1
Electrical Load Forecasting Techniques
employed in Power Sector of Pakistan
(1) Danial Saleem, Deputy Manager NTDC Lahore.
(2) Tauseef ur Rehman Khan, Deputy Manager NTDC Lahore.
(3) Shahid Abbas, Staff Economist NTDC Lahore.
Abstract — This paper elaborates different methodologies used
in National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC)
Pakistan for electrical energy and power demand forecast i.e.
Regression Analysis and Power Market Survey (PMS). It includes
forecasting both energy and peak power demand for Pakistan’s
power system. Forecast energy and power demands with high
precision is highly significant; an underestimation will result in
load shedding and an overestimation will cause overinvestment.
For regression analysis, top-down econometric technique of
Ordinary Least Square is applied at disaggregate level i.e.
domestic, commercial, industrial and agriculture sector to forecast
energy consumption. PMS methodology is categorized as bottom
up approach, i.e. energy and power demands are forecasted from
11kV feeder level, DISCO level and finally aggregated for NTDC
level. The comparison between the two methodologies is presented
in the paper as well. Moreover, the forecasted demand is
compared with actual demand experienced historically.
Index Terms— Regression, Forecast, Power Market Survey,
Power Demand, Energy Demand, Elasticity, etc.
I. INTRODUCTION
E lectricity is considered as backbone for economic growth,
progress and prosperity thus it plays a key role in the socio-
economic development of a country. Nowadays electricity
is being considered an engine of economic growth at both
national and global level. It has drawn great attention due to
increase in population, urbanization and industrialization. No
one can even imagine enjoying a luxurious life without
electricity. Investments of worth billions are required for the
generation, transmission and distribution of electricity.
Therefore, it is the need of hour to predict more accurate
required amount of energy with least possible errors.
Saurabh Singh et al., (2017) conducted a study to forecast short
term electricity demand using Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
for New England covering the period 2004 to 2008 and found
that there is difference in load pattern for working days and
weekend days considering various input parameter such as
hourly temperature, humidity, hour of the day, previous week
same day same hour same load and day of the week. To measure
the accuracy of forecasting technique they use Mean Absolute
Percentage Error (MAPE) and concluded that there is 1.38%
MAPE for working days and 1.39% MAPE for weekend days
which depicts good forecasting and less error.
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Vasudev Delaware et al.,(2016) explore the Electricity Load
Forecasting for Urban Area using weather forecast information.
They use and compare Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and
Bagged Regression Trees based forecasting considering
weather as independent variable for urban load forecast and
concluded that latter forecasting technique provides better
results than earlier.
Tao Hong and Pu Wang (2012) conducted a study on the Impact
of Demand Response: Load Shedding, Energy Conservation,
and Further Implications to Load Forecasting covering the
period from 2005 to 2008 to find a) how load profile changes
due to demand response activities b) how much annual energy
can be saved due to demand response activities and c) for a
utility, will load forecast be affected by demand response or
not? Results showed that demand response has an impact on the
peak demand but not significantly save the annual sale of a
utility. Hence load forecast can be improved apart from the
hours affected by demand response.
Rob J. Hyndman and Shu Fan (2010) explored density
forecasting for Long-Term peak electricity demand for south
Australia considering various demographic variable such as
residential population, number of households, persons per
household, and economic variables such as Consumer Price
Index, household per capita disposable income and average
electricity prices.
Zakaria Rahman et al., (2016) predicted the long term energy
demand of Bangladesh from 2011 to 2040 considering energy
demand as dependent variable and population growth, GDP per
capita, prices of oil and lagged electricity consumption as
explanatory variables by using exponential smoothing method.
It is imperative to forecast energy demand with high precision;
an underestimation can cause insufficiency which may further
consequence poor services to general public, an overestimation
can cause the commitment of overinvestment. A developing
country like Pakistan hardly has enough resources to cover the
cost of energy sector, which is one of the most expensive sector.
Therefore, forecasting of electricity demand is crucial and a
sensitive issue and needs high degree of accuracy to avoid any
insufficiency and over-commitment of limited resources.
Good forecast helps planners to arrange economic resources for
generation of electricity, considering the following important
three questions; i) how much to generate, ii) when to generate
and iii) from where to generate electricity. In Pakistan,
unfortunately government policies are not consistent and
change drastically within a short span of time. When
government changes a policy, it leads to a change in the

allocation of resources, which creates uncertainty and fear
among investors and stakeholders. Therefore, keep in view the
Pakistan’s inconsistency in policies a medium term forecast for
the period of relatively lesser years is necessary. Hence a ten
year energy and demand forecast is prepared which caters the
abrupt changes due to change in policies.
II. REGRESSION METHODOLOGY
A. The Data
At first, a huge database has been developed encompassing data
regarding electricity sector and economics variables. The data
base consists of GDP by sectors, i.e. agriculture, industrial and
services sector. Tariff-category wise electricity consumption,
tariff-category wise price of electricity, tariff-category wise
customers, load shedding data of DISCOs & K-Electric,
Consumer Price Index (CPI) and population etc. As historically,
there has been load shedding in the country, so the electricity
consumption data includes an estimate of the unserved energy
to reflect the total demand. The above data has been collected
from Economic Survey of Pakistan, Power System Statistics
and various other sources from the year 1970 up to 2013.
B. The Methodology
The long-term load forecast is carried out by regression analysis
of electricity consumption trends, relationships with electricity
price, GDP, population and number of customers using
historical data pertaining to period 1970-2013.
A detailed regression analysis involves the review of
fundamental quantitative relationships between the
consumption of electricity and the independent variables of the
equation like electricity price, sector’s GDP, and population of
Pakistan etc. For this model the impact of historical load
management (load shedding) is included in the data base, so the
resulting equations estimate the actual energy demand.
The electricity consumption of Pakistan is segregated in four
different sectors, i.e. domestic, commercial, industrial and
agriculture. These four sectors have different patterns of
consumption during the year. Hence, they are forecasted
separately. The forecast of these four sectors are then combined
to form the forecast of total electrical energy demand. In order
to forecast the annual consumption of electricity up to 2040, a
multiple regression model is used. The dependent variable in
the regression model is electricity energy sale of the respective
category. Whereas, the independent variables for each category
are:
x Annual GDP and its components i.e. agriculture sector,
industrial sector and services sector
x Tariff-wise electricity prices i.e. domestic, commercial,
agriculture and industrial.
x Lag of consumption of electricity
Four equations are proposed for each category of electricity
consumption. For statistical analysis, EVIEWS software is
used. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique is selected for the
estimation of regression equation. We use log on both sides of
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2
the equation to get elasticity in the percentage form, in order to
get easy to interpret and standardized results. Various statistical
tests have been performed to establish the significance of the
relationship among the dependent variables and the
independent variables.
After thorough statistical analysis using EVIEWS the
appropriate elasticity coefficients are selected for all the four
equations. Following are the regression equations of each
category:
‫ ܵܦ‬ൌ ߚ଴ ൅ ߚଵ ܶ‫ܲܦܩ‬௧ ൅ ߚଶ ‫ܴܲܧܮܧܦ‬௧ ൅ ߚଷ ‫ܮܵܦ‬௧ ൅ H௧ ሺͳሻ
‫ ܵܥ‬ൌ ߚଶ ൅ ߚଵ ‫ܲܦܩܥ‬௧ ൅ ߚଶ ‫ܴܲܧܮܧܥ‬௧ ൅ ߚଷ ‫ܮܵܥ‬௧ ൅ H௧ ሺʹሻ
‫ ܵܫ‬ൌ ߚ଴ ൅ ߚଵ ‫ܲܦܩܫ‬௧ ൅ ߚଶ ‫ܴܲܧܮܧܫ‬௧ ൅ ߚଷ ‫ܮܵܫ‬௧ ൅ H௧ ሺ͵ሻ
‫ ܵܣ‬ൌ ߚ଴ ൅ ߚଵ ‫ܲܦܩܣ‬௧ ൅ ߚଶ ‫ܴܲܧܮܧܣ‬௧ ൅ ߚଷ ‫ܮܵܣ‬௧ ൅ H௧ ሺͶሻ
Where, the above terms are given in Table I below:
Table I: Description of Terms
DS Consumption of electricity in domestic sector (GWh)
CS Consumption of electricity in commercial sector (GWh)
IS Consumption of electricity in industrial sector (GWh)
AS Consumption of electricity in agriculture sector (GWh)
TGDPt Total GDP at constant prices in local currency unit
CGDPt Contribution of services sector in total GDP
IGDPt Contribution of industrial sector in total GDP
AGDPt Contribution of agriculture sector in total GDP
DELERPt Real prices of electricity in domestic sector Rs./kWh
CELERPt Real prices of electricity in commercial sector Rs./kWh
IELERPt Real prices of electricity in industrial sector Rs./kWh
AELERPt Real prices of electricity in agriculture sector Rs./kWh
DSL Lag of domestic sales (GWh)
CSL Lag of commercial sales (GWh)
ISL Lag of industrial sales (GWh)
ASL Lag of ariculture sales (GWh)
B0 drift component
Ht white noise random error
After getting these elasticities, we convert these short-term
elasticities into long term elasticities for obtaining better result,
using the following formula:
Long-term elasticity = Short-term elasticity/ (1- lag elasticity)
….. (5)
On the other hand, growth rates for independent variables such
as total GDP, electricity price are projected based on the past
data. The long term elasticities and the projected independent
variables’ growth rate are then used to develop the long term
energy forecast of each category using the equation below.
‫ܵܦ‬௧ ൌ ‫ܵܦ‬௧ିଵ ‫ כ‬ሺͳ ൅ ‫ܲܦܩܴܶܩ‬ሻୟ ‫ כ‬ሺͳ ൅ ‫ܴܲܦܴܩ‬ሻୠ ‫ כ‬ሺͳ ൅
‫ܵܦܴܩ‬௧ିଵ ሻୡ  … (6)
In the above equation, DSt depicts consumption of electricity
(GWh) in current year by domestic sector, whereas previous
year consumption of electricity in domestic sector is shown by
DSt-1. GRTGDP represents growth rate of total GDP, while
GRDRP reflects growth rate of electricity tariff in domestic
 3

sector and GRDSt-1 explains growth rate of domestic

consumption of electricity in previous year. Elasticities of
independent variables GDP, Real Price and Lag are shown by
a, b and c respectively.

To ensure the suitability of model, the stability and diagnostic

of the model are also tested. CUSUM (Cumulative Sum of
Squares) statistics are updated and plotted against the break
points. If the plots of CUSUM of square statistics stay within
the 5% level of significance, the test finds the parameter
stability. The diagnostic test shows model is free from serial
correlation and heteroscedasticity. We apply Jarque-Bera
statistics to test the normality of residuals. Jarque-Bera statistics
fails to reject the null hypothesis that applies residuals are
normally distributed with zero mean and constant variance. The
results of Cumulative Sum of Squares and 5% level of
significance as well as Diagnostic Test Statistics extracted from
EViews are shown in Figure 1 and Table I below. Fig.2: Flowchart of Regression Methodology

1.4 III. PMS METHODOLOGY

1.2 Power Market Survey (PMS) is a methodology used to develop
1.0
spatial forecast for the electrical energy and peak demand for
the period of ten years. These spatial forecasts of all areas
0.8 coming under the jurisdiction of a respective Distribution
0.6 Company (DISCO) are then accumulated to develop the
forecast of a DISCO. Further the forecasts of all DISCOs are
0.4
accumulated to develop the forecast of the whole country.
0.2 Eventually, this forecast is used for distribution network
0.0 planning, transmission network expansion planning, generation
capacity expansion planning as well as distributed generation
-0.2
planning and so on.
-0.4
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 A. Data Setting
CUSUM of Squares 5% Significance
This methodology is categorized as bottom up approach.
Electrical energy sales data of the six categories; i.e. domestic,
Fig.1: Cumulative Sum of Squares and 5% level of significance commercial, small industries, medium and large industries,
agriculture and public lighting of all the 11kV feeders of an area
is collected. The area is defined as the service area where the
Table I: Diagnostic Test Statistics in EViews electricity is supplied by a single 132/11kV substation. The
energy sales of the same category of all the feeders are then
Diagnostic Test Statistics added which gives the total consumption of all six categories of
Serial correlation (F)2 0.3760 an area and the peak demand of each category is calculated by
Heteroscedasticity (F)2 0.3388 applying the following formula:
Normality (F)2 0.7988
‫ܵܧ‬
ܲ‫ ܦ‬ൌ ǥሺ͹ሻ
‫ כ ܨܮ‬ͺ͹͸Ͳ
The forecast results of the four categories are combined to Where;
calculate the sale forecast. After projecting sale of electricity, Peak demand is shown by PD whereas ES shows energy sale
distribution losses at 132/11 kV and Transmission Losses of specific category and LF represents Load Factor and 8760
500/220 kV according to the loss reduction plan of respective is the no. of hours in a year.
DISCOs and NTDC are added to get required generation
(GWh). In order to convert the energy into peak demand load Load factors for small industries, agriculture and public lighting
factor is calculated from energy generated to peak demand of are generic and fixed. They are computed by conducting a
the base year. That load factor remains constant for future years. survey. The details of the survey are described at the end of this
That projected load factor is then used alongwtih projected section. Whereas, the load factor for medium and large
energy generation to forecast the peak demand (MW). industries is the actual calculated with the maximum demand
and energy sales of medium and large industries category.
The flowchart of Regression Methodology is shown in Figure 2
below.

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Loss of energy during transmission and distribution of
electricity is an integral part. Certain amount of losses are
bound to occur. So in this forecast methodology the distribution
and transmission losses are also considered to have a realistic
forecast at the end. For this purpose, first the ratio between
energy sales of the DISCO and the Distribution losses is
calculated. Then while equating the peak demand of a
substation with peak demand of all categories this percentage
of loss is added to account for the distribution losses occurred.
Although, the distribution losses of each substation are different
but applying the exact value of losses on all the substations
would make the calculations more cumbersome and the impact
on the final outcome will be supposedly insignificant. So to
keep the calculations simple the overall percentage of
distribution losses with sales is applied on all the substations.
This percentage of distribution losses are also adjusted for the
load shedding by adding the percentage of energy not served to
it, since more the energy is served more would be the losses.
At the same time the recorded value of peak demand of each
substation is taken from the AMR meters installed there. The
peak demand of each category along with losses is then related
with peak demand of the substation by applying the following
equation:
Peak Demand Substation = (Peak Demand Domestic + Peak Demand
Commercial + Peak Demand Medium & Large
Industries + Peak Demand Small
Industries + Peak Demand Agriculture +
Peak Demand Public Lights) *
Coincidence Factor Between categories *
(%age of Distribution Losses w.r.t to
Sale) …. (8)
This coincidence factor between categories is also calculated by
the survey mentioned above. The peak demand of the DISCO
is recorded by the AMR meters. This peak demand is related
with the peak demand of substations by applying the followng
equation:
Peak Demand DISCO = (Peak Demand Substation1 + Peak Demand
2 3
Substation + Peak Demand Substation + - - -
n
- - + Peak Demand Substation ) *
Coincidence Factor Between Substations
.................. (9)
The coincidence factor between the substations is calculated by
applying the equation 9. Similarly, the peak demand of the
system is recorded. This peak demand is related with the peak
demand of DISCO by applying the following equation:
Peak Demand System = (Peak Demand DISCO1 + Peak Demand
2 3
DISCO + Peak Demand DISCO + - - - - -
n
+ Peak Demand DISCO ) * Coincidence
Factor Between DISCO
……....... (10)
A survey is conducted every five years where load factors of
each category and the diversity factors between the categories
of a substation is observed. The substations are classified into
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4
three categories, a) urban, b) town and c) rural. Urban areas are
the most developed areas lying in a DISCO, where there is
immene commecial activity, the domestic consumers have
ample buying power and the per capita consumtion of electricty
is quite high as compared to rest of the areas. The town areas
were moderately dveloped area and rural area are the less
developed area of a DSICO.
For load factor calculations of agriculture sector, some
predominantly agruculture load feeders are selected. Their
energy sale and peak demand over a period of a year is recorded
and then load factor is calculated by using the following
equation:
Load Factor = Energy Sale/Peak Demand * 8760 ….. (11)
This process is repeated for other two categories to get their
load factor. For coincidence factor calculations, those
substations are sampled out where there is a good mixture of all
six categories. Then they divided into urban, town and rural
category depending upon which type of area these substations
are feeding. Then the coicidence between the peak demand of
all feeders and the peak demand of the substation is observed
and hence the value of coincidence factor is calculated by using
the following equation:
Coincidence Factor (Urban/Town/Rural) = Peak Demand of Substation
/ Sum of Individual Peak Demands
(Urban/Town/Rural) of all
Feeders ….. (12)
In this calculation, it is assumed that a single feeder is supplying
power to a single category consumers. The values finalized for
of Load Factor of agriculture, small industries and public
lighting categories and Coincidence factors between peak
demand of catogories and peak demand of urban, town and rural
substations are tabulated below:
Table III: Load Factors
Small Public
Agriculture
Industries Lighing
Load
40% 30% 20%
Factor
Table IV: Coincidence Factors
Urban Town Rural
Coincidence
70% 60% 50%
Factor
Load shedding or energy not served has remained the chronic
problem of Pakistan’s power sector with varied degree since its
inception. Load shedding or the energy not served is the energy
that has not been served to the consumer due to any deficiency
in the power sector for example lack of generation capacity,
lack of transmission or distribution capability, faults etc. It is
very evident that had this energy not served would have been
supplied the sale of energy and the peak demand would have
been higher. So this methodology has been enabled to cater the
load shedding as well. Although it is not possible to predict that
how much energy the consumer would have been consuming
 5

had been supplied. So some calculated estimates had to be made Peak Demand = Energy Sale year 1 / Load Factor *8760
in order to quantify the energy not served. ………….. (13)

In the Pakistan’s power system, the energy not served or load The results from equation 13 is then used in equation 8 to get
shedding is estimated in this way that when an 11kV feeder is the next year peak demand of a substation. Then the results from
tripped or switched off at that moment the instant value of equation 8 are then used in equation 9 to get the peak demand
power is noted and it is assumed that the instant value of power of a DISCO. Finally, the results from equation 9 are then used
at the moment of tripping or switching off will remain constant in equation 10 to get the peak demand of a system.
till the moment it is switched on. The figure below elaborates
the method of quantifying the energy not served. It is important to mention here the considered assumption, i.e.,
the load factors and the coincidence factors mentioned in the
The energy not served of all the feeders is then added to base year data will remain constant for the ten year period of
calculate the total energy not served of a DISCO. Then the ratio forecasting.
between the energy sale of a DISCO and the energy not served
is calculated. Finally, the energy sales of all the feeders are
The flowchart of Regression Methodology is shown in Figure
enhanced by this ratio. Although the load shedding of each
3.
feeder is different but applying different value of energy not
served on all the feeders would make the calculations very PROCESS : PREPARATION OF MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
cumbersome and lengthy. Sales (GWh) Sales (GWh) Forecast
START Per customer DISCOs
Pending Load Forecast without with Load
growth rate Load Management
Load Management Management

Previously, the method of estimating the energy not served was Domestic Domestic Energy Sale (KWh)
Domestic
to consider the amount of energy served at the same date and Commercial Commercial Commercial Energy Sale (KWh)
time of the previous year. This method seems more precise DISCO Small Industry Small Industry Energy Sale (KWh)
Small Industry
although it does not cater the annual growth of load on that Energy Sale
(GWh)
M &L Industry M&L industry M&L industry Energy Sale (KWh)
particular 11kV feeder. However, since the load shedding in
Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Energy Sale (KWh)
Pakistan after 2005-06 became a constant problem so it was Public Light Public Light Energy Sale (KWh)
Public Light
observed that the particular 11kV feeder was also switched off
on the same date and time of the previous year, even three four
years back the feeders were found off on the same date and Required Energy
(GWh)

time. That is why this methodology was changed.

Transmission Distribution Losses
Load Factor Diversity Factor
Now the base year data is ready to be used in our forecasting Losses(132 kV) (11 kV)

model. For future values the two inputs are required; a) Growth
Rates and b) Pending Load. The growth rates of each category DISCO
Peak Demand (MW)
System Peak
Demand (MW)
END

are calculated from the 10 year historical categories-wise Fig.3: Flowchart of PMS Methodology
consumtion. The average compound growth rate is calculated
of all the categories which is then used for all ten years of The category-wise energy forecast using PMS is shown in
forecasting. Although the category-wise growth rate of each Figure 4.
feeder is different but applying different growth rates on all the
feeders would make the calculations very cumbersome and
lengthy.

The pending load is the committed load by the new consumers

in the area. These new consumers can be of any of the six
categories. This pending load data is prepared by looking at the
furture plans for the new housing colonies, commercial areas,
industrial zones etc in a partucular area. These future
development plans are transforemd into year-wise energy
requierment and they are accounted for in the future
calculations of the load of any particular area in the respective
year.
Fig.4: Category-wise energy forecast
B. Calculations:
After the data is prepared the following equations are used to
IV. COMPARISON
calculate the next year energy sales and peak demand of a
particular category of a substation.
In this section, the comparison between forecasted and actual
Energy Sale year 1 = (Energy Sale year 0 * Growth Rate) + load demands are presented, as discussed below:
Pending Load year 1

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 6

Figure 5: Comparison Between Actual Peak Demand (MW) and Forecasted

Figure 6: Comparison Between Actual Energy Consumption (GWh) and
Peak Demand (MW)
Forecasted Energy Consumption (GWh)

Table V: % Difference Between Actual Peak Demand (MW) Table VI: % Difference Between Actual Energy Consumption
and Forecasted Peak Demand (MW) (GWh) and Forecasted Energy Consumption (GWh)
Actual PMS % Regression % % %
Actual PMS Regression
(MW) (MW) Dev. (MW) Diff. Diff. Diff.
2013-14 19,966 20,888 5% 20,195 1% 2013-14 119,337 115,277 -3% 120,469 1%
2014-15 21,031 21,858 4% 21,171 1% 2014-15 124,395 121,761 -2% 126,296 2%
2015-16 22,559 22,880 1% 22,253 -1% 2015-16 132,851 128,885 -3% 132,747 -0.1%
2016-17 25,117 24,001 -4% 23,411 -7% 2016-17 136,847 136,504 -0.3% 139,655 2%
2017-18 26,031 25,137 -3% 24,741 -5%
2017-18 144,194 144,393 0.1% 147,591 2%
2018-19 24,987 26,294 5% 26,207 5%
2018-19 144,464 152,717 6% 156,335 8%
In the figure above, the comparison between actual peak
demand (MW) and forecasted peak demand (MW) is shown. It The comparison and the percentage difference between the
can be seen that the first and second year of forecast; i.e. 2013- actual energy consumption and the forecasted energy
14 and 2014-15 respectively, the actual demand is very close to consumption by both the methodologies is shown. It can be seen
the projected demand of both PMS based forecast and that the difference with the actual energy consumption is quite
Regression based forecast. The projected peak demand by PMS less which ranges from 0% to 3% for both the PMS forecast and
based methodology of first and second year is higher by 5% regression forecast in the first five years of projection. In the
percent and 4% percent respectively with the actual peak sixth year of projection, i.e. 2018-19, the difference is 6%
demand, whereas the projection with the regression based percent with the PMS forecast and 8% percent with the
methodology is higher by only 1% percent in both years. regression forecast, which is quite acceptable considering the
fact that this is the sixth year of forecast.
In the year 2015-16, the third year of projection, the PMS
forecast is higher by 1% with the actual and regression forecast V. CONCLUSION
is lower by 1% with the actual peak demand. In the fourth and This paper presents two approaches to forecast consumption of
fifth year of projection which are 2016-17 and 2017-18 electricity and peak demand. For regression analysis, Top-down
respectively, the actual peak demand went higher than the econometric technique of Ordinary Least Square is applied at
projected demands of both methodologies, 4% percent and 3% disaggregate level i.e. domestic, commercial, industrial and
percent respectively by PMS methodology and 7% and 5% agriculture sector to forecast energy consumption. The second
percent respectively by regression methodology. This could be approach is Power Market Survey (PMS) which is a bottom up
due to the reason that in these years the load shedding was
approach to forecast energy consumption and peak demand
considerably reduced and a rise in the economic was witnessed
from feeder level to system level. Although, methodologies are
in those years. In the sixth year of forecasting; i.e. 2018-19 the
projected demand is higher by 5% than the actual peak demand different in assumption and input parameters in software but
by both the PMS and regression methodologies. This is again these two different approaches are close in results and validate
very close keeping in view that this is the sixth year of results of each other. The comparison and the percentage
projection. difference between the actual energy consumption and the
forecasted energy consumption by both the methodologies is
demonstrated in above sections. It has been found that the
difference between forecasted and actual energy consumption
is quite less which ranges from 0% to 3% for both the PMS
forecast and regression forecast. This validates the
methodologies used in power sector of Pakistan.

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 7

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