Migrating from Oracle Demand

Planning to Demantra
Changes in Process & Organization
By
Arun Cavale, NexInfo
Tom Buechler, Turquoise Consulting
 About us

Arun Cavale is President of NexInfo. He is a supply chain

process consultant specializing in solution design using
Oracle’s Manufacturing and Advanced Planning modules

Tom Buechler is President of Turquoise Consulting with 11

years of Oracle Applications experience. He specializes in
the manufacturing and supply chain applications with a
broad knowledge of many areas of functionality and
business processes
 Assumption on Audience
Our presentation is created for an audience that has a
working knowledge of Oracle Demand Planning
Application and is familiar with Demantra
 Agenda
• Demantra module overview
• Compare Demantra to Demand Planning
• Migration Path to Demantra
• Process Redefinition for Demantra
• Organization Changes for Demantra
• Summary
Demantra Overview
 Demantra Overview
Modules
• Oracle Demantra Platform of 6 Solutions
 Demand Management
 Advanced Forecasting and Demand Modeling
 Real Time Sales and Operational Planning
 Predictive Trade Planning
 Trade Promotion Optimization
 Deductions and Settlement Management
 Demantra Overview
Features

Demand Management
 Functionality to import data
 Statistical forecasting
 Reporting and Analysis
 Collaboration
 Limited Causal and tuning capabilities
Advanced Forecasting & Demand Modeling
 Additional Forecasting models
 Causal contribution analysis & unlimited causal factors
 Advanced tuning capabilities (nodal tuning)
 Event analysis
 Cross correlations – what event or attribute drove demand
 Attribute based planning (shape modeling)
 Demantra Overview
Features
Real Time Sales & Operational Planning
 Top down and bottoms up plan validation
 Supply Series for Demand Supply Matching
 Financial Gap Analysis
 Worksheets to Support Processes
• Sales
• Marketing
• Supply Planning
• New Product Planning
 Notes and audit trails
 Demantra Overview
Features

Predictive Trade Planning

Execute administrative tasks related to promotion planning
Analyze & display promotion effectiveness
Compute & display decomposition of lifts, halo and
cannibalization effects
Scenario evaluation against profitability, quota and allocated
budget
Simulate promotion response

Trade Promotion Optimization

 Optimization routine suggests optimal set of promotion tactics
needed to maximize ROI, volume or revenue
 Increased sales with flat promotion spending or maintain sales
with reduced promotion spending
 Demantra Overview
Features

Deductions and Settlement Management

 Reconcile deductions and payments from your retailer per
promotion
 Smart-Matching proposes a screened list of likely matching
events based on user configurable parameters
 Auto-Matching can find exact match
 Demantra Overview
Components
• Collections
 Provides ability to collect data from the Source (Oracle
EBS or other Transaction Systems)
• Dimensions
 Provides 2 seeded dimensions Item & Location
 Combination defined as a node
 All hierarchies created on these two dimensions
• Series
 Data sets in Demantra identified as Series
Example: Sales History, Booking History etc.
 Demantra Overview
Components
• Forecast Functionality
 Ability to create forecast using different Statistical Models
based on History Data
 Bayesian forecast model
 Ability to tune forecast engine at nodal level
• Forecast Load / Entry
 Ability to manually enter forecasts or load forecasts from
files
• Worksheets
 Worksheet functionality to layout, analyze, manipulate and
collaborate
• Forecast Upload
 Publish forecast to Advanced Supply Chain Plan
 Demantra Overview
Shows series data in Table, Graph or Calendar view
Demantra Overview
Forecasting Methodology
 Demantra Overview
Analytics for greater accuracy
Promotions

Statistical Models

Optimal
Introduction

Seasonality of
Multiple Causal Factors

History

Products

Effect of
Bayesian Weather on
Bayesian Predictive
Promotion
Estimator Combined Model Effectiveness
Model
POS

Baseline

Promo Lift

Cannibalization
Shipments
Demantra vs Demand Planning
 Demantra vs Demand Planning
Key Features

Demantra has excellent performance in the Demand

Planning problem functions including Download and
Worksheet Manipulation

Demantra has enhanced Demantra has functionality

functionality compared to and analytical capability for
Demand Planning. It is split easier and quicker iterative
into multiple modules Sales and Operational
based on function Planning Process
 Demantra vs Demand Planning
Functional Features
Demand Planning allows
use of multiple Demand Demand Planning allows Business
Plans Users to create ad-hoc Measures
Demantra uses multiple (Formula and Stored)
series and security to meet Demantra needs IT to define new
the business requirement for
multiple plans Series

Demantra has enhanced color coding capabilities

Demantra does not have one to Demand Planning has a simple

one match of the Demand
Planning drill down capability but
has the ability to embed
worksheets within worksheets to
achieve drilldown functionality
Statistical Model based
forecasting
Demantra has an advanced
‘Bayesian’ model based
forecasting
 Demantra vs Demand Planning
Functional Features

Demantra has Enhanced Alert Demantra does not have the

Functionality and Ability to run Demand Planning “distribute &
Complete Worksheets using
Workflow collect” function. You can configure
security rules and workflow at any
(group or user) level to achieve the
Demantra does not allow same
business users to upload
Excel Spreadsheets Unlike Demand
Planning, Demantra
allows creation and
Demantra can currently publish only to a use of multiple
single forecast (in the future – two) hierarchies without
whereas Demand Planning publishes greatly impacting
performance
multiple forecasts based on plan or
scenario definition
 Demantra vs Demand Planning
Technical Features

Demantra system Demantra does not use the Demand

performance is greatly Planning Fact Data tables to store
superior to Demand History & Scenarios (Archives,
Planning performance Forecasts etc) but publishes to the
same tables for interface with Advanced
Supply Chain Planning

Demand Planning processing

Demand Planning downloads
data into Express or Oracle OLAP
Demantra does not use Express
or Oracle OLAP. It uses Oracle
Tables for all the processing
including Forecast generation
in OLAP
Demantra Forecast generation
takes place in a Windows
Client environment
Migration to Demantra
 Migration to Demantra
Key Considerations
• Migration to Demantra is not an upgrade
• No supported ‘out of the box’ migration path
• Complexity in migrating data to Demantra
 Change in application architecture
 Change in data model
 Change in development environment
 Change in functionality
• No Plan Concept
• No ‘Distribute & Collect’ function
• Limited published forecasts
 Migration to Demantra
Solution Considerations
• Redefine processes to use Demantra
 Use ‘Series’ and security rules to replace Demand Plans
 Use workflow and user /group level security to define planning
processes
 Use workflow and ‘Series’ functionality to support multiple
forecasts
• Create custom migration path
 Map Hierarchies
 Map ‘Stream’ Data
 Map ‘Measure’ Data
 Map ‘Demand Plan’
 Map access controls
• Data model changes to support new ‘Hierarchies’, ‘Series’ etc
 Migration to Demantra
Solution Considerations

• Design distributed forecast engine for load handling

• Development & infrastructure support
 Windows environment for forecast generation
 Separate client environment for defining ‘Hierarchies’,
‘Series’ etc
 Data model expertise for making data model changes
 Client Analysis
Client A – Key Characteristics

• Manufacturing enterprise with US $ 2 B+ revenues

• Multiple Country/Operating Units/Organizations
• Customer base – very large
• Product base – very large
 Seasonal and non-seasonal
 Some products use promotions
• S&OP Process using ODP, ASCP and Excel
spreadsheets
• Would like to improve supply chain response
 Client Analysis
Client A – Pre-Demantra challenges

• No customer level forecasting - large customer–item–

warehouse combinations
• Forecasting at single level - Complexity in segregation
• ODP download times lead to long S&OP iteration times
• Products with low accuracy statistical forecasts
• Single product hierarchy inconvenient to reporting
• No analysis of influence factors like currency exchange
rates, weather etc.
• Forecast cycle spans across countries/time zones and
groups with restricted access
• Proven data sources and validated data streams used in
Demand Planning
 Client Analysis
Client A – NexInfo Solution

• Software profile – Demantra DM, Demantra AFDM, Demantra

RTSNOP, ASCP and Inventory Optimization
• Forecasting at Item-Location level
• Forecast tree determines forecasting level
• Excellent performance reduces cycle times
• Increased accuracy with advanced forecast tuning
• Use multiple hierarchies with no performance impact
• Model causal factors to influence forecasts
• Use collaboration capabilities in Demantra combined with
security/access controls
• Map existing data sources and streams to Demantra
• Complete S&OP process done quicker and online
 Client Analysis
Client B – Key Characteristics

• Manufacturing/distribution enterprise with US $ 2 B+

revenues
• Multiple Country/Operating Units/Organizations
• Customer base – small
 High collaboration and service level expectations
• Product base – not very large
 New innovative products with no established market
 High product obsolescence
• S&OP Process using ODP, ASCP and Excel
spreadsheets
 Client Analysis
Client B – Pre-Demantra Challenges

• Inaccuracies in monthly S&OP cycle because customers

provide forecasts at different times
• End market data available at high level in raw form
• Crossover and manual hand off functions between
groups not well coordinated
• ODP download times lead to long S&OP iteration times
• Forecast cycle spans across countries/time zones
• Proven data sources, validated data streams and
valuable archived data used in Demand Planning
 Client Analysis
Client B – NexInfo Solution
• Software profile – Demantra DM, Demantra AFDM, Demantra
RTSNOP, ASCP and Inventory Optimization
• Frequent S&OP cycles
 Adjust to customer forecast inputs
 Manage product obsolescence
• Create meaningful end market statistical forecast using raw data
and causal factors
• Enhanced functionality for new product introductions
• Establish customer service level measurements and monitor by
exceptions
• Use collaboration capabilities in Demantra
• Use workflow to control hand offs and notifications
• Map existing data sources and streams to Demantra
• Convert archives into Demantra
Process Redefinition
 Process Redefinition
Switching to Demantra

• Leverage rich software enhancements to support:

 Demand management processes
 Sales & Operational Planning
 Trade Promotions
• Utilize workflow driven environment
• Limit number of forecasts published
• Reduce ad-hoc definition changes
• Predefine worksheets for drilldown
 Process Redefinition
Switching to Demantra

• Improve analysis using Causals, events and nodal

analysis
 Identify and analyze causal factors
 Identify, correlate and analyze events
 Nodal analysis of statistical forecast
 Process Redefinition
Switching to Demantra

• Improve Sales & Operational Planning Process

 Improve iterative cycle time with reduced latency
 Use the Increased analytical capabilities
Multiple pre-defined S&OP worksheets
Analyze and report along multiple hierarchies
Increased support for matching Demand & Supply data
Work concurrently on multiple worksheets
 Create complex workflow driven end to end process
Define all steps and exceptions
Control transfer and informational notifications
 Process Redefinition
Switching to Demantra

• Trade Promotions
 Compute and analyze lift from specific promotions
 Use the simulation and analytical capabilities
Changes to Organization
 Organizational Changes
Business organization considerations

Forecasting & planning organization

• Increased statistical analysis strengths
• Integrate all planning participants using workflow
• Ability to work offline increases scope of participants
Sales & marketing organization
• to use the ability to track and respond to volatility in product sales
• Better organized promotion campaigns
Enterprise
• Integrate business, financial, sales and supply planning processes
 Organizational Changes
Business organization considerations

Information technology & infrastructure Organization

• Technical (IT) involvement in creating / modifying series,
hierarchies etc.
• Change in IT support Level
 Needs Business and Technical knowledge
• Windows Client environment support from Infrastructure
Summary
 Summary
Demand Planning to Demantra

• Demantra has rich functionality to support

 Sales & demand planning processes
 Sales and Operational Planning process
 Promotions management processes
• Business Process & Organizational Changes
 Understanding differences between Demand Planning and Demantra
based processes
• Technical Support Changes
 New level of technical support
 Understanding the infrastructure changes
• Create customized Migration Path
 Understanding Functionality and Technology in ODP and Demantra
 More about us

Arun Cavale – NexInfo

arunc@nexinfosolutions.com
714.338.6165

Tom Buechler – Turquoise Consulting Unlimited

tom.buechler@tcunltd.com
310.923.5719

Special thanks to:

Sandeep Goyal – NexInfo
Sandeep is a Supply Chain Planning Techno-Functional Consultant
specialized in implementing Oracle’s Advanced Planning modules
End