44
Paper No. 03- 3190
Development of Adaptive Performance
Models for Oklahoma Airfield Pavement
Management System
Jie Yuan and Michael A. Mooney
The Oklahoma airfield pavement management system (APMS) is a set
of pavement management tools that can assist with pavement condition
evaluation, as well as prioritization and scheduling of pavement main-
tenance and rehabilitation activities. Pavement performance models
were developed to support the APMS for more than 70 Oklahoma gen-
eral aviation airports. The family modeling method based on the pave-
ment condition index was tailored to fit the deterioration characteristics
of these airfield pavements. The statistical and engineering significance
of seven levels of pavement factors was investigated, and pavement fac-
tors that affect pavement deterioration significantly were identified as
family variables. Asphalt concrete pavement families were formed by
sorting pavement function, distress cause, and pavement thickness,
while portland cement concrete pavements were divided into families
according to pavement function and climate zone. The family poly-
nomial curves were able to reveal the expected deterioration patterns
and are logical in engineering principle. Rooted by an adaptive data-
base, the system accepts expert opinion and automatically integrates
effects of major maintenance and rehabilitation activities into modeling.
From the up-to-date database, the performance models update forecasts
automatically.
The air transportation system of the state of Oklahoma consists of
144 airports, most of which are general aviation (GA) airports
under jurisdiction of the Oklahoma Aeronautics Commission
(OAC). To effectively maintain and rehabilitate these valuable
pavement assets, OAC initiated an airfield pavement management
system (OAC APMS) in January 2000 for major GA airports. The
current OAC APMS covers 74 GA airports, including municipal,
regional, and reliever airports. The OAC APMS is a web-based
pavement management system (PMS) that provides airport man-
agers, engineers, OAC staff, and consultants with convenient ac-
cess to an effective information-sharing platform. Supported by
an adaptive database that accepts and stores not only pavement
inventory and distress data but also geotechnical data (1), the
OAC APMS is composed of four subsystems: user-friendly data-
entry interfaces, project-level reporting and analysis, network con-
dition forecasting, and a maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R)
work planner. The performance models forecast pavement condi-
tions and support the work planner in determining optimal M&R
strategies.
A PMS includes a set of tools or methods that can help decision
makers find cost-effective strategies for providing, evaluating, and
J. Yuan, Fugro South, Inc., 6100 Hillcroft Avenue, Houston, TX 77081-1009.
M. A. Mooney, Division of Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, Golden,
CO 80401.
■ Transportation Research Record 1853
maintaining pavements in a serviceable condition (2). Described as
“a mathematical description of the expected values that a pavement
attribute will take during a specific analysis period” (3), a pave-
ment performance model used at both network and project levels
to forecast and analyze pavement conditions is an essential part of
a PMS. Because of the complexity of pavement performance,
deterministic and probabilistic performance models are widely
used (4–7 ). The deterministic modeling approach assumes that the
behavior of pavement is predetermined through a known pattern
that can be specified by a given equation or curve relating perfor-
mance to one or more variables (8). Probabilistic models do not
explain and rely on the deterioration patterns but instead simulate
the outcome by using probability distribution normally from expert
opinions (7 ). Selecting the appropriate condition prediction model
depends on the pavement system level, the complexity of the
PMSs, the types of network-level and project-level analysis con-
ducted, and the amount of historical data and local experience
available. Given that deterministic models can better integrate his-
torical data and distress inspection details into modeling and do not
require extensive local expert opinion, the OAC APMS perfor-
mance models use the pavement condition index (PCI) to rate and
predict pavement condition and present forecasts in the form of
multi-order polynomials that are subject to slope and optional single
or multiple constraints.
The reliability of deterministic performance models depends on
the integral and up-to-date historical pavement data. M&R activities
and the extension or addition of pavement branches will substan-
tially affect both network and project condition forecasts. An effec-
tive performance model should be adaptive to new inspection data
and M&R effects and should automatically integrate them into the
modeling process. This paper presents the web-based OAC APMS
performance models to support the implementation of the OAC
APMS. The approaches used to develop the performance models are
explained. The analyses of pavement factors that best characterize
Oklahoma general aviation pavement deterioration are presented,
and the web-based deterioration modeling techniques and features,
including the adaptive abilities pertaining to deterioration modeling,
are described.
NETWORK DEFINITION AND
PAVEMENT ASSESSMENT
The data essential for defining the pavement network included net-
work inventory information, pavement construction and maintenance
histories, pavement structure details, geotechnical information, and
environmental and traffic inputs. Information was collected through
Yuan and Mooney
an exhaustive review of historical records, extensive site investi-
gations, laboratory testing, and data analysis. Substantial efforts
were extended to review available records, including project history
records, airport master records, previous pavement survey reports,
construction drawings, and quality control testing reports. The site
investigation work included pavement coring; base, subbase, and
subgrade sampling; dynamic cone penetration (DCP) testing; and
nondestructive testing through spectral analysis of surface wave (9)
and impulse response.
Visual inspection of pavement distress was conducted in general
accordance with the procedures outlined in FAA Advisory Circular
150/5386-6 and ASTM D5340. Before field inspections were made,
pavements were divided into sections that are contiguous portions of
the pavement having uniform pavement structure, maintenance his-
tory, traffic patterns, and distress conditions throughout their entire
length or areas. Pavement sections were further divided into inspec-
tion sample units. A typical sample unit of portland cement concrete
(PCC) pavement normally covers 20 contiguous slabs, while an aver-
age asphalt concrete (AC) pavement sample unit occupies an area
of 5,000 ft2 (450 m2). Visual inspection sampling rates ranged from
approximately 20% for runway sections to approximately 10% for
taxiway or apron sections.
The OAC APMS covers 74 GA airports, 17 with PCC runways
and 57 with AC runways. Figure 1 shows the locations of these GA
airports. These airports comprise 495 sections, of which 340 are AC
and 155 are PCC. As indicated in Figure 1, both AC and PCC pave-
ments exhibit a wide range of pavement ages. Most AC pavements
are <30 years old; because many PCC pavements were built during
the World War II era, PCC pavements have an older average age.
Among 340 AC sections, 90 sections had been overlaid with AC,
and 60 sections had been reconstructed or resurfaced. No PCC sec-
tions had been overlaid with PCC, and 16 PCC sections were resting
on AC pavements.
(a)
FIGURE 1 GA airports in OAC APMS: (a) age of PCC and AC pavements, and (b) map showing location of airports and
distribution of AC and PCC pavements.
Paper No. 03- 3190 45
Figure 2 shows the PCI of all inspected sections versus age. The
figure clearly shows that PCC and AC pavements have different
deterioration patterns, and with the higher coefficient of determina-
tion (R2) and the lower standardized error of estimates (SEE; also
referred to as standard deviation), the PCC polynomial is a better fit.
Preventive maintenance (e.g., crack sealing and joint rehabilitation)
is built into the inspection points. The rate of deterioration of AC
pavements slows beyond the age of 20.
PAVEMENT DETERIORATION MODELING
Preliminary analysis of observed distresses revealed that only 15
of a total 545 inspections exhibited traffic-dominated damages
[the percentage of traffic-related deduct values (DVs) exceeded
70%], while 302 inspections reflected only environment-induced
distresses. A model projecting deterioration as a function of age
and addressing the effects of pavement factors by family grouping
was adopted to simulate the deterioration trends with reasonable
accuracy and reliability.
The constrained multidegree polynomial model adopted for the
OAC APMS deterioration models is given as
h
minimize ∑ [ yi − PCI( xi )]2 (1)
i =1
subject to
the initial condition constraint, PCI(0) = 100,
∂PCI( x j )
the slope constraints, ≤ 0 for any x j
∂x j
between 0 and the terminal age,
(b)
46 Paper No. 03- 3190 Transportation Research Record 1853

100
AC family curve
PCC family curve
80
Inspection on AC
Inspection on PCC
60
AC pavements
PCI

R2 = 0.62
40 SEE = 11.8
PCC pavements
20 R2 = 0.68
SEE = 9.8

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Age (year)

FIGURE 2 Visual inspection data sets and preliminary performance models.

the optional end constraint, PCI( xterm. ) ≤ PCI term. , and
the optional expert-opinion-based constraint, PCI( xk ) ≤ PCI k
where
PCI(x) = a0 + a1x + a2x2 + . . . + an xn,
h = inspection number,
yi = PCI of a section at age xi,
n = polynomial order,
xi = pavement age,
vector A = [a1, a, . . . , an]T contains polynomial parame-
ters,
xterm. and PCIterm. = user-defined terminal life span and terminal
serviceability, respectively, and
PCI(xk) ≤ PCIk = user-defined additional constraints for inte-
grating expert opinion (k = 1, 2, . . . , m).
R2 and SEE are computed for each family model to assess good-
ness of fit and modeling accuracy. Outlier detecting techniques
are employed to identify and treat statistically extreme observa-
tions. A default confidence interval of 95% is used for outlier
detecting, but users can define other confidence intervals. An
investigation of the effect of polynomial order revealed that once
the polynomial order exceeds five, the improvement in goodness
of fit became minimal. Therefore, the fifth polynomial equations
are used to fit data sets.
IDENTIFYING FAMILY VARIABLES
The inclusion in modeling of all variables that significantly affect
pavement performance is vital to reliable performance modeling.
To effectively use the limited historical data, the project team
investigated seven pavement factors, qualitatively evaluated the
significance of each pavement factor, and identified those that most
significantly influence pavement behavior.
Pavement Factors
As defined in Table 1, seven levels of pavement factors were used
to describe pavement families: surface type, pavement function,
construction and maintenance history, nature of distress cause, cli-
mate zone, base drainage condition, and pavement thickness. The
nature of distress cause was determined by computing the percent-
ages of DVs attributed to load, environment, and combined causes.
The distress causes, load, environment, or other, were identified for
all distresses according to distress cause definitions proposed by
Shahin (10). If the percentage of DV due to load-induced distress
exceeds 70% of total DV, the dominated distress cause is classified
as load. Similarly, if the percentage of environment-related DV
exceeds 70%, the dominated distress cause is defined as environ-
ment. The dividing line for the two climate zones used, the dry-no-
freezing zone in the west and the wet-no-freezing zone in the east,
was determined from the FHWA climate region map (11). Pave-
ments supported by gravel or aggregate bases are classified as “with
drainage base.” The presence of gravel or aggregate base was deter-
mined through inspecting construction drawings and boring logs.
Acquiring and updating all pavement factors described in Table 1 is
automatically accomplished by the system.
Family Variables
Identifying the appropriate family variables was accomplished
through a process of using R2 and SEE to rank the significance of
pavement factors and by using figures containing various family
curves to verify whether the combinations of pavement factors are
significant in an engineering context. Pavements were grouped
into two families: the AC family and the PCC family. Family
curves were developed by using constrained least-squares regres-
sion of the fifth-order polynomial defined in Equation 1. Table 2
summarizes the statistical data for the first-level factor combina-
tions, that is, 1-2 through 1-7, and provides the significance rank
of each combination. According to the analysis, pavement func-
tion is the most important factor within the AC and PCC families.
However, no factor combination dramatically improved the R2
and SEE values. Figure 3 shows the fifth-order polynomials for
pavement function within AC and PCC pavements. Within AC,
the only significant deviation in pavement performance occurs
after the age of 26 where there is little taxiway data. The subtle
difference in AC performance during age 0–10 is well within the
SEE of each curve. The performances of PCC runways, taxiways,
Yuan and Mooney Paper No. 03- 3190 47

TABLE 1 Pavement Factors

Factor Pavement
Descriptor Description
Number Factor
AC Asphalt concrete pavement
1 Surface Type
PCC Portland cement concrete pavement
Runway Runway sections
2 Pavement Function Taxiway Taxiway sections
Apron Apron sections
AC New constructed/resurfaced AC
ACPC AC overlay on PCC pavement
Construction and
3 ACAC AC overlay on AC pavement
Maintenance History
PCC New constructed/resurfaced PCC
PCAC PCC overlay on AC pavement
Environment % of deduct values of climate-induced distresses >70%
Nature of Distress
4 Load % of deduct values of load-induced distresses >70%
Cause
Combined Neither environment nor load dominated
DNF Dry-nonfreezing zone
5 Climate Zone
WNF Wet-nonfreezing zone
Base Drainage Drained With gravel/aggregate base
6
Condition Undrained Without gravel/aggregate base
AC - thin AC pavement, ≤2.5 in. (64 mm)
AC - medium AC pavement, >2.5 in. (64 mm) and <6 in. (152 mm)
AC - thick AC pavement, ≥6 in. (152 mm)
7 Pavement Thickness
PCC - thin PCC pavement, ≤6 in. (152 mm)
PCC - medium PCC pavement, >6 in. (152 mm) and <12 in. (305 mm)
PCC - thick PCC pavement, ≥12 in. (305 mm)

TABLE 2 Statistical Significance of Pavement Factors

48 Paper No. 03- 3190 Transportation Research Record 1853

AC family curve (R-square = 0.62 SEE = 11.8)

AC/RW family curve (R-square = 0.61 SEE = 11.6)
AC/TW family curve (R-square = 0.71 SEE = 12.0)
AC/RW Inspection
AC/TW Inspection
100

80

60
PCI

40

20

0
0 10 20 30 40
Year
(a)

PCCfamily curve (R-square = 0.68 SEE = 9.8)

PCC/RW family curve (R-square = 0.80 SEE = 8.0)
PCC/TW family curve (R-square = 0.81 SEE = 9.2)
PCC/RW Inspection
PCC/TW Inspection
100

80

60
PCI

40

20

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Year
(b)

FIGURE 3 Pavement function: significance of (a) AC pavement factors and ( b) PCC pavement
factors. (RW  runway, TW  taxiway.)

and are aprons similar until a difference in behavior emerges after
age 30.
The effects of factor combinations within the AC and PCC pave-
ment functions were further investigated. Figures 4a and 4b illus-
trate the deterioration patterns of AC runway (RW) and taxiway
(TW) pavements subjected to different distress causes. AC pave-
ments that exhibit load-induced distresses deteriorate at a greater
rate than pavements with environment-induced damages. Compared
with AC taxiway curves in Figure 3a and Figure 4b, the runway
curves slope downward more rapidly at the beginning of the life
span, but the deterioration curves of aged runway pavements flatten
out, while aged AC taxiway pavements continue to deteriorate. A
possible reason is that, generally, runways experience more intense
traffic, and as pavements begin to deteriorate, runways receive more
intensive and extensive maintenance than do taxiways. Figure 5
indicates that the effects of maintenance and construction history,
climate zone, base drainage condition, and pavement thickness are
not very influential on AC performance. Although it is not statistically
significant, Figure 5d illustrates a more rapid rate of deterioration in
thin pavements, as would be expected.
The analysis reveals that for AC pavements, pavement function
and the nature of distress cause are influential for performance
modeling and are significant enough to distinguish the deterioration
patterns. The inclusion of pavement thickness may serve to charac-
terize the different behavior of pavements with different structural
capacities. PCC pavements appear to be sensitive to pavement func-
Yuan and Mooney Paper No. 03- 3190 49

100

80

60

PCI
40

AC/RW
20
AC/RW/Environment
AC/RW/Load and Combined
0
0 10 20 30 40
Age (year)
(a)

100

80

60
PCI

40

AC/TW
20
AC/TW/Environment
AC/TW/Load and Combined
0
0 10 20 30 40
Age (year)
(b)

FIGURE 4 Nature of distress cause: (a) AC / RW pavement factors, (b) AC / TW

pavement factors.

tion and climate zone. These influential factors were identified as
pavement family variables.
Family Models
The polynomial equations and statistical indices of 11 pavement fam-
ilies are summarized in Table 3. Of all cases presented in Table 3, out-
lier removal generally increases R2 and decreases SEE. With outliers
excluded, the average R2 increased from 0.55 to 0.64 for AC families
and from 0.64 to 0.73 for PCC families. Table 3 indicates that the
increase of R2 and the decrease of SEE caused by the removal of out-
liers become minimal for pavement families with four levels of fam-
ily variables and become very significant for pavement families
defined with fewer family variables. This suggests that the poly-
nomial of a well-defined pavement family is better fit. Among AC
pavements, pavements exhibiting environment-induced distresses are
more predictable than pavements subjected to load-induced damages.
VERIFICATION INSPECTIONS
To assess the reliability of the deterioration models summarized in
Table 3, the project staff revisited 10 randomly selected airports
that included 36 AC sections and 12 PCC sections belonging to
7 AC pavement families and 3 PCC pavement families, respec-
tively. Among them, 20 AC sections and 7 PCC sections had received
preventive maintenance after the first inspections, including crack
sealing and slurry sealing for AC pavements and joint sealing for
PCC slabs. To verify the models, most reinspections were con-
ducted on the sample units that had previously been surveyed. Fig-
ure 6 compares the predicted PCI on the basis of family polynomials,
with PCI determined by inspections in 2002. Most data points
representing the pavements that received no preventive treatment
fall within the boundaries of ±5 PCI residuals. The performance
models tend to underpredict PCI of treated AC pavements when the
PCI values are >55 and to accurately predict PCI of untreated AC
pavements.
50 Paper No. 03- 3190 Transportation Research Record 1853

100 100

80 80

60 60
PCI

PCI
40 AC/RW/AC 40
AC/RW/ACAC
20 AC/RW/ACPC 20 AC/RW/environment/DNF
AC/RW/environment/WNF
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40
Age (year) Age (year)
(a) (b)

100 100

80 80

60 60
PCI

40 PCI 40
AC/RW/environment/drained AC/RW/environment/thin
20 20 AC/RW/environment/medium
AC/RW/environment/undrained
AC/RW/environment/thick
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40
Age (year) Age (year)
(c) (d)

FIGURE 5 Significance of AC pavement factors: (a) rehabilitation history, (b) climate zone, (c) base drainage condition, and (d) pavement
thickness.

On the basis of the results presented in Figure 6, it appears that
the family models can predict deterioration fairly reliably given that
the deviations caused by preventive maintenance are expected.
Because the short-term effects of preventive maintenance are sig-
nificant, it is essential to integrate preventive maintenance into
pavement deterioration modeling or to conduct frequent visual inspec-
tions to take into consideration effects of preventive maintenance.
However, the validation of models presented here are fairly limited,
because of limited data points (average four reinspection points for
each model) and short intervals (1 to 2 years) between the initial
inspections and reinspections. It appears necessary to conduct more
extensive validations as the reinspections progress.

TABLE 3 Family Models, Goodness of Fit, and Polynomial Parameters

Yuan and Mooney
100
75
Observed PCI
50
AC pavement without PM
25 AC pavement with PM
PCC pavement without PM
PCC pavement with PM
+/- 5 residual boundaries
0 integrate the effects of major M&R treatments and airport or branch
0 25 50 75 100
Predicted PCI
FIGURE 6 PCI observed in 2002 versus predicted PCI based on
family and section polynomials.
WEB-BASED MODELING FEATURES
Online Operations
As a web-based system, the OAC APMS allows authorized users to
enter pavement data online and download reports (1). Through data
entry interfaces, users can modify existing airport and network con-
figurations, input the details of new visual distress surveys, and
update section-based pavement structure details and M&R histories.
Once the data entry is completed, users can command the system to
update the modeling. All results of modeling, including polynomial
parameters, statistical indexes, constraints, and section and family
age offset, are stored in a ready-to-browse database table that can be
accessed by reporting components and the M&R work planner.
Through links, users can download detailed pavement distresses,
geotechnical data, and condition forecasts.
Section Condition Forecast Report
Figure 7a shows the web page of a typical section condition forecast
report. The report page consists of three integrated frames: an inter-
active airport map, a diagram of family and section deterioration
curves, and a tabular forecast report. Clicking a section displayed in
the airport map will prompt the system to display both the diagram
and the tabular report for the selected section. In addition to the fam-
ily and section curves, the polynomial parameters, curve fit indices,
and information of families and constraints are shown in the dia-
gram frame. The tabular report presents multiyear forecasts and
summarizes all previous inspections made on the section.
Network Condition Forecast Report
Network pavement condition is predicted by using the area-
weighted average PCI. Users can browse the detailed network con-
ditions by airport, runway, taxiway, and apron. Figure 7b shows the
5-year condition forecasts for all inspected runways and illustrates
the time trends of pavement deterioration with bar charts that plot
Paper No. 03- 3190 51
pavement areas versus various condition states. A link is provided
to sort airports or branches according to their area-weighted average
PCI values.
ADAPTIVE MODELING FEATURES
Major M&R Treatment and Extension of
Airport or Branch
The application of major M&R treatments, such as overlays, recon-
struction, and resurfacing, will increase the project-level PCI to 100.
The extension of existing airport branches and the addition of new
branches will upgrade the APMS network. These major investments
will improve project and network conditions and affect deterioration
forecasts. The OAC APMS performance models can automatically
expansion into the condition assessment matrix. The system will
predict the deterioration of newly rehabilitated pavements and con-
structed sections based on their updated pavement factors, although
those new pavements may not have been inspected. Meanwhile, to
sustain the integrity of the database, the system will preserve all his-
torical inspection data that represent conditions before the sections
were rehabilitated, reconstructed, or removed and use the data in
modeling.
All M&R activities applied to each section and pavement struc-
ture are chronologically documented in the database. The system
will compare the section M&R history with the inspection inven-
tory. If a new construction or major M&R activity is applied after
the latest inspection on that section, the system will assign a virtual
inspection with a PCI of 100 to that section and automatically assign
the rehabilitated section into an appropriate family in accordance
with its updated pavement factor vector.
Accepting Expert Opinions
Throughout the lives of pavements, preventive maintenance and
treatments are applied to decelerate deterioration and maintain
pavement serviceability. Preventive treatments instantly increase
pavement conditions (short-term effects) and extend a pavement’s
serviceable life span (long-term effects). Most PCI values of aged
pavements reflect the built-in maintenance effects. The effects of
preventive maintenance become more obvious for GA pavements
with very low traffic. As a result, the deterioration curves flatten out
as pavements age.
The OAC APMS provides an interface where pavement engineers
can modify the family models through expert opinion. Expert opin-
ion on terminal serviceability, terminal life spans, and expected pave-
ment conditions at certain ages is incorporated into modeling as an
extra constraint for the least-squares regression defined in Equation 1.
Figure 8 presents two polynomials modified from the original per-
formance model of the AC–Runway–Environment–Thin family with
two sets of expert opinion. This function makes it possible for pave-
ment engineers to investigate different maintenance scenarios and
optimize the deterioration models. It also can help pavement engi-
neers answer “what-if” questions—for example, What would happen
if a certain level of routine maintenance were not applied? Expert
opinion can be gained from inspections of abandoned or less-
maintained pavements or can be generalized from engineers’ expe-
rience. Another application of the expert opinion interface is to refine
and even directly develop a deterioration model for a pavement
family that does not have enough historical data points.
52 Paper No. 03- 3190 Transportation Research Record 1853

(a)

(b)

FIGURE 7 Web-based condition forecast reports: (a) section condition, (b) network condition.
Yuan and Mooney Paper No. 03- 3190 53

100

80

60
PCI

40

20

Inspection of AC/RW/Thin/Environment family

0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Age (year)
Family polynomial with slope constraints only
Family polynomial with slope constraints and the terminal constraints PCI<10 @ 45
yrs.
Family polynomial with slope constraints and multiple constraints: PCI < 10 @ 45 yrs,
PCI < 30 @ 40 yrs, PCI < 40 @ 30 yrs.

FIGURE 8 Effects of expert opinion.

Integrating Preventive
Maintenance into the APMS
The function of integrating preventive maintenance into modeling
addresses the short-term effects of preventive treatments. Because
family curves represent the average deterioration trends of pave-
ments that received preventive maintenance regularly, long-term
effects of preventive treatments have been built into family curves.
Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that the short-term effects of
preventive maintenance can be expressed as short-duration PCI fluc-
tuations over the section deterioration trends. The algorithm for inte-
grating the short-term effects of preventive maintenance is based on
the assumption illustrated in Figure 9. The short-term effect of a pre-
ventive treatment can be defined with two parameters—effective
duration and PCI increase. Integrating preventive maintenance into
the APMS can be accomplished through a combination of following
components:
• The section-based M&R history database table that chronolog-
ically documents details of all treatments applied to every section,
including the date, type, and description of each treatment or each
combination of treatments;
• Visual inspection inventory that provides time of all inspections
on the section investigated;

100
Age Offset
Effective Duration of PM

80
PCI Increase due to PM

60 Section Curve
PCI

Family Curve
40

20

0
0 10 20 30 40
Age (year)

FIGURE 9 Schematic of integrating pavement management into section

performance modeling.
54 Paper No. 03- 3190
• The experience-based preventive maintenance short-time effect
parameters that quantify the effective duration and PCI increase
resulting from every individual preventive treatment or every normal
combination of preventive treatments;
• The equations of section curves; and
• The algorithm that queries the M&R history table and the
inspection inventory and modifies the section curve by using
experience-based preventive maintenance parameters.
Once experience-based preventive maintenance effect parameters
are defined, the deterioration models will be able to integrate the
short-term effects of preventive treatments into condition modeling
and optimizing M&R strategies.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Web-based adaptive airfield pavement performance models were
developed to support the OAC APMS. Substantial effort was
extended to historical records review, pavement assessment, and
data-base development. The significance of seven pavement factors
that characterize Oklahoma airfield pavement deterioration was
investigated. In Oklahoma, the deterioration trends of AC pavements
are more significantly affected by cause of distress, pavement
function, and pavement structure thickness. PCC pavements were
found to be sensitive to pavement function and climate zone. Pave-
ments were grouped into families by sorting family variables.
Eleven PCI-based family models were developed by using the
constrained least-squares method.
Model validation was performed. The performance models
tended to underpredict the PCI of treated AC pavements when the
PCI values were >55 and to accurately predict PCI of untreated AC
pavements. Furthermore, the family polynomial curves were able
to reveal the expected deterioration patterns, and they are sensible.
The approach of defining families according to influential pave-
ment variables can substantially increase the reliability of modeling
and prediction. The deterioration models automatically integrate
expert opinion and the effects of major M&R activities. The sys-
tem was configured to have the potential ability to integrate effects
of preventive treatments. From the up-to-date database, the dete-
rioration models can update forecasts automatically. This research
revealed that investigating pavement factors thoroughly and tailor-
ing the family method to fit the deterioration characteristics of the
pavement network are significant for deterioration modeling. Data-
base integrity and inclusion of all variables that significantly affect
Transportation Research Record 1853
pavement performance into the modeling are vital to the success
of a PMS.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This project was funded by the Oklahoma Aeronautics Commission
and the FAA. The assistance provided by Oklahoma Aeronautics
Commission personnel is gratefully acknowledged. The authors
thank Vivek Khanna, Timothy Parsons, Tariq B. Harmid, and Jie
Liang Pan for their assistance.
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Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Pavement Management
Systems.