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Project Evaluation:: 1. Introduction & Purpose
Project Evaluation:: 1. Introduction & Purpose
3:
Project Evaluation:
Dr Micheál Collins
mlcollin@tcd.ie
1. Introduction & Purpose
2. Key Questions
3. Thinking about ‘Costs’ (& More)
4. Project Evaluation Methodologies: An Overview
5. When/What to use
6. National Guidelines
7. CBA Explained (in brief)
8. Reading/References for this lecture
1
2. Key Questions
• No project is adopted unless it has answered these
questions:
• Are there better ways to achieve this objective?
• Are there better uses for these resources?
• This implies:
• exploring options/alternatives
• comparing options/alternatives
• justifying a project (even if no alternatives offered)
• is it welfare enhancing (costs < benefits)?
• Key challenge:
• in order to make comparisons between options
• find a common unit of value for everything
• in general: €
• but, return to this…
2
An illness:
Transport project:
Direct Costs
Indirect Costs
Intangible Costs
• A few other issues at the outset:
• Time horizons
• some brief, some many years
• depends on project ’lifetime’
• Placing values on things that have no value
• priceless and without a price / without a market
• Difficult questions
• especially in health area
• but, scarce resources
• Uncertainty and estimations
3
4. Project Evaluation Methodologies :
An Overview
• Hierarchy of evaluation techniques
• Ideally, a complete economic evaluation aims to clarify,
quantify and value all the relevant options, their inputs and
consequences
• Ambitious; the gold‐standard
• Cost‐Benefit Analysis (CBA)
• Others, not as comprehensive
• CMA; CEA; CUA; MCA
• Overview here…see these again in applications and Lecture
11 (week 12)
• All have one principle in common:
• they examine one (or more) possible interventions/options
and compare the inputs or resources necessary to carry out
such interventions with their consequences and effects
The methods in brief:
Cost‐minimisation Analysis (CMA)
• used when the consequence of the intervention are the
same
• therefore, focus only on the inputs
• what is the cheapest way to achieve the desired outcome?
4
Cost‐effectiveness Analysis (CEA)
• consequences of different interventions measured in an
identical way
• inputs are costed
• compare the competing interventions in terms of cost per
unit of consequence
• e.g. cost per unit increase in reading scores; cost per skilled
job created
• e.g. cost per hospital admission avoided; cost per illness
avoided
• Key measure is :
incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER)
= change in costs / change in effects
Cost‐utility Analysis (CUA)
• mainly in the healthcare / development area
• used to compare interventions which produce different
consequences in terms of quantity and quality of life
• measure the success of each using a common measure of
utility (satisfaction / subjective gains)
• compare the outcomes
• e.g. most common utility measures are QALYs
• quality‐adjusted‐life‐years
• therefore, compare cost per QALY
• http://www.euroqol.org/
• similar concept: DALY
Cost‐benefit Analysis (CBA)
• the most comprehensive / difficult
• when both the inputs and the consequences of different
interventions are compared in monetary terms
• choose the most desirable
• look at this in more detail shortly
5
Multi‐Criteria Analysis (MCA)
• It establishes preferences between options by reference to
an explicit set of objectives and measurable criteria to
assess the extent to which these have been met
• do this by:
• choosing a set of performance criteria
• assigning weights to these criteria
• then scoring options in terms of how well they perform
• the weighted scores are then summed
• options are ranked
• Sometimes called weighting & scoring
• It will reappear in Lecture 11 (week 12)
5. When/What to use
Evaluation requirements for projects:
• DPER / Public Spending Code guidelines
• projects between €5m and €20m – MCA
• projects >€20m – full CBA or CEA
• smaller projects (less than €5m) – a simple appraisal
• e.g. cashflow analysis; qualitative assessment of merit;
assessment of needs, options and costs
• innovative projects / new technologies / involving
significant future operational costs – full CBA or CEA
• post‐project reviews on all €20m+ and representative
sample of completed €5m+ projects
6. National Guidelines
Overall
• DPER The Public Spending Code (2011/2012+)
• DPER The Public Spending Code – technical references (2015)
• Department of Finance Guidelines for the Appraisal and
Management of Capital Expenditure Proposals in the Public Sector
(2005)
• CSF Working Rules for CBA (1999)
Sectoral
• Department of Transport Guidelines on a Common Appraisal
Framework for Transport Projects and Programmes (2009)
• National Roads Authority Project Appraisal Guidelines (2011) ++
• HIQUA Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Health
Technologies in Ireland (2014)
• Others to be references in future classes
6
7. CBA Explained (in brief)
Looking at the key project evaluation method
• Understanding this allows understanding of the others
• Brief overview
• Further notes on the website
• Definition
• Logic and Role
• The Approach
• Some Challenges
Definition:
Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) provides a systematic set of
procedures by which a firm or government can assess
whether to undertake a project or programme and, when
there is a choice among mutually exclusive projects or
programmes, which one to undertake
Logic and Role
• value the benefits to society: economic and social
• value the costs to society: economic and social
• adjust these for time
• combine the costs and benefits and conclude
• if project worthwhile
• which alternative to choose …
7
• Goes beyond qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis
• reduce and control the number of variables faced by a
decision maker and thereby enable more rational choices
…common monetary scale (€)
• ensure that societies resources are put to their most
highly valued uses
• achieve economic efficiency
• evaluate what the market omits: the perspective of
society
The Approach
• Many opinions on how to do a CBA
• Key references are:
• DPER (2011/12) D.03 and DPER (2015) Section E
• Department of Finance (2005)
• UK Treasury Green Book
• European Commission (2008)
• Boardman et al (2006)
• Overview of 8 major steps to follow when carrying out a
CBA
8
The Major Steps:
Step 1: Defining objectives and boundaries
Step 2: Identifying alternatives
Step 3: Identifying constraints
Step 4: Estimating costs and benefits
Step 5: Adjusting the values of costs and benefits
Step 6: Calculating the decision criteria
Step 7: Sensitivity analysis
Step 8: Make a Recommendation
• At the outset it is crucial to specify the objectives of a
project
• These should be as explicit, precise and amenable to
measurement as possible (SMART)
• Why?
• allows the possibility to identify alternatives
• facilitates assessment of the costs and benefits
• makes easier to identify for whom benefit is intended
• Examples / Multiple objectives: explicit and ordered
• Overall: a clear indication of what the project is about
and its scope
9
Step 2: Identifying alternatives
• Prepare a list of the range of actions which government
could possibly take to achieve the identified objectives
• Normally include some counterfactuals:
• “do‐nothing” option
• “do‐minimum” option**
• private sector option
• Big programme: wide range considered, then short‐list
chosen for detailed appraisal…how?
• Care in short‐listing: reasons recorded for each exclusion
• Those relevant must be borne in mind when appraising a
programme
10
Estimating costs and benefits
• Where mkt prices exist (accurately reflect…) then
analysis is straightforward
• But often
(i) Market prices are misleading
(ii) Market prices are not available
• When and what to do…
(i) Market prices are misleading
• distorted …poor indicators of social c&b’s
• classic reason: imperfect competition
• higher P and lower Qty than in perfect competition
• others: price supports, subsidies, taxation…
• Solution is:
• shadow prices
• e.g. labour and high unemp = lower shadow price
• but care and requirements on estimates
• willingness to pay estimates
(ii) Market prices are not available
• In some cases there are no market prices
• for: public goods, externalities, intangibles
• Values obtained indirectly – guidelines provide these
• willingness to pay; stated preference; revealed preference
• Some examples:
• the value of time
• the value of life
• the value of environmental externalities
11
The value of time
Time savings = major benefits of transport initiatives
“time is money”
Assumption that: the wage rate provides a measure of an
individual’s evaluation of their own time
Labour v leisure
a value is inferred or revealed given an individuals’ life
Basic ideal: if new motorway reduces commuting time by 20
mins and hourly wage rate for a person is €15, then value of
saving to that person = €5
Some considerations:
labour market conditions and the value of marginal gains in
time…shadow price of labour
small savings of time by many people may amount to a lot but
be valued very little
value different depending on when you save the time
working time v leisure time
and where you save the time
leisure v walking v waiting
Department of Transport – 2002 values (updating)
see dropbox for document
• Work time = €26.50 per hour
• Non‐work:
12
The value of life
‘Value of a statistical life’
Most controversial aspect of CBA
distasteful but highly relevant
healthcare projects, transport improvements, road
safety campaigns…
3 approaches
Foregone earnings
Wage premiums for risk
Contingent valuation
• Irish Values (2002 basis) from Department of Transport
document (2004 and 2010)
• Statistical value of a life saved
• plus accidents avoided
• plus injuries avoided
• There are other values used
• health literature and broad ranges
• World Bank…
13
The value of environmental externalities
(i) Pricing Emissions
new development in June 2009 (DOF circular)
Updated in 2015 – DPER (document E5)
require inclusion of C02e in CBA and other project appraisals
(7 green house gases)
values provided – ‘shadow price of public carbon’
scope: only direct C02 emissions from within state
jurisdiction and not already accounted for
• “the resources used to estimate C02e emissions should be
proportionate to the scale of the project” (2009)
• prices 2014‐2020 and beyond:
14
(ii) Pricing noise pollution
Dept of Finance June 2009:
“Departments/Agencies should consider sector specific
emissions, such as noise, air quality (NOx, SOx, particulate
matter), and vibrations in addition to C02e emissions and
where relevant, possible and significant include these
costs/benefits in the CBA”
DPER September 2015:
“CBAs should also monetise the value of emissions of other
specified non‐GHG emissions (NOX, SO2, PM and noise)
where such emissions are considered relevant, significant
and practicable for inclusion”
calculation of the impact of noise as a result of a project /
development
e.g. new transport infrastructure (airport), industrial
development, traffic plans…
measured as increase or decrease in noise levels in average
decibels (dB(A))
DoT recommend €28 DB(A) per person per year (2010: 24‐25)
15
(i) Present values
costs and benefits occur in different time periods
“time preference”: people prefer to receive goods
and services now rather than later
calculate the present value of costs and benefits
use the interest rate (i)
if the i rate is 5%, the present value of a benefit of
€105 next year is €100
You discount the future value by a value between 0‐
1, known as the discount rate or discount factor
Formula to calculate it…
Discount factor formula:
i = the interest rate
n = the number of years time the amount accrues
Discount factor = 1
(1 + i ) n
See UK Green Book table ‐ attached
(ii) The social discount rate
Just like people, society likes to receive goods and
services now rather than later
tend to use a different discount rate to that used by the
private sector
called the social discount rate
Why?
society takes a longer perspective, not as much rush for
returns
market rates contain a risk premium, state is less risky
DPER: 5% in real terms
A case for different (lower) rates for projects of 30yrs+ ‐
but these are few (hyperbolic discount rate)
16
(iii) Real prices
Future costs and benefits need to be adjusted for the
effect of inflation
compared at ‘constant prices’ or in ‘real terms’
deflate all future values by the expected inflation value
Annual figure from Dept of Finance
“2% per annum over the medium to longer term”
See circular from July 2009 ‐ dropbox
(iv) Shadow Price of Labour
We have a market price for labour
In certain circumstances a case can be made for using a
shadow price for labour costs
where there is high unemployment there are some resources
with zero or low opportunity costs
therefore full price is misleading…
DPRE (2015) suggest a shadow price of 80%‐100%
Same as (1999) DOF approach
Care using this:
need to justify
but even so, use the market price (100%) too
Not very common – sector applications only; costs only
(v) Shadow Price of Public Funds
public and private funds should not be treated the same
€1000 of additional private investment as a result of the
imposition of €999 of additional tax could be counted as a
net gain
but in raising this tax – distorts the economy
higher taxes might damage competitiveness… P…
solution is to weight public costs
vary depending on the tax system
DPRE (2015) suggest a shadow price of 130%
the above analysis: €1000 benefits v €1298.70 costs…a
net loss
more or less as per international approach…deadweight
loss of taxation
17
(vi) Distributional issues
How are the costs and benefits distributed?
if person A gains €200 and person B looses €100: overall
society gains but if person B was poor and is now
poorer?
possible to take into account distributional issues by
attaching weights to the benefits and costs
benefits to disadvantaged groups weighted more than
those to the better‐off
but, define these groups; which weights to use?
seldom used
alternative = compare inequality pre and post policy
• Overall:
Adjust the costs and benefits to present values by:
shadow price use (if appropriate)
adjusting for inflation
and discounting using the social discount rate
• 3 decision criteria
(i) net present value (NPV)
(ii) internal rate of return (IRR)
(iii) benefit‐cost ratio
18
(i) net present value (NPV)
Get net present costs and net present benefits
costs are subtracted from benefits and the net
benefits are expressed at their present value
if NPV is positive then project is accepted
if NPV is zero then project is indifferent
if NPV is negative then project is rejected
projects with positive NPVs enable efficient allocation
of resources and represent an improvement to the
welfare of society
competing projects: choose one with highest NPV
(ii) internal rate of return (IRR)
the discount rate that will make the NPV of a project
equal to zero
a project is worthwhile if the IRR is greater than the
discount rate used
an IRR of 15% means that at a discount rate of 15% the
project just breaks even; it could earn back all the
capital and operating costs and pay 15% for the use of
the money
problem: not good for comparing competing projects;
does not account for the size of the project
(iii) benefit‐cost ratio
ratio of discounted benefits to discounted costs
a project is accepted if BC ratio > 1
more benefits than costs
problem: misleading if used to rank projects as it
ignores the size of the project
19
• Of the three decision criteria, the NPV approach is
considered:
• the most reliable method
• and the best method to use
• primary variables that are uncertain:
• the discount rate
• wage rate growth
• forecast revenues
• forecast demand
• input prices
• input quantities
• project life span
• C02e values
• performing this: pinpoint areas of risk to project
• 1‐way; 2‐way; scenario analysis
• ‘best’ and ‘worst’ case
20
Step 8: Make a Recommendation
• Based on the analysis and the sensitivity testing…
Summary: The 8 Major Steps
Step 1: Defining objectives and boundaries
Step 2: Identifying alternatives
Step 3: Identifying constraints
Step 4: Estimating costs and benefits
Step 5: Adjusting the values of costs and benefits
Step 6: Calculating the decision criteria
Step 7: Sensitivity analysis
Step 8: Make a Recommendation
Some Challenges
• Appropriate short‐listing
• Establishing prices
• shadow prices
• relying on willingness‐to‐pay techniques…subjective
• Over optimism & intentional pessimism
• Avoiding double counting
21
• Unquantifiable costs and benefits
it may be the case that it is just not possible to
quantify some costs and benefits
too difficult; no data available; too much time
involved, no suitable shadow prices…
cannot ignore these…give misleading indications of
best project to pursue
solution (1): present results in a form which allows the
decision maker to take these into account
solution (2): provide a central estimate together with
a max and min plausible valuation
solution (3): adopt an alternative methodology that
works without valuing everything
22
• Key Readings
• Boardman et al – CBA Steps (Handout)
• UK Green Book (2003 updated 2011)
• DPER (2011/12 & 2015) Public Spending Code
23
Annex 6: Discount Rate
DISCOUNT FACTORS
Discount rates
Year 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
0 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
1 0.9901 0.9804 0.9709 0.9662 0.9615 0.9524 0.9434 0.9346 0.9259 0.9174 0.9091
2 0.9803 0.9612 0.9426 0.9335 0.9246 0.9070 0.8900 0.8734 0.8573 0.8417 0.8264
3 0.9706 0.9423 0.9151 0.9019 0.8890 0.8638 0.8396 0.8163 0.7938 0.7722 0.7513
4 0.9610 0.9238 0.8885 0.8714 0.8548 0.8227 0.7921 0.7629 0.7350 0.7084 0.6830
5 0.9515 0.9057 0.8626 0.8420 0.8219 0.7835 0.7473 0.7130 0.6806 0.6499 0.6209
6 0.9420 0.8880 0.8375 0.8135 0.7903 0.7462 0.7050 0.6663 0.6302 0.5963 0.5645
7 0.9327 0.8706 0.8131 0.7860 0.7599 0.7107 0.6651 0.6227 0.5835 0.5470 0.5132
8 0.9235 0.8535 0.7894 0.7594 0.7307 0.6768 0.6274 0.5820 0.5403 0.5019 0.4665
9 0.9143 0.8368 0.7664 0.7337 0.7026 0.6446 0.5919 0.5439 0.5002 0.4604 0.4241
10 0.9053 0.8203 0.7441 0.7089 0.6756 0.6139 0.5584 0.5083 0.4632 0.4224 0.3855
11 0.8963 0.8043 0.7224 0.6849 0.6496 0.5847 0.5268 0.4751 0.4289 0.3875 0.3505
12 0.8874 0.7885 0.7014 0.6618 0.6246 0.5568 0.4970 0.4440 0.3971 0.3555 0.3186
13 0.8787 0.7730 0.6810 0.6394 0.6006 0.5303 0.4688 0.4150 0.3677 0.3262 0.2897
14 0.8700 0.7579 0.6611 0.6178 0.5775 0.5051 0.4423 0.3878 0.3405 0.2992 0.2633
15 0.8613 0.7430 0.6419 0.5969 0.5553 0.4810 0.4173 0.3624 0.3152 0.2745 0.2394
16 0.8528 0.7284 0.6232 0.5767 0.5339 0.4581 0.3936 0.3387 0.2919 0.2519 0.2176
17 0.8444 0.7142 0.6050 0.5572 0.5134 0.4363 0.3714 0.3166 0.2703 0.2311 0.1978
18 0.8360 0.7002 0.5874 0.5384 0.4936 0.4155 0.3503 0.2959 0.2502 0.2120 0.1799
19 0.8277 0.6864 0.5703 0.5202 0.4746 0.3957 0.3305 0.2765 0.2317 0.1945 0.1635
20 0.8195 0.6730 0.5537 0.5026 0.4564 0.3769 0.3118 0.2584 0.2145 0.1784 0.1486
21 0.8114 0.6598 0.5375 0.4856 0.4388 0.3589 0.2942 0.2415 0.1987 0.1637 0.1351
22 0.8034 0.6468 0.5219 0.4692 0.4220 0.3418 0.2775 0.2257 0.1839 0.1502 0.1228
23 0.7954 0.6342 0.5067 0.4533 0.4057 0.3256 0.2618 0.2109 0.1703 0.1378 0.1117
24 0.7876 0.6217 0.4919 0.4380 0.3901 0.3101 0.2470 0.1971 0.1577 0.1264 0.1015
25 0.7798 0.6095 0.4776 0.4231 0.3751 0.2953 0.2330 0.1842 0.1460 0.1160 0.0923
26 0.7720 0.5976 0.4637 0.4088 0.3607 0.2812 0.2198 0.1722 0.1352 0.1064 0.0839
27 0.7644 0.5859 0.4502 0.3950 0.3468 0.2678 0.2074 0.1609 0.1252 0.0976 0.0763
28 0.7568 0.5744 0.4371 0.3817 0.3335 0.2551 0.1956 0.1504 0.1159 0.0895 0.0693
29 0.7493 0.5631 0.4243 0.3687 0.3207 0.2429 0.1846 0.1406 0.1073 0.0822 0.0630
30 0.7419 0.5521 0.4120 0.3563 0.3083 0.2314 0.1741 0.1314 0.0994 0.0754 0.0573
0 1.0000 23 0.4533
1 0.9662 24 0.4380
2 0.9335 25 0.4231
3 0.9019 26 0.4088
4 0.8714 27 0.3950
5 0.8420 28 0.3817
6 0.8135 29 0.3687
7 0.7860 30 0.3563
8 0.7594 40 0.2651
9 0.7337 50 0.1973
10 0.7089 60 0.1468
11 0.6849 75 0.0942
12 0.6618 80 0.0833
13 0.6394 90 0.0651
14 0.6178 100 0.0508
15 0.5969 125 0.0274
16 0.5767 150 0.0167
17 0.5572 200 0.0062
18 0.5384 250 0.0029
19 0.5202 300 0.0014
20 0.5026 350 0.0009
21 0.4856 400 0.0005
22 0.4692 500 0.0002