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Oregon Drug Decrim State Analyses
Oregon Drug Decrim State Analyses
CJC estimates that if IP44 were to pass, a substantial reduction in the number of felony and
misdemeanor convictions for PCS would follow. The total number of convictions for PCS would
fall from 4,057 to 378, a difference of 3,679, or nearly 91%. This reduction would also be
substantial for all racial groups, ranging from 82.9% for Asian Oregonians to approximately 94%
for Native and Black Oregonians. This means that approximately 1,800 fewer Oregonians per
year are estimated to be convicted of felony PCS and nearly 1,900 fewer convicted of
misdemeanor PCS. Prior academic research suggests this drop in convictions will result in fewer
collateral consequences stemming from criminal justice system involvement.
Beyond the reductions described above, the changes proposed by IP44 would also lead to a
reduction in racial disparities for PCS convictions at both the misdemeanor and felony level.
Preliminary discussion draft
Using a disparity metric called the Raw Differential Representation, CJC estimates that racial
disparities for misdemeanor and felony PCS convictions will be narrowed substantially if IP44
passes.
While data is available to estimate the possible effect of IP44 on individuals convicted of PCS,
data concerning victims of individuals convicted of drug possession are not available. Data from
the Oregon Uniform Crime Reporting Program indicates that from January to May 2020, there
were 4,796 distinct victims of all drug related crimes (this includes PCS, but also all other drug
related offenses). Unfortunately, while other demographic information is available from this
source, information on victim race/ethnicity is not.
IP 44 Racial and Ethnic Impact Statement
Oregon Criminal Justice Commission
16 July 2020
Background
The Oregon Criminal Justice Commission (CJC) received a written request from a member of
the Legislative Assembly from each major political party requesting a racial and ethnic impact
statement pursuant to ORS 137.685 for a state measure that is related to crime and likely to have
an effect on the criminal justice system. This request concerns ballot initiative IP 44, titled the
Drug Addiction Treatment and Recovery Act1.
This statement describes the racial and ethnic impact to the criminal offender population that
includes individuals convicted of a felony or misdemeanor level drug possession offense. There
are several components of IP 44 that are not related to crime or the criminal justice system, and
this statement does not include the racial and ethnic impact of those components. As such, the
primary focus of this analysis centers on Sections 11 through 22 of the initiative.
IP 44 changes the sentencing for unlawful possession of controlled substances (PCS) statutes. As
shown in Table 1, under current law, PCS convictions are misdemeanors, except in certain
circumstances in which they are felonies, including when the subject has a prior felony
conviction, has two or more prior PCS convictions, possesses a substantial quantity, or is
convicted of a commercial drug offense. IP 44 changes PCS convictions to violations except in
1
http://oregonvotes.org/irr/2020/044text.pdf
1
certain circumstances including when the subject possesses a substantial quantity, which is a
misdemeanor, or is convicted of a commercial drug offense, which is a felony.
As discussed in greater detail below, the methodology and data sources used for this statement
mirror previous analyses regarding possession of controlled substances conducted by the CJC.
House Bill 2355 (2017) required CJC to study the effect of the reduction in possession penalties
on the criminal justice system and the composition of convicted offenders2. CJC used data from
the Department of Corrections (DOC) that includes felony and misdemeanor convictions for
drug possession to compile that report.
Finally, this statement is required to show an estimate of the racial and ethnic composition of the
crime victims who may be affected by the state measure. Unfortunately, a comprehensive data
source on victims of individuals convicted of drug possession crimes is not available. The
Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program housed at Oregon State Police collects data on
reported crime from law enforcement agencies in the state. The UCR Program recently released
the Oregon Crime Data Dashboards3, which displays crimes reported to law enforcement from
January to May 2020. The dashboard provides summary level data on a publicly available
website that can be filtered by several variables. Under the Victims Dashboard, the data can be
filtered by drug/narcotic offenses. This is more broadly defined than drug possession offenses,
but is used here for example purposes. From January to May 2020, 4,796 distinct victims are
displayed. The victim type for all offenses is displayed as society/public. The victim
demographics that would be displayed by age, sex, and race are not available for this crime type.
2
https://www.oregon.gov/cjc/CJC%20Document%20Library/2019PCSReport.pdf
3
https://www.oregon.gov/osp/Pages/Uniform-Crime-Reporting-Data.aspx
4
While PCS charges often accompany other felony charges, the CJC restricts the analysis to instances where PCS
was the only or most serious charge because it is in those cases that CJC can best estimate the effects that IP 44
could have on the offender population. It is possible that in cases where PCS charges co-occur with other felonies,
such as property or other statutory crimes, that sentencing outcomes could be different should IP 44 go into effect.
However, these cases will likely result in a criminal conviction due to the determining factor of the other, more
serious felonies.
2
Estimated Changes to PCS Population
Under IP 44, convictions for commercial drug offenses would remain felonies. To identify those
offenders in 2019, CJC assumes that current felony drug PCS convictions showing a crime
category 6 or higher on the sentencing guidelines grid would remain felonies. Of the total 1,918
felony convictions in 2019, five percent, or 102 total convictions, would be estimated to remain
felonies under IP 44. A breakdown by race/ethnicity for these felonies is reported in the third
column of Table 3.
CJC assumes that 14 percent of felony PCS convictions, which amounts to 276, were for
possession of a substantial quantity of narcotics, which under IP 44 would be misdemeanors. To
arrive at this estimation, CJC identified the felony convictions in 2019 that were not commercial
drug offenses but also were not convictions for individuals with either a felony record or a
criminal history containing two or more prior PCS convictions. A breakdown by race/ethnicity
for these convictions is reported in the second column of Table 3. Finally, all remaining
convictions under IP 44 would be violations and would not be supervised or included in the DOC
population.
Comparing Tables 2 and 3 provides an initial understanding of the magnitude of the change that
could be ushered in by the passage of IP 44. As shown in column five of Table 3, in total CJC
estimates that convictions for PCS would be reduced by 3,679, or 90.7 percent. When broken
down by race, the reduction in convictions overall ranges from 82.9 percent for Asian
Oregonians to almost 94 percent for Black Oregonians.
To further evaluate the racial and ethnic impact of this sentencing change, CJC employed a
disproportionality metric known as the Raw Differential Representation, or RDR.5 Substantively,
the RDR represents the reduction in convictions that would be required to reach parity with
white individuals given population differences across different races/ethnicities. A positive RDR
indicates a minority racial/ethnic minority is overrepresented in the system compared to white
individuals, whereas a negative RDR indicates a racial/ethnic minority is underrepresented in the
system compared to white individuals. The goal, when assessing the RDR, is for each
racial/ethnic group to be as close to white individuals as possible, as this would indicate that the
group is neither underrepresented nor overrepresented compared to the baseline (white) group.
5
https://www.oregon.gov/cjc/CJC%20Document%20Library/2019PCSReport.pdf
3
Figure 1 displays the RDRs for 2019 felony convictions and the estimated felony convictions
under IP 44. For 2019 felony convictions, there would need to be 24 fewer convictions for Black
individuals to reach parity with white individuals. Under the estimated impact of IP 44, the RDR
drops to one. Asian individuals are underrepresented compared to white individuals in 2019
convictions and under the estimated impact of IP 44, though to a lesser extent under IP 44. 2019
felony convictions for Hispanic individuals show a negative RDR, indicating that 85 additional
Hispanic individuals would need to be convicted to achieve parity with white individuals. Under
the estimated impact of IP 44, Hispanic individuals would instead be overrepresented by five.
The RDR for Native Americans is the same under 2019 convictions and under the estimated
impact of IP 44. The RDR analysis indicates that the estimated impact of IP 44 would be a
decrease in overrepresentation of Black individuals in felony convictions. In general, Figure 1
shows that RDRs are closer to zero with the impact of IP 44, indicating a decrease in disparity.
-81 Asian
-4
Black 24
1
-85 Hispanic
5
Native American 1
1
Figure 2 displays the RDRs for 2019 misdemeanor convictions and the estimated misdemeanor
convictions under IP 44. For 2019 misdemeanor convictions, there would need to be 75 fewer
convictions for Black individuals to reach parity with white individuals. Under the estimated
impact of IP 44, that RDR drops to three. The RDR for 2019 misdemeanor convictions indicates
that Asian and Hispanic individuals are both underrepresented in convictions compared to white
individuals, and that remains true under IP 44 for Asian individuals. One fewer Hispanic
individual would need to be convicted of a misdemeanor under IP 44 in order to reach parity
with white individuals. Native American individuals were moderately overrepresented in 2019
convictions (by one), and under the estimated impact of IP 44 would be moderately
underrepresented compared to whites (by two). The RDR analysis indicates that IP 44 would
decrease overrepresentation of Black and Native American individuals in misdemeanor
convictions compared to white individuals.
4
Figure 2. 2019 Misdemeanor Conviction RDRs
-92
-9 Asian
75
Black 3
-68
1 Hispanic
Native American 1
-2
In conclusion, the RDRs for felony and misdemeanor convictions are closer to zero with the
impact of IP 44. For Black individuals, the RDR drops to one for misdemeanor convictions and
three for felony convictions. For Hispanic individuals, the RDR changes from an
underrepresentation in convictions, to a value of one for misdemeanor convictions and five for
felony convictions. The RDR for Native Americans is unchanged for felony convictions at one,
and drops to negative two for misdemeanor convictions. As the RDRs trend to zero, this
indicates a decrease in disparity for individuals convicted of misdemeanor and felony PCS. In
addition, approximately 1,800 fewer Oregonians per year are estimated to be convicted of felony
PCS and nearly 1,900 fewer convicted of misdemeanor PCS. Prior research suggests this drop in
convictions will result in fewer collateral consequences stemming from criminal justice system
involvement (Ewald and Uggen, 2012)6.
6
Ewald, A., and Uggen, C. 2012. “The Collateral Effects of Imprisonment on Prisoners, Their Families, and
Communities.” In J. Petersilia & K. Reitz (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook on Sentencing and Corrections (pp. 83-
103). New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
5
Preliminary Discussion draft
Comments
Initiative Petition 44 directs the Oregon Health Authority (OHA) to establish statewide
Addiction Recovery Centers (ARCs) and provide community access to care grants, changes
the distribution of marijuana tax revenues and reduces drug penalties for possession of some
drugs. The measure has two primary components: redistribution of marijuana revenues to
fund ARCs and Community Access to Care grants and impacts related to the
decriminalization of certain drug offenses.
• No General Fund is appropriated by the legislature to fund the Drug Treatment and
Recovery Services Fund.
• The Criminal Justice Commission (CJC) estimated the number of probation
supervision and/or incarceration days saved by the Department of Corrections (DOC)
due to drug penalties becoming violations rather than more serious offenses. The daily
rate is assumed to be $12.067 per day, per offender. It is assumed to be a General
Fund savings.
• OHA provided the estimated expenditures related to setting up the Oversight and
Accountability Council and ARCs. It aligned its 2019-21 expenditures to correspond
to the minimum amount of initial funding to the Drug Treatment and Recovery
Services Fund, which is $57 million.
• The cap on quarterly distributions from the Oregon Marijuana Account available in
aggregate to cities, counties, the State School Fund, the State Policy Account and non-
ARC related OHA programs is $11.25 million per quarter.
• OHA non-ARC programs offering mental health, alcohol and drug abuse prevention,
early intervention and treatment services programs are assumed to receive less
marijuana revenue funding.
• The State School Fund currently receives a 40% distribution from the Oregon
Marijuana Account. The measure will reduce the distribution dollar amounts due to a
cap on the quarterly distribution amounts. The measure will not reduce State School
Fund expenditures and it is assumed that lost revenue will need to be funded by the
General Fund.
Revenue received by the Drug Treatment and Recovery Services Fund will be used for the
following purposes: 1) creation and administration of the Oversight and Accountability
Council, 2) facility start-up costs for ARCs, 3) ongoing operational costs for ARCs, 4) a
temporary hotline to serve Oregonians before ARCs are operational, 5) Community Access to
Care grants, and 6) costs to comply with future Secretary of State audit requests. Total
expenditures for the 2019-21 biennium are estimated at $57.3 million. Total expenditures for
the 2021-23 biennium are estimated to range from $201 million to $207 million. Expenditures
are expected to align with available revenue streams funding the Drug Treatment and
Recovery Services Fund.
The measure directs ARCs to provide addiction and recovery services to any Oregon resident
who requests them. ARCs will conduct an assessment of a client’s medical, behavioral or
other needs and determine what acute care is requested, as well as connect the client to
appropriate services for both acute and non-acute conditions in an evidence-informed, trauma-
informed, culturally responsive manner.
Initial facility ARC start-up costs and temporary hotline costs are one-time costs. All other
costs are ongoing. ARC annual costs are for running the facilities in a 24/7/365 manner and
include staffing and overhead costs. A temporary telephone ARC will be established by
February 1, 2021 to serve Oregonians as permanent ARCs are established in CCO service
areas. Community Access to Care grants are separate from ARC funding and are for
substance use disorder treatment, peer support and recovery services, permanent supportive
housing, and harm reduction interventions. Either governmental or community based
organizations are eligible for Community Access to Care grant awards.
Although the amount of marijuana revenue that is distributed to the State School Fund will be
reduced, the measure will not reduce State School Fund expenditures and lost revenue is
assumed to be funded by the General Fund.
The State Police Account, which funds the Oregon State Patrol (OSP), will receive less
marijuana revenue. The 2019-21 biennial reduction is projected at $6.5 million and the 2021-
23 estimated reduction is $27.4 million. In the current biennium, State Police Account funds
are used in the Criminal Investigation Division. Future legislative direction will determine
how to implement the loss of revenue related to this measure.
OHA will experience a reduction in marijuana revenue as funds are diverted from its Mental
Health, Alcoholism and Drug Services and its Alcohol and Drug Abuse Prevention and
Intervention programs by $10.7 million in the 2019-21 biennium and $45.6 million in the
2021-23 biennium. There may be an overlap in services offered between its existing programs
and ARCs that could potentially minimize reductions in service delivery.
the 2021-23 biennium. The amounts transferred to the Drug Treatment and Recovery Services
Fund will be available to fund ARC expenditures, for the same purposes described above.
OHA is directed to administer grants to fund the Addiction Recovery Centers (ARCs), which
will offer 24 hour access to care every day of the year starting October 1, 2021. The grants
will be awarded to ARCs for operational expenses as well as to organizations providing
substance use disorder treatment, peer support and recovery services, permanent supportive
housing, and harm reduction interventions to be provided free of charge to the recipient of the
services.
The initiative requires the Legislature to provide $57 million in annual funding (with
increases for inflation) for the fund. Marijuana revenue is estimated at $61.1 million in 2019-
21 and $182.4 million in 2021-23, which should be sufficient to meet this requirement.
The initiative reduces the marijuana revenue distribution to cities and counties. The total
reduction is $8.6 million in 2019-21 and $36.4 million in 2021-23.
OHA is directed to administer grants to fund the Addiction Recovery Centers (ARCs), which
will offer 24 hour access to care every day of the year starting October 1, 2021. The grants will
be awarded to ARCs for operational expenses as well as to organizations providing substance use
disorder treatment, peer support and recovery services, permanent supportive housing, and harm
reduction interventions to be provided free of charge to the recipient of the services.
The initiative requires the Legislature to provide $57 million in annual funding (with increases
for inflation) for the DTRSF. Marijuana revenue estimated at $61.1 million in 2019-21 and
$182.4 million in 2021-23 should be sufficient to meet this requirement.
The initiative reduces the marijuana revenue distribution to cities and counties. The total
reduction is $8.6 million in 2019-21 and $36.4 million in 2021-23.
2021-23. This will reduce revenue transferred from the Department of Corrections for local
government community corrections by $0.3 million in 2019-21 and $24.5 million in 2021-23.
Certification:
We, the undersigned, hereby certify that, pursuant to ORS 250.127(3), we have prepared the
statement described under “Estimate of Financial Impact.”
7/13/2020
__________________________________________ __________________
Bev Clarno, Secretary of State Date
7/8/2020
__________________________________________ __________________
Tobias Read, State Treasurer Date
7/8/2020
__________________________________________ __________________
Katy Coba, Director, Date
Department of Administrative Services
7/8/2020
__________________________________________ __________________
Satish Upadhyay, Interim Director, Date
Department of Revenue
7/9/2020
__________________________________________ __________________
Tim Collier, City, County, or District representative Date
LC 296-EXPLAN
(IRR 44, 2020)
6/3/20 (SCT/ps)
1 Explanation
2 By the Legislative Counsel Committee pursuant to ORS 251.225.
3
4 Ballot Measure XX mandates the establishment of at least one addiction
5 recovery center in each existing coordinated care organization service area in
6 the state. The centers triage the acute needs of persons who use drugs, provide
7 connections to other services and offer peer support. The measure requires
8 that services provided by the centers be free of charge to the person receiving
9 the services and allows service providers to seek reimbursement from
10 insurance providers. The measure establishes the Oversight and
11 Accountability Council within the Oregon Health Authority to provide grants
12 to existing agencies or organizations to establish the centers. The measure
13 directs the council to oversee the centers and requires that the centers be
14 operational by October 1, 2021.
Ballot Measure No. _____ (LC 296-EXPLAN) 5/28/20 Leg. Counsel
[2]