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Incorporating Production Planning in Business Planning
Incorporating Production Planning in Business Planning
Incorporating Production Planning in Business Planning
To cite this article: Ying I. Chien & Wayne H. J. Cunningham (2000) Incorporating production planning in business
planning: A linked spreadsheet approach, Production Planning & Control: The Management of Operations, 11:3,
299-307, DOI: 10.1080/095372800232261
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PRODUCTION PLANNING & CONTROL, 2000, VOL. 11, NO. 3, 299 ± 307
Keywords sales forecasting, production planning, cash and make a pro® t. To develop a good business plan,
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Production Planning & Control ISSN 0953± 7287 print/ISSN 1366± 5871 online © 2000 Taylor & Francis Ltd
http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/tf/09537287.html
300 Y . I. Chien and W. H. J . Cunning ham
Aggregate production planning is concerned with the forecast sales (in units) of an aggregate product, i.e. a
process of determining aggregate levels of production for product family. These forecast sales units are transmitted
a number of time periods (monthly or quarterly) in the to the aggregate production planning module for devel-
medium-range horizon (typically the next 12± 24 oping production plans. The layout of this module is
months) . Decisions on long-range changes in capacity, illustrated with the example in table 1. It can be easily
e.g. new plant and equipment, are not considered in adjusted for di erent time horizons.
this planning horizon because these decisions generally Table 1 consists of three sections. Section 1 of the
require longer lead times. Within the upper limit of the spreadsheet (rows 1± 39) is for data entries and calcula-
® xed capacity, the production capacity of the ® rm can be tions of monthly sales averages, seasonal indexes and
adjusted during the medium-range planning horizon by deseasonalized sales. Section 2 (rows 40± 55) displays
varying such factors as workforce size, workforce utiliza- the regression output for trend analysis. Section 3 (rows
tion, product family inventory and the use of subcontrac- 57± 67) is reserved for sales forecasts calculations. These
tors. The objectives of aggregate production planning are sales forecasts may be adjusted by marketing or sales
then to: (i) develop ¯ exible and optimal (if achievable) managers in accordance with speci® c sales plans. For ex-
plans which satisfy the expected aggregate demand for ample, the marketing manager can modify the forecasts if
the ® rm’ s products; and (ii) ensure that resources are speci® c sales promotions, price changes or new market
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used e ectively and that costs are kept as low as possible. entries are planned.
It is important to note that aggregate demand forecasts
and sales plans provide the critical demand component of
the aggregate production plan. 3.2. Aggregate production planning module ( APPM )
Cash budgeting, an important ® nancial planning
activity, shows the projected cash in¯ ows and out¯ ows The APPM may include various alternative aggregate
over some speci® ed period of time. Generally, ® rms use a production plans for consideration. For illustration, three
monthly cash budget to make ® nancial forecasts for the plans are presented in the example template shown in
next six± 12 months, plus a more detailed daily or weekly table 2. These plans are: (i) a constant workforce, short-
cash budget for the coming month. The cash budget can, age ® lled by backorders; (ii) a constant workforce, short-
therefore, pinpoint the ® rm’s cash position in each per- age ® lled by overtime; and (iii) a variable workforce
iod. From the planning horizon perspective , aggregate plan. This module allows the operations manager to ex-
production planning and cash budgets are very similar amine overall costs of the production plans being com-
in the sense that both deal with business planning in the pared to help determine the `best’ plan acceptable to the
medium term. ® rm. Individual cost categories, e.g. inventory costs,
The intent of this paper is to present a means of inte- overtime costs, etc. as well as other issues of interest
grating sales forecasts/sales plans, aggregate production (e.g. workforce levels, overtime requirements) can also
planning (a medium-range production plan) and cash be investigated.
budgeting through the use of microcomputer-base d The preliminary information necessary to permit com-
spreadsheet technology. parison of the various production plans is shown in rows
1± 10. This is followed by a large section (rows 12± 83) for
modelling and analysing the three alternative plans.
2. A pproach Aggregate demand and sales prices in each month of
the planning horizon are obtained from SFM. In
The integrated planning system includes three di er-
EX CEL, e.g. this is accomplished by using the `copy
ent spreadsheet modules: sales forecasting, aggregate pro-
and paste link’ commands to link the range of cells
duction planning and cash budgeting. These three
which give seasonalized forecasts and sales prices to
modules are stand-alone spreadsheet templates, which
each of the three production plans.
are linked through spreadsheet ® le-linking procedures.
Rows 85± 96 are reserved for cost comparisons of the
The layout of each module and its sample template
three plans. The operations manager can compare the
using EX CEL is described below.
costs by category, the total costs of the three plans, and
other factors, e.g. an objective of stable employment
3. The integrated spreadsheet modules before the desired plan is selected. In the example, the
least total cost plan is selected. Should the manager want
3.1. Sales forecasting module ( SFM ) to choose one of the other plans, all that needs to be done
is to indicate the number of the selected plan.
The example template for the sales forecasting module The last part of this module template (rows 98± 107 ) is
adopts the classical time series decomposition method to a special transmittal table. It contains the cost informa-
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A B C D E F G
1 Demand Monthly Seasonal Deseasonalized
2 Year Month (units) average index sales Time
302
T able 1 continued
40 Summary output
41 Regression statistics
42 Multiple R 0.82
43 R Square 0.67
44 Adjusted R square 0.66
45 Standard error 133.89
46 Observations 36.00
47 ANOVA
48 df SS MS F Signi cance
49 Regression 1.00 1 222 513.97 1 222 513.97 68.20 0.00
50 Residual 34.00 609 497.92 17 926.41
51 Total 35.00 1 832 011.88
52
53 Coe cients Standard Error t-State P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
54 Intercept 4297.10 45.58 94.28 0.00 4204.48 4389.73 4204.48 4389.73
55 X variable 17.74 2.15 8.26 0.00 13.37 22.10 13.37 22.10
56
57 Sales Forecasts:
58 Year 4
59 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
60 Time 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Y . I. Chien and W. H. J . Cunning ham
61 Trend
62 forecasts 4953 4971 4989 5007 5024 5042 5060 5078 5095 5113 5131 5149
63 Seasonal
64 index 0.94 1.06 1.08 0.96 0.94 1.00 1.03 1.07 1.02 0.97 0.94 1.00
65 Seasonalized
66 forecast (units) 4634 5274 5401 4827 4721 5033 5216 5436 5174 4940 4813 5138
67 Sales price ($) 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140
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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N
1 Preliminary information
2 Workforce and inventory Costs
3 Current # of workers 50 $10.00 Hourly wage rate
4 Labour hours/unit 2.0 15.00 Overtime cost/hour
5 Production rate (units/day/worker) 4.0 1.00 Inventory carrying cost/unit/period
6 Beginning inventory (units) 100 3.00 Backorder or shortage cost/unit/period
7 Target ending inventory (units) 110 300.00 Hiring cost/worker
8 (end of planning horizon) 200.00 Layo cost/worker
9 Overtime limit 26 10.00 Material cost/unit
10 (% of regular output)
11
12 Plan 1: Constant workforce, shortage ® lled by backordering
13 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total
14 Demand 4634 5274 5401 4827 4721 5033 5216 5436 5174 4940 4813 5138 60 607
15 Work days 23 20 21 22 23 20 23 22 21 23 21 22 261
16 # of workers 58.06 58.06 58.06 58.06 58.06 58.06 58.06 58.06 58.06 58.06 58.06 58.06 697
17 # of workers (rounded) 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 708
18 Regular output 5428 4720 4956 5192 5428 4720 5428 5192 4956 5428 4956 5192 61 596
19 O.T. units 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 Begin inv. 100 894 340 (105) 260 967 653 865 621 403 891 1035 6925
21 End inv. 894 240 (105) 260 967 653 865 621 403 891 1035 1089 7914
22 Sales (units) 4634 5274 5296 4932 4721 5033 5216 5436 5174 4940 4813 5138
23 Sales price ($) 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140
24 Sales revenue ($) 648 711 738 408 741 441 690 488 660 944 704 688 730 294 761 031 724 361 691 545 673 755 719 355
25 Cost analysis
Incorporating production planning in business planning
26 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total
27 Work force change 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
28 Hire cost 2700 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2700
29 Layo cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30 Regular wages 108 560 94 400 99 120 103 840 108 560 94 400 108 560 103 840 99 120 108 560 99 120 103 840 1 231 920
31 O.T. cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
32 Inv. holding cost 894 340 0 260 967 653 865 621 403 891 1035 1089 8019
33 Short cost 0 0 315 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 315
34 Material cost 54 280 47 200 49 560 51 920 54 280 47 200 54 280 51 920 49 560 54 280 49 560 51 920 615 960
35 Period total 166 434 141 940 148 995 156 020 163 807 142 253 163 705 156 381 149 083 163 731 149 715 156 849 1 858 914
continued
303
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304
T able 2 continued
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total
49 Cost analysis
50 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total
51 Workforce change 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
52 Hire cost 2700 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2700
53 Layo cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
54 Regular wages 108 560 94 400 99 120 103 840 108 560 94 400 108 560 103 840 99 120 108 560 99 120 103 840 1 231 920
55 O. T. cost 0 0 3150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3150
56 Inv. holding cost 894 340 0 365 1072 758 970 726 508 997 1140 1194 8964
57 Short cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
58 Material cost 54 280 47 200 50 610 51 920 54 280 47 200 54 280 51 920 49 560 54 280 49 560 51 920 617 010
59 Period total 166 434 141 940 152 881 156 125 163 912 142 358 163 810 156 486 149 188 163 837 149 820 156 954 1 863 745
Y . I. Chien and W. H. J . Cunning ham
T able 2 continued
73 Cost analysis
74 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total
75 Workforce change 0 16 (2 ) (9 ) ( 4) 13 (7 ) 5 (1 ) ( 7) 3 2 9
76 Hire cost 0 4800 0 0 0 3900 0 1500 0 0 900 600 11 700
77 Layo cost 0 0 400 1800 800 0 1400 0 200 1400 0 0 6000
78 Regular wages 92 000 105 600 107 520 96 800 93 840 102 400 104 880 109 120 102 480 99 360 95 760 103 840 1 213 600
79 O.T. costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
80 Inv. holding cost 66 72 47 60 31 117 145 165 115 143 119 173 1254
81 Short cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
82 Material cost 46 000 52 800 53 760 48 400 46 920 51 200 52 440 54 560 51 240 49 680 47 880 51 920 606 800
83 Period total 138 066 163 272 161 727 147 060 141 591 157 617 158 865 165 345 154 035 150 583 144 659 156 533 1 839 354
85 Cost Comparison
86 Plan 1 2 3
87 Hire cost 2700 2700 11 700
88 Layo cost 0 0 6000
89 Regular wages 1 231 920 1 231 920 1 213 600
90 O.T. cost 0 3150 0
91 Inv. holding cost 8019 8964 1254
92 Short cost 315 0 0
93 Material cost 615 960 617 010 606 800
94 Total 1 858 914 1 863 745 1 839 354
95 min
96 Type selected plan number (1, 2 or 3) 3
97
Incorporating production planning in business planning
98 Transmittal table (cost and revenue information of the least cost plan)
99 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total
100 Hire cost 0 4800 0 0 0 3900 0 1500 0 0 900 600 11 700
101 Layo cost 0 0 400 1800 800 0 1400 0 200 1400 0 0 6000
102 Regular wages 92 000 105 600 107 520 96 800 93 840 102 400 104 880 109 120 102 480 99 360 95 760 103 840 1 213 600
102 O.T. cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
104 Inv. holding cost 66 72 47 60 31 117 145 165 115 143 119 173 1254
105 Short cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
106 Material cost 46 000 52 800 53 760 48 400 46 920 51 200 52 440 54 560 51 240 49 680 47 880 51 920 606 800
107 Sales revenue 648 711 738 408 756 143 675 786 660 944 704 688 730 294 761 031 724 361 691 545 673 755 719 255
305
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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O
1 Preliminary information
2 Before-tax return on surplus funds 6.00%
3 Before-tax cost of loans outstanding 10.00% Monthly expenses:
4 Collections: Gen. & adm. salaries $300 000
5 Discount allowed for sale month 1% Lease payment $100 000
6 Misc. expenses $90 000
7 Sale month (take disc. ) 15% Tax rate 30.00%
8 Month following sale 80% Initial cash $235 000
9 Second month following sale 5% Min. cash balance $300 000
10 Year 3 4
11 Month 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
12 Sales revenue 689 243 760 235 648 711 738 408 756 143 675 786 660 944 704 688 730 294 761 031 724 361 691 545 673 755 719 355
13 Collections:
14 Month of sale 102 353 112 895 96 334 109 654 112 287 100 354 98 150 104 646 108 449 113 013 107 568 102 694 100 053 106 824
15 1 month after sale 551 394 608 188 518 969 590 726 604 915 540 629 528 755 563 750 584 235 608 825 579 489 553 236 539 004
16 2 months after sale 34 462 38 012 32 436 36 920 37 807 33 789 33 047 35 234 36 515 38 052 36 218 34 577
17 Total collections 738 984 666 634 735 449 742 189 676 586 667 191 705 246 732 482 752 907 720 235 689 506 680 405
18 After-tax return on surplus funds 0 161 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
19 Total cash receipts 738 984 666 795 735 449 742 189 676 597 667 191 705 246 732 482 752 907 720 235 689 506 680 405
20 Cash payments:
21 Hire cost 0 4800 0 0 0 3900 0 1500 0 0 900 600
22 Layo cost 0 0 400 1800 800 0 1400 0 200 1400 0 0
23 Regular wages 92 000 105 600 107 520 96 800 93 840 102 400 104 880 109120 102 480 99 360 95 760 103 840
24 O.T. cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25 Inv. holding cost 66 72 47 60 31 117 145 165 115 143 119 173
Y . I. Chien and W. H. J . Cunning ham
26 Short cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
27 Material 46 000 52 800 53 760 48 400 46 920 51 200 52 440 54 560 51 240 49 680 47 880 51 920
28 Administrative salaries 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000
29 Lease payment 100 000 100 000 100 000 100 000 100 000 100 000 100 000 100 000 100 000 100 000 100 000 100 000
30 Misc. expenses 90 000 90 000 90 000 90 000 90 000 90 000 90 000 90 000 90 000 90 000 90 000 90 000
31 Interest pd on bonds 0 0 0 90 000 0 0 0 0 90 000 0 0 0
32 Income taxes 0 0 80 000 0 0 80 000 0 0 80 000 0 0 80 000
33 Dividends paid 0 75 000 0 0 75 000 0 0 75 000 0 0 75 000 0
34 After-tax int. on loans outstanding 0 0 91 70 0 157 510 184 173 530 69 187
35 Total cash payments 628 066 728 272 731 818 727 130 706 591 727 774 649 375 730 529 814 208 641 114 709 728 726 720
36 Net cash gain (loss) for month 110 917 (61 477) 3631 15 060 (29 994) (60 583) 55 871 1963 (61 301) 79 121 (20 221) (46 314)
37 Cash at beg. of month w/o borrowing 235 000 345 917 284 441 288 072 303 131 273 137 212 554 268 425 270 378 209 077 288 198 267 977
38 Cumulative cash w/o borrowing 345 917 284 441 288 072 303 131 273 137 212 554 268 425 270 378 209 077 288 198 267 977 221 662
39 Less: minimum cash balance 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000 300 000
40 Tot. loans out. to maint. target 0 (15 559) (11 928) 0 (26 863) (87 446 ) (31 575) (29 622) (90 923) (11 802) (32 023) (78 338)
41 Surplus cash 45 917 0 0 3131 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Incorporating production planning in business planning 307
tion and sales revenue of the selected production plan. 4. Summary and conclusion
Detailed costs and sales revenue are transmitted to the
cash budgeting module using the ® le-linking procedure. This paper presents a spreadsheet-base d system of link-
ing the sales forecast/sales plan, production plan and
® nancial plan. The integration of planning information
3.3. Cash budgeting module ( CBM ) in these three major management functions is essential for
e ective business planning. The system can be used as a
The structure of the CBM template mirrors the frame- simulation model to examine various alternative strate-
work of the cash budget spreadsheet in Brigham et al. gies in developing an integrated business plan.
(1988 ) . It receives forecast sales revenues and detailed Because of its simplicity and ¯ exibility, the system can
costs of the adopted production plan from the APPM be easily adapted for application in business. It can also
through the ® le-linking procedure. It then forecasts be used as educational material in academics and busi-
in¯ ows and out¯ ows of cash within the ® rm over the ness to demonstrate the integration of the three planning
same planning horizon as that of the production plan. functions.
It predicts the timing and amount of funds that the
® rm needs to borrow to support the sales plan and pro-
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