January 19, 2011 - Wednesday

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ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION

GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
DISCLOSURES REVIEW_Week 03_TD013_January 19, 2011_Wednesday
source: www.pse.com.ph

HOLCIM PHILIPPINES, INC [pse: HLCM] LAST TRADE 13.20 MARKET CAP 83,877,288,872.00
Disc. No. 2011-0470 REOPENED PLANT 52-WK HIGH 17.00 OUT SHARES 6,452,099,144
The Company confirms it has recommissioned its
52-WK LOW 4.25 DIV YIELD % (5yr Average) -
Calaca, Batangas plant in anticipation of increased
PE [TTM] 21.21 2010 EPS (annualized) 0.76
demand on the back of a more robust private and
public construction spending. Almost php63 million SECTOR PE 24.89 EPS GRWTH %-3yrs 17.17
were spent to rehabilitate the plant, mothballed in PRICE-TO-BOOK 4.39 BOOK VALUE 3.00
1999, as well as to install modern operating systems SUPPORT 12.70 STO (10,3) 21.50
and new equipment. A new vessel was likewised RESISTANCE 15.00 RSI (14) 44.95
leased to transport cement from its Misamis Oriental TECHNICAL ACTION MEDIUM TERM BUY OBV TREND Neutral/Sideways
plant. PRICE TARGET 19.00 BETA vs PSEI 0.92

The stock remains locked in a downtrend traced back to its


December 2, 2010 intraday and closing high of php17.00 and
php16.20, respectively. Even as it rose above the primary
downtrend line towards the end of the year, momentum
dissipated soon enough and the price failed to even match the
earlier mentioned points, drawing yet another downtrend. A brief
surge in yesterday's trades, possibly spurred by the above news,
failed to hold and the break above both 10pd and 50pdEMA's
sputtered. Worse, the shorter EMA appears poised to pierce
through the other line in a southern heading – a SELL signal, on
its own. However, enough mometum may have built up to gather
up interest in the coming days as STO emerges out of the
oversold area and at the same time breaks over the trigger line.
This forward positive momentum is supplanted by readings off
the MACD which shows a general dissipation of negative
pressure, indicated by the narrowing negative gap. Volumes
remain low, however, extending the buy outlook to at least
medium term. The weight of the bears, pushing the price closer
to its opening level and low, and alternatively drawing a large gap
from its high for the session, provides the challenge as the stock
possibly moves into an accumulative mode. MEDIUM-TERM
BUY

AYALA LAND, INC [pse: ALI] LAST TRADE 15.10 MARKET CAP 204,987,742,970.00
Disc. No. 2011-0467 P10B NOTES RAISED 52-WK HIGH 18.70 OUT SHARES 13,023,363,594
The Company confirmed reports it has raised php10 52-WK LOW 9.90 DIV YIELD % (5yr Average) 3.71
billion via the issuance of multi-tenored notes at various PE [TTM] 40.99 2010 EPS (annualized) 0.40
interest rates to primary insitutional lenders. The funds SECTOR PE 29.87 EPS GRWTH %-3yrs 5.82
rasied are broken down into php5.7 billion 5-yr Notes at PRICE-TO-BOOK 3.67 BOOK VALUE 4.11
5.625%, php3.3 billion 10-yr Notes at 6.875% and SUPPORT 13.50 STO (10,3) 22.86
php1.0 billion 15-yr Notes at 7.50%. This is the Ayala- RESISTANCE 15.70 RSI (14) 33.76
units largest fundraising initiative to-date. The TECHNICAL ACTION SELL OBV TREND Negative Bias
issuance was 75% oversubscribed.
PRICE TARGET - BETA vs PSEI 1.19

ALI shares has been in the hands of the bear since September
last year when it peaked at php18.70. Succeeding peaks have
been lower, and so have the troughs been. The year-to-date
chart leaves no room for doubt it has been the favorite of the
bear's pawing, losing -8.26% compared to the market's -3.85%
slide. Price is trading below its 150pdEMA (php15.70) which
serves as the strongest resistance. All other indicators points
unmistakably to a SELL, particularly as, and if, it experiences a
technical rebound.

The fundamentals tell a different story. As of the end of Q3


2010, annualized EPS has already surpassed 2009 levels. It's
relatively high TTM PE is reflective of investors' vote-of-
confidence on the prospects of the frim. Given all the data
above, in fact, the minimum price target for the stock, ceteris
paribus, is at php17.40, which puts current levels at a 13%
discount. Timing the purchases however, is the key to
expanding the potential margins.SELL ON RALLY

DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE
AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE
INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR CO MPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON
AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF
THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR
INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
DAILY Report Page 1 of 2
ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
DISCLOSURES REVIEW_Week 03_TD013_January 19, 2011_Wednesday
source: www.pse.com.ph

SAN MIGUEL CORPORATION [pse: SMC] LAST TRADE 169.90 MARKET CAP 390,118,085,449.00
Disc. No. 2011-0459 US$ BOND ISSUANCE 52-WK HIGH 189.50 OUT SHARES 2,308,385,121
The reconfigured conglomerate's wholly owned
52-WK LOW 66.55 DIV YIELD % (5yr Average) 1.97
subsidiary, SMC Global Power Holdings Corporation,
has taken the first step in its planned 5 yr US$ bond PE [TTM] 19.77 2010 EPS (annualized) 4.81
issuance to raise funds needed to finance power- SECTOR PE 22.36 EPS GRWTH %-3yrs 43.73
related assets, finance payments or prepayment of its PRICE-TO-BOOK 1.60 BOOK VALUE 106.19
subsidiaries' obligations to PSALM and for general SUPPORT 157.00 STO (10,3) 52.52
corporate purposes. San Miguel Energy Corporation RESISTANCE 175.00 RSI (14) 59.06
(SMEC), Strategic Power Development Corporation TECHNICAL ACTION SELL OBV TREND Neutral
(SPDC) and South Premiere Power Corporation PRICE TARGET - BETA vs PSEI 0.56
(SPPC) all have Independent Power Producer
Agremeents with PSALM. The issue will be applied for listing at the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited. The offering will
not include the US, the Philippines and any other jurisdictions where such an offeringi is restricted or prohibited.

Following a two-month surge which saw its share price rise from
php75 to as much as php189.50, it has met a balance of profit-
takers and bettors on a further advance. The indecision reached
its apex Friday last week and was resolved in favor of the bears
entering this week. Price has fallen below the short-term EMA,
which itself has turned its heading southwards. Both medium
and long term EMA's however, continue to rise. The first SELL
signal was given early this year as STO (10,6) fell under the
trigger line, followed by a drop below the overbought 80-line in
the following session. The momentum indicator has fallen since,
ending yesterday with a reading of 52.52. Three days ago, the
MACD line made a decisive downside penetration of the signal
line, compounding the SELL signal even more. The gap
continues to widen. The AccDist line has shifted gears from a
consolidation mode at the top to a more defined distributive bias.
Given all these technical readings, our stance on the issue
favors a SELL.

DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE
AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE
INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR CO MPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON
AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF
THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR
INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
DAILY Report Page 2 of 2

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