th

The 26 AIM International Workshop, September 3-4, 2020

Analysis of long-term strategy scenarios to achieve low carbon power sector by 2050
*1,2 1,3 1,2 1 1 1
Retno Gumilang Dewi , Ucok WR Siagian , Gissa N Sevie , Rias Parindera , Bintang B Yuwono , dan Iwan Hendrawan
1 2 3
Center for Research on Energy Policy, Chemical Engineering Department, Petroleum Engineering Deparment
Institut Teknologi Bandung, INDONESIA
*correspondence: gelangdewi@gmail.com or gelang@che.itb.ac.id

Introduction Result & Discussions

INDC 2030" Power Sector Development Scenario
“the Government of Indonesia (GOI) is committed to reduce the na onal B. Electricity projec on for each type of energy, 2010-2050
GHG emissions level in 2030 by 29% below its baseline emissions (uncondi onal) A. Electricity projec on for each type of technology, 2010 & 2050
and further up to 41% (condi onal) if there are interna onal supports.”
2500 2500
2500 2500
Coal
GHG emissions growth GHG emissions in energy sector (2018)
Baseline CM2 CM3
(Indonesia 1st BUR,2016) 700 Coal
CM1 Oil
Coal
3,000 600 Coal 2000 Natural gas
2000 Oil 2000 2000
GHG emissions, Mton CO2e

500 Electricity (Alloca on by Oil

power sector: 45.1% Natural gas Oil
2,500
of total GHG emissions
End Use Sector) Hydro
LPG
GHG Emissions, MillionTon CO 2e

400
Natural gas Natural gas
2,000 Biofuel Hydro
IPPU
300 1500 1500 Solar
1500 1500
Biomass Hydro Hydro
Waste 200 Solar

TWh
1,500
Wind

TWh

TWh
Agriculture

TWh
Petroleum Fuel Solar
1,000
Energy
Forestry
100

0
Natural gas
Power Sector: Wind
1000
Wind
Solar
1000
Biomass
Industry

Commercial

Other Sectors
Residen al
Electricity genera on

Transporta on

TOTAL

1000 Biomass 1000 Wind

500 Biomass
Geothermal

-
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Long-term strategy toward 2050 Geothermal
Geothermal

Biofuel
Biomass
Biofuel
500
500
Geothermal 500
500
Coal w/ CCS
The energy sector's emissions In the energy sector: Energy combus on ac vi es in
Biofuel
Biomass w/ CCS
grew at a rate of 4.5% annually,
power genera on poten al to be a major sources of GHG
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
0
Nuclear
the fastest emissions growth 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

rate compared to other sectors. emissions from energy category

· In the baseline scenario, the total electricity produc on is targeted at 2041 TWh (2050) which is
Methodology & Assumption assumed to be mostly produced by coal-fired power plants, which is 94.5% of total electricity produc on
while the contribu on of renewable energy plants is s ll rela vely small around 1.3%.
· In the CM1 and CM2 scenarios, na onal electricity produc on is s ll dominated by coal-fired power
Ÿ Model simulation was used to deliver an outlook and evaluate scenarios related to GHG emissions reduction, and energy plant. However, the por on will decrease to 1,542 TWh (75.6%) and 1,516 (74.3%) of total electricity
efciency potentials in power generation sectors. produc on in 2050, respec vely. It shows that coal-fired power plant is replaced by renewable energy
Technology mix in the skenario CM3 that will be drastically changed when and natural gas, and there is a decline in the opera on of oil-based power plants in 2050
compared to the baseline in 2050. The conventional coal generation technology
Ÿ The modelling tool used AIM/End-use (The Asian-Pacic Integrated Model) with GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling (sub-critic) will decrease significantly from the 94.5% baseline to 9.09%,
· In the more ambi ous mi ga on scenario (CM3), there is a shi of coal power plants dominance by
System) as the calculation software and solver. while all clean coal technology (Super / Ultra Super Critical, IGCC) and renewable energy genera on anD CCS technology that integrated with coal & biomass/BECCS.
Ÿ Base year and target year were set to year 2010 and 2030, respectivelly (in line with Indonesia's NDC scenarios and including CCS will increase to 37.05% in CM3
projection).
Biomass Power Sector GHG Emissions Abatement Cost Curve Analysis
Model Scenarios GHG emissions reduc on poten al
EL_BMS_ST

EL_BMS_BFB

EL_BMS_CFB
120
BMS EL_FC_BMS
EL_BMS_BECCS
3,000
EL_BMS_IGCC 1.27 1,881 100

Parameters Baseline CM1 CM2 CM3

EL_BMS_IGCC_CCS
1.20
1,800
1.15

GHG Emissions Reduc on, MillionTon CO 2e

Co-firing
EL_COF_DRC 2,500 80
GDP growth 5.50% EL_COF_PRL 1,600
BMS_1 EL_FC_BMS_1
EL_COF_IND
0.99

Abatement cost, US$/tCO2e

Economics structure Economic structure in 2030 is s ll the same as that of 2010 BMS BMS EL_FC_BMS_X
EL_FC_COF
0.96
60
BMS_2 EL_FC_BMS_2
COF COF EL_COF_PC_CCS
2,000 1,400
COL EL_FC_COL_X EL_COF_USC_CCS
0.90
GHG emissions. M llionTon CO2e
2010-2018 : Inventory data from DJK ESDM EL_COF_IGCC_CCS
40
1,200

Intensity (ton CO2e/MWh)

0.81
2019-2028 : Following RUPTL (2019-2028); EL_COL_SC_EXT
Coal 0.81 0.79 0.81 0.81
1,500
Electricity 2028-2030 : Interpolal on EL_COL_SBC_CCS 0.72 1,000 20
produc on EL_COL_USC
879
0.65
EL_COL_USC_CCS 0.60 800 0
2030-2050 :Based on electricity/capita growth of 6% EL_COL_SPC EL_FC_COL EL_ELY EL_ELY EL_LOSS ELY 1,000
640 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000
EL_COL_SPC_CCS 583
600
EL_COL_IGCC (20)

Refer to RUPTL and significantly EL_COL_IGCC_CCS

500
0.35 400
Share of energy in 400 336
Share of energy in Following RUPTL and increase the share of renewables Natural-gas
0.30 244 284 (40)
2030 is the same as Following RUPTL EL_NGS_ST
203
power more renewables energy ( based on the availability of EL_NGS_OC
200
that of 2010 81 81
renewable energy constraint) NGS EL_NGS_CC EL_FC_NGS
0 66 (60)
EL_NGS_GE
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Reduc on quan ty, MillionTon CO2e
EL_NGS_NGC_CCS 0
Baseline CM1 CM2 CM3
CM1 CM2 CM3 CM1 CM2 CM3 CM1 CM2 CM3 CM1 CM2 CM3 CM1 CM2 CM3
CPO EL_CPO_DE EL_FC_CPO
Geothermal, hydro, solar & wind, -500 0.00
No addi ons of Geothermal, hydro, Geothermal, hydro, EL_OIL_DE

Renewable energy renewable energy solar & wind, biomass, solar & wind, biomass,
biomass, biofuel, (more biomass for EL_OIL_ST EL_FC_OIL
Coal Oil Natural gas Biomass Coal w/ CCS Co-firing w/ CCS Biomass w/ CCS Intensity (ton CO2e/MWh)
2020 2030 2040 2050
OIL

genera on since 2010 biofuel biofuel

coal co-firing in 2030), begin to use EL_OIL_OC
Under CM1 and CM2, power sector could achieve a 22.4% and 24.6% emission
nuclear energy since 2040. EL_OIL_CC OIl

EL_HYD_LH
Hydro Note: reduction target (compared to the baseline scenario). This reduction could be
HYD EL_HYD_MD EL_FC_HYD
Energy 1. Without mitigation intervention, baseline scenario has increasing trend from 0.81 tCO2e/MWh to 1.27 tCO2e/MWh. achieved with negative average abatement cost by -7.83 US$/tCO2e and
Meanwhile, the CM1 and CM2 scenario intensity has decreasing trend until 2030. However the year above 2030,
EL_HYD_MN
Implementa on of -0.19 US$/ tCO 2 e, respectivelly. Meanwhile, greater carbon reductions
Efficiency Energy efficiency in Implementa on of More implementa on of low Geothermal Device
low carbon
renewable energy domination over electricity supply demand will not be significant compared to the increasing number
EL_GTM_LFD

improvement in 2030 is the same as low carbon

technology: USC, SC,
carbon technology: USC, SC, GTM
EL_GTM_SBC
EL_FC_GTM

Internal Energy/Service
(CM3; i.e., a 72.3% reduction) could be achieved with positive cost 1.11 US$/tCO2e.
coal fired plant that of 2010 technology: USC, SC
IGCC
IGCC EL_WND_SON Wind
of coal-fired power plant. On the contrary, the application of CSS integrated with coal and biomass power plant able to
WND EL_WND_LON EL_FC_WND Final Service
EL_WND_OFF positively reduce the intensity up to 0.35 tCO2e/MWh or declining 72.3% intensity level of baseline scenario in 2050.
Solar Energy/Service Flow

SOL
EL_SOL_PV

EL_SOL_PVR EL_FC_SOL
2. It appears that, mitigation efforts in the CM1, CM2 and CM3 scenarios provide significant GHG emission reduction targets
Advanced CCS is integrated with coal fired
Conclusion
EL_SOL_CSP

technology and biomass plants (BECCS)

Development of Indonesia's electricity sector structure in the AIM / end-use model

References o Significant potential of GHG emissions reduction is derived from mitigation efforts in each scenario mainly due to
1. Republic of Indonesia, “Indonesia: First Nationally Determined Contribution,” no. November, p. 18, 2016, [Online].
Available: http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/Indonesia First/First NDC Indonesia_submitted to reduced use of fossil fuels that have relatively high carbon emissions, maximizing share of renewable energy,
UNFCCC Set_November 2016.pdf. the use of clean coal technology for new plant, fuel switching to less carbon-emitting fuels, and the application of CCS.
2. ESDM, “Sektor Pasokan Energi Pembangkit dari Energi Baru (Indonesia 2050 Pathway Calculator),” Mini Pap., 2015. And the result of applying mitigation strategies in power sector will decrease the carbon intensity from
3. T. Morita, K. Jiang, T. Masui, and Y. Matsuoka, “2 . Long-term Scenarios based on AIM Model.”
1,27 tCO2e/MWh to 0.35 tCO2e/MWh (2050)

Acknowledgement Center for Research on Energy Policy

Support from National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Japan, Centre for Research on Energy Policy-
Institut Teknologi Bandung (CREP-ITB) Indonesia to carry out the study is highly appreciated.
Institut Teknologi Bandung-Indonesia