FACULTY OF ARTS

DEPARTMENT OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

NAME SURNAME REG NUMBER

NYASHA CHIBUNGU M172053
TAURAI STAR CHEZHIRA M171695
TENDAI MAKANJERA M172409

MODULE POLITICAL ECONOMY HDVS 405

COURSE B A HONOURS IN DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

QUESTION EXAMINE THE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL CONFLICTS ON THE

DEVELOPMENT OF EAST AFRICAN ECONOMIES IN POST

COLONIAL EPIC

LECTURER MR MAKWINJA
Regional conflicts have had a harmful effect on the development of East African economies
to a greater extent. The major threats posed to economic development by these conflicts
include creating or worsen political instability, disruption of agricultural, disruption, scaling
down or closure of agriculture associated industries, destruction of infrastructure, loss of
labor through death or displacement, a greater strain on government budget and resources,
they lead to exiting of investors and deters potential foreign investment, they make it difficult
for nations and economies to integrate. A direct negative impact is generated against
education, provision of quality health services hence increased likelihood of disease
outbreaks and broadly budgetary pressure. However regional conflicts led to achievement of
equality and democracy hence respect of human rights through recognition of both minority
and majority groups. Representation of all regional groups in parliament means development
can be achieved on an even basis for all people through inclusion though to a lesser extent.

Regional conflicts are defined by Bates et al (2003) as any episode of violent conflict in
which national, ethnic and religious or other communal minorities challenge government to
seek major changes in status.

To begin, regional conflicts impacted negatively on the development of east African

economies in post-colonial epic as they lead to decline in agricultural output. Agriculture is
of paramount importance to developing countries. Yakubu (2015) notes that it contributes
about 32% of GDP, employing 60% of the labour force. Farrington also notes that it
contributes 14-18% of GDP, 40% of export earnings and provides 60% of raw materials for
industry. Fighting and social unrest associated with regional conflicts negatively impact on
agriculture as people concentrate of fighting rather than production. Even for those not
interested in fighting and havoc, they cannot work in their fields for fear of the unstable
environment that prevails owing to the conflict situation. BBC estimated that the overall loss
of harvesting during the period of the Rwandan Genocide was as high as 60%. HRW states
that A Bambara leader said: “Since 2015, so many of our people have been gunned down in
their farms, at home, or on their way to market Crops may also be destroyed in the process of
fighting as fields may be set ablaze. The result is food insecurity, hunger, starvation and
malnutrition on the local population which exacerbates poverty and thus becoming a major
drawback against government and community efforts to reduce poverty and foster economic
development. These killings most often instil fear and instability in the locals and this affects
their daily activities including agriculture which is the source of livelihood. Therefore, one
can argue that regional conflicts impedes development of East African economies.
Furthermore, regional conflicts impacted negatively on the development of east African
economies in post-colonial epic through destruction of infrastructure which is an important
part of the economic development. Infrastructure like roads, bridges and buildings facilitates
economic growth as they help in transportation of raw materials, semi-finished and finished
goods to the market and to storage. This can also lead to decline in the social interrelated
structure services, education and health care system which can lead to malfunction of the
economy. Most regional conflicts in Africa have been characterized by armed fighting and
they happen over long periods of time. Hence there are very high of chances of buildings,
houses, roads, bridges, schools, network and communication lines being interrupted or
vandalized. According to O. Bradley (2018), The 1994 genocide grievously impacted
infrastructure in Rwanda. Roads and buildings were destroyed, staff members from utility
companies and ministries fled or were killed and many government and private records were
destroyed. Nwazota argues that his results in loss of shelter, communication, disruption of
education which leads to higher illiteracy rates in the long run, detachment of the affected
community from the wider economy hence excluding people, industries and businesses from
actively participating thus they lose ground for propelling development. This also places
stress on government budget as it has to incur cost of repairing or rebuilding the
infrastructure especially for public service. Therefore, one can argue that regional conflicts
impedes development of East African economies.

Moreover, regional conflicts impacted negatively on the development of east African

economies in post-colonial epic as they lead to loss of human capital. It can be classified as
the economic value of a worker's experience and skills which is a major concern to
development. Labor is critical in most sectors of production including agriculture, trade and
industry. The violence, fighting and massacres that occurs during regional conflict results in
loss of life of skilled and unskilled labour. Their skills are the backbone of economic
activities like mining and agriculture which are vital for development of economies. Some
flea to other countries seeking refugee facilities and some are internally displaced, hence
leading to the crumbling of the economy as they create shortage of labour scenarios.
According to Kaldor (2006), noted that 2.6 million people were displace in sierra leone, 2.7
million from the eastern provinces of Congo. This led to poor production and higher wage
costs and it affected the communities that have incurred a massive loss of expending material,
financial and educational resources equipping people from whom the community will benefit
very little from. In central Mali, the killings, by Islamist armed groups like Peuhl and self-
defense militias have resulted in at least 52 deaths, led to the displacement of over 10,000
people, these killings and displacement impacted negatively on the economic development
progress of the country. Hence one can argue that regional conflicts impedes development of
East African economies.

More so, regional conflicts impacted negatively on the development of east African
economies in post-colonial epic as they lead to closure of industries. Disruption of agriculture
also means the scaling down or closure of industry associated with agriculture. Industries
such as textiles, milling are heavily dependent on agriculture as it supplies the raw materials
required by these industries to continue production. Disruption of agriculture therefore during
periods of regional conflict has long term effects on industry. Scaling down of operations by
industries means loss of employment by many who are employed in the industrial sector.
This translates to a sharp rise in unemployment rate which is already a problem for most
developing economies. The higher the unemployment rate, the greater the burden on
government. The wider impact of industries scaling down operations also becomes scarcity of
commodities in the market which will lead to higher and rising prices and disruption of trade.
The proportion of people affected by disruption of trade is a major negative addition to the
string of problems triggered by ethnic conflicts. Hence one can argue that regional conflicts
impedes development of East African economies.

In addition, regional conflicts impacted negatively on the development of east African

economies in post-colonial epic as they put pressure on government budgeting and spending.
Regional conflicts forces governments to divert money budgeted for economic development
to high military spending that drains innovation, investment and manufacturing strength from
the civilian economy. Also, money budgeted for economic development can be redirected
towards repairing, rebuilding and maintaining public service infrastructure like hospitals,
clinics, roads, schools, communication lines that have been destroyed during the conflict. One
can note that during the Darfur conflict, the Sudanese government even the score by sending
in government forces to suppress the revolt. The government also reportedly organized and
supplied the Janjaweed militia to combat the rebels. According to the Human Rights Watch
(2017), noted that the recent violence in Sudan displaced nearly 8,000 people, about 3,800 of
who sought safety in the Catholic Church. Others have moved to a site adjacent to the United
Nations’ Mission to South Sudan base, where more than 25,000 people had already gathered
under UN protection in the long term, the economy is trapped in debt and the focus becomes
repaying debt at the expense of investment in progressive local development projects and
programs. Investments also have to be made in resuscitating the local agricultural sector as
well as aiding citizens affected by the conflict by capacitating them to be self-reliant as they
were before. The government may also find itself in a slippery position that it may be forced
to borrow in order to supplement its capital since its own revenue is depleted as taxes are lost
with active service population as people are either killed, displaced or migrate, industrial
operations scaled down or stopped mean profits and taxes fall, the export industry is also
affected and the ultimate burden rests on the government. Therefore, one can argue that
regional conflicts impedes development of East African economies.

Also, regional conflicts impacted negatively on the development of east African economies in
post-colonial epic as they lead to decline in Foreign Direct Investment. Due to unstable
political and economic environment created by regional conflicts also can resulting closure
and exiting of foreign companies which would have invested in the economy of the victim
country. Though they have been said to carry with them many disadvantages, foreign
companies and MNCs are undeniably an important contribution to the local economy. By
continuously operating within a certain country, these companies become fused with the local
economy providing employment to the local people and revenue into the coffers of the
government. Their capacity to undertake large scale operation across the economic platform
is also important as most developing economies do not possess the capacity to undertake such
activities all by themselves, and it may be long before most can capacitate themselves to a
level where they do not require intervention or assistance from foreign companies. This
would result in scarcity of whatever product a particular foreign company was offering. In the
same vein, the fragile and explosive environment perpetuated by ethnic conflicts can also
deter potential investors. Li (2017) noted that this would leave a nation with a very limited
source of forex and room for development. Hence one can argue that regional conflicts
impedes development of East African economies.

Regional conflicts impacted negatively on the development of east African economies in

post-colonial epic as they lead to decline in GDP of the countries. Decreased investment,
trade, and productivity, along with human and physical capital destruction including through
forced displacement and devastating effects on education and health care, are some of the key
channels through which conflict impedes economic growth. Taken together, these factors
lead to a persistent decline in the productive capacity of an economy; counterfactual analysis
suggests that conflicts imply a drop in real GDP per capita of 15 to 20 percent over five years
compared with a no-conflict scenario. According to HRW, noted that during Rwandan
genocide, there was a 58% decrease in GDP in 1994. This effect still corresponds to a
decrease in GDP per capita of around 31% when taking into account that 800,000 people
were killed and that around two million fled the country during the genocide. Therefore, one
can argue that regional conflicts impedes development of East African economies.

Lastly, regional conflicts impacted negatively on the development of east African economies
in post-colonial epic as they lead to decline in trade volumes. Due to affected production,
trade volumes also shrink leading to economic downfall. This simply means there will be less
inflow of forex. When focusing on the effects on the Rwandan exports as reported by the
importing countries, we find similar short-run effects but somewhat slower recovery. Hence
one can argue that regional conflicts impedes development of East African economies.

However, to a lesser extent, regional conflicts carry with them some useful economic changes
which are worth discussing. The loss of labor can be an important aspect in the post conflict
period as it leads to higher wages. The displacement or migration of some of the workforce
increases the demand for labor and the available industries companies and firms have to raise
their wage margins to attract the scarce labor they would need. Bartik noted that demand
shocks to local job growth have greater effects in increasing real wages if the economy
initially has low employment as well as increasing labor force participation. Higher earnings
would possibly be a positive impact on the employees as they have enough to spend in
meeting their basic needs. Higher spending is good for the economy as taxes, a major source
of government revenue, can be paid by consumers and businesses alike without problems.
With higher wages also there is surplus to invest in projects and business in both the formal
and informal sectors of the economy.

More so ethnic conflicts can lead to constitutional reformations in a bid to achieve peace and
solve the issues of interest of the conflicting ethnicities. Usually these conflicts are between
minority and majority ethnic groups. For example, the Hutu and Tutsi conflict of 1994 in
Rwanda was triggered by the need for equal representation in government by the minority.
By the end of the conflict, reformations had been made to accommodate both ethnicities in
the parliament and a quota system where the amount of government seats belonging to
women was raised from 30-55%. Kaldor (2006) also reported that in Liberia, the second civil
war led resulted in the removal of Charles Taylor and with the help of the UN a new
democratic form of government that stands for equal rights and even has a woman president
in Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Such an achievement is important in fostering development as it
encourages democracy and equality. A transition to democracy can positively lead to
increased economic growth by encouraging investment of the country and its people and
through Foreign direct investment which can improve education, lead to economic
restructuring and public good provision

In a nutshell, regional conflicts have negatively impacted on the development of east African
economies in post-colonial epic to a greater extent. This is due to political instability,
disruption of agriculture and other economic and industrial processes, higher costs and strain
placed on the government in dealing with conflicts and damage in the aftermath, destruction
of infrastructure as well loss of life hence loss of skilled and unskilled labor which negatively
impacts on production to mention a few. However, conflicts may facilitate the realization of
equality and inclusion of the minority groups which generally translates to improved
democratic and constitutional rule leading to economic growth though to a lesser extent.
REFERENCES

Bates H, Nguyen M and Caselli F. Causes of ethnic conflicts: the role of religious diversity.
Available at www.creighton.edu/fileadmin/user/CCAS/docs/Mai_Nguyen.pdf

Bartik JT. 2015. How effects of local labor demand shocks vary with the initial local
unemployment rate. Growth and change journal. Vol 46

Bradley O. 2018. Infrastructure in Rwanda Seeing Major Progress. Borgen Magazine 

BBC Background: ethnic tensions in Rwanda http://www.history.com/topics/rwandan-
genocide

Farrington J (2012) The role of nongovernmental organizations in extension

http://www.fao.org/docrep/W5830E/w5830e0p.htm

HRW April 14, 2017South Sudan: New Spate of Ethnic Killings

HRW. April 5, 2017 Mali: Spate of Killings by Armed Groups

Investigate abuses, protect vulnerable civilians. https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/04/05/mali-

spate-killings-armed-groups

Journal of African Economies, Volume 28, Issue 1, January 2019, Pages 1–

17, https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejy008

Kaldor M. (2006) New and old wars.

Li C (2017). The impact of civil war on foreign direct investment flows to developing nations.
Available at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09638199.2016.1270347

Nwazota. K (2008) http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/africa-july-dec08-origins_07-03/

Yakubu M (2015). Neglecting agriculture and its consequences to the economy. Ecojounals.
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