Drivers

Scenario Best case

Name of the company IndusInd bank

Currency Rupee
Domestic Country India
Company Beta 1.7
Indusind Share Price 446
Corporate Tax Rate 34%
Risk Free Rate 6.50%
Terminal Value 4%
 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales 11,871.74 14,405.67 17,280.75 22,261.15
Expenses 4,187.74 5,683.71 6,555.23 9,282.30
Operating Profit 7,684.00 8,721.96 10,725.52 12,978.85
Other Income 3,296.95 4,171.49 4,750.10 5,645.54
Depreciation 156.52 190.70 211.64 228.85
Interest 7,355.17 8,343.07 9,783.30 13,414.97
Profit before tax 3,469.26 4,359.68 5,480.68 4,980.57
Tax 1,182.81 1,491.79 1,874.69 1,679.47
Net profit 2,286.45 2,867.89 3,605.99 3,301.10

Equities and Liabilities

Share Capital 594.99 598.15 600.22 602.69
ESOP's 13.76 15.2 14.57 11.19
Reserves & Surplus 17,088.43 20,034.25 23,228.47 26,073.37
Deposits 93,000.35 126,572.22 151,639.17 194,867.91
Borrowings 22,155.86 22,453.69 38,289.08 47,321.12
Liabilities & Provisions 7,204.81 8,976.38 7,856.27 8,944.43
Total Liabilities 140,058.20 178,649.90 221,627.78 277,820.70

Assets
Cash and balance with RBI, 10111.88 18628.26 13215.88 14783.43
money at call and short notice
Fixed Assets 1,255.32 1,335.23 1,338.75 1,710.01
Loans & Advances 88,419.34 113,080.51 144,953.66 186,393.50
Investments 31,215.52 36,703.62 50,078.33 59,268.04
Other Assets 9,056.14 8,902.28 12,041.16 15,666.35
Total Assets 140,058.20 178,649.90 221,627.78 277,821.33
Profit & Loss statement

Rupee in 000's 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Interest earned 11871.74 14405.67 17280.75 22261.15 24042.042
Other Income 3296.95 4171.49 4750.1 5645.54 6153.6386
Net Revenue 15168.69 18577.16 22030.85 27906.69 30195.681
Interest expended 7355.17 8343.07 9783.3 13414.97 13286.099
Gross Profit 7813.52 10234.09 12247.55 14491.72 16909.581
Operating expenses 3515.59 4592.38 5379.8 6175.8 6945.0065
EBITDA 4297.93 5641.71 6867.75 8315.92 9964.5746
Depreciation 156.51 190.7 211.64 228.85 274
EBIT 4,141.42 5,451.01 6,656.11 8,087.07 9,690.20
Provision& contingencies 672.13 1091.33 1175.43 3107.65 1511.635
EBT 3,469.29 4,359.68 5,480.68 4,979.42 8,178.56
Taxes 1,182.81 1,491.79 1874.69 1679.47 2,780.71
Net Income 2286.48 2867.89 3605.99 3299.95 5397.8511
Appropriation of dividends 284.67 322.64 432.00 542.84 703.47

Tax rate 34% 34% 34% 34% 34%

Dividend payout % 12.45% 11.25% 11.98% 16.45% 13.0%

Scenario:
Interest earned % growth 8%
Best case 8%
Base case 5%
Worst case 2%

Other income % growth 9%

Best case 9%
Base case 4%
Worst case -2%

Interest expended as % of revenue 44%

Best case 48% 45% 44% 48% 44%
Base case 48% 45% 44% 48% 46%
Worst case 48% 45% 44% 48% 48%

Opex as % of revenue 23%

Best case 23% 25% 24% 22% 23%
Base case 23% 25% 24% 22% 26%
Worst case 23% 25% 24% 22% 30%
 2021 2022 2023
25965.4054 28042.63779 30286.0488
6645.92969 7177.604063 7751.81239
32611.335 35220.24185 38037.8612
14348.9874 15496.90641 16736.6589
18262.3476 19723.33544 21301.2023
7500.60706 8100.655626 8748.70808
10761.7406 11622.67981 12552.4942
306 347 409
10,455.94 11,275.79 12,143.55
1343.75842 1070.945188 777.498648
9,112.18 10,204.85 11,366.05
3,098.14 3,469.65 3,864.46
6014.03769 6735.199604 7501.59435
792.54 920.04 1056.24

34% 34% 34%

13.2% 13.7% 14.1%

8% 8% 8%
8% 8% 8%
5% 5% 5%
2% 2% 2%

9% 9% 9%
9% 9% 9%
4% 4% 4%
-2% -2% -2%

44% 44% 44%

44% 44% 44%
46% 46% 46%
48% 48% 48%

23% 23% 23%

23% 23% 23%
26% 26% 26%
30% 30% 30%
Balance sheet

Rupees in 000's 2016 2017

Capital and liabilities
Capital 595 598
ESOP's 14 15
Reserves and surplus 17088.43 20034.25
Deposits 93000.35 126572.22
Borrowings 22155.86 22453.69
Other liabilities and provisions 7204.81 8976.38
Total 140058.20 178649.89

Assets
Cash and balances with RBI, money at banks, moey at call and short notice 10111.88 18628.26
Investments 31215.52 36703.62
Advances 88419.34 113080.51
Fixed assets 1255.32 1335.23
Other assets 9056.14 8902.28
Total 140058.20 178649.90

Check 0.00 0.01

Scenario
Deposits % growth
Best case 36%
Base case 36%
Worst case 36%

Advances % growth
Best case 28%
Base case 28%
Worst case 28%

Other assets as % of revenue 60% 48%

Other liabilities and provisions as % of revenue 47% 48%

Working capital schedule

Other assets 9056.14 8902.28
Other liabilities and provisions 7204.81 8976.38
Net working capital 1851.33 -74.1
Change in working capital 57.63 -1925.43
 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

600 603 603 603 603 603

15 11 11 11 11 11
23228.47 26073.37 28075.18 30620.44 33794.43 36551.54
151639.17 194867.91 243584.89 304481.11 380601.38672 475751.7334
38289.08 47321.12 47321.12 47321.12 47321.12 47321.12
7856.27 8944.43 12344.663 12792.87 13015.818714 14180.250202
221627.78 277820.71 331939.73 395829.42 475346.63345 574418.51984

13215.88 14783.43 44290.58 85876.74 137735.19 205629.16

50078.33 59268.04 59268.04 59268.04 59268.04 59268.04
144953.66 186393.50 214352.53 246505.4 283481.21431 326003.39646
1338.75 1710.01 1905.87 2161.91 2548.67 2912.09
12041.16 15666.35 16488.174 17391.561 19259.172132 20802.398251
221627.78 277821.33 336305.19 411203.66 502292.29139 614615.08953

0.00 0.62 4365.451 15374.243 26945.657945 40196.569695

25% 25% 25% 25%

20% 29% 25% 25% 25% 25%
20% 29% 20% 20% 20% 20%
20% 29% 15% 15% 15% 15%

15% 15% 15% 15%

28% 29% 15% 15% 15% 15%
28% 29% 20% 20% 20% 20%
28% 29% 25% 25% 25% 25%

55% 56% 55% 53% 55% 55%

36% 32% 41% 39% 37% 37%

12041.16 15666.35 16488.174 17391.561 19259.172132 20802.398251

7856.27 8944.43 12344.663 12792.87 13015.818714 14180.250202
4184.89 6721.92 4143.5105 4598.6904 6243.3534183 6622.148049
4258.99 2537.03 -2578.41 455.17994 1644.662999 378.79463071
Fixed assets roll forward

FORECAST
Rupees in 000's 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Beginning fixed assets 1255 1335 1339 1710 1906
D&A 191 212 229 274 306
Capex 271 215 600 470 562
Ending Fixed assets 1335 1339 1710 1906 2162

D&A as % of beginning fixed assets 15% 16% 17% 16% 16%

Capex as % of beginning fixed assets 22% 16% 45% 27% 29%
FORECAST
2022 2023
2162 2549
347 409
734 772
2549 2912

16% 16%
34% 30%
Debt Schedule

FORECAST
Rupees in 000's 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Beginning Debt 22155.86 22453.69 38289.08 47321.12 47321.12 47321.12 47321.12
Additional Debt 297.83 15835.39 9032.04 0 0 0 0
Debt repayment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ending debt 22155.86 22453.69 38289.08 47321.12 47321.12 47321.12 47321.12 47321.12
Cash flow statement

FORECAST
Rs. In 000's 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cash flow from operations
EBITDA 5641.71 6867.75 8315.92 9964.57 10761.74
Taxes -1491.79 -1874.69 -1679.47 -2780.71 3098.14
Changes in advances -24661.17 -31873.15 -41439.84 -27959.03 -32152.88
Changes in other assets 153.86 -3138.88 -3625.19 -821.82 -903.39
Changes in deposits 33571.87 25066.95 43228.74 48716.98 60896.22
Changes in other liabilities 1771.57 -1120.11 1088.16 3400.23 448.21
Cash flow from operations [A] 14986.05 -6072.13 5888.32 30520.23 42148.04
Cash flow from investing activities
Capex -271 -215 -600 -470 -562

Cash flow from investing activities [B] -271 -215 -600 -470 -562
Cash flow from financing activities
Changes in borrowings 297.83 15835.39 9032.04 0.00 0.00
Dividends -284.67 -322.64 -432.00 -542.84 -0.03
Changes in provisions 0 0 0 0 0
Change in equity 3 2 2 0 0
Cash flow from financing activities [C] 16.32 15514.82 8602.51 -542.84 -0.03

Net cash flow [ A + B + C ] 14731.76 9227.53 13890.72 29507.15 41586.17

Beginning cash 24843.64 27855.79 27106.60 44290.58 85876.74
Ending cash 10111.88 18628.26 13215.88 14783.43 44290.58

Check 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

FORECAST
2022 2023

11622.68 12552.49
3469.65 3864.46
-36975.81 -42522.18
-1867.61 -1543.23
76120.28 95150.35
222.95 1164.43
52592.13 68666.32

-734 -772

-734 -772

0.00 0.00
-0.03 0.01
0 0
0 0
-0.03 0.01

51858.45 67893.97
137735.19 205629.16
85876.74 137735.19

0.00 0.00