peso will stoke inflation
-7 -3 ahead. The return to monetary financing of the fiscal deficit poses further
upside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project inflation to end 2020 at
-14 -6
2020 2021 45.4% and 2021 at 41.9%.
-21 -9
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021

• On 7 May, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) launched a special credit
2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months. line worth ARS 22 billion for micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises
(MSMEs) with no access to credit. Meanwhile, available figures show
the growth in money supply moderated in May following a record-high
in April. The BCRA is seen loosening its monetary policy stance ahead.
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts FocusEconomics analysts see the LELIQ rate ending 2020 at 38.01%
70
Argentina 50 and 2021 at 33.01%.
Latin America 2020 2021
56
40
• On 12 June, the ARS traded at 69.44 per USD, a 3.0% depreciation from
42
the same day in May. The FX is managed by the Central Bank to avoid
30
28
abrupt variations. The prolonged restructuring process coupled with dire
20
economic data exerted downside pressure on the currency. Meanwhile,
14
the parallel-market dollar was priced at a significantly higher rate of
0 10 around 121.00 ARS per USD. Analysts see the ARS ending 2020 and
2021 at 88.61 per USD and 116.92 per USD, respectively.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2020 and 2021
variation in %, Q1 2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity contacts at sharpest pace since May

2009 in March amid lockdown
Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in %
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de
4 4
Actividad Económica) plunged 11.5% year-on-year in March (February: -2.4%
yoy), marking the worst reading since May 2009.
0 0
% %
In terms of productive sectors, March’s dive was largely driven by freefalling
-4 -4 production in the fishing, construction and hotels and restaurants sectors.
Moreover, the manufacturing and transport and communications sectors also
-8 -8
recorded sharp contractions.
Month-on-month (left scale)
On a month-on-month basis, activity plummeted 9.8% in March, which was
-12 -12
Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 notably below February’s 1.3% fall. The reading marked the worst result on
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted EMAE (Estimador record. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation
Mensual de Actividad Económica) and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina (INDEC) and of coming in at minus 2.0% in March, down from February’s minus 1.7%.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast calculations.
FocusEconomics analysts see the economy in recession this year, contracting

8.8%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. In
2021, analysts see GDP finally rebounding, with growth coming in at 4.6%.
REAL SECTOR | Historic blow to industrial production in April amid

lockdown
Industrial production collapsed a record-low 33.5% year-on-year in April,
Industrial Production | variation in %
according to data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC) on 4
10
June. The reading follows March’s already sharp 16.5% year-on-year plunge.
0
April saw a broad-based contraction in all sub-components of the index. The

-10 steepest freefalls were recorded in the production of textiles, automotive and
%
other transport equipment and other equipment, apparatus and instruments.
-20
Meanwhile, the annual average variation in industrial output dropped from

-30
Year-on-Year March’s minus 4.9% to minus 6.9% in April.
Annual average
-40
Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect that
Note: Year-on-year changes of industrial production in % and annual average
growth rate in %. industrial production will contract 12.9% in 2020, which is down 4.4 percentage
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast calculations.
points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel expects industrial output
to rise 5.2%.
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence falls deeper into pessimistic terrain

in May amid containment measures
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index fell to
Consumer Confidence a one-year low of 38.4 in May from 39.3 in April amid containment measures.
55
Therefore, the index moved further below the 50-threshold that separates
optimism from pessimism among consumers, where it has been for over two
50
years.
45
May’s print reflected a significant deterioration in the consumers’ assessments
40 of their personal financial conditions compared to one year ago as well in their
expectations on their personal financial situation in one-year view. Moreover,
35
their outlook on both the short- and longer-term macroeconomic conditions
worsened. On the other hand, consumers’ willingness to purchase big-ticket
30
May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 items recovered some lost ground.
Note: Monthly consumer confidence index. Values above 50 indicate optimistic
consumer sentiment while values below 50 indicate pessimistic sentiment.
Source: Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT).
Panelists surveyed for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see private
consumption dropping 9.4% in 2020, which is down 1.4 percentage points

from last month’s forecast. For 2021, panelists expect private consumption to
increase 4.8%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to 20-month low in May amid

lockdown
Consumer prices rose 1.5% from the previous month in May, matching April’s
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
increase. May’s result marked the joint-softest rise in prices since November
8.0 60
Month-on-month (left scale) 2017. In terms of sub-components of the index, the rise came mainly on the
back of soaring prices for clothing and footwear as well as price increases for
6.0 50
housing and recreation and culture. Meanwhile, prices for education slipped.
% %
4.0 40 Inflation fell to 43.4% in May, from April’s 45.6%. May’s result marked the
lowest inflation rate since September 2018. Accordingly, the trend pointed
2.0 30 down, with annual average inflation coming in at 51.3% in May (April: 52.4%).
0.0 20
Inflation is expected to be 45.4% at the end of 2020, which is down 0.9
percentage points from last month’s forecast. Inflation is projected to fall to
Note: Annual and monthly var. of national consumer price index in %. 41.9% at the end of 2021.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Coronavirus blow to exports sharpens in April

Exports nosedived 18.9% in year-on-year terms in April, following March’s
marked 15.7% slump. The print was the result of plummeting exports of
manufactured products of industrial origin and of fuels and energy, which
more than counterbalanced a healthy increase in foreign sales of primary
products. In terms of export markets, April’s print mainly resulted from tumbling
overseas shipments to Brazil, the U.S. and Paraguay largely outweighing
soaring exports to China and India.
Merchandise Trade
18 36 Imports stumbled 30.1% annually in April, a more pronounced contraction
than March’s 19.7% fall. Diving imports of passenger motor vehicles, fuels
9 18
and lubricants and capital goods drove April’s downturn.
%
Consequently, the trade balance surplus in April widened from March’s USD
0 0
1.2 billion to 1.4 billion (April 2019: USD 1.2 billion surplus). Moreover, the
12-month rolling trade balance rose from March’s USD 17.3 billion surplus to a
-9 -18
17.5 billion surplus in April, marking the highest result in nearly 11 years (April
Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)
Exports (USD bn, right scale) 2019: USD 2.7 billion surplus).
Imports (USD bn, right scale)
-18 -36
Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect
Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the
12-month sum of exports and imports in %. merchandise exports to drop 13.6% in 2020 and merchandise imports to
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
decrease 20.0%, pushing the trade balance to a USD 17.0 billion surplus.
For 2021, the panel expects merchandise exports to increase 7.0% and
merchandise imports to rebound 16.9%, with a trade surplus of USD 14.3
billion.

Economic Indicators | 2015 - 2024
Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
Population (million) 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1 46.6 47.1 47.6
GDP per capita (USD) 15,110 12,778 14,727 12,123 9,679 8,595 9,062 9,816 10,528 11,223
GDP (USD bn) 652 557 649 540 436 391 417 457 496 534
GDP (ARS bn) 5,955 8,228 10,645 14,606 21,650 28,489 43,400 59,700 78,803 100,629
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 30.0 38.2 29.4 37.2 48.2 31.6 52.3 37.6 32.0 27.7
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.7 -2.1 2.7 -2.5 -2.2 -8.8 4.6 2.7 2.6 2.4
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 4.2 -1.6 6.0 -3.4 -8.7 -10.0 4.7 3.5 3.2 3.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.7 -0.8 4.0 -2.4 -6.4 -9.4 4.8 3.1 2.9 2.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.9 -0.5 2.7 -3.3 -1.5 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 3.5 -5.8 12.2 -5.7 -15.9 -22.1 8.8 4.8 4.3 3.8
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -2.8 5.3 1.7 -0.7 9.4 -9.2 5.9 4.1 3.8 3.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.7 5.8 15.4 -4.7 -18.7 -17.6 9.2 5.8 5.3 4.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 0.1 -4.5 2.5 -5.0 -6.4 -12.9 5.2 4.2 3.3 2.4
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.1 8.4 8.4 9.2 9.8 13.0 12.3 11.4 10.6 9.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.1 -5.8 -5.9 -5.0 -3.8 -7.1 -4.8 -4.2 -3.7 -3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP) 52.6 53.1 56.6 86.0 89.4 93.1 91.3 87.2 83.5 79.7
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 28.2 30.4 26.0 22.8 30.9 70.3 45.5 37.6 29.5 21.4
Monetary Base (ann. var. %) 34.9 31.7 21.8 40.7 34.5 74.2 41.4 36.6 28.4 20.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 26.9 41.0 24.8 47.6 53.8 45.4 41.9 33.7 27.1 20.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 26.7 41.2 27.7 34.3 53.5 46.0 44.0 35.4 28.4 21.3
7-Day LELIQ Rate (%, eop) 33.00 24.75 28.75 59.25 55.00 38.01 33.01 28.06 23.88 19.70
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 27.25 19.88 23.25 49.50 40.31 30.46 29.14 24.49 20.92 -
Stock Market (ann. var. of MERVAL %) 36.1 44.9 77.7 0.8 37.6 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 12.94 15.86 18.60 37.66 59.88 88.61 116.92 144.30 173.68 203.06
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 9.27 14.77 16.56 28.08 48.22 72.77 104.00 130.61 158.99 188.37
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -2.7 -4.8 -5.0 -0.8 0.8 0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -17.6 -15.1 -31.2 -27.3 -3.5 3.1 0.2 -1.3 -3.6 -6.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -3.4 2.1 -8.3 -3.7 16.0 17.0 14.3 12.8 11.2 9.4
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 56.8 57.9 58.6 61.8 65.1 56.3 60.2 64.4 68.8 73.5
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 60.2 55.9 66.9 65.5 49.1 39.3 45.9 51.6 57.6 64.1
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -17.0 2.0 1.3 5.3 5.4 -13.6 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -8.4 -7.2 19.8 -2.2 -25.0 -20.0 16.9 12.3 11.8 11.2
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 11.8 3.3 11.5 12.2 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 25.6 39.3 55.1 65.8 44.8 41.8 44.5 48.6 50.1 51.6
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.1 8.4 9.9 12.1 10.9 12.8 11.6 11.3 10.4 9.7
External Debt (USD bn) 167 181 235 278 278 279 287 295 310 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 25.7 32.6 36.1 51.4 63.7 71.3 68.9 64.5 62.5 -
Quarterly Data Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -1.8 -1.1 -5.3 -15.3 -8.7 -5.1 0.2 11.1 5.1 3.2
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 1.0 -1.0 -3.9 -10.6 6.3 2.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -8.3 -5.2 -7.1 -17.9 -12.0 -6.8 -0.6 9.7 6.1 7.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -4.7 -1.9 -6.0 -16.0 -8.5 -5.7 -1.3 10.9 5.1 5.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.4 -3.1 -0.4 3.8 2.4 3.2 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -10.1 -9.0 -16.4 -35.2 -25.7 -14.6 -2.3 25.6 15.4 9.9
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -4.4 -1.6 -5.9 -20.3 -14.1 -8.2 0.4 9.1 3.7 2.9
7-Day LELIQ Rate (%, eop) 78.37 55.00 38.00 38.00 39.18 38.01 35.98 34.39 33.35 33.01
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 58.88 40.31 27.56 26.86 28.82 30.46 29.51 29.43 29.27 29.14
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 50.34 59.29 61.46 68.05 76.58 84.99 93.08 100.67 107.83 114.40
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.1 2.8 -0.5 0.7 -0.3 0.6 -0.8 0.3 -0.7 0.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.0 3.0 -0.5 0.7 -0.3 0.6 -0.8 0.3 -0.8 0.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 3.9 6.5 3.3 4.6 4.4 5.0 3.4 4.6 3.8 4.2
Monthly Data Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20
Economic Activity (EMAE, ann. var. %) -3.6 -2.1 -0.9 -2.2 -0.3 -1.9 -2.4 -11.5 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -6.4 -5.0 -1.9 -4.3 1.4 -0.3 -0.9 -16.5 -33.5 -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 41.9 42.1 43.8 41.4 42.4 43.0 42.7 41.2 39.3 38.4
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 4.0 5.9 3.3 4.3 3.7 2.3 2.0 3.3 1.5 1.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 54.5 53.5 50.5 52.1 53.8 52.9 50.3 48.4 45.6 43.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.2 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 7.0 14.1 9.1 10.1 0.7 -0.6 -2.8 -15.7 -18.9 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -30.3 -14.9 -18.8 -21.9 -20.0 -16.1 -20.1 -19.7 -30.1 -

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17-Q4 21 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
12 14 Individual Forecasts 2020 2021

ABECEB -9.8 6.2
Analytica Consultora -9.5 -
7
6 Banco de Galicia -9.8 7.4
Banco Supervielle -10.9 10.3
0 Barclays Capital -11.1 5.1
0 BBVA Argentina -6.0 1.5
-7
C&T Asesores -9.9 4.6
Capital Economics -10.0 5.5
-6 Citigroup Global Mkts -8.5 5.5
Argentina -14 DekaBank -8.0 1.7
Argentina
Latin America Latin America DuckerFrontier -7.1 3.6
World World
-12 -21 Eco Go -9.5 5.3
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Ecolatina -9.0 4.4
Econométrica -8.5 -
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Econviews -10.0 7.5
EIU -9.0 6.1
5 12 Empiria Consultores -9.9 7.0
Maximum Euromonitor Int. -6.0 3.0
Consensus
Minimum
FIEL -12.5 4.5
0 8 Fitch Solutions -5.2 2.0
Fundación Capital -10.1 3.5
Goldman Sachs -8.5 3.6
-5 4 HSBC -7.0 3.0
Invecq Consulting -10.7 5.7
Itaú Unibanco -9.1 4.0
-10 0 JPMorgan -9.8 3.0
Maximum
Consensus Julius Baer -5.5 4.0
Minimum Kiel Institute -8.8 5.3
-15 -4 LCG -11.3 4.9
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Moody's Analytics -7.6 3.9
OJF & Asociados -8.5 7.0
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution Oxford Economics -8.6 6.7
Quantum Finanzas -8.8 2.0
60% S&P Global -7.0 2.6
Santander -8.1 4.2
Scotiabank -7.9 6.5
Seido -10.4 -
40% Société Générale -11.6 4.8
Torino Capital -5.8 1.3
UBS -4.7 2.7
Summary
20% Minimum -12.5 1.3
Maximum -4.7 10.3
Median -8.9 4.5
Consensus -8.8 4.6
0% History
<-16.0 -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 >-2.0
30 days ago -6.9 3.5
60 days ago -5.5 3.3
90 days ago -1.6 1.5
Additional Forecasts
OECD (June 2020) -10.1 1.7
World Bank (June 2020) -7.3 2.1
CEPAL (May 2020) -6.5 -
Notes and sources
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
(INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2020 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
20
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021
ABECEB -9.6 6.1 -28.9 16.1
10
Analytica Consultora -11.2 - - -
Banco de Galicia -13.8 - -29.4 -
Barclays Capital - - -15.4 5.2
0
BBVA Argentina -7.3 0.7 -18.1 6.6
C&T Asesores -10.1 4.5 -22.8 7.2
Capital Economics -14.4 5.1 -18.4 9.2
-10
Citigroup Global Mkts -9.1 5.8 -15.8 8.9
DuckerFrontier -7.8 2.6 - - Argentina
Eco Go -8.5 3.8 -25.0 12.0 Latin America

-20
Ecolatina -8.3 5.1 -30.9 13.7 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Econométrica -5.6 - -22.4 -
Econviews -9.0 7.8 -21.5 5.0
EIU -13.0 7.4 -22.2 24.7 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Empiria Consultores -10.0 8.0 -30.9 21.8
Euromonitor Int. -7.0 3.1 - - 8
FIEL -8.8 0.0 -30.0 12.5
Fitch Solutions -5.4 5.9 -15.1 5.0 4
Fundación Capital -10.4 4.0 -25.9 14.2
Goldman Sachs -7.6 4.4 -22.5 4.7
0
HSBC -10.8 3.0 -15.8 2.0
Invecq Consulting -10.0 7.0 -26.0 10.0
LCG -12.0 5.3 -28.7 5.0 -4
Moody's Analytics -7.3 4.0 -15.4 1.7
OJF & Asociados -9.6 10.4 -24.4 0.5
-8
Oxford Economics -11.3 7.6 -18.6 1.5 2020 2021
Quantum Finanzas -9.0 1.9 -18.0 3.3
S&P Global -8.0 3.5 - - -12
Seido -12.3 - -25.0 - Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Société Générale -9.4 4.9 -24.1 15.6

Torino Capital -9.3 4.3 -17.0 9.4
8 | Investment | variation in %
UBS -5.1 3.0 -11.6 4.5
Summary
40
Minimum -14.4 0.0 -30.9 0.5
Maximum -5.1 10.4 -11.6 24.7
Median -9.3 4.5 -22.4 7.2
20
Consensus -9.4 4.8 -22.1 8.8
History
30 days ago -8.0 3.6 -19.5 6.8
0
60 days ago -6.3 3.2 -17.7 5.8
90 days ago -1.8 2.1 -7.6 3.6
-20
Argentina
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts
10
-10
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
-20
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. -30
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts
10 | Industry | variation in % Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance
21
Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance
Argentina variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
Latin America Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
14 ABECEB -12.6 - 14.1 11.8 -8.1 -
Banco de Galicia -11.4 - 14.0 - -8.1 -
7 BBVA Argentina - - 16.3 15.4 - -
C&T Asesores - - 11.4 11.1 - -
Capital Economics - - 15.0 12.5 -9.5 -7.0
0
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 10.8 10.7 -7.5 -4.5
DekaBank - - 13.2 13.1 -6.1 -3.7
-7 DuckerFrontier -11.0 5.2 - - - -
Eco Go - - 11.5 13.5 -7.9 -2.0
Ecolatina - - 13.4 13.0 -7.0 -2.8
-14
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Econométrica - - - - -7.5 -
Econviews - - 13.5 12.6 - -
EIU -16.1 9.2 14.1 14.0 -6.1 -3.7
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts Empiria Consultores -14.0 9.0 14.2 12.6 -7.7 -7.3
Euromonitor Int. -7.2 2.5 10.3 10.2 - -
6 FIEL - - 13.5 14.0 -8.0 -
Fitch Solutions - - - - -6.7 -5.5
Fundación Capital -13.3 4.4 - - -7.2 -3.1
0 Goldman Sachs - - - - -7.5 -4.5
HSBC -11.8 3.6 - - - -
Invecq Consulting -12.0 5.5 14.5 13.0 -7.7 -5.4
-6 Itaú Unibanco - - 12.0 11.5 -6.1 -3.0
JPMorgan - - - - -7.0 -5.0
LCG -26.1 3.4 13.6 12.5 -5.0 -
-12 Moody's Analytics -9.1 2.2 14.8 14.4 - -
OJF & Asociados - - - - -6.7 -6.4
2020 2021
Oxford Economics -10.2 7.0 11.1 10.2 -6.9 -4.0
-18 Quantum Finanzas -12.4 5.4 14.3 11.2 -9.0 -3.5
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
S&P Global - - 12.7 11.0 - -
Scotiabank - - 11.4 10.2 - -
Société Générale - - 13.3 14.6 -4.9 -4.7
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Torino Capital - - 10.8 10.7 -5.5 -7.1
25
UBS - - 12.0 12.0 -7.3 -7.3
Argentina Summary
Latin America Minimum -26.1 2.2 10.3 10.2 -9.5 -7.3
Maximum -7.2 9.2 16.3 15.4 -4.9 -2.0
20
Median -12.0 5.2 13.4 12.5 -7.3 -4.5
Consensus -12.9 5.2 13.0 12.3 -7.1 -4.8
History
15
30 days ago -8.5 3.3 12.5 11.6 -6.7 -4.7
60 days ago -6.3 3.3 12.3 11.4 -5.6 -4.5
90 days ago -2.0 2.4 10.9 10.2 -3.6 -3.1
10
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
13 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela.
-5 All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos) and the
Ministry of Economy (MECON, Ministerio de Economía y Producción). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
Argentina 10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INDEC.
Latin America 11 Industrial production, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-10 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INDEC.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: MECON.

Monetary Sector | Inflation
Consumer Prices 14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2024 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices 60
(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop) Argentina
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 Latin America

45
ABECEB 38.8 38.7 42.8 42.9
Analytica Consultora 41.8 - 45.0 -
Banco de Galicia 50.0 - 45.7 - 30
Banco Supervielle 41.0 41.3 43.4 49.1
Barclays Capital 44.0 56.3 45.1 56.3
15
BBVA Argentina 47.0 50.0 47.4 52.9
C&T Asesores 40.1 40.1 42.4 46.3
Capital Economics - - 45.0 35.0 0
Citigroup Global Mkts 65.0 45.0 55.3 60.7
DekaBank - - 45.2 37.9 -15
DuckerFrontier - - 47.4 42.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Eco Go 53.4 39.6 49.5 46.5
Ecolatina 46.3 37.0 47.0 46.0
Econométrica 62.3 - 55.2 - 15 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in %
Econviews 50.0 45.0 47.5 53.8
70
EIU 39.3 32.2 45.2 37.9 Argentina
Empiria Consultores 50.6 42.1 48.9 52.9 Latin America
Euromonitor Int. - - 46.2 36.5 56
FIEL 37.2 60.8 42.3 52.7
Fitch Solutions 43.8 37.4 45.9 42.7
42
Fundación Capital 41.7 46.6 44.0 50.3
Goldman Sachs 45.4 38.5 46.5 48.1
HSBC 35.0 27.0 41.8 31.7 28
Invecq Consulting 54.6 45.0 50.0 50.0
Itaú Unibanco 40.0 50.0 42.9 48.8 14
JPMorgan 48.2 - 49.2 -
Julius Baer - - 44.5 34.5
Kiel Institute 50.0 40.0 - - 0
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
LCG 39.8 54.8 44.2 52.0
Moody's Analytics 43.5 43.0 47.5 44.4
OJF & Asociados 53.7 49.1 48.0 57.9
16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
Oxford Economics 40.5 30.1 45.2 34.9
Quantum Finanzas 37.3 29.5 45.0 36.0 80
Maximum
S&P Global 40.0 30.0 47.0 33.0
Consensus
Santander 43.0 47.0 - - Minimum
Scotiabank 45.7 46.8 - - 60
Seido 53.0 - 47.7 -
Société Générale - - 38.3 23.8
Torino Capital 39.3 41.5 41.3 32.7 40
UBS 41.6 31.4 46.1 37.5
Summary
Minimum 35.0 27.0 38.3 23.8 20
Maximum 65.0 60.8 55.3 60.7
Median 43.6 41.5 45.7 45.2
Consensus 45.4 41.9 46.0 44.0 0
History Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
30 days ago 46.3 39.3 47.3 41.5
60 days ago 42.9 36.4 46.4 38.0
90 days ago 40.2 31.9 46.9 35.1 17 | Inflation 2021 | evolution of fcst
80
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
60
Notes and sources
40
Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de
Estadísticas y Censos) and from the government of the autonomous city of Buenos Aires (Gobierno de la ciudad
autónoma de Buenos Aires). Inflation data from December 2017 and onward refers to national inflation and is
sourced from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC). Prior to December 2017, historical data refers to Buenos 20
Aires inflation.
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (eop).

15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (eop). 0
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 eop forecasts during the last 18 months. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
17 Inflation, evolution of 2021 eop forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate
18 | Interest Rate | 2005 - 2024 | in % 19 | Interest Rate | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Argentina
Argentina ABECEB 35.00 34.50
Latin America
Latin America Analytica Consultora 32.70 -
Banco de Galicia 44.00 -
40 60 Banco Supervielle 50.63 28.05
BBVA Argentina 35.00 37.23
C&T Asesores 38.00 31.99
Capital Economics 35.00 35.00
20 30 Citigroup Global Mkts 50.00 28.00
Eco Go 42.00 39.00
Ecolatina 35.00 26.00
Econviews 44.00 35.00
0 0 Empiria Consultores 41.57 34.08
2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 FIEL 45.00 60.00
Fitch Solutions 34.00 28.00
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst Fundación Capital 35.00 25.00
HSBC 25.00 19.00
80 80
Maximum Invecq Consulting 48.00 38.00
Consensus Itaú Unibanco 30.00 30.00
Minimum LCG 40.00 -
60 60
OJF & Asociados 36.00 -
Oxford Economics 30.00 22.26
Quantum Finanzas 36.00 33.00
40 40 Santander 41.00 39.00
Scotiabank 36.00 40.00
Seido 38.50 -
20 20 Société Générale 35.00 -
Maximum
Consensus Torino Capital 41.90 -
Minimum UBS 30.00 30.00
0 0 Summary
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Minimum 25.00 19.00
Maximum 50.63 60.00
22 | Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution Median 36.00 33.00
Consensus 38.01 33.01
50% History
30 days ago 35.39 31.51
60 days ago 33.30 28.74
40%
90 days ago 32.38 26.27
30%
20%
10%
0%
<18.0 23.0 28.0 33.0 38.0 43.0 48.0 53.0 >53.0
Notes and sources
aggregate excludes Venezuela. Long-term forecasts (2022-2024) for end-of period indicators
are based on both end-of-period and average-of-period projections. All monetary sector data
are from the The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA, Banco Central de la República
Argentina). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest Rate, 7-day LELIQ rate from 2005 to 2024 in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, 7-day LELIQ rate in % (eop).
20 Interest rate, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
22 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2020 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate
23 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
ABECEB 85.75 119.94
100 Analytica Consultora 90.60 -
180 Banco de Galicia 95.00 -
Banco Supervielle 90.42 121.23
75 Barclays Capital 82.00 110.00
120 BBVA Argentina 86.00 110.37
50 C&T Asesores 86.33 105.88
60 Citigroup Global Mkts 102.00 140.00
25
Eco Go 91.34 123.29
Ecolatina 95.22 121.10
0 0 Econométrica 89.84 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Econviews 100.00 141.00
EIU 83.87 94.38
25 | ARS per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | ARS per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst
Empiria Consultores 91.47 127.00
FIEL 86.22 122.02
140 150
Maximum Maximum Fundación Capital 87.00 127.00
Consensus
Consensus Goldman Sachs 82.00 102.00
Minimum Minimum
HSBC 100.00 140.00
105 110 Invecq Consulting 90.00 125.00
Itaú Unibanco 88.00 130.00
JPMorgan 88.32 -
LCG 88.27 -
70 70 Moody's Analytics 87.60 117.55
OJF & Asociados 91.58 125.58
Quantum Finanzas 81.50 101.50
35 30 S&P Global 85.00 95.00
Santander 87.00 131.00
27 | ARS per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution Seido 91.38 -
Torino Capital 91.84 123.76
80% UBS 84.00 100.00
Summary
Minimum 79.93 93.10
60% Maximum 102.00 141.00
Median 88.13 120.52
Consensus 88.61 116.92
40% History
30 days ago 86.56 112.16
60 days ago 85.14 106.39
20% 90 days ago 78.82 98.67
0%
<50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 >120.0
Notes and sources
are based on both end-of-period and average-of-period projections. All monetary sector data are
from Refinitiv. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
23 Exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
25 Exchange rate, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
27 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2020 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance
Current Account and Trade Balance 28 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance 12
% of GDP USD bn
Argentina
ABECEB 1.0 0.3 15.6 13.8
Analytica Consultora 3.2 - 15.0 - 6
Banco de Galicia 1.6 - 19.8 -
BBVA Argentina -0.3 -0.2 14.5 12.7
C&T Asesores -1.6 -1.2 16.0 17.3 0
Capital Economics -0.5 -1.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.5 -1.4 16.9 18.1
DekaBank -0.3 -2.2 - -
Eco Go 3.5 2.1 19.7 16.5 -6
Ecolatina 0.3 -0.4 18.2 17.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Econométrica 1.9 - 17.0 -
Econviews 0.5 0.8 12.4 15.6
EIU -0.3 -2.2 13.3 5.2 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Empiria Consultores 1.1 0.3 15.5 11.8
Euromonitor Int. 0.5 -0.1 15.7 14.0 1
FIEL 0.7 -0.1 16.5 12.0
2020 2021
Fitch Solutions 0.0 -1.0 15.5 8.2
Fundación Capital - - 18.0 15.6 0
Goldman Sachs 2.3 1.7 17.5 16.2
HSBC 2.2 1.9 - -
Invecq Consulting 1.2 0.5 16.9 13.7 -1
Itaú Unibanco 0.6 0.2 - -
JPMorgan 4.0 1.4 - -
LCG -0.6 - 20.5 - -2
Moody's Analytics 0.1 -1.0 - -
OJF & Asociados 2.9 1.9 - -
Oxford Economics 0.3 0.1 21.6 25.8 -3
Quantum Finanzas 0.4 -0.7 19.0 5.0 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Seido - - 18.1 -
Société Générale 1.5 1.9 - -
Torino Capital 0.5 -0.2 13.7 13.0 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
UBS -0.8 -1.0 15.0 15.0 100
Summary
Minimum -1.6 -2.2 12.4 5.0
75
Maximum 4.0 2.1 22.4 25.8
Median 0.5 -0.1 16.9 14.5
Consensus 0.8 0.1 17.0 14.3 50
History
30 days ago 0.4 -0.1 16.8 14.2
25
60 days ago 0.5 0.0 17.6 15.6
90 days ago 0.1 -0.3 17.9 15.8
0
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
-25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
31 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
20
16
12
Notes and sources
8
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
29 Current account balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 4
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD billions. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
31 Trade balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

External Sector | Exports and Imports
Exports and Imports 32 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports 40
USD bn USD bn
ABECEB 54.6 59.7 39.0 46.0 20
Analytica Consultora 59.1 - 44.1 -
Banco de Galicia 57.9 - 38.1 -
Barclays Capital 63.3 63.2 40.9 44.2 0
BBVA Argentina 54.1 58.7 39.6 46.0
C&T Asesores 52.7 57.7 36.8 40.4
Citigroup Global Mkts 60.2 64.3 43.3 46.3 -20
Eco Go 62.1 63.9 42.3 47.4
Argentina
Ecolatina 59.0 64.9 40.8 47.8
Latin America
Econométrica 59.0 - 42.0 - -40
Econviews 55.1 61.6 42.7 46.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 48.3 54.3 35.0 49.0
Empiria Consultores 54.4 61.5 38.9 49.7
Euromonitor Int. 58.6 62.7 42.9 48.7 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
FIEL 49.7 48.7 33.2 36.7
Fitch Solutions 56.0 58.8 40.5 50.6 80
Fundación Capital 57.2 60.6 39.1 45.0
Goldman Sachs 48.8 49.2 31.3 33.0 75
Invecq Consulting 57.5 59.2 40.6 45.5
LCG 59.8 - 39.3 -
Oxford Economics 57.8 70.4 36.2 44.6 70
Quantum Finanzas 53.0 63.0 34.0 58.0

Seido 54.7 - 36.6 - 65
Torino Capital 56.9 60.1 43.2 47.1
UBS 56.7 61.8 41.8 46.8
60
Summary
2020 2021
Minimum 48.3 48.7 31.3 33.0
Maximum 63.3 70.4 44.1 58.0 55
Median 56.9 61.1 39.6 46.1 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Consensus 56.3 60.2 39.3 45.9
History
34 | Imports | variation in %
30 days ago 58.2 61.6 41.3 47.4
60 days ago 60.3 63.5 42.7 47.9 100
90 days ago 66.1 68.2 48.2 52.4
50
-50
Argentina
Latin America
-100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
35 | Imports | evol. of forecasts
75
65
55
Notes and sources
45
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
2020 2021
32 Exports, annual variation in %.
33 Exports, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 35
34 Imports, annual variation in %. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
35 Imports, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

External Sector | Additional forecasts
International Reserves and External Debt 36 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt 18
USD bn USD bn
ABECEB 40.0 41.5 - -
Banco de Galicia 40.0 - - - 12
Barclays Capital 46.6 47.5 260 250
Citigroup Global Mkts 37.0 35.0 276 280
Eco Go 37.3 - - -
Ecolatina 41.2 45.2 - - 6
Econométrica 45.0 - - -
Econviews 43.0 50.0 - - Argentina
EIU 32.0 35.1 270 291 Latin America
Euromonitor Int. 44.0 44.5 - - 0
FIEL 42.0 43.0 323 370 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fitch Solutions 44.5 44.7 300 311
Goldman Sachs 46.4 58.5 240 225
Invecq Consulting - - 270 270 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
JPMorgan 46.7 51.8 275 301 90
LCG 40.0 41.5 - - 2020 2021
Moody's Analytics 41.4 44.6 - -
Oxford Economics - - 300 314
Quantum Finanzas 45.0 48.0 - - 70
Torino Capital 44.8 45.6 280 287
UBS 40.0 40.0 280 263
Summary
Minimum 32.0 35.0 240 225 50
Maximum 46.7 58.5 323 370
Median 41.7 44.6 276 287
Consensus 41.8 44.5 279 287
History 30
30 days ago 42.5 45.3 282 294 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
60 days ago 42.0 43.3 273 265
90 days ago 43.9 46.1 278 279
38 | External Debt | % of GDP
200
Argentina
Latin America
150
100
50
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
39 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts
350
310
Notes and sources

270
2020 2021
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
36 International reserves, months of imports.
37 International reserves, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 230
38 External debt as % of GDP. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
39 External debt, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Argentina in the Region

Official name: Argentine Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Buenos Aires (15.1 m)
Other cities: Córdoba (1.6 m)
Argentina
Rosario (1.4 m) 7.5% Argentina
8.5%
Area (km2): 2,780,400
Population (million, 2019 est.): 45.1 Other Other
19.1%
22.9%
Population density (per km2, 2019): 16.2
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.9
Chile
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.8 Brazil 5.5%
Peru
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 0.9 5.4% 34.9%
Colombia
Brazil
35.9%
Language: Spanish Colombia
6.3%
Measures: Metric system 8.4%
Time: GMT-3 Mexico

Mexico
20.9% 24.6%
Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 22.0 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 132 2010-12 2013-15 2016-18 2010-12 2013-15 2016-18
100 120
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 75.8
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 19.1 Agriculture Net Exports
80 90
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,157 Manufacturing Investment
60 60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,868
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 138
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 125 40 Other Industry 30
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 678
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 752 20 0 Private
Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 200 Consumption
0 -30
Transportation (2018)
Airports: 1,138
Railways (km): 36,917
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 281,290
Waterways (km): 11,000 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Buenos Aires, Bahía Blanca
U.S.A.
7.0% Other
Other 8.2% U.S.A.
Political Data

10.1%

13.5%
EU-27

MENA
President: Alberto Fernández 12.1%
12.5%

Brazil
Last elections: 27 October 2019 22.0%
Other EU-27
12.0%

Next elections: 2023
Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Miguel Ángel Pesce Brazil
Other Asia
ex-Japan
Germany
5.3%
13.6% 17.9%

Other Other Asia
LatAm ex-Japan
Other 12.3% 8.9%
China
LatAm 12.3% China
14.6%
17.9%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Agency Rating Outlook

Moody’s: Ca NEG
S&P Global Ratings: D N/A Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: RD N/A
Mineral
Other Other
Strengths Weaknesses 13.4% Fuels 8.7%
8.8%
• Well educated labor force • High fiscal deficit

• Rich in natural resources • Vulnerability to external shocks
Manufact.
• High inflation Exports Products Imports
25.3%
Food
61.3%

Manufact.
Products
82.5%
.

FOCUSECONOMICS Brazil June 2020
Brazil
Brazil
• The economy contracted in the first quarter at the sharpest pace since
Q2 2015, chiefly driven by a sharp fall in household spending amid
social distancing measures, with the second quarter likely to be worse.
Industrial output dived at a record pace in April, while the manufacturing
PMI remained mired deep in contractionary territory through May as
shutdowns and logistical restrictions continued to depress the sector.
Despite numbers of deaths and new virus cases surging, restrictions are
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages starting to be lifted to reboot activity: At the beginning of June, businesses
and shopping malls were allowed to open in Sao Paolo and Rio de
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
Population (million): 207 211 215 Janeiro. Meanwhile, the authorities also announced a new credit line of
GDP (USD bn): 1,916 1,561 1,749 up to BRL 20 billion (USD 4.0 billion) for small- and medium-sized firms,
which is to set to be operational by end-June.
GDP growth (%): -0.2 -0.7 2.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -7.9 -9.2 -6.3
Public Debt (% of GDP): 73.4 86.8 93.3 • The economy is expected to shrink this year as containment measures
Inflation (%): 5.3 3.2 3.5
hammer household and capital spending, while weak global demand
Current Account (% of GDP): -1.4 -2.2 -2.0
External Debt (% of GDP): 16.8 21.3 20.2 depresses exports. Although fiscal and liquidity-boosting measures should
cushion the blow, the duration of the crisis and political tensions pose
Hanna Andersson
further downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy
Economist
will contract 6.3% in 2020, which is down 1.5 percentage points from last
month’s estimate, before growing 3.4% in 2021.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts • Inflation dropped to 1.9% in May, from April’s 2.4%, marking an over two-
14
4 decade low and moving further below the Central Bank’s target of 4.0%
for the end of 2020. Despite upside pressures from currency weakness
7
and accommodative monetary policy, inflation should ease this year due
0
to muted oil prices and crippled domestic activity. Our panel sees inflation
0
ending 2020 at 1.9% and 2021 at 3.2%.
-4
-7
• The Central Bank cut the SELIC rate to 3.00% from 3.75% at its 5–6
2020 2021
-14 -8
May meeting to shore up the economy against the coronavirus crisis. A
majority of panelists expect further policy loosening this year, while the
2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months. Bank signaled that further deteriorating economic conditions could prompt
another rate cut at its 16–17 June meeting. Focus Economics Consensus
panelists project the SELIC rate to end 2020 at 2.20% and 2021 at 3.48%.
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts • The real recovered some of its losses since the beginning of the year over
9
4.6 the past month amid improved sentiment in the global financial markets
and a rebound in demand for riskier assets. On 12 June it traded at BRL
6
5.05 per USD, marking a 16.5% month-on-month appreciation. Despite
3.6
this upturn, the real is projected to weaken somewhat going forward. Our
panel sees the real ending 2020 at 5.32 per USD and 2021 at 4.93 per
3 2.6
USD.
Brazil
2020 2021
Latin America
0 1.6

REAL SECTOR | GDP contracts at fastest pace in nearly five years in Q1

The economy shrank in the first quarter of 2020 as the shock from the Covid-19
pandemic and associated social distancing measures constrained activity.
Seasonally-adjusted GDP fell 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, contrasting the

revised 0.4% expansion in Q4 2019 (previously reported: +0.5% quarter-
on-quarter). The result was in line with market expectations and marked the
steepest contraction since Q2 2015. Moreover, on an annual basis GDP fell
0.3% in Q1, contrasting Q4’s 1.7% rise.
The first quarter’s downturn was largely driven by a marked contraction in

household consumption, which fell 2.0% quarter-on-quarter and contrasted
Q4’s increase of 0.4%, amid rising unemployment and a sharp fall in retail
sales in the final month of the quarter. Moreover, public expenditure growth
slowed to 0.2% in Q1 from 0.4% in Q4 2019, as public finances continued to
be tight. On the other hand, fixed investment swung to a 3.1% expansion in
Q1 from a 2.7% contraction in Q4 2019.
Gross Domestic Product | variation in %

In the external sector, exports of goods and services fell 0.9% in Q1, contrasting
the 2.3% increase in the final quarter of 2019, as the pandemic hammered
12 14
Quarter-on-quarter s.a. (left scale) demand from key trading partner China. Conversely, imports rebounded in
Q1, expanding 2.8% and contrasting the 3.3% contraction logged in Q4 2019.
6 7
%
% Looking ahead, GDP is expected to contract this year as the Covid-19
0 0 pandemic deals a heavy blow to the economy. Containment measures are
seen crippling private consumption and investment, while feeble global
-6 -7 demand will depress exports. Although fiscal and monetary stimulus should
provide a cushion, the extent of the shock and rising political tensions pose
-12 -14 further downside risks.
Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021

year variation %.
Commenting on the outlook, Alberto Ramos, Economist at Goldman Sachs,
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and LatinFocus noted:
Consensus Forecast.
“Despite having no ex-ante fiscal space, the fiscal response to the pandemic
is likely to ultimately exceed 5% GDP, as some of the already-announced
measures are likely to be broadened and extended. Overall, we anticipate a
sizeable fiscal expansion, but still short of what would be required to offset
the expected decline in private disposable income. Furthermore, we expect
economic, policy and political uncertainty to remain high, which is likely to
compound the economic and social burden of the pandemic and undermine
the recovery.”
The LatinFocus panel of analysts sees the economy contracting 6.3% in 2020,
which is down 1.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the
panel projects the economy will rebound and grow 3.4%.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial production dives at record pace in April

Industrial output plunged 18.8% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted
terms in April, a sharper fall than March’s 9.0% drop. Although April’s result
marked the steepest contraction since the current series began in 2002, it
beat market expectations of a 29.2% decrease.
The reading was chiefly driven by a sharp decline in the production of durable
goods as well as of capital goods, and largely reflected the impact of the
social-distancing measures imposed to contain the spread of Covid-19.

Industrial Production | variation in % On an annual basis, industrial output dove 27.2% in April, which was notably
20 4
below March’s 3.8% fall and marked the worst result on record. Accordingly,
Month-on-month s.a. (left scale) the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of industrial
Annual average (right scale)
production coming in at minus 3.0% in April, down from March’s minus 1.0%.
10 2
Looking ahead, the industrial sector is expected to continue to languish under

0 0
the severe economic conditions created by the pandemic and measures to
% %
control the domestic outbreak.
-10 -2
The analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics for this month’s LatinFocus

-20 -4 Consensus Forecast see industrial production falling 9.6% in 2020, which is
down 3.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2021, industrial
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted industrial production and output is projected to grow 5.4%.
annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and
FocusEconomics calculations.
REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI rises from record low in May
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS
Markit, rose to 38.3 in May from 36.0 in April, which had marked the lowest
reading since the survey began in February 2006. Nevertheless, the PMI
Purchasing Managers’ Index remained entrenched below the 50-threshold for the third month straight,
signaling a severe deterioration in business conditions in the manufacturing
60
sector.
50
The coronavirus pandemic and its associated containment measures
continued to hammer the Brazilian manufacturing sector in May, as production
and new orders contracted, albeit a more modest rate compared to the
40 previous month. Consequently, in a bid to control costs, firms cut purchasing
activity at the quickest rate on record and increased job shedding.
30 On the supply-side, Covid-19 induced shutdowns and logistical restrictions

led to the second-greatest supplier delivery delays in the survey’s history.
Note: Markit Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading
above 50 indicates an overall increase compared to the previous month, while a
value below 50 indicates an overall decrease.
Source: IHS Markit.
Meanwhile, business sentiment in the manufacturing sector improved in May
as firms expressed some optimism for a potential recover once the pandemic
has been brought under control.
On the price front, input cost inflation accelerated chiefly due to a stronger
U.S. dollar, which forced manufacturers to raise output charges markedly
despite collapsed demand and increasing competition.
OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment ticks up in May, but remains in negative

territory
Consumer Confidence Index The seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by the Getulio
120
Vargas Foundation (FGV) rose to 62.1 points in May from the historic low of
58.2 points in April. Despite this uptick, the index remained entrenched below
100
the 100-point threshold separating consumer pessimism from optimism.
May’s improvement chiefly reflected household’s less pessimistic view of

80
future conditions. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of the current economic
conditions worsened slightly compared to the previous month.
60
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see private

40
Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 consumption falling 6.6% in 2020, which is down 1.6 percentage points from
last month’s forecast. In 2021, participants project private consumption to
Note: Index of consumer sentiment (seasonally adjusted). The 100-point
threshold represents the point above which consumers expect economic
rebound and record a 3.7% expansion.
conditions to improve.
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation.

OUTLOOK | Business confidence improves in May, yet remains in

pessimistic territory
Business Confidence Index The Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV, Fundaçao Getúlio Vargas) industrial
120 business confidence rose to 61.4 in May from April’s record low of 58.2. Thus,
business sentiment in Brazil’s industrial sector improved somewhat over
100
the previous month, yet it remained well below the 100-point threshold that
separates optimism from pessimism among business.
80 May’s uptick largely reflected firms’ less pessimistic assessment of the future
economic situation. Moreover, their view of the current economic conditions
60 also turned slightly less negative.
Despite this month’s improvement in confidence, the outlook remains

40 uncertain as surging numbers of Covid-19 cases and political tensions are
Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20
likely to weigh on business sentiment in the near-term.
Note: Index of business sentiment (seasonally adjusted). The 100-point threshold
represents the point above which businesses expect economic conditions to Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see fixed
improve.
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation. investment plunging 12.5% in 2020, which is down 2 percentage points from
last month’s forecast. In 2021, participants project fixed investment to rebound
and record a 6.4% expansion.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation declines to lowest level since January

1999 in May
Inflation | Consumer Price Index Consumer prices dropped a seasonally-adjusted 0.38% in May over the
previous month, a sharper drop then the 0.31% fall seen in April. May’s
1.5 5.5
result marked the sharpest fall in prices since August 1998. Looking at the
details of the release, housing prices fell at a quicker pace in May compared
1.0 4.5
to the previous month, and prices pressures for food and beverages eased
markedly. Meanwhile, prices for transportation, and health and personal care
0.5 3.5 both fell at moderate paces compared to April.
% %
0.0 2.5 Inflation eased to 1.9% in May, below April’s 2.4%. May’s reading marked the
Month-on-month (left scale) lowest inflation rate since January 1999. As such, annual average inflation fell
-0.5 1.5
to 3.2% in May from 3.5% in April.
Note: Annual and monthly var. of IPCA consumer price index in %. FocusEconomics participants see inflation closing 2020 at 1.9%, which is
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel
projects inflation to end the year at 3.2%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Real gains back ground amid improved market

sentiment
Exchange Rate | BRL per USD The Brazilian real recovered some ground against the U.S. dollar in recent
weeks, largely reflecting a turnaround in investor sentiment and higher risk
6.0
appetite. On 12 June the real traded at BRL 5.05 per USD, which marked
5.4
a 16.5% appreciation over the previous month. Despite this upturn, the real
remained down 23.5% year-on-on year and 20.4% year-to-date.
4.8
After falling to a record low in May amid Covid-19-induced market turmoil,

4.2
the currency has strengthened in the past month as countries across the
globe have started to lift lockdowns and reopen their economies, improving
3.6
market sentiment. Sizable global fiscal and monetary stimulus packages to
3.0
curb the impact of the coronavirus and rebounding stock markets, including
in Brazil, have increased demand for the real among other riskier assets. The
Note: Daily spot of real (BRL) against U.S. dollar (USD). Central Bank of Brazil further supported the real when it said there is ample
Source: Refinitiv.
room to sell foreign exchange reserves and thus stands ready to ramp up its
intervention in the currency market should it be necessary.

Looking ahead, the real is currently forecast to weaken slightly from current
levels. The duration of the coronavirus health crisis and elevated public
expenditure to mitigate its impact will pressure the already weak fiscal
accounts, weighing on the currency. Meanwhile, continued political noise
could exert further downward pressure. A sustained positive external scenario
poses an upside risk, however.
Our panel sees the real ending 2020 at 5.32 per USD and 2021 at 4.93 per
USD.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Current account logs largest surplus on record

in April
Brazil’s current account balance registered a surplus for the second month
straight in April, swinging to a USD 3.8 billion surplus from a USD 1.9 billion
Current Account Balance | USD billion
deficit in April 2019. This marked the highest surplus since the current series
began in January 1995 and followed March’s surplus of USD 0.4 billion
4 -20
Monthly current account (left scale) (previously reported: USD 0.9 billion).
12-month current account balance (right scale)
0 -30
April’s reading largely reflected a lower primary income deficit as well as a
narrower shortfall in the services account. Furthermore, the trade surplus
-4 -40
increased in the month. The merchandise trade surplus rose to USD 6.7
billion from USD 5.7 billion in the same month last year on a softer contraction
-8 -50
in exports than that of imports. Meanwhile, net foreign direct investment
weakened notably in April, totaling USD 0.2 billion (April 2019: USD 5.1 billion).
-12 -60
Accordingly, the 12-month sum of the current account balance narrowed to a

Note: Monthly and 12-month current account balance in USD billion.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and FocusEconomics calculations.
USD 44.4 billion shortfall, which equates to approximately 2.6% of GDP, from
the USD 50.1 billion deficit registered in the 12 months ending in March (2.9%
of GDP).
The panel sees a current account deficit of 1.7% of GDP in 2020. For 2021,
the panel projects the deficit at 2.1% of GDP.


Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
Population (million) 203 205 207 208 210 211 213 214 215 216
GDP (USD bn) 1,796 1,800 2,063 1,885 1,839 1,371 1,473 1,622 1,749 1,876
GDP (BRL bn) 5,996 6,269 6,583 6,889 7,257 7,056 7,586 7,942 8,488 9,070
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 3.8 4.6 5.0 4.6 5.3 -2.8 7.5 4.7 6.9 6.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -3.5 -3.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 -6.3 3.4 2.9 2.6 2.3
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -6.3 -4.8 1.5 1.9 1.7 -6.5 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -3.2 -3.8 2.0 2.1 1.8 -6.6 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -1.4 0.2 -0.7 0.4 -0.4 2.5 -0.6 0.1 0.7 1.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -13.9 -12.1 -2.6 3.9 2.2 -12.5 6.4 5.0 4.3 3.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.8 0.9 4.9 4.0 -2.5 -7.3 6.2 4.8 4.1 3.4
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -14.2 -10.3 6.7 8.3 1.1 -12.0 8.4 6.4 4.8 3.3
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -8.3 -6.6 2.9 0.8 -1.1 -9.6 5.4 4.6 3.8 3.0
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) -4.2 -6.6 2.5 2.3 1.8 -7.6 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.1
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 14.25 13.75 7.00 6.50 4.50 2.20 3.48 4.50 5.21 5.92
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 16.49 11.42 10.21 9.24 6.81 7.01 6.84 7.31 7.76 8.20
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 3.96 3.25 3.31 3.88 4.02 5.32 4.93 4.86 4.85 4.83
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 3.34 3.48 3.19 3.65 3.95 5.15 5.15 4.90 4.85 4.84
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.0 -1.3 -0.7 -2.2 -2.7 -1.7 -2.1 -2.1 -2.0 -2.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -54.5 -24.2 -15.0 -41.5 -49.5 -23.2 -30.6 -33.3 -35.3 -37.3
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 191 185 218 239 225 200 217 234 247 256
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 171 138 151 181 177 152 169 187 203 217
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -15.1 -3.0 17.5 9.9 -5.8 -11.4 8.9 7.5 5.6 3.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -25.2 -19.8 9.6 20.2 -2.1 -14.4 11.5 10.1 8.6 7.2
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 64.7 74.3 68.9 78.2 78.6 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 356 365 374 375 357 337 336 339 341 342
External Debt (USD bn) 335 326 317 321 323 329 330 342 352 362
External Debt (% of GDP) 18.6 18.1 15.4 17.0 17.6 24.0 22.4 21.1 20.1 19.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.2 1.7 -0.3 -12.2 -7.1 -4.4 -1.8 9.4 4.3 2.7
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.5 0.4 -1.5 -11.3 6.4 2.5 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.6
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.2 2.4 0.7 -13.9 -8.2 -5.8 -2.2 14.2 7.3 4.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.9 2.1 -0.7 -12.8 -7.3 -4.5 -1.7 8.5 5.0 2.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -1.4 0.3 0.0 2.5 4.0 3.0 1.2 -1.8 -1.9 -1.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.9 -0.4 4.3 -22.6 -14.4 -9.0 -7.6 17.0 8.0 9.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -2.0 -0.6 -2.6 -17.0 -12.5 -7.0 -4.5 10.8 8.8 5.0
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.3 3.2 0.8 -14.2 -9.3 -6.0 -5.2 10.4 3.8 -0.5
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 5.50 4.50 3.75 2.30 2.23 2.20 2.30 2.49 2.85 3.48
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 3.97 4.12 4.46 5.34 5.43 5.35 5.29 5.22 5.11 4.99
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, ann. var. %) -1.0 2.0 2.2 1.0 1.3 0.1 0.6 -1.5 - -
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, mom var. %) 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.4 -5.9 - -
Industrial Production (mom s.a. var. %) 1.2 0.3 1.0 -1.6 -1.0 1.3 0.6 -9.0 -18.8 -
Markit Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 52.5 53.4 52.2 52.9 50.2 51.0 52.3 48.4 36.0 38.3
Retail Sales (mom s.a. var. %) 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.3 -0.3 -1.4 0.5 -2.5 - -
Consumer Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.) 90.6 89.9 89.6 89.6 91.6 90.4 87.8 80.2 58.2 62.1
Business Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.) 95.9 95.9 95.4 96.9 99.4 100.9 101.4 97.5 58.2 61.4
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.11 -0.04 0.10 0.51 1.15 0.21 0.25 0.07 -0.31 -0.38
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.7 -2.7 -6.5 -2.0 -5.3 -11.8 -4.4 0.4 3.8 -


4E Consultoria -6.1 4.8
Banco BV -4.0 3.0
7
Banco Fator -6.7 -3.3
4
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. -7.4 3.4
Barclays Capital -5.7 3.5
BNP Paribas -7.0 4.0
0 0
Citigroup Global Mkts -6.5 4.0
Commerzbank -6.4 2.3
-4 -7 Credit Suisse -6.5 4.6
Brazil Brazil
DekaBank -6.6 3.2
Latin America Latin America
World World DuckerFrontier -7.5 3.2
-8 -14 EIU -7.5 4.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Euromonitor Int. -5.0 3.0
Fitch Ratings -6.0 3.2
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Fitch Solutions -6.5 2.0
4 8
Haitong -5.5 3.4
HSBC -7.3 4.5
ING -4.6 3.2
0 Itaú Unibanco -4.5 3.5
4 JPMorgan -7.0 4.4
Julius Baer -4.5 3.0
-4 KBC -9.0 5.0
Kiel Institute -6.3 4.6
0 LCA Consultores -5.6 3.2
-8 Moody's Analytics -7.0 3.5
Maximum Maximum Oxford Economics -7.5 5.6
Consensus Consensus
Parallaxis Economia -6.0 2.0
Minimum Minimum
-12 -4
Petros -5.0 5.3
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Pezco Economics -4.2 3.0
S&P Global -4.6 3.3
Santander -6.4 4.4
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution
Scotiabank -4.3 2.0
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -7.3 3.4
Torino Capital -6.9 3.9
UBS -7.5 3.0
50% Summary
Minimum -9.0 -3.3
Maximum -4.0 5.6
Median -6.5 3.4
25% Consensus -6.3 3.4
History
30 days ago -4.8 3.3
60 days ago -3.2 3.1
0% 90 days ago 1.9 2.4
<-15.0 -12.5 -10.0 -7.5 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 >2.5 Additional Forecasts
OECD (June 2020) -9.1 2.4
CEPAL (May 2020) -5.2 -
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography
and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, real annual variation in %.


8
4E Consultoria -7.6 4.5 -11.5 7.7
Banco BV -5.4 4.0 -7.7 4.1 4
Banco Fator -8.9 -2.6 -14.8 -12.6
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. -7.4 3.4 -20.0 15.0
Barclays Capital -5.5 4.0 -12.5 6.0 0
Credit Suisse -5.7 4.6 -17.7 10.3 -4
DuckerFrontier -8.0 4.0 - - Brazil
EIU -8.0 4.0 -13.0 9.0 Latin America
Euromonitor Int. -4.4 3.2 - -
-8
Fitch Ratings -7.3 3.5 -9.4 1.6 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fitch Solutions -7.6 2.6 -6.4 3.0
Goldman Sachs -3.6 1.2 -4.0 2.3
Haitong -5.5 - -8.0 -
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
HSBC -8.8 6.5 -10.9 6.0
ING -4.0 3.5 -15.0 10.0 6
LCA Consultores -6.3 3.8 -9.7 6.3
Oxford Economics -10.3 6.2 -10.0 11.6 3
Parallaxis Economia -5.0 2.0 -15.0 2.7
Pezco Economics -4.0 3.2 -9.1 6.0
0
S&P Global -5.3 4.1 - -
Santander -4.0 4.7 -14.5 15.3
Société Générale -8.1 3.6 -9.9 7.4 -3
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -6.4 3.3 -12.7 6.1
Torino Capital -5.0 3.3 -6.3 5.6
UBS -9.9 6.1 -38.7 10.4 -6
Summary 2020 2021
Minimum -10.3 -2.6 -38.7 -12.6
Maximum -3.6 6.5 -4.0 15.3 -9
Median -6.4 3.8 -11.5 6.2
Consensus -6.6 3.7 -12.5 6.4
History
30 days ago -5.0 3.7 -10.5 6.0
60 days ago -3.2 3.1 -7.0 4.7
20
90 days ago 2.5 2.7 3.7 5.2
10
-10
Brazil
Latin America
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources

-8
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro
2020 2021
de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.


15
Brazil variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
10 4E Consultoria -15.7 9.9 14.3 15.9 -10.4 -3.8
Banco BV -5.0 - 14.5 14.5 -13.2 -5.2
Banco Fator -11.0 -7.6 13.7 16.8 -18.5 -13.1
5
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. - - 12.5 11.5 - -
Barclays Capital -8.6 4.5 14.0 13.4 -15.7 -7.6
0 Capital Economics - - - - -13.5 -7.3
Credit Suisse - - 15.8 13.7 -14.5 -6.5
-5 DekaBank - - - - -12.0 -7.2
DuckerFrontier -10.0 6.8 - - - -
EIU -7.0 6.5 - - -16.3 -6.8
-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Euromonitor Int. -4.5 2.5 - - - -
Fitch Solutions - - 12.3 12.9 -11.1 -10.0
Goldman Sachs - - 13.9 14.6 -17.5 -8.7
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts Haitong -6.0 3.5 12.9 11.8 -12.6 -6.0
HSBC - - 14.0 12.7 -10.5 -6.2
10 ING -6.0 5.0 12.8 11.9 -15.0 -6.6
Itaú Unibanco - - 14.6 13.9 -14.9 -5.6
JPMorgan - - - - -16.2 -6.5
LCA Consultores -11.1 6.7 15.2 13.3 -13.8 -7.6
5
Moody's Analytics -10.2 5.4 14.2 12.9 -10.7 -12.7
Parallaxis Economia -15.0 9.2 14.3 13.5 - -
0 Petros - - - - -14.4 -4.0
Pezco Economics -5.4 2.4 13.4 13.6 -15.8 -6.4
S&P Global - - 13.3 13.0 - -
-5 Santander -16.3 9.7 14.5 13.1 -16.3 -8.0
Scotiabank - - 12.5 13.5 - -
2020 2021 Société Générale - - 14.9 15.7 -15.4 -7.8
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -12.0 - 14.5 15.8 -14.2 -5.7
-10
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Torino Capital - - - - -11.8 -6.9
UBS -6.0 6.0 13.2 10.9 -19.5 -9.7
Summary
Minimum -16.3 -7.6 12.3 10.9 -19.5 -13.1
Maximum -4.5 11.0 15.8 16.8 -10.4 -3.8
17
Median -10.0 6.0 14.0 13.4 -14.7 -6.8
Consensus -9.6 5.4 13.9 13.5 -14.4 -7.3
History
30 days ago -6.5 4.9 13.7 12.9 -11.7 -6.8
60 days ago -4.2 4.0 13.4 12.6 -10.3 -6.3
13 90 days ago 1.9 2.8 11.2 10.4 -5.4 -4.8
Brazil
Latin America
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-5
Notes and sources
-10 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de
Geografia e Estatistica) and the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). See below for details. Forecasts based on
Brazil LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
Latin America 10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: IBGE.
-15 11 Industrial production, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: IBGE.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCB.


Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
15
(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop) Brazil
4E Consultoria 2.0 3.8 2.6 3.5
Banco BV - - 2.1 3.3
Banco Fator 1.1 2.5 - - 10
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 1.7 3.5 2.6 3.0
BNP Paribas - - 2.5 3.0
Capital Economics - - 2.8 3.0 5
Commerzbank - - 2.2 2.8
Credit Suisse 1.7 3.1 2.4 3.1
DekaBank - - 3.7 3.6
0
DuckerFrontier - - 2.9 3.7 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 1.5 3.1 2.5 2.6
Euromonitor Int. - - 3.6 3.8
Fitch Ratings 2.0 3.3 - -
15 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in %
Goldman Sachs 2.0 3.5 2.6 3.5 10
Haitong 1.8 3.5 2.7 3.2 Brazil
HSBC 3.0 3.5 - - Latin America
ING 1.3 1.7 - - 8
JPMorgan 1.9 3.2 - -
6
KBC - - 2.9 3.8
Kiel Institute - - 3.1 3.0 4
LCA Consultores 1.2 2.8 2.4 2.5
Moody's Analytics - - 2.9 2.6
Oxford Economics 1.9 2.8 2.8 2.2 2
Parallaxis Economia 1.7 2.9 2.6 2.9
Petros 1.3 2.9 - -
0
Pezco Economics 2.2 3.0 - -
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
S&P Global 3.0 4.3 3.3 3.8
Santander 1.4 2.9 - -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 1.5 3.0 - -
Torino Capital 1.9 3.7 2.6 3.5
7
UBS 2.0 3.7 3.1 2.8
Summary
Minimum 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.2
Maximum 3.0 4.3 3.7 3.8
Median 1.9 3.2 2.6 3.1 5
Consensus 1.9 3.2 2.8 3.2
History
30 days ago 2.3 3.5 3.0 3.3
60 days ago 2.9 3.6 3.4 3.6
3
90 days ago 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.8
Additional Forecasts Maximum
IMF (Apr. 2020) 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.3 Consensus
OECD (June 2020) - - 3.0 2.6 Minimum
1
8
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
6
4
Notes and sources
2
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Brazilian Institute of Geography
and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts are based on
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 0
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.


Brazil 4E Consultoria 2.50 4.75
Latin America Banco BV 2.25 2.25
Banco Fator 1.75 1.75
20 10 Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 2.25 4.00
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.25 2.50
Credit Suisse 2.25 4.25
DekaBank 2.50 -
10 5
Fitch Ratings 2.25 3.50
Brazil Goldman Sachs 2.25 3.50
Latin America Haitong 2.25 4.50
0 0 HSBC 2.50 3.50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
ING 2.25 3.00
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst JPMorgan 1.75 -
10 10 KBC 2.50 -
LCA Consultores 1.50 2.75
Moody's Analytics 2.50 4.00
8 8 Oxford Economics 1.50 3.00
Parallaxis Economia 2.25 3.00
6 6
Petros 2.25 2.25
Pezco Economics 2.25 3.00
Santander 2.25 3.00
4 4 Scotiabank 1.75 5.75
Société Générale 2.25 -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 2.25 3.00
2 Maximum 2 Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Minimum Minimum UBS 2.50 4.50
0 0
Summary
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Minimum 1.50 1.75
Maximum 2.50 5.75
Median 2.25 3.00
22 | Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution Consensus 2.20 3.48
History
60%
30 days ago 2.47 3.62
60 days ago 3.11 4.23
90 days ago 3.93 5.41
40%
20%
0%
<0.65 1.10 1.55 2.00 2.45 2.90 3.35 3.80 >3.80
Notes and sources
aggregate excludes Venezuela. Long-term forecasts (2022-2024) for end-of-period indicators
are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD Exchange Rate | BRL per USD

4E Consultoria 4.80 4.50
Banco BV 6.00 5.00
5
Banco Fator 5.80 6.10
5 Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 4.50 4.30
3
Credit Suisse 5.50 5.50
4
DekaBank 5.50 -
2 EIU 5.10 4.82
1 3 Goldman Sachs 5.75 4.50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
Haitong 4.80 4.40
HSBC 6.20 6.20
25 | BRL per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | BRL per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst ING 4.50 4.50
7 7 Itaú Unibanco 5.75 4.50
Maximum Maximum JPMorgan 5.25 -
Consensus Consensus Julius Baer 5.50 5.01
Minimum Minimum
6 KBC 5.60 -
6
LCA Consultores 5.20 4.50
5
5
Parallaxis Economia 5.21 5.08
4 Petros 4.75 4.50
4 S&P Global 4.90 4.75
3
Santander 5.80 5.50
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Tendências Consultoria Integrada 5.35 5.25
UBS 4.95 4.60
27 | BRL per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution Summary
Minimum 4.50 4.26
50%
Maximum 6.20 6.20
Median 5.35 4.82
40% Consensus 5.32 4.93
History
30%
30 days ago 5.12 4.74
60 days ago 4.79 4.51
90 days ago 4.27 4.19
20%
10%
0%
<3.65 4.15 4.65 5.15 5.65 6.15 6.65 7.15 >7.65
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn
4E Consultoria -0.4 -2.4 53.5 55.5
0
Banco BV -2.3 -2.5 47.6 44.7
Banco Fator -1.9 -1.0 42.3 52.0
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. -2.4 -2.7 45.0 45.0
Barclays Capital -1.1 -1.6 45.1 50.6 -2
Credit Suisse -1.1 -0.4 50.6 70.1 -4
DekaBank -2.3 -2.3 - -
Brazil
EIU -2.5 -2.8 36.0 32.4
Latin America
Euromonitor Int. -2.0 -2.3 47.9 49.9 -6
Fitch Solutions -2.3 -2.7 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Goldman Sachs -0.5 -0.8 50.5 49.3
Haitong -0.6 -1.5 50.0 45.0
HSBC -3.9 -3.6 - -
29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
ING -1.7 -1.4 47.0 52.0
Itaú Unibanco -0.1 0.3 60.0 75.4 -1.0
JPMorgan -0.5 -2.1 44.0 39.0
LCA Consultores -3.1 -2.6 43.6 49.5
Moody's Analytics -4.0 -3.4 - - -1.5
Oxford Economics -0.6 -2.4 36.4 29.2
Parallaxis Economia -2.0 -3.5 40.0 25.0
-2.0
Pezco Economics -1.0 -1.5 50.7 50.5
Santander -1.6 -1.5 34.9 34.6
Société Générale -1.6 -1.7 - - -2.5
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -1.4 -2.6 49.0 47.4
Torino Capital -2.9 -3.1 36.9 38.3
UBS -1.5 -2.0 80.0 60.1 -3.0
Summary 2020 2021
Minimum -4.0 -3.6 34.9 25.0
Maximum -0.1 0.3 80.0 75.4 -3.5
Median -1.6 -2.3 47.3 49.4
Consensus -1.7 -2.1 47.9 48.0
History
30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
30 days ago -2.3 -2.4 44.4 45.4
60 days ago -2.8 -2.8 38.2 36.6 400
90 days ago -2.9 -2.9 35.4 33.2 Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
300
200
100
-100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
50
45
Notes and sources 40
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil) and the Ministry
35
of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
2020 2021
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BCB.
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: MDIC. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr


Exports Imports 50
USD bn USD bn Brazil
4E Consultoria 200 219 146 163
Banco BV 209 217 161 172
25
Banco Fator 200 222 158 170
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 180 200 135 155
Barclays Capital 219 229 174 178
Citigroup Global Mkts 203 212 141 151
Credit Suisse 204 239 154 169 0
EIU 201 214 165 181
Euromonitor Int. 198 213 150 163
Goldman Sachs 211 222 161 173
Haitong 210 230 160 185 -25
ING 217 226 170 174 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Itaú Unibanco 200 225 140 150
JPMorgan 201 205 157 166
LCA Consultores 174 228 130 178
33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Oxford Economics 172 185 136 155
Parallaxis Economia 180 225 140 200 290
Pezco Economics 217 227 166 177
Santander 175 190 140 156
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 212 229 163 181 270
Torino Capital 210 222 173 184
UBS 200 204 120 144
Summary 250
Minimum 172 185 120 144
Maximum 219 239 174 200
230
Median 201 222 155 171
Consensus 200 217 152 169
History 210
30 days ago 201 218 157 173 2020 2021
60 days ago 203 216 165 180
90 days ago 227 238 191 205 190
60
40
20
-20
Brazil
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
240
220
200
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, 160
Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
2020 2021


USD bn USD bn Brazil
Latin America
4E Consultoria 332 335 - -
30
Banco BV 350 350 - -
Banco Fator 343 343 - -
Barclays Capital 351 377 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 330 330 320 318 20
Credit Suisse 340 330 - -
EIU 306 321 - -
Fitch Solutions 359 365 - - 10
Goldman Sachs 333 335 - -
Haitong 350 360 - -
HSBC 350 340 - -
0
ING 342 332 - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
JPMorgan 342 - - -
LCA Consultores 343 335 326 335
Oxford Economics 324 325 - -
37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Parallaxis Economia 320 330 - -
Pezco Economics 357 351 - - 410
Santander 329 321 - -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 352 350 - -
Torino Capital 305 289 339 338
390
UBS 310 310 - -
Summary
Minimum 305 289 320 318
Maximum 359 377 339 338 370
Median 342 335 326 335
Consensus 337 336 329 330
History 350
30 days ago 341 343 329 331
60 days ago 340 344 325 337 2020 2021
90 days ago 355 353 328 331
330
50
Brazil
Latin America
40
30
20
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
425
2020 2021
400
375
Notes and sources
350
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

Fact Sheet
General Data Brazil in the Region

Official name: Federative Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Brazil
Capital: Brasilia (4.5m)
Other cities: Sao Paulo (21.7m)
Rio de Janeiro (13.3m)
Area (km2): 8,515,770 Other
Other
Population (million, 2019 est.): 210 22.9%
Brazil
18.6%
Population density (per km2, 2019): 24.7 34.9% Brazil

36.2%
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.7 Chile
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 74.7 Peru
5.5%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018 est.): 6.8 5.4% Colombia

6.4%
Language: Portuguese Argentina
7.5%
Measures: Metric system Argentina
8.6%
Time: GMT-2 to GMT-4 Colombia
8.4% Mexico
20.9% Mexico
24.8%
Economic Structure
100 120
80 90
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 11,221 60
Manufacturing
60
Investment

Government
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 3,363

Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 3,029 20 0 Private
Services
0 -30
Airports: 4,093
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 2,000,000
Chief Ports: Santos, Belem, Rio de Janeiro
U.S.A.
Other Other
Political Data
MENA 8.7%
15.0%
17.2% U.S.A.
6.7% 18.9%

President: Jair Bolsonaro

Argentina

Last elections: 28 October 2018 5.0% Argentina
6.0%

Next elections: 2022 EU-27
Central Bank President: Roberto Oliveira Campos Neto

Other
LatAm Exports 15.9%
Other Imports Other EU-27
LatAm 12.9%
10.8%
8.8%

Other Asia Germany

ex-Japan 6.3%
10.3% China
China 17.9% Other Asia
27.7% ex-Japan
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 12.1%

Moody’s: Ba2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BB- Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB- Negative
Other Food Other

5.9% 6.5% 4.6%
Strengths Weaknesses Mineral
Fuels
Food 13.5%
• Commitment to economic • Pronounced socio-economic 35.8%

orthodoxy inequalities Manufact.
• Large domestic market and • Inadequate infrastructure Exports Products Imports

37.9%
diversified production creates bottleneck for economic
• Stable financial system growth
Mineral Manufact.
• Strong foreign direct investment • Privatization and deregulation Fuels Ores & Products
9.2%
flows bolster capital account lagging Metals
11.2%
75.3%

FOCUSECONOMICS Chile June 2020
Chile
Chile
• The economy marginally rebounded in the first quarter, after contracting

in Q4 2019 due to country-wide protests. A recovery in exports was
largely behind the upturn, while domestic demand dropped for a second
consecutive quarter owing to social distancing measures and the Covid-19
fallout. Turning to the second quarter, GDP is set to contract as the full
brunt of the containment measures take grip. Economic activity contracted
at the fastest pace on record in April, while merchandise exports plunged
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages in April–May on the collapse in global demand for raw materials. Amid a
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24 deteriorating outlook, the government is currently working with Parliament
Population (million): 18.4 19.4 20.0 to approve another fiscal stimulus package of USD 10.0 billion to be spent
GDP (USD bn): 276 264 313
over the next 20 months. Meanwhile, on 29 May, the IMF approved a
GDP growth (%): 2.3 0.2 3.4 two-year USD 23.9 billion credit line to the Central Bank to insulate the
economy against financial shocks.
Inflation (%): 2.8 2.6 2.9
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.6 -2.3 -2.3 • Economic activity is set to shrink this year, ravaged by Covid-19. The
External Debt (% of GDP): 64.2 78.5 73.7
restrictions adopted by the government will take a heavy toll on domestic
Nicolas J. Aguilar activity, while a stifled global economy is expected to result in lower
Economist demand for Chilean exports. The uncertainties surrounding the upcoming
constitutional process may also further restrain investment ahead.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP falling 4.4% in 2020, which is down
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts 1.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and then rebounding by
14 5.0
4.1% in 2021.
7 2.5
• Inflation eased to 2.8% in May, from 3.4% in April and moving below the
Central Bank’s 3.0% target. Moreover, core inflation fell to a one-year low,
0 0.0
indicating that depressed economic activity is weighing heavily on price
pressures. Going forward, inflation is expected to remain largely subdued
-7 -2.5
amid downbeat domestic demand. Our panel forecasts inflation to end
2020 2021
2020 at 2.6%, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s
-14 -5.0
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr estimate, and 2021 at 2.8%.
2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months.
• At its 6 May meeting, the Central Bank left the monetary policy rate
unchanged at 0.50%. Meanwhile, the unconventional liquidity measures
deployed in March have so far helped commercial lenders meet the
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
jump in demand for credit, at relatively low interest rates. Our panelists
9 3.3 largely expect the rate to remain unchanged for the rest of the year.
FocusEconomics Consensus forecast panelists project the rate to end
3.1 2020 at 0.49% and 2021 at 1.01%.
6
2.9 • The peso gained ground against the U.S. dollar in the past month,
3 bolstered by rising copper prices and the approved IMF credit line. On 12
2.7
June, the CLP traded at 792 per USD, a 4.1% appreciation from the same
Chile
Latin America
2020 2021
day last month. Going forward, most analysts see the peso weakening
2.5
0
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr as uncertainties regarding the constitutional process linger. Our panelists
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2020 and 2021 project the peso to end 2020 at 803 CLP per USD and 2021 at 768 CLP
per USD.

REAL SECTOR | The economy grows marginally in Q1 2020

Gross Domestic Product | variation in % Economic activity bounced back in the first quarter, with GDP expanding 0.4%
12 on an annual basis (Q4 2019: -2.1% year-on-year).
Household spending fell 2.2% year-on-year in Q1 2020, improving from the

6
3.8% downturn seen in Q4 2019. Similarly, government spending declined at a
%
milder pace of 1.0% in Q1 (Q4 2019: -7.4% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment
0 growth slowed to 0.4% in Q1 from 2.7% in the prior quarter.
Exports of goods and services grew 1.4% in Q1 (Q4 2019: -3.5% yoy). In
-6
addition, imports of goods and services contracted at a steeper rate of 8.9%
in Q1 (Q4 2019: -7.5% yoy), marking the worst outcome in over five years.
-12
Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q2 2021
On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 3.0% in Q1 from Q4 2019’s 4.1%
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCC) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
contraction. Q1’s reading marked the strongest increase since Q2 2010.
FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 4.4% in 2020, down

1.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, they expect the
economy to grow 4.1%.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity plunges at the fastest rate on record

in April
Economic Activity | variation in % In April, the IMACEC economic activity index sank 14.1% on an annual basis
8
(March: -3.1% year-on-year), marking the largest drop on record as the
measures to curtail the spread of Covid-19 ravaged the economy.
0 April’s fall reflected a 15.5% contraction in the non-mining economy (March:

-4.0% yoy), largely driven by the collapse in retail activity and, to a lesser
%
extent, in construction and manufacturing. Meanwhile, the mining economy
-8 dipped 0.1%, contrasting March’s 0.8% expansion.
Year-on-year Annual average
In month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity plummeted

-16
Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 8.7% in April (March: -5.7% month-on-month seasonally-adjusted).
Note: Year-on-year and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh). OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment plummets to new all-time low in May
on Covid-19 fallout
The Adimark GfK consumer confidence index fell to 21.2 points in May, from
21.6 points in April, marking a new low in the survey’s history. Thus, the index
fell deeper below the critical 50-point threshold that separates pessimism from
optimism among Chilean consumers.
Consumer Confidence
60
May’s dismal print saw four out of the five subcomponents of the index
falling deeper into negative territory, as consumers quarrel with the Covid-19
pandemic and the social distancing measures taken to curtail its spread.
50
Consumers’ perception of their own personal situation and their willingness
to purchase big-ticket household items both dipped. Similarly, their perception
40
regarding the country’s current situation and one-year economic outlook fell
from a month earlier. On the upside, their five-year economic outlook improved
30
slightly.
20
May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project private
Note: Consumer confidence index (IPEC, Indice de percepcion de la economia). consumption to fall 5.6% in 2020, which is down 1.6 percentage points from
Values above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in consumer sentiment while
values below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment.
last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees private consumption growing
Source: Adimark GfK. 4.3%.

OUTLOOK | Business sentiment picks up in May but remains largely

pessimistic
Business Confidence The business confidence index (IMCE), published by ICARE and the Adolfo
60 Ibáñez University, rose to 34.3 points in May from 31.7 points in April, which
had marked an all-time low. Nevertheless, the index remained well below the
crucial 50-point threshold that separates pessimism from optimism among
50 Chilean businesses.
In May, sentiment improved in all four sub-components of the index: Commerce,

40
construction, industry and mining. That said, only the mining sector reported
optimism, as the remaining sectors remained deeply entrenched in pessimistic
terrain.
30
Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report project fixed investment
Note: Business Confidence Index (IMCE, Indicador Mensual de Confianza
Empresarial). Values above 50 indicate optimistic perception, below 50 indicate to decline 10.3% in 2020, which is down 2.3 percentage points from last
negative perception.
Source: Universidad Adolfo Ibañez / ICARE. month’s forecast. For 2021, they project it to grow 5.9%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation plunges to six-month low in May

Consumer prices dropped a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% from the previous
month in May, after coming in flat in April. Looking at the details of the release,
Inflation | Consumer Price Index prices for transport declined at a softer rate. Meanwhile, food and non-
1.0 4
alcoholic beverages prices came in flat in May as did prices for housing.
Inflation dropped to 2.8% in May, down from April’s 3.4%. May’s figure
0.5 3
represented the lowest inflation rate since November 2019. Meanwhile, the
%
% trend pointed up mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 2.9% in May
(April: 2.8%). Core inflation fell to 2.1% from April’s 2.3%.
0.0 2
Month-on-month (left scale) In its March assessment, the Central Bank projected inflation to end 2020 at
-0.5 1
3.0% and 2021 at 2.9%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see
inflation ending 2020 at 2.6%, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. month’s forecast, and at 2.8% in 2021.
Source: Chile National Statistical Institute (INE).
Turning to monetary policy, the panel projects the monetary policy rate to end
2020 at 0.49% and 2021 at 1.01%.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Copper prices gain ground in May

Copper Price | USD per Mt. Average copper prices rose in May on the back of upbeat demand from China,
7,500 as the economy gets back on track. On average, prices for the red metal
logged USD 5,241 per ton (equivalent to USD 2.38 per pound), up from April’s
USD 5,052 per ton (equivalent to USD 2.29 per pound). That said, prices
6,500
were 12.3% lower than in the same month of 2019.
After four consecutive months of average copper prices falling, the red metal
5,500
recouped some ground in May supported by recovering Chinese industrial
activity and prospects of sustained demand ahead amid further monetary and
4,500 fiscal stimulus from Beijing. In addition, the partial reopening of the U.S. and
European economies also stoked investors’ appetite for copper, as demand for
Note: Cash seller and settlement price. the red metal is often linked to global economic sentiment. Lastly, a somewhat
Source: London Metal Exchange (LME).
cheaper U.S. dollar in May supported prices as well.
Although dislocated supply chains and mine shutdowns are weighing on

copper output, demand for the metal is trailing behind supply this year as
the global economy reels from the Covid-19 fallout. As a result, the recovery
in copper prices is likely to lose steam in the coming months. Meanwhile, in
Chile, revenues at state-owned Codelco plummeted a stunning 85.5% in the

first quarter as a result of the collapse in demand. Moreover, the Chilean miner
woes seem to be deepening in the second quarter as containment measures
curtail output.
Reflecting on the outlook for copper, Wenyu Yao, Senior Commodities

Strategist at ING, noted:
“We doubt risk appetite will return to copper and the broader industrial metals
group in the near term. What could complicate matters for copper is an
asymmetric growth trajectory in the global economy. Historically, moves in
copper prices have been in line with manufacturing PMIs. During the 2008
financial crisis, copper bottomed along with PMIs from major economies.
However, there is no guide for copper. More recent April [Chinese] data has
suggested that manufacturing is still struggling to keep its head above water.
Elsewhere, the indicator is pointing to a deep contraction.”
Our panelists project copper prices to average USD 5,437 per metric ton in
2020 and USD 5,826 per metric ton in 2021.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 246 251 278 298 282 243 267 291 313 335
GDP (CLP bn) 159,553 169,537 179,756 191,266 198,441 197,084 210,357 221,785 236,133 251,069
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.3 1.7 1.2 3.9 1.1 -4.4 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.5 1.8 2.9 4.7 1.0 -6.8 5.2 4.4 3.8 3.1
Total Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.6 3.5 3.6 3.8 0.8 -3.5 4.3 3.4 3.0 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 2.7 3.4 3.7 1.1 -5.6 4.3 3.6 3.3 3.0
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.8 7.2 4.6 4.3 -0.3 5.2 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.7 0.5 -1.5 5.0 -2.3 -4.8 5.1 4.3 3.8 3.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.1 0.9 4.6 7.9 -2.3 -12.4 9.6 7.0 5.1 3.3
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) 0.7 0.0 -1.1 2.8 0.8 -2.4 2.1 - - -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.4 1.6 -5.0 4.3 4.1 3.5 -
Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop) 3.50 3.50 2.50 2.75 1.75 0.49 1.01 1.81 2.54 3.28
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 709 670 615 694 752 803 768 757 752 747
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, aop) 655 676 649 642 703 813 787 762 755 749
External Sector
Copper LME (USD/mt, aop) 5,509 4,871 6,172 6,527 6,008 5,437 5,826 5,987 6,159 6,331
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.4 -2.1 0.4 -11.9 -6.7 -0.1 -1.3 10.3 5.1 3.0
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.8 -4.1 3.0 -11.3 5.8 3.4 1.5 0.2 1.3 1.3
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.7 -3.3 -2.6 -14.0 -8.8 -1.5 -1.2 10.4 8.1 6.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.9 -3.8 -2.2 -13.3 -8.2 -1.5 -0.9 9.1 6.6 5.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.7 -7.4 -1.0 2.1 3.2 7.2 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.1 2.7 0.4 -17.2 -14.7 -10.1 -3.5 12.6 11.2 7.3
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) 2.5 0.5 2.5 -5.6 -0.7 -1.3 - - - -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 4.9 -4.7 -3.8 -10.8 -5.7 0.2 -1.7 11.3 4.5 3.9
Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop) 2.00 1.75 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.56 0.69 0.92 1.01
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -5.2 -3.6 -1.5 0.5 -1.3 -2.6 -2.2 -0.9 -3.5 -2.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -3.5 -2.4 -1.0 0.3 -0.8 -1.6 -1.4 -0.6 -2.3 -2.0
Economic Activity (IMACEC, ann. var. %) 3.8 3.3 -3.4 -4.0 0.8 1.3 3.3 -3.1 -14.1 -
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) -1.1 2.8 -5.7 3.1 4.4 3.7 3.3 0.6 -5.9 -
Unemployment (% of active population) 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.8 7.4 7.8 8.2 9.0 -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 39.4 38.6 36.7 28.3 29.4 30.4 32.7 27.8 21.6 21.2
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 51.0 50.7 51.5 36.6 32.5 40.7 43.9 40.7 31.7 34.3
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1
Copper Price (USD per mt, aop) 5,705 5,759 5,757 5,860 6,087 6,036 5,688 5,183 5,052 5,241
Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17-Q4 21 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

AGPV -3.2 3.9
Banchile Inversiones -3.1 3.7
4 7 BCI -4.8 3.5
BICE Inversiones -4.4 4.1
BTG Pactual -6.0 5.0
0 0 Capital Economics -5.0 6.0
CorpResearch -5.5 3.6
-4 -7 Credicorp Capital -4.9 3.0
Chile
Chile DekaBank -4.1 4.0
Latin America DuckerFrontier -5.1 3.9
Latin America
World
-8
World
-14 EIU -4.8 4.1
Fitch Solutions -3.2 1.3
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Fynsa -2.7 5.0
Gemines -7.6 6.1
8 8 Goldman Sachs -4.4 3.3
Maximum HSBC -2.5 3.0
Consensus
Inversiones Security -4.0 5.0
Minimum
4 6 Itaú Unibanco -4.5 4.7
JPMorgan -5.2 4.4
0 4 Kiel Institute -2.5 5.4
Le Fort Economía y Finanzas -4.9 3.9
Moody's Analytics -6.3 3.0
-4 Maximum 2
Consensus
Oxford Economics -4.5 4.8
Minimum Pezco Economics -4.0 3.2
S&P Global -3.9 4.6
-8 0 Scotiabank -4.5 2.9
Société Générale -4.4 3.8
UBS -4.5 4.3
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution Summary
Minimum -7.6 1.3
75%
Maximum -2.5 6.1
Median -4.4 4.0
Consensus -4.4 4.1
50% History
30 days ago -3.2 4.0
60 days ago -2.5 3.5
90 days ago 1.3 2.4
25% Additional Forecasts
CEPAL (May 2020) -4.0 -
IMF (May 2020) -4.5 5.3
CAF (June 2020) -2.2 3.6
0%
<-10.0 -8.5 -7.0 -5.5 -4.0 -2.5 -1.0 0.5 >0.5
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco
Central de Chile) and the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística).


14
Banchile Inversiones - - -12.7 3.4
BCI -4.6 2.1 -13.0 2.5
7
BICE Inversiones -6.7 5.6 -11.2 3.1
BTG Pactual -8.5 5.0 -17.8 13.1
0
CorpResearch -6.0 4.4 -8.0 3.3
DuckerFrontier -6.8 2.8 - -
Chile
EIU -3.5 1.5 -11.1 7.2
Euromonitor Int. -6.3 4.1 - - Latin America
-7
Fitch Solutions -2.0 1.0 -6.0 4.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fynsa -3.2 4.5 -7.9 4.8
Gemines -7.4 7.5 -21.9 16.5
Goldman Sachs -3.8 5.3 -10.3 5.4 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
HSBC -8.1 7.2 -12.5 5.5
6
Inversiones Security -4.3 4.8 -8.9 5.0
Le Fort Economía y Finanzas -6.5 4.9 -8.1 0.8
Moody's Analytics -8.1 -0.4 -10.1 4.9
3
Oxford Economics -8.0 5.5 -6.6 3.7
Pezco Economics - - -5.7 3.1
S&P Global -7.1 5.3 - -
0
Scotiabank -4.0 5.9 -7.5 10.5
UBS -5.0 3.8 -9.6 5.0
-3
Summary
Minimum -8.5 -0.4 -21.9 0.8 2020 2021
Maximum -2.0 7.5 -5.7 16.5
-6
Median -6.0 4.7 -9.6 4.9 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Consensus -5.6 4.3 -10.3 5.9
History
30 days ago -4.0 4.2 -8.0 4.0 8 | Investment | variation in %
60 days ago -3.4 3.7 -7.5 3.1
90 days ago 0.8 2.5 -2.9 1.9 30
Chile
Latin America
15
-15
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources

-7
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-14
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.

10 | Unemployment | % of active pop. Unemployment, Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
12
Unemployment Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of active pop. % of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
10
Banchile Inversiones - - -8.0 -3.2 32.7 36.5
BCI - - -9.3 -3.6 32.7 37.7
BICE Inversiones 8.9 8.9 - - - -
8
BTG Pactual 11.0 9.4 -10.1 -6.0 36.2 40.9
Capital Economics 9.5 8.5 -7.5 -6.5 35.0 37.0
Citigroup Global Mkts 8.4 7.6 -7.9 -3.4 38.7 33.4
6
CorpResearch - - -9.4 -5.0 - -
DekaBank - - -10.5 -5.4 - -
Chile
EIU 10.4 9.9 -11.0 -5.6 37.0 37.8
Latin America
4
Euromonitor Int. 8.8 8.8 - - - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Fitch Solutions 12.0 8.7 -6.6 -6.1 - -
Gemines 9.9 8.9 -8.0 -5.1 34.3 37.4
Goldman Sachs - - -9.0 -4.1 37.7 40.2
11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP HSBC - - -8.2 -3.3 34.9 36.8
10
Inversiones Security 15.2 11.3 -9.4 -6.5 36.7 40.0
Itaú Unibanco 9.0 8.3 -8.1 -4.0 - -
JPMorgan - - -9.5 -5.0 - -
5
Le Fort Economía y Finanzas 9.5 10.3 -8.4 -6.6 - -
Moody's Analytics 11.3 11.4 -9.8 -5.5 36.6 42.7
Oxford Economics 8.7 7.4 -6.1 -5.0 32.7 32.7
0
Pezco Economics - - -8.9 -6.7 37.4 37.3
S&P Global 9.5 8.0 - - - -
Scotiabank 10.7 9.8 - - - -
Société Générale 9.6 8.7 -6.0 -5.3 34.9 37.9
-5
UBS 10.0 8.3 -8.4 -5.3 35.1 35.8
Chile
Summary
Latin America
Minimum 8.4 7.4 -11.0 -6.7 32.7 32.7
-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Maximum 15.2 11.4 -6.0 -3.2 38.7 42.7
Median 9.6 8.8 -8.4 -5.3 35.1 37.4
Consensus 10.1 9.1 -8.6 -5.1 35.5 37.6
12 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts History
30 days ago 9.2 8.5 -7.9 -5.2 34.6 36.5
0 60 days ago 9.2 8.5 -7.9 -5.6 34.9 37.0
90 days ago 8.3 7.8 -4.3 -3.7 31.1 33.2
-3
-6
2020 2021
-9
13 | Public Debt | % of GDP
45
30
Notes and sources

15
All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas) and DIPRES (Dirección
de Presupuestos). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.
0
11 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: DIPRES.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
13 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: DIPRES.


(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop)
AGPV 3.1 2.8 - -
Banchile Inversiones 2.8 3.0 - - 5
BCI 2.2 2.6 - -
BTG Pactual 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.0
Capital Economics - - 3.0 2.3
0
CorpResearch 2.5 2.9 - -
Credicorp Capital - - 2.1 2.4 Chile
DekaBank - - 3.4 3.1 Latin America
DuckerFrontier - - 3.2 3.4
-5
EIU 3.1 2.9 3.2 3.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fynsa 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.8 15 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in %
Gemines 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.5
9
Goldman Sachs 2.2 2.5 2.9 2.2
HSBC 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.8
Inversiones Security 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8
6
JPMorgan 2.2 2.6 2.9 -
Kiel Institute - - 3.3 2.6
Le Fort Economía y Finanzas 2.2 4.5 2.8 3.2
3
Pezco Economics 2.0 2.5 - - Chile
S&P Global 3.0 3.6 3.2 3.5 Latin America
0
Scotiabank 2.8 3.0 - - Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
UBS 2.1 3.0 3.0 2.4
Summary 16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
Minimum 1.9 0.3 2.1 0.9
Maximum 3.2 4.5 3.5 3.5 5
Median 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.7 Maximum
Consensus 2.6 2.8 3.1 2.6 Consensus
Minimum
History 4
30 days ago 3.0 2.9 3.3 2.9
60 days ago 3.1 2.8 3.5 2.8
90 days ago 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.9 3
OECD (June 2020) - - 3.6 3.1
IMF (May 2020) 2.5 3.0 3.4 2.9 2
CAF (June 2020) 2.2 3.0 - -
1
Notes and sources

2
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Maximum
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus 1 Consensus
Forecast.
Minimum
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 0
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

Chile
Chile AGPV 0.50 0.50
Banchile Inversiones 0.50 1.00
12 12 BCI 0.50 0.50
BICE Inversiones 0.50 0.50
BTG Pactual 0.50 0.50
8 8 Capital Economics 0.25 0.25
CorpResearch 0.50 1.00
4 4 Credicorp Capital 0.50 0.50
Fynsa 0.50 1.00
0 0 Gemines 0.50 1.50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Goldman Sachs 0.50 2.50
HSBC 0.50 2.00
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst Inversiones Security 0.50 0.50
5 5 Itaú Unibanco 0.50 1.00
JPMorgan 0.50 -
Le Fort Economía y Finanzas 0.50 0.50
4 4 Pezco Economics 0.50 1.50
S&P Global 0.50 1.50
3 3 Scotiabank 0.50 1.50
UBS 0.50 1.25
2 2 Summary
Minimum 0.25 0.25
1 Maximum 1 Maximum Maximum 0.50 2.50
Consensus Consensus Median 0.50 1.00
Minimum
Minimum Consensus 0.49 1.01
0 0 History
30 days ago 0.49 1.15
60 days ago 0.49 1.20
22 | Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution
90 days ago 1.36 1.82
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
<-0.5 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 >1.3
Notes and sources
are from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD Exchange Rate | CLP per USD
AGPV 830 790
Banchile Inversiones 800 780
800
BCI 800 780
800 BICE Inversiones 760 740
700 BTG Pactual 780 770
Capital Economics 800 750
Citigroup Global Mkts 815 803
600
700 Credicorp Capital 810 770
EIU 808 747
500 Fitch Solutions 795 770
Fynsa 830 750
Gemines 750 770
400 600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Goldman Sachs 780 700
HSBC 830 830
25 | CLP per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | CLP per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst Inversiones Security 800 750
Itaú Unibanco 800 770
950 950
Maximum Maximum JPMorgan 790 -
Consensus Consensus Le Fort Economía y Finanzas 807 787
Minimum Minimum Moody's Analytics 824 754
850 850
Oxford Economics 776 769
Pezco Economics 852 790
S&P Global 815 800
750 750
Scotiabank 790 720
Société Générale 830 -
UBS 800 770
650 650
Summary
Minimum 750 700
Maximum 852 830
550 550 Median 800 770
Consensus 803 768
History
27 | CLP per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution 30 days ago 820 775
60% 60 days ago 821 777
90 days ago 769 750
40%
20%
0%
<650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 >1000
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
25 Exchange rate, evolution of 2020 forecast during the last 18 months.


% of GDP USD bn Chile
AGPV - - 9.0 8.0 4
BCI 2.6 1.0 - -
BICE Inversiones -0.4 -0.7 - -
BTG Pactual 1.7 0.1 13.6 10.1 0
CorpResearch -0.8 -1.4 10.0 8.5
-4
DekaBank -5.4 -4.8 - -
EIU -4.5 -4.0 2.8 5.5
Euromonitor Int. -1.6 -2.0 - -
-8
Fitch Solutions -4.0 -3.4 3.1 5.1 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Gemines -0.5 -0.4 10.3 10.1
Goldman Sachs -0.7 -2.5 10.8 7.7
HSBC -0.6 0.1 12.0 12.6 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Inversiones Security 0.0 -1.8 13.9 1.9
Itaú Unibanco 0.0 -1.4 - - -1.1
JPMorgan -0.3 -2.0 9.7 9.8 2020 2021

Le Fort Economía y Finanzas -0.7 -1.3 7.6 7.1
Moody's Analytics -2.4 -1.5 - - -1.6
Oxford Economics -3.6 -2.7 5.6 6.5
Scotiabank -1.5 -0.5 - -
Société Générale -1.1 -1.9 - - -2.1
UBS -0.8 -1.1 9.4 11.1
Summary
Minimum -5.4 -4.8 2.8 1.9 -2.6
Maximum 2.6 1.0 13.9 12.6
Median -0.8 -1.6 9.6 7.8
Consensus -1.3 -1.8 8.9 7.9 -3.1
History
30 days ago -2.0 -2.2 8.9 8.3
60 days ago -2.0 -2.0 8.1 7.8 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
90 days ago -1.7 -1.7 8.9 8.7
100
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
11
2020 2021
Notes and sources

5
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr


Exports Imports 60
USD bn USD bn Chile
AGPV 62.0 70.0 53.0 62.0
BTG Pactual 63.5 69.6 49.9 59.4 30
CorpResearch 63.5 67.5 53.5 59.0
EIU 62.4 69.0 59.6 63.5
Gemines 62.9 67.9 52.6 57.8
Goldman Sachs 59.6 73.4 48.8 65.7
HSBC 69.0 73.2 57.0 60.6 -30
Inversiones Security 70.1 77.8 56.2 75.9 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
JPMorgan 66.0 70.7 56.3 60.9

Le Fort Economía y Finanzas 62.0 64.8 54.4 57.7
Oxford Economics 56.6 68.4 51.0 62.0 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
UBS 59.5 69.2 50.1 58.1
Summary 96
Minimum 56.6 64.8 48.8 57.7

Maximum 70.1 77.8 60.7 75.9
Median 63.3 69.6 54.0 61.4 86
Consensus 63.4 70.0 54.5 62.1

History
30 days ago 62.5 70.4 53.7 62.1 76
60 days ago 60.6 68.3 52.4 60.5

90 days ago 71.6 74.8 62.7 66.1
66
2020 2021
56
40
20
-20
Chile
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
85
75
65
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes 55
2020 2021


USD bn USD bn Chile
AGPV 37.0 39.0 - - 10

Citigroup Global Mkts 37.9 37.9 - -
EIU 33.0 38.7 220 223
Fitch Solutions 39.4 40.6 - -
Gemines 38.0 38.0 210 222
Goldman Sachs 37.0 39.0 205 211 6
HSBC 38.5 38.5 210 219
Inversiones Security 38.5 39.0 200 203
4
JPMorgan 36.7 36.7 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Oxford Economics 40.1 43.7 203 208
UBS 38.9 45.4 203 208 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Summary
Minimum 33.0 35.0 200 203 47
Maximum 40.1 45.4 220 223

Median 38.2 39.0 205 211
Consensus 37.8 39.6 207 214 44
History
30 days ago 37.4 39.4 202 212
60 days ago 36.2 39.1 207 215 41
90 days ago 39.3 41.0 203 212
38
2020 2021
35
90
Chile
Latin America
70
50
30
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
220
210
Notes and sources

200
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021

Fact Sheet
General Data Chile in the Region

Official name: Republic of Chile Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Santiago (6.7 m)
Chile Chile
Other cities: Valparaíso (0.9 m) 3.1% 5.7%
Concepción (0.9 m)
Area (km2): 756,102 Other
Population (million, 2019 est.): 19.1 Other 18.7%
25.1%
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.7 Brazil
34.9% Colombia
6.4% Brazil
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 79.4 36.1%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 3.6 Argentina Argentina

7.5% 8.6%
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system Colombia
8.4%
Time: GMT-3 Mexico Mexico
20.9% 24.7%
Economic Structure
GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 16.0
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 134 100
2010-12 2013-15 2016-18
100
2010-12 2013-15 2016-18

80 80
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 419 60
Manufacturing
60
Investment

Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 76.2
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 72.0 40 Other Industry 40
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 11.3

Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 83.4 Consumption
Transportation (2018) 0 0
Airports: 481
Roadways (km): 77,801 Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Valparaíso, San Antonio Primary markets | share in %
U.S.A.
Other Other
Political Data 13.4%
12.1%
7.9%
U.S.A.
20.4%
President: Sebastián Piñera LatAm
14.3%
Japan
6.7%

Brazil
6.4%
Last elections: 17 December 2017

Exports EU-27 Other Imports
Central Bank President: Mario Marcel Cullell Korea
8.7% 13.4% LatAm EU-27
17.0% 14.6%

Other Asia

ex-Japan Other Asia
6.3% ex-Japan
China China 7.3%
29.7%

Moody’s: A1 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: A+ Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: A Negative
Other
Other Food 1.9%
Manufact.
Strengths Weaknesses 0.9%
Products 9.7%
Food 14.5%
25.1% Mineral
• Market oriented policy firmly • High dependence on copper Fuels
14.9%
anchored exports

• Structurally sound and prudent • Relatively small domestic Agric. Exports Imports
fiscal policy market Raw Mat.
6.4%
• Free trade agreements with
Manufact.
major economic areas Ores & Products
Metals 73.5%
• Low import tariffs have created 53.1%
competitive industry .

FOCUSECONOMICS Colombia June 2020
Colombia
Colombia
• Incoming data points to an unprecedented collapse in economic activity in

the second quarter due to the economic fallout from Covid-19 containment
measures across the globe and low oil prices, after growth slid to a three-
low at the start of the year. Industrial production nosedived over 35% and
exports plummeted over 50% in April, both recording the worst results on
record, while consumer confidence plunged to a record low in the same
month. Moreover, soft data suggests that conditions remained abysmal
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages in May: The manufacturing PMI recorded one of the worst results on
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
record, second only to April’s grim reading. Exacerbating matters, while
Population (million): 49.3 50.9 52.3 some sectors have been able to gradually reopen in recent weeks, the
GDP (USD bn): 309 299 358
government has extended the lockdown to contain the health crisis to
GDP growth (%): 2.0 0.9 3.5 1 July for badly hit cities. Colombia is thus on track to have one of the
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.6 -4.3 -2.7 world’s longest lockdowns.
Inflation (%): 5.0 3.2 3.3
Current Account (% of GDP): -3.8 -4.1 -3.5 • GDP is seen falling for the first time since 2000 this year, as dual shocks
External Debt (% of GDP) 40.7 47.3 45.0
from the coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices dent activity. The
Angela Bouzanis government has limited room to maneuver as low oil prices dent revenues
Lead Economist and due to sizable twin deficits. Risks to the outlook stem from volatile
commodity prices and concerns over Colombia’s critical investment grade
status. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 4.2% in 2020,
which is down 1.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021,
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts panelists see GDP growing 3.7%.
10 4
5 2
• Inflation dropped to 2.9% in May from April’s 3.5%, marking the lowest
reading since June 2014. Inflation lies around the midpoint of the Central
0 0
Bank’s target band of 3.0% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. Contracting
-5 -2
economic activity should keep price pressures in check ahead. Our panel
sees inflation see inflation ending 2020 at 2.6% and at 3.0% in 2021.
-10 -4
2020 2021
-15 -6 • On 29 May, the Central Bank decided to cut the policy rate to a new

historical low of 2.75% to support the economy against the grim panorama.
2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months. The move marked the third consecutive cut. Most of our analysts see
the policy rate falling further by year-end amid contained inflation and
depressed activity. The panel forecasts the policy rate to end 2020 at
2.27% and 2021 at 2.98%.
9.5
Colombia
3.4 • The Colombian peso has recovered some lost ground after hitting a
8.0
Latin America
record low in March, helped by revived oil prices and a weak U.S. dollar.
3.2
On 12 June, the COP ended the day at 3,779 per USD, marking a 2.7%
6.5
appreciation from the same day last month. The peso is seen remaining
3.0
5.0
under pressure this year amid low oil prices and a fragile external position.
2.8
FocusEconomics analysts see the peso ending 2020 at 3,822 per USD
3.5
2020 2021 and 2021 at 3,671 per USD.
2.0 2.6

Industrial Production | variation in % REAL SECTOR | Industrial activity contracts at sharpest pace on record
20 6.0
in April
Industrial production in the manufacturing sector declined a notable 35.8%
year-on-year in April (March: -8.7% yoy). April’s figure marked the worst
0 3.0 reading on record and came amid shutdown measures to contain the Covid-19
health crisis. According to DANE, the reading was largely broad-based, with
% %
33 of 39 subsectors reporting falling output.
-20 0.0
Accordingly, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of
Year-on-year (left scale)
Annual average variation (right scale)
industrial production coming in at minus 2.1%, down from March’s plus 0.7%.
-40 -3.0
Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report see industrial production
Note: Year-on-year changes of industrial production in the manufacturing sector
in %. falling 6.3% in 2020, which is down 1.6 percentage points from last month’s
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
forecast. For 2021, the panel projects industrial production to rise 4.0%.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that

GDP will contract 4.2% in 2020, which is down 1.1 percentage points from last
month’s forecast. For 2021, panelists project that GDP will grow 3.7%.
REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI records another historic low in May

The seasonally-adjusted Davivienda manufacturing Purchasing Managers’
Purchasing Managers’ Index
Index came in at dismal 37.2 in May, marking the second-lowest reading on
record. The index was up slightly from April’s nosedive to a record-low of
60
27.2 amid lockdown restrictions and a halt in the global economy due to the
coronavirus pandemic. The PMI lies far below the critical 50-threshold and
50
indicates a deterioration in the manufacturing sector.
40
Behind the dismal reading was sharp declines in both output and new orders
in May. Although some manufacturers were able to resume operations after
30
closing due to lockdown measures, this was typically at a reduced capacity.
Firms reported that domestic and foreign clients largely remained closed
20
in May and, accordingly, jobs were shed for a second consecutive month.
Meanwhile, cost inflationary pressures rose sharply in the month, on the back
Note: Davivienda Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Readings above 50 indicate
an improvement in business conditions while readings below 50 point to a
of a stronger U.S. dollar and shortages of some materials as the coronavirus
deterioration.
Source: IHS Markit and Davivienda.
pandemic hit supply chains. On a brighter note, business sentiment improved
in the month, although still remained at a low historical level.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists project fixed investment to shrink

8.4% in 2020, which is down 1.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
For 2021, panelists see fixed investment growing 4.1%.
OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment plummets to record low in April

Consumer Confidence
The Fedesarrollo consumer confidence index nosedived to minus 41.3 in
25
April, from minus 23.8 in March, and marked the worst reading on record
since the series began in November 2001. The index thus moved further away
0 from the critical zero-threshold separating pessimism and optimism among
consumers.
-25 April’s significant downturn largely reflected a sharp deterioration in households’

perception of their current financial situation compared to 12 months ago,
as well as in their willingness to purchase large-ticket items. Furthermore,
-50
consumers’ expectations of general economic conditions in the coming year
turned markedly more pessimistic compared to the previous month. Moreover,
Note: Index of consumer sentiment. Values above 0 indicate optimistic on whether the economy will be in a “good” or “bad” state in the coming year,
perception, below 0 indicate negative perception.
Source: Fedesarrollo. more consumers expected the latter in April.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants see private consumption falling

4.5% in 2020, which is down 1.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
For 2021, panelists project private consumption to grow 4.5%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation plunges to lowest level since June 2014

in May
Consumer prices dropped a seasonally-adjusted 0.32% from the last month
0.8 4.0
in May, contrasting April’s 0.16% increase and marking the lowest result on
record. The fall was largely broad-based, with prices for most subcomponents
falling in the wake of plunging demand due to the coronavirus pandemic.
0.4 3.5
Notably, transport prices fall sharply in the month.
% %
Inflation came in at 2.9% in May, down from April’s 3.5%. May’s reading
0.0 3.0
marked the lowest inflation rate since June 2014. Meanwhile, the trend was
unchanged with annual average inflation coming in at April’s 3.7% in May.
-0.4 2.5
Lastly, core inflation fell to 2.6% from April’s 3.0%.
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of cons. price index in %. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE).
inflation will end 2020 at 2.6%, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last
month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees inflation ending the year at 3.0%.
MONETARY SECTOR | BanRep slashes policy rate to new record low

On 29 May, Colombia’s Central Bank (BanRep) decided to cut the benchmark
interest rate by 50 basis points to a new record low of 2.75%. The move
Monetary Policy Rate | In % marked the Bank’s third consecutive cut as it tries to support the economy
8 amid a likely deep recession due to the Covid-19 pandemic and low oil prices.
The decision was, however, not unanimous: Two board members voted for a
smaller 25-basis-point cut.
6
Falling inflation and grim economic conditions fueled BanRep’s decision to

%
cut rates once again in May. In its accompanying statement, the Bank stated
4 that inflation expectations continued to drop in April and that there appears
to be growing able spare capacity in the Colombian economy and a drastic
worsening in the labor market. In addition, a recent improvement in financial
2
and exchange rate markets have helped create space for the Bank to provide
additional monetary policy stimulus.
Note: Central Bank policy rate in %.
Source: Colombia Central Bank (BanRep).
Looking ahead, the Bank’s communiqué was devoid of forward guidance;
however, most of our FocusEconomics’ panelists see the Bank chopping the
policy rate further to support the battered economy.
The next meeting will be held on 30 June.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project the

Exports | variation in %
policy rate to end 2020 at 2.27%. For 2021, the panel sees the policy rate
ending the year at 2.98%.
60
Year-on-year Annual average

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports plunge at record-low pace in April amid
30
global shutdown
Merchandise exports plummeted 52.3% over the same month last year in
0
April, the worst decline on record as the coronavirus pandemic halted the
%
domestic and global economy (March: -28.5% year-on-year). Export sales
-30
were down across all major subcomponents, with sales of fuels and minerals
nosediving around 70% annually.
-60
In March—the latest month for which data is available—imports fell 16.9%

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in % of export growth.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE).
over the same month of 2019, which contrasted February’s 0.2% rise.

Accordingly, the trade deficit widened to USD 1.0 billion in March from the
USD 0.8 billion shortfall in the same month of 2019.
In 2020, merchandise exports are forecast to fall to USD 31.6 billion and
imports to USD 41.7 billion. Next year, exports are seen rising to USD 36.3
billion and imports to USD 44.6 billion.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 293 283 312 333 324 276 298 330 358 386
GDP (COP tn) 805 864 920 986 1,062 1,046 1,108 1,201 1,283 1,364
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.9 1.8 3.6 7.0 4.3 4.7 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.4 -2.9 1.9 1.5 4.3 -8.4 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.7 -0.2 2.6 0.9 2.6 -9.9 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 2.0 4.1 -0.5 3.8 1.5 -6.3 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.4
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 6.4 2.0 -0.1 5.4 8.1 5.0 5.9 6.2 6.2 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 12.5 6.9 7.1 5.0 8.7 - - - - -
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 5.2 6.2 4.9 3.2 3.4 - - - - -
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 5.75 7.50 4.75 4.25 4.25 2.27 2.98 3.81 4.14 4.48
90-day DTF (%, eop) 5.24 6.92 5.28 4.54 4.52 2.55 3.45 3.91 4.30 4.68
Stock Market (ann. var. of IGBC %) -26.5 18.2 13.6 -2.9 19.3 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 3,175 3,002 2,985 3,248 3,287 3,822 3,671 3,607 3,558 3,509
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 2,749 3,052 2,952 2,958 3,283 3,791 3,715 3,639 3,583 3,534
External Sector
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -13.5 -9.2 -4.5 -5.1 -8.5 -10.1 -8.3 -7.1 -6.2 -5.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -15.4 -16.9 2.3 12.1 2.5 -17.9 7.0 8.1 8.3 8.4
External Debt (USD bn) 112 120 125 132 138 137 147 155 161 167
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.5 3.5 1.1 -11.1 -5.0 -2.6 0.2 9.5 4.2 2.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.0 4.5 3.8 -9.5 -4.6 -2.4 -0.6 9.6 6.7 5.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.9 0.3 -4.9 -14.4 -7.8 -4.0 -1.1 5.9 5.3 3.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.5 1.1 -0.4 -11.0 -8.4 -3.6 1.1 7.4 4.6 4.0
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.25 4.25 3.75 2.43 2.29 2.27 2.44 2.71 2.83 2.98
90-day DTF (%, eop) 4.48 4.52 4.50 3.41 2.84 2.55 2.91 3.23 3.41 3.45
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 3,344 3,404 3,548 3,960 3,839 3,819 3,790 3,721 3,678 3,671
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.8 -2.4 -2.1 -1.5 -2.9 -3.1 - - - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 10.3 10.2 9.3 7.8 7.6 7.8 - - - -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 13.1 12.6 11.4 9.4 10.5 10.9 - - - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 0.3 0.4 2.2 -2.0 3.3 3.6 4.5 -8.7 -35.8 -
Davivienda Colombia Manufacturing PMI 50.3 50.9 51.1 52.9 52.4 53.4 52.5 49.3 27.6 37.2
Consumer Confidence Index (0-pt threshold) -11.8 -10.7 -9.8 -14.4 -9.5 -1.2 -11.2 -23.8 -41.3 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.09 0.23 0.16 0.10 0.26 0.42 0.67 0.57 0.16 -0.32
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -11.4 -12.7 -11.7 -12.0 -2.3 11.6 -7.5 -28.5 -52.3 -

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17-Q4 21 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

AGPV -3.1 3.6
Banco Davivienda -4.5 -
5
4 Bancolombia -6.0 4.8
BBVA Research -3.1 3.9
0 CABI -4.3 3.0
0 Capital Economics -7.0 5.0
-5 Citigroup Global Mkts -3.7 3.5
Corficolombiana -2.6 2.8
-4 Credicorp Capital -5.5 2.5
-10
Colombia
Colombia DekaBank -2.7 3.8
Latin America
World
Latin America DuckerFrontier -4.3 3.7
World
-8 -15 EIU -7.7 5.2
Fedesarrollo -2.7 -
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Fitch Solutions -2.2 3.0
5 8 HSBC -4.5 2.0
JPMorgan -6.5 3.9
6 Julius Baer -3.0 3.5
0 Kiel Institute -3.6 5.3
Moody's Analytics -5.2 3.7
4 Oxford Economics -5.2 5.5
Pezco Economics -4.2 3.2
-5 Polinomics -3.1 2.0
Maximum 2 Positiva Compañía de Seguros -5.0 4.5
Maximum
Consensus Consensus S&P Global -2.6 4.1
Minimum Minimum Scotiabank -4.9 4.2
-10 0 Société Générale -1.9 3.5
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr UBS -3.5 3.8
Summary
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution Minimum -7.7 2.0
Maximum -1.9 5.5
40%
Median -4.2 3.7
Consensus -4.2 3.7
History
30%
30 days ago -3.1 3.6
60 days ago -1.1 3.5
90 days ago 3.0 3.2
20%
Ministry of Finance (June 2020) -5.5 -
CAF (June 2020) -5.3 4.4
10% World Bank (June 2020) -4.9 3.6
0%
<-9.0 -7.5 -6.0 -4.5 -3.0 -1.5 0.0 1.5 >1.5
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
(DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.


8
Banco Davivienda -3.7 - - - 4
Bancolombia -6.4 - -22.1 -
BBVA Research -4.8 5.6 -8.1 2.8
CABI - - -4.0 2.0 0
DuckerFrontier -4.2 3.5 - - -4
EIU -9.2 6.1 - - Colombia
Euromonitor Int. -1.0 3.8 - - Latin America
Fedesarrollo -4.2 - - - -8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Goldman Sachs -2.9 5.6 -6.2 8.3
HSBC -6.5 3.0 -13.3 -2.0
Moody's Analytics -4.2 4.4 -5.8 4.1 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
6
S&P Global -4.5 4.8 - -
UBS -3.7 3.5 -7.4 4.0
3
Summary
Minimum -9.2 3.0 -22.1 -2.0
Maximum -1.0 6.6 -3.4 8.3
0
Median -4.2 4.1 -6.8 4.2
Consensus -4.5 4.5 -8.4 4.1
History -3
30 days ago -3.4 3.9 -6.9 3.2
60 days ago -1.3 3.6 -2.7 2.9 2020 2021
90 days ago 3.6 3.5 2.9 3.8

-6
30
Colombia
Latin America
20
10
-10
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources

-4
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo
Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. -8
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 2020 2021
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. -12
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

15 Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance

Colombia variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
10
Banco Davivienda -8.4 - - - -6.7 -
Bancolombia - - - - -6.1 -
5 BBVA Research - - 17.0 14.1 -5.8 -3.9
Capital Economics - - - - -5.0 -4.0
0 DekaBank - - - - -5.4 -3.9
DuckerFrontier -8.2 7.5 - - - -
EIU -7.0 3.4 20.0 16.6 -7.1 -4.4
-5
Euromonitor Int. -2.1 2.9 - - - -
Fedesarrollo - - 16.3 - -5.6 -
-10 Fitch Solutions - - 13.3 11.7 - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Goldman Sachs - - - - -6.1 -3.5
HSBC -13.2 2.6 - - -6.0 -3.4
Itaú Unibanco - - 16.0 14.0 - -
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts JPMorgan - - - - -7.0 -4.8
6
Oxford Economics -1.6 4.2 - - -5.5 -3.4
Pezco Economics - - - - -6.7 -5.2
3 Scotiabank - - 18.0 13.2 - -
Société Générale - - 13.2 13.0 - -
UBS -4.5 3.5 15.3 13.6 -6.3 -5.5
0
Summary
Minimum -13.2 2.6 13.2 11.7 -7.1 -5.5
-3 Maximum -1.6 7.5 20.0 16.6 -5.0 -3.4
Median -6.1 3.5 16.0 13.4 -6.1 -4.0
-6 Consensus -6.3 4.0 16.1 13.7 -6.1 -4.3
2020 2021 History
30 days ago -4.7 3.8 14.1 12.4 -5.7 -3.8
-9 60 days ago -5.0 4.2 13.0 11.9 -4.1 -3.4
90 days ago 2.6 3.1 10.3 9.9 -2.3 -2.2
25
Colombia
Latin America
20
15
10
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-2
-4
Notes and sources

-6
All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística)
-8 and the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Colombia Forecast.
Latin America 10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: DANE.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: DANE.
13 Central government balance as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in % 14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2024 | in %

Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 8
AGPV 3.0 3.1 - -
Banco Davivienda 2.1 - 2.7 -
6
Bancolombia 1.5 - 2.7 -
BBVA Research 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.7
CABI - - 2.0 2.5 4
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.2 2.8 3.0 2.4 2
Corficolombiana 3.4 - - - Colombia
Credicorp Capital 2.1 2.5 - - Latin America
0
DekaBank - - 1.9 3.2 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
DuckerFrontier - - 3.1 3.7
EIU 1.1 4.3 1.9 3.2
Euromonitor Int. - - 3.2 3.1 15 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in %
Fedesarrollo 3.5 3.2 - -
9
HSBC 3.7 1.5 3.8 1.9
6
JPMorgan 1.6 2.7 3.2 -
3
Colombia
Polinomics 2.5 3.0 - -
Latin America
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 2.9 3.0 - -
0
S&P Global 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.6 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
Scotiabank 3.2 3.1 - -
UBS 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
Summary
5
Minimum 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.9
Maximum 3.7 4.3 3.8 3.8
Median 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.2 4
Consensus 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.1
History
3
30 days ago 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.1
60 days ago 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.2
90 days ago 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.2 2
Additional Forecasts Maximum
IMF (Apr. 2020) 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.2
1 Consensus
CAF (May 2020) 3.7 3.2 - -
Minimum
World Bank (Apr. 2020) - - 3.4 3.5
0

5
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
4
3
Notes and sources
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical 2
Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts are based on
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 1
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

Colombia AGPV 2.50 2.50
Latin America Banco Davivienda 2.25 -
15 11 Bancolombia 1.25 -
BBVA Research 2.50 3.00
CABI 2.25 2.75
10 7 Capital Economics 2.75 2.75
Corficolombiana 2.00 -
5 4 Credicorp Capital 2.25 2.25
Colombia
Latin America Goldman Sachs 2.25 3.75
0 0 HSBC 2.25 2.25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
JPMorgan 2.00 -
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst Moody's Analytics 2.25 4.00
8 8
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 2.25 4.25
6 6
UBS 2.75 3.50
Summary
4 4 Minimum 1.25 2.00
Maximum 2.75 4.25
Maximum Maximum Median 2.25 2.88
2 2
Consensus Consensus 2.27 2.98
Consensus
Minimum
History
Minimum
30 days ago 2.68 3.23
0 0 60 days ago 3.04 3.60
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 90 days ago 4.21 4.55
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
<0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 >4.00
Notes and sources
from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD Exchange Rate | COP per USD
4,000 4,500 Individual Forecasts 2020 2021

AGPV 3,900 3,800
Banco Davivienda 3,625 -
3,500
4,000 Bancolombia 4,000 -
BBVA Research 3,840 3,430
3,000 CABI 3,900 3,900
3,500 Capital Economics 3,800 3,700
2,500 Citigroup Global Mkts 3,718 3,594
Corficolombiana 3,755 -
3,000 Credicorp Capital 3,500 3,300
2,000
EIU 4,003 3,685
Fitch Solutions 3,875 3,935
1,500 2,500 Goldman Sachs 3,700 3,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 HSBC 4,000 4,000
Itaú Unibanco 3,800 3,700
25 | COP per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | COP per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst JPMorgan 3,800 -
Moody's Analytics 3,687 3,599
4,500 4,500
Maximum Maximum Oxford Economics 3,556 3,331
Consensus Consensus Pezco Economics 4,200 4,150
Minimum Minimum Positiva Compañía de Seguros 3,692 3,200
4,000 4,000
S&P Global 3,850 3,800
Scotiabank 3,654 3,450
Société Générale 4,050 -
3,500 3,500 UBS 4,000 3,900
Summary
Minimum 3,500 3,200
3,000 3,000 Maximum 4,200 4,150
Median 3,800 3,693
Consensus 3,822 3,671
2,500 2,500 History
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 30 days ago 3,932 3,785
60 days ago 3,895 3,775
27 | COP per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution 90 days ago 3,442 3,372
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
<3000 3,300 3,600 3,900 4,200 4,500 4,800 5,100 >5100
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn Colombia
Latin America
0
AGPV - - -12.0 -11.0
Bancolombia -3.9 - - -
BBVA Research -3.9 -3.8 - - -2
CABI - - -16.8 -12.9

Capital Economics -2.0 -3.0 - - -4
Citigroup Global Mkts -3.4 -2.9 -4.0 1.2
Corficolombiana -3.6 - - - -6
DekaBank -5.1 -4.4 - -
EIU -5.2 -4.2 - -
-8
Euromonitor Int. -5.0 -4.5 - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fedesarrollo -5.4 - -10.4 -
Fitch Solutions -4.9 -4.5 -7.8 -8.0
Goldman Sachs -3.3 -3.4 -6.8 -8.5
HSBC -4.4 -3.3 -12.2 -7.1 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Itaú Unibanco -3.3 -3.7 - -
-2.5
JPMorgan -3.9 -3.6 -10.7 -9.3
Moody's Analytics -3.7 -3.0 - -
Oxford Economics -5.6 -5.1 -14.6 -12.1 -3.0
Société Générale -5.0 -5.0 - -
UBS -3.4 -3.6 -5.8 -7.1 -3.5
Summary
Minimum -5.6 -5.1 -16.8 -12.9
-4.0
Maximum -2.0 -2.9 -4.0 1.2
Median -3.9 -3.7 -10.6 -8.5
Consensus -4.2 -3.9 -10.1 -8.3 -4.5
History 2020 2021
30 days ago -4.3 -4.0 -11.7 -10.6

-5.0
60 days ago -4.6 -4.1 -10.9 -11.4 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
90 days ago -4.3 -4.0 -9.6 -9.9

90
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
60
30
-30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-6
-8
Notes and sources

-10
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP. 2020 2021
29 Current account balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-12


Exports Imports 60
USD bn USD bn
40
AGPV 31.0 36.0 43.0 47.0
CABI 32.7 37.6 49.5 50.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 26.8 32.3 30.8 31.1 20
Fedesarrollo 33.0 - 43.4 -
0
Goldman Sachs 31.8 35.2 38.6 43.7
HSBC 33.6 40.3 45.8 47.4
JPMorgan 31.2 34.7 41.9 44.0 -20
Oxford Economics 27.8 35.4 42.5 47.5 Colombia
UBS 29.7 35.0 35.5 42.2 Latin America
-40
Summary 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Minimum 26.8 32.3 30.8 31.1
Maximum 38.5 40.4 49.5 50.5
Median 31.5 35.4 42.7 47.0 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Consensus 31.6 36.3 41.7 44.6
55
History
30 days ago 31.2 36.2 42.9 46.9
60 days ago 33.2 37.7 44.2 49.1 50
90 days ago 44.7 47.3 54.2 57.3
45
40
35
2020 2021
30
40
20
-20
Colombia
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
60
54
48
Notes and sources
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021


USD bn USD bn Colombia
AGPV 52.0 53.0 - - 15
Banco Davivienda 53.3 - - -
EIU 46.1 47.9 142 145 10
Euromonitor Int. 55.2 57.4 - -
Fitch Solutions 55.7 58.5 147 153
Goldman Sachs 53.3 53.9 126 136 5
HSBC 52.3 58.2 134 149
JPMorgan 52.3 52.3 131 - 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Oxford Economics 47.7 48.6 - -
UBS 52.8 52.2 145 152
Summary 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Minimum 46.1 47.9 126 136
56
Maximum 55.7 58.5 147 153
Median 52.8 53.0 138 149
Consensus 52.4 53.4 137 147
54
History
30 days ago 52.1 52.9 142 145
60 days ago 52.2 52.5 142 148
52
90 days ago 53.3 54.6 143 152
50
2020 2021
48
60
Colombia
Latin America
50
40
30
20
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
165
2020 2021
155
Notes and sources

145
37 International reserves, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
135
38 External debt as % of GDP.

Fact Sheet
General Data Colombia in the Region

Official name: Republic of Colombia Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Bogotá (10.6m)
Other cities: Medellín (3.9m)
Colombia Colombia
Cali (2.7m) 8.4% 6.4%
Area (km2): 1,138,910
Other
Population (million, 2019 est.): 50.4 Other
22.9% 18.7%
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 76.6 Peru Brazil
5.5%
Brazil
36.1%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018 est.): 4.9 5.4% 34.9%
Argentina
Language: Spanish Argentina 8.6%
7.5%
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-5 Mexico Mexico
20.9% 24.7%
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 130 100
2010-12 2013-15 2016-18
110
2010-12 2013-15 2016-18

80
80
Energy (2017)
Manufacturing Investment

50
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 67.9 40 Other Industry
Consumption

20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 338 20 Private
Services
Transportation (2018) 0 -10
Airports: 836
Chief Ports: Cartagena, Buenaventura
Other
8.9%
Political Data Other
Brazil
18.4% 6.1% U.S.A.
President: Iván Duque Márquez U.S.A. 25.2%
29.4% Mexico
Last elections: 17 June 2018
Panama
7.1%
Next elections: 2022 7.0%

Exports Other
Imports
LatAm
Central Bank President: Juan José Echavarría 7.0%

Agency
Moody’s:
Rating
Baa2
Outlook
Stable Other EU-27
S&P Global Ratings: BBB- Negative
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Negative
12.3%
Other EU-27
LatAm 14.2% China
23.3% France
19.5%
China Other Asia 5.7%
7.7% ex-Japan
8.2%

Moody’s: Baa2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BBB- Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Negative
Other Other
Food
Strengths Weaknesses Food
16.3%
5.6% 12.7%
3.6%

Manufact. Mineral
• Plentiful natural resources, • Vulnerability to downward shifts Products Fuels
22.6% 7.9%

including coffee, oil and gas, coal, in international commodity prices
gold • Relatively undiversified economy Exports Imports

• Ports on two oceans and large informal sector
• Consolidated financial system • Shortages of skilled labor and
• Thriving tourism sector poor productivity Manufact.
Mineral Products
• Poverty and high inequality Fuels 75.7%
55.6%

FOCUSECONOMICS Mexico June 2020
Mexico
Mexico
• Incoming data already shows signs of the full scale of the Covid-19 shock
after the economy contracted at the sharpest pace in over a decade in
the first quarter. The number of formal job losses during March–May has
exceeded 1 million as a result of the lockdown measures put into place,
with the vast majority having been permanent jobs. In addition, in April,
merchandise exports collapsed by almost half, the most on record, while
production and exports in the key automotive industry crashed again by
over 90% in May amid the shutdown of assembly plants. Also in May,
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
the manufacturing PMI slid to a new record low and the services PMI
Population (million): 124 127 130 remained at historic lows despite edging higher—all signaling the massive
GDP (USD bn): 1,153 1,142 1,312
hit expected for the economy in Q2. Earlier in the month, the government
GDP growth (%): 2.3 -1.7 2.3 launched its phased reopening of the economy; however, a state of
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.9 -3.3 -3.2 maximum alert remains in place in half of the country as it battles to keep
Inflation (%): 4.6 3.3 3.5 the pandemic under control.
• The pandemic is set to push the economy into a deep recession this year.
Javier Colato Mobility restrictions and rising unemployment are set to pummel consumer
Economist spending; investment will be derailed amid subdued confidence; and
exports will suffer amid a halt in tourism, low oil prices and weak U.S.
demand. The underwhelming fiscal response to the crisis clouds the
outlook further. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to shrink
10 3 7.5% in 2020, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s
forecast, and grow 2.9% in 2021.
5
0
0 • Inflation rebounded from April’s over four-year low of 2.1% to 2.8% in May,
-3
thus moving closer to the midpoint of Banxico’s 2.0%–4.0% target range.
-5
Core inflation, meanwhile, continues to prove sticky, hovering at 3.5%–
-6
-10
2020 2021
4.0% for over two years now. Price pressures are expected to remain
contained ahead in part due to the sizeable output gap. FocusEconomics
-15 -9
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr panelists see inflation ending 2020 at 2.9% and 2021 at 3.3%.
• At its 14 May meeting, Banxico unanimously decided to slash the target
rate by 50 basis points to 5.50%, the lowest since November 2016. The
economic blow dealt by Covid-19 and subdued short-term inflationary
10 3.8 expectations underpinned Banxico’s decision. The next meeting is
scheduled for 25 June. All of our panelists see Banxico further easing its
3.6
stance by year-end. FocusEconomics analysts expect the target rate to
7
3.4 end 2020 at 4.38% and 2021 at 4.39%.
3.2
4 • Over the past month, the peso recovered some of its heavy coronavirus-
Mexico
3.0 inflicted losses in March on the back of a weaker greenback and improving
Latin America 2020 2021
global market sentiment. On 12 June, the MXN traded at 22.23 per USD,
1 2.8
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr appreciating 9.8% month-on-month. The peso is expected to hold broadly
variation in %, Q1 2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months. steady against the USD this year but remains vulnerable to market
volatility. Our panel projects the MXN to end 2020 at 22.87 per USD and
2021 at 22.13 per USD.

Gross Domestic Product | variation in % REAL SECTOR | Economy shrinks at fastest pace in over a decade in Q1
on initial coronavirus impact
10
The economy contracted at the steepest rate since the 2009 global financial
5
crisis in the first quarter as the Covid-19 pandemic started to bite, with GDP
falling 1.4% on an annual basis (Q4 2019: -0.7% year-on-year). The decline
0 in output was smaller than the 1.6% contraction reported in the preliminary
% estimate. On a seasonally-adjusted, quarter-on-quarter basis, economic
-5 activity shrank 1.2% in Q1, greater than Q4 2019’s 0.6% fall and also revised
up from the 1.6% downturn reported in the flash estimate.
-10
The marked contraction in Q1 was driven by the initial effects of the

-15
Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 coronavirus outbreak and associated containment measures that began to
be implemented in March. Industrial sector output tumbled 2.9% year-on-year
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and LatinFocus Consensus (Q4 2019: -2.0% yoy), dragged down by a steep fall in construction activity and
Forecast.
manufacturing production. Similarly, services activity—the economy’s growth
engine—declined 0.7% (Q4 2019: -0.2% yoy) as the leisure and hospitality
sectors reeled amid the suspension of non-essential activities. Lastly, primary
sector activity expanded 1.4% in annual terms, rebounding from the 0.3% slip
recorded in the prior quarter—cushioning the overall downturn to some extent.
The INEGI will release a second GDP estimate on 19 June.
Economic Activity | variation in % The LatinFocus panel projects the economy to shrink 7.5% in 2020, which is
1.2 6
down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel
0.6 4
sees GDP growth at 2.9%.
0.0 2 REAL SECTOR | Economic activity shrinks at fastest rate in over a

% %
decade in March
-0.6 0
The monthly indicator for economic activity (IGAE) fell 1.3% in seasonally-
-1.2 -2 adjusted, month-on-month terms in March, following February’s 0.6% slip and
Year-on-year (right scale) marking the worst decline since January 2009.
-1.8 -4
Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20
March’s downturn reflected in large part the impact from the containment
Note: Month-on-month (s.a.) and year-on-year changes of economic activity measures put in place to combat Covid-19’s spread. Both industrial and
indicator in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics services-sector activity contracted heavily, while the primary sector grew
calculations.
robustly—cushioning the overall slump.
On a year-on-year basis, economic activity shrank 2.3% in March, following

the 0.6% dip logged in February. Lastly, the annual average variation economic
activity slid to minus 0.8% from minus 0.5% in from the previous month.
Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project

fixed investment to plummet 14.3% in 2020, which is down 0.4 percentage
Consumer Confidence points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees fixed investment
50
expanding 2.0%.
45
OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment falls to over year-low in March
Consumer confidence declined to its lowest point since November 2018 in
40
March, with the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence indicator published
by the Statistical Institute (INEGI) coming in at 42.6, below February’s revised
43.8 reading (previously reported: 43.9).
35
March’s result reflected a broad-based deterioration of the indicator’s

30
Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 sub-components. Households’ assessment over the general economic
environment in the year ahead and the current state of the economy turned
Note: Consumer confidence indicator. (ICC, Indicador de Confianza del
Consumidor). gloomier compared to February. Meanwhile, their appraisal about their current
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).

financial situation and their ability to purchase big-ticket items worsened.

Lastly, consumers’ perception regarding their financial situation in 12 months’
time turned less positive compared to the previous month.
Due to the state of emergency declared amid the Covid-19 pandemic, INEGI
will suspend the publication of the consumer confidence survey until further
notice starting April 2020.
Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project

private consumption to decline 7.0% in 2020, which is down 0.3 percentage
points from last month’s projection, and expand 3.2% in 2021.
OUTLOOK | Manufacturing PMIs diverge but remain in dire conditions

amid Covid-19 blow
The seasonally-adjusted manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
(PMI) produced by the Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF) fell
Manufacturing Index deeper into negative territory from 41.0 in April to 39.2 in May. The result
62
marked the lowest reading on record and signaled a sharper contraction of
the manufacturing sector. Plummeting new orders and a marked decline in
56
production drove the indicator’s fall.
50
In contrast, the seasonally-adjusted manufacturing PMI produced by IHS

44 Markit bounced back to 38.3 in May from 35.0 in April, which had marked the
lowest print in over nine years of data collection. Despite the increase, the
38
IMEF Manufacturing PMI index pointed to a further marked deterioration of business conditions in the
IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI
32
U.S. Manufacturing Index manufacturing sector. May’s climb was driven by softer declines in production
and new orders, though they were still steep as factories suspended operations
Note: Manufacturing ISM Report On Business (PMI) for the U.S., seasonally-
amid Covid-19 containment measures. Moreover, due to weak new business
adjusted manufacturing index for Mexico and IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI. inflows and limited production capacity, manufacturers continued to cut their
Readings above 50 indicate an expansion/improvement of the manufacturing
sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction/deterioration. staff numbers in May.
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Mexican Institute of
Financial Executives (IMEF, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas) and
IHS Markit.
According to the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel, industrial production
will plunge 7.5% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last
month’s projection, and grow 2.3% in 2021.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation bounces back from over four-year low

in May
Consumer prices rose 0.38% in May over the last month, contrasting the
1.01% drop logged in April. The result was largely due to a strong rebound in
Inflation | Consumer Price Index transport prices and a pick-up in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages.
1.2 5.5
Inflation came in at 2.8% in May, above April’s 2.1% which had marked an
0.6 4.5 over four-year low. Thus, it rose further towards the midpoint of Banxico’s
target range of 2.0%–4.0%. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down slightly, with
0.0 3.5 annual average inflation coming in at 3.2% in May (April: 3.3%). Core inflation
% % ticked up to 3.6% from 3.5% in the previous month.
-0.6 2.5
Month-on-month (left scale) Panelists surveyed by FocusEconomics see inflation ending 2020 at 2.9%,
-1.2 1.5
which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees year-
end inflation at 3.3 %.
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI). On the monetary policy front, FocusEconomics panelists see Banxico’s target
rate at 4.38% by end-2020 and 4.39% by end-2021.

MONETARY SECTOR | Peso recoups some its steep coronavirus-

induced losses in June
Over the past month, the Mexican peso recovered some of the heavy losses
suffered in March when it plunged to an all-time low amid the collapse in
international oil prices and the fast-spreading coronavirus taking its toll.
Emerging market currencies in general have rallied recently in large part due
to investors shifting back to risky assets after March’s sell-off. On 12 June, the
peso ended at 22.23 per USD, marking a 9.8% appreciation from the same
day in May. That said, the currency was down 13.7% year-on-year and has
lost 14.8% of its value year-to-date.
Exchange Rate | MXN per USD A weakened U.S. dollar and improving global market sentiment have helped
26 the peso gain ground against the greenback in recent weeks. In particular,
fiscal stimulus enacted by governments and massive amounts of liquidity
24
injected by central banks globally to counter the financial and economic
22
fallout from the pandemic, coupled with the release of unexpectedly-positive
employment data in the U.S., have helped reignite investors’ appetite for risky
20 assets after the coronavirus-induced sell-off in March. In addition, with the
latest Fed policy-setting meeting on 10 June signaling that rates will remain
18
near zero for the foreseeable future and Mexico’s still-sizeable interest rate
16
differential, despite the numerous rate cuts by Banxico, have made the peso
Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20
more attractive. Lastly, recovering oil prices since late April and hopes for an
Note: Daily spot exchange rate of Mexican peso (MXN) against U.S. dollar (USD).
economic turnaround as more countries ease their virus-provoked lockdowns
Source: Refinitiv. further supported the MXN.
Looking ahead, the peso is expected to remain broadly stable by year-end

and thus unlikely to return to its pre-coronavirus trading level. The harsh
economic blow dealt by Covid-19; prospects for a relatively weak recovery
amid the bleak global backdrop and timid fiscal response by the government;
and the currency’s vulnerability to sudden shifts in market sentiment are all
seen weighing on the MXN going forward.
Our panel sees the MXN ending 2020 at 22.87 per USD and 2021 at 22.13
per USD.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports crumble at record pace in April on

Covid-19 hit
Exports collapsed 40.9% year-on-year in April as Covid-19 took its toll,
following March’s 1.6% slip and marking the steepest fall since data collection
began in the early 1990s. The plunge reflected plummeting oil exports amid
Merchandise Trade the oil price crash, and crumbling shipments of vehicles and auto parts as the
14 15
auto industry shut down for the entire month as part of Covid-19 containment
measures.
7 10
0 5
Similarly, imports nosedived 30.5% over the same month of 2019 in April,
% following March’s 6.7% decline and marking the sharpest drop since the height
-7 0 of the 2009 global financial crisis. The downturn reflected an across-the-board
contraction in the purchase of oil, consumer, intermediate and capital goods.
-14 -5
Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)
Exports (yoy, right scale)
-21
Imports (yoy, right scale)
-10
Meanwhile, the merchandise trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 3.1
Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20
billion in April, contrasting the USD 1.5 billion surplus logged in the same
month of 2019. As a result, the 12-month rolling trade balance declined to a
12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).
USD 6.3 billion surplus in April from a USD 10.9 billion surplus in March.
Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report project merchandise

exports to fall 15.8% in 2020 and merchandise imports to decline 16.2%,

pushing the trade balance to a USD 6.4 billion surplus. For 2021, our panel
sees merchandise exports rising 9.0% and merchandise imports increasing
10.1%, with a trade surplus of USD 2.8 billion.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Remittances fall in April as Covid-19 hammers

U.S. labor market
Remittances - U.S. Payrolls | variation in % Remittances totaled USD 2.9 billion in April (March: EUR 4.0 billion),
40 4
representing a 2.6% drop from the same month a year ago—the largest in
over four years—and contrasting the 35.8% surge logged in March as workers
30 0 rushed to send cash home ahead of deteriorating conditions in the U.S.
Indeed, the fall came alongside an unprecedented collapse in U.S. non-farm
20 -4
%
payrolls as the Covid-19 pandemic ravaged the economy and labor market in
%
10 -8
April.
0 -12 In the 12 months up to April, remittances totaled USD 37.4 billion, fractionally
Remittances (yoy, left scale)
U.S. non-farm payrolls (yoy, right scale) below the record-high USD 37.5 billion recorded in the 12 months up to March.
-10 -16
Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 April’s 12-month rolling total marked an 8.4% increase from a year earlier
(March: +9.2% year-on-year).
Note: Year-on-year variation of remittances from Mexican workers abroad and
U.S. non-farm payrolls.
Source: Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Analysts project remittances to reach USD 33.7 billion in 2020. For 2021, the
panel sees remittances at USD 35.6 billion.


Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
Population (million) 121 122 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 132
GDP (USD bn) 1,169 1,077 1,160 1,223 1,259 1,038 1,128 1,229 1,312 1,396
GDP (MXN bn) 18,572 20,129 21,934 23,525 24,238 23,250 25,243 27,211 29,092 30,992
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.3 2.6 2.1 2.2 -0.3 -7.5 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.1
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.0 3.1 1.8 2.0 -0.9 -7.6 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.9 2.6 0.7 3.0 -1.5 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.0 1.0 -1.6 0.9 -4.9 -14.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.4 3.6 4.2 5.9 1.1 -11.8 7.7 4.8 4.2 3.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.9 2.8 6.4 5.9 -1.1 -13.0 7.2 4.5 4.0 3.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.1 0.3 -0.3 0.5 -1.7 -7.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 5.0 5.3 -0.3 1.5 2.0 -5.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 3.25 5.75 7.25 8.25 7.25 4.38 4.39 4.68 4.86 5.04
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 3.42 5.84 7.51 8.41 7.70 4.81 4.89 5.05 5.14 5.22
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 17.18 20.73 19.65 19.65 18.93 22.87 22.13 22.15 22.19 22.23
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 15.88 18.69 18.91 19.23 19.25 22.40 22.37 22.14 22.17 22.21
External Sector
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -14.7 -13.1 -11.0 -13.6 5.4 6.4 2.8 -0.5 -3.6 -6.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -4.1 -1.7 9.5 10.1 2.2 -15.8 9.0 6.7 5.4 4.0
Remittances (USD bn) 24.8 27.0 30.3 33.7 36.1 33.7 35.6 37.2 38.9 40.6
International Reserves (USD bn) 177 177 173 175 181 178 179 181 184 188
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.4 -0.7 -1.4 -13.7 -9.1 -6.3 -3.5 8.0 4.8 3.2
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) -0.2 -0.6 -1.2 -11.7 4.4 3.3 1.3 -0.2 1.1 1.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.8 0.9 -1.4 -12.5 -9.1 -6.0 -2.7 8.3 4.5 3.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -2.0 -0.2 -0.9 -1.1 1.9 -3.0 -1.5 -0.3 -2.0 6.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -6.5 -5.2 -8.3 -25.9 -11.8 -10.7 -6.4 5.3 3.1 3.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -1.4 -2.0 -2.8 -15.6 -7.9 -5.0 -2.6 6.2 3.4 3.2
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.4 2.0 1.3 -13.8 -9.3 -5.3 -3.0 6.9 4.3 2.4
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 7.75 7.25 6.50 5.05 4.50 4.38 4.22 4.22 4.30 4.39
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 8.20 7.70 7.10 5.29 4.86 4.81 4.58 4.42 4.65 4.89
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 19.44 19.25 20.00 23.44 23.14 23.00 22.71 22.42 22.23 22.14
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.3 1.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 -1.5 -2.1 -0.2 -0.4 -2.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.8 3.2 -1.0 -1.8 -0.8 -3.8 -5.3 -0.5 -1.2 -5.6
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.0 3.2 3.7 2.4 3.6 2.4 4.2 3.1 0.3 -0.8
Economic Activity (IGAE, mom s.a. var. %) 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 -1.3 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -1.2 -1.5 -3.0 -2.0 -0.8 -1.6 -2.0 -4.9 -29.3 -
Unemployment (% of active population) 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.4 2.9 3.8 3.6 2.9 - -
Consumer Confidence Indicator 43.7 45.4 44.1 43.6 43.6 44.0 43.8 42.6 - -
IMEF Manufacturing Index (50-pt threshold) 47.4 48.2 46.6 46.6 46.6 48.9 46.9 43.8 41.0 39.2
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) -0.02 0.26 0.54 0.81 0.56 0.48 0.42 -0.05 -1.01 0.38
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -2.9 3.0 2.9 0.4 -1.7 -40.9 -
Remittances (ann. var. %) 16.4 13.0 3.6 -2.2 3.0 5.5 10.7 35.5 -2.6 -

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17-Q4 21 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
8 10
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021
Actinver -7.8 2.2
AGPV -7.0 2.6
5 American Chamber Mexico -8.2 -
4
Barclays Capital -6.5 1.8
0 BBVA Bancomer -7.0 2.9
0 CABI -6.5 2.5
-5
Casa de Bolsa Finamex -7.5 1.0
-4 Citibanamex -9.0 4.8
Mexico -10
Mexico Commerzbank -6.2 1.8
Latin America Latin America D.Econosignal -8.6 4.2
World World
-8 -15 DekaBank -7.0 2.2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 DuckerFrontier -9.5 5.2
EIU -9.2 2.9
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Euromonitor Int. -7.0 3.1
Fitch Ratings -7.4 3.2
4 6 Fitch Solutions -7.1 1.8
GBM Securities -7.0 1.8
0 4 HSBC -9.0 4.0
ING -7.5 0.7
INVEX -6.0 2.5
-4 2 Itaú Unibanco -8.5 4.3
JPMorgan -10.5 5.5
-8 Maximum 0 Kiel Institute -6.3 3.9
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus
Monex -9.2 1.8
Minimum
Minimum Moody's Analytics -7.5 1.3
-12 -2 NORD/LB -6.5 1.8
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Oxford Economics -5.2 3.6
Prognosis -7.5 2.5
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution S&P Global -6.7 2.9
Scotiabank -8.4 1.1
UBS -7.6 4.5
Ve Por Más -7.1 1.8
40%
Vector Casa de Bolsa -6.0 2.7
Summary
30% Minimum -10.5 0.7
Maximum -5.2 5.5
Median -7.4 2.8
20%
Consensus -7.5 2.9
History
10% 30 days ago -7.1 2.6
60 days ago -5.1 2.4
90 days ago 0.6 1.6
0%
<-13.0 -11.5 -10.0 -8.5 -7.0 -5.5 -4.0 -2.5 >-2.5 Additional Forecasts
OECD (June 2020) -8.6 2.0
CEPAL (May 2020) -6.5 -
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics
and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.


10
Actinver -7.9 2.5 -23.3 -2.7
5
Barclays Capital -6.2 1.2 -9.3 1.0
BBVA Bancomer -7.1 2.6 -19.7 -5.0
CABI -6.8 3.5 -15.0 0.0
0
Casa de Bolsa Finamex -5.1 1.0 -12.5 -2.5
Citibanamex -11.5 3.7 -19.7 3.5
-5
D.Econosignal -7.1 4.0 -17.4 3.8
DuckerFrontier -9.0 6.0 - - Mexico
EIU -9.3 3.0 -13.0 3.1 Latin America
-10
Euromonitor Int. -6.3 3.4 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fitch Ratings -7.7 3.8 -15.3 3.9
GBM Securities -7.9 2.4 -17.0 2.8 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Goldman Sachs -3.1 1.8 -8.5 2.1
HSBC -8.3 4.1 -17.0 4.5 4
Prognosis -6.0 3.5 -12.0 0.0
S&P Global -7.9 3.0 - - 0
Scotiabank -6.6 1.5 -11.7 -4.5
UBS -7.2 5.0 -19.9 13.0
Summary -4
Minimum -11.5 1.0 -23.3 -5.0
Maximum -3.1 6.0 -7.5 13.0 2020 2021
Median -7.1 3.2 -14.0 2.6
Consensus -7.0 3.2 -14.3 2.0 -8
History Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
30 days ago -6.7 2.9 -13.9 1.4
60 days ago -5.0 2.9 -9.0 2.3
90 days ago 1.2 1.9 -1.5 1.4
16
-8
Mexico
Latin America
-16
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-4
Notes and sources -8
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional -12
de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
2020 2021

10
variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
5
American Chamber Mexico - - 6.3 - - -
Barclays Capital - - 5.8 5.3 -3.8 -3.6
BBVA Bancomer - - 4.6 4.4 -3.6 -3.8
0
CABI - - - - -4.5 -3.8
Capital Economics - - 8.0 6.0 -4.2 -2.2
Casa de Bolsa Finamex - - - - -4.4 -4.2
-5
Citibanamex - - 6.3 6.2 -7.7 -3.8
D.Econosignal -7.0 2.5 5.7 5.1 - -
Mexico DekaBank - - - - -4.7 -4.2
Latin America DuckerFrontier -6.5 3.3 - - - -
-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 EIU -9.5 -1.4 3.8 3.7 -4.6 -3.9
Euromonitor Int. -7.3 1.9 4.2 5.0 -4.6 -3.9
Fitch Solutions - - 5.7 5.2 -4.4 -2.3
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts GBM Securities -7.0 2.4 5.8 5.0 -4.6 -3.9
Goldman Sachs - - 4.7 4.8 -6.0 -3.5
4
HSBC -12.0 4.5 - - -4.9 -2.6
INVEX -5.4 3.0 3.9 3.7 -3.0 -1.5
Itaú Unibanco - - 5.5 4.3 -4.1 -3.5
JPMorgan - - - - -6.0 -4.5
0
Monex - - 6.7 - - -
NORD/LB - - 5.5 4.7 -4.3 -3.6
-4 Prognosis -6.0 - 5.5 4.5 -4.7 -5.0
S&P Global - - 5.4 4.6 - -
2020 2021 Scotiabank -7.6 -0.6 6.1 6.3 -3.8 -4.0
Société Générale - - 5.4 6.1 -4.1 -2.9
-8 UBS -6.7 4.5 6.9 5.4 -4.9 -3.7
Ve Por Más - - 4.8 4.1 - -
Summary
Minimum -12.0 -1.4 3.8 3.7 -7.7 -6.7
Maximum -5.4 4.5 8.0 6.3 -3.0 -1.5
12 Median -7.1 2.5 5.5 5.0 -4.5 -3.8
Mexico Consensus -7.5 2.3 5.5 4.9 -4.6 -3.7
Latin America History
10
30 days ago -7.3 2.5 5.7 5.2 -4.6 -3.9
60 days ago -5.8 2.4 5.2 4.8 -4.2 -3.6
8 90 days ago 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.8 -2.4 -2.5
2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
3
Mexico
Latin America
-3 Notes and sources
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de
-6
Estadística y Geografía) and the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). See below for details. Forecasts based on
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INEGI.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEGI.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Banxico.

Consumer Prices 14 | Inflation | 2000-2024 | in %

(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop) Mexico
Latin America
Actinver 3.5 3.4 - - 8
AGPV 2.9 3.3 - -
American Chamber Mexico 3.0 - - -
6
BBVA Bancomer 2.9 3.4 3.1 3.2
CABI 2.0 2.5 - -
3.1 3.7 3.0 3.5 4
Casa de Bolsa Finamex
Citibanamex 3.0 3.4 3.1 3.2
Commerzbank - - 2.6 2.9
D.Econosignal 2.9 3.4 - - 2
DuckerFrontier - - 2.9 3.7 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 2.6 4.2 2.6 3.2
Fitch Ratings 3.0 3.0 - - 15 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in %
10
GBM Securities 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.3
Mexico
Latin America
HSBC 2.7 3.6 - -
ING 2.3 2.7 - - 8
INVEX 3.0 4.0 3.2 3.6
JPMorgan 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 6
Monex 3.2 3.4 3.1 - 4
NORD/LB - - 3.1 3.3
2
Prognosis 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
S&P Global 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.4
Scotiabank 3.6 3.9 3.3 4.0
UBS 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.3 16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
Ve Por Más 3.2 3.5 3.0 3.5 6
Vector Casa de Bolsa 3.0 3.1 - -
Summary
Minimum 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.4
Maximum 3.6 4.2 3.5 4.0 4
Median 3.0 3.4 3.0 3.4
Consensus 2.9 3.3 3.0 3.3
History
30 days ago 2.9 3.3 3.0 3.3
60 days ago 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 2
90 days ago 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 Maximum
Additional Forecasts Consensus
Minimum
World Bank (Apr. 2020) - - 4.0 4.0
IMF (Apr. 2020) 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.8 0
OECD (June 2020) - - 2.6 2.4 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

5
Notes and sources

3
Maximum
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Institute of
Consensus
Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts are Minimum
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 2
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

18 | Interest Rate | 2000-2024 | in % 19 | Interest Rate | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Mexico Mexico Actinver 4.75 4.50
Latin America
Latin America AGPV 4.00 4.50
15 American Chamber Mexico 5.00 -
BBVA Bancomer 3.00 3.00
10 CABI 4.00 4.00
7 Casa de Bolsa Finamex 4.50 4.50
5 Citibanamex 4.50 4.50
D.Econosignal 4.50 4.50
DekaBank 3.50 -
0 3 Fitch Solutions 4.50 5.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 GBM Securities 4.75 4.25
Goldman Sachs 4.50 4.00
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst HSBC 5.00 5.00
ING 4.00 4.00
10 10
INVEX 4.50 4.50
JPMorgan 3.00 3.00
8 8
Monex 4.50 4.50
NORD/LB 5.00 -
6 6
Prognosis 4.50 4.00
S&P Global 5.00 5.00
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus UBS 4.25 4.25
Minimum
Minimum Ve Por Más 5.00 5.00
2 2 Summary
Minimum 3.00 3.00
Maximum 5.00 5.00
22 | Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution Median 4.50 4.50
Consensus 4.38 4.39
50% History
30 days ago 4.43 4.45
40%
60 days ago 5.03 4.84
90 days ago 6.18 5.88
30%
20%
10%
0%
<1.75 2.50 3.25 4.00 4.75 5.50 6.25 7.00 >7.00
Notes and sources
are from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
Actinver 23.20 23.90
AGPV 23.00 22.50
20 23 American Chamber Mexico 23.30 -
Barclays Capital 26.25 25.50
BBVA Bancomer 20.84 20.18
15 21 CABI 23.00 23.50
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 22.50 22.50
10 19 Citibanamex 23.89 23.10
Commerzbank 22.50 -
D.Econosignal 22.30 21.00
5 17 DekaBank 23.50 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 EIU 22.56 21.47
25 | MXN per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | MXN per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst Fitch Solutions 23.00 22.15
GBM Securities 22.50 22.35
28 28
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus HSBC 23.00 23.00
Minimum Minimum ING 22.50 22.50
25 25
INVEX 22.65 22.15
JPMorgan 23.00 23.50
22 22
Julius Baer 24.20 21.90
Monex 22.10 21.20
19 19 NORD/LB 24.42 -
Prognosis 22.50 22.00
16 16 S&P Global 22.00 21.50
27 | MXN per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution UBS 23.50 22.00
Ve Por Más 22.60 22.70
60% Summary
Minimum 20.84 19.28
Maximum 26.25 25.50
Median 23.00 22.12
40% Consensus 22.87 22.13
History
30 days ago 23.02 22.37
60 days ago 22.49 21.66
20% 90 days ago 19.81 20.11
0%
<19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.00 25.00 26.00 >27.00
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn Mexico
AGPV - - 7.0 4.0
Barclays Capital 0.5 1.0 - - 0
BBVA Bancomer -0.4 -0.2 27.4 -0.7
CABI - - -40.3 -20.1
Citibanamex 1.2 0.2 22.0 13.9 -2
DekaBank -2.3 -1.9 - -
EIU -2.7 -2.6 -13.5 -16.9
Euromonitor Int. -0.6 -1.0 7.4 3.2
Fitch Solutions -1.3 -1.0 -0.9 -0.5 -4
GBM Securities -0.6 -1.0 10.0 11.1 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Goldman Sachs 0.4 -0.2 15.7 10.6
HSBC -0.7 -1.1 -1.2 -
INVEX 0.4 -0.7 6.6 -6.2 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
JPMorgan -1.0 -1.0 - - -0.5
Moody's Analytics 0.4 -1.7 - -
Oxford Economics -0.3 0.3 13.7 13.7 2020 2021
Prognosis -0.8 -1.0 2.5 -4.1
Scotiabank -1.6 -1.7 7.9 6.0 -1.0
Société Générale -1.4 -1.0 - -
UBS 0.2 -0.5 31.5 25.4
Summary
Minimum -2.7 -2.6 -40.3 -20.1 -1.5
Maximum 1.2 1.0 31.5 25.4
Median -0.6 -1.0 7.4 3.6
Consensus -0.6 -0.8 6.4 2.8
History -2.0
30 days ago -0.6 -0.8 7.2 3.5 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
60 days ago -0.6 -0.9 9.1 2.8
90 days ago -0.9 -1.2 -2.6 -4.6
600
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
400
200
-200
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
12
2020 2021
Notes and sources

-12
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
29 Current account balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. -24


Exports Imports 40
USD bn USD bn
AGPV 392 434 385 430 20
BBVA Bancomer 361 391 333 392
CABI 393 428 433 448
Citibanamex 344 447 322 433 0
EIU 366 375 379 392
Euromonitor Int. 406 446 398 443
Fitch Solutions 407 422 408 422 -20
GBM Securities 390 404 380 393
Mexico
Goldman Sachs 409 432 394 421 Latin America
HSBC 443 - 444 - -40
INVEX 386 395 380 402 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Oxford Economics 387 398 374 385
Prognosis 364 470 362 474
Scotiabank 391 433 383 427 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
UBS 377 443 345 417
Summary 570
Minimum 344 375 322 385
Maximum 443 470 444 474
Median 390 430 380 422 520
Consensus 388 423 381 420
History
30 days ago 392 434 385 430 470
60 days ago 402 441 393 439
90 days ago 478 502 480 507
420
2020 2021
370
40
20
-20
Mexico
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
570
520
470
Notes and sources
2020 2021


USD bn USD bn
AGPV 175 176 - - 9
Barclays Capital 187 197 460 457
Citibanamex 185 186 441 462
EIU 140 144 449 457 6
Euromonitor Int. 190 197 - -
Fitch Solutions 186 192 - -
GBM Securities 175 176 - - 3
Goldman Sachs 176 176 - -
Mexico
HSBC 187 - - -
Latin America
INVEX 185 187 - - 0
Itaú Unibanco 186 187 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
JPMorgan 179 179 - -
Moody's Analytics 151 137 - -
Oxford Economics 181 200 - - 38 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Scotiabank 183 182 - -
UBS 176 173 458 458 190
Summary
Minimum 140 137 441 457
Maximum 190 200 460 462 185
Median 182 182 454 458
Consensus 178 179 452 459
History 180
30 days ago 175 176 458 462
60 days ago 174 175 467 477
90 days ago 184 188 470 475 175
2020 2021
170
39 | External Debt | USD bn
2500
Mexico
Latin America
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
50
Mexico
Latin America
40
30
Notes and sources
39 External debt including federal government bonds held by non-residents, in USD. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
40 External debt as % of GDP.

Fact Sheet
General Data Mexico in the Region

Official name: United Mexican States Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Mexico City (21.8m)
Other cities: Guadalajara (5.2m)
Monterrey (4.8m)
Area (km2): 1,964,375 Mexico
Other Other
20.9% Mexico
Population (million, 2019 est.): 126 22.9% 18.6%
24.8%
5.5%
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 76.7 Peru
5.4% Colombia
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 4.6 6.4%
Argentina
Language: Spanish and Indigenous 7.5%
Argentina
Measures: Metric system Colombia
Brazil
34.9%
8.6%
8.4% Brazil
Time: GMT-6 to GMT-8 36.2%
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 95.2 2010-12 2013-15 2016-18 2010-12 2013-15 2016-18
100 120
80 90
Energy (2017)
Manufacturing
60
Investment

Government
Consumption
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,020 20 0 Private
Services
Airports: 1,714
Chief Ports: Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas
Other
Other

11.1%

President: A. M. López Obrador EU-27
5.6%
China
Last elections: 1 July 2018
17.6%
U.S.A.
Next elections: 2024 46.4%
Exports Imports
Central Bank Governor: Alejandro Díaz de León
Other Asia
ex-Japan
U.S.A. 14.1%
80.3%

EU-27


Moody’s: Baa1 Negative
Primary products | share in %
S&P Global Ratings: BBB Negative
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Stable
Food Other Food Other

Mineral 5.9%
Strengths Weaknesses Mineral 7.8% 4.4%
Fuels
7.0%
Fuels

5.7% 8.4%

• Commitment to sound fiscal • Dependence on the U.S.
policy economy
• Large domestic market • Relatively weak financial sector Exports Imports
• Tariff-free access to U.S. market
• Drug-related violence and
instability
Manufact. Manufact.
Products Products
82.1% 78.7%

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru June 2020
Peru
Peru
• The economy contracted in the first quarter at the fastest rate in 19 years.
Containment measures enacted in March froze domestic activity, while
plunging demand for key commodities caused exports to fall at a near
three-decade high pace in Q1. Turning to the second quarter, the backdrop
appears even bleaker. In April, merchandise exports more than halved,
while the unemployment rate jumped to a nine-year high. Moreover,
infection rates remain stubbornly high through mid-June—in part due to a
large informal workforce—despite being the first Latin American country
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
to impose lockdown conditions. As such, despite a restarting of certain
Population (million): 31.8 32.8 33.8 economic activities, the health crisis continues to inflict severe damage
GDP (USD bn): 211 223 264
at the tail end of Q2. In other news, the IMF approved a USD 11.0 billion
GDP growth (%): 3.5 0.0 3.8 credit agreement on 28 May to help the government manage the impact
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.5 -5.1 -2.8 of the ongoing pandemic on vulnerable households and businesses.
Inflation (%): 2.6 1.9 2.3
Current Account (% of GDP): -1.9 -1.3 -1.1 • Peru’s outlook darkened further this month, as the prolonged nature
of the viral outbreak ensures domestic demand will contract deeply
Stephen Vogado this year. Uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of lifting containment
Economist measures amid an elevated number of cases is a key risk, while subdued
foreign demand for key commodity exports clouds the external sector’s
outlook. GDP is now seen contracting 8.3% in 2020, which is down 3.3
percentage points from last month’s forecast. Next year, the economy
should rebound strongly, growing 6.8%.
20 9.0
• Inflation ticked up slightly to 1.8% in May from 1.7% in April, moving closer
10 4.5 to the midpoint of the Central Bank’s 1.0–4.0% target range. However,
inflation should ease this year as subdued domestic activity, a loose
0 0.0
labor market and low energy prices suppress upward price pressures.
FocusEconomics panelists see inflation ending 2020 at 1.2%, which is
-10 -4.5
Peru down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2021 at 2.1%.
Latin America
2020 2021
World
-20 -9.0
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr • On 11 June, the Central Bank of Peru held monetary policy rates steady
at 0.25% for the second meeting in a row. The hold came amid a mild
uptick in inflation in May and reflected the Bank’s desire to monitor the
full impact of April’s 100-basis-point cut. However, the Bank maintained
its expansionary tone, reiterating its readiness to ease monetary policy
if necessary. The FocusEconomics panel sees the monetary policy rate
10.0 2.6
ending 2020 at 0.25% and 2021 at 0.95%.
Peru
Latin America
7.5
2.3
• The sol weakened slightly in recent weeks as the impact of looser monetary
2.0 policy outweighed recovering interest in emerging-market currencies. On
5.0 12 June, the PEN ended the day at 3.47 per USD, depreciating 0.9%
1.7
from the same day in May, with the currency expected to remain broadly
2.5
1.4 stable through to the end of the year. FocusEconomics analysts see the
2020 2021 PEN ending 2020 at 3.42 per USD and 2021 at 3.40 per USD.
0.0 1.1

Gross Domestic Product | variation in % REAL SECTOR | GDP falls at sharpest rate in 19 years in Q1
18
Economic activity shrank 3.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of the year, the
fastest contraction since Q1 2001, after expanding 1.8% in Q4 2019.
9
Hampered by Covid-19 fallout, the downturn was spearheaded by a severe
%
contraction in the external sector, which subtracted 2.2 percentage points from
0
the overall outturn (Q4: 0.0% year-on-year). Exports plummeted at the fastest
rate in nearly three decades (Q1 2020: -13.6% yoy; Q4 2019: +1.3% yoy),
-9
dragged lower by slack international demand and constrained output of key
commodities amid the coronavirus-related lockdown measures. Meanwhile,
-18
Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021
imports fell 6.4% in the quarter (Q4 2019: +1.7% yoy), reflecting weakening
domestic demand.
year variation %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
Domestically, notable contractions in private spending and investment caused
domestic demand to sink 1.2% (Q4 2019: +1.9% yoy). Private consumption
fell 1.7% in the first quarter (Q4 2019: +3.0% yoy), the first such contraction
since Q4 2001, as lockdown measures paralyzed economic activity, impacted
the labor market and hammered consumer confidence. Furthermore, fixed
investment dropped at the sharpest rate in 19 years (Q1 2020: -12.9% yoy; Q4
2019: -0.9% yoy) as the pandemic heightened uncertainty across all sectors
of the economy. In contrast, government spending rose sharply (Q1 2020:
+6.5%; Q4 2019: +2.7%); Peru’s fiscal response, which amounts to around
12% of GDP, is one of the most comprehensive in the region.
The economic downturn is expected to worsen in the second quarter of this

year, as the full effects of lockdown measures take grip. Domestic demand is
set to shrink throughout 2020, before rebounding in the first quarter of 2021.
Robust external reserves and low debt levels should allow for continued fiscal
support, while the pace of recovery in external demand for key commodities
presents a key risk to the outlook.
Assessing Peru’s economic outlook, the research team at Creditcorp Capital

noted:
“The rhythm of recovery in the upcoming months will depend on: (i) the
number of additional lockdown days this year (70, as of today), (ii) the installed
capacity utilization and the convergence towards a “new normality”, (iii) the
effectiveness of economic measures (~20% of GDP, counting both public and
private resources), (iv) the recovery of global economic activity, and (v) the
preservation of Peru’s sound macroeconomic fundamentals that have been
built in the past 30 years.”
Business Confidence Index Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect GDP to contract
65 8.3% in 2020, which is down 3.3 percentage points from last month’s
projection. For 2021, the panel expects the economy to grow 6.8%.
50
OUTLOOK | Business sentiment ticks up in May, remains deeply

pessimistic
35
Business confidence edged up in May to 14.0, pulling away from April’s
record low of 9.1 points as firms reacted to the initiation of easing of lockdown
20
measures in the month. However, the indicator still came in well below the
50-point threshold that separates pessimism from optimism.
5
Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20
May’s uptick reflected a broad-based improvement in firm’s views.
Note: Business Confidence Index (Indice de Confianza Empresarial).Values
above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in business climate while values Expectations on the general economic situation in the next 3 and 12 months
below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).
were less pessimistic, as were the views on the conditions of their sector

in the same time periods. Furthermore, firms’ outlook on their company’s

financial situation and on demand for their company’s products also ticked up
marginally. However, most subindices stayed significantly below their values
from March, reflecting the severity of the situation looking ahead.
Panelists expect fixed investment to nosedive 20.0% in 2020, which is down

8.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, panel participants
see fixed investment rebounding and growing 9.9%.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation ticks up in May

1.4 3 Consumer prices in Metropolitan Lima increased 0.20% from the previous
month in May, accelerating from April’s 0.10% rise. May’s uptick was primarily
driven by increasing healthcare, and food and drink prices, partially offset by
0.7 2 falling rental, fuel and electricity costs.
% %
Inflation came in at 1.8% in May, up from April’s 1.7%, and thus remaining
0.0 1 below the midpoint of the Central Bank’s 1.0–3.0% target band for the ninth
month running. Meanwhile, annual average inflation fell to 1.9% in May (April:
Year-on-year (right scale) 2.0%) and core inflation rose to 1.9% from April’s 1.8%.
-0.7 0
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project inflation

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index in %.
Source: Peru National Statistical Institute (INEI). to end 2020 at 1.2%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s
projection. For 2021, the panel expects inflation to end the year at 2.1%.
Monetary Policy Rate | in % MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank maintains policy rate at record low
5
in June
On 11 June, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) decided to keep the policy
4 interest rate unchanged at 0.25% for the second meeting in a row, as widely
expected by market analysts. This comes after cutting the rate by a combined
3
200 basis points over March–April, which pushed the key rate to its current
%
2
record low level.
1 Developments due the ongoing pandemic have darkened Peru’s outlook

significantly, reflected in the Bank’s dovish tone and its continued commitment
0
Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 to maintain a “strong expansionary monetary stance”. Falling inflation
expectations, severely hampered domestic economic activity and heightened
Note: Central Bank Reference Rate in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP). external sector risks amid volatile foreign demand for Peruvian products
all supported the Bank’s decision. The decision came after a mild uptick in
inflation in May, reflecting the Bank’s inclination towards a continued pause
in cutting rates.
In its communiqué, the Bank highlighted the liquidity injections undertaken in

lieu of further rate cuts, totaling PEN 44 billion as of 10 June and including
various repurchase agreements. This included PEN 21 billion—of a total
PEN 30 billion—of funds placed into the private sector through the Reactive
Peru program, which has helped bring down interest rates over the past few
months.
Looking ahead, the BCRP kept its forward guidance unchanged this month,
leaving open the possibility of further easing and stating it “stands ready to
extend monetary stimulus in different ways”. Moreover, inflation is expected
to fall due to depressed demand, keeping space open for accommodative
action.
Commenting on the Bank’s decision, Paulo Mateus, an economist at Goldman

Sachs, noted:

“Given the clear guidance of stable policy rate for an extended period, we
believe the rate has reached its effective lower bound. We expect the MPC to
keep the rate at 0.25% through the remainder of 2020, and to start normalizing
monetary policy only when there are clear signs of sustainable recovery in
economic activity.”
This is a viewpoint shared by FocusEconomics LatinFocus panelists, the vast

majority of whom see no further rate cuts before the end of the year.
The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 9 July.
Our panelists see the monetary policy rate at 0.25% at the end of 2020. For
2021, the panel projects a rate of 0.95% at the end of the year.
Merchandise Trade EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports fall at record pace pushing trade deficit to
9 27 over six-year high in April
Trade Balance - 12m av. (USD bn, left scale)
Exports (yoy, right scale)
Imports (yoy, right scale)
Merchandise exports nosedived 56.4% over the same month last year in April
8 18
(March: -29.6% year-on-year), marking the worst reading on record as heavy
restrictions on movement to fight the Covid-19 pandemic impaired domestic
%
7 9
production amid weakened external demand for goods.
Similarly, imports plummeted 33.4% on an annual basis, the worst reading

6 0
since September 2009, reflecting slack domestic demand and falling
production (March: -21.0% yoy).
5 -9
As a result, the trade balance deteriorated notably, recording a USD 664

12-month sum of exports and imports in %. million deficit in April (March: 62.0 million surplus), the largest deficit since
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).
January 2014 and the first since October 2018.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see merchandise

exports falling 15.9% in 2020 and the trade balance recording a surplus of
USD 6.0 billion. For 2021, the panel sees overseas sales expanding 13.9%
and forecasts a trade surplus of USD 6.9 billion.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 191 195 214 225 231 209 228 247 264 281
GDP (PEN bn) 609 656 698 740 770 717 779 838 891 945
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 9.9 -0.4 0.6 0.1 2.1 7.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.7 9.1 7.4 2.4 0.8 -13.0 8.4 4.8 4.6 4.4
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.2 -2.3 3.9 3.2 1.2 -13.9 9.3 5.1 4.7 4.3
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) -0.9 -0.2 0.2 6.2 -1.7 -16.2 8.6 5.7 4.5 3.3
Commerce (ann. var. %) 3.1 2.8 1.6 2.6 3.0 -14.2 8.0 5.0 3.5 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 2.0 11.5 13.0 8.9 9.1 - - - - -
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 4.1 3.7 2.3 2.6 2.2 - - - - -
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.2 - - - - -
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.75 4.25 3.25 2.75 2.25 0.25 0.95 1.91 2.63 3.35
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.41 3.36 3.24 3.37 3.31 3.42 3.40 3.38 3.37 3.35
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 3.18 3.37 3.26 3.29 3.34 3.44 3.41 3.39 3.37 3.36
External Sector
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.9 2.0 6.7 7.2 6.6 6.0 6.9 7.2 7.3 7.1
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -12.9 7.8 22.4 8.1 -2.9 -15.9 13.9 10.0 8.1 6.2
External Debt (USD bn) 73.1 74.6 76.5 77.8 80.1 83.6 90.5 105.4 119.2 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.2 1.8 -3.4 -17.4 -8.2 -4.5 0.3 16.8 7.3 5.4
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.9 1.9 -1.2 -21.9 -11.3 -6.4 -2.1 19.0 8.2 5.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.3 3.0 -1.7 -12.7 -6.8 -4.4 0.0 13.1 7.7 4.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 7.0 2.7 6.5 8.4 7.1 4.3 2.7 -0.6 -1.8 -0.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.6 -0.9 -12.9 -22.9 -18.7 -15.6 -0.2 15.4 12.4 12.3
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) 4.0 -2.3 -10.0 -38.9 -25.3 -18.2 - - - -
Commerce (ann. var. %) 3.3 3.6 -6.2 -27.6 -12.0 -8.9 -3.7 21.1 8.7 3.5
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 2.50 2.25 1.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.43 0.56 0.82 0.95
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 3.34 3.36 3.40 3.45 3.46 3.43 3.42 3.41 3.41 3.41
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.7 0.0 -2.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.1 - - - -
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.0 0.0 -1.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 - - - -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.6 2.3 0.8 1.7 1.4 2.3 - - - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 12.1 12.7 10.0 9.5 10.0 11.4 - - - -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 10.5 10.4 9.2 7.8 8.6 9.1 - - - -
Economic Activity (IMAE, ann. var. %) 3.6 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.1 3.0 3.8 -16.3 - -
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 45.2 46.8 47.0 49.7 50.8 52.9 48.2 21.8 9.1 14.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -3.1 2.4 3.7 -4.8 6.6 -2.9 -0.4 -29.6 -56.4 -

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17 - Q4 21 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
12 20
Peru Individual Forecasts 2020 2021
Latin America AGPV -5.0 5.6
World Barclays Capital -6.6 9.5
6 10 BBVA Banco Continental -15.0 6.5
BCP/Credicorp Capital -11.0 6.5
CABI -3.3 3.5
0 0 Capital Economics -8.5 11.0
DekaBank -3.6 5.7
-6 -10 DuckerFrontier -8.9 6.8
Peru EIU -9.2 8.0
Latin America Euromonitor Int. -4.3 4.7
World Fitch Solutions -4.3 3.1
-12 -20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Goldman Sachs -8.0 6.4
HSBC -4.0 3.0
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts IEDEP - CCL -12.9 9.5
IPE -14.8 15.6
5 16
Maximum
Consensus JPMorgan -12.7 7.9
0
Minimum Julius Baer -4.0 5.0
12 Kiel Institute -5.8 5.2
Macroconsult -11.8 8.9
-5 Oxford Economics -8.8 11.9
8 Pezco Economics -7.5 5.2
-10 Rimac Seguros -16.5 8.7
S&P Global -3.1 5.5
4 Scotiabank -9.0 7.0
-15 Maximum Thorne & Associates -17.0 6.5
Consensus
UBS -5.7 4.7
Minimum
-20 0 Summary
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Minimum -17.0 3.0
Maximum -3.1 15.6
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution Median -7.8 6.5
Consensus -8.3 6.8
40% History
30 days ago -5.0 5.6
60 days ago -2.4 4.7
30% 90 days ago 2.8 3.4
20% CAF (May 2020) -8.4 7.1
IMF (May 2020) -6.5 5.8
10%
0%
<-24.0 -20.0 -16.0 -12.0 -8.0 -4.0 0.0 4.0 >4.0
Notes and sources
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America ergional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco
Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.


12
BBVA Banco Continental -6.3 4.5 -26.0 8.2
6
BCP/Credicorp Capital -7.7 5.5 -23.7 7.8
EIU -7.1 6.0 -27.5 20.0 0
Euromonitor Int. -2.4 5.4 - -

Goldman Sachs -5.6 8.0 -9.2 6.5 -6
HSBC -5.6 1.6 - - Peru
IEDEP - CCL -16.3 12.8 -16.3 12.8 Latin America
Macroconsult -5.4 4.5 -31.1 16.6 -12
Oxford Economics -7.4 10.5 -15.1 16.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Pezco Economics - - -8.7 7.1

Rimac Seguros -13.0 9.5 -47.2 11.0
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
S&P Global -5.5 5.8 - -
Scotiabank -2.8 2.6 -24.1 12.4 8
Thorne & Associates -15.2 8.2 -22.2 4.2
UBS -6.0 4.0 -10.2 6.0
Summary
4
Minimum -16.3 1.6 -47.2 4.2
Maximum -2.4 12.8 -8.5 20.0
Median -6.0 5.8 -19.3 8.0
0
Consensus -7.5 6.2 -20.0 9.9
History
30 days ago -4.1 5.2 -11.4 6.7
60 days ago -2.0 4.9 -5.1 5.1 -4
90 days ago 3.0 3.3 2.3 3.3

2020 2021
-8
26
Peru
Latin America
13
-13
-26
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
11
Notes and sources

-11
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 2020 2021
7 Private consumption, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. -22
9 Gross fixed investment, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

10 | Industry | variation in % Manufacturing, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance

Manufacturing Unemployment Fiscal Balance
12
variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
6 BBVA Banco Continental -21.2 4.5 - - -8.0 -5.6
BCP/Credicorp Capital -9.5 5.5 10.0 7.0 -7.0 -
CABI - - - - -8.5 -4.5
0
Capital Economics - - - - -9.0 -4.5
-6 DekaBank - - - - -12.7 -6.2
EIU -14.5 12.5 9.5 6.7 -13.2 -6.3
Euromonitor Int. - - - - -8.0 -4.3
-12
Peru Fitch Solutions - - 10.0 9.1 -5.4 -4.8
Latin America Goldman Sachs - - - - -9.4 -3.0
-18 HSBC - - - - -5.4 -3.9
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 IEDEP - CCL -26.5 - - - -10.5 -5.2
Itaú Unibanco - - 8.5 7.5 -9.0 -2.5
JPMorgan - - - - -11.0 -6.0
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
Macroconsult -19.2 14.3 - - -7.4 -
9
Oxford Economics - - - - -9.5 -3.0
Pezco Economics - - - - -8.6 -6.4
Rimac Seguros -20.0 - - - -10.0 -
S&P Global - - 7.8 7.5 - -
Scotiabank -14.0 8.6 12.0 10.0 -9.0 -5.0
0
Thorne & Associates - - 11.5 8.0 -14.0 -6.0
UBS -5.0 6.0 10.5 8.5 -6.2 -4.6
Summary
Minimum -26.5 4.5 7.8 6.7 -14.0 -6.4
-9 Maximum -5.0 14.3 12.0 10.0 -5.4 -2.5
Median -16.9 7.3 10.0 8.0 -9.0 -4.7
Consensus -16.2 8.6 10.0 8.1 -9.0 -4.8
2020 2021 History
-18 30 days ago -11.3 6.4 9.1 7.7 -8.1 -4.2
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 60 days ago -7.4 6.0 8.2 7.2 -6.5 -3.4
90 days ago 1.3 3.1 6.6 6.5 -2.0 -1.8
11
Peru
Latin America
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

5
Notes and sources
-5 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela.
All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática del Perú)
and the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Peru Consensus Forecast.
Latin America 10 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: INEI.
-10 11 Manufacturing, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment in metropolitan Lima and Callao, % of active population. Source: INEI.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCRP.

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in % 14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2024 | in %

12
Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
8
AGPV 1.4 2.1 - -
BBVA Banco Continental 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.4
BCP/Credicorp Capital 0.0 2.5 0.5 2.7 4
CABI 1.0 1.5 - -
DekaBank - - 1.5 2.3 0
DuckerFrontier - - 1.6 2.0 Peru
EIU 1.7 2.7 1.7 2.3
Latin America
-4
Fitch Solutions 1.7 2.3 1.6 2.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
HSBC 1.2 2.4 1.5 1.6 15 | Inflation | Q1 17 - Q4 21 | in %
IEDEP - CCL 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.2
10.0
IPE 1.0 2.1 - - Peru
Itaú Unibanco 1.2 2.1 - - Latin America
JPMorgan 1.4 2.2 1.3 -
Julius Baer - - 1.5 2.0 7.5
Macroconsult 0.2 2.0 - -
Oxford Economics 1.5 2.0 1.7 2.0 5.0
Rimac Seguros 0.5 - - -
S&P Global 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.5
Scotiabank 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.3
Thorne & Associates 1.0 2.5 1.3 2.0
UBS 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 0.0
Summary Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
Minimum 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.9
Maximum 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.7 16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
Median 1.2 2.1 1.6 2.0 4
Consensus 1.2 2.1 1.6 1.9
History
30 days ago 1.4 2.1 1.6 2.1 3
60 days ago 1.5 2.1 1.7 2.1
90 days ago 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.3
2
CAF (May 2020) 1.1 2.0 1.3 1.5
IMF (May 2020) 1.4 2.0 1.6 1.7 1
0 Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
-1

4
Notes and sources 1

Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP,
0
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 eop inflation forecasts during the last 18 months.
17 Inflation, evolution of 2021 eop inflation forecasts during the last 18 months.

16 12.5 Individual Forecasts 2020 2021
Peru AGPV 0.25 0.50
Latin America
10.0
BBVA Banco Continental 0.25 0.25
12 BCP/Credicorp Capital 0.25 0.75
7.5 Citigroup Global Mkts 0.25 0.75
8 Fitch Solutions 0.25 0.75
5.0 Goldman Sachs 0.25 2.50
HSBC 0.25 1.50
4 IEDEP - CCL 0.25 0.25
2.5
Peru
JPMorgan 0.25 -
Latin America
0 0.0 Oxford Economics 0.25 0.25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Pezco Economics 0.25 2.00
Rimac Seguros 0.25 -
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst S&P Global 0.25 1.50
5 5
Thorne & Associates 0.25 1.50
UBS 0.25 1.25
4 4 Summary
Minimum 0.25 0.25
Maximum 0.25 2.50
3 3
Median 0.25 0.75
Consensus 0.25 0.95
2 2 History
30 days ago 0.25 1.00
1
Maximum
1
Maximum 60 days ago 0.67 1.50
Consensus Consensus 90 days ago 2.06 2.52
Minimum Minimum
0 0
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
<-0.75 -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 >1.00
Notes and sources
are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on
18 Interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD Exchange Rate | PEN per USD
3.6 3.50 Individual Forecasts 2020 2021
AGPV 3.50 3.40
Barclays Capital 3.50 3.61
BBVA Banco Continental 3.38 3.33
3.2 3.40 BCP/Credicorp Capital 3.45 3.40
EIU 3.42 3.34
2.8 3.30 Fitch Solutions 3.45 3.49
HSBC 3.45 3.45
IEDEP - CCL 3.44 3.50
2.4 3.20 Itaú Unibanco 3.40 3.40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 JPMorgan 3.50 -
Macroconsult 3.20 -
25 | PEN per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | PEN per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst Oxford Economics 3.42 3.42
4.0 4.0
Maximum
Rimac Seguros 3.40 -
Maximum
Consensus Consensus S&P Global 3.45 3.40
Minimum Minimum Scotiabank 3.45 3.40
Thorne & Associates 3.30 3.40
3.6 3.6
UBS 3.45 3.40
Summary
Minimum 3.20 3.20
Maximum 3.50 3.61
3.2 3.2 Median 3.44 3.40
Consensus 3.42 3.40
History
30 days ago 3.46 3.42
2.8 2.8 60 days ago 3.46 3.43
90 days ago 3.39 3.40
27 | PEN per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution
60%
45%
30%
15%
0%
<3.10 3.20 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.60 3.70 3.80 >3.90
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn Peru
AGPV - - 6.0 6.0 3
BBVA Banco Continental -2.0 -2.2 5.0 5.2
BCP/Credicorp Capital -2.2 - 3.0 -
0
DekaBank -2.6 -1.9 - -
EIU -2.2 -1.8 3.7 6.2
-3
Euromonitor Int. -1.5 -1.6 5.4 6.1
Fitch Solutions -1.9 -1.7 5.2 5.7
HSBC -1.4 -0.9 5.1 8.0 -6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Itaú Unibanco -1.3 -1.5 - -
JPMorgan -0.4 -1.4 7.7 6.4
Macroconsult 1.6 0.0 7.4 4.6
Oxford Economics -1.8 -1.9 6.5 6.8 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Rimac Seguros -2.2 - - -
-1.0
Scotiabank -1.1 -1.3 6.2 7.7
2020 2021
UBS 0.0 -0.6 7.1 8.4
Summary
Minimum -2.6 -2.2 3.0 4.6
-1.4
Maximum 1.7 0.3 10.5 9.2
Median -1.4 -1.5 5.7 6.4
Consensus -1.1 -1.3 6.0 6.9
History
30 days ago -1.5 -1.7 5.7 6.6 -1.8
60 days ago -1.8 -1.7 5.2 6.5
90 days ago -1.8 -1.7 6.0 6.3
-2.2
75
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
50
25
-25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
8
2020 2021
Notes and sources

6
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
28 Current account balance as % of GDP.


Exports Imports 60
USD bn USD bn Peru
AGPV 41.0 47.0 35.0 41.0
BBVA Banco Continental 40.1 44.3 35.0 39.1 30
BCP/Credicorp Capital 37.0 - 34.0 -
EIU 38.8 45.9 35.1 39.6
Euromonitor Int. 40.8 46.3 35.4 40.2
0
Goldman Sachs 41.7 45.9 31.2 36.7
HSBC 41.8 44.5 36.7 36.6
JPMorgan 42.6 45.2 34.9 38.8
Macroconsult 38.2 40.9 30.8 36.3 -30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Scotiabank 39.0 44.6 32.8 36.9
UBS 39.7 48.3 32.6 39.8
Summary 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Minimum 37.0 40.9 30.8 36.3
60
Maximum 42.6 49.2 37.1 42.3
Median 40.4 45.9 34.6 39.1
Consensus 40.1 45.7 34.1 38.8 56
History
30 days ago 41.6 47.1 35.9 40.5
52
60 days ago 40.8 47.5 35.6 41.0
90 days ago 48.4 50.8 42.5 44.5
48
44
2020 2021
40
60
Peru
Latin America
30
-30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
52
48
44
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts 36
32 Exports, annual variation in %. 2020 2021


USD bn USD bn Peru
AGPV 68.0 70.0 - - 20
BCP/Credicorp Capital 68.0 - 77.0 - 15
EIU 73.1 78.9 - -
Fitch Solutions 69.8 72.1 - -
Goldman Sachs 69.8 71.0 90.2 98.3 5
HSBC 65.6 65.6 87.0 93.0
JPMorgan 68.3 - - - 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Oxford Economics 70.2 73.6 - -
Scotiabank 73.0 74.0 - -
UBS 65.2 69.3 81.8 85.9
Summary 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Minimum 65.2 65.6 77.0 84.8
75
Maximum 73.1 78.9 90.2 98.3
Median 69.8 71.0 81.8 89.4
Consensus 69.5 71.7 83.6 90.5
History
70
30 days ago 68.4 70.3 83.5 89.2
60 days ago 68.5 70.6 83.1 89.4
90 days ago 70.6 71.3 83.1 85.5
65
2020 2021
60
60
Peru
Latin America
50
40
30
20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
92
2020 2021
88
Notes and sources

84
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts

Fact Sheet
General Data Peru in the Region

Official name: Republic of Peru Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Lima (10.4m)
Other cities: Arequipa (0.9m) Peru Peru
Trujillo (0.8m) 5.4% 4.5%
Area (km2): 1,285,216
22.9% 19.6%
Brazil
Colombia
6.4%
Brazil
36.2%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 5.6 Argentina
7.5%
Language: Spanish, Quechua and Argentina
8.6%
Aymara Colombia
8.4%
Measures: Metric system
Mexico Mexico
Time: GMT-5 20.9% 24.8%
Economic Structure
100 125
100
80
Energy (2017)
75
60
50
Government
Consumption
25
Services 0
0 -25
Airports: 191
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Callao, Paita, Matarani
Other
14.0% U.S.A. Other 9.2%

Brazil U.S.A.
5.6% 19.6%

President: Martín Vizcarra

Last elections: 10 April 2016 LatAm
13.9% EU-27
Next elections: April 2021 Exports 14.5% Other Imports EU-27
LatAm
Central Bank President: Julio Velarde Flores

20.2% 12.1%
India

5.3%
Other Asia

ex-Japan
Other Asia
6.4% ex-Japan
10.1%
China
China
23.3%
29.5%
Moody’s: A3 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BBB+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable
Other Other
1.0% 2.4%
Manufact.
Food
Products
11.9%
11.7%
24.1%
• Mining, energy and fish • Large informal economy Mineral
Fuels
resources • Inadequate infrastructure
13.9%
Exports Imports
• Low public debt • High dependence on commodity Mineral
Fuels
• Strong growth potential prices 9.3%
Ores & Manufact.

. . Metals Products
53.7% 72.0%

FOCUSECONOMICS Venezuela June 2020
Venezuela
Venezuela
• Venezuela’s depression has deepened in the first half of the year as the
collapse in global demand for oil pummeled exports. Throttled by U.S.
sanctions, oil output and refining capacity collapsed in April–May, causing
acute gasoline shortages. In response, the government introduced a new
dual-price system which hikes prices and imposes rationing at a heavily
subsidized price at gas stations. The move comes after Iran shipped
1.5 million barrels of fuel to Venezuela at the end of May, presumably
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages in exchange for gold, thus giving the government a brief respite. That
2013-15 2016-18 2019-21
said, the Trump administration began preparing new sanctions in June
Population (million): 30.2 29.9 26.1 in an effort to cut off trade between the two countries. Meanwhile,
GDP (USD bn): 257 174 62
President Nicolas Maduro is reportedly moving to appoint loyalists to the
GDP growth (%): -3.0 -17.5 -18.5 electoral council through a Supreme Court ruling ahead of December’s
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -12.5 -19.6 -16.7 Congressional election, thus bypassing the regular voting procedure
Inflation (%): 71.6 2,221 12,664 required by the opposition-controlled National Assembly.
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.4 4.8 4.7
• The economy will contract for the seventh year running in 2020. The
Nicolas J. Aguilar collapse in global oil prices and U.S. sanctions will hinder oil output and
Economist investment, while measures to curtail the spread of Covid-19 look set to
take a toll on household consumption. Amid falling revenues, government
spending is set to decline ahead of Congressional elections in December.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts The LatinFocus Consensus projects the economy to contract 20.1% in
9 8
2020, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In
0 2021, the panel sees GDP shrinking 2.1%.
0
-9
-8
• Inflation eased to 2,297% in May (April: 2,312%), marking the lowest
-18 print since March 2018. The deployment of price controls in April and the
-16 partial dollarization of the economy have helped reduce price pressures
-27
2020 2021 as of late. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to pick up, stoked by the
-36
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
-24
Covid-19 fallout and shortages. Our panel sees inflation at 3,992% by the
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021 end of 2020 and at 2,071% by the end of 2021.
• The bolivar depreciated further over the past month, as the plunge in oil
demand hammered the country’s main source of foreign currency. On
Oil Production Oil Price
115
12 June, the VES ended the day at 203,258 per USD, while the parallel
2.5
market rate came in at 208,612 VES per USD. The Central Bank has
2.0 90
increased the supply of dollars in the past few weeks, helping to reverse
the bolivar’s slide in the parallel market. Our panelists project the official
1.5 65
rate to end 2020 around 1.8 million VES per USD.
1.0 40
0.5 15
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Oil production, millions of barrels Venezuelan oil price, USD per barrel.
per day.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to over two-year low in May but

remains sky-high and is expected to spike on Covid-19 fallout
Inflation | Consumer Price Index National consumer prices rose 38.6% from the previous month in May, up
200 400,000 from April’s 27.5% month-on-month increase and marking the highest print
Month-on-month (left scale) in four months, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela
150
300,000
(BCV) on 8 June. The acceleration largely reflected faster rising prices for
household equipment, food and housing services. On the other hand, prices
% %
for apparel and transport grew at a softer pace than in the previous month.
100 200,000
Meanwhile, inflation receded to 2,297% in May (April: 2,312%), marking the

50 100,000
lowest print since March 2018. The removal of price controls last year enabled
the private sector to play a greater role in the import and sale of consumer
0
0
goods, thus reducing price pressures. This, coupled with a rapid dollarization
of the economy, have helped quell price pressures somewhat. Meanwhile,
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Venezuela Central Bank (BCV) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. annual average inflation stood at 3,231%, down from 3,759% in April.
Going forward, inflation is expected to accelerate, however. Inflationary

pressures stemming for an acute gasoline shortage are set to spillover into
others sectors of the economy, while the sharp depreciation of the bolivar will
result in a stronger pass-through effect. To tame the bout in inflation, on 24
April the government reintroduced price controls on 27 food products, and
hiked the minimum wage as well as pensions and food bonuses. The move is
likely to aggravate shortages and spawn parallel markets, however.
FocusEconomics Consensus forecasts sees inflation ending 2020 at 3,992%,

before falling to around 2,071% by the end of 2021.
Meanwhile, the panel projects the economy to shrink 20.1% in 2020, which
is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the panel
sees GDP contracting 2.1%.

Annual Data 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real Sector
Population (million) 29.8 30.2 30.6 30.7 30.3 28.9 27.5 25.9 24.8
GDP per capita (USD) 7,870 7,030 10,568 9,092 4,755 3,411 2,448 2,325 2,355
GDP (USD bn) 234 212 324 279 144 98 67 60 58
GDP (VES bn) 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.28 2.01 - - - -
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 37 35 165 250 615 - - - -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.3 -3.9 -6.2 -17.0 -15.7 -19.6 -30.8 -20.1 -2.1
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -1.9 -8.8 -11.8 -26.3 -21.1 -18.2 -28.4 -19.7 -1.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.7 -3.4 -8.9 -19.4 -16.2 -20.1 -31.0 -22.8 -0.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.3 0.6 -3.2 -14.7 -7.2 -9.1 -23.8 -13.5 -5.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -9.0 -16.9 -20.4 -45.1 -45.3 -37.5 -37.0 -25.8 -5.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -6.2 -4.7 -0.9 -11.7 0.0 -10.8 -28.3 -24.3 4.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -9.7 -18.5 -23.1 -50.1 -34.7 0.3 -23.8 -19.4 1.8
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) -0.3 -7.2 -8.1 -26.6 -25.3 -39.3 -37.2 -28.3 -7.9
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.5 7.0 6.8 10.3 13.3 6.9 22.7 31.2 29.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -11.3 -15.6 -10.7 -10.8 -16.6 -31.3 -10.0 -24.3 -15.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 33.3 25.2 11.1 5.1 23.1 182.4 206.6 236.1 235.6
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 70 64 101 159 1,121 63,257 4,946 6,114 3,676
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 56 69 181 274 863 130,060 9,585 3,992 2,071
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 41 62 122 255 438 65,374 19,906 12,847 7,929
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 14.74 14.84 14.59 14.62 14.77 15.00 24.00 - -
Stock Market (ann. var. of IBC, %) 480 41 278 117 3,884 126,985 5,521 - -
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 6.3 6.3 6.3 10.0 10.0 638 46,621 1,810,205 34.8. mn.
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, aop) 6.1 6.3 6.3 9.3 10.0 81.9 15,910 459,181 18.3. mn.
Non-official Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 62.3 170 833 3,165 111,413 730 54,703 1,325,068 38.5. mn.
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.0 2.3 -5.6 -0.4 6.1 8.7 9.6 1.9 2.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 4.6 4.9 -16.1 -3.9 8.7 8.6 6.4 1.2 1.6
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 31.6 27.4 3.9 11.0 22.0 20.9 15.7 8.1 8.1
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 88.8 74.7 37.2 27.4 34.0 33.7 25.5 15.4 15.7
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 57.2 47.3 33.3 16.4 12.0 12.8 9.7 7.3 7.7
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -9.3 -15.9 -50.1 -26.4 24.2 -1.0 -24.4 -39.5 2.1
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -13.3 -17.4 -29.5 -50.9 -26.6 6.5 -23.9 -25.4 5.6
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel) 98.8 88.4 44.7 35.2 46.7 63.6 57.8 26.5 42.4
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.7 -1.0 0.8 1.1 -0.1 1.0 - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 21.5 22.1 16.4 11.0 9.7 8.8 7.5 5.9 5.8
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.5 5.6 5.9 8.1 9.6 8.3 9.2 9.8 9.0
External Debt (USD bn) 122 120 125 128 113 108 107 106 106
External Debt (% of GDP) 52.1 56.7 38.6 45.7 78.7 110 158 177 182
Quarterly Data Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -28.2 -19.9 -21.6 -19.7 -17.3 -7.2 -2.6 0.7 3.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 9,586 2,431 2,820 3,830 3,992 7,453 6,792 4,445 2,071
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 46,621 80,270 244,433 575,639 1,810,205 - - - -
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, aop) 31,370 71,415 162,351 410,036 1,192,922 - - - -
Monthly Data Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 10,535 9,500 7,616 4,946 2,872 1,911 1,644 1,574 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 52.2 22.6 25.7 31.5 62.2 21.9 13.3 27.5 38.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 39,114 25,450 14,291 9,585 5,197 2,911 2,431 2,312 2,297
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 20,746 23,403 38,981 46,621 74,990 73,652 80,270 176,563 197,215
Non-official Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 21,299 24,754 41,594 54,703 75,016 76,472 87,397 177,692 195,803
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel) 56.9 57.4 51.1 55.4 55.8 45.9 25.6 13.4 -
Oil Production (mn barrels per day) 0.64 0.69 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.76 0.66 0.62 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 8.0 8.0 7.6 7.5 6.8 7.0 7.0 6.4 6.5
Notes:
1. On 20 August 2018, authorities overhauled the currency by removing five zeroes from the Bolívar Fuerte (VEF) and renaming it as the Bolívar Soberano (VES).
Exchange rate historical data through 2017 are expressed in VEF. Historical data and forecasts for 2018 onwards are expressed in VES.
2. Given the current economic conditions in Venezuela and the limited availability of official data, it has become extremely difficult to compute adequate forecasts,
particularly for the long term. Therefore, FocusEconomics has discontinued providing forecasts for the 2022-2024 period temporarily. We hope to resume providing
these forecasts once reliable data becomes available.
3. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

Venezuela
Latin America AGPV -18.6 2.3
World Andes Investments -16.1 -4.9
0 0 DekaBank -25.4 2.4
Dinámica Venezuela -14.5 -7.8
DuckerFrontier -22.0 -0.9
Ecoanalítica -24.8 -1.0
-20 -20 Econométrica -24.0 -
EIU -25.4 2.4
Venezuela
Euromonitor Int. -17.1 -5.1
Latin America
World Fitch Solutions -23.6 0.3
-40 -40 Goldman Sachs -15.0 -5.0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Julius Baer -18.0 -1.5
Kiel Institute -15.0 -5.0
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Moody's Analytics -14.6 2.2
Novo Banco -15.0 -
30 40
Oxford Economics -33.0 0.8
Maximum
Consensus Polinomics -20.0 -10.0
15 Minimum Torino Capital -24.7 -7.0
UBS -10.0 -5.0
20
0
Summary
Minimum -33.0 -10.0
Maximum -10.0 5.0
-15
Median -19.3 -1.2
0
Consensus -20.1 -2.1
-30 Maximum History
Consensus 30 days ago -19.6 -1.0
Minimum
-45 -20
60 days ago -17.6 -1.2
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 90 days ago -11.0 -2.1
IMF (Apr. 2020) -15.0 -5.0
5 | Consumption | variation in % 6 | Investment | variation in % CEPAL (May 2020) -18.0 -
20 60
Venezuela
Latin America
30
0
-20
Venezuela -30 Notes and sources

Latin America
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2021 unless otherwise stated. The
-40 -60 Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela), Statistical
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística) and the IMF. Forecasts
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCV
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of fcst
Source: BCV
16 40
8 5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: BCV
20 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: BCV
7 Private consumption, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last
0 18 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the
0 last 18 months.
-8 9 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE
10 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF
-20 11 Public debt % of GDP. Source: IMF
-16 12 Unemployment, % of active population, evolution of 2020 and 2021
forecasts during the last 18 months.
2020 2021 2020 2021
13 Balance of non-financial central government as % of GDP, evolution of
-24 -40 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 14 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during
the last 18 months.


Consumption Investment Fiscal Balance Public Debt
variation in % variation in % % of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
AGPV - - - - -15.0 -10.0 160.0 150.0
Andes Investments -17.1 -4.6 -24.0 -6.5 -21.1 -18.5 167.3 174.0
Capital Economics - - - - -50.0 -30.0 280.0 300.0
DekaBank - - - - -21.5 -3.9 - -
Dinámica Venezuela -16.8 -9.6 -58.6 -33.2 - - - -
DuckerFrontier - - - - - - - -
Ecoanalítica -26.6 -2.1 -19.9 -0.1 - - - -
Econométrica -21.0 - - - - - - -
EIU -28.4 5.4 -10.0 -5.0 -21.5 -3.9 - -
Euromonitor Int. -16.7 -4.6 - - - - - -
Fitch Solutions - - - - -25.8 -18.0 - -
Goldman Sachs - - - - -31.1 -30.9 - -
Julius Baer - - - - - - - -
Kiel Institute - - - - - - - -
Moody's Analytics -17.8 1.6 -15.6 4.9 -18.0 -14.3 - -
Novo Banco - - - - - - - -
Oxford Economics -39.1 8.8 -31.6 7.0 -17.3 -10.5 337.1 318.3
Polinomics - - - - - - - -
Torino Capital -21.7 -2.2 -20.8 -5.0 - - - -
UBS - - - - -22.0 -18.0 - -
Summary
Minimum -39.1 -9.6 -58.6 -33.2 -50.0 -30.9 160.0 150.0
Maximum -16.7 8.8 -10.0 7.0 -15.0 -3.9 337.1 318.3
Median -21.0 -2.2 -20.8 -5.0 -21.5 -16.2 223.7 237.0
Consensus -22.8 -0.9 -25.8 -5.4 -24.3 -15.8 236.1 235.6
History
30 days ago -20.9 -0.3 -22.8 -5.1 -23.3 -13.6 181.8 174.8
60 days ago -16.1 -1.7 -22.8 -4.5 -23.3 -17.5 188.0 186.4
90 days ago -11.6 -0.4 -15.1 -1.2 -16.9 -10.8 182.1 154.7
9 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 10 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 11 | Public Debt | % of GDP
35 8 250
Venezuela
Latin America
0 200
25
-8 150
-16 100
15
-24 50
Venezuela
Latin America
5 -32 0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
12 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts 13 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts 14 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts
35 -7 250
2020 2021
30 -12
200
25 -17
150
20 -22
2020 2021 2020 2021
15 -27 100
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

Monetary Sector | Additional Forecasts
Money Supply and Inflation 15 | Money Supply | variation in %

Money Supply Consumer Prices
80,000
AGPV 1,562 1,115 1,928 2,122
60,000
Andes Investments 18,034 14,299 7,835 5,301
Capital Economics - - - -
DekaBank - - - -
40,000
Dinámica Venezuela 3,816 - 1,055 -
DuckerFrontier - - - -
Ecoanalítica 3,782 1,590 8,906 3,492
20,000
Econométrica - - - -
EIU 6,228 1,534 - -
Euromonitor Int. - - - -
0
Fitch Solutions 3,845 608 5,461 500 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Goldman Sachs - - - -
Julius Baer - - - -
Kiel Institute - - - - 16 | Inflation | Q4 17-Q4 21 | in %
Moody's Analytics - - 1,535 625 400
Thousands
Novo Banco - - - -
Oxford Economics - - 2,028 463
Polinomics - - 3,500 1,500 300
Torino Capital 5,533 2,912 3,682 2,561
UBS - - - -
Summary 200
Minimum 1,562 608 1,055 463
Maximum 18,034 14,299 8,906 5,301
Median 3,845 1,562 3,500 1,811
100
Consensus 6,114 3,676 3,992 2,071
History
30 days ago 6,502 4,291 3,597 2,105
0
60 days ago 9,693 8,738 4,030 2,512 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
90 days ago 2,433 1,138 3,852 1,924
17 | Current Account | USD bn

40
25
10
-5
-20
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
18 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
6
2020 2021
Notes and sources
4
Venezuela. Long-term forecasts (2022-2024) for end-of period indicators are based on both end-of-period and average-of-
period projections. All monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2
15 Money supply M2, annual variation in %.
16 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (eop), in thousands.
17 Current account balance in USD bn.
18 Current account balance in USD bn, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 0
20 Imports, annual variation in %.
21 International reserves, months of imports. -2
22 Exports in USD bn, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
23 Imports in USD bn, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
24 International reserves, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

External Sector | Current Account, Trade Balance and International Reserves
Current
Current Account, Trade Balance andAccount
Oil Price Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves
USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
AGPV - - - - 18.0 19.0 - - 6.8 6.8
Andes Investments 4.2 4.4 4.4 6.3 14.5 17.3 10.1 11.0 4.1 5.2
Capital Economics - - - - - - - - - -
DekaBank -2.2 -0.6 - - - - - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 1.2 -0.6 13.3 8.7 23.7 20.4 10.4 11.7 7.0 6.1
DuckerFrontier - - - - - - - - - -
Ecoanalítica 0.5 -0.7 2.6 5.7 7.8 10.8 5.3 5.1 4.8 3.4
Econométrica - - - - - - - - - -
EIU -1.4 -0.4 3.0 4.5 10.0 11.6 7.0 7.1 5.7 6.1
Euromonitor Int. 5.4 6.5 23.2 23.2 31.6 30.3 8.4 7.2 5.8 4.8
Fitch Solutions - - 2.3 2.5 9.0 11.4 6.7 8.9 - -
Goldman Sachs -2.1 1.3 - - - - - - - -
Julius Baer - - - - - - - - - -
Kiel Institute - - - - - - - - - -
Moody's Analytics - - - - - - - - - -
Novo Banco - - - - - - - - - -
Oxford Economics 1.1 2.0 1.4 2.8 5.8 7.9 4.4 5.1 5.5 6.0
Polinomics - - - - - - - - - -
Torino Capital 3.8 2.1 12.0 10.6 18.2 16.7 6.2 6.1 6.5 6.6
UBS - - 8.4 5.0 15.4 12.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Summary
Minimum -2.2 -0.7 1.4 2.5 5.8 7.9 4.4 5.1 4.1 3.4
Maximum 5.4 6.5 23.2 23.2 31.6 30.3 10.4 11.7 7.0 7.0
Median 1.1 1.3 4.4 5.7 15.0 14.3 7.0 7.1 5.8 6.1
Consensus 1.2 1.6 8.1 8.1 15.4 15.7 7.3 7.7 5.9 5.8
History
30 days ago 1.2 1.3 8.8 8.7 16.0 16.1 7.3 7.4 5.9 5.7
60 days ago 1.9 2.8 10.0 10.5 18.0 19.2 8.0 8.8 6.4 6.4
90 days ago 3.7 2.8 12.4 11.0 21.1 20.3 8.8 9.3 6.8 6.9
19 | Exports | variation in % 20 | Imports | variation in % 21 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
60 90 30
Venezuela Venezuela
60
30
20
30
0
0
10
-30
-30
Venezuela
Latin America
-60 -60 0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
22 | Exports | evol. of fcst 23 | Imports | evol. of fcst 24 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
40 20 16
2020 2021 2020 2021
30 15 12
20 10 8
2020 2021
10 5 4
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

Fact Sheet
General Data Venezuela in the Region*

Official name: Bolivarian Republic of Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Venezuela
Capital: Caracas (2.9m) Venezuela Venezuela
4.4% 1.4%
Other cities: Maracaibo (2.1m)
Valencia (1.7m)
Area (km2): 912,050 Other Other
Population (million, 2019 est.): 27.5 27.1% 23.9%
Population density (per km2, 2019): 30.2 Brazil

Brazil
35.6%
33.4%
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): -0.2
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 71.0 Colombia
6.3%
Argentina
Language: Spanish Colombia
Argentina
8.4%
Mexico Mexico
Time: GMT-4.30 20.0% 24.4%
Economic Structure
Communications (2018)
100 120
80 90
Energy (2017)
60 60
Government
Consumption
Services
0 -30
Airports: 444
Railways (km): 447
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: La Guaira, Maracaibo
Belgium
5.0%
U.S.A.

11.5%

19.6% Other Spain

President: Nicolás Maduro Moros
29.5% 5.0%

Last elections: 20 May 2018

India
31.3%

Next elections: 2023 United Arab
Emirates Exports Imports China
Central Bank President: Calixto Ortega Sánchez
9.1%

20.5%

Brazil
Malaysia 5.1%
9.2%

Argentina

6.4% Other
Mexico LatAm
China 8.3% 13.7%

Moody’s: C Stable
S&P Global Ratings: SD N.M. Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: WD -

Other Other

Strengths Weaknesses 12.1%

Food
16.6%
8.8%

• Largest proven oil reserves in • Dependence on oil
the world • Deep political polarization
Exports
• Abundant wealth in natural • Runaway inflation Imports
resources • Exchange rate misalignments
Mineral
Fuels Manufact.
87.9% Products
74.6%
*Note: Regional calculation includes Venezuela

Other Countries
FOCUSECONOMICS Bolivia June 2020
Bolivia
Bolivia
Outlook moderates
• Available data already shows the initial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic
in the first quarter, with a greater toll expected going forward. In March,
economic activity fell markedly on a collapse in metals production and a
broad-based contraction across the services sector, alluding to a worse
scenario for Q2 as lockdown measures were extended until mid-May.
On the external front, merchandise exports crumbled by nearly two-
thirds in April on weak hydrocarbon and mineral prices and ailing foreign
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages demand, while imports suffered a similar fate—reflecting the depressed
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
demand environment at home. Meanwhile, the government has started to
Population (million): 11.2 11.7 12.3 gradually lift restrictions to ease the economic pain, though significantly
GDP (USD bn): 37.3 41.2 46.8
risking a spike in contagion. In politics, the re-run of the controversial
GDP growth (%): 4.2 0.9 3.4 October presidential election, which saw social unrest and the resignation
Public Debt (% of GDP): 50.5 63.6 66.4 of former President Evo Morales, has been scheduled for 6 September.
Inflation (%): 2.9 1.8 3.3
External Debt (% of GDP): 33.3 40.7 46.6 • The Covid-19 pandemic is set to deal a harsh blow to the economy this
year. Containment measures will severely constrain domestic output while
Javier Colato
Economist exports will reel amid the collapse in prices for hydrocarbons and subdued
foreign demand. Greater strain to fiscal accounts and the resurgence of
social and political turbulence ahead of the election pose downside risks.
FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to shrink 3.2% in 2020,
8 6
which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and to
grow 3.7% in 2021.
4
4
2
• Inflation dropped from 1.7% in April to 1.2% in May. A stable currency,
0 propped up by the country’s managed foreign exchange system, has
0
helped keep inflation in check for over a decade. Price pressures are
-4
-2
expected to remain contained ahead, partly due to weaker economic
Bolivia
Latin America 2020 2021 activity. Our panel forecasts inflation will end 2020 at 1.4% and 2021 at
World
-8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
-4
2.8%.
GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021
Source: INE. forecasts during the last 18 months.

15 4.5
Bolivia
Latin America
3.5
10
2.5
5
1.5
2020 2021
0 0.5
Consumer Price Index (CPI), Inflation, evolution of 2020 and 2021
annual variation in %. forecasts during the last 18 months.
Source: INE.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 33.1 34.1 37.5 40.3 40.9 40.1 42.6 44.6 46.8 48.9
GDP (BOB bn) 228 235 259 278 283 278 299 321 346 374
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.0 3.4 11.8 3.2 -3.5 -7.7 5.1 3.7 3.2 2.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -5.9 -5.7 -5.0 5.2 -1.8 -8.8 6.5 4.5 3.2 1.9
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 16.3 -3.9 8.2 5.4 -7.5 - - - - -
Prime Lending Rate (in %, eop) 8.07 7.95 8.11 8.04 8.40 8.86 8.81 8.75 8.72 -
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, eop) 6.90 6.93 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.97 7.07 7.29 7.53 7.77
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, aop) 6.90 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.94 7.02 7.18 7.41 7.65
External Sector
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.4 -0.9 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5
External Debt (USD bn) 9.9 11.0 13.0 13.3 15.1 16.8 18.5 20.1 21.8 23.6
0
1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Exchange Rate | BOB per USD 3 | Current Account | % of GDP
5 8.2 15
10
7.7
0
5
7.2
0
-5
6.7
Bolivia -5
Bolivia
Latin America
Latin America
-10 6.2 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from the National Statistical Institute
(INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística), the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Refinitiv. See below for details. Forecasts
1 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
2 Exchange rate, BOB per USD (eop). Source: Refinitiv.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: BCB.

Fact Sheet
General Data Bolivia in the Region

Official name: Plurinational State of Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Bolivia
Bolivia Bolivia
Capital (Administrative): La Paz (1.8 m) 1.9% 0.5%
Capital (Judicial): Sucre (0.2 m)

Other cities: Cochabamba (1.2 m)
Area (km2): 1,098,581 Other Other
26.4% 23.4%
Population (million, 2019 est.): 11.6
Brazil Brazil
Population density (per km2, 2019): 10.5 34.9% 36.1%
Colombia
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 70.4 Argentina 6.4%
Argentina
Language: Spanish, Quechua and Colombia 8.6%
Aymara 8.4%
Mexico Mexico
Measures: Metric system 20.9% 24.7%
Time: GMT-4
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 100.8 2010-12 2013-15 2016-18 2010-12 2013-15 2016-18
100 120
80 90
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 852 60
Manufacturing
60
Investment
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 343

40 Other Industry 30 Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 8.3 Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 77.3

Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 102.3 20
Services
0 Private
Consumption
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 21.7
0 -30
Airports: 855
Chief Ports: Puerto Aguirre
Japan U.S.A.
20.2%
9.3% Other
6.4%

EU-27
20.9% 8.1%
President: Jeanine Añez* EU-27
12.6%

Last elections: 20 October 2019

Next elections: 6 September 2020 Colombia China
6.8% Exports Chile Imports 19.5%
Central Bank President: Guillermo Aponte Other Asia
ex-Japan
7.3%
8.5%
Brazil

*Interim president since 12 November 12.0%
India
Brazil
Other

13.9%
13.2% LatAm
Argentina 7.6%
Argentina
16.3%

Moody’s: B1 Negative
S&P Global Ratings: B+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: B+ Negative Other Other
0.5% 1.5%
Manufact.
Products Food
5.1% 8.2%
19.1% Mineral
Fuels
• Rich in natural resources • Landlocked country
11.4%

• Improving currency autonomy • Highly dependent on the Ores &

• Exchange rate and price stability hydrocarbon sector Exports

Metals
37.5% Imports
• Elevated levels of poverty
Mineral
Fuels Manufact.
37.7% Products
79.0%

FOCUSECONOMICS Ecuador June 2020
Ecuador
Ecuador
• The coronavirus pandemic and oil price crash are hammering the
economy in the first half of the year. Merchandise exports fell to an over
one-decade low in April, with crude production collapsing in the same
month. With revenues tumbling, on 28 May the government announced
it would slash spending to save approximately USD 4.0 billion, which will
further compound the economic downturn. Meanwhile, in a bid to reboot
domestic activity, since 3 June, businesses have been allowed to resume
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages activity in Quito, while some shops can operate with limited capacity.
Moreover, at the beginning of June the authorities commenced a first
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
Population (million): 16.8 17.5 18.3 round of creditor talks, with the aim of reaching a first debt restructuring
GDP (USD bn): 103.9 104.5 115.9
offer by the end of the month. The government is also seeking to secure
GDP growth (%): 0.8 -1.4 2.1 a staff-level agreement with the IMF, while negotiating the terms of a USD
Public Debt (% of GDP) 42.9 57.8 58.8 2.4 billion loan from China.
Inflation (%): 0.6 0.2 1.5
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.1 -0.8 0.5
External Debt (% of GDP): 37.9 54.1 54.0 • GDP is expected to contract notably this year due to the Covid-19 crisis.
Containment measures will cripple domestic demand, while continued
Hanna Andersson
Economist low oil prices will hammer exports and revenues. Despite funding from
multilateral organizations, the risk of a sovereign debt default remains
high and further clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project
GDP to contract 7.0% in 2020, which is down 1.2 percentage points from
last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees GDP growth at 3.0%.
• Inflation came in at 0.8% in May, down from April’s 1.0%. Looking ahead,
price pressures are expected to fall amid depressed domestic demand
and muted crude prices. FocusEconomics panelists project consumer
prices to fall 0.1% on an annual basis by end-2020, while they see
inflation ending 2021 at 0.8%.
Economic Activity | variation in % REAL SECTOR | Economic activity drops again in April
4
Economic activity dropped 2.8% year-on-year in April (March: -3.3% year-on-
year) according to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC) released
by the Central Bank of Ecuador.
2
%
On a monthly basis, economic activity rose 0.2% in April (March: -0.3% month-
0
on-month). The print marked the best result since May 2018. Meanwhile, the
trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of economic activity
-2 coming in at minus 2.1%, down from March’s minus 1.9% reading.
Year-on-year Annual Average
-4
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project GDP to
contract 7.0% in 2020, which is down 1.2 percentage points from last month’s
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity estimate. For 2021, the panel sees GDP growth at 3.0%.
in %.
Source: Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador) and FocusEconomics
calculations.

Inflation | Consumer Price Index MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation drops in May

1.2 1.2 Consumer prices fell 0.3% over the previous month in May, contrasting the
1.0% rise seen in April. May’s result marked the sharpest fall in prices since
November 2019 and largely reflected lower prices for food and non-alcoholic
0.6 0.6
beverages.
% %
0.0 0.0
Inflation came in at 0.8% in May, down from April’s 1.0%. Meanwhile, the trend
was unchanged with annual average inflation coming in at April’s 0.3% in May.
-0.6 -0.6
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see consumer

-1.2 -1.2
prices falling 0.1% on an annual basis by end-2020, which is up 0.1 percentage
points from last month’s estimate. The panel projects inflation ending 2021 at
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of consumer price index in %. 0.8%.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INEC).

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 99.3 99.9 104.3 107.6 107.4 100.6 105.3 110.7 115.9 121.1
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) -2.4 0.7 4.4 3.1 -0.1 -6.3 4.7 5.2 4.7 4.5
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.1 -1.2 2.4 1.3 0.1 -7.0 3.0 2.4 2.1 1.9
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -2.2 -4.3 5.5 2.2 -0.9 -8.3 3.5 2.4 2.2 2.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.1 -2.4 3.7 2.1 1.5 -6.9 3.6 2.6 2.3 2.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 -0.2 3.2 3.5 -2.5 -1.8 -0.3 0.9 1.8 2.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -6.2 -8.9 5.3 2.0 -3.4 -15.1 4.2 3.5 3.2 3.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.6 1.4 0.7 1.2 5.2 -8.1 4.2 2.8 2.2 1.7
Industry (ann. var. %) -0.5 -1.5 0.0 -1.0 0.1 -3.5 2.7 2.4 2.3 -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 4.8 5.2 4.6 3.7 3.8 8.9 9.0 - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.4 1.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 1.5 1.9 2.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.0 1.7 0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.8
91-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 5.14 5.12 4.95 5.62 6.22 - - - - -
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 1.1 -0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -1.8 -0.7 0.0 0.5 1.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.2 1.1 -0.2 -1.3 -0.1 -1.8 -0.7 0.0 0.6 1.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -3.2 0.5 -0.9 -1.5 -0.2 -0.9 -0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -28.7 -8.4 13.8 13.1 3.2 -28.1 22.4 15.1 9.9 4.7
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.3 -1.0 -5.5 -9.4 -6.9 -4.3 -0.2 6.9 4.7 4.0
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq var. %) 0.0 -0.7 - - - - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4
Economic Activity (IDEAC, ann. var. %) -1.1 -1.7 -2.3 -2.7 -2.8 -3.0 -3.2 -3.3 -2.8 -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 38.2 37.0 37.0 37.6 37.2 37.0 37.1 - - -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) -0.1 0.0 0.5 -0.7 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.2 1.0 -0.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 1.0 0.8

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17-Q4 21 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
10 15.0 Real GDP Fiscal Balance

var. in % % of GDP
AGPV -6.0 0.5 - -
5 7.5
Barclays Capital -7.8 4.1 - -
CABI -6.2 3.0 -4.0 -3.5
Capital Economics -6.5 3.0 -7.0 -4.5
0 0.0 Citigroup Global Mkts -9.0 4.0 -3.5 -2.5
EIU -9.0 4.5 -6.1 -4.1
-5 -7.5 Euromonitor Int. -6.2 3.8 -4.8 -3.0
Ecuador Ecuador Fitch Solutions -5.2 1.5 -6.7 -3.9
Latin America Latin America Goldman Sachs -7.5 3.0 - -
World World Humboldt Management -7.3 0.6 -8.0 -5.2
-10 -15.0
JPMorgan -9.5 2.5 -8.6 -7.8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
Moody's Analytics -3.5 2.2 - -
Oxford Economics -5.8 5.3 - -
Torino Capital -6.3 3.5 - -
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Summary
Minimum -9.5 0.5 -8.6 -7.8
5 6
Maximum
Maximum -3.5 5.3 -3.5 -2.5
Consensus Median -6.5 3.0 -6.4 -4.0
Minimum Consensus -7.0 3.0 -6.1 -4.3
4 History
0 30 days ago -5.8 2.5 -4.9 -2.9
60 days ago -5.2 2.0 -4.6 -2.8
2 90 days ago 0.0 0.8 -0.2 0.1
IMF (Apr. 2020) -6.3 3.9 - -
-5
World Bank (June 2020) -7.4 4.1 - -
0
Maximum CEPAL (May 2020) -6.5 - - -
Consensus
Minimum
-10 -2
5 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
12 5
Ecuador
Latin America
9 0
6 -5
Ecuador
Latin America
3 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources

7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
9.5 2 General:
2020 2021
Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector
8.5 0 data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador) and
the National Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y
Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
7.5 -2
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCE.
6.5 -4
Source: BCE.
5.5 5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEC.
-6
6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCE.
2020 2021 7 Unemployment, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18
4.5
months.
-8
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2020
and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate
9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2024 | in % 10 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in % Consumer Price Index and Current Account
100 9 CPI Current Account

Ecuador variation in % % of GDP
Latin America Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021
75 Barclays Capital 0.5 0.8 -2.9 -2.2
6
CABI 0.0 0.0 - -
Capital Economics - - -4.0 -2.0
50
DuckerFrontier - - - -
3 EIU -0.6 1.0 -1.7 -0.1
25 Euromonitor Int. - - -1.5 -0.3
Fitch Solutions 0.7 1.5 -1.3 0.1
0 Goldman Sachs -0.1 1.2 -2.3 -1.0
0 Humboldt Management -0.7 0.4 0.5 0.7
Ecuador JPMorgan -0.3 -0.3 -2.2 -1.4
Latin America Moody's Analytics -0.2 2.5 -1.0 1.1
-25 -3 Oxford Economics 0.3 1.2 -2.4 -1.5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Torino Capital 0.3 0.5 -0.9 -0.9
Summary
Minimum -0.7 -0.3 -4.0 -2.2
11 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst 12 | Inflation 2021 | evolution of fcst Maximum 0.7 2.5 0.5 1.1
Median -0.1 0.8 -1.7 -0.9
4 6
Consensus -0.1 0.8 -1.8 -0.7
History
30 days ago -0.2 0.8 -2.2 -1.0
4 60 days ago -0.3 0.9 -2.3 -0.4
2 90 days ago 0.5 1.0 -0.4 -0.3
2 IMF (Apr. 2020) 0.1 2.3 - -
0
0 Maximum
Maximum
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum
-2 -2
13 | Current Account | % of GDP 14 | Trade Balance | USD bn
6 30
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
3 20
0 10
-3 0
Ecuador
Latin America
-6 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Notes and sources
15 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 16 | Trade Balance | evol. of fcst General:

1 0.8 Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary and
external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del
2020 2021 Ecuador) and the National Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
0 Forecast.
0.0
Source: INEC.
-1 10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
(eop). Source: INEC.
-0.8 11 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-2
13 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCE.
14 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: BCE.
2020 2021
15 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021
-3 -1.5
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 16 Trade balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18
months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Ecuador in the Region

Official name: Republic of Ecuador Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Quito (1.8m)
Other cities: Guayaquil (2.9m) Ecuador
Ecuador
2.9%
Cuenca (0.3m) 2.1%
Area (km2): 283,561

Population (million, 2019 est.): 17.3
Other
Population density (per km2, 2019): 60.9 Other
25.4% 22.0%
Brazil
Brazil
36.2%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2017): 7.2 Colombia
Language: Spanish, Quechua Argentina
6.4%

Argentina
Time: GMT-5 Colombia
8.6%
8.4%
Mexico Mexico
20.9% 24.8%
Economic Structure
100 110
80
80
Energy (2017)
60
50
Government
Consumption
20
Services
Airports: 432
Railways (km): 965
Chief Ports: Guayaquil, Manta
Other

Political Data Other 4.6%
9.0% Colombia
Peru U.S.A. 8.0% U.S.A.

6.2%
President: Lenín Moreno Garcés 23.4%
Panama
25.9%
Last elections: 2 April 2017 Chile

8.6%
Next elections: 28 February 2021 10.8%

Exports
Imports

Central Bank Governor: Verónica Artola Jarrín Other

EU-27 LatAm
Panama 15.5%
13.5% EU-27
11.2%
13.7%

Other Other Asia

LatAm ex-Japan Other Asia
China China
8.3% 6.9% ex-Japan
15.6%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 10.8% 8.0%

Moody’s: Caa3 Negative
S&P Global Ratings: SD N/A Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: RD N/A
Other
1.3%
Manufact. Food Other
Strengths Weaknesses Products
10.3% 3.0%
6.6%

Mineral
• Substantial oil and gas wealth • Dollarization limits scope to Fuels
11.5%
• Tourism potential adjust to external shocks

• Diverse climate enables a wide • Polarized political system
Food Exports Mineral Imports
49.8% Fuels
range of crops • High dependence on oil exports 36.9%
Manufact.
Agric. Products
Raw Mat. 75.2%
5.5%
ç

FOCUSECONOMICS Paraguay June 2020
Paraguay
Paraguay
• Available data shows the pandemic and associated containment measures
are causing considerable damage to the economy in the first half of the
year. After surging in January−February, economic activity contracted
in March, weighed down by negative performances of the services and
manufacturing sectors. Moreover, merchandise exports nosedived
in March−May, reflecting the sour external environment, while recent
figures show fiscal revenues are taking a severe hit as a consequence
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages of shriveling economic activity. On a more positive note, on 15 June,
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
the country progressed to the third stage of reopening, boding well for
Population (million): 7.0 7.3 7.6 the recovery ahead. According to the Central Bank and the Ministry of
GDP (USD bn): 38.4 37.9 44.5
economy, 25% of economic sectors should have resumed activity in the
GDP growth (%): 4.2 0.8 4.1 second phase, on top of the almost 70% of economic sectors already
Public Debt (% of GDP): 18.4 27.5 32.2 reactivated in phase one.
Inflation (%): 3.9 3.4 3.9
Current Account (% of GDP): 2.2 -0.9 0.0
External Debt (% of GDP): 41.7 46.3 46.6 • GDP will shrink this year as consumer spending and investment activity
are hammered by elevated uncertainty and containment measures. On
Massimo Bassetti
Economist top of this, vanishing external demand from key trading partners will hit the
external sector. A poor management of the health crisis in the region and
possible flare-ups of the pandemic cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics
panelists estimate the economy to contract 2.0% in 2020, which is down
14 6 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before expanding 4.7%
in 2021.
7 3
• In May, inflation slumped to 0.7% from 2.0% in April on falling prices for
food and oil products. Meanwhile, on 21 May, the Central Bank kept the key
0 0
rate unchanged at 1.25%. Inflation is expected to slow this year compared
2020 2021
to 2019 on the back of lower oil prices and contracting economic activity.
Paraguay
Latin America FocusEconomics panelists see inflation ending 2020 at 2.1% and 2021
World
-7
-3 at 3.0%.
GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021
Source: BCP. forecasts during the last 18 months.

15 5
Paraguay
Latin America
10 4
5 3
2020 2021
0 2
variation in %. forecasts during the last 18 months.
Source: BCP.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 36.1 36.0 38.9 40.4 38.2 36.5 39.1 41.7 44.5 47.3
GDP (PYG bn) 188,231 204,447 219,188 231,489 238,054 237,627 258,525 279,840 302,998 326,882
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -2.1 2.0 5.9 6.9 -6.6 -4.3 5.6 4.6 4.4 4.2
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.1 9.5 8.3 1.8 -2.9 -5.8 10.2 5.7 5.3 5.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -2.6 1.1 12.0 8.9 -0.9 -8.1 10.6 6.1 5.5 5.0
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 5.4 6.0 5.2 5.6 5.7 10.6 8.0 6.8 6.2 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 5.8 8.1 16.4 6.1 6.3 - - - - -
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.25 4.00 1.25 2.00 2.90 3.85 -
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, eop) 5,782 5,848 5,588 5,961 6,453 6,565 6,664 6,757 6,857 6,957
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, aop) 5,210 5,683 5,632 5,731 6,238 6,509 6,615 6,711 6,807 6,907
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.4 3.6 3.1 -0.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.1 1.3 1.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -15.3 7.9 11.9 2.5 -7.6 -18.6 15.8 13.1 10.5 8.0
International Reserves (USD bn) 6.2 7.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.7 -
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.2 8.8 8.4 7.4 7.8 9.2 8.2 7.6 7.3 -
External Debt (USD bn) 16.1 16.2 15.9 15.8 16.0 17.8 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.7
1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Public Debt | % of GDP 3 | Current Account | % of GDP
5 60 10
Paraguay
Latin America
0 40 5
-5 20 0
Paraguay
Latin America
-10 0 -5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP,
Banco Central del Paraguay), Ministry of Treasury (MH, Ministerio de Hacienda) and Refinitiv. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: MH.
2 Public sector debt as % of GDP. Source: MH.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: BCP.

Fact Sheet
General Data Paraguay in the Region

Official name: Republic of Paraguay Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Asunción (3.2m)
Other cities: Ciudad del Este (0.2m) Paraguay
Paraguay
1.2%
0.7%
Pedro Juan Caballero (0.1m)
Area (km2): 406,752
Population density (per km2, 2019): 17.6 27.1% 23.5%
Brazil
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 1.2 34.9%
Brazil
36.1%
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.9
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 6.0 Colombia
6.4%
Language: Spanish, Guaraní Argentina
7.5%
Measures: Metric system Argentina
8.6%
Colombia
Time: GMT-4 8.4%
Mexico Mexico
20.9% 24.7%
Economic Structure
100 100
80 80
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 546 Manufacturing Investment
60 60
Government
Consumption
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 60.1
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 7.2 20 20 Private
Services
Consumption
Transportation (2018) 0 0
Airports: 799
Railways (km): 30.0
Chief Ports: Asunción
Other
EU-27 U.S.A.
10.9%

10.4%
9.6%
18.0% Asia
ex-
EU-27
Japan Argentina
President: Mario Abdo Benítez
6.0% 8.1% 8.3%

Last elections: 22 April 2018 Russia
Other Asia
8.8%

ex-Japan

Exports Imports 8.1%
Central Bank President: José Cantero Sienra Chile
8.5% Brazil Brazil
32.6% 22.5%
China
Argentina
33.1%
24.1%
Moody’s: Ba1 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB+ Stable
Other Other
2.2% 1.6%
Manufact. Food
Strengths Weaknesses Products 8.8%
10.8%
Mineral

• Favorable conditions for • Vulnerability to commodity price Fuels
12.5%
agriculture swings
Mineral
• Commitment to structural • Dependence on neighboring Exports Fuels Imports
reforms economies 24.6%
Food
• Stable source of income from 62.4%
hydroelectric dams

Manufact.
Products
77.1%

FOCUSECONOMICS Uruguay June 2020
Uruguay
Outlook improves
Uruguay
• The economic impact from Covid-19 and associated containment

measures is expected to be considerable in the first half of this year. After
tumbling in March−April, exports recorded an even sharper contraction
in May, mainly due to evaporating demand from Argentina, Brazil and
China. Moreover, latest data shows real wages fell at a faster clip in April
on an annual basis, which is likely taking a toll on household spending.
In better news, businesses are gradually resuming activity, which bodes
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages well for the recovery ahead. Moreover, at end-May, the economy minister
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24 announced that the Inter-American Development Bank had granted the
Population (million): 3.5 3.5 3.6 country a USD 1.7 billion loan to cushion the impact of the pandemic. In
GDP (USD bn): 56.9 51.8 57.2
GDP per capita (USD): 16,290 14,677 16,045 the political arena, press reports indicate the government is planning to
GDP growth (%): 2.0 0.1 2.7 push ahead with boosting market competition once the health crisis is
Public Debt (% of GDP): 61.9 70.2 72.1 over.
Inflation (%): 7.8 8.5 7.1
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.2 0.0 -0.3
• GDP is set to fall this year as coronavirus and measures to contain its
spread will weigh on the country’s main trading partners, depressing
Massimo Bassetti
demand from abroad and investment activity domestically. Moreover,
Economist
already frail fiscal metrics will deteriorate. A poor handling of the pandemic
in the region poses the main downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts
see the economy contracting 3.7% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage
points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the economy is seen expanding
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts 3.9%.
10 6
• Inflation increased from 10.9% in April to 11.1% in May, logging the

5 3
highest reading since October 2003. Therefore, inflation rose further
above the upper bound of the Central Bank’s 3.0%–7.0% target range. FX
0 0
pass-through and rising food prices have fueled upside price pressures
-5 -3
recently. Going forward, a weak peso will continue stoking inflation.
2020 2021 FocusEconomics analysts see inflation ending 2020 at 9.9% and 2021
-10 -6 at 7.8%.
2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months. • At its monetary policy meeting on 16 April, the Central Bank lowered its
target for the growth rate of the M1+ money supply in Q2 to 3.0%-5.0%
from Q1’s target of 6.0%–8.0%. At the same time, the Bank maintained
its inflation target range for the next 24 months at 3.0%–7.0%, “or also at
Inflation Change in CPI forecasts more stringent levels”. The next meeting is scheduled for July.
11 10
Uruguay
Latin America
2020 2021
• On 12 June, the Uruguayan peso ended the day at 43.0 per USD,
9
9
appreciating 1.5% from the same day in May. The currency thus recovered
some of the ground lost this year on the back of rising risk appetite from
8
investors. Going forward, the peso is projected to weaken somewhat
7
7
owing to elevated inflation and the economic downturn. FocusEconomics
panelists project the UYU to end 2020 at 44.2 per USD and 2021 at 45.9
5 6 per USD.

REAL SECTOR | Historic blow to industrial output amid containment

measures in April
Industrial production nosedived 19.3% year-on-year in April (March: +4.7%
Industrial Production | variation in %
yoy). The result marked the weakest reading since September 2017.
25.0
Year-on-year Industrial production excluding refinery output tumbled 22.2% year-on-year

Annual average in April, contrasting March’s 2.1% rise. Looking at a breakdown of the sub-
12.5
components, a sharp fall in the production of food products and beverage led
the overall slump.
0.0
% Meanwhile, the trend deteriorated significantly, with the annual average

-12.5 variation of industrial production coming in at minus 2.3% in April, down from
March’s minus 0.7%.
-25.0
The analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics for this month’s LatinFocus
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production
in %.
Consensus Forecast see industrial production contracting 3.3% in 2020,
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations. which is up 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and increasing
3.2% in 2021.
Our panelists see GDP falling 3.7% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points
from last month’s forecast, and expanding 3.9% in 2021.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation at over 17-year high in May

Consumer prices increased 0.6% from a month earlier in May, decelerating
from the 2.0% jump recorded in April. A breakdown provided by the Statistical
4 12
Institute showed that 9 out of the 12 sub-components saw an increase in
prices, led by surging prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, and a
sizable increase in prices for clothing and footwear. On the other hand, prices
2 10
for education declined.
% %
0 8
Meanwhile, inflation climbed from 10.9% in April to 11.1% in May, logging the
highest reading since October 2003. Therefore, inflation rose further above
Month-on-moth (left scale) the upper bound of the Central Bank’s 3.0%–7.0% target range. Lastly, annual
-2
6
average inflation rose from 8.4% in April to 8.7% in May, the highest reading
in over three years.
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. Expectations
of monthly variations of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and Uruguay Central Bank (BCU). Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project
inflation to end 2020 at 9.9%, which is up 0.9 percentage points, and 2021 at
7.8%.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 54.0 52.1 60.1 58.5 56.1 48.5 50.9 53.8 57.2 60.7
GDP (UYU bn) 1,456 1,589 1,707 1,831 1,976 2,069 2,289 2,531 2,807 3,086
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 9.4 9.2 7.4 7.3 7.9 4.7 10.6 10.6 10.9 9.9
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -2.0 -0.4 0.7 2.4 -0.1 -3.7 3.7 3.4 2.9 2.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.5 0.1 4.6 1.5 0.5 -3.8 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.2 2.9 -0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -9.2 -1.6 -15.7 -2.7 1.4 -5.6 6.9 5.5 4.1 2.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.6 -0.2 6.9 -4.8 1.2 -4.3 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -7.3 -6.2 0.5 -2.0 0.2 -5.0 4.9 4.0 3.7 3.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.1 0.3 -11.1 11.5 -1.5 -3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %) 5.6 8.4 15.0 8.9 5.1 - - - - -
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 6.8 3.4 1.7 9.7 12.8 12.1 8.9 7.5 6.4 5.4
Average Deposit Rate (%, aop) 6.94 6.58 5.56 5.30 5.86 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 29.9 29.3 28.8 32.4 37.3 44.2 45.9 48.1 50.0 51.8
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, aop) 27.3 30.1 28.7 30.7 35.2 42.7 45.0 47.0 49.1 50.9
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.9 -0.1 0.7 0.1 0.7 -0.1 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.9 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 - - - - - -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.1 0.2 -2.1 -7.6 -4.8 -1.9 1.1 8.0 5.5 4.2
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 4.1 4.3 -7.9 -1.8 3.8 -3.0 1.0 4.7 -19.3 -
Unemployment (% of active population) 9.1 9.5 8.8 9.2 8.5 8.5 10.5 10.1 - -
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %) 7.9 11.8 7.4 8.4 5.1 3.2 11.9 9.7 6.9 -

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance
1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17-Q4 21 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
8 14 Real GDP Fiscal Balance

Uruguay
Latin America
var. in % % of GDP
World Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021
4 7 Capital Economics -6.0 3.0 -4.0 -3.5
CINVE -4.6 6.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -3.5 4.0 -5.2 -2.7
0 0 DuckerFrontier -4.1 3.9 - -
EIU -5.0 3.0 -7.0 -5.4
Equipos Consultores -3.7 3.4 - -
-4 -7 Euromonitor Int. -3.0 5.0 - -
Uruguay Fitch Solutions -1.1 2.8 - -
Latin America
HSBC -3.5 4.0 - -
World
-8 -14 Iecon - UdelaR -4.0 3.5 - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Itaú Unibanco -3.6 4.1 -7.0 -4.0
JPMorgan -2.5 3.6 - -
Julius Baer -3.0 4.5 - -
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Moody's Analytics -6.4 4.3 -8.6 -5.6
Oikos -2.3 1.7 - -
4 8
Oxford Economics -3.1 4.4 - -
República AFAP -3.9 4.8 - -
Summary
Minimum -6.4 1.7 -8.6 -5.6
0 4
Maximum -1.1 6.0 -4.0 -2.7
Median -3.6 4.0 -7.0 -4.0
Consensus -3.7 3.9 -6.4 -4.2
History
-4 0 30 days ago -3.9 4.4 -6.5 -4.0
Maximum Maximum 60 days ago -2.4 3.5 -5.0 -3.7
Consensus Consensus 90 days ago 1.4 2.1 -3.1 -2.8
Minimum Minimum Additional Forecasts
-8 -4 IMF (Apr. 2020) -3.0 5.0 - -
World Bank (June 2020) -3.7 4.6 - -
CEPAL (May 2020) -4.0 - - -
5 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
18 0.0
Uruguay
Latin America
15 -2.5
12 -5.0
9 -7.5
Uruguay
Latin America
6 -10.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources

7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
12 -2 General:
2020 2021 Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector
11 -3 data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de
Estadística) and the Central Bank (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay). See
below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 -4
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCU.
2 Quarterly GDP (non-seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
9 -5 Source: BCU.
8 -6 5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.
2020 2021
6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCU.
7 Unemployment, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18
7 -7 months.
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2020
and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate
9 | Inflation | 2000-2024 | in % 10 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in % Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate
28 11 CPI Exchange Rate

Uruguay variation in % UYU per USD
Uruguay
Latin America Latin America Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021
21 Capital Economics - - 43.0 40.0
9 CINVE 10.1 7.8 - -
14 DuckerFrontier - - - -
EIU 9.2 7.1 41.7 42.7
7 Equipos Consultores 10.6 8.3 44.8 48.2
7 Euromonitor Int. - - - -
HSBC 8.0 7.0 43.3 43.3
0 5 Iecon - UdelaR 11.0 7.5 43.7 44.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Itaú Unibanco 10.5 9.0 45.0 48.0
JPMorgan 8.2 5.7 43.0 -
Julius Baer - - - -
11 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst 12 | Inflation 2021 | evolution of fcst Moody's Analytics - - 46.8 49.6
Oikos 10.7 8.8 45.0 49.0
12 10
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus República AFAP 9.9 7.8 - -
Minimum Minimum Summary
10
Minimum 8.0 5.7 41.7 40.0
8
Maximum 11.0 9.0 46.8 49.6
Median 10.1 7.8 44.3 46.7
8 Consensus 9.9 7.8 44.2 45.9
History
6 30 days ago 9.0 7.3 44.7 47.0
6 60 days ago 9.4 7.6 45.1 46.4
90 days ago 7.9 7.4 40.7 42.9
4 4 IMF (Apr. 2020) 8.8 7.9 - -
World Bank (Apr. 2020) 10.0 8.0 - -
13 | Exchange Rate | UYU per USD 14 | Current Account | % of GDP
60 3
Uruguay
Latin America
50
0
40
30
-3
20
Notes and sources

10 -6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated.
15 | UYU per USD | evol. of fcst 16 | Current Account | evol. of fcst The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. Long-term
forecasts (2022-2024) for end-of period indicators are based on both end-
50 1 of-period and average-of-period projections. All monetary and external
sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional
2020 2021 2020 2021 de Estadística), the Central Bank (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay), IMF
47 (International Financial Statistics) and Refinitiv. See below for details.
0
44 9 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
Source: INE.
10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
41 (eop). Source: INE.
-1 11 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
38 13 Exchange rate, UYU per USD (eop). Source: Refinitiv.
14 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
15 Exchange rate, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18
35 -2 months.
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 16 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021

Fact Sheet
General Data Uruguay in the Region

Official name: Oriental Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Uruguay
Capital: Montevideo (1.7 m) Uruguay
Uruguay
0.6%
1.1%
Other cities: Canelones (0.4 m)
Maldonado (0.1 m)
Area (km2): 176,215 Other
Other
Population (million, 2019 est.): 3.5 27.7%
Brazil
23.2%
Population density (per km2, 2019): 20.0 34.9% Brazil

36.1%
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.9 Colombia
6.4%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 1.3 Argentina
7.5% Argentina
Language: Spanish 8.6%
Colombia
Mexico
Time: GMT-3 20.9%
Mexico
24.7%
Economic Structure
100 120
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 28.3 Agriculture 100 Net Exports
80
Energy (2017) 80
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 123 Manufacturing Investment

60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 220 60

40 Government
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2.0 20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 49.1 20 Private
Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 6.7 0 Consumption
0 -20
Airports: 133
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Montevideo
Other
EU-27 U.S.A.
7.2%

Angola
6.3%
EU-27

9.7% 11.0%
President: Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou

Other Asia
Last elections: 24 November 2019 37.8%
Other
ex-Japan
Argentina
Next elections: 2024 China 6.3%
Exports 27.5% 11.0%
Imports
Central Bank Govenor: Diego Labat
China
19.5%
Brazil

Other 21.1%
Brazil Other
LatAm
12.8% LatAm
11.3%

Moody’s: Baa2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BBB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Negative Other
1.6%
Mineral
Fuels Other
Strengths Weaknesses Manufact. 12.3% 16.4%
Products
21.6%
• Stable political environment • Highly dollarized economy
• Strong public institutions • Dependence on neighboring

• Abundant natural resources economies Exports Imports
Agric.
• Small domestic market Food Raw Mat.
62.4% 14.5%
Manufact.
Products
. 71.3%

FOCUSECONOMICS
Notes and Statements

Notes June 2020
PUBLICATION NOTE COPYRIGHT NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of © Copyright 2020 FocusEconomics S.L.U. Duplication,
economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any
monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise
the annual figures due to different forecast panels. without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly
prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved
under International Copyright Conventions.
The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates and
the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication
a monthly basis. Weights are Weights are based on Consensus of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or
Forecasts for nominal GDP (USD billion). FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:
FocusEconomics S.L.U.
The regional aggregates include the following countries: Gran Via 657
E-08010 Barcelona
Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Spain
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, tel: +34 932 651 040
fax: +34 932 650 804
El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico,
e-mail: info@focus-economics.com
Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and web: http://www.focus-economics.com
Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.
Andean Community (4 countries): Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador
and Peru.
Central America and Caribbean (12 countries): Belize, Costa
Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti,
Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and
Trinidad and Tobago.
Mercosur (5 countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay
and Venezuela.
World: 130 countries, comprising around 98% of global output.
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and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate,
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ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR KEY INDICATORS IN 131 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS
MAJOR ECONOMIES G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Euro area, France, Germany & Italy),
Switzerland and overview of the BRIC countries
EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania,
Slovakia and Slovenia
CIS PLUS COUNTRIES Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia,
Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Turkey
EAST & SOUTH ASIA Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Australia and New
Zealand
ASEAN ECONOMIES Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam,
Australia and New Zealand
LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela
CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras,
Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique,
Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
REAL SECTOR GDP per capita, Economic Growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate,
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money, Inflation Rate, Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, International Reserves and External Debt
PRICE FORECASTS FOR 34 COMMODITIES IN 4 MAIN GROUPS

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Coking Coal, Gasoil (European market), Gasoline (U.S. benchmark), Natural Gas,
Thermal Coal and Uranium
BASE METALS Alumina, Aluminium, Cobalt, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead, Molybedenum, Nickel, Steel (European and U.S.
markets), Tin and Zinc
PRECIOUS METALS Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum
AGRICULTURAL Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Cotton, Palm oil, Soybeans, Sugar, Rice, Wheat and Wool
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LATINFOCUS

ANGELA BOUZANIS WILLIAM O’CONNELL JOSÉ DANIEL MARÍN

NICOLAS J. AGUILAR EDWARD GARDNER JOAN ARGILAGÓS

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

2018 2019 2020 2021

2018 2019 2020 2021

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, % of GDP

Note: Latin America, Mercosur and World estimates exclude Venezuela.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |2

Economic Outlook GDP Variation in % Change in Forecast

ARGENTINA | 2020: -8.8%

BRAZIL | 2020: -6.3%

CHILE | 2020: -4.4%

COLOMBIA | 2020: -4.2%

MEXICO | 2020: -7.5%

PERU | 2020: -8.3%

Note: Change in forecast refers to 2020.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |3

Inflation Inflation in % Change in Forecast

ARGENTINA | 2020: 45.4%

BRAZIL | 2020: 1.9%

CHILE | 2020: 2.6%

is expected to remain largely subdued amid downbeat domestic 2021 Jun-20

COLOMBIA | 2020: 2.6%

pressures in check ahead. 2021 Jun-20

MEXICO | 2020: 2.9%

PERU | 2020: 1.2%

suppress upward price pressures. 2021 Jun-20

Note: Change in forecast refers to 2020.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |4

Monetary Policy Interest rate in % Change in Forecast

authorities are scheduled to meet later in June. Overall, regulators

ARGENTINA | 2020: 38.01%

moderated in May following a record-high in April. The BCRA is Jun-20

BRAZIL | 2020: 2.20%

CHILE | 2020: 0.49%

rate unchanged at 0.50%. Meanwhile, the unconventional liquidity 2019 Apr-20

COLOMBIA | 2020: 2.27%

contained inflation and depressed activity. 2021 Jun-20

MEXICO | 2020: 4.38%

PERU | 2020: 0.25%

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |5

Exchange Rate Variation in % Change in Forecast

ARGENTINA | 2020: -32.4%

BRAZIL | 2020: -24.4%

CHILE | 2020: -6.3%

the peso weakening as uncertainties regarding the constitutional 2021 Jun-20

COLOMBIA | 2020: -14.0%

MEXICO | 2020: -17.2%

coronavirus-inflicted losses in March on the back of a weaker 2019 Apr-20

PERU | 2020: -3.1%

monetary policy outweighed recovering interest in emerging- 2019 Apr-20

Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |6

Year-on-year (right scale)

from the Covid-19 pandemic and associated social distancing