Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Cochin Shipyard: Capital Goods
Cochin Shipyard: Capital Goods
Cochin Shipyard: Capital Goods
Well-placed to overcome near-term constraints. CSL continues to invest for growth CMP (`): 310
and seek orders to utilize the ongoing capex following a successful FY2020. In such a Fair Value (`): 550
context and given good visibility of five years on trailing revenues, we look beyond (1)
BSE-30: 34,869
the recent loss of shipbuilding jobs to competition, (2) near-term cash-flow challenges
and (3) near-term execution challenges related to Covid-19. We revise our estimates by
31%/7% for FY2021/22E and fair value to Rs550 from Rs610.
Cochin Shipyard
Stock data Forecasts/valuations 2020 2021E 2022E
52-week range (Rs) (high,low) 492-209 EPS (Rs) 48.5 38.9 46.6
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 41/0.6 EPS growth (%) 32.5 (19.7) 19.7
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 113/1 P/E (X) 6.4 8.0 6.6
Shareholding pattern (%) P/B (X) 1.1 1.0 0.9
Promoters 72.9 EV/EBITDA (X) 2.8 3.5 3.5
FIIs 2.1 RoE (%) 18.1 13.2 14.4
MFs/BFIs 9.6/3.5 Div. yield (%) 4.8 3.8 4.1
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Sales (Rs bn) 34 34 46
Absolute 38 43 (18) EBITDA (Rs bn) 7 6 9
Rel. to BSE-30 21 10 (8) Net profits (Rs bn) 6 5 6
FY2020: A year of healthy growth and customer advances limiting impact of higher receivables
4QFY20 saw a limited impact of Coid-19 disruptions leading to a 4% yoy revenue growth.
EBITDA margin expanded 260 bps over a low base, partly supported by execution of a high-
margin ship-repair job. Full-year revenues/PBT grew a healthy 15%/15%. Growth was largely
driven by the IAC-1 execution and a large share of cost-plus portion in the same helped sustain
profitability. The order backlog on a comparable basis is broadly flat yoy and gives five years of
visibility on FY2020 shipbuilding revenues. CSL has generated pre-tax cash profits of Rs8 bn, of
which half have been consumed in working capital, in line with historical trends. The same
masks the meaningful increase in contract assets, which got mitigated in FY2020 by the receipt
of customer advances for the large ASW Corvette job.
FY2021 to see hurdles to execution; CSL focused on wining orders to substitute IAC-1 share
CSL expects a flattish year of revenues, net of challenges to execution it is facing at present. It
mentioned 50% of employee count working at present, 80% of cash flows for 1Q from its key
customer in Indian Navy getting deferred to 2Q and the recent loss of jobs to peers in HSL and
GSL. Headquartered in the state of Kerala, the reliance on migrant labor is high for CSL and it
expects a time overrun for its twin capacity-expansion projects. Its focus, however, remains on
winning incremental ship-building jobs from the Indian Navy (Rs130-150 bn near-term
opportunity) and prospects from private sector clients (coastal shipping) as well as in Europe.
CSL sees enough opportunity in shipbuilding over the next three years to cover up for the end
of IAC-1 – accounts for 70% of the top-line. It has added capacities for fishing vessels through
the acquisition of a distressed asset in Tebma Shipyard to build on the success in the fishing
vessels business. Aditya Mongia
Revise estimates by 31%/7% for FY2021/22; retain BUY with revised FV of Rs550 Teena Virmani
We revise our estimates to account for Covid-19 disruptions and the recent loss of shipbuilding
jobs. This leads to a revised fair value of Rs550. We retain our fair value multiple of 12X as we
build in an unchanged 10% eventual share in naval capex for CSL. We retain our BUY rating. At
CMP, CSL trades at 15X trailing cash flow from operations and negates value of the current
capital WIP and future capex, all of which can be funded from the current cash position.
kspcg.research@kotak.com
Contact: +91 22 6218 6427
For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
Capital Goods Cochin Shipyard
Revenue guidance for FY2021. Due to Covid, CSL lost a significant proportion of
revenues during 1QFY21, which it expects to cover up in the remaining quarters of
FY2021. It expects revenues to remain flat during FY2021. The company doesn’t expect
significant impact on margins for ASW Corvettes due to currency depreciation as the
import component is largely coming from Europe and steel from India. PAT will have an
impact of flat revenues and lower other income for FY2021.
Ship-repair business to benefit from ISRF and dry dock commissioning in FY2022.
The international ship-repair facility and dry dock are under construction and CSL has
spent Rs9.9 bn combined for the same. It expects further capex of nearly Rs11 bn on
both. ISRF initial revenues of Rs2 bn on commissioning will scale up to Rs6.5 bn in 2-3
years. Commissioning of ISRF and dry dock along with Mumbai, Kolkata and Andaman
facilities should help in clocking ship-repair revenues of Rs5.5 bn for FY2021 and Rs7.5
bn for FY2022.
Cash flows may get impacted in near term. The company expects some delay in
payments from the Navy as the government’s priorities have changed in recent times
towards MSMEs, owing to Covid. It expects payments to start getting released from
2QFY21.
Outlook on upcoming opportunities. CSL missed out on a few bids related to floating
docks by the Navy and pollution control vessels from the Indian Coast Guard in recent
times. It expects opportunities worth Rs130-150 bn to be awarded in the next few
quarters. It has bid for new generation missile vessels, which saw bids from other DPSUs,
L&T, Garden Reach Shipbuilders, MDL. It will also be bidding for multipurpose vessels and
off-shore patrol vessels, which are currently in RFP stage.
Exhibit 1: Cochin Shipyard reported a better-than-expected result with a 4%/48%/42% yoy growth in sales/EBITDA/PAT
Quarterly standalone financials of Cochin Shipyard, March fiscal year-end, 4QFY20 (Rs mn)
% change
4QFY20 4QFY20E 4QFY19 3QFY20 vs est. yoy qoq FY2020 FY2019 % change FY2021E FY2020 % change
Net sales 8,167 7,930 7,876 8,961 3 4 (9) 34,194 29,622 15 34,467 34,194 1
Total expenses (6,536) (6,553) (6,776) (6,977) (0) (4) (6) (27,106) (23,904) 13 (28,029) (27,106) 3
Stock — — — — — — — —
Operating expenses (RM and others) (4,728) (5,211) (4,149) (5,716) 14 (17) (21,589) (15,017) 44 (22,256) (21,589) 3
Employee cost (862) (756) (685) (752) 26 15 (3,057) (2,776) 10 (3,234) (3,057) 6
Other expenses (incl. subcontracting) (946) (586) (1,943) (509) (51) 86 (2,460) (6,112) (60) (2,539) (2,460) 3
EBITDA 1,630 1,376 1,100 1,984 18 48 (18) 7,088 5,717 24 6,438 7,088 (9)
Other income 450 497 650 549 (31) (18) 2,479 2,281 9 1,426 2,479 (42)
EBITDA (incl. other income) 2,080 1,873 1,749 2,533 11 19 (18) 9,568 7,998 20 7,865 9,568 (18)
Depreciation (122) (120) (87) (124) 39 (2) (487) (342) 43 (585) (487) 20
EBIT 1,959 1,753 1,662 2,409 12 18 (19) 9,081 7,657 19 7,280 9,081 (20)
Interest (111) (57) (53) (112) 110 (1) (446) (143) 212 (392) (446) (12)
Profit before tax 1,847 1,696 1,609 2,297 9 15 (20) 8,635 7,514 15 6,888 8,635 (20)
Tax expense (459) (440) (634) (586) (2,257) (2,702) (1,766) (2,257)
Net profit 1,388 1,256 975 1,711 10 42 (19) 6,377 4,812 33 5,122 6,377 (20)
Exceptional items — — — — — — — —
Reported PAT 1,388 1,256 975 1,711 10 42 (19) 6,377 4,812 33 5,122 6,377 (20)
Key ratios (%)
Operating expenses/ Sales 57.9 65.7 52.7 63.8 63.1 50.7 64.6 63.1
Employee exp./ Sales 10.6 9.5 8.7 8.4 8.9 9.4 9.4 8.9
Other exp./ Sales 11.6 7.4 24.7 5.7 7.2 20.6 7.4 7.2
EBITDA margin 20.0 17.4 14.0 22.1 20.7 19.3 18.7 20.7
PBT Margin 22.6 21.4 20.4 25.6 25.3 25.4 20.0 25.3
Tax rate 24.9 25.9 39.4 25.5 26.1 36.0 25.6 26.1
PAT Margin 17.0 15.8 12.4 19.1 18.7 16.2 14.9 18.7
EPS 10.6 9.6 7.4 13.0 48.5 36.6 38.9 48.5
Exhibit 2: Strong growth witnessed in ship building; margins witnessed improvement in both ship building and ship repair
Quarterly segmental financials of Cochin Shipyard, March fiscal year-end, 4QFY20 (Rs mn)
% change
4QFY20 4QFY20E 4QFY19 3QFY20 vs est. yoy qoq FY2020 FY2019 % change FY2021E FY2020 % change
Net sales
Shipbuilding 7,126 6,342 6,617 7,474 12 8 (5) 28,500 21,302 34 28,773 28,500 1
Ship repair 1,041 1,587 1,259 1,487 (34) (17) (30) 5,694 8,320 (32) 5,694 5,694 —
Total 8,167 7,930 7,876 8,961 3 4 (9) 34,194 29,622 15 34,467 34,194 1
EBIT
Shipbuilding 2,132 1,810 1,752 18 6,647 4,450 49 6,647
Ship repair 290 (71) 199 (511) 1,470 2,373 (38) 1,470
Total 2,422 1,740 1,951 39 8,117 6,823 19 8,117
Exhibit 3: Existing order book in shipbuilding provides visibility on strong segmental growth over
FY2019-23E
Break-up of revenues from various shipbuilding projects, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-22E (Rs bn)
Exhibit 4: IAC and ASW Corvette orders account for dominant share; backlog provides five years of
visibility on trailing shipbuilding segment revenues
Details of shipbuilding and ship repair orders, March fiscal year-ends (Rs bn)
Exhibit 5: We expect 12% topline CAGR for Cochin Shipyard over FY2020-23E
Segmental revenue break-up for Cochin Shipyard, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-23E (Rs bn)
Exhibit 6: Production disruption and delays in capex and running projects led to earnings cut for FY2021
Change in estimates of Cochin Shipyard, March fiscal year-ends, 2018-22E (Rs mn)
New estimates Old estimates Change (%)
2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2021E 2022E 2021E
Segmental revenues
Shipbuilding 17,277 21,252 28,500 28,773 38,359 36,784 36,654 (22)
Ship repair 6,233 8,320 5,694 5,694 7,687 7,488 10,109 (24)
Other operating income 42 50 — — — 50 50
Income statement
Net revenues 23,551 29,622 34,194 34,467 46,046 44,321 46,813 (22)
Total operating expenses (18,900) (23,904) (27,106) (28,029) (37,494) (35,895) (38,004)
EBITDA 4,651 5,717 7,088 6,438 8,551 8,427 8,809 (24)
Other income 1,850 2,281 2,479 1,426 1,299 2,360 2,031
Depreciation & Amortization (375) (342) (487) (585) (1,214) (462) (1,594)
EBIT 6,126 7,657 9,081 7,280 8,637 10,325 9,247 (29)
Interest expense (119) (143) (446) (392) (392) (383) (383)
PBT 6,007 7,514 8,635 6,888 8,245 9,942 8,864
Tax expense (2,081) (2,702) (2,257) (1,766) (2,114) (2,549) (2,273)
Recurring PAT 3,926 4,812 6,377 5,122 6,130 7,392 6,591 (31)
Exceptional items 41 — — — — — —
Reported PAT 3,968 4,812 6,377 5,122 6,130 7,392 6,591 (31)
Recurring EPS (Rs/share) 29.8 36.6 48.5 38.9 46.6 56.2 50.1 (31)
Growth (%)
Revenue 14.4 25.8 15.4 0.8 33.6 30.5 5.6
EBITDA 20.7 22.9 24.0 (9.2) 32.8 21.1 4.5
PAT 22.2 22.6 32.5 (19.7) 19.7 17.6 (10.8)
Ratios
EBITDA margin (%) 19.7 19.3 20.7 18.7 18.6 19.0 18.8
PBT margin (%) 25.5 25.4 25.3 20.0 17.9 22.4 18.9
PAT margin (%) 16.7 16.2 18.7 14.9 13.3 16.7 14.1
Exhibit 7: Strong backlog and commissioning of the ISRF and other facilities will drive growth for Cochin Shipyard over the next few years
Summary financials of Cochin Shipyard, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-23E (Rs mn)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Income statement
Net revenues 17,979 15,833 19,900 20,589 23,551 29,622 34,194 34,467 46,046 49,066
Total operating expenses (13,808) (14,934) (15,976) (16,734) (18,900) (23,904) (27,106) (28,029) (37,494) (40,050)
EBITDA 4,171 899 3,924 3,854 4,651 5,717 7,088 6,438 8,551 9,017
Other income 611 772 1,069 1,583 1,850 2,281 2,479 1,426 1,299 900
Depreciation & Amortization (253) (377) (372) (385) (375) (342) (487) (585) (1,214) (2,009)
Interest expense (198) (189) (125) (122) (119) (143) (446) (392) (392) (392)
PBT 4,331 1,105 4,497 4,931 6,007 7,514 8,635 6,888 8,245 7,516
Tax expense (1,513) (412) (1,579) (1,719) (2,081) (2,702) (2,257) (1,766) (2,114) (1,927)
Recurring PAT 2,818 693 2,918 3,212 3,926 4,812 6,377 5,122 6,130 5,588
Exceptional items (0) (1) (0) 3 41 — — — — -
Reported PAT 2,818 693 2,918 3,216 3,968 4,812 6,377 5,122 6,130 5,588
Recurring EPS (Rs/share) 21.4 5.3 22.2 24.4 29.8 36.6 48.5 38.9 46.6 42.5
Balance sheet
Shareholders' funds 14,896 15,539 18,242 20,286 32,559 33,321 37,318 40,574 44,675 48,030
Minority interest — — — — — — — — — -
Debt 3,339 1,230 1,230 1,230 1,230 1,230 1,230 1,230 1,230 -
Deferred tax liabilities (163) (237) (322) (243) (433) (657) (464) (464) (464) (464)
Total sources of funds 18,072 16,533 19,150 21,273 33,356 33,893 38,084 41,340 45,442 47,567
Net fixed assets 3,777 3,829 3,944 4,245 4,638 7,157 15,244 19,659 26,030 29,352
Net working capital (ex-cash and customer advances) 13,550 5,059 4,722 3,771 7,375 9,320 11,757 12,429 14,375 7,996
Customer advances (balance liability) (4,822) (6,552) (7,721) (6,658) (13,725) (8,416) (11,330) (10,890) (7,978)
Investments 2 2 1 1 164 604 654 654 654 654
Cash and bank balances and current investments 5,564 14,195 18,204 19,913 34,903 25,229 21,759 19,487 12,361 9,564
Total application of funds 18,072 16,533 19,150 21,273 33,356 33,893 38,084 41,340 45,442 47,566
Free cash flow
Operating profit before working capital changes 4,493 926 3,953 4,039 4,925 6,038 7,906 6,646 8,759 9,224
Change in working capital/other adjustments (9,452) 6,456 (2,219) (416) 2,949 (8,515) (3,574) (1,112) (4,858) (1,599)
Direct taxes paid (net of refunds) (884) (749) (1,334) (1,500) (1,561) (2,006) (1,806) (1,766) (2,114) (1,927)
Net cashflow from operating activites (5,842) 6,634 401 2,123 6,313 (4,483) 2,526 3,768 1,787 5,698
Fixed assets (208) (400) (461) (701) (744) (2,837) (4,626) (5,000) (7,585) (5,331)
Cash (used)/realised in investing activities 152 155 467 648 (13,283) 10,437 (738) (3,781) (6,493) (4,639)
Free cash flow (CFO + net capex) (6,050) 6,235 (61) 1,422 5,570 (7,320) (2,100) (1,232) (5,797) 367
Ratios
EBITDA margin (%) 23.2 5.7 19.7 18.7 19.7 19.3 20.7 18.7 18.6 18.4
PBT margin (%) 24.1 7.0 22.6 23.9 25.5 25.4 25.3 20.0 17.9 15.3
PAT margin (%) 15.7 4.4 14.7 15.6 16.7 16.2 18.7 14.9 13.3 11.4
Book value per share (Rs) 113.2 118.1 138.7 154.2 247.5 253.3 283.7 308.5 339.6 365.1
RoAE (%) 20.8 4.6 17.3 16.7 14.9 14.6 18.1 13.2 14.4 12.1
Post-tax RoIC ex-CWIP (%) 19.0 2.5 26.8 28.4 30.5 28.8 30.1 22.5 18.2 12.5
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which Kotak
Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has provided
50% 47.1%
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not
strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.
Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.