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Evaluating Financials in State of Panic
Evaluating Financials in State of Panic
Evaluating Financials
In a State of Panic
Financial Stocks in Free Fall
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) Citigroup Inc. (C)
29-Dec-2006 to 27-Nov-2007 (Daily) High: 86.180 29-Dec-2006 to 27-Nov-2007 (Daily) High: 56.280
U.S. Dollar Low: 49.060 U.S. Dollar Low: 29.600
Last: 60.110 Last: 29.960
85 55
80
50
75
70 45
65 40
60
35
55
50 30
9 35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Data Source: Prices / Exshare ©FactSet Research Systems 2007 Data Source: Prices / Exshare ©FactSet Research Systems 2007
25
Volume in Millions (max/avg) Volume in Millions (max/avg)
71 85
7 5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Data Source: Prices / Exshare ©FactSet Research Systems 2007 Data Source: Prices / Exshare ©FactSet Research Systems 2007
1
Financials Stocks are Extremely Cheap
U.S. Financial Stocks* Relative Price-to-Book Ratio 1965 through Late-November 2007
Current
1990
Beginning 2007
1999 - 2000
2
Subprime Borrower – Not All Deadbeats
3
Subprime Borrower – Not All Deadbeats
4
GSE’s Credit Portfolios are Very High Quality
FRE Credit Guarantee Portfolio at September 2007
5% Other
100
Above* 17 16 42 61 1% Option ARM
80%
75 9% Interest Only
5% Hybrid ARM
50
Below
80%
LTV 25 83 84 58 39
80%
Fixed
0
FRE Current FRE at U.S. Market Alt- U.S. Market
Origination A 2006 VintageSubprime 2006
at Origination Vintage at
Origination
Weighted
Average Loan 60% 73% 81% 85%
to Value
*Credit enhancement required for GSE origination above 80% LTV by charter
Source: Freddie Mac
5
FRE’s Credit Portfolio Continues to Perform Well
90 Day Delinquency Rate
1.00%
0.75%
0.50%
0.25%
2004 Sept 2007
6
FRE Profitability
(basis points)
Current
Expected Actual
Market
Fees 20 20 28
Operating Margin 10 5 19
Retained Portfolio
OAS 25 65
7
FRE – Calculation of Earnings Power
Implied Normal
Fair Value
ROE Earnings
$31
8
FRE Earnings Power
$5B @ $1B
Common Equity Issued 0
$20/share @$25/share
Source: ?
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Further Information
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Management.
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