Strategic Importance of Futures Studies

Finland As A Case Country

&
Egypt - Finland Partnership Prospectives

Prof. Sirkka Heinonen

Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC), University of Turku

Academy of Scientific Research and

Technology ASRT, Cairo, Egypt
7th May 2018
 My Background
Lecturer’s Background

Professor of Futures Studies since 2007

at Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC),
University of Turku
PhD Helsinki University
Previously Chief Research Scientist at VTT
technology foresight, future of cities,
sustainable knowledge society,
energy, social media, innovation

• Vice-President of the Finnish Society for Futures Studies (FSFS)

• Chair of Helsinki Node of the Millennium Project 2001 –
• Member of the Club of Rome 2005 -
2
 Structure of Presentation
1. Finland as a Futures Country:
National Foresight System
2. The International Master s' Programme in Futures
Studies, University of Turku - how and what?
3. Developing foresight methodologies
– how and why?
4. Conducting research on mutual challenges
- how and why?
5. Promoting futures learning - how and why?
1. Finland as a Futures Country:
National Foresight System
 FINLAND AS A
FUTURES-ORIENTED COUNTRY

• Most stable country in the world

(Failed State Index 2017)

• Second least corrupted country

(Corruption Perc. Index 2015)

• Best freedom of press

(World Press Freedom Index 2016)
 FINLAND AS FUTURES SOCIETY

• Best education system 2012 (5th. in 2015)

• Best country in the world for being a mother (2016)
• Second best country for being a girl (2016)
• First country to give women full political rights (1906)
• Happiest people (2018 UN)
 EDUCATION – TECHNOLOGY – NATURE
people -> brain innovations -> muscle quality -> heart

©Helsinki City Planning Office

NATIONAL FORESIGHT SYSTEM
NATIONAL FORESIGHT PROCESS IN FINLAND

Foresight coordination (PMO, Sitra)

FORESIGHT
WORK Government
National Foresight e.g. Government of Finland
Prime Minister’s Report on the
Future
Office (PMO) & Ministries’
National Ministries sectoral Future
Reviews and
Foresight their horizontal
Network Regional Foresight
analysis
19 regions Parliament of
Finland
Municipal Foresight
The
317 municipalities
Committee for
Research organisations,
the Future
private & third sector actors, citizen
participation
 Government Report on the Future

• Once during each electoral period, a report is

issued on long-term future prospects and the
Government’s targets

• Prepared in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO),

and submitted to the Parliament

• The Parliamentary Committee for the Future

prepares Parliament’s response

• Current Government Report is on the Future

of Work
COMMITTEE FOR THE FUTURE

PARLIAMENT OF FINLAND
 2. The International Masters'
Programme in Futures Studies,
University of Turku -
how and what?
 PIONEERS

• Academy of Finland (1970s) Prof. Pentti Malaska

• Finnish Society for Futures Studies 1980

• Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC 1992

(Academic university dept. -> since 2013
Master’sProgramme in FS as major)
 FUTURES RESEARCH

Futures Research
Strategic
Foresight

Futures research = systematic, holistic,

multidisciplinary and critical long-term analysis of
futures topics and alternative developments

Foresight = structured participatory debate about

the future of complex issues
 THREE MAIN PRINCIPLES OF
FUTURES RESEARCH

1. Future cannot be predicted

2. Future is not pre-determined

3. Future can be affected

Roy Amara (1981)
Possible
Probable FUTURES
Preferred
Master’s Programme in Futures Studies
Master’s Programme in Futures Studies
at University of Turku (FUTU)

• The students will build up their knowledge

and skills in Futures Studies in a visionary
and futures-oriented way.

• Students will learn to conceptualize reality

and events in a multi-disciplinary and
systemic way and to analyze local
phenomena, social development, and
decision-making processes in the light of
global change.
Master’s Programme in Futures Studies
at University of Turku (FUTU)
• The students enrolled in the Master’s
Programme will take a Master of Arts degree
(120 ECTS credits).
• The two-year programme is instructed in
English.
• Citizens of a country outside the European
Union (EU) and the European Economic Area
(EEA) or Switzerland will be charged a tuition
fee of 10 000€ per academic year.
• The university offers some scholarships for
students liable to pay tuition fees.
“Studying Futures Studies
opened up new horizons
in front of me.
I learned how to approach the future
not as a single reality but as an
opportunity
for multiple alternative endings.“
Akhgar Kaboli, Iran
 Master’s Programme in Futures Studies
at University of Turku (FUTU)

• After studying in the FUTU programme the

students will be qualified as an expert in the
“business of the future”

More information about the programme and

courses: futu@utu.fi

http://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/studying/FutureMasters/Pages/home.aspx

Application time December 2018

 3. Developing foresight
methodologies – how and why?
How Do We Explore Our Futures?
Acta Futura Fennica 10
The Finnish Society for Futures Studies
for inquiries/orders: toimisto@futurasociety.fi
 How Do We Explore Our Futures?
 The first edition of this book in Finnish in 1993 when the
academic position of futures studies was still very
unclear in Finland, but there was already a strong
community of futurists

 Various methods and interpretations of futures research

have been the strength of the Finnish community of
futurists from the very beginning

 Since the early 1990s, the academic position and the

scientific acceptance of the methods of futures research
radically improved in Finland
Academic FS in Finland
 According to an evaluation:
 Between 1999 and 2000: 22 doctoral theses
 Between 2001 and 2010: 30 doctoral theses
 These doctors identified themselves as
futurists alongside their other professional identities

 Improved scientific status: in 2015, the

University of Turku got its first doctors in
the special field of futures studies, after
Finland Futures Research Centre had
become a department of Futures Studies

 -> Doctors in Futures studies

 How Do We Explore Our Futures?
 21 leading Finnish futurists reveal their practical
and theoretical knowledge of futures studies

 A wide sample of modern futures studies’

methodology:

- Evolutionary and systems thinking

- Expert-based knowledge evaluation

- Time-series based methods like Delphi and

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

- Communicative futures methods such as

futures workshops and scenario work

- Newer methods such as the anticipation of

Weak Signals and Black Swans
 How Do We Explore Our Futures?

 A comprehensive reading for all those interested in

futures studies theory and its practical applications:
researchers, consultants, urban planners, students etc

 Also suitable as lecture material for universities

 Familiarizes the reader with the idea of futures studies
and the basic methods of futures as a scientific
discipline

 Published in English as an answer to increasing

international demand for Finnish original contributions
to the fields of Futures Studies and Foresight
The Book’s Two Main Themes

1) The philosophical basis or the paradigm of

futures studies and its connections to other
fields of science
2) The various methods of futures research
 Every method discussed by an author, who
has used the method in her/his own practical
project(s)
 Content of the book
1. The Fundamentals
of Futures Knowledge
 Futures Consciousness and the
Knowledge of the Future—Focus
on the Future (Pentti Malaska)
 Futures Studies: a Science or Art?
(Ilkka Niiniluoto)

 Studying the Future and Writing

History (Matti Männikkö)
 The Disciplinary Identity of Futures
Studies and Its Relation to Other
Disciplines (Olavi Borg)
 Content of the book
2. Evolutionary and
Systems Thinking
 System Models in Research and Planning—
Building a New Dialectic Framework (Jyrki
Luukkainen)

 Chaos Theory and the Manageability of

Complex Systems (Jarl-Thure Eriksson)

 The Evolution Theory as a Futures

Research Method (Mika Pantzar)
 Futures Research and Economic Models—
Different Approaches of Economics and
Futures Research in Modelling (Osmo Kuusi)
 Content of the book

3. Scenario Thinking
 Theory of Futuribles and Historibles (Pentti
Malaska and Ilkka Virtanen)

 The Futures Table (Morphological Matric)

Method—Case Report: Care for the Elderly.
(Yrjö Seppälä)

 Scenarising as Dialogue (Vuokko Jarva)

 Scenario Building in Strategic
Management—Why Scenarios? (Tarja Meristö)
 From the Functional Paradigm of Futures
Studies to E-forecasting Systems (Timo Sneck)
 Content of the book
4. Futures Workshops
as Methodology
 The Future Workshop and New Methods for
Shaping the Future in the “Workshop Spirit”
(Juha Nurmela)

 We Make the Future—The Communication

Camp (Marja-Liisa Viherä)
 Content of the book
5. Expert-knowledge
Based Evaluation Methods
 The Delphi method (Osmo Kuusi)
 Pioneer analysis and national cultural
changes. Posi- and negatrend analysis in the
identification of cultural change (Sirkka Heinonen)
 Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) (Anita Rubin)
 6.New Opportunities- Content of the book

oriented Methods
 Future Signals as a Sense-Making Tool
(Tuomo Kuosa)
 Weak Signals (Elina Hiltunen)
 Anticipation and interpretation of black swans
as a learning process— The lessons of a
volcanic ash cloud (Sirkka Heinonen and Juho Ruotsalainen)
 Role-playing game scenarios (Petri Kylliäinen)

The future of futures studies very much depends on

its methods and their uses
4. Conducting research on
mutual challenges
- how and why?
 EGYPT FINLAND
Similarities and
dissimilarities
exist between our
countries

100 years of Independence

EGYPT FINLAND

Land area 1,001,449 km2 Land area 338 424 km2

Population 88,487,396 Population 5 507 543
Population density 84/km2 Population density 16/km2
GDP per capita $12,600 GDP per capita $43,545
Partial ind. 1922, Indep. 1952 Autonomy 1809, Indp. 1917
 RAPID CHANGE EMPHASIZES
STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF FORESIGHT

• Change is not only rapid but also

continuous, increasingly difficult to foresee
in our complex world
• We are living the age of globalization,
urbanization, digitalization and resource
scarcity
• These megatrends are making a significant
impact on nations and on people’s lives
© Sirkka Heinonen
Natural resources, renewable
energy and circular economy
as an opportunity for
emerging countries

What is the preferred future?

• Political will needed for a shared vision!
• What opportunities for Egypt?
2 Global Futures Think-tanks

Club of Rome 1968 (CoR) - Limits to

Growth 1972

Millennium Project (MP) 1996

http://www.millennium-project.org/

Helsinki Node (2000) &

Egyptian Node Dr Kamal Shaeer
MILLENNIUM PROJECT
Jerome Glenn

Pages: 208; includes some 50 graphs

ISBN: 978-0-9882639-5-6
5. Promoting futures learning
- how and why?
• International Master’s programme in
Futures Studies

• Doctoral Programme in Futures Studies

• Finnish Futures Research Academy

(FFA) 1998

-> courses for 10 universities in

Finland, courses possible to foreign
universities as well
 15 Global Challenges
“The 15 Global
Challenges provide
a framework to
assess the global
and local prospects
for humanity.

The Challenges are

interdependent: an
improvement in one
makes it easier to
address others;
deterioration in one
makes it harder to
address others.

Arguing whether
one is more
important than
another is like
arguing that the
human nervous
system is more
important than the
respiratory
Egypt-Finland Partnership Prospectives
• It is possible to bring the courses to the Client´s
location in a customized hybrid format, combining
convenient class times with online work “in-between”
• A special course could be provided based on
the Futures methods book (How to Explore Our
Futures?)
• In addition, co-operation on futures education can be
provided with Finland Futures Research Centre
(Heinonen) and with the Millennium Project (Jerome
Glenn & Egyptian Node Chair Kamal Shaeer)
• Partnership on projects is also an option.
Possible topics: renewable energy, liveable cities,
global challenges etc
 Energizing Futures
International FFRC Conference

How to create sustainable energy policies in Europe,

and elsewhere in the World?
What is the role of futures studies in identifying opportunities for a fair,
efficient and resilient energy system?

We are looking forward to meeting you in

Tampere, Finland on 13–14 June 2018!
https://futuresconference2018.wordpress.com/programme/
 TO CONCLUDE
A nation without a vision
is a nation without future
Futures Capacity requires a shared
vision and tools to implement it for all!

I Prime Minister's Office I vnk.fi

Thank You!
Professor Sirkka Heinonen
Finland Futures Research Centre
(FFRC), University of Turku

sirkka.heinonen (at) utu.fi

 REFERENCES
Bell, Wendell (1997). Foundations of futures Studies. Vol I History, Purpose, and
Knowledge. Vol II Values, Objectivity, and the Good Society.

Glenn, Jeromy (2012). Futures for Work, Economy, Growth and Ubiquitous
Technology. Interview of Jerome Glenn by Sirkka Heinonen, Turku 6th June 2012.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttLE9QoE7g8

Glenn, Jerome C. and Florescu, Elizabeth, and The Millennium

Project Team. 2017. “State of the Future 19.0.”
The Millennium Project, Washington DC. http://www.millennium-
project.org/millennium/publications.html

Heinonen, Sirkka (2013). Neo-Growth in Future Post-Carbon Cities. Journal of

Futures Studies. September 2013, 18(1): 13-40.
http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/?page_id=420

Heinonen, Sirkka (2008). Multidimensional Concept of Risks in Horizon Scanning

and Futures Thinking. In Tan Hong Ngoh, Edna & Hoo Tiang Boon (eds.) “Thinking
About the Future. Strategic Anticipation and RAHS”. Volume published in
conjunction with the second International Risks Assessment and Horizon
Scanning Symposium RAHSS. National Security Coordination Secretariat & S.
Rajaratnam School of International Studies/Nanyang Technological University.
Singapore, 53-67.
Heinonen, Sirkka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2014). Toward Ubiquitous Learning 2050.
2050 visions of the futures of education, work and technology. 48 p. AEL,
Helsinki.
http://www.ael.fi/files/AEL_Futuriikki_ENG_10-2014_FINAL_net.pdf/

Heinonen, Sirkka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2013). Futures Clinique - method for
promoting futures learning and provoking radical futures. European Journal of
Futures Research (2013) 15:7, DOI 10.1007/s40309-013-0007-4, 11 pp.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs40309-013-0007-4

Heinonen, Sirkka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2013). Energy Futures 2030. Toward the
Neo-Growth Paradigm of the Sixth-Wave Era. FFRC eBOOK 1/2013, 69 p.
http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eBook_2013-1.pdf

Heinonen, Sirkka & Hiltunen, Elina (2012). Creative Foresight Space and the
Futures Window: Using Visual Weak Signals to Enhance Anticipation and
Innovation. Futures vol 44, 248-256.

Heinonen, Sirkka & Kurki, Sofi (2011). Transmedial Futuring in Creative Foresight
Space. In: Wagner, Cynthia G. (ed.) Moving from Vision to Action. Essays
published in conjunction with the World Future Society's annual meeting. World
Future Society, Bethesda Maryland, pp. 119-128.
• Heinonen, S. (2014). What is Futures Research and Scenario Thinking? Lecture
at University of Buenos Aires (UBA), Departamento de Computación 18th
November 2014. During the Secondment at FLACSO and CIECTI, Buenos Aires
(November 2014). 50 ppt slides.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY4NGAfdhJU
• Heinonen, Sirkka (2017) Pioneer analysis and international cultural changes.
Application of positrend and negatrend analysis in the identification of cultural
change. In: Heinonen, S. – Kuusi, O. & Salminen, H. (eds) How do we explore
futures? ACTA FUTURA FENNICA nro 10, Helsinki, p. 241–251.
• Heinonen, Sirkka, Ruotsalainen, Juho & Karjalainen, Joni (2017)
Transformational Energy Futures 2050. Neo-Carbon Energy Societal
Scenarios. FFRC eBOOK 10/2017. Finland Futures Research Centre,
University of Turku. 69 p. ISBN 978-952-249-495-5, ISSN 1797-1322.
http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eBook_10-
2017.pdf
• Heinonen, Sirkka – Honkapuro, Samuli – Karjalainen, Joni – Koljonen, Tiina –
Ruotsalainen, Juho & Similä, Lassi (2017) Final Neo-Carbon Energy Countdown –
Ready for Renewables. Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC eBook 11/2017.
http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eBook_11-2017.pdf
• Heinonen, Sirkka – Karjalainen, Joni – Parkkinen, Marjukka –
Ruotsalainen, Juho & Zavialova, Sofia (2017b) Surprising
Energy Futures. Neo-Carbon Energy Futures Clinique V.
FFRC eBOOK 4/2017, Finland Futures Research Centre,
University of Turku. 150 p.
http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-
tutu/Documents/eBook_4-2017.pdf
• Heinonen, S. – Karjalainen, J. – Ruotsalainen, J. &
Steinmüller, K. (2017c) Surprise as the New Normal –
Implications for Energy Security. European Journal of Futures
Research (2017) 5: 12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-017-
0117-5
• Heinonen, Sirkka – Minkkinen, Matti – Karjalainen, Joni &
Inayatullah, Sohail (2017d) Testing transformative energy
scenarios through causal layered analysis gaming,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change 124: 101-113,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.10.011
• Heinonen, Sirkka – Vähäkari, Noora & Karjalainen, Joni (2017e) Neo-Carbon
Energy World – What Opportunities for Chile? Neo-Carbon Energy Futures
Clinique IV. FFRC eBOOK 3/2017, Finland Futures Research Centre, University
of Turku. 63 p. http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eBook_3-
2017.pdf
• Heinonen, Sirkka – Balcom Raleigh, Nicolas – Karjalainen, Joni – Minkkinen, Matti
– Parkkinen, Marjukka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2015) CLA GAME REPORT: Causal
Layered Analysis Game on Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios. FFRC eBOOK
12/2015. Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku. 112 p.
http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eBook_12-2015.pdf
• Karjalainen, Joni & Heinonen, Sirkka (2017) Using deliberative foresight to
envision a neo-carbon energy innovation ecosystem – a case study of Kenya.
African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, p. 1–17,
DOI: 10.1080/20421338.2017.1366133. ISSN 2042-1338
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/20421338.2017.1366133
• Lang, Merja – Karjalainen, Joni & Heinonen, Sirkka (2016) Glocal Insights to Neo-
Carbon Energy and Its Forerunners. Neo-Carbon Energy WP1 Working Paper
4/2016. Finland Futures Research Centre, 112 p.
www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-4-
2016.pdf
• Masini, Eleonora (1993) Why Future Studies? London, Grey Seal Books.
• Ruotsalainen, Juho – Karjalainen, Joni – Child, Michael & Heinonen,
Sirkka (2017) Culture, values, lifestyles, and power in energy futures: A
critical peer-to-peer vision for renewable energy. Energy Research &
Social Science 34 (2017), 231–239.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.08.001

• Ruotsalainen, Juho – Heinonen, Sirkka – Karjalainen, Joni & Parkkinen,

Marjukka (2016) Peer-to-peer work in the digital meaning society 2050.
European Journal of Futures Research 4(10).
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs40309-016-0092-2

• Taleb, Nassim (2007). The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly
Improbable.

• Tapio, Petri & Heinonen, Sirkka (2018). Focused Futures from Finland.
World Future Review
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1946756718754847
 Think Global – Act Local
see especially this report

Lang, Merja – Karjalainen, Joni & Heinonen,

Sirkka (2016) Glocal Insights to Neo-Carbon
Energy and Its Forerunners. Neo-Carbon
Energy WP1 Working Paper 4/2016. Finland
Futures Research Centre, 112 p.
www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Do
cuments/NeoCarbon-WP1-4-2016.pdf
How To Explore Our Futures?
Information about the book:
• Editorial Board: Prof. Sirkka Heinonen, Adj. Prof. Osmo Kuusi &
MSc Hazel Salminen
• Publisher: The Finnish Society for Futures Studies
(www.futuressociety.fi) Series: Acta Futura Fennica 10

• Price:
Printed book: EUR 45 + postage (discounted price EUR 40 for
members of the FSFS)
E-book: EUR 25 (member price EUR 20)
• For orders, visit our online shop:
https://holvi.com/shop/Tutuseura/section/julkaisut-publications OR
contact Hazel Salminen at the Finnish Society for Futures Studies,
Finland: toimisto@futurasociety.fi

No cheques accepted, only international bank transfers or purchase through the online shop.
 Scenarios as Stairways to
Resilient Futures
FFRC Blog Text by Prof. Sirkka Heinonen
https://ffrc.wordpress.com/tag/scenario-thinking/