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CH 4 Forecast
CH 4 Forecast
CH 4 Forecast
Chapter 4
Forecasting
• Sales forecasts are the starting point for all other forecasts
Forecast Uses
Why forecasting?
Common Features
• Assumes causal system.
past ==> future
• Forecasts rarely perfect because of
randomness.
• Forecasts more accurate for I see that you will
get an A this quarter.
groups vs. individuals
• Forecast accuracy decreases
as time horizon increases.
“The forecast”
Types of Forecasts
Qualitative and Quantitative
i. Qualitative methods :consist mainly of subjective inputs.
It based on Judgmental of forecaster.
I.Qualitative(Judgmental Forecasts)
• Consumer surveys=asking preference.
• Delphi method= used to develop consumers of expert
opinion.
• Executive opinions
– Opinions of managers and staff
• Sales force.
The sales staff is often a good source of information because
of its direct contact with customers and experience.
• Jury of executive opinions
A small group of upper-level managers may meet and
collectively develop a forecast
Relatively quick
‘Group-think Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
3-10 Forecasting
Forecast Variations
Figure 3-1
Irregular
variation
Trend
cycle
Cycles
90
89
88
Seasonal variations
• Naïve
• Simple Moving Average
• Weighted Moving Average
• Exponential Smoothing
• Linear Regression
a. Naïve Forecast
• It assumes demand in the next period is equal to demand in
the most recent period. i.e., the forecast for any period
equals the previous period's actual value.
Naïve Forecast…
Its Features
Simple to use.
Virtually no cost.
Data analysis is non existent.
Easily understandable.
Cannot provide high accuracy.
Yi
M An i 1
n
• where: i = refers to the most recent period (i = 1, 2, 3, …, n)
n = number of periods in the moving average
yi = actual value with period i
MAn = moving average of the most recent n actual forecast
Moving Average
Eg1.n - number of periods (this example uses 4)
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Demand 74 90 100 60 80 90
Forecast 81 82.5 82.5
Moving Average…
Eg2 . 1.Compute a three period moving average forecast
for period six given demand for shipping a product for
the last five periods. (Class work)
Period Age Demand
1 5 42
2 4 40
3 3 43
4 2 40
5 1 41
…
Solution
MA3 = (41 + 40 + 43)/3 = 41.33
Moving Average…
• MA3 =
39 41 40
40
3
Solution ?
d. Exponential Smoothing
• Simpler equation, equivalent to WMA
a – exponential smoothing parameter (0< a<1
• Ft Ft 1 a ( At 1 Ft 1 )
a 0.1
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Average
Demand 74 90 100 60
Forecast 72
Exponential Smoothing…
• SOLUTION
•
Ft Ft 1 a ( At 1 Ft 1 )
a 0.1
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Average
Demand 74 90 100 60
Forecast 72 72.2 73.98
Yt = a + bt
a
0 1 2 3 4 5 t
• b is the line slope.
Calculating a & b
n (ty) - t y
b =
n t 2 - ( t) 2
y - b t
a =
n
t y
Week t2 Sales ty
1 1 150 150
2 4 157 314
3 9 162 486
4 16 166 664
5 25 177 885
t = 15 t2 = 55 y = 812 ty = 2499
( t)2 = 225
812 - 6.3(15)
a = = 143.5
5
y = 143.5 + 6.3t
Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
3-34 Forecasting
Forecast Accuracy
• Forecast error
– difference between forecast and actual demand
– MAD
• mean absolute deviation
– MAPD
• mean absolute percent deviation
– Cumulative error
– Average error or bias
At - Ft
MAD = n
where
t = period number
At = demand in period t
Ft = forecast for period t
n = total number of periods
= absolute value
MAD Example
PERIOD DEMAND, At Ft (a =0.3) (At - Ft) |At - Ft|
1 37 37.00 – –
2 40 37.00 3.00 3.00
3 41 37.90 3.10 3.10
4 37 38.83 -1.83 1.83
5 45 38.28 6.72 6.72
6 50 40.29 9.69 9.69
7 43 43.20 -0.20 0.20
8 47 43.14 3.86 3.86
9 56 44.30 11.70 11.70
10 52 47.81 4.19 4.19 MAD =
11 55 49.06 5.94 5.94
12 54 50.84 3.15 3.15
=
557 49.31 53.39
Forecast Control
• Tracking signal
– monitors the forecast to see if it is biased high
or low.
(At - Ft) E
Tracking signal = =
MAD MAD
1 37 37.00 – – – –
2 40 37.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 1.00
3 41 37.90 3.10 6.10 3.05 2.00
4 37 38.83 -1.83 4.27 2.64 1.62
5 45 38.28 6.72 10.99 3.66 3.00
6 50 40.29 9.69 20.68 4.87 4.25
7 43 43.20 -0.20 20.48 4.09 5.01
8 47 43.14 3.86 24.34 4.06 6.00 Tracki
9 56 44.30 11.70 36.04 5.01 7.19
10 52 47.81 4.19 40.23 4.92 8.18
11 55 49.06 5.94 46.17 5.02 9.20 TS
12 54 50.84 3.15 49.32 4.85 10.17
End Notes
Ch-3 end!
Thank you !