Materials Transactions, Vol. 49, No. 3 (2008) pp.

402 to 410
Special Issue on Emergent Researches for Substitution to and Effective Usage of Rare and Scarce Metals (1)
#2008 The Japan Institute of Metals

Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050*

Kohmei Halada, Masanori Shimada and Kiyoshi Ijima
Innovative Materials Engineering Laboratory, National Institute for Materials Science, Tsukuba 305-0047, Japan

Forecasts up to 2050 are made of consumption of the following metals: Fe, Al, Cu, Mn, Zn, Cr, Pb, Ni, Si, Sn, rare earths, Mo, Li, Sb, W,
Ag, Co, In, Au, Ga, Pt and Pd. The forecasts are based on the linear decoupling model of the relation between per capita metal consumption and
per capita GDP. The models of each metal are applied to the economic development model of BRICs and G6 countries. According to these
forecasts, the overall consumption of metals in 2050 will be five times greater than the current levels, and demand for metals, such as Au, Ag, Cu,
Ni, Sn, Zn, Pb and Sb, is expected to be several times greater than the amount of their respective reserves. Demand for Fe and Pt, which is
considered to be optimistic about the resource exhaustion, will also exceed the current reserves. Urgent measures are needed to find alternatives
from common resources and to shift into sound materials circulation society. [doi:10.2320/matertrans.ML200704]

(Received November 26, 2007; Accepted January 15, 2008; Published February 25, 2008)
Keywords: resource depletion, material consumption, economic development, reserve, reserve base

1. Introduction
The global demand of metal resources is increasing very
rapidly. Scenarios of resource consumption from a back-
casting viewpoint are required to reduce a resource supplying
risk. In order to prepare these scenarios, a forecasting of
resource consumption in a long term is necessary. ‘‘The
Global 2000 Report to the President’’1) was published at
1970s in the era of economic development. Forecasting
reports by Tilton2) and Cox3) were reported at 1990s in the era
of moderate growth. JOGMEC (Japan Oil, Gas and Metals
National Corporation) reported4) a medium-term forecast at
the latest days. JOGMEC’s report predicts that Cu con-
sumption will increase up to the range between 19 million
tons and 37 million tons, Pb will increase between 8.4 million
and 9.55 million tons, Zn between 11.6 million and 14
million tons, and Ni between 1.8 million to 2.7 million tons.
This paper makes a longer-term forecasting of the consump-
tion of several metals up to the year 2050 in order to
comprehend the degree of the resource supplying risk at the
current moment.
Since the Club of Rome proposed ‘‘Limits of Growth’’ in
1970, continuous upward growth has not been a prerequisite
of economic activities; rather, there has been a shift toward
low resource consumption-based growth because of limited
resources. The authors’ analyses of how the state of
decoupling has appeared in the consumption of individual
metals have revealed that most metals have reached a weak
state of decoupling.5) However, even though the state of
decoupling is required within the ‘‘Limits of Growth,’’ it was
necessary to examine if sufficient conditions existed within a
separate context. The results showed that not only economic
development and material consumption in the case of Si has
been moving from a state of coupling to decoupling, but
metals such as Cu and Fe are also headed toward a state of
decoupling, and demand is rising to construct a technological
base that can bring about an even greater state of decoupling.
In the 1960s, economic growth was limited to a relatively
*This Paper was Originally Published in Japanese in J. Japan Inst. Metals
71 (2007) 831–839.
few countries that had about 20% of the world’s population,
but economic growth today is occurring in heavily populated
countries on a global scale, and it is doubtful whether the
current process of decoupling will be able to react to the
subsequent explosive growth in consumption. The present
paper applies the authors’ model of per capita correlations of
the state of decoupling of various metals to estimated for
growth of so-called BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China),
which will be showing remarkable growth into the near
future, and the original G6 countries of Japan, USA, UK,
France, Germany, and Italy to estimate the consumption of
these metals until the year 2050. In addition, by looking at
how much demand for resources will exceed the present
reserve until the year 2050, this paper will be able to
contribute to the discussion on ‘‘Limits of Growth’’ from a
new time frame.
2. Methodology
Estimates of future population and GDP have been made
by various entities such as the United Nations.6) In October
2003, Goldman Sachs integrated estimates for GDP and
population between BRICs and G6 countries in a report titled
‘‘Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050’’.7) It should be
noted that this report was apparently the first to use the term
‘‘BRICs’’. Figure 1 shows estimated per capita GDP for each
country up to the year 2050, while Fig. 2 shows population
estimates for the countries. The per capita correlation for the
consumption of various metals, shown as coefficients in
Table 1 by referring to the author’s book,5) were used in the
following equations:
yM ¼ aM,0 x ðx < cM,1 Þ ð1Þ
yM ¼ aM,1 x þ bM,1 ðcM,1 < xÞ ð2Þ
Here, x shows the per capita GDP for each country in each
applicable year, and yM shows the per capita consumption of
a metal M. It should be noted that the right-side column of
Table 1 shows reserves and reserve bases of these metals for
the year 2005 in units of metal content (tons) based on data
from the United States Bureau of Mines. In addition, the
estimates for reserves of minerals are for the amounts which
 Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050 403

can be economically extracted with the present technology, 90000

US
while the reserve base refers to the amount of minerals which 80000
Brazil

GDP par capita, US$/capita

can technically be extracted but are not the object of 70000 Japan
China
India
extraction due to economic, political, and/or other reasons. 60000
France Russia
In addition, existing consumption is the cumulative amount 50000
UK France
Germany
consumed through 2004. These values were obtained from 40000
Italy
Italy
estimates made of total consumption up to 1989 in the 30000
Germany
Japan
UK
‘‘Global Resource Strategies Note’’,8) while the consumption 20000
Russia
China
Brazil US
data from 1990 onward were taken from the Mineral 10000
India

Resource Data Book.9) Furthermore, for items for which 0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
there are no cumulative values up to 1989, cumulative values Year

started with the first year listed in the Mineral Resource Data
Book. Fig. 1 Per capita GDP of each study country predicted by Goldman Sachs.
These data were used first to estimate the amount of each
metal consumed from 2005 onward, then the calculated
values for each country were added on to estimate con- 10000

sumption for 5-year time blocks. Furthermore, the consump- Brazil

India
tion of each metal for each year was interpolated from the 5- China China
India
year block data and totaled to derive the cumulative

Population, million
1000
US Russia
consumption for up to that year. Brazil France
Japan Russia
Germany
Italy
3. Results 100
Japan
Germany
UK France Italy
UK
Figures from Fig. 4 onward show the results of calcula- US
10
tions for predictions. The A graph shows the calculated 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
consumption of various metals for each year in a 5-year block
which have been added together and depicted as bar graphs Fig. 2 Population growth predicted by Goldman Sachs.
for consumption for each country. In the case of Fe, demand
is expected to rise steadily to nearly 2.5 billion tons/year by
2050, or about 5 times the current consumption. In addition,
looking at the make-up among nations, we can see the until 2030, and after that, growth of consumption in India is
increase in demand in the G6 countries slows down, but expected to become a dominant factor in overall Fe
China’s share of consumption will continue to rise steadily consumption. The B graph shows cumulative consumption.

Table 1 Factors of models and reserves of each metal.

Line A Line B Transition accumulate consumption Reserve
Type metal unit Reserve
aM,1 aM,2 bM,2 GDP$/capita unit 2004 base
I Au g/capita 0.00015
0:000069 5.16 23,900 2:82  1010 7:90  1010 1:80  1011
4 4
I Sn Kg/capita 0.000048
0:0000023 0.3 8,300 9:50  10 4:20  10 9:00  104
8 8
I Zn Kg/capita 0.0009
0:000031 6.7 7,200 4:19  10 4:70  10 9:40  108
8 10
I W g/capita 0.008
:0001 48.2 5,400 7:19  10 1:32  10 1:69  1010
7 6
I Cr Kg/capita 0.0006
0:00014 9.0 12,200 1:33  10 6:10  10 1:10  107
7 7
I Mn Kg/capita 0.0012
0:00012 13.6 10,300 3:77  10 6:20  10 1:40  108
4
I 0
Cu Kg/capita 0.00084 0 11.0 13,200 3:55  10 4:00  104
4 4
I 0
Pb Kg/capita 0.00062 0 2.8 4,600 1:02  10 3:55  10 4:00  104
6
II Fe Kg/capita 0.070 0.0066 336 10,700 8:25  10
II Al Kg/capita 0.0013 0.00054 10.6 13,800 2:29  103 1:50  104 1:00  106
II Ni Kg/capita 0.00012 0.000021 0.69 7,100 2800 6000
II Mo g/capita 0.0105 0.0023 61.4 10,700 1:51  107 7:00  106 1:30  107
II Sb g/capita 0.0094 0.00069 52.0 9,800 4:65  106 8:60  106 1:90  107
6 6
II Ag g/capita 0.0023 0.00045 10.6 5,600 4:57  10 1:80  10 3:90  106
8 8
II Pd g/capita 0.000025 0.0000082 0.19 11,300 9:83  10 8:10  10 1:80  109
6 6
III Pt g/capita 0.000013 0 — 4:42  10 4:10  10 1:10  107
8 8
III Si Kg/capita 0.000039 0 — 5:92  10 4:30  10 5:20  109
6 7
III 0
Co g/capita 0.0018 0.0028 0 — 1:52  10 8:80  10 1:50  108
6 6
III 0
RE g/capita 0.0022 0.0057 0 — 2:51  10 2:90  10 6:20  106
8 8
III 0
Ga g/capita 0.000016 0.000031 0 — 3:22  10 2:20  10 4:60  108
8 7
III 0
Li g/capita 0.0016 0.0030 0 — 1:70  10 6:70  10 1:40  108
5 5
III 0
In g/capita 0.000016 0.0007 0 — 6:43  10 2:70  10 5:70  105
404 K. Halada, M. Shimada and K. Ijima

A) A)
US 50,000 US
2,500,000 Cu

Metal consumption, kton/year

Fe UK UK
Metal consumption, kton/year

40,000
2,000,000 Japan Japan
Italy 30,000 Italy
1,500,000 Germany
Germany
20,000 France
1,000,000 France
Russia
Russia 10,000
500,000 India
India China
0
0 China 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil
year
year
B)
B)
250,000,000 1,800,000
1,600,000
200,000,000 1,400,000

Cu (K ton)
1,200,000
Fe (K ton)

150,000,000 1,000,000
800,000
100,000,000 600,000
400,000
50,000,000
200,000
0
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
year
year

Fig. 3-3 Cu
Fig. 3-1 Estimated consumption of Fe: A) annual, B) cumulative

A)
A)
45,000 US
80,000 Mn
Metal consumption, kton/year

Al US 40,000 UK
Metal consumption, kton/year

70,000 UK 35,000 Japan

60,000 Japan 30,000
Italy
50,000 Italy 25,000
Germany
40,000 Germany 20,000
15,000 France
30,000 France
10,000 Russia
20,000 Russia
India 5,000 India
10,000
China
0 China
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil
year
year

B) B)
7,000,000
20,000,000
18,000,000 6,000,000
16,000,000
5,000,000
Mn (K ton)

14,000,000
Al (K ton)

12,000,000 4,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000 3,000,000
6,000,000 2,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000 1,000,000
0
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
year

Fig. 3-2 Al
Fig. 3-4 Mn

The darker bottom sections of the bars depict the existing the same level as current reserves, so demand will rise to
cumulative consumption at 2005, while the lighter shaded withdraw from the existing economic system and develop
sections show the accumulated consumption that is predicted new materials.
for the applicable year. The solid line shows the sum of Figures 3 through 24 show estimated results, in identical
existing cumulative consumption and current reserves, while formats, of predicted consumption at the year 2050 of the
the dashed line depicts the sum of existing cumulative following metals: Al, Cu, Mn, Zn, Cr, Pb, Ni, Si, Sn, rare
consumption and reserve base. In the case of Fe, the earths, Mo, Li, Sb, W, Ag, Co, In, Au, Ga, Pt, and Pd,
cumulative consumption at 2050 is predicted to be at roughly respectively. It should be noted that since there were no
 Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050 405

A) A)
30,000 US 14,000 US
Zn Pb
Metal consumption, kton/year

Metal consumption, kton/year

25,000 UK 12,000 UK
Japan 10,000 Japan
20,000
Italy Italy
8,000
15,000 Germany Germany
6,000
10,000 France France
Russia 4,000 Russia
5,000 India 2,000 India
0 China 0 China
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil
year year

B) B)
1,400,000 700,000

1,200,000 600,000
500,000

Pb (K ton)
1,000,000
Zn (K ton)

800,000 400,000

600,000 300,000

400,000 200,000

200,000 100,000

0 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
year
year

Fig. 3-5 Zn Fig. 3-7 Pb

A)
A)
7,000 US
25,000 US Ni
Metal consumption, kton/year

Cr 6,000 UK
Metal consumption, kton/year

UK
20,000 5,000 Japan
Japan
Italy
15,000 Italy 4,000
Germany
Germany 3,000
10,000 France
France 2,000 Russia
5,000 Russia 1,000 India
India 0 China
0 China Brazil
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil
year
year

B) B)
250,000
3,000,000

2,500,000 200,000
Ni (K ton)
Cr (K ton)

2,000,000 150,000

1,500,000
100,000
1,000,000
50,000
500,000
0
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
year
year

Fig. 3-8 Ni
Fig. 3-6 Cr

reserve data available for Si, there is no reserve line for it in consumption in G6 is expected to remain large, even in 2050.
its figure. Nevertheless, BRICs will still likely account for more than
The consumption of all target metals is expected to 50% of total consumption of all of these metals.
increase until 2040. However, the decoupling effect should Looking at the relation between cumulative consumption
appear for Mn, Zn, Cr, Pb, and Sn, and their annual and present reserves, it appears that consumption of only a
consumption should decrease. The main consumers of these few metals, i.e., Fe, Al, Cr, Co, and rare earths, will be at or
metals are expected to shift from G6 to BRICs. However, in below the present reserve levels. Furthermore, the current
the cases of Si, Li, In, Ga, Pt, and Pd, the share of reserves of Fe will likely be depleted by 2050. At the same
406 K. Halada, M. Shimada and K. Ijima

A) A)
6,000 US 900 US
Si Re
Metal consumption, kton/year

Metal consumption, kton/year

UK 800 UK
5,000
Japan 700 Japan
4,000 Italy 600
Italy
500
3,000 Germany Germany
400
2,000 France France
300
Russia 200 Russia
1,000
India 100 India
0 China 0 China
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil
year year

B) B)
140,000 160,000

120,000 140,000

100,000 120,000

RE (K ton)
Si (K ton)

100,000
80,000
80,000
60,000
60,000
40,000
40,000
20,000
20,000
0
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
year
year

Fig. 3-9 Si
Fig. 3-11 Rare earths

A) A)
1,200 US 600 US
Sn
Metal consumption, kton/year

Mo
Metal consumption, kton/year

1,000 UK
500 UK
Japan Japan
800 400
Italy Italy
600 Germany 300 Germany
400 France France
200
Russia Russia
200 India 100
India
0 China 0 China
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil
year year

B) B)
50,000 25,000
45,000
40,000 20,000
Sn (K ton)

35,000
Mo (K ton)

30,000 15,000
25,000
20,000
10,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
5,000
0
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year year

Fig. 3-10 Sn Fig. 3-12 Mo

time, demand for In, Sn, Ag, Zn, Pb, Au, Cu, Ni and Pd will and reserves more understandable, expected cumulative
likely exceed the reserve base. While consumption of most of consumption at 2020 was compared with the present
these metals is expected to slacken off after 2040, the state of reserves, as shown in Fig. 4. The downward-extending bars
decoupling will probably not be achieved due to the in the figure represent today’s reserves. The upper bars
limitations of resources expressed in the reserve base. indicate the reserve base when reserves are set at 1. When an
upward-extending bar graph crosses the 1 line, it signifies
4. Discussion that the amount of current reserves has been depleted; when it
passes a bar, it means that the reserve base has been depleted.
In order to make the relation between metals consumption By 2020, it is predicted that the cumulative consumption of
 Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050 407

A) A)
450 US 140 US
Li W
Metal consumption, kton/year

Metal consumption, kton/year

400 UK UK
120
350 Japan
100 Japan
300 Italy Italy
250 80
Germany Germany
200 60
150 France France
100 Russia 40 Russia
50 India 20 India
0 China 0 China
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil
year year

B) B)
18,000 10,000
16,000 9,000
14,000 8,000
12,000 7,000
Li (K ton)

W (K ton)
10,000 6,000
8,000 5,000
6,000 4,000
4,000 3,000
2,000 2,000
1,000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
year
Fig. 3-13 Li
Fig. 3-15 W

A)
A)
350 US
Sb 120 US
Metal consumption, kton/year

300 UK Ag
Metal consumption, kton/year

Japan 100 UK
250
Italy Japan
200 80
Italy
Germany
150 60 Germany
France
100 40 France
Russia
50 Russia
India 20
0 India
China
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 China
Brazil
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil
year
year
B)
14,000 B)
4,000
12,000
3,500
10,000
Sb (K ton)

3,000
Ag (K ton)

8,000 2,500
6,000 2,000

4,000 1,500
1,000
2,000
500
0
0
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year year

Fig. 3-14 Sn Fig. 3-16 Ag

In, Ag and Pb will be exceeded the current reserves, and the Figure 5 shows that in 2050, the situation will be even
present reserves of Au, Cu and Sn will be depleted. In fact, more gloomy. The current reserves of nearly all metals will
Ag will already be experiencing immense pressure on its have become depleted, and even the reserve base will be
reserve base by that time. In the case of In, consumption at exceeded. In the previously mentioned case of In, the metal
that time is expected to have grown to 20 times the current has a relatively short history and there is plenty of room for
reserves, so it will not be possible to meet demand unless technical reconsiderations about its use as a resource,
sufficient technological advances are made and/or drastic extracting and smelting technologies, etc. But this is not
revisions are made in target resources. the case for Cu, Au, Ag, etc., for which extraction and
408 K. Halada, M. Shimada and K. Ijima

A) A)
450 US 12 US
Co Au
Metal consumption, kton/year

Metal consumption, kton/year

400 UK UK
10
350 Japan Japan
300 Italy 8
Italy
250
Germany 6 Germany
200
150 France 4 France
100 Russia Russia
2 India
50 India
0 China 0 China
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil
year year

B) B)
30,000 400
350
25,000
300

Au (K ton)
Co (K ton)

20,000 250
200
15,000
150
10,000 100
50
5,000
0
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 year
year
Fig. 3-19 Au
Fig. 3-17 Co

A)
A)
5 US
12 US Ga
Metal consumption, kton/year

In UK
Metal consumption, kton/year

UK 4
10 Japan
Japan
8 3 Italy
Italy
Germany
6 Germany 2 France
4 France
1 Russia
Russia
2 India
India 0 China
0 China 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil
year
year
B)
B) 1,200
250
1,000
200
Ga (K ton)

800
In (K ton)

150
600
100 400

50 200

0
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

year year

Fig. 3-18 In Fig. 3-20 Ga

processing technologies have already matured. Regarding and recycling technologies so that once used resources can be
metals for which mines have been developed and exploration used again.
is being undertaken on a global scale, dramatic technological It should be noted that two factors can affect the accuracy
innovations like those which were made up to the 20th of these predictions. One is the applicability of the per capita
century are needed to make extremely effective device correlation values between metal consumption and GDP; the
designs and material designs to match consumption and other the accuracy of the Goldman Sachs predictions. In the
use patterns. Demand is also rising for technological case of the former, we can get a good idea of the accuracy by
development of alternative resources that still have some considering the error between actual data obtained for metal
latitude like Al, and for all-out efforts to develop alternative consumption, GDP, and population, and predictions based on
 Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050 409

12.5
A) 3
Reserves base

Accumulation consumption / Reserves, Comparatively

2.0 US
Pt
Metal consumption, kton/year

2
UK
1.5 Japan

Reserves
1
Italy
1.0 Germany
0
France Fe Al Cu Mn Zn Cr Pb Ni Sn RE Mo Li Co Sb Ag W Au In Ga Pd Pt
0.5 Russia
−1
India
0.0 China
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil −2

year Existing mining quantity

−3

B) Metals
60

50 Fig. 4 The relation between cumulative demand and existing reserves by

2020.
Pt (K ton)

40

30
10.3 72
20 7

Accumulation consumption / Reserves, Comparatively

6
10
5

0 4
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
3

year 2

1
Fig. 3-21 Pt
0
Fe Al Cu Mn Zn Cr Pb Ni Sn RE Mo Li Co Sb Ag W Au In Ga Pd Pt
−1

−2

−3
A)
3 US Metals
Metal consumption, kton/year

Pd UK
Japan Fig. 5 The relation between cumulative demand and existing reserves by
2 Italy 2050.
Germany
1 France
Russia
Fe
India 1.6
Al Al
0 China Cu
1.5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil Ni
calculated consumption at the year 2000

Zn
year 1.4
Pb
Pb Pt
B) 1.3
50 Pt Fe
Fe Al
1.2
Fe Pb Cu
40 Cu
Ni Ni
Pd (K ton)

1.1
Al Zn
30
Consumption index to

Zn Pb
1
Zn Cu Pt
20
0.9
10
0.8
Pt(industrial)
0 0.7
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Ni
0.6
year
0.5
Fig. 3-22 Pd 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
the per capita correlation values. Moreover, the accuracy of Fig. 6 Comparison between real annual consumption and calculated
growth predictions can be understood by comparing them consumption.
with actual data from 2004. In Fig. 6, some calculated results
(for 2000 to 2005) for Fe, Al, Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb, and Pt are
plotted as a solid line against data from 2000 and 2004 (2003 Zn, Ni, and Pt. Regarding Zn, actual growth trend was larger
for Fe, 2005 for Al and Pt). Trends in actual consumption than the predicted trend, but there was little difference
were roughly the same or slightly higher than predicted between the actual and model values, so it appears that
values, and, while it is for a short period, the increase in downward error will disappear in the future. In addition, the
consumption was at or above the predicted level. Discrep- error in the Pt values was likely caused by the fact that actual
ancies between the model and values for 2000 were seen with values for Pt for both 2000 and 2004 were only for industrial
410 K. Halada, M. Shimada and K. Ijima
uses, while the consumption model included demand for Pt
for jewelry. In the case of Ni discrepancies, upon close
inspection it appears that the cause huge differences between
actual and predicted values for the United States and
European countries. This is because the main use of Ni is
as a material for providing corrosion resistance in stainless
steel, etc., and the consumption model for high-temperature,
high-humidity Japan does not correspond with the consump-
tion structure for the United States and Europe. However,
given that three of the BRICs have corrosive environments
that are as bad as or worse than Japan’s, it appears that the
Japanese model will have much greater compatibility in the
future.
Thus, investigation of the factors affecting the accuracy of
the prediction models have shown that there are few factors
that result in excessive evaluations by the models at the
present time. As shown in Fig. 5, the current reserves, and
even the reserve base will be greatly exceeded by demand by
2050, so it will be necessary to resolve issues related to
demand for metal consumption. In other words, demand will
arise to make a concerted effort to reduce use and increase
utilization efficiency, devise alternative materials which can
manifest the same functions using elements in resource
groups having high universality, and quickly develop
technologies for recycling resources that are extracted from
the ground used one time. To put it another way, as in
agriculture where self-generating plants will be almost
completely non-existent in the future, there will only be a
very few cases where metal resources will be extracted from
the ground. Rather, most resources will be man-made
products or by-products, and it can be said that pressure is
growing to shift relatively quickly to a system where
resources are obtained from intermediate processed goods.
5. Concluding Remarks
The development of BRICs is leading to such demand for
materials that by 2050, consumption of these materials will
be 5 times what it is today. This will make it impossible to
meet the demand solely with existing resource reserves.
Furthermore, it is predicted that the consumption of some
metals will even exceed their reserve base, so demand will
rise to reconsider the use of these resources, and develop
revolutionary new means of acquiring and recycling resour-
ces. Compared with increasing demand for such materials,
the sustainability of decoupling at the current GDP level of
the G6 countries would be much farther away, so demand is
rising to quickly further entrench decoupling with revolu-
tionary technological innovations.
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