Input -->

Income Statement

2014 2015 2016 2017

(in thousands) Act Act Act Act
Automotive revenues 3,007,012 3,740,973 6,350,766 9,641,300
Energy generation and storage 4,208 14,477 181,394 1,116,266
Services and other 187,136 290,575 467,972 1,001,185
Total revenues 3,198,356 4,046,025 7,000,132 11,758,751
Automotive cost of revenues (2,145,749) (2,823,302) (4,750,081) (7,432,704)
Energy generation and storage cost of revenues (4,005) (12,287) (178,332) (874,538)
Services and other cost of revenues (166,931) (286,933) (472,462) (1,229,022)
Gross profit 881,671 923,503 1,599,257 2,222,487
Research and development (464,700) (717,900) (834,408) (1,378,073)
Selling, general and administrative (603,660) (922,232) (1,432,189) (2,476,500)
EBIT (186,689) (716,629) (667,340) (1,632,086)
Interest income 1,126 1,508 8,530 19,686
Interest expense (100,886) (118,851) (198,810) (471,259)
Other income (expense), net 1,813 (41,652) 111,272 (125,373)
EBT (284,636) (875,624) (746,348) (2,209,032)
Provision for income taxes (9,404) (13,039) (26,698) (31,546)
Net loss incl. minority interests (294,040) (888,663) (773,046) (2,240,578)
Minority interests - - 98,132 279,178
Net loss $ (294,040) $ (888,663) $ (674,914) $ (1,961,400)

Revenue yoy % growth automotive

GP% automotive
GP% energy generation and storage
GP% services and other
Overall GP%
EBIT %
Net loss %
Balance Sheet
31-Dec
2014 2015 2016
(in thousands) Act Act Act
Cash and cash equivalents 1,905,713 1,196,908 3,393,216
Restricted cash and marketable securities 17,947 22,628 105,519
Accounts receivable, net 226,604 168,965 499,142
Inventory 953,675 1,277,838 2,067,454
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 76,134 115,667 194,465
Total current assets 3,180,073 2,782,006 6,259,796
Operating lease vehicles, net 766,744 1,791,403 3,134,080
Solar energy systems, leased and to be leased, net - - 5,919,880
Property, plant and equipment, net 1,829,267 3,403,334 5,982,957
Intangible assets, net - 12,816 376,145
portion - - 506,302
Restricted cash, net of current portion 11,374 31,522 268,165
Other assets 43,209 46,858 216,751
Total assets 5,830,667 8,067,939 22,664,076
Accounts payable 777,946 916,148 1,860,341
Accrued liabilities 268,883 422,798 1,210,028
Deferred revenue 191,651 423,961 763,126
Resale value guarantees - 136,831 179,504
Customer deposits 257,587 283,370 663,859
Current portion of long-term debt and capital leases 611,099 627,927 984,211
Current portion of solar bonds issued to related -
parties - - 165,936
Total current liabilities 2,107,166 2,811,035 5,827,005
Long-term debt and capital leases, net of current
portion 1,818,785 2,021,093 5,860,049
Other liabilities 993,006 2,152,107 5,438,936
Total liabilities 4,918,957 6,984,235 17,125,990
Total stockholders' equity 911,710 1,083,704 4,752,911
Noncontrolling interests in subsidiaries - - 785,175
Total liabilities and equity 5,830,667 8,067,939 22,664,076
Balance check - - -

Current Ratio = CA/CL

DSO Days of Sales Outstanding 17.84 17.42
DIO Days of Inventory Outstanding 130.42 113.04
DPO Days of payable Outstanding 99.01 93.82
Net Trading Cycle / Cash Conversion Cycle 49.25 36.64
Debt Ratio

Net Trading Cycle / Cash Conversion Cycle DSO + DIO - DPO

 2017
Act
3,367,914
155,323
515,381
2,263,537
268,365
6,570,520
4,116,604
6,347,490
10,027,522
361,502
516,889
441,722
273,123
28,655,372
2,390,250
1,731,366
1,015,253
787,333
853,919
796,549

100,000 Number of Days of Receivables

7,674,670 DSO Days of Sales Outstanding Average number of days the company takes to

9,415,700
6,330,414 DSO =365/ Recievable Turnover
23,420,784
4,237,242 Recievable Turnover Total Revenue / Avg Recievables
997,346
28,655,372 Avg Recievables = (Ac Recievables Opening + Ac Rec Ending)/2
-
ac Recivable sopening = Last Year Ac ending

15.75 DSO 365/ Total Revenue / Avg Recievables

82.88
81.35 DSO 365 * Avg Recievables / Total Revenue
17.28
Number of days of Inventory
DIO Days of Inventory Outstanding Average of number of days Inventory is held b

DIO 365/ Inventory Turnover

Inventory turnover = COGS/ Avg Inventory

DIO 365/ COGS/ Avg Inventory

DIO =(365*Avg Inv)/COGS
 Number of days of payables
DPO Days of payable Outstanding Average number of days, the company takes t

DPO 365/ Payable turnover

Payable turnover COGS/ Avg Payables

DPO =(365*Avg Payables)/ COGS

ys the company takes to convert the Ac recievables into cash

days Inventory is held before selling

ys, the company takes to pay to its Suppliers / Creditors
Drivers
Case scenarios:
Selected case 2 Case 1: Optimistic case/Best
Corporate tax rate 30% Case 2: Base case
Expected inflation 1% Case 3: Worst case
Number of Days in a Year 365

choose

Assumptions Optimistic Case Pessimistic

Production Numbers 2% -1%
Inflation 0.50% -0.50%
Energy Gen and Services 3.00% -1.50% Kindly don't delete the data
Gross Profit Margin Automotive 2.00% -1.00% 1
Gross Profit Others Business 2.00% -1.00% 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
se scenarios:
se 1: Optimistic case/Best
se 2: Base case
se 3: Worst case

Case 2: Base case

ndly don't delete the data

Workings -->
Production

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(in thousands) Act Act Act Act Exp.
Model S and Model X 31.7 50.6 83.9 101.3 150.8
Model 3 1.6 227.5
Other vehicles - -
Total 31.7 50.6 83.9 102.9 378.3

Selected case:
Model S and Model X y-o-y % 60% 66% 21% 49%
Model 3 y-o-y %
Other vehicles y-o-y %

Best case
Model S and Model X y-o-y %
Model 3 y-o-y %
Other vehicles y-o-y %

Base case
Model S and Model X y-o-y %
Model 3 y-o-y %
Other vehicles y-o-y %

Worst case
Model S and Model X y-o-y %
Model 3 y-o-y %
Other vehicles y-o-y %
 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.
216.8 300.9 402.7 518.7 642.2 763.0 868.3 944.8
409.5 573.3 716.6 895.8 1,074.9 1,289.9 1,483.4 1,705.9
35.0 63.0 113.4 204.1 285.8 357.2 446.5 535.8
661.3 937.2 1,232.7 1,618.6 2,002.9 2,410.1 2,798.2 3,186.5

43.81% 38.81% 33.81% 28.81% 23.81% 18.81% 13.81% 8.81%

80.00% 40.00% 25.00% 25.00% 20.00% 20.00% 15.00% 15.00%
80.00% 80.00% 80.00% 80.00% 40.00% 25.00% 25.00% 20.00%

44.68% 39.58% 34.48% 29.38% 24.28% 19.18% 14.08% 8.98%

81.60% 40.80% 25.50% 25.50% 20.40% 20.40% 15.30% 15.30%
81.60% 81.60% 81.60% 81.60% 40.80% 25.50% 25.50% 20.40%

43.81% 38.81% 33.81% 28.81% 23.81% 18.81% 13.81% 8.81%

80.00% 40.00% 25.00% 25.00% 20.00% 20.00% 15.00% 15.00%
80.00% 80.00% 80.00% 80.00% 40.00% 25.00% 25.00% 20.00%

43.37% 38.42% 33.47% 28.52% 23.57% 18.62% 13.67% 8.72%

79.20% 39.60% 24.75% 24.75% 19.80% 19.80% 14.85% 14.85%
79.20% 79.20% 79.20% 79.20% 39.60% 24.75% 24.75% 19.80%
 2027
Exp.
980.8
1,961.8 1 2
643.0
3,585.6

3.81%
15.00%
20.00%

3.88%
15.30%
20.40%

3.81%
15.00%
20.00%

3.77%
14.85%
19.80%
Pricing

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(in thousands) Act Act Act Act Exp.
Average price - Model S and Model X 78.0
Average price - Model 3 38.0
Average price - Other vehicles 65.0
Total 181.0

Selected case:
Average price - Model S and Model X y-o-y % 1.0%
Average price - Model 3 y-o-y % 1.0%
Average price - Other vehicles y-o-y % 1.0%

Best case
Average price - Model S and Model X y-o-y % 1.5%
Average price - Model 3 y-o-y % 1.5%
Average price - Other vehicles y-o-y % 1.5%

Base case
Average price - Model S and Model X y-o-y % 1.0%
Average price - Model 3 y-o-y % 1.0%
Average price - Other vehicles y-o-y % 1.0%

Worst case
Average price - Model S and Model X y-o-y % 0.5%
Average price - Model 3 y-o-y % 0.5%
Average price - Other vehicles y-o-y % 0.5%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.
78.8 79.6 80.4 81.2 82.0 82.8 83.6 84.5
38.4 38.8 39.2 39.5 39.9 40.3 40.7 41.1
65.7 66.3 67.0 67.6 68.3 69.0 69.7 70.4

1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
2027
Exp.
85.3
41.6 1 2
71.1

1.0%
1.0%
1.0%

1.5%
1.5%
1.5%

1.0%
1.0%
1.0%

0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
Revenues

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(in million) Act Act Act Act Exp.
Revenues - Model S and Model X 3,007.0 3,741.0 6,350.8 9,641.3 11,759.3
Revenues - Model 3 8,645.0
Revenues - Other vehicles 0.0
Automotive revenues 3,007.0 3,741.0 6,350.8 9,641.3 20,404.3
Energy generation and storage 4.2 14.5 181.4 1,116.3 1,887.5
Services and other 187.1 290.6 468.0 1,001.2 1,583.5
Total revenues 3,198.4 4,046.0 7,000.1 11,758.8 23,875.3

Solar City historical revenue:

2014 2015 2016 2,017.0
(in million) Act Act Act
Revenue 255.0 399.6 730.3
Revenue registered as Tesla 181.4
Total revenue Solar City 255.0 399.6 911.7

Selected case:
Energy generation y-o-y % 57% 128% 22% 69%
Services and other y-o-y % 55% 61% 58%

Best case
Energy generation y-o-y % 71%
Services and other y-o-y % 60%

Base case
Energy generation y-o-y % 69%
Services and other y-o-y % 58%

Worst case
Energy generation y-o-y % 68%
Services and other y-o-y % 57%
 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.
17,080.0 23,945.5 32,361.4 42,100.9 52,645.6 63,172.7 72,614.6 79,800.7
15,716.6 22,223.3 28,056.9 35,421.8 42,931.3 52,032.7 60,436.0 70,196.4
2,297.8 4,177.3 7,594.3 13,806.5 19,522.4 24,647.1 31,116.9 37,713.7
35,094.3 50,346.1 68,012.6 91,329.3 115,099.3 139,852.5 164,167.5 187,710.8
3,020.0 4,228.1 5,073.7 5,581.0 6,139.1 6,446.1 6,768.4 7,106.8
2,058.5 2,676.1 3,211.3 3,853.6 4,239.0 4,662.9 5,129.1 5,385.6
40,172.9 57,250.2 76,297.6 100,763.9 125,477.4 150,961.4 176,065.1 200,203.2

60% 40% 20% 10% 10% 5% 5% 5%

30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 5%

62% 41% 21% 10% 10% 5% 5% 5%

31% 31% 21% 21% 10% 10% 10% 5%

60% 40% 20% 10% 10% 5% 5% 5%

30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 5%

59% 39% 20% 10% 10% 5% 5% 5%

30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 5%
 2027
Exp.
83,668.0
81,533.1
45,709.0
210,910.1
7,462.2
5,654.9
224,027.2

5%
5%

5%
5%

5%
5%

5%
5%
 2014 2015 2016 2017
(in million) Act Act Act Act
Gross profit - Model S and Model X 861.3 917.7 1,600.7 2,208.6
Gross profit - Model 3
Gross profit - Other vehicles
Automotive Gross profit 861.3 917.7 1,600.7 2,208.6

Selected case:
Average margin - Model S and Model X 29% 25% 25% 26%
Average margin - Model 3
Average margin - Other vehicles

Inflation

Best case
Average margin - Model S and Model X
Average margin - Model 3
Average margin - Other vehicles

Base case
Average margin - Model S and Model X
Average margin - Model 3
Average margin - Other vehicles

Worst case
Average margin - Model S and Model X
Average margin - Model 3
Average margin - Other vehicles
 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.
3,080.8 4,474.8 6,704.7 9,708.4 13,472.3 17,899.5 21,478.7 24,689.0
864.5 1,886.0 3,111.3 4,489.1 6,375.9 8,586.3 11,447.2 14,504.6
- 275.7 584.8 1,215.1 2,485.2 3,904.5 5,422.4 7,468.1
3,945.3 6,636.5 10,400.8 15,412.6 22,333.4 30,390.2 38,348.3 46,661.7

26.20% 26.20% 28.00% 30.00% 32.00% 34.00% 34.00% 34.00%

10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% 22.00% 24.00%
0.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% 22.00% 24.00%

26.72% 26.72% 28.56% 30.60% 32.64% 34.68% 34.68% 34.68%

10.20% 12.24% 14.28% 16.32% 18.36% 20.40% 22.44% 24.48%
0.00% 12.24% 14.28% 16.32% 18.36% 20.40% 22.44% 24.48%

26.20% 26.20% 28.00% 30.00% 32.00% 34.00% 34.00% 34.00%

10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% 22.00% 24.00%
12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% 22.00% 24.00%

25.94% 25.94% 27.72% 29.70% 31.68% 33.66% 33.66% 33.66%

9.90% 11.88% 13.86% 15.84% 17.82% 19.80% 21.78% 23.76%
0.00% 11.88% 13.86% 15.84% 17.82% 19.80% 21.78% 23.76%
 2026 2027
Exp. Exp.
27,132.2 28,447.1
16,847.1 19,567.9 1 2
9,051.3 10,970.2
53,030.7 58,985.2

34.00% 34.00%
24.00% 24.00%
24.00% 24.00%

34.68% 34.68%
24.48% 24.48%
24.48% 24.48%

34.00% 34.00% https://electrek.co/2017/05/08/tesla-model-3-gross-margin/

24.00% 24.00%
24.00% 24.00%

33.66% 33.66%
23.76% 23.76%
23.76% 23.76%
Margins Other

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(in million) Act Act Act Act Exp.
Energy generation and storage 0.2 2.2 3.1 550.7
Services and other 20.2 3.6 (4.5) 58.5
Gross profit other 20.4 5.8 (1.4)

Solar City historical Gross profit:

2014 2015 2016
(in million) Act Act Act
Gross Profit 78.6 118.8 251.4
Revenue registered as Tesla 3.1
Gross profit Solar City 78.6 118.8 254.5

Selected case:
Energy generation GP% 30.4% 29.2% 27.9% 29%
Services and other GP% 10.8% 1.3% -1.0% 4%

Best case
Energy generation GP% 29.76%
Services and other GP% 3.77%

Base case 29.18%

Energy generation GP% 3.70%
Services and other GP%

Worst case
Energy generation GP% 28.89%
Services and other GP% 3.66%
 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.
881.2 1,233.7 1,480.4 1,628.4 1,791.3 1,880.8 1,974.9 2,073.6
76.1 98.9 118.7 142.5 156.7 172.4 189.6 199.1

29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29%

4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%

29.76% 29.76% 29.76% 29.76% 29.76% 29.76% 29.76% 29.76%

3.77% 3.77% 3.77% 3.77% 3.77% 3.77% 3.77% 3.77%

29.18% 29.18% 29.18% 29.18% 29.18% 29.18% 29.18% 29.18%

3.70% 3.70% 3.70% 3.70% 3.70% 3.70% 3.70% 3.70%

28.89% 28.89% 28.89% 28.89% 28.89% 28.89% 28.89% 28.89%

3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66%
 2027
Exp.
2,177.3 3
209.1

29%
4%

29.76%
3.77%

29.18%
3.70%

28.89%
3.66%
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Past Present
Annual Report Company News

www.seekingalpha.com

Press Release
8k (Exhibit ex 99.1)
 Future Base case Prority
Mgmt Info (Earning Call, Press Release, any 1
other Source
Bloomberg / Fact Set 3
Lead Analyst + Experience 2
Industry Reports from crisil, AC Neilson, Gartn 4
Competitors Data 5
Cash Flow Matching Model 6
Google
 Send this matrix by Friday

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Production increase
Cash
Debt
PPPVM:
Capex $2 Billion reduce
Annual
Margins improve
Cost of sales

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(in million) Act Act Act Act Exp.
Automotive revenues (2,145.7) (2,823.3) (4,750.1) (7,432.7) (16,459.0)
Energy generation and storage (4.0) (12.3) (178.3) (1,116.3) (1,336.8)
Services and other (166.9) (286.9) (472.5) (1,001.2) (1,525.0)
Cost of sales (2,316.7) (3,122.5) (5,400.9) (9,550.2) (19,320.7)
 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.
(28,457.8) (39,945.2) (52,600.0) (68,995.9) (84,709.0) (101,504.2) (117,505.8) (134,680.1)
(2,138.9) (2,994.4) (3,593.3) (3,952.6) (4,347.9) (4,565.3) (4,793.5) (5,033.2)
(1,982.4) (2,577.2) (3,092.6) (3,711.1) (4,082.3) (4,490.5) (4,939.5) (5,186.5)
(32,579.1) (45,516.8) (59,285.9) (76,659.6) (93,139.2) (110,559.9) (127,238.9) (144,899.8)
 2027
Exp.
(151,924.9)
(5,284.9) 3
(5,445.8)
(162,655.6)
Opex

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(in million) Act Act Act Act Exp.
Opex (1,068.4) (1,640.1) (2,266.6) (3,854.6)
Revenue 3,198.4 4,046.0 7,000.1 11,758.8
Opex as a % of revenues -33.4% -40.5% -32.4% -32.8%

Selected case:
Opex as a % of revenues

Best case
Opex as a % of revenues

Base case
Opex as a % of revenues -34.78%
Worst case
Opex as a % of revenues
 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.

-30.00% -28.00% -26.00% -24.00% -22.00% -20.00% -20.00% -20.00%

 2027
Exp.

-20.00%
Fixed asset roll forward

*
2014 2015 2016 2017 31Dec2018E 31Dec2019E
(in million) Act Act Act Act
Beginning PP&E 738.5 1,829.3 3,403.3 5,983.0
Capex 1,322.7 1,996.7 3,526.7 5,211.0
D&A (231.9) (422.6) (947.1) (1,166.4)
Ending PP&E 1,829.3 3,403.3 5,983.0 10,027.5

D&A as a % of PP&E -31.4% -23.1% -27.8% -19.5%

D&A as a % of revenues -7.3% -10.4% -13.5% -9.9%
Capex as a % of PP&E 179.1% 109.2% 103.6% 87.1%
Capex as a % of revenues 41.4% 49.3% 50.4% 44.3%

Useful life Capex 15

Useful life historical assets 15

31Dec2014Act 31Dec2015A 31Dec2016A 30Sep2017A 31Dec2018E 31Dec2019E

(in million) ct ct ct
D&A Year 1
D&A Year 2
D&A Year 3
D&A Year 4
D&A Year 5
D&A Year 6
D&A Year 7
D&A Year 8
D&A Year 9
D&A Year 10
Total D&A (231.9) (422.6) (947.1) (1,166.4) - -

Selected case:
Capex as a % of revenues 46% 45%

Best case
Capex as a % of revenues 46% 45%

Base case
Capex as a % of revenues 46% 45%

Worst case
Capex as a % of revenues 46% 45%
31Dec2020E 31Dec2021E 31Dec2022E 31Dec2023E 31Dec2024E 31Dec2025E 31Dec2026E 31Dec2027E

31Dec2020E 31Dec2021E 31Dec2022E 31Dec2023E 31Dec2024E 31Dec2025E 31Dec2026E 31Dec2027E

Compare with D&A

producers

- - - - - - - -

40% 36% 32% 28% 24% 20% 20% 20%

40% 36% 32% 28% 24% 20% 20% 20%

40% 36% 32% 28% 24% 20% 20% 20%

40% 36% 32% 28% 24% 20% 20% 20%

Compare with D&A of mature auto
producers
Comparables - 2017

DSO DIO DPO

Adj. Adj. Adj.
Vehicle Average Average Average Average Average Average
GM 22.0 22.0 28.8 28.8 75.0 75.0
Ford 28.2 28.2 21.2 21.2 60.6 60.6
Fiat Chrysle 25.6 25.6 41.9 41.9 84.0 84.0
BMW 9.7 9.7 46.4 46.4 44.5 44.5
Volkswagen 20.8 20.8 63.1 63.1 44.1 44.1
Jaguar 18.8 51.2 155.5
Porsche 9.2 9.2 46.8 46.8 65.0 65.0
Ferrari 25.2 25.2 41.5 41.5 132.5 132.5
Scania 27.1 27.1 64.9 64.9 55.9 55.9
MAN 54.5 85.3 59.4
Paccar 22.3 22.3 18.4 18.4 59.3 59.3
Average 24.0 21.1 46.3 41.4 76.0 69.0
Working capital

2014 2015 2016 2017

(in million) Act Act Act Act
Trade receivables 226.6 169.0 499.1 515.4
Inventory 953.7 1,277.8 2,067.5 2,263.5
Trade payables 777.9 916.1 1,860.3 2,390.3

Selected case:
DSO - 17.8 17.4 15.7
DIO - 130.4 113.0 82.9
DPO - 99.0 93.8 81.3

Best case
DSO
DIO
DPO

Base case
DSO
DIO
DPO

Worst case
DSO
DIO
DPO
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.
2025 2026 2027
Exp. Exp. Exp.
Financing
Cover negative cash flows with:
Debt 50%
Equity 50%

2014 2015 2016

(in million) Act Act Act
Long-term debt and capital leases, net of current 1,818.8 2,021.1 5,860.0
Interest expense (100.9) (118.9) (198.8)
Interest rate 5.5% 5.9% 3.4%

Current bond Yield as of 12 Jan 6.25%

Unlevered Free Cash Flow

Debt
Equity
Difference to cover:
 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Act Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.
9,415.7
(471.3)
5.0%

-
2024 2025 2026 2027
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.
Output -->
P&L

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(in million) Act Act Act Act Exp.
Revenues 3,198.4 4,046.0 7,000.1 11,758.8
Cost of sales (2,316.7) (3,122.5) (5,400.9) (9,550.2)
Gross profit 881.7 923.5 1,599.3 2,208.6
Operating expenses (1,068.4) (1,640.1) (2,266.6) (3,854.6)
EBIT (186.7) (716.6) (667.3) (1,646.0)
Interest expenses/income (97.9) (159.0) (79.0) (471.3)
EBT (284.6) (875.6) (746.3) (2,117.2)
Taxes (9.4) (13.0) (26.7) (31.5)
Net Income (294.0) (888.7) (773.0) (2,148.8)
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.
2026 2027
Exp. Exp.
 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(in million) Act Act Act Act Exp. Exp.
Cash 1,905.7 1,196.9 3,393.2 3,367.9
Restricted cash and securities 17.9 22.6 105.5 155.3
Trade receivables 226.6 169.0 499.1 515.4
Inventory 953.7 1,277.8 2,067.5 2,263.5
Prepaid expenses 76.1 115.7 194.5 268.4
as a % of revenues 2.4% 2.9% 2.8% 2.3%
Operating lease vehicles 766.7 1,791.4 3,134.1 4,116.6
Solar energy systems leased - - 5,919.9 6,347.5
PP&E 1,829.3 3,403.3 5,983.0 10,027.5
Intangible assets - 12.8 376.1 361.5
Other assets 54.6 78.4 991.2 1,231.7
as a % of revenues 1.7% 1.9% 14.2% 10.5%
Total assets 5,830.7 8,067.9 22,664.1 28,655.4 0.0 0.0

Accounts payable 777.9 916.1 1,860.3 2,390.3

Accrued liabilities 268.9 422.8 1,210.0 1,731.4
as a % of revenues 8.4% 10.4% 17.3% 14.7%
Deferred revenue 191.7 424.0 763.1 1,015.3
as a % of revenues 6.0% 10.5% 10.9% 8.6%
Resale value guarantees - 136.8 179.5 787.3
as a % of revenues 0.0% 3.4% 2.6% 6.7%
Customer deposits 257.6 283.4 663.9 853.9
as a % of revenues 8.1% 7.0% 9.5% 7.3%
Long-term debt 2,429.9 2,649.0 6,844.3 10,212.2
Other liabilities 993.0 2152.1 5604.9 6430.4
as a % of revenues 31.0% 53.2% 80.1% 54.7%
Total liabilities 4,919.0 6,984.2 17,126.0 23,420.8
Equity 911.7 1,083.7 5,538.1 5,234.6

Total liabilities & equity 5,830.7 8,067.9 22,664.1 28,655.4 0.0 0.0

Check - - - - - -
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

- - - - - - - -
Assumption
Cash flow sheet
Stays flat
Working capital sheet
Working capital sheet
Grows as a % of revenues

Stays flat
Stays flat
PP&E sheet
Stays flat
Grows as a % of revenues

Working capital sheet

Grows as a % of revenues

Grows as a % of revenues

Grows as a % of revenues

Grows as a % of revenues

Financing sheet
Grows as a % of revenues
Cash Flow

2014 2015 2016 2017

(in million) Act Act Act Act
EBIT (716.6) (667.3) (1,646.0)
Operating taxes (30%) (13.0) (26.7) (31.5)
NOPAT (729.7) (694.0) (1,677.5)
Add-back D&A 422.6 947.1 1,166.4
Gross Cash Flow (307.1) 253.1 (511.1)

Trade receivables 57.6 (330.2) (16.2)

Inventory (324.2) (789.6) (196.1)
Accounts payable 138.2 944.2 529.9
Investments in Working Capital (128.3) (175.6) 317.6

Capex (1,996.7) (3,526.7) (5,211.0)

Other assets (1,105.5) (8,700.4) (1,759.7)
Other liabilties 1,707.9 5,002.3 2,396.9

Unlevered Free Cash Flow (1,829.6) (7,147.4) (4,767.3)

Interest expenses (159.0) (79.0) (471.3)

Delta Financial liabilities 219.1 4,195.2 3,368.0
Delta equity/Other equity movements 1,060.7 5,227.4 1,845.3
Tax adjustment - - -

Net Cash Flow (708.8) 2,196.3 (25.3)

Opening cash 1,905.7 1,196.9 3,393.2

Net Cash Flow - (708.8) 2,196.3 (25.3)
Closing cash 1,905.7 1,196.9 3,393.2 3,367.9
 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -

515.4 - - - - - -
2,263.5 - - - - - -
(2,390.3) - - - - - -
388.7 - - - - - -

- - - - - - -
12,481.0 - - - - - -
(10,818.3) - - - - - -

2,051.4 - - - - - -

- - - - - - -
(10,212.2) - - - - - -
(5,234.6) - - - - - -
- - - - - - -

(13,395.4) - - - - - -

3,367.9 (10,027.5) (10,027.5) (10,027.5) (10,027.5) (10,027.5) (10,027.5)

(13,395.4) - - - - - -
(10,027.5) (10,027.5) (10,027.5) (10,027.5) (10,027.5) (10,027.5) (10,027.5)
 2025 2026 2027
Exp. Exp. Exp.
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -

- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -

- - -
- - -
- - -

- - -

- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -

- - -

(10,027.5) (10,027.5) (10,027.5)

- - -
(10,027.5) (10,027.5) (10,027.5)
WACC

Risk-free rate 2.55%

Market risk premium 6.00%
Beta (as of 10 Jan 2018) 0.65

Cost of equity 6.5%

Current bond Yield as of 12 Jan 6.3%

2014 2015 2016 2017

(in million) Act Act Act Act
Debt
Equity

Debt / (Debt + Equity)

Equity / (Debt + Equity)
WACC

DCF Valuation

g (Perpetuity growth) 2%

2014 2015 2016 2017

Act Act Act Act
(in million)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow

Discount factor (WACC)

Present value of UFCF

Perpetuity Growth Rate-Based Valuation

Total PV of Cash Flows
Continuing Value
PV of Continuing Value
Enterprise Value
+Cash
-Financial liabilities
Equity Value
Number of shares outstanding (as of 14 Jan 2018) 168.1
Price per share
 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.

Growth Rate-Based Valuation

Explicit of Enterprise Value

Implicit of Enterprise Value

Cost of Equity
- 6% 6.50% 7% 7.5%
1.0%
2.0%
g
2.5%
3.0%
2024 2025 2026 2027
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp.

7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

2024 2025 2026 2027 Continuing
Exp. Exp. Exp. Exp. Value