Section 2.6 Conditional Probability 43 Solution If we let R stand for the event that an order is ready for shipment on time and D be the event that it is delivered on time, we have P(R) = 0.80 and P(ROD) = 0.72, and it follows that P(RMD) _ 0.72 PR) > 080 = 9% P(DIR) = Thus, 90 percent of the shipments will be delivered on time provided they are shipped on time: Note that P(R|D), the probability that a shipment that is delivered on time was also ready for shipment on time, cannot be determined without further information; for this purpose we would also have to know P(D). . If we multiply the expressions on both sides of the formula of Definition 2.1 by P(A), we obtain the following multiplication rule. TuzoreM 2.9. If A and B are any two events in a sample space S and P(A) #0, then P(AN B) = P(A) - P(BIA) In words, the probability that A and B will both occuris the product of the probability of A and the conditional probability of B given A. Alternatively, if P(B) # 0, the probability that A and B will both occur is the product of the probability of B and the conditional probability of A given B; symbolically, P(AN B) = P(B)- P(A|B) To derive this alternative multiplication rule, we interchange A and B in the formula of Theorem 2.9 and make use of the fact that AN B = BNA. EXAMPLE 2.19 If we randomly pick two television tubes in succession from a shipment of 240 television tubes of which 15 are defective, what is the probability that they will both be defective? Solution If we assume equal probabilities for each selection (which its what we mean by “randomly” picking the tubes), the probability that the first tube will be defective is 3, and the probability that the second tube will be defective given that the first tube is defective is 3. Thus, the probability that both tubes will be defective is Hf - 44 = rdis- This assumes that we are sampling without replacement; that is, the first tube is not replaced before the second tube is selected. . EXAMPLE 2.20 Find the probabilities of randomly drawing two aces in succession from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards if we sample (@) without replacement; () with replacement.