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Klaster Penularan Covid-19 08072020
Klaster Penularan Covid-19 08072020
Klaster Penularan Covid-19 08072020
Covid-19
Muh. Firdaus Kasim
Departemen Kedokteran Komunitas & Pencegahan, Fakultas Kedokteran Universitas Hasanuddin
Kepala Bidang Penelitian & Inovasi Rumah Sakit Universitas Hasanuddin
1. Proses Penularan Covid-19
2. Angka Dispersi (k) &
Superspreading Covid-19
3. Analisa Klaster Penularan Covid-
Topik 19
4. Pencegahan Penularan Covid-19
Berdasarkan Analisa Klaster
Proses
Penularan
Covid-19
1/4
Rute Penularan Utama:
Percikan Dahak (Droplet) &
1,5 m
Sentuhan Permukaan (Fomite)
Morawska, L. and Cao, J. (2020) ‘Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2: The world should face the reality’, Environment International. doi:
10.1016/j.envint.2020.105730.
Tellier, R. et al. (2019) ‘Recognition of aerosol transmission of infectious agents: A commentary’, BMC Infectious Diseases. BioMed Central
Ltd., pp. 101–101. doi: 10.1186/s12879-019-3707-y.
Risiko Penularan Per Individu
Asadi, S. et al. (2019) ‘Aerosol emission and superemission during human He, X. et al. (2020) ‘Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and
speech increase with voice loudness’, Scientific Reports. Nature Publishing transmissibility of COVID-19’, Nature Medicine. Nature Research, 26(5),
Group, 9(1), pp. 1–10. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-38808-z. pp. 672–675. doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-0869-5.
Transmisi Covid-19 dan Pencegahannya
Percikan Jaga
Dahak jarak
Sentuhan Cuci
permukaan tangan
Gunakan
Aerosol
masker
Angka Dispersi (k)
& Superspreading
Covid-19
2/4
Kupferschmidt, K. (2020) ‘Why do
some COVID-19 patients infect
many others, whereas most don’t
spread the virus at all?’, Science.
doi: 10.1126/science.abc8931.
Angka Reproduksi Covid (R0) = 2.6
Seorang penderita rata-rata menularkan ke 2-3 org lain
Angka Reproduksi
https://www.thebonza.com/das
hboard
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2014/10/02/352983774/no-seriously-
how-contagious-is-ebola
Angka Dispersi (k)
k = heterogenitas transmisi
Lloyd-Smith, J. O. et al. (2005) ‘Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on
disease emergence’, Nature. Nature Publishing Group, 438(7066), pp. 355–359. doi:
10.1038/nature04153.
Angka Dispersi (k) Covid-19
(10% penderita menghasilkan 80% dari total kasus)
Endo A, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working
Group, Abbott S et al. Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak
sizes outside China [version 2]. Wellcome Open Res 2020, 5:67 (doi:
10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15842.2)
Analisa Klaster
Penularan
Covid-19
3/4
Lokasi Klaster
Penularan
Covid-19 hingga
20 April 2020
Area 3-C
• Nishiura, H. et al. (2020) ‘Closed
environments facilitate secondary
(Area
2020.02.28.20029272. doi:
10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272.
Tertutup)
Risiko:
1. Kepadatan
2. Duduk selama > 15 menit
(Kontak Erat)
Diskusi