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Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Volatility Index shows the value of change in price with respect to the average price expressed in terms of percentage (for in
Higher the volatility, higher the premium charged of option ( greater chance of earning more money)
Historical Volatility:
HV shows the volatility of stocks based on past perfotmance, but with past, we predict the future (for stocks)
Implied Volatility:
Implied means inherant volatility and is already included in premium.With high premium, you can guage High Volatility ( for
If Bollinger bands narrow down and the candles start hugging the bollimger band, it is a bullish signal.
To confirm, check if RSI is trending up and MACD 12 day has crossed the 26 day line.
Pro tip 1: If the price touches MACD line from above and bounces back, it is a buy signal.
Pro tip 2: If RSI shows double top, it is a bearish signal and if RSI shows double bottom, it is a comfimed bullish trend.
a comfimed bullish trend.
Support and resistance
Try to join maximum candles without cutting bodies for support and resistance
Trend reversal :
When at support, if a large green candle is formed, it is a bullish trend reversal.
When at resistance, if a large red candle is formed, it is a bearish trend reversal.
How to buy stocks at bottom
Trend lines:
While drawing a trendline( bullish or bearish), make sure that at least 3 points are touched by the line.
Moving averages:
MA are dynamic support and resistence
Always use EMA
When a stock is very bullish it always takes pattern and support of 20 day DMA
When a stock is in uptrend, stock always trends above 200 DMA and below 200 DMA when in downtrend
Trend lines + above 200 DMA and taking support of 20 DMA + RSI moving up = CONFIRMED BUY
Trend lines + below 200 DMA + RSI moving down = CONFIRMED SELL
n downtrend
re not as expected.
How to select stock for a long term using Fundamental Analysis *
Pro Tip: When the 20 DMA cuts 100DMA or 200DMA from below and then above and then cuts 50 DMA too from above,
en cuts 50 DMA too from above, it shows the trend has become bearish
Pivot Points
Pro Tip: If BB is narrowed, it is a sign that the price will fall or rise rapidly.
Check the long term trend
If candles are hugging the lower BB for long term, stock will go down.
If candles are hugging the upper BB for long term, it will go up.
MFI
Uptrend or downtrend?
If stock is moving above 50 DMA in short term ot 200DMA in long term, stock is in uptrend and vice versa
For positional trading, buy at every dip and sell at highs. Apply 50DMA + 200DMA + MACD + MFI
If stock is above 50DMA and 200DMA, it is a great time to buy at dips.
and vice versa
Candlestick Patterns
Bullish Engulfing
When a bullish candle completely eats up/englufs the previous bearish candle, it is a sign that markets will go up.
Pro tip: The more the bigger size of green candle than the previous red candle, the better.
Hammer:
When there is a long wick down and hammer on the top, it means buyers have defeated sellers and stock will move up.
Doji:
Neutral ( Indecisive market)
Dragonfly ( Buyer defeat sellers, bullish)
Gravestone ( Sellers defeat buyers, bearish)
If there is a bearish candle before a neutral doji and a bullish candle after a neutral doji, it is a perfect indicator of trend re
The longer the green candle, the more reliable the trend
Bullish Marubozu:
When a long candle is formed with very small wicks or no wicks, it is called Bullish Marubozu and indicates an uptrend.
hat markets will go up.
Volume + Price
Best indicator for intraday traders and mutual fund houses
Leading indicator
It is a price and not an indicator
No need to use any other indicator while using VWAP
Stop Loss?
Low of previous candle
Trail SL
On VWAP( Preferred)
Pro tip: Large candle indicates trend reversal
Who is an operator?
He is a market participant who can drive the market with his excess liquidity
Pro tip :
Whenever an operator enters, he makes sure that the price remains flat
Look for the place where volumes have increased but not price
If price and volume are moving in the same direction, it is not an operator driven move
LUPIN
AIRTEL
BATA
JSW
TCS
Using 1D chart:
Use BB, OBV, MFI
Use 20,50,100,200 DMA and volume chart
20- Purple
50- Red
100- Green
200- Blue
It is important to use indicators which show momentum, trend and volume.
Momentum Indicators:
RSI (leading indicator)
Volume indicators:
On balance volume (OBV)
OBV combines both price and volume to show you the total amount of funds going in and out of the market.
Trend Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud
Bollinger Bands
out of the market.
Essentials of Portfolio Management
When a stock is more than 20% of your portfolio, book profits and bring it back to 20%
When a sector is more than 20% of your portfolio, book profits and bring it back to 20%
When fundamentals of companies are out of place
Axis
Vedanta
Airtel
Titan Company
Avanti Feeds
VIP industries
Bajaj Finance
Maruti Suzuki
Escorts
HCL Tech
What comprises price action?
Golden Rule:
SELL trade only when NIFTY is red
BUY trade only when NIFTY is green
10 EMA
20 EMA
VWAP (for confirmation)
MACD (for confirmation)
Stochastic RSI
Sector Company LTP 10EMA vs 20EMA VWAP MACD vs Signal Stochastic RSI
Banking HDFC Bank 982.75 971.94, 961.12 959.78 4.27, 0.63 90.25
ICICI 344.2 339.55, 336.02 335.22 0.89, -0.67 83.89
Kotak 1279.8 1272.66, 1265.69 1260.62 (0.94), (4.79) 74.43
R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3